Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

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AnotherMike
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by AnotherMike »

OP I am impressed by your ability to produce your own food, something very, very few of us can do.
andypanda
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by andypanda »

I retired in 2012 and my plan is to stay retired.

Meanwhile, we had the double-pane glass replaced in 7 sashes on Friday and we've paid a deposit to have 2 decks and one small entry porch replaced with composite decking in March, and we've decided on a contractor to do a complete tear out/remodel on two bathrooms and some other odds and ends like replace the hardwood flooring in a bedroom, replace a yard light, replace the kitchen backsplash, etc. They too will be available around the end of February/beginning of March. They don't do small single jobs, but as long as they have a carpenter, plumber, electrician, tile guy, etc. on site they will do a bunch of additional small stuff. Like replacing one Hardie board that's damaged. We have a spare in the garage.
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Devil's Advocate
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by Devil's Advocate »

AnotherMike wrote: Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:49 am OP I am impressed by your ability to produce your own food, something very, very few of us can do.
Is that a choice?

DA
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WoodSpinner
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by WoodSpinner »

csmath wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:57 am Can anyone with firsthand knowledge or perhaps a connected acquaintance speak to the narrative that a trucker shortage is in fact not the problem and that instead it is workers at the ports themselves and also the prohibitive rules for union truckers vs owner/operator non-union haulers?

I can say that I have had at least a dozen young people tell me that getting a minimum wage job is “not worth it because it isn’t even a living wage”. None of these individuals have flown the coop. Chasing unskilled workers by increasing minimum wage must contribute to some sources of inflation right? Margin is margin.
Not exactly first hand, but…..

I enjoy the Odd Lots Podcast and they have done a number of in depth shows on the Supply Chain mess. I really like their insights into very complex processes.

See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... erate-24-7. As an example

WoodSpinner
Tanelorn
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by Tanelorn »

Quotes from lots of companies on rising prices, supply chain issues, and how they see these developing. Among other things, it seems like consumer goods are not seeing reduced demand as they have increased prices so far, which suggests further inflation from price hikes being passed on to buyers in due course.

https://thetranscript.substack.com/p/th ... 021-letter

Meanwhile Fed comments suggest the hot inflation numbers are forcing their hand to taper faster and talk about rising interest rates several times in 2022. Those that prepared for this via inflation protected assets have done well in recent months as this has become more widely accepted.

I am still positioning my investments to cater to continued elevated inflation (vs the 2-3% historical rates) along the lines I mentioned earlier (lower, selective equity exposure and more high yield credit on the fixed income side).
muffins14
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by muffins14 »

I’m not close to retirement, but if I were, I’d like to think I would do almost nothing in this case.

It’s possible I’d have a portfolio near 70/30, and have half my bonds in long-term TIPS as some unexpected inflation hedge. The market has gone up like 40% in the last year, so you could be going from 25x expenses saved to 30x expenses saved, which is pretty awesome. You could take the new larger portfolio and rebalance it, thus having even more TIPS on hand. Seems kind of great
Engaging in sloth
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by Engaging in sloth »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:57 pm How does having a low-interest mortgage loan hedge you against inflation?

You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way.
Having a low fixed-rate mortgage means you don't have to pull the money out - it was never "in" to begin with.
Someone else said they took money out.
A paid off mortgage is terrific, if someone else paid it off for you. Otherwise, you took your money from somewhere and put it into the walls of your home, rather than having it in a portfolio that could beat inflation.
That doesn't explain anything, sorry. Another poster said that a house with a mortgage was an inflation hedge. I was curious what difference the mortgage makes. Isn't the house itself (paid off or not), an inflation hedge?

You are saying the opposite. You are saying that a house is not an inflation hedge, but the correct inflation hedge is to invest in a portfolio than can beat inflation.
Having your house paid off is tremendous peace-of-mind. And very importantly, believe it or not, the market can drop for quite awhile. If you have a $400k mortgage and use that $ for investing, instead of having the house paid off,- what happens when the market drops 50%. Now you are down $200k plus you owe $400k on the house. Not a good idea, especially for a retiree.
livesoft
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by livesoft »

3504PIR wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:21 am[...]
Finally, and I am keenly interested in this question, are you comfortable sustaining you and your family from where you currently live? As in, do you live on a small or large peice of land like I do, or do you live in a subdivision and perhaps are doing something out of the box which you can share.

I am curious about all of your impressions.

tldr: are you comfortable with how your situation will survive inflation and how are you applying any hacks you might know of to overcome inflation?
I am leaching off of my grown children which I think is a pretty darn good hack. I don't think I am going to run out of money no matter what happens with inflation. In essence, I am retired and they have jobs which get them COLA pay increases. They will inherit a big chunk of change no matter what inflation does to it.
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flyingaway
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by flyingaway »

livesoft wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:31 pm
3504PIR wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:21 am[...]
Finally, and I am keenly interested in this question, are you comfortable sustaining you and your family from where you currently live? As in, do you live on a small or large peice of land like I do, or do you live in a subdivision and perhaps are doing something out of the box which you can share.

