U.S. stocks in free fall

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marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:53 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:52 pm People have been saying something along those lines during every little, and not so little, dip for the last decade.

Eventually, they will be right, and then claim what a genius they are for having predicted it.
I guess I'll be on MSNBC soon then. :sharebeer
You are setting your sights too low.
Prof. Shiller got a Nobel prize.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
investorpeter
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by investorpeter »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:51 pm Can anyone explain whats causing this drop. [Expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] I just bought 300k car and wonder if i should cancel and wait for price to drop.
I would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:56 pm
000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:44 pm Well so far I'm glad I derisked a bit on Friday but I'm skeptical that this is The End. Still too many publicly unabashed bears and too much worry for this to be the last stand of the bulls before slaughter.
Are you sure? I remember there were still a lot of bears at previous market tops.
No, I'm not sure but I don't really see euphoria in investor sentiment.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:42 pm "The market" is thousands of companies, each with their own set of books, earnings, news, innovation, technology, product lines, etc.

There are millions of people making purchases, selling, trading, etc. on any given day. These people impact "the market."

"The market" doesn't go up or down by itself. "The market" goes up or down based on the weighted average of the movements of its components.

Asking why "the market" went up or down is asking why each of thousands of companies trended the way that they did.
Well said.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:02 pm
HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:56 pm
000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:44 pm Well so far I'm glad I derisked a bit on Friday but I'm skeptical that this is The End. Still too many publicly unabashed bears and too much worry for this to be the last stand of the bulls before slaughter.
Are you sure? I remember there were still a lot of bears at previous market tops.
No, I'm not sure but I don't really see euphoria in investor sentiment.
This is being discussed in another thread. Are you going by a "feel", or something numerical? If the latter, what is it?

For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/

Having some people perceiving euphoria and some not is also something that happens at market tops. So I'm not seeing a differentiator. That's why I prefer numbers over subjective perceptions.
VBIAX and chill
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by placeholder »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:27 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:08 pm Not looking good
Buddy, as I mentioned this is actually good for the DCA camp. If you had lump summed, there's no option to buy cheaper.
The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 am The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Who said this downturn has already ended? 9/2 was the ATH, any purchase below that level would thrive when we renew the ATH.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:39 am
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 am The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Who said this downturn has already ended? 9/2 was the ATH, any purchase below that level would thrive when we renew the ATH.
LOL. You guys are trying to find stuff where there's nothing. This isn't a "downturn." It's just the market doing what it's always done.
hnd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hnd »

I'm in a few Facebook groups that discuss investing. a few of them are dedicated to mutual funds. around june of last year the membership of these groups nearly tripled as people with nothing to do began to manage their own investments.

what transpires in these periods of time is nothing short of hilarity

"Whats up with this crash?"

"losing money every day WHAT SHOULD I DO?"

my true favorite though are the people who purchased morgan stanley, virtus ziehhbadhfrgagen, and ARK funds/etfs last year at ATH's and dumping them or questioning why they aren't continuing their 100%+ growth.

I dipped my toes in responding for a short time. I just sit back and watch the show now.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

jdamo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:44 pm Could it be an early sell off like occurs typically in October every year? (folks say...)
Get ready to buy/do a rebalance if it's a substantial correction!
No one knows nothin'!
Just stay invested w proper asset allocation!
Cheers!
I posted this in the other thread: last year, September and October were both down:

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by placeholder »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:39 am
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 am The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Who said this downturn has already ended? 9/2 was the ATH, any purchase below that level would thrive when we renew the ATH.
That would be true if you came into cash to invest since that point but not if you've been holding cash for any length of time.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:35 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:39 am
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 am The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Who said this downturn has already ended? 9/2 was the ATH, any purchase below that level would thrive when we renew the ATH.
That would be true if you came into cash to invest since that point but not if you've been holding cash for any length of time.
That's fair, but it's not like the DCA people are sitting on 0/100 either. Their existing positions are making $ just fine.
placeholder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by placeholder »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:38 pm
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:35 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:39 am
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:14 am The s&p is now down to where it was 8/20 so dca people haven't seen much benefit.
Who said this downturn has already ended? 9/2 was the ATH, any purchase below that level would thrive when we renew the ATH.
That would be true if you came into cash to invest since that point but not if you've been holding cash for any length of time.
That's fair, but it's not like the DCA people are sitting on 0/100 either. Their existing positions are making $ just fine.
My original point was that dca people who have been sitting on cash (using that definition rather than regular contributions out of pay) didn't get much benefit even if they bought on the day after the "downturn" because it would be a small slice and really that value point is higher than most of the preceding year.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:46 pm My original point was that dca people who have been sitting on cash (using that definition rather than regular contributions out of pay) didn't get much benefit even if they bought on the day after the "downturn" because it would be a small slice and really that value point is higher than most of the preceding year.
We're not out of the woods yet is what I'm saying. Too early to say the DCA camp didn't get much benefit, DCAing is not a one-day event.

