U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:28 am
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 amOn the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
It's almost like you haven't learned anything from the people on this board or even your own experience.
What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. ..
-Captain, Cool Hand Luke.
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:03 am
rchmx1 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:05 pm
...The future has always been impossible to predict. That is a fundamental aspect of the future.
This is not really true. Some aspects of the future are easy to predict.

For instance, it is possible to predict the number of students who will enter high school in 2031 with great accuracy. Why? Because every single child who will enter high school then is alive today. Count them up and make some corrections for deaths, immigration, etc., and it is an easy prediction.

Other parts of the future are harder to predict...
The problem is knowing what is easy and what isn't.
For example, 3 years ago, I would have said it's easy to predict how many kids would get bussed to LA schools in 2020.
I would have been wrong by about 90%.

Moreover, when it comes to predicting profit opportunities in stock prices, you have to be able to accurately predict what others are NOT predicting.
Otherwise, "it's already priced in".
hoops777
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

My investment policy statement: I’m not adding any new money in until Forester calls for an 80-90% drop over ten years. Then I will continue to follow the opposite of his advice.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
What is happening around you?

I go to stores and restaurants and they are packed. Houses are being built in my neighborhood, golf-carts and boats have waiting lists. I see Amazon trucks every single day delivering packages to people.

My company posted record profits.

Looks to me like a lot of companies are making money.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Just came back from trip across country..looks like everything is booming.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:53 am It has been a slow bleed over the last couple of weeks. No real "crash" or anything like that, but we seem to be opening in the green nearly every day and sell off mid-morning. Oh well, at least my 401k buy won't go through at an ATH on Friday.
If I recall correctly, it was about the same last year. Slow bleed in September and October, then the market shot up in November and December. I keep reminding myself it's good because I have a bunch of $$ coming soon lol.
hoops777
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
DJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?

Yup.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
Well, I think he said it about the same time Washington was crossing the Delaware, so...
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm I stand by my statement.
I'm not disagreeing. I just don't know what to do with the information.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

namajones wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
DJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?

Yup.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
The market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.

No idea why you guys think this is unprecedented. This is normal... This is how the market works.

And yes, there will be a crash or bad decade. That's normal too. That is how the market works as well.

And the long-term average, so far, is still 9%-10% even though the market sometimes crashes, because it ALSO sometimes doubles in 4-5 years.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

No fear, this too shall pass. S&P 5000 by december
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:21 am
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:03 am This is not really true. Some aspects of the future are easy to predict.

For instance, it is possible to predict the number of students who will enter high school in 2031 with great accuracy. Why? Because every single child who will enter high school then is alive today. Count them up and make some corrections for deaths, immigration, etc., and it is an easy prediction.

Other parts of the future are harder to predict...
The problem is knowing what is easy and what isn't.
For example, 3 years ago, I would have said it's easy to predict how many kids would get bussed to LA schools in 2020.
I would have been wrong by about 90%.

Moreover, when it comes to predicting profit opportunities in stock prices, you have to be able to accurately predict what others are NOT predicting.
Otherwise, "it's already priced in".
Yep. Safe bets are safe until they're not or except when they weren't safe bets to begin with.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:19 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:53 am It has been a slow bleed over the last couple of weeks. No real "crash" or anything like that, but we seem to be opening in the green nearly every day and sell off mid-morning. Oh well, at least my 401k buy won't go through at an ATH on Friday.
If I recall correctly, it was about the same last year. Slow bleed in September and October, then the market shot up in November and December. I keep reminding myself it's good because I have a bunch of $$ coming soon lol.
I went back to double check, and yes, last year was the same (hopefully the rest of the year will also be the same):

Image

Keep chugging along, people.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:18 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:28 am
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 amOn the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
It's almost like you haven't learned anything from the people on this board or even your own experience.
What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. ..
-Captain, Cool Hand Luke.
New paradigms call for new strategies.
https://twitter.com/WSJmarkets/status/1 ... 8607360005
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:59 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:18 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:28 am
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 amOn the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
It's almost like you haven't learned anything from the people on this board or even your own experience.
What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. ..
-Captain, Cool Hand Luke.
New paradigms call for new strategies.
https://twitter.com/WSJmarkets/status/1 ... 8607360005
I have no idea what that link has to do with "timing the market successfully"
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Wanderingwheelz
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Man. I came here to read about stocks soaring and this is what I got. I want my money back.
3 Fund Portfolio. 70/30 AA. No mortgage. Simplicity is key.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 amBased on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.

Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.

I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
Pulling out of stocks in early 2008 was absolutely not a correct decision unless you earned more than stocks did since 2008. Did you?