I am curious about all of your impressions.

tldr: are you comfortable with how your situation will survive inflation and how are you applying any hacks you might know of to overcome inflation?
I am leaching off of my grown children which I think is a pretty darn good hack. I don't think I am going to run out of money no matter what happens with inflation. In essence, I am retired and they have jobs which get them COLA pay increases. They will inherit a big chunk of change no matter what inflation does to it.
Spending your children's inheritance?
livesoft
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by livesoft »

flyingaway wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:05 pmSpending your children's inheritance?
More than that. I am on their cell phone plan, Netflix, etc. When they ask me what I want for Christmas, I oblige them with a list of things I would like. My son just gave me an H-E-B gift card. They sell food and gas.
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CurlyDave
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by CurlyDave »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:57 pm I'm having an old-age moment.

How does having a low-interest mortgage loan hedge you against inflation?

You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way.

Is the idea that the value of your house will go up with inflation? While the loan remains constant?

But then the only way to to access that money is to sell your house, right? And any other house you'd buy as a replacement also has gone up in price due to inflation.... So downsize?

If the value of the house is the inflation hedge, then wouldn't it work just as well if it is paid off?
It doesn't work as well because of leverage. If I have 20% equity in a house and the house price goes up due to inflation, my equity increases 5x as fast as inflation. If I have 100% equity in a house my equity only increases at the rate of inflation.

I understand what you are saying, because the total value increase is the same in both instances. But as a percentage of my invested capital the leveraged situation is far better.

As far as not realizing the gain in the house price until one sells goes, again you are correct. BUT, isn't one of the principles of Bogleheadism "stay the course", or in other words, be a long-term buy and hold investor? DW and I relocated from a VHCOL area to an average COL area when we retired. This benefitted us greatly. As it turned out in real life we chose to buy a far nicer retirement house than we had in the SF Bay Area. We enjoy the house every day. And, unlike some on this board, I count the house as a financial asset. There is a very high probability that one of us will outlive the other, and the survivor may well require end of life assisted living. Sale of the house is going to provide the financial means for that assistance.

"You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way." Here I disagree. The money I pull out only has to beat the interest rate on the loan for me to come out ahead. The house is supposed to be beating inflation. My current mortgage is 2.5%, so that is the mark I have to beat. And, I only have to beat it in nominal terms, not real, since the mortgage is repaid in then-year dollars. Now naysayers will jump up and point out individual years and even sequences when this did not happen. BUT, if I am in it for the long term this is not the right way to look at it. In the past century how many 5 year sequences have failed to return 2.5% nominal? How many 10 year sequences?
Last edited by CurlyDave on Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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willthrill81
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by willthrill81 »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:06 am And, unlike some on this board, I count the house as a financial asset. There is a very high probability that one of us will outlive the other, and the survivor may well require end of life assisted living. Sale of the house is going to provide the financial means for that assistance.
Why so many here ignore the financial value of their home is beyond me. As you note, a home can be sold, and other living arrangements can be made. There's a good chance that we'll eventually sell our home, RV full-time for a while, then move into an independent living facility afterward. As such, the value of our home is very relevant to us as well.
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TN_Boy
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by TN_Boy »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:10 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:06 am And, unlike some on this board, I count the house as a financial asset. There is a very high probability that one of us will outlive the other, and the survivor may well require end of life assisted living. Sale of the house is going to provide the financial means for that assistance.
Why so many here ignore the financial value of their home is beyond me. As you note, a home can be sold, and other living arrangements can be made. There's a good chance that we'll eventually sell our home, RV full-time for a while, then move into an independent living facility afterward. As such, the value of our home is very relevant to us as well.
+1 It also dazzles me the number of people who ignore a six figure asset. It can be sold. You might be able to take out a reverse mortgage or a HELOC to get money. It doesn't generate any income, and is thus not part of my investment portfolio, but it's not to be ignored.

One *might* stay in their wonderful paid off house their entire life. I know a number of people who thought that .... and were wrong.
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by dbr »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:18 am
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:10 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:06 am And, unlike some on this board, I count the house as a financial asset. There is a very high probability that one of us will outlive the other, and the survivor may well require end of life assisted living. Sale of the house is going to provide the financial means for that assistance.
Why so many here ignore the financial value of their home is beyond me. As you note, a home can be sold, and other living arrangements can be made. There's a good chance that we'll eventually sell our home, RV full-time for a while, then move into an independent living facility afterward. As such, the value of our home is very relevant to us as well.
+1 It also dazzles me the number of people who ignore a six figure asset. It can be sold. You might be able to take out a reverse mortgage or a HELOC to get money. It doesn't generate any income, and is thus not part of my investment portfolio, but it's not to be ignored.

One *might* stay in their wonderful paid off house their entire life. I know a number of people who thought that .... and were wrong.
I don't understand that either. It isn't very hard to understand the difference between something you would not tabulate as a stock or bond but has value without throwing up your hands and saying it isn't worth anything or that owning the home vs not owning the home has no effect on one's financial situation.
wolf359
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by wolf359 »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:57 pm How does having a low-interest mortgage loan hedge you against inflation?

You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way.
Having a low fixed-rate mortgage means you don't have to pull the money out - it was never "in" to begin with.
Someone else said they took money out.
A paid off mortgage is terrific, if someone else paid it off for you. Otherwise, you took your money from somewhere and put it into the walls of your home, rather than having it in a portfolio that could beat inflation.
That doesn't explain anything, sorry. Another poster said that a house with a mortgage was an inflation hedge. I was curious what difference the mortgage makes. Isn't the house itself (paid off or not), an inflation hedge?

You are saying the opposite. You are saying that a house is not an inflation hedge, but the correct inflation hedge is to invest in a portfolio than can beat inflation.
To some degree, the house itself is an inflation hedge. Real estate tends to increase at the same rate as inflation. Over some time periods it may beat inflation, but over very long periods it just matches it. This also varies by location -- if the economy in your city/town is going down, your values might be dropping.

When you take out a mortgage, you get money now, and you pay it back with inflated dollars. That's what really hedges against inflation. If I manage to lock in a low interest rate for a long time, and inflation exceeds that rate, I come out ahead. The dollar I'm paying back has less spending power than the dollar I borrowed.

I view a paid off mortgage as a luxury purchase. You can't declare bankruptcy if you don't owe anybody any money. Mathematically, it's better to invest than to pay off the mortgage. But boy, does it feel good.

On the other hand, in 30 years we're going to look back at today's interest rates and think that they were impossibly low. Just like we look back at the interest rates of 30 years ago and think those rates were impossibly high.
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willthrill81
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by willthrill81 »

wolf359 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:47 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:57 pm How does having a low-interest mortgage loan hedge you against inflation?

You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way.
Having a low fixed-rate mortgage means you don't have to pull the money out - it was never "in" to begin with.
Someone else said they took money out.
A paid off mortgage is terrific, if someone else paid it off for you. Otherwise, you took your money from somewhere and put it into the walls of your home, rather than having it in a portfolio that could beat inflation.
That doesn't explain anything, sorry. Another poster said that a house with a mortgage was an inflation hedge. I was curious what difference the mortgage makes. Isn't the house itself (paid off or not), an inflation hedge?

You are saying the opposite. You are saying that a house is not an inflation hedge, but the correct inflation hedge is to invest in a portfolio than can beat inflation.
To some degree, the house itself is an inflation hedge. Real estate tends to increase at the same rate as inflation. Over some time periods it may beat inflation, but over very long periods it just matches it. This also varies by location -- if the economy in your city/town is going down, your values might be dropping.
But the important point here is that it's the real estate that's purchased with the mortgage that is the inflation hedge and not the mortgage.
“Good and ill have not changed since yesteryear; nor are they one thing among Elves and Dwarves and another among Men.” J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings
lws
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by lws »

Retired.
Started out in the 70's.
Inflation is not a concern.
Pension is COLA .
Live 100% off pension.
House paid of.
Heirs will be happy if all goes well.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by JoeRetire »

Engaging in sloth wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:22 pm Having your house paid off is tremendous peace-of-mind. And very importantly, believe it or not, the market can drop for quite awhile. If you have a $400k mortgage and use that $ for investing, instead of having the house paid off,- what happens when the market drops 50%. Now you are down $200k plus you owe $400k on the house. Not a good idea, especially for a retiree.
What part of that has anything to do with inflation?
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Devil's Advocate
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by Devil's Advocate »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:54 am
wolf359 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:47 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:57 pm How does having a low-interest mortgage loan hedge you against inflation?

You pull money out, but you have to invest it somewhere, and it has to beat inflation (AND the interest rate on the loan) for you to make money that way.
Having a low fixed-rate mortgage means you don't have to pull the money out - it was never "in" to begin with.
Someone else said they took money out.
A paid off mortgage is terrific, if someone else paid it off for you. Otherwise, you took your money from somewhere and put it into the walls of your home, rather than having it in a portfolio that could beat inflation.
That doesn't explain anything, sorry. Another poster said that a house with a mortgage was an inflation hedge. I was curious what difference the mortgage makes. Isn't the house itself (paid off or not), an inflation hedge?

You are saying the opposite. You are saying that a house is not an inflation hedge, but the correct inflation hedge is to invest in a portfolio than can beat inflation.
To some degree, the house itself is an inflation hedge. Real estate tends to increase at the same rate as inflation. Over some time periods it may beat inflation, but over very long periods it just matches it. This also varies by location -- if the economy in your city/town is going down, your values might be dropping.
But the important point here is that it's the real estate that's purchased with the mortgage that is the inflation hedge and not the mortgage.
For many people (now myself included) one can't have one without the other. So it's semantics to point out its the real estate that's the hedge and not the mortgage. For those of us who wouldn't have been able to purchase our homes (and land in my instance) outright it makes no difference.

(I mean technically we could have bought our land and built our house outright, but that would have required us to liquidate other investments and since that was not ideal and mortgage rates are LOW we used the mortgage to get what we wanted)

DA
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willthrill81
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by willthrill81 »

Devil's Advocate wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:54 am
wolf359 wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:47 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:24 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:06 pm
Having a low fixed-rate mortgage means you don't have to pull the money out - it was never "in" to begin with.
Someone else said they took money out.
A paid off mortgage is terrific, if someone else paid it off for you. Otherwise, you took your money from somewhere and put it into the walls of your home, rather than having it in a portfolio that could beat inflation.
That doesn't explain anything, sorry. Another poster said that a house with a mortgage was an inflation hedge. I was curious what difference the mortgage makes. Isn't the house itself (paid off or not), an inflation hedge?

You are saying the opposite. You are saying that a house is not an inflation hedge, but the correct inflation hedge is to invest in a portfolio than can beat inflation.
To some degree, the house itself is an inflation hedge. Real estate tends to increase at the same rate as inflation. Over some time periods it may beat inflation, but over very long periods it just matches it. This also varies by location -- if the economy in your city/town is going down, your values might be dropping.
But the important point here is that it's the real estate that's purchased with the mortgage that is the inflation hedge and not the mortgage.
For many people (now myself included) one can't have one without the other. So it's semantics to point out its the real estate that's the hedge and not the mortgage. For those of us who wouldn't have been able to purchase our homes (and land in my instance) outright it makes no difference.

(I mean technically we could have bought our land and built our house outright, but that would have required us to liquidate other investments and since that was not ideal and mortgage rates are LOW we used the mortgage to get what we wanted)

DA
Some have no choice but to buy real estate with a mortgage. But many here do have a choice, and it's important for them to realize the important distinction.
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MHA556
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by MHA556 »

Well I retired a year ago, with a good pension amount, but it has a crummy COLA, I fall behind at any inflation beyond 1.66% yearly. So the last thing I want to see is high inflation, as I fall behind at low inflation rates already!

Wife is still working, but she is a teacher, they have gone years sometimes without raises or COLA’s, so who knows if her pay will adjust and how long it may take to even out.

Had I known it was going to happen this fast I think I would have done things differently. Whether that means waiting longer to retire or just finding a retirement part time job before pulling the plug. Stuff like this makes “one more year” thinking look smart. This would have been a good year to just wait and see how it plays out before making major moves.

Just because I have the means to deal with inflation issues (thru retirement accounts) does not mean that I actually wanted to be forced to rely on them at all, especially so early on in my retirement. Small changes happening at the front end have large consequences on the tail end.

I could refi the house but we are close to being paid off, and I don’t have anything identified to invest it or use it on, so that hasn’t gone anywhere. Just not sure what to do beyond hanging on and going with the flow.
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by flyingaway »

I am looking for buying tons of cat food that can be stored for 30 years, so that I can beat any safe withdrawal rates.

I am also looking for a bridge that will survive the next 30 years, so that I can build my camp there.
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by Golf maniac »

I retired 6 years ago. My portfolio is larger now than when I retired. When I hit 70 I will not need to withdraw any of my portfolio. About 50% of my spending is discretionary. So I can reduce my spending tremendously if needed. So even inflation for a few years at 4 to 6% does not concern me from a financial perspective. Hyper inflation would blow everything up and we would all be looking to slaughter any hog we could find.
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Re: Inflation 2021/2022 and your retirement plans

Post by willthrill81 »

flyingaway wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:37 pm I am looking for buying tons of cat food that can be stored for 30 years, so that I can beat any safe withdrawal rates.
Wheat berries and rice will easily store for 30 years or longer in a zero oxygen environment. A grown adult would consume about #150 lbs. of either as a primary food source. That much weight in wheat berries can be purchased for about $200 right now, and the rice would be about $160. So an even mix of 30 years' worth for one adult would be $5,400. That's very cheap starvation insurance. :wink:
flyingaway wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:37 pm I am also looking for a bridge that will survive the next 30 years, so that I can build my camp there.
It might get crowded under there.
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