Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

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Mr.BB
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Mr.BB »

Has your father in-law show you his rate of return from his investing style?
Another factor you have to look at is how many more years are you going to be in the market vs. your FIL?
Peter Lynch said it best...“Far More Money Has Been Lost By Investors Preparing For Corrections, Or Trying To Anticipate Corrections, Than Has Been Lost In Corrections Themselves.”

Ignore your family members and stay the course.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:39 am My father in law watches tons of videos and research on all the craziness in the world of politics and future finances. He's watched things about the banking system going corrupt and our money not being safe in banks or the stock market. He says things are "going to crash hard." He's encouraging me to buy silver and gold, and he purchased a safe to put all his cash in and silver coins.

My wife watches a lot of "followers" on Instagram as well who have been preaching the same thing who apparently know "what's going on", so I'm getting it from all angles. They are people who advocate stocking up on food and water in case crap hits the fan with the way our country is going.
you're fine. you should wonder why your FIL and wife enjoy watching financial porn (Jane Bryant Quinn's term for financial pundits who are carrying on to titilate and excite but provide no real valid or actionable advice).

why for instance do they choose to pay attention to bozos on social media rather than learning from history:

what the "experts" had to say:

Image

"reasons" to sell??:

Image

climbing a wall of worry (2008-2018):

Image

climbing a wall of worry (1957-2016):

Image

climbing a wall of worry (1936-2016):

Image

history of world stock prices (back to 1500):

Image


But this time is different, right?

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

What do you think?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
mikejuss
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by mikejuss »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmwhat the "experts" had to say: Image
Who the heck is Robert Wiedemer and how can I do the opposite of whatever he advises for the rest of my life? :mrgreen:
Mr.BB
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Mr.BB »

mikejuss wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:24 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmwhat the "experts" had to say: Image
Wow--who the heck is Robert Wiedemer and how can I do the opposite of whatever he advises for the rest of my life? :mrgreen:
+1
$50 bucks says if the OP shows his FIL these charts he will say "This time is different."
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
case_of_ennui
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by case_of_ennui »

mikejuss wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:24 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmwhat the "experts" had to say: Image
Who the heck is Robert Wiedemer and how can I do the opposite of whatever he advises for the rest of my life? :mrgreen:

Looks like it's this guy

https://www.arkfinria.com/team
Robert Wiedemer co-wrote the landmark book that predicted the current downturn in the economy in 2006
Odd, no mention of his other predictions. :D
Mr.BB
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Mr.BB »

JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:04 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:59 am I‘m not saying things aren’t bad or that I can predict anything, but I want to relay a story.

In 1996, when I was in my 20s, a coworker in his 50s who had a temporary position where he was earning less than his prior job came to my office and told me, close to hysterically, how the world, economy and markets were going to heck etc, would crash and burn, how the fundamentals weren‘t sound, and backed it up with scientific seeming articles.

I looked at him cooly and thought - he‘s just upset because he‘s burned out in midlife and HIS life individually is going to heck.

It‘s not even that it’s inaccurate - it just seems that someone is always saying that the world is going to heck. Maybe the nature of the world is that there are constant problems and catastrophes. But there are also many great things and opportunities so it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t invest.
It's funny you say this because he admits he hasn't been the best with money and wasn't taught much growing up. He said a few days ago that he will likely have to work until probably 70, and is hoping that the Crypto XRP really takes off. He even said that "I really need that to start producing or things aren't looking good for us (meaning he and his wife). He has put about $5K into XRP and has suggested I do the same. I haven't bought a single share.
:oops:
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."
mikejuss
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by mikejuss »

case_of_ennui wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:32 pm
mikejuss wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:24 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmwhat the "experts" had to say: Image
Who the heck is Robert Wiedemer and how can I do the opposite of whatever he advises for the rest of my life? :mrgreen:

Looks like it's this guy

https://www.arkfinria.com/team
Robert Wiedemer co-wrote the landmark book that predicted the current downturn in the economy in 2006
Odd, no mention of his other predictions. :D
I guess we shouldn't be surprised that an active money manager would want to scare people into investing with him rather than staying the course themselves.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:39 am My wife watches a lot of "followers" on Instagram as well who have been preaching the same thing who apparently know "what's going on", so I'm getting it from all angles. They are people who advocate stocking up on food and water in case crap hits the fan with the way our country is going.
if these influencers know what's going on, why aren't they shorting the heck out of the market if they think the doomsday apocolypse is upon us any day now?

why isn't your wife and FIL shorting the market if they're sure of an imminent crash?

It's not enough to sell your investments.

If you really have the courage of your convictions, you'd short the market.

If you're not, then how sure are you really?

(I could punch holes in people's failed logic all day long).

the future is unkonwn and unknowable.

people who make predictions act like they know the future.

can they?

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

the market falls every year. they're called intrayear losses. Thing is, the market has recovered from all of them so far. We recovered from the Great Depression too. If you invest, you have to be prepared for declines every single year, on average around -14%. Thing is, just because the market falls at some point during the year, doesn't mean you lose money. Last year was a good example. The market fell 32% in one month (Feb 21-Mar 20) but then recovered by July and ended the year up 20% for the entire year (Jan-Dec), total stock market index fund. S&P500 performance slightly different below:

Image

but even though there were declines every single year, the market went up over the course of the entire year 75% of the time, had you just bought and held.

your choice.

I wouldn't worry about your FIL unless your wife will put pressure on you to support him due to his bad decisions.

I would, however, work with your wife to understand how real investing works, and stop listening to influencers. They don't have it all figured out. Gabby Petito (may she RIP) is an example of that. There are plenty other examples if you need them.

If your wife torpedos her 401k/IRA then that will potentially affect both of you and how long you may have to work, etc. So you should get on the same page and work towards your common goals and not deviate.

For one thing, she should (and you too, both) have an IPS and review and stick to it. If you don't have an IPS, you're likely to change things everytime an influencer tries to influence you.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/IPS

you might also want to read the book Influence by Robert Cialdini. You'll learn a lot.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
exodusNH
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by exodusNH »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pm
JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:39 am My father in law watches tons of videos and research on all the craziness in the world of politics and future finances. He's watched things about the banking system going corrupt and our money not being safe in banks or the stock market. He says things are "going to crash hard." He's encouraging me to buy silver and gold, and he purchased a safe to put all his cash in and silver coins.

My wife watches a lot of "followers" on Instagram as well who have been preaching the same thing who apparently know "what's going on", so I'm getting it from all angles. They are people who advocate stocking up on food and water in case crap hits the fan with the way our country is going.
you're fine. you should wonder why your FIL and wife enjoy watching financial porn (Jane Bryant Quinn's term for financial pundits who are carrying on to titilate and excite but provide no real valid or actionable advice).

why for instance do they choose to pay attention to bozos on social media rather than learning from history:

what the "experts" had to say:

Image

"reasons" to sell??:

Image

climbing a wall of worry (2008-2018):

Image

climbing a wall of worry (1957-2016):

Image

climbing a wall of worry (1936-2016):

Image

history of world stock prices (back to 1500):

Image


But this time is different, right?

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

What do you think?
This should be a pinned post.
nigel_ht
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by nigel_ht »

eye.surgeon wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:39 pm
JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:39 am Hi Folks,

I think I need some reminder and grounding here. My wife and I are 36. Current investment accounts total around $183K. My father in law watches tons of videos and research on all the craziness in the world of politics and future finances. He's watched things about the banking system going corrupt and our money not being safe in banks or the stock market. He says things are "going to crash hard." He's encouraging me to buy silver and gold, and he purchased a safe to put all his cash in and silver coins.

My wife watches a lot of "followers" on Instagram as well who have been preaching the same thing who apparently know "what's going on", so I'm getting it from all angles. They are people who advocate stocking up on food and water in case crap hits the fan with the way our country is going.

I currently have an 85/15 AA. I contribute 21% to our 401K and am about $4K from maxing out two Roths. I am on pace to max our 401K for the first time so feel really excited about this, but now have comments being made from my father in law and wife about either taking money out or stopping contributions (I get this more from my father in law). My wife knows very little about finances, but that it seems like we "need to do something."

There certainly is an uneasiness about our current state of the world and food shortages certainly have shown up recently. Things in the world is obviously just hard to think about, but responding to it emotionally doesn't seem to be the answer.

Any thoughts on how to respond to these comments or just your guys reaction to all this? Thanks!
Consider that in reality the last 50 years have been amongst the most conflict-free prosperous peaceful times in the history of the world and that there have been more people during that time lifted out of poverty than at any time in history. Of course your father in law would have have to turn off the crazies to get that message.
Peter Turchin has a theory about increasing turmoil in the next decade…

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/616993/
Pu239
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Pu239 »

OP - I'd spend some time slowly educating your wife about why you invest the Boglehead way. It may take some time but it is critical that she understands why to ignore the noise and drumbeat of doom and gloom. If she gets it, she may have more influence with FIL than you do. I personally think stockpiling a small stash of food stuffs and supplies, a la Andrew Tobias, is prudent since emergencies and shortages do happen from time to time and it can be cheaper to purchase staples in bulk. Likewise with owning a small percentage of precious metals for asset diversification/insurance purposes. And a stout emergency fund goes a long way to relieving anxiety in times of market turmoil. Perhaps having your wife work on organizing the household emergency aspects (within reason - I'm not talking about making prepper changes) and you working on the financials would be a way to address any concerns she may have. Getting your wife on your side is key to your long-term prosperity.

I lived through the Great Inflation/Howard Ruff years; does your FIL know about Ruff and that period of history? Things didn't work out so well for Ruff and the gold bugs although he made a bundle selling his books and newsletter. As events turned out, most folks who followed his advice likely were poorer for it. I hope your FIL avoids that kind of fate.
Between the idea And the reality...Between the motion And the act...Falls the Shadow - T. S. Eliot
delamer
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by delamer »

I’d certainly point out to your wife that she’s paying more attention to the opinions of random strangers on the internet — as is her father — than her own husband.

(And, yes, I’m married.)
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. | | Alexandre Dumas, fils
Cheyenne
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Cheyenne »

Tell him thanks and say you already did it.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by fyre4ce »

JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:55 am
JSPECO9 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:49 am You should play along with whatever he says just to keep the peace. Don't dispute anything he says. You and your wife are doing great, keep investing as per your IPS.
That's what I've been doing so far. "Oh really?" "Wow, hopefully it doesn't crash." I try to keep it neutral. But he brings it up very often. "So have you done anything yet?" He actually said he watched a recent video of Robert Kiyosaki saying the market will crash it's hardest on October 24th-October 30th...something like that. I know this guy is a worthless POS, so I don't give it any time of day. So I'm looking forward to that week coming and nothing happening, maybe the market even going up.

I do feel very behind at the age of 36 in regards to our investments, but that's why I'm trying to dump as much in as I can.
Ramjet wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:49 am Does something in your FIL's background make him an expert on the market?
Other than all the videos he watches on Bitchute...no.
Invoking Robert Kiyosaki’s name should be huge red flag, among many others. That’s one step above saying you should put all your money in hedge funds because Bernie Madoff says you can’t lose.
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wander
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by wander »

If the father in law is a multi-millionaire, the Op should listen to what he needs to say or the spouse may risk losing inheritance. Otherwise, don't bother. :dollar
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Duckie
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Duckie »

exodusNH wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:36 pm The next potential computer problem is 2038. I don't think this has the same potential as 2000, but I think people will deal with more little glitches.
What is it about the year 2038 that could cause computer problems?
jarjarM
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by jarjarM »

Duckie wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:36 pm
exodusNH wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:36 pm The next potential computer problem is 2038. I don't think this has the same potential as 2000, but I think people will deal with more little glitches.
What is it about the year 2038 that could cause computer problems?
Here you go 8-) It's related to how unix stores time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
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Duckie
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Duckie »

jarjarM wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:40 pm
Duckie wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:36 pm What is it about the year 2038 that could cause computer problems?
Here you go 8-) It's related to how unix stores time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
Thanks.
exodusNH
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by exodusNH »

Duckie wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:36 pm
exodusNH wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:36 pm The next potential computer problem is 2038. I don't think this has the same potential as 2000, but I think people will deal with more little glitches.
What is it about the year 2038 that could cause computer problems?
jarjarM responded. But it's an embedded assumption in Unix since the 70s. There has been work to mitigate the issue, and newer version of Unix (and Linux) have workarounds, but there are a lot of special purpose equipment that runs custom forks that might not get updated, as well as code that makes assumptions.

Hopefully all of that equipment will have failed/been replaced by then, but I bet there will be a few annoyances.

The next GPS week rollover is going to happen that year as well. We had some minor issues in 2019.
CA lifter
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by CA lifter »

You have joint finances with your wife, you both have to be comfortable with the plan. Some combination of educating her in *why* you like investing the way you do AND potentially backing off the asset allocation a bit to include some gold or cash might keep the peace. Another option is to hand over control of her IRA investments to her - if she wants to go all-bonds or cash, let her. The money belongs to both of you.

The answer to "what happens if the market crashes and we lose everything" is pretty simple at your age - you keep working, adjust spending, and recover. If you stay healthy and employable, you're fine in the long run.

If your wife's concerns are about natural disasters / supply chain disruptions / shortages, start by making basic preparations that will see your family through the immediate aftermath. Ready.gov has lists of recommended disaster kit contents; so does the AARP. Neither site is "social media" or extremist - they just acknowledge things happen somewhere in the USA every year.

Start with enough supplies that you will be self-sufficient for 72 hours with no power or running water. From there see what you can afford and have space for in your home. If you live in snowstorm, hurricane, earthquake, or flood country (pretty much anywhere), you may want at least 2 weeks of food and water. Food doesn't have to be expensive freeze-dried disaster products; establish a pantry of dry/canned food you eat anyway, and keep it rotated. There's an up-front cost, but as long as you rotate the food there's no long-term increase - it was food you'd eat anyhow.
bgvg
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by bgvg »

Is there a dating site for Bogleheads or Bogleheadish types? If you can’t pull her out of the rabbit hole, you might have to start looking. Hopefully, she is a rational and not a gullible person.

Sometimes a divorce makes sense especially if your nest egg isn’t too large and you don’t have children.
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Nicolas
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Nicolas »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:11 pm
We get people here all the time that are WILDLY successful in life, and yet somehow can't do simple math.

"I have $10 million and spend $80k a year... Can I retire?"
What you’re seeing is not innumeracy, it’s braggadocio.
Last edited by Nicolas on Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

He just wants to know his son in law respects him. Let him know in subtle ways that you do - hopefully for skills or qualities that he has unrelated to investing - and probably he‘ll lay off this tack.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by 3feetpete »

Right after a crash is also a good time to do Roth Conversions. 100k converted during the Covid shutdown of 2020 could be worth almost 200k today. And you never have to pay taxes on that gain or future gains.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by srt7 »

lazynovice wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:36 pm
When he brings this stuff up, try to flip the conversation to “what is your retirement plan?” “Is he going to be able to live on his social security?” “How much does he think he needs in his portfolio to supplement social security?” Get into his business. It will get him out of yours in a hurry.
This.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by JoeRetire »

Hebell wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:41 pm They have what many would consider legitimate concerns about inflation.
Did I miss something? I don't see one word from the OP about inflation.

Maybe you meant some other "they"?
Just remember: it's not a lie if you believe it.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Dottie57 »

sailaway wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:01 am It has always been so.

If I genuinely believed society were going to collapse in the near future, I would be more interested in certain skills than silver and gold.
This.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by JoeRetire »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmWhat do you think?
I think nobody ever convinces this type of skeptic by showing them a bunch of charts.
Just remember: it's not a lie if you believe it.
Gundy
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Gundy »

Let's say you give the "stay the course" speech to your wife.

Then the market crashes. What happens next?
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Michael Patrick »

I've lived through the oil crisis, the Great Depression Recession, a number of smaller recessions, and now a worldwide pandemic. And I'm still on track to retire when I planned, despite never pulling my money out of the market and in fact continuing to invest through all of that.

<edited>

To correct which financial calamity I really lived through...
Last edited by Michael Patrick on Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nicolas
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Nicolas »

Michael Patrick wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:54 pm I've lived through the oil crisis, the Great Depression, a number of smaller recessions, and now a worldwide pandemic. And I'm still on track to retire when I planned, despite never pulling my money out of the market and in fact continuing to invest through all of that.
I think you mean “Great Recession”, not “Great Depression”, unless you’re quite a bit older than I think you are.
You never miss your water till your well runs dry.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

JoeRetire wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:49 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:20 pmWhat do you think?
I think nobody ever convinces this type of skeptic by showing them a bunch of charts.
Yes because emotional narrative always trumps logical arguments backed by evidence. It may not work for FIL but if wifey torpedoes her 401k and IRA that will cause OP to work longer. They're either working together or not.

My signature applies in this scenario.
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
sailaway
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by sailaway »

Nicolas wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:16 pm
Michael Patrick wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:54 pm I've lived through the oil crisis, the Great Depression, a number of smaller recessions, and now a worldwide pandemic. And I'm still on track to retire when I planned, despite never pulling my money out of the market and in fact continuing to invest through all of that.
I think you mean “Great Recession”, not “Great Depression”, unless you’re quite a bit older than I think you are.
And stretching for a very late retirement...
ronno2018
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by ronno2018 »

JPH wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:00 am Or how about this. Tell him you have $1 million in cash and are waiting for an opportunity to get in.
+100 LOL.
Good Listener
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Good Listener »

From a soon-to-be father-in-law who's daughter and future son-in-law have 20 times what you were talking about. I wouldn't dare give them any investment advice unless they ask and then it would be very tempered. Why does he think he knows more than you? Answer he doesn't
AquaBliss
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by AquaBliss »

OP, Please read this article from 7+ years ago:
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-m ... ash-2014-7

What if you read it then and freaked out and sold everything!? You would have missed out in the biggest bull run in recent history. Then when would you have bought back in? Probably never, still waiting for the half off sale.

Stay.....The.....Course.
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Watty
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Watty »

JB2013 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:39 am .....
He says things are "going to crash hard." He's encouraging me to buy silver and gold, and he purchased a safe to put all his cash in and silver coins.

My wife watches a lot of "followers" on Instagram as well who have been preaching the same thing who apparently know "what's going on", so I'm getting it from all angles. ......
This is actually a really good sign that stocks are likely to do well.

If they were saying that you should mortgage your house and put everything into stocks, then you should really be worried.

I saw heard of people do that during the Dot Com bubble buildup and it did not end well.

That said, stocking up your pantry, and rotating the food, will cost you very little as long as you eventually use the food. That could also come in handy for something like an earthquake, hurricane, etc so there is little harm in that.

There will be a 20 or 30(or more) percent bear market sooner or later and that is normal. Just by random chance there will be some pundits who predicted that at the right time.
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Michael Patrick
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Michael Patrick »

Nicolas wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:16 pm
Michael Patrick wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:54 pm I've lived through the oil crisis, the Great Depression, a number of smaller recessions, and now a worldwide pandemic. And I'm still on track to retire when I planned, despite never pulling my money out of the market and in fact continuing to invest through all of that.
I think you mean “Great Recession”, not “Great Depression”, unless you’re quite a bit older than I think you are.
Doh! I'm old, but not that old... :D
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by kilkoyne »

Cheyenne wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:09 pm Tell him thanks and say you already did it.
And follow up with "when should I put it back in?"
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by goblue100 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:22 am Here's the thing... the 10% nominal long-term return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes.

Read that again.

What that means, in the past, you didn't have to avoid the crashes to get a very good long-term return and become wealthy.

You can ride the next crash, which may indeed start tomorrow (or maybe in 3 years), all the way down and all the way back up again, and still make a very good return.

Sure, if you could avoid the crash, and only invest during the up years, you'd make even more... But that's really hard. Not impossible, but hard. And if you guess wrong trying to make more, you'll end up making less.

But the easy way to wealth, so far, is just buy and hold right through the crashes.

You do need a good emergency fund, and it's a good idea to have SOME money in bonds/cash to ride out a crash if you lose your job, but it's a very bad idea to get completely out of the market. 85/15 is a good AA for 36.

Definitely don't stop contributing.

Buy some a few boxes of Ritz crackers, toilet paper, and a few cases of water bottles if that will make the wife happier. You can always have cheese and crackers in the future if things go well.
Please read the above again. Absorb it.
Your FIL WILL be right at some point. The thing is, you don't know if it will be in 2022 or 2023 or 2024 or, well, you get the point. What's the quote? oh yeah:
“Far More Money Has Been Lost By Investors Preparing For Corrections, Or Trying To Anticipate Corrections, Than Has Been Lost In Corrections Themselves.” – Peter Lynch.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Carguy85 »

This thread reminds me of my bro’s FIL...buys everything on credit, churns cards, has refied his home many many times to save a fraction of a percent here or there, plays the timeshare/vacation club game, etc. The “one upper” type. I got a bit of a laugh out of it when my bro told me he sold when (I think he means after) the market crashed in 2020..he also thinks he is so smart (will gladly tell you about it) leveraging everything and paying several percent in managed fees on some fund he buys through fidelity that supposidly has a record of doing much better than SP500. Silly silly . I don’t have to worry about those conversations with my FIL given he seems to enjoy living day to day and has no investments. :D At least he doesn’t have the know it all attitude. Anyhow my wife knows next to nothing about investments but understands TINA. I do sometimes on bad days say “well.. looks like we lost $40k today (or whatever it may be) today in the market”....I’m usually triggered for whatever reason to tell her if it’s close to what I paid for my truck.
Last edited by Carguy85 on Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by getthatmarshmallow »

"Thanks. I've thought hard about what you said and I've chosen my portfolio to ensure we are resilient in the event of a crash. We can get through downturns and we have emergency beef/water/crackers."

[you don't have to tell him you haven't changed a blessed thing.]

More seriously, personal finance is personal and you need an asset allocation that's fine for you and your wife. She's the relevant audience here. Get her some better information sources than silverbugs.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Nicolas »

Carguy85 wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:16 pm Anyhow my wife knows next to nothing about investments but understands TINA.
TINA? The urban dictionary definition doesn’t seem to fit the context.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by JohnFiscal »

Nicolas wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:32 pm TINA? The urban dictionary definition doesn’t seem to fit the context.
Maybe it's There Is No Alternative ?
Carguy85
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Carguy85 »

There Is No Alternative......I will sometimes reinforce this by saying well I suppose we could buy whole life/annuities or put it under our mattress and guarantee we lose in the long run. We are both in agreement as well with having a bit of stock in true precious metals (brass,steel,lead). We both think gold and silver as a hedge against the crashing of civilization are...well...beyond our understanding.
Last edited by Carguy85 on Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by GlacierRunner »

CA lifter wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:16 pm You have joint finances with your wife, you both have to be comfortable with the plan. Some combination of educating her in *why* you like investing the way you do AND potentially backing off the asset allocation a bit to include some gold or cash might keep the peace. Another option is to hand over control of her IRA investments to her - if she wants to go all-bonds or cash, let her. The money belongs to both of you.

The answer to "what happens if the market crashes and we lose everything" is pretty simple at your age - you keep working, adjust spending, and recover. If you stay healthy and employable, you're fine in the long run.

If your wife's concerns are about natural disasters / supply chain disruptions / shortages, start by making basic preparations that will see your family through the immediate aftermath. Ready.gov has lists of recommended disaster kit contents; so does the AARP. Neither site is "social media" or extremist - they just acknowledge things happen somewhere in the USA every year.

Start with enough supplies that you will be self-sufficient for 72 hours with no power or running water. From there see what you can afford and have space for in your home. If you live in snowstorm, hurricane, earthquake, or flood country (pretty much anywhere), you may want at least 2 weeks of food and water. Food doesn't have to be expensive freeze-dried disaster products; establish a pantry of dry/canned food you eat anyway, and keep it rotated. There's an up-front cost, but as long as you rotate the food there's no long-term increase - it was food you'd eat anyhow.
+1

And I will add a discussion beyond investments and emergency preparedness (September was EP month!) may also be in order. It may be time to sit down and have a full review of all your assets and liabilities. Is there debt that is unnecessarily increasing risk - and thus anxiety? Should a focus of next year be paying that down?

Is your health insurance, life insurance and disability insurance adequate for your needs? Does your wife know that? Open enrollment is likely coming up soon and you may have a chance to make necessary changes. If changes aren't necessary, your wife will likely appreciate the overview and reminder.

This time of year is a great time to set goals for next year and check-in with how both of you are doing.
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Beensabu »

Why can't your wife prep, your FIL hoard physical cash and silver, and you invest? Then the family has all the bases covered. Try that. You're the "in case they're wrong" plan. They're the "in case you're wrong" plan. I bet they'll go for that and leave you be.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: Father in law is telling me to pull money out of the market

Post by Chadnudj »

jerrysmith wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:28 am If all that stuff were to happen it wouldn't matter where your money was it would all be worthless and the least of your problems. None of this (market) really makes any tangible sense tbh to might as well play the game.
Yeah, this is kind of where I come down on all the real doom and gloom prophecies.

"Oh, you're saying that soon the entire stock market will be worthless and the U.S. dollar will be worth nothing? Well, then, I hate to tell you, but having gold and silver isn't going to matter either unless we can avoid the marauding hordes of heavily armed bandits, poisoned water supplies, and nuclear fallout."

Beef up your cash emergency fund a bit? Make your AA a bit more conservative? Sure. Totally fine.

But pull your money out of the markets and put it in physical gold? Uh, no. You'd be better off buying ammunition and foot/water/battery or generator supplies for a safehouse bunker.
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