You say the big thing you didn't do was get back into the market. That is a pretty big thing. You will rationalize and say that you got out and it was the right decision, but you need to be right twice to successfully time the market. Good luck with that.

You have shown that you cannot successfully time the market. None of us can. If somebody does one time, it's sheer luck. I won't tell you to pick an AA that you're comfortable with because I don't think you're comfortable with any AA. You need to pick an AA that you can tolerate in all market conditions are are least likely to mess around with. Maybe it's 25% stocks. I don't know. I do know that the best thing you can do is pick an AA, ANY AA, and hold it. Stop trying to predict. Stop pontificating. Stop thinking. Just buy and hold.
Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:08 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 amBased on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.

Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.

I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
Pulling out of stocks in early 2008 was absolutely not a correct decision unless you earned more than stocks did since 2008. Did you?

You say the big thing you didn't do was get back into the market. That is a pretty big thing. You will rationalize and say that you got out and it was the right decision, but you need to be right twice to successfully time the market. Good luck with that.

You have shown that you cannot successfully time the market. None of us can. If somebody does one time, it's sheer luck. I won't tell you to pick an AA that you're comfortable with because I don't think you're comfortable with any AA. You need to pick an AA that you can tolerate in all market conditions are are least likely to mess around with. Maybe it's 25% stocks. I don't know. I do know that the best thing you can do is pick an AA, ANY AA, and hold it. Stop trying to predict. Stop pontificating. Stop thinking. Just buy and hold.

I get the impression anoop is a big consumer of noise and acts on it and that has cost him dearly. The thing I find hard to understand after such a dismal record is that he continues to do so.
Last edited by Candor on Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:04 pm Man. I came here to read about stocks soaring and this is what I got. I want my money back.
SPDR S&P Health Care Equipment (XHE) continues to soar!
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Does this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?
hoops777
Posts: 3608
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:47 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
DJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?

Yup.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
The market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.

No idea why you guys think this is unprecedented. This is normal... This is how the market works.

And yes, there will be a crash or bad decade. That's normal too. That is how the market works as well.

And the long-term average, so far, is still 9%-10% even though the market sometimes crashes, because it ALSO sometimes doubles in 4-5 years.
I never said it was not normal for the market to double. I said it would not of happened the past 14 years without the help, and in my opinion the foundation is very shaky.
I am certain many here believe the Dow will be in the 40,000 plus within a year.
Maybe it will.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
Wanderingwheelz
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:42 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:47 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
DJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?

Yup.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
The market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.

No idea why you guys think this is unprecedented. This is normal... This is how the market works.

And yes, there will be a crash or bad decade. That's normal too. That is how the market works as well.

And the long-term average, so far, is still 9%-10% even though the market sometimes crashes, because it ALSO sometimes doubles in 4-5 years.
I never said it was not normal for the market to double. I said it would not of happened the past 14 years without the help, and in my opinion the foundation is very shaky.
I am certain many here believe the Dow will be in the 40,000 plus within a year.
Maybe it will.
I don’t think many people here invest money in equities that they’ll need within a year, so it doesn’t much matter where the Dow will be.
3 Fund Portfolio. 70/30 AA. No mortgage. Simplicity is key.
hoops777
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Does this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?
Trust me that nobody should care what I do.
I will tell you just so everyone can get a good laugh at what I did do.
As I approached retirement 6 or 7 years ago,I was obsessed with sequence of returns risk, so I had my number and went in to full protection mode. Zero stocks.
A lot of brokered Cds. I bought a 10 yr. CD 200,000 paying 3.4 that still has 3 1/2 years left. Some very high quality Corp bonds like a 7 year Microsoft paying 3.125. Anyway, I have been averaging about. 3.2 on all our fixed income and about 47K a year in interest,all in IRA’s, except for a couple great GO muni’s and our I bonds.
So I am content. Do I wish I had been heavy into stocks? Not really because the market could have gone the other way.
I recently bought a couple MYGA’s to replace some matured CD’s.
I start my full SS at 70 very soon. We are good.
As my stuff matures I will be buying some stocks again now that SS pays all of our basic expenses.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:06 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Does this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?
Trust me that nobody should care what I do.
I will tell you just so everyone can get a good laugh at what I did do.
As I approached retirement 6 or 7 years ago,I was obsessed with sequence of returns risk, so I had my number and went in to full protection mode. Zero stocks.
A lot of brokered Cds. I bought a 10 yr. CD 200,000 paying 3.4 that still has 3 1/2 years left. Some very high quality Corp bonds like a 7 year Microsoft paying 3.125. Anyway, I have been averