Short Tesla?

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Anon9001
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Anon9001 »

Buy puts on Tesla instead of short selling it. Much less dangerous if you are wrong. Most likely you are wrong as this is a very large stock. It is highly unlikely retail investors "dumb money" can influence it's stock price and the instutional investors who are pushing it up probably know something you don't.
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newguy123
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by newguy123 »

Anon9001 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:59 pm Buy puts on Tesla instead of short selling it. Much less dangerous if you are wrong. Most likely you are wrong as this is a very large stock. It is highly unlikely retail investors "dumb money" can influence it's stock price and the instutional investors who are pushing it up probably know something you don't.
Take a look at put premiums, very expensive to buy puts on Tesla
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Anon9001
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Anon9001 »

newguy123 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:01 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:59 pm Buy puts on Tesla instead of short selling it. Much less dangerous if you are wrong. Most likely you are wrong as this is a very large stock. It is highly unlikely retail investors "dumb money" can influence it's stock price and the instutional investors who are pushing it up probably know something you don't.
Take a look at put premiums, very expensive to buy puts on Tesla
That's the price for limited risk compared to short-selling it. I would advice not doing any shorting at all as most likely the OP is suffering from over-confidence bias if he thinks this stock which is #8 on MSCI ACWI is grossly over-valued when it is possible that the price is being pushed up by institutional investors who know something that we don't.
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TheoLeo
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by TheoLeo »

If I had to make a guess, I would say Tesla will bounce between 300 billion and 1 trillion market cap for the next 5 years or so. The timing of the upswings and downsings can mostly be unexpected and random, so I don't know why anyone would buy puts or calls on Tesla.
newguy123
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by newguy123 »

Anon9001 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:04 pm
newguy123 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:01 pm
Anon9001 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:59 pm Buy puts on Tesla instead of short selling it. Much less dangerous if you are wrong. Most likely you are wrong as this is a very large stock. It is highly unlikely retail investors "dumb money" can influence it's stock price and the instutional investors who are pushing it up probably know something you don't.
Take a look at put premiums, very expensive to buy puts on Tesla
That's the price for limited risk compared to short-selling it. I would advice not doing any shorting at all as most likely the OP is suffering from over-confidence bias if he thinks this stock which is #8 on MSCI ACWI is grossly over-valued when it is possible that the price is being pushed up by institutional investors who know something that we don't.
I already went down the road OP wants to go tried shorting with puts and failed , it was profitable for a while though back in March. At this point I think it is less risky to short bitcoin than it is to short Tesla as Tesla has a lot more momentum. :D
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

I appreciate John Bogle's books on investing. I don't see short selling anywhere in Bogle's writings. Buying low fee index funds and holding them a long time has worked well for me.
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
jdb
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by jdb »

https://apple.news/AE3_hkRu1Sxe-bajYbqtLsg

Interesting article apropos to discussion. Good luck shorts.
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by pseudoiterative »

jdb wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:46 pm https://apple.news/AE3_hkRu1Sxe-bajYbqtLsg
thank you for sharing! Separately from Tesla (which I don't believe is a fraud) Chanos talks a bit about financial fraud.

One point that Chanos has made in interviews is that the financial fraud cycle lags the financial cycle: during a long period of financial expansion, investors become increasing credulous, and there's more opportunity for fraudsters to get involved to try to steal some of the cheap money that's sloshing around (e.g. NKLA). Then as the financial cycle goes into contraction, and there's less money available, and it becomes much harder to hide where the money or assets are meant to be, and a wave of frauds are revealed.

The article has the following anecdote that hints at the level of potential or likely fraud in the current markets:
What’s different this time, Chanos said, is that investors keep bidding up stock of companies with questionable financial statements until the firms themselves finally admit wrongdoing. Suspected or actual frauds currently make up 30% to 35% of Kynikos’ short portfolio versus the typical 10% to 15%.
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Candor
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by Candor »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:43 pm Long-time Tesla short Jim Chanos, president and founder of New York hedge fund Kynikos Associates just yesterday stated he recently slashed his short position on Tesla. Maybe his partial capitulation is an indicator now is a good time start shorting Tesla? I certainly wouldn't chance it.
His fund used to hold a position of (as I recall) -5% TSLA, which is the maximum short exposure allowed according to his fund's risk control parameters. So the fund would buy to cover to keep the desired short exposure as the short moved against him. Are you saying he's no longer max short TSLA?
In the interview I saw he didn't get into specifics except to say he is no longer max short on Tesla because there are better opportunities for short positions out there, primarily IBM.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Epicurus (341–270 BC)
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by whodidntante »

Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:09 pm
whodidntante wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:43 pm Long-time Tesla short Jim Chanos, president and founder of New York hedge fund Kynikos Associates just yesterday stated he recently slashed his short position on Tesla. Maybe his partial capitulation is an indicator now is a good time start shorting Tesla? I certainly wouldn't chance it.
His fund used to hold a position of (as I recall) -5% TSLA, which is the maximum short exposure allowed according to his fund's risk control parameters. So the fund would buy to cover to keep the desired short exposure as the short moved against him. Are you saying he's no longer max short TSLA?
In the interview I saw he didn't get into specifics except to say he is no longer max short on Tesla because there are better opportunities for short positions out there, primarily IBM.
Dr. Malkiel has been touting IBM as a steady blue-chip company, reliable dividend payer, and viable low-yielding bond alternative. Experts can hold opposite opinions with high conviction. I have no concerns about passive investing precluding price discovery.
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by JonnyDVM »

How many dead bodies have to be strewn across the path in front of you before you accept that attempting to short TSLA is a bad idea?
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by Valuethinker »

TheBeanCounter wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:23 pm For those with a speculative streak, Michael Burry now has a short position on Tesla. While there have been countless intelligent people who have shorted Tesla in the past, does anybody think Burry will prove to have the direction and timing correct?

Does this make anybody more confident in shorting Tesla? Doesn't matter to most on here I assume.

Hopefully somebody didn't already start a thread on this :sharebeer
Remember with Burry the whole point of the story was that his fund did so badly his investors demanded their money back, and when he wouldn't give it to them, they sued him.

He was right, eventually, but he nearly lost everything.
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Candor
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by Candor »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:55 pm
Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:09 pm
whodidntante wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:50 pm
Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:43 pm Long-time Tesla short Jim Chanos, president and founder of New York hedge fund Kynikos Associates just yesterday stated he recently slashed his short position on Tesla. Maybe his partial capitulation is an indicator now is a good time start shorting Tesla? I certainly wouldn't chance it.
His fund used to hold a position of (as I recall) -5% TSLA, which is the maximum short exposure allowed according to his fund's risk control parameters. So the fund would buy to cover to keep the desired short exposure as the short moved against him. Are you saying he's no longer max short TSLA?
In the interview I saw he didn't get into specifics except to say he is no longer max short on Tesla because there are better opportunities for short positions out there, primarily IBM.
Dr. Malkiel has been touting IBM as a steady blue-chip company, reliable dividend payer, and viable low-yielding bond alternative. Experts can hold opposite opinions with high conviction. I have no concerns about passive investing precluding price discovery.
Chanos seemed convinced there are significant accounting shenanigans going on at IBM which will come to light in the next couple of years.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Epicurus (341–270 BC)
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whodidntante
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by whodidntante »

Candor wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:24 pm Chanos seemed convinced there are significant accounting shenanigans going on at IBM which will come to light in the next couple of years.
Oh man, it will be fun if he's right! :beer
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by birdog »

langlands wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:30 am Guess I'm the only one who owns TSLA?
I’ve owned it for quite a while in my super secret investment fund, VTI (total stock market index). Very happy with its profits to date!
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by bugleheadd »

Never bet against the Musk
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by IngognitoUSA »

Love him or hate him, Musk has indeed changed the world with electric cars being the future.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by CyclingDuo »

Gabelli2020 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:17 pmSo who’s willing to go anti- Boglian to the max and do the obvious. Market capitalization of 562 billion with p.e. of 1,134!! I own a Tesla, but this is unsustainable. When it bursts fortunes will be made.
Go ahead. Knock yourself out. :beer

For the rest of us, we own it via index funds and will just be along for the ride for the coming decades.

Invest vs. speculate. I'll take the former.

