TSLA: What Changed?

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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:30 am I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.

Image
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid
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GP813
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

Rare earth materials in EV's keeps being reduced by Japanese and U.S. automakers. And Japan as a nation showed how to ween yourself of Chinese reliance. The problem is that the EV segment is growing so fast overall. But as this become the profitable sector within Autos and the clear future more research and design dollars will flow into this segment and people will come up with new solutions.

Japan’s global rare earths quest holds lessons for the US and Europe

Toyota Develops New Magnet for Electric Motors Aiming to Reduce Use of Critical Rare-Earth Element by up to 50%


Factbox: Automakers cutting back on rare earth magnets
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

I just saw a Buick(General Motors) commercial on TV that painfully illustrates the bind legacy automakers are in. In the commercial the Buick driving dad kept saying how do you like my new Alexa(Amazon).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkrqnfE2fA
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TimeRunner
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by TimeRunner »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:46 pm I just saw a Buick(General Motors) commercial on TV that painfully illustrates the bind legacy automakers are in. In the commercial the Buick driving dad kept saying how do you like my new Alexa(Amazon).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkrqnfE2fA
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

impatientInv wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:22 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:30 am I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.

Image
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid

https://electrek.co/2022/05/06/tesla-li ... deal-vale/
Seems to be options outside of China. Nickel from seven companies and four countries. Looks like no single element comes solely from China. I'm good with that.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Both Ford and General Motors were downgraded by the bank on Wednesday as increasing raw material costs and macroeconomic factors decrease the attractiveness of EV efforts.

The market likely underestimates the permanency of recent raw material price increases ...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837319-g ... t-concerns

This was yesterday. The note said commodity shortage and inflation adding $10k + to battery cost. This is before EVs had an opportunity to scale up. EVs still only ~4% of US sales.

See the chart from previous post. 100% of Graphite is made in China, 80+% of cathode and anode is made there. China is the cheapest place for processing with no environment regulation and coal power. Lots of chemicals and water is used for extracting minerals. As these processing move to Europe and America's price will increase.

Image

PS: I want EVs to succeed, own a plugin hybrid. I believe path taken by Tesla is great short term for EV uptake, but bad long term for EV market.

The Tesla stock performance alone has forced rest of the industry to emulate it. Toyota, which I believe is the smartest automaker, preferred plugin EVs over EVs had to change as well. All due to shareholder pressure to emulate Tesla's stock performance.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Something to ponder. If TSLA stock grew 20% every year over the last 5 years, it would be at $250.

TSLA falling can unravel the whole market. I know their fans are many and have the faith. Hope it's not drastic. I am ~100% stocks, so am worried.

Q2 will be bad
Tesla Analyst Contradicts Elon Musk On China Lockdown Impact: 'Giga Shanghai Ramp-Up Unlikely Until June'
https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/27127800
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

4nursebee wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:09 am
impatientInv wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 pm China and companies in China own/control most of battery raw material mining and processing. They also produce most of the anode and cathode that go into battery cells.

It will be not be possible for Tesla to grow 50% every year without strong support/partnership from China. China would want most of this production to happen in China and by Chinese companies. BYD, CATL etc will control EV batteries, not Tesla IMO. Both have superior batteries vs Tesla (4680 is way behind schedule, specs have been diluted)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02 link works incognito
For the past 20 years, China has been buying up valuable resources around the world to supply its vast manufacturing industry. More critically still, even where it does not own the mines outright, it has secured deals that mean nearly 80 per cent of the planet’s supply of these crucial raw minerals is sent to China for cleaning up and processing into usable metals. From the Chinese refineries, the metals not needed by China’s own plants are then shipped off to factories in Europe, America and elsewhere.

This means that, theoretically at least, in the most important minerals for the future green economy — nickel, cobalt, graphite, lithium and so-called rare earth metals — China could effectively turn on, and turn off, the world’s supply at will.
Image
Wow, so much to "unpack" here:
1. This seems like more opinion than fact.
2. Please clarify (give evidence) superiority of BYD and CATL batteries.
3. Please clarify (evidence?) that 4680 is a) behind schedule and b) has diluted specs.
4. And I question the input data reliability, based upon a few minute internet search it appears that China is not a top producer of Ni: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264 ... y-country/
Heh, and China mines 100% of graphite? 100% is always a suspicious number. Five seconds of googling, and I see 62% instead.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:47 pm It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
Ah, I stand corrected... I guess we better start processing graphite.
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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

HomerJ wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:13 pm
impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:47 pm It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
Ah, I stand corrected... I guess we better start processing graphite.
A graphite shortage is no big deal. We can just convert diamonds to graphite :happy :idea:
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Ok, so here's the thing with "China wants" comments. What I read into this as implied threat for China to control everything and raise prices. But in a world of demand/supply curves, at certain price points competition is stimulated. There might be short term fluctuations or manipulations, all these do is increase market entrants.

Another point is that any individual component can only affect the final car price so much. If there were say one pound of element X in a battery pack, doubling the price of X would minimally impact the final car price.

Also, any price issues due to market control would impact every product. Perhaps this could be said to favor ICE vehicles. But if the price control were to come from China and impact consumer behaviour, China could influence pricing back down. China leadership is already known to be exceptionally pro EV!

On 4680 cells, I do not recall TSLA ever laying out a specific timeline. So, they are not late. 4680 cells have been produced, are in cars, and have capacity being built out.

My suggestion for anyone concerned about 4680 so claimed delays to take a look at the battery day presentation. Then make your own mind up about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds


And for those that like arguing I will put in a PSA for the following video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTN9Nx8VYtk
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Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

impatientInv wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:22 pm Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid
Tesla is pretty darn good at managing their supply chain needs as evidenced by their continued growth while most other OEMs had to cut productions due to chip shortages. They realized like 20 years ago how many batteries are needed for their EV future and have kept this in their mind forever. They've held onto their 20M EV goal (not a promise) in 2030 and Tesla realizes how many batteries and earth minerals are needed for this goal. They're aiming for 3TWh needed in 2030 and they know the materials just don't magically appear. In their earnings calls, they realize all this and have asked mining companies to get more minerals out of the ground. If they can't, they're going to partner with them directly to ensure they get the materials they need as environmentally friendly as possible.

That engine backup isn't free. The engine and transmission needed in a hybrid adds cost, complexity, weight, maintenance to a system that isn't needed for drives entirely possible for BEV system.

Elon has definitely underestimated the complexity of FSD and time will tell if he's right or wrong. However, FSD beta has been able to go from LA to San Francisco/Silicon Valley without any human intervention already, no radar or lidar needed. The Silicon Valley trip did need the human to charge the car. Is the system perfect? Far from it, but shows what's possible with just cameras and a neural net.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-bet ... est-video/

How has Tesla fallen behind on battery technology? They're making 4680 cells, over 1M of them so far. It isn't a lot in battery quantity but it's just from their pilot plant. They're making their new battery lines in Austin and Berlin now. They're supposedly building cars with the structural battery pack now out of Austin.

The $25k EV idea was unveiled at battery day in 2020 and possibly fully autonomous in 2023. This is speculated to possibly be a barebones car as costs go down. As we all know, the world has decided differently and costs of everything have gone up. It doesn't make sense to design or build this car yet as they still have months long wait for their $50k+ cars. Same reason why they did away with the $35k model 3.
impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:12 am Something to ponder. If TSLA stock grew 20% every year over the last 5 years, it would be at $250.

TSLA falling can unravel the whole market. I know their fans are many and have the faith. Hope it's not drastic. I am ~100% stocks, so am worried.

Q2 will be bad
That's just cherry picking numbers. TSLA did nothing from 2014-2019 because of all the shorts and others actively trying to keep BEVs from being viable. This was while Tesla the company was still growing revenue by more than 70% annually and production since 2010.

TSLA is 1.44% of SPY. Even if it went away it's not a huge portion of the index. It would have unknown rippling impacts across the markets though.

I don't disagree with you that Q2 will likely be bad though, Elon already warned people of that the last earnings call. Shanghai being slow, now likely BTC impairment. It's a matter of how fast they can ramp up Berlin to compensate. What TSLA investors do is look past these small blips and look for the long term goals. They're adding a new building in Shanghai to expand production another 450k cars there.

As for Toyota, they also bet big on hydrogen and hoping for solid state BEVs too. GM bet on Nikola. Good companies can make bad decisions.
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firebirdparts
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

I realize y'all can read, but that chart is about refining, not the actual source, and to the degree that graphite is not a ubiquitous material, the simple fact that China is the cheapest place to get you some material. The price of chinese material caused everybody else to close their mines.

Graphite is mined in China. it's carbon, so it's not like you can't get all you want any time from another process. It's just that they are the source right now.

China legitimately has dominating known reserves of rare earths. That is true. Viet Nam and Brazil tied for second place. Russia is not shabby.

On the other hand, the big lithium reserves are all in the new world. This is where the refining on the chart is out of line with where the material is. China is doing the refining (because they can cheaply) but the big reserves are in South America.

Nickel is a big chunk of that chart and it's just metal. Nickel reserves are Indonesia, Australia, Brazil in that order.

As always, the best solution is to work together and live well. But sometimes people don't do that.

And too it might be worth noticing that Brazil is a "2nd china" when it comes to these materials.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Steve Wozniak unhappy with his Tesla.

About AutoPilot
We drive 10 mph, 40 mph, 70 mph, and 80 mph all the time. When we’re on an interstate (...) going 75 mph, and all of a sudden, the car screeches the brakes! The dog gets thrown forward, and it slows down. If there’s nobody in the rearview mirror that we have to speed up for, I let it go all the way down: 25 mph on an interstate. A Tesla with nothing around, no cars around, no nothing. (...) This is so dangerous! It’s happened to us a hundred times, at least, because we drive so much.

My gosh! Sometimes, it kind of goes over the line a little, and there’s a truck right there. If a truck kind of moves towards you a little, you should… A human driver would just pull away a few inches. And it doesn’t do that. I remember recently (...) I’m driving along, and all of a sudden, there’s a semi on my right. The car lurched towards the semi, and I had to quickly grab control. Wow, I mean… That would have been death!

You’re on a freeway, and (...) there’s a merger lane coming in. (...) The lane gets wider where it is and (the Tesla) starts driving like a drunk person. But the car coming up ahead… As a smart human, you would just see (...) we’re going to be equal, so I’ll back off a little. Just easy to do. The Tesla lets you go right up next to it, screeches the brake on to get out of the way because it has to by then. This is just not the way humans think

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/stev ... 88775.html
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Looks like battery production is one of the tesla changes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maR05OVeRxo
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

A few things about 4680 cells
  • 4680 cells are large format cylindrical cells. Such large cylindrical cells are known to have problems with internal shorts and other issues. That is why few other EV maker use similar cells.
  • All the other EV battery makers using large cells, use large prismatic cells. These are large prismatic cells vs small cylindrical Cells for Tesla This included Samsung SDI, LGChem, CATL, BYD etc. 
  • Tesla battery pack design in 2009 was highly innovative. It took off the shelf 18650 cells, put thousands of them together to make automotive batteries. This was when Li ion cells for automotive applications didn't exist . From 2009 to now Tesla has incremental improvements in battery design. Move from 18650 to 2170, chemistry reducing Cobalt use etc. 
Tesla pack design
  • Positives- high power density with regular cells. Hence the high acceleration possible in 2010 Roadster. Redundancy of thousands of cells. 
  • Negatives -  Expensive, very heavy. Has Thousands of cells in a bag of potato design. possible reliability when one of thousand cells misbehaves in unexpected ways. There are many Tesla battery repair videos about this - when 3rd parties fixed "junker" batteries by finding this problem with one of thousands of cells. Tesla service just replaced $20k+ batteries.
15 years ago I spoke to a battery engineer in Japan about automotive batteries and he had mentioned they were testing beer can size Li Ion cells. If Companies were testing 4680 type cylindrical cells 15 years ago, why didnt they end up in EVs? Why do all other EV makers now use Prismatic - rectangular cells?   
Tesla started before others, so they started with the cells that were commonly available 13 years ago. Those were the 18650 cells.
ImageImage
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AdrianC
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by AdrianC »

GM and LG have had issues with pouch batteries (a and e in the diagram above). Musk made this comment after GMs troubles:
"...probability of thermal runaway is dangerously high with large pouch cells. Tesla strongly recommends against their use."

https://insideevs.com/news/532693/tesla ... ells-risk/

GMs new Ultium battery is large pouch cells.

I do wonder if the probability of thermal runaway is also quite high with large cylindrical cells. Why wouldn't it be?

I'm in line for a new traction battery for our 2021 Chevy Bolt. Not an issue for us. I doubt very much if there's anything wrong with our battery, so we'll use it up some, then get a new battery and new 100k mile warranty.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Tesla removed from S&P 500 ESG index

Tesla's "lack of a low-carbon strategy" and "codes of business conduct," along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Tesla's handling of an investigation by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration also weighed on its score.

While Tesla's stated mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, in February this year it settled with the Environmental Protection Agency after years of Clean Air Act violations and neglecting to track its own emissions. Tesla ranked 22nd on last year's Toxic 100 Air Polluters Index, compiled annually by U-Mass Amherst Political Economy Research Institute — worse than Exxon Mobil, which came in 26th. (The index uses data from 2019, the most recently available.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-re ... 19416.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/why-tes ... index.html
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