WoW2012 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:10 pm
Prediction: the exemptions will exceed 500,000.
It will be interesting to see what the numbers are. I have to imagine we'll know in early 2022 (I can't see many people buying a policy before November 2021 and waiting till late 2022 to file for the exemption), and I would guess many people that purchased LTC coverage would be submitting early. Obvilusy we know it will be over 95k.
I was wondering how I would estimate the opt out number. I didn't spent a lot of time on it, but went over to datausa.io and looked at the 2019 wage distribution stats (https://datausa.io/profile/geo/washington#income_distro
- The over $100k population is about 640k
- The $100-150k populations is about 375k
- The $100k to $200k population is about 510k
- The over $150k population is about 260k
- The over $200k population is about 130k
Everyones situation is unique, but I would doubt too many folks under $100k are opting out. It might make sense for some that are early in the career and are paying attention to these things. I would still think its small.
If you are over $200k and can obtain a plan I would guess most did, if they are paying attention.
So really it comes down to how much of the ~510k population between $100k and $200k did it i) make sense for someone to get a private policy, ii) are aware they needed to, and iii) did.
If I were a betting man I'd think somewhere between 250k and 300k opt-out (assuming it doesn't become a free for all of folks attesting they have a plan but dont really since it was just a click of the button). Simply I think its the $150k+ population + some folks from the under $150k ranks that are thinking ahead, offset by a portion of the $150k+ that either can't get a policy or haven't been paying attention.
Again, will be interesting to see where the numbers end up in early 2022.