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Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

mrspock wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:10 am
cone774413 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:33 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:32 pm Good luck with that. Never bet against a guy which can land rockets on end.... doubly so when they can do this two rockets at once.
Do you think Musk had any substantial contribution towards the engineering or design of those rockets?
Far more critical than that. Many large engineering efforts have been undone due to fools leading at the top (737 MAX, NASA's SLS, *insert military hardware project here*, BlackBerry etc), they either corner cut (*cough* Boeing *cough*), cave to shareholder pressure, or incorrectly assess the competition and/or misjudge the future (*cough* BlackBerry *cough*).

Musk to date, has shown none of these tendencies, his faults from what I see are driving his people probably too hard for too long. But of the defects one can have in a leader, I'd rather that, that some fool who doesn't understand why putting large engines on a 40+ year old fuselage is a bad idea, or why taking 20 years to build a giant rocket with tax payer money is a really bad plan, or why having a really garbage UI with an underpowered CPU isn't going to end well -- no matter what your current market share might be.

Until my current company, I never really appreciated how critical truly great leaders at the top are in an engineering firm. They make all the difference in the world. Musk is driven, a visionary, inspires his employees, has a mission and is willing to risk failure to make progress (in the R&D phase). Engineers at Tesla and SpaceX get jobs for way more money elsewhere, but that's not their motivation, they are out to change the world, and so far as they can help it, nothing is going to stop them from achieving their goals, their mission.

My current company has a similar culture so I understand this. When people bet against us, mock us, or threaten us, we will work harder, longer and move mountains -- it motivates us. There is also an intense loyalty to our m-team that I don't think you would see at companies like Ford, GM or Boeing. When we are in "war time" mode, the entire company can be focused in way I don't think is possible in other corporate cultures where everyone is there for a pay check, 9-5 etc. I suspect Tesla & SpaceX have similar cultures, so underestimating them can be dangerous to your trading account.
This!!! my friends is a great deep dive. Reread it. People who doubt and judge Tesla over the years have had very very poor insight. As a person telling you all to get on this 15 bagger rocket ship for the last two years. I’ve been astonished how many of you look at it with derision. I doubt anyone here on BH has pushed more than me besides the guy winning the 2020 BH competition.

The tides are changing: 1) Read the Goldman Sachs note from this week that says it is worth $780 today. This is the first positive research note I have seen in the three years I have closely followed TSLA. 2) Read the Fortune: Business Man of the Year 2020 from this week. See who other CEOs want to emulate. See what those who have worked with him say. Start there.

The problem with convincing you all is there are 100+ reasons Tesla is an amazing bet. It would be tedious to list them. They have over a decade head start in many critical areas of tech for the future: over the air updates, software, batteries, electric drivetrain, solar, storage, roofing, autonomous transport, autonomous delivery, atvs, manufacturing, autonomous manufacturing, AI, hardware chips, autonomous value creation, the gigafactories as the product.

Spacex and Tesla have gotten the finest engineering minds from our country for a decade. This is what convinced the shark tank hater.

This is on its way to a $2T, $5T...??? Vertical integration with economies of scale will lead to 50%y/y growth to top line... Here’s where all of you MISS THE POINT... the bottom line (earnings/profit)... will grow more than the top line by definition. Tesla is about to be a money tree when they have these 4 factories made. TSLA is betting on so many different industries and has so much disruption I view it as massively diversified. I mean what happens when they are first to level five autonomy? It’s virtually certain now. Just that one catalyst... sit back watch and regret what might have been.

As an aside I have worked in a company like mrspock described when I was young. I have also visited GM and Ford during the 1990s... they were where engineers went to die then. Zombie companies then. You could give me Ford right now for free with its $155B debt and yearly earnings of $3-5B and I wouldn’t even want it.

My IPS is four funds: VTI/VXUS/Bonds/TSLA and has rebalancing bands.
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by dumbmoney »

newguy123 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:58 pm The thing that I realize now is to never short "cult" stocks, valuations, market caps don't matter
Never short, period.

It's seductive because it's so easy to be right, and yet so hard to make money. And losing money isn't even the worst part. It's the anxiety. Realizing a loss actually comes as a great relief.
I am pleased to report that the invisible forces of destruction have been unmasked, marking a turning point chapter when the fraudulent and speculative winds are cast into the inferno of extinction.
MarkBarb
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by MarkBarb »

It sees overpriced to me, but I'm just going to ignore it and get on with my life. I keep my investing life simple. Speculating on price collapses isn't worth the time if I don't make it a significant bet and it isn't worth the risk if I do. It's one of the reasons I don't gamble in Vegas - small stakes or boring and large stakes are too risky. I'm just a boring person.
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by whodidntante »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:44 am This!!! my friends is a great deep dive. Reread it. People who doubt and judge Tesla over the years have had very very poor insight. As a person telling you all to get on this 15 bagger rocket ship for the last two years. I’ve been astonished how many of you look at it with derision. I doubt anyone here on BH has pushed more than me besides the guy winning the 2020 BH competition.

The tides are changing: 1) Read the Goldman Sachs note from this week that says it is worth $780 today. This is the first positive research note I have seen in the three years I have closely followed TSLA. 2) Read the Fortune: Business Man of the Year 2020 from this week. See who other CEOs want to emulate. See what those who have worked with him say. Start there.

The problem with convincing you all is there are 100+ reasons Tesla is an amazing bet. It would be tedious to list them. They have over a decade head start in many critical areas of tech for the future: over the air updates, software, batteries, electric drivetrain, solar, storage, roofing, autonomous transport, autonomous delivery, atvs, manufacturing, autonomous manufacturing, AI, hardware chips, autonomous value creation, the gigafactories as the product.

Spacex and Tesla have gotten the finest engineering minds from our country for a decade. This is what convinced the shark tank hater.

This is on its way to a $2T, $5T...??? Vertical integration with economies of scale will lead to 50%y/y growth to top line... Here’s where all of you MISS THE POINT... the bottom line (earnings/profit)... will grow more than the top line by definition. Tesla is about to be a money tree when they have these 4 factories made. TSLA is betting on so many different industries and has so much disruption I view it as massively diversified. I mean what happens when they are first to level five autonomy? It’s virtually certain now. Just that one catalyst... sit back watch and regret what might have been.

As an aside I have worked in a company like mrspock described when I was young. I have also visited GM and Ford during the 1990s... they were where engineers went to die then. Zombie companies then. You could give me Ford right now for free with its $155B debt and yearly earnings of $3-5B and I wouldn’t even want it.

My IPS is four funds: VTI/VXUS/Bonds/TSLA and has rebalancing bands.
I wish that phpBB had a remind me feature like Reddit does, because it would be interesting to compare the results to this prognostication after three years.
Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

I have been telling you Tesla on bogelheads for two years despite the hate. You could have turned $1M into $15M. Don’t care what you do moving forward... I already bagged it.
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4nursebee
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:44 am
mrspock wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:10 am
cone774413 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:33 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:32 pm Good luck with that. Never bet against a guy which can land rockets on end.... doubly so when they can do this two rockets at once.
Do you think Musk had any substantial contribution towards the engineering or design of those rockets?
Far more critical than that. Many large engineering efforts have been undone due to fools leading at the top (737 MAX, NASA's SLS, *insert military hardware project here*, BlackBerry etc), they either corner cut (*cough* Boeing *cough*), cave to shareholder pressure, or incorrectly assess the competition and/or misjudge the future (*cough* BlackBerry *cough*).

Musk to date, has shown none of these tendencies, his faults from what I see are driving his people probably too hard for too long. But of the defects one can have in a leader, I'd rather that, that some fool who doesn't understand why putting large engines on a 40+ year old fuselage is a bad idea, or why taking 20 years to build a giant rocket with tax payer money is a really bad plan, or why having a really garbage UI with an underpowered CPU isn't going to end well -- no matter what your current market share might be.

Until my current company, I never really appreciated how critical truly great leaders at the top are in an engineering firm. They make all the difference in the world. Musk is driven, a visionary, inspires his employees, has a mission and is willing to risk failure to make progress (in the R&D phase). Engineers at Tesla and SpaceX get jobs for way more money elsewhere, but that's not their motivation, they are out to change the world, and so far as they can help it, nothing is going to stop them from achieving their goals, their mission.

My current company has a similar culture so I understand this. When people bet against us, mock us, or threaten us, we will work harder, longer and move mountains -- it motivates us. There is also an intense loyalty to our m-team that I don't think you would see at companies like Ford, GM or Boeing. When we are in "war time" mode, the entire company can be focused in way I don't think is possible in other corporate cultures where everyone is there for a pay check, 9-5 etc. I suspect Tesla & SpaceX have similar cultures, so underestimating them can be dangerous to your trading account.
This!!! my friends is a great deep dive. Reread it. People who doubt and judge Tesla over the years have had very very poor insight. As a person telling you all to get on this 15 bagger rocket ship for the last two years. I’ve been astonished how many of you look at it with derision. I doubt anyone here on BH has pushed more than me besides the guy winning the 2020 BH competition.

The tides are changing: 1) Read the Goldman Sachs note from this week that says it is worth $780 today. This is the first positive research note I have seen in the three years I have closely followed TSLA. 2) Read the Fortune: Business Man of the Year 2020 from this week. See who other CEOs want to emulate. See what those who have worked with him say. Start there.

The problem with convincing you all is there are 100+ reasons Tesla is an amazing bet. It would be tedious to list them. They have over a decade head start in many critical areas of tech for the future: over the air updates, software, batteries, electric drivetrain, solar, storage, roofing, autonomous transport, autonomous delivery, atvs, manufacturing, autonomous manufacturing, AI, hardware chips, autonomous value creation, the gigafactories as the product.

Spacex and Tesla have gotten the finest engineering minds from our country for a decade. This is what convinced the shark tank hater.

This is on its way to a $2T, $5T...??? Vertical integration with economies of scale will lead to 50%y/y growth to top line... Here’s where all of you MISS THE POINT... the bottom line (earnings/profit)... will grow more than the top line by definition. Tesla is about to be a money tree when they have these 4 factories made. TSLA is betting on so many different industries and has so much disruption I view it as massively diversified. I mean what happens when they are first to level five autonomy? It’s virtually certain now. Just that one catalyst... sit back watch and regret what might have been.

As an aside I have worked in a company like mrspock described when I was young. I have also visited GM and Ford during the 1990s... they were where engineers went to die then. Zombie companies then. You could give me Ford right now for free with its $155B debt and yearly earnings of $3-5B and I wouldn’t even want it.

My IPS is four funds: VTI/VXUS/Bonds/TSLA and has rebalancing bands.

Where have you been pumping Tesla? I read much of related discussion here, never seen you before.
If you have been in it for a while, care to share more of your story here at next link?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=106653&p=5642747#p5642747

Thanks
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mokaThought
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by mokaThought »

Gabelli2020 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:17 pm So who’s willing to go anti- Boglian to the max and do the obvious. Market capitalization of 562 billion with p.e. of 1,134!! I own a Tesla, but this is unsustainable. When it bursts fortunes will be made.
Go look at the 2020 Hedge Fund Contest standings and observe what the bottom four all have in common.
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:34 am I have been telling you Tesla on bogelheads for two years despite the hate. You could have turned $1M into $15M. Don’t care what you do moving forward... I already bagged it.

Yeah I’m not seeing you pump Tesla in any way. Perhaps you were doing so elsewhere?
I’d love to see where you did this 2 years ago.
Pale Blue Dot
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker »

It was the most heavily shorted stock.

At this point, I imagine most of the shorts have capitulated.

I have been wrong about this, all the way up.

But I still encourage most readers to own the car, not the stock. Except in the context of holding the whole US (or world) stock market via low cost index funds.

There was a poster here ?Dan Mahoney? who was advocating a bear stance on Tesla, and claimed he had a large short position.

He does not post here, any more.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Valuethinker wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:42 am ... But I still encourage most readers to own the car, not the stock. Except in the context of holding the whole US (or world) stock market via low cost index funds.

There was a poster here ?Dan Mahoney? who was advocating a bear stance on Tesla, and claimed he had a large short position.

He does not post here, any more.
I seldom think this way, but almost 5 years ago I paid a 6 digit number for my Model X. If I had bought TSLA with that money ...

I miss Dan Mahoney. I hope he got out without mortal wounds.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
amitb00
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by amitb00 »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:11 am I seldom think this way, but almost 5 years ago I paid a 6 digit number for my Model X. If I had bought TSLA with that money ...

I miss Dan Mahoney. I hope he got out without mortal wounds.
I bought my Model S 6 years back in 6 figures. I was also talking to few friends last week and was saying if only I had bought the stocks. Any way, I did not and am mostly (90+ percent)following 3 funds .
alwayshedge
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by alwayshedge »

Funny how when the shorts capitulate, all the articles about exploding cars, teslas driving themselves off a mountain cliff and misaligned panels have seemed to be less common.
Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

4nursebee wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:54 am
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:34 am I have been telling you Tesla on bogelheads for two years despite the hate. You could have turned $1M into $15M. Don’t care what you do moving forward... I already bagged it.

Yeah I’m not seeing you pump Tesla in any way. Perhaps you were doing so elsewhere?
I’d love to see where you did this 2 years ago.
I apologize most of the threads were deleted (actually all were deleted). There were tons of threads 2018-2019 here especially with the guy who shorted and vanished that were deleted.
Gufomel
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Gufomel »

Well if you shorted Tesla when you posted you’re down close to 5% already. It may be in a bubble, it may not. People have thought it’s in a bubble for what seems like forever now, and have lost their shirts betting against it.
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by wootwoot »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:34 am I have been telling you Tesla on bogelheads for two years despite the hate. You could have turned $1M into $15M. Don’t care what you do moving forward... I already bagged it.
Can you give us some more hot stock tips?
bhusa
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by bhusa »

TheoLeo wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:06 pm If I had to make a guess, I would say Tesla will bounce between 300 billion and 1 trillion market cap for the next 5 years or so. The timing of the upswings and downsings can mostly be unexpected and random, so I don't know why anyone would buy puts or calls on Tesla.
I feel the same, so I short 100 sh Tesla last week at 641, and put a limit to short 70 sh of Tesla today at 685, it is $680 a share a few minutes ago, I plan to short 30 more sh if it goes to $840. That is, and no more, no matter what. And I won't buy it back for at least a year. I figure I will incur a loss of at most 200k, for I think the upper limit of Tesla cap is 1.5 trillion.
Shallowpockets
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Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by Shallowpockets »

bhusa wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:51 am
TheoLeo wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:06 pm If I had to make a guess, I would say Tesla will bounce between 300 billion and 1 trillion market cap for the next 5 years or so. The timing of the upswings and downsings can mostly be unexpected and random, so I don't know why anyone would buy puts or calls on Tesla.
I feel the same, so I short 100 sh Tesla last week at 641, and put a limit to short 70 sh of Tesla today at 685, it is $680 a share a few minutes ago, I plan to short 30 more sh if it goes to $840. That is, and no more, no matter what. And I won't buy it back for at least a year. I figure I will incur a loss of at most 200k, for I think the upper limit of Tesla cap is 1.5 trillion.

Options contracts are sold as 1 contract = 100 shares.
How are you shorting 70 shares, and then, maybe 30 more?
bhusa
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Location: upstate NY

Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

Post by bhusa »

Shallowpockets wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:22 am
bhusa wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:51 am
TheoLeo wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:06 pm If I had to make a guess, I would say Tesla will bounce between 300 billion and 1 trillion market cap for the next 5 years or so. The timing of the upswings and downsings can mostly be unexpected and random, so I don't know why anyone would buy puts or calls on Tesla.
I feel the same, so I short 100 sh Tesla last week at 641, and put a limit to short 70 sh of Tesla today at 685, it is $680 a share a few minutes ago, I plan to short 30 more sh if it goes to $840. That is, and no more, no matter what. And I won't buy it back for at least a year. I figure I will incur a loss of at most 200k, for I think the upper limit of Tesla cap is 1.5 trillion.