I mean, DCAing is a defensive move. If stocks keep going up then lump summing obviously makes more money.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:56 pm
placeholder wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:46 pm My original point was that dca people who have been sitting on cash (using that definition rather than regular contributions out of pay) didn't get much benefit even if they bought on the day after the "downturn" because it would be a small slice and really that value point is higher than most of the preceding year.
We're not out of the woods yet is what I'm saying. Too early to say the DCA camp didn't get much benefit, DCAing is not a one-day event.
What we can say is you have been sitting on a pile for sometime now, and have been using DCA to slowly deploy that into the market, then you have already lost money on the portion that you are buying now relative to the cheaper price you could have paid a year or two ago. Maybe you will be able to buy at such a reduced price in the future that it will make up for it. That depends on what percentage of that pile is still left, and how far the market drops and stays down while you are deploying the rest. But, so far it has been a losing proposition, as it is most of the time, statistically speaking.

If on the other hand, what you call DCA is periodically investing money as it comes in (i.e., saving from a series of paychecks), that is a completely different story, as there was no opportunity to lump sum. I know many people call this DCA, but I view it as lump sump investing, as you are investing your entire lump sum as soon you have it. I think of DCA as the case where you have a pile of money and voluntarily decide to put in to the market a little at a time.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by placeholder »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:56 pm We're not out of the woods yet is what I'm saying. Too early to say the DCA camp didn't get much benefit, DCAing is not a one-day event.

I mean, DCAing is a defensive move. If stocks keep going up then lump summing obviously makes more money.
No dca is a psychological move.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:12 pm What we can say is you have been sitting on a pile for sometime now, and have been using DCA to slowly deploy that into the market, then you have already lost money on the portion that you are buying now relative to the cheaper price you could have paid a year or two ago. Maybe you will be able to buy at such a reduced price in the future that it will make up for it. That depends on what percentage of that pile is still left, and how far the market drops and stays down while you are deploying the rest. But, so far it has been a losing proposition, as it is most of the time, statistically speaking.
Nobody is losing money. You'd be crazy to call 60/40 losing money vs 100/0.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:17 pm
marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:12 pm What we can say is you have been sitting on a pile for sometime now, and have been using DCA to slowly deploy that into the market, then you have already lost money on the portion that you are buying now relative to the cheaper price you could have paid a year or two ago. Maybe you will be able to buy at such a reduced price in the future that it will make up for it. That depends on what percentage of that pile is still left, and how far the market drops and stays down while you are deploying the rest. But, so far it has been a losing proposition, as it is most of the time, statistically speaking.
Nobody is losing money. You'd be crazy to call 60/40 losing money vs 100/0.
Money is fungible.

A: You earn $100 and lose $10. Have $90.

B: You earn $10 less my making a different choice. Have $90.

Sure, B didn't "lose" $10, but it is exactly the same outcome as the better choice and losing $10.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:22 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:17 pm Nobody is losing money. You'd be crazy to call 60/40 losing money vs 100/0.
Money is fungible.

A: You earn $100 and lose $10. Have $90.

B: You earn $10 less my making a different choice. Have $90.

Sure, B didn't "lose" $10, but it is exactly the same outcome as the better choice and losing $10.
I lost a lot of money by not becoming a brain surgeon. I wish the IRS agreed!
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:22 pm Money is fungible.

A: You earn $100 and lose $10. Have $90.

B: You earn $10 less my making a different choice. Have $90.

Sure, B didn't "lose" $10, but it is exactly the same outcome as the better choice and losing $10.
Sure, and people make decisions based on circumstances and not everyone goes 100/0 all the time.

In fact, your example has nothing to do with DCA anyway, because same thing can be said for 100/0 vs 80/20 (no DCA, just rebalancing) held for a year.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:27 pm
marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:22 pm Money is fungible.

A: You earn $100 and lose $10. Have $90.

B: You earn $10 less my making a different choice. Have $90.

Sure, B didn't "lose" $10, but it is exactly the same outcome as the better choice and losing $10.
Sure, and people make decisions based on circumstances and not everyone goes 100/0 all the time.
Its not about being 60/40 or 100/0. It is about how you get to your desired allocation.

If you choose to be 60/40, and you have a pile of cash (in addition to your 60/40 portfolio), then you actual allocation to equity is a lot lower than the desired 60/40. You have two ways to get to your desired allocation. You can lump sum your cash into your portfolio at the desired allocation, or you can DCA the cash into your portfolio slowly getting to your desired allocation.

That is the essential choice between DCA and Lump Sum.
And, in this scenario, Lump Sump wins more often.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:33 pm Its not about being 60/40 or 100/0. It is about how you get to your desired allocation.

If you choose to be 60/40, and you have a pile of cash (in addition to your 60/40 portfolio), then you actual allocation to equity is a lot lower than the desired 60/40. You have two ways to get to your desired allocation. You can lump sum your cash into your portfolio at the desired allocation, or you can DCA the cash into your portfolio slowly getting to your desired allocation.

That is the essential choice between DCA and Lump Sum.
And, in this scenario, Lump Sump wins more often.
Sure, if you throw in the notion of moving toward your "desired allocation" then that's a fair claim.

Let me just say this, some people like the idea of Kitces' rising glidepath to mitigate SORR, which basically works like DCAing. But the intent is different.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Justify DCA any way you want. It's a psychological flaw and marcopolo is absolutely right regarding the opportunity cost.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:44 pm Justify DCA any way you want. It's a psychological flaw and marcopolo is absolutely right regarding the opportunity cost.
No one is disputing that. Obviously if you prepare for SORR and the markets just go up, not preparing for SORR is better. That's already well understood and you aren't adding anything new.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:52 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:44 pm Justify DCA any way you want. It's a psychological flaw and marcopolo is absolutely right regarding the opportunity cost.
No one is disputing that. Obviously if you prepare for SORR and the markets just go up, not preparing for SORR is better. That's already well understood and you aren't adding anything new.
I'm talking about accumulators, not people in retirement.

Also, people with a conservative AA in early retirement are not doing DCA. They're holding a conservative AA for a while.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:19 pm I'm talking about accumulators, not people in retirement.

Also, people with a conservative AA in early retirement are not doing DCA. They're holding a conservative AA for a while.
Kitces' bond tent starts *before retirement* (i.e. accumulators): https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:24 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:19 pm I'm talking about accumulators, not people in retirement.

Also, people with a conservative AA in early retirement are not doing DCA. They're holding a conservative AA for a while.
Kitces' bond tent starts *before retirement* (i.e. accumulators): https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/
Okay. I'm not talking about people close to retirement.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:41 pm Okay. I'm not talking about people close to retirement.
Oh, I thought you were talking about me. Never mind then.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

DCA (other than regular paycheck contributions) is for people who are forcing themselves to exceed their risk tolerance.

A person's risk tolerance dictates their optimal AA.

If they come into a windfall where the amount of that windfall is so large that they are uncomfortable investing it at their current AA, then that windfall has changed their circumstances to such an extent that their risk tolerance based on their new situation is now different. So they need to figure out what it actually is. It is whatever they feel comfortable investing in immediately.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:57 pm DCA (other than regular paycheck contributions) is for people who are forcing themselves to exceed their risk tolerance.

A person's risk tolerance dictates their optimal AA.

If they come into a windfall where the amount of that windfall is so large that they are uncomfortable investing it at their current AA, then that windfall has changed their circumstances to such an extent that their risk tolerance based on their new situation is now different. So they need to figure out what it actually is. It is whatever they feel comfortable investing in immediately.
Winner winner. If you're not comfortable with a certain AA now, why would you be comfortable with it after 12 months or whatever? It is so illogical.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Let's fire up this thread for today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

Gimme more red! I wanna buy on a solid discount next week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Retail sales beat, the jobs reports missed.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:00 pm This is being discussed in another thread. Are you going by a "feel", or something numerical? If the latter, what is it?

For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/

Having some people perceiving euphoria and some not is also something that happens at market tops. So I'm not seeing a differentiator. That's why I prefer numbers over subjective perceptions.
I agree that every metric we have is screaming Danger Ahead. But bulls don't die on valuation metrics. My subjective perception of investor chatter is that it is not euphoria. So, I have derisked to an appropriate level but not yet sold it all anticipating an incoming correction.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

000 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:39 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:00 pm This is being discussed in another thread. Are you going by a "feel", or something numerical? If the latter, what is it?

For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/

Having some people perceiving euphoria and some not is also something that happens at market tops. So I'm not seeing a differentiator. That's why I prefer numbers over subjective perceptions.
I agree that every metric we have is screaming Danger Ahead. But bulls don't die on valuation metrics. My subjective perception of investor chatter is that it is not euphoria. So, I have derisked to an appropriate level but not yet sold it all anticipating an incoming correction.
"Not yet"... do you mean that when you perceive euphoria, you will sell it all?

I'm pretty sure I won't ever do that. I'm a fan of Benjamin Graham's 75-25 rule. Since perception of euphoria is subjective, I choose to use that word when stock prices are at 1.5x historical median valuations or higher. We're at about 2x now. I de-risk to different levels depending on whether we're at 1.5x, 2x, 3x or whatever, the floor being 25% in equities. For me, this has nothing to do with predicting the end of a bull. I don't care whether the bull is about to die or not. It has only to do with limiting the amount of risk I'm willing to carry at any given moment. The bull can continue for another 10 years and go to 5x or 10x valuations, and I'll just keep on keeping on with whatever amount of equities that's consistent with my risk tolerance for that valuation level.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:10 am "Not yet"... do you mean that when you perceive euphoria, you will sell it all?
No current plans to sell it all. It would have to be a truly extraordinary circumstance. The risk of getting the timing wrong and losing to inflation is quite high. As an aside, the fact that most everyone else must be thinking the same thing means that a financial shock could be quite more punishing than recent corrections.
I'm pretty sure I won't ever do that. I'm a fan of Benjamin Graham's 75-25 rule. Since perception of euphoria is subjective, I choose to use that word when stock prices are at 1.5x historical median valuations or higher. We're at about 2x now. I de-risk to different levels depending on whether we're at 1.5x, 2x, 3x or whatever, the floor being 25% in equities. For me, this has nothing to do with predicting the end of a bull. I don't care whether the bull is about to die or not. It has only to do with limiting the amount of risk I'm willing to carry at any given moment. The bull can continue for another 10 years and go to 5x or 10x valuations, and I'll just keep on keeping on with whatever amount of equities that's consistent with my risk tolerance for that valuation level.
That seems reasonable enough, but I don't understand how that corresponds with your signature "VBIAX and chill". :confused
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

000 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:19 am That seems reasonable enough, but I don't understand how that corresponds with your signature "VBIAX and chill".
Well, just like euphoria is subjective, chill may be subjective as well. VBIAX is what I do in taxable, and I'm hands-off there. AA adjustment happens in tax-deferred, and I'm mostly in fixed income there. So that provides a chill to my overall AA.
VBIAX and chill
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Another day for this thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Lucky me. Had to sell a little QQQ today to take living expenses from our IRAs. :oops:

On the bright side, we got more than we would have last month. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BeansAndPotatoes »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:00 pm For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/
Valuations can only be high relatively to an alternative investment. So what I'm missing in that long list is something that compares valuations to interest rates.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

It's all about bonds and TINA. As bond yields go up, stocks will go down.

See today, for example.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

namajones wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:54 am It's all about bonds and TINA. As bond yields go up, stocks will go down.

See today, for example.
By that logic, equities and bonds are positively correlated...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

namajones wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:54 am It's all about bonds and TINA. As bond yields go up, stocks will go down.

See today, for example.
Yes, because two hours of trading is a representative sample of the way the markets behave.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I like that it's coming down. I prefer to consolidate for a while so that valuations come back down a little. I would not like a run up from here followed by a huge crash later.
BeansAndPotatoes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BeansAndPotatoes »

BeansAndPotatoes wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:41 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:00 pm For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/
Valuations can only be high relatively to an alternative investment. So what I'm missing in that long list is something that compares valuations to interest rates.
I found some data on this at YCharts. Looks to me like stocks today are still much cheaper than they were before the global financial crisis.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

BeansAndPotatoes wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:41 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:00 pm For a numerical approach, the Citi euphoria metric is interesting ("Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses"... August 2021, S&P at 4400). More interesting metrics here:
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-rada ... r-returns/
Valuations can only be high relatively to an alternative investment. So what I'm missing in that long list is something that compares valuations to interest rates.
Your meaning is that you don't know of any alternatives to a US broad stock market index fund, like VTI or VOO, other than bonds or a bond fund?
VBIAX and chill
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

When is the last time we had a 2% increase or decrease in the S&P 500 or total market in a day? It seems like it's been so boring lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:26 pm When is the last time we had a 2% increase or decrease in the S&P 500 or total market in a day? It seems like it's been so boring lately.
Yeah -

And when was the last 10% correction?

So boring. So much winning.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 3CT_Paddler »

investorpeter wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:51 pm Can anyone explain whats causing this drop. [Expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] I just bought 300k car and wonder if i should cancel and wait for price to drop.
I would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
I would add that it appears that China is at the start of what looks like our 2008 financial crisis. Imagine in the US if people were investing money left and right into the largest developer in the country, only a couple months later to have workers for that developer not get paid and lines of people show up outside their buildings to demand their money back - and then they are being told that they can only withdraw their money over 27 months. Its a classic run on the bank scenario. Once it starts with one developer, it will move to others. The CCP government has a greater ability to freeze funds and bail out than the US does, but nobody knows what will actually happen.

China is now the world's second largest economy - while we might not be joined at the hip with them, it would be silly to think there will not be downstream effects if things go the way of the US Great Recession in China.
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