I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

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VideoJoe
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by VideoJoe »

It's interesting to think how point-to-point suborbital travel on Earth will effect the shipping industry. I think that's where the money will be made. Virgin or Boeing selling space vehicles to UPS and FedEx. In that scenario, I'd be more bullish on FedEx and UPS. We'll see...
Keep calm and stay the course.
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JoeRetire
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by JoeRetire »

VideoJoe wrote: Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:19 pm It's interesting to think how point-to-point suborbital travel on Earth will effect the shipping industry. I think that's where the money will be made. Virgin or Boeing selling space vehicles to UPS and FedEx. In that scenario, I'd be more bullish on FedEx and UPS. We'll see...
I'm not seeing a future where suborbital shipping could possibly be cost effective.

But I never say never...
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Shallowpockets
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by Shallowpockets »

OP. why is your exit strategy based on a timeframe of 5 years? Minimum, as you say.
Why not have an exit based on price?
If, in the next year the share price increases 50%, why would you not take that?
IMHO this is a repeated problem with BHs and their fun money. They want that fun money to return 1000%. That want a moon shot (pun intended). I suppose that this is because they see it as fun money which in their minds is lost money. And maybe so. But if their money does gain, especially at a percent far above the at the time prevailing gain of the S and P, why would you not take that as a gift?
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windaar
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by windaar »

Putting 20K in a single stock has zilch to do with Boglehead investing philosophy.
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sycamore
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by sycamore »

SPCE down 19% on the day, down 30% since this thread started. Today's drop due to the company announcing a convertible notes offering, so investors anticipate share dilution.

Today is one of those days when I would second guess why I bought an individual stock. I got out of them years ago. Every now and then I'm tempted to try again with "fun" money. Today reminds me to say no thanks.

OP, hope you're sticking with your plan and not paying attention to days like today 🙂
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er999
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by er999 »

sycamore wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:23 pm SPCE down 19% on the day, down 30% since this thread started. Today's drop due to the company announcing a convertible notes offering, so investors anticipate share dilution.

Today is one of those days when I would second guess why I bought an individual stock. I got out of them years ago. Every now and then I'm tempted to try again with "fun" money. Today reminds me to say no thanks.

OP, hope you're sticking with your plan and not paying attention to days like today 🙂
I'm still paying attention to the stock and did notice the drop. I don't expect any increase in the stock price until the 4th quarter of this year when they're supposed to start commercial flights. Of course, the 4th quarter 2022 flight isn't guaranteed either (spaceflight is complex) so if they have to postpone service further I'm sure the stock will drop more. If it drops down to $5 maybe I'll pick up a few more shares vs just leaving things as they are. Like I said in my original post I'm planning on holding for at least 5 years so we'll see. There's always the sad possibility the next flight is an accident and the stock goes to zero. It's lower now then it's IPO price of $11.75 in 2019 so now is a better time to buy but then when I bought last month. The price I got is still quite a bit off the high of $55, though.
gtrplayer
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by gtrplayer »

er999 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:48 pm
sycamore wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:23 pm SPCE down 19% on the day, down 30% since this thread started. Today's drop due to the company announcing a convertible notes offering, so investors anticipate share dilution.

Today is one of those days when I would second guess why I bought an individual stock. I got out of them years ago. Every now and then I'm tempted to try again with "fun" money. Today reminds me to say no thanks.

OP, hope you're sticking with your plan and not paying attention to days like today 🙂
I'm still paying attention to the stock and did notice the drop. I don't expect any increase in the stock price until the 4th quarter of this year when they're supposed to start commercial flights. Of course, the 4th quarter 2022 flight isn't guaranteed either (spaceflight is complex) so if they have to postpone service further I'm sure the stock will drop more. If it drops down to $5 maybe I'll pick up a few more shares vs just leaving things as they are. Like I said in my original post I'm planning on holding for at least 5 years so we'll see. There's always the sad possibility the next flight is an accident and the stock goes to zero. It's lower now then it's IPO price of $11.75 in 2019 so now is a better time to buy but then when I bought last month. The price I got is still quite a bit off the high of $55, though.
Are they cleared to fly? My understanding is the Branson flight did not go as well as they made it appear on TV.
z3r0c00l
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by z3r0c00l »

What would keep me up at night is the knowledge that Space X could, on the whims of a CEO with known attention span issues, make a product that blows Virgin Galactic (not to mention Blue Origin) out of the water almost immediately. That plus the first time they lose a plane full of civilians their market would be gone. And all that before even thinking about how they are going to make a profit off this business.
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financeperchance
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by financeperchance »

sycamore wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:23 pm SPCE down 19% on the day, down 30% since this thread started. Today's drop due to the company announcing a convertible notes offering, so investors anticipate share dilution.

Today is one of those days when I would second guess why I bought an individual stock. I got out of them years ago. Every now and then I'm tempted to try again with "fun" money. Today reminds me to say no thanks.

OP, hope you're sticking with your plan and not paying attention to days like today 🙂

These are great points. This big stock decline and debt offering is a very good lesson learned. I think there’s a value in seeing that stockpicking is extremely difficult, and I am glad this thread is on this forum and it was allowed to remain.

I have previously recommended Motley fool CAPS on this forum. That’s a great way to test one’s stockpicking skills, and it doesn’t cost a cent. It’s so much better to do that for a year or two, and see how one does before using real money.
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er999
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by er999 »

financeperchance wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:33 pm
sycamore wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:23 pm SPCE down 19% on the day, down 30% since this thread started. Today's drop due to the company announcing a convertible notes offering, so investors anticipate share dilution.

Today is one of those days when I would second guess why I bought an individual stock. I got out of them years ago. Every now and then I'm tempted to try again with "fun" money. Today reminds me to say no thanks.

OP, hope you're sticking with your plan and not paying attention to days like today 🙂

These are great points. This big stock decline and debt offering is a very good lesson learned. I think there’s a value in seeing that stockpicking is extremely difficult, and I am glad this thread is on this forum and it was allowed to remain.

I have previously recommended Motley fool CAPS on this forum. That’s a great way to test one’s stockpicking skills, and it doesn’t cost a cent. It’s so much better to do that for a year or two, and see how one does before using real money.
Yes it’s definitely super volatile. If the total market index was down 40% like this stock is for me it would be doom and gloom for sure. The individual stock picker has to deal with way more volatility.
mary1492
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by mary1492 »

er999 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:15 pm Yes it’s definitely super volatile. If the total market index was down 40% like this stock is for me it would be doom and gloom for sure. The individual stock picker has to deal with way more volatility.
Not necessarily the case. If you go and buy stuff like this, then of course - money pit with no revenues at this time, no profits in sight, etc. What would you expect?

Pick a solid utility or financial company that is modestly profitable, pays a respectable dividend and volatility will be drastically lower.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: I bought Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Virgin Galactic stock falls below debut price two years after going public--Jan 6, 2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/06/virgin- ... later.html
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