Options contracts are sold as 1 contract = 100 shares.
How are you shorting 70 shares, and then, maybe 30 more?
option contracts are for calls and puts options, I do short selling of stock shares with limit orders through Vanguard stock trade.
johnrbain
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by johnrbain »

langlands wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:30 am Guess I'm the only one who owns TSLA?
No I own it also. Bought 10 shares over a 6 month period with some extra money I had about a year ago. That 10 turned into 50 with the split so it's been profitable. $2500 has grown into about $30000. I'm just going to hang on and see where it goes. Elon believes in what he's doing and has been willing to put his money where his mouth is.
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burritoLover
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by burritoLover »

I love the TSLA braggers who claim to have made :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag but in reality they haven't sold anything. It isn't real until you take the profit. When this game of expecting the next idiot to pay more than you ends, most likely it is going to be the retail investors who are left holding the bag.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
Stocks4LongRun
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Stocks4LongRun »

TravelforFun wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:19 pm
Gabelli2020 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:17 pm So who’s willing to go anti- Boglian to the max and do the obvious. Market capitalization of 562 billion with p.e. of 1,134!! I own a Tesla, but this is unsustainable. When it bursts fortunes will be made.
So many people including famed investors have gotten squeezed by TSLA.

TravelforFun
I actually did back in Feb when I thought it was ridiculous. I made about $1,000 and then closed my position in March. I still can't believe that it has shot up 600%! It's like a metaphor for a rocket ship! https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=tsla,%20SPY
langlands
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by langlands »

burritoLover wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:00 pm I love the TSLA braggers who claim to have made :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag but in reality they haven't sold anything. It isn't real until you take the profit. When this game of expecting the next idiot to pay more than you ends, most likely it is going to be the retail investors who are left holding the bag.
When you say "it isn't real until you take the profit," are you referring specifically to TSLA, or is it a general statement applicable to any asset? If the latter, I presume most Boglehead retirement accounts are essentially vaporware.
Carol88888
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Carol88888 »

No! Even professionals lose money shorting. Do you have any idea how stressed you will feel if it moves against you? Then you will have to decide whether to short more or cover.

How will you decide? I like buying stuff in my account that I only have to make one decision about. The decision to buy.
Coltrane75
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by Coltrane75 »

Gabelli2020 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:17 pm So who’s willing to go anti- Boglian to the max and do the obvious. Market capitalization of 562 billion with p.e. of 1,134!! I own a Tesla, but this is unsustainable. When it bursts fortunes will be made.
I won't, B-head true believer here.

But go for it if you really want to. Sounds exciting but be careful.
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burritoLover
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by burritoLover »

langlands wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:26 pm
burritoLover wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:00 pm I love the TSLA braggers who claim to have made :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag but in reality they haven't sold anything. It isn't real until you take the profit. When this game of expecting the next idiot to pay more than you ends, most likely it is going to be the retail investors who are left holding the bag.
When you say "it isn't real until you take the profit," are you referring specifically to TSLA, or is it a general statement applicable to any asset? If the latter, I presume most Boglehead retirement accounts are essentially vaporware.
I would presume most BH retirement accounts have bonds as ballast and are not concentrated in a handful of stocks. But, yes, it isn't real until you sell it which can also bite you in the ass in a normal retirement portfolio due to the sequence of returns.

If someone is going to brag about their TSLA gains and feel like they are vindicated because they bought when everyone told them it was stupid, you better have locked in those gains otherwise it is meaningless. Buying is only half the battle. Timing when to sell is arguably the trickier decision.
"Your money is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have." - Gene Fama
rockstar
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by rockstar »

Gabelli2020 wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:17 pm So who’s willing to go anti- Boglian to the max and do the obvious. Market capitalization of 562 billion with p.e. of 1,134!! I own a Tesla, but this is unsustainable. When it bursts fortunes will be made.
If you really don't believe it, buy put contracts to cover your position, so that you can sell at these levels in the future. If it goes higher, you can either roll them forward or let them expire. If it drops, you can use your contracts to sell at today's price. This feels less risky than taking a short position. With the puts you at least know the max you'll lose.
impatientInv
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Re: Short Tesla?

Post by impatientInv »

newguy123 wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:58 pm
Ackman got killed by shorting Herbalife as well. The thing that I realize now is to never short "cult" stocks, valuations, market caps don't matter
++1
People have lost millions shorting Tesla. Even most the TSLAQ crowd who believe Tesla is too overvalued (and some believe fraud) don't short it anymore.

If I owned any Tesla stock directly, I would sell and invest in TSM fund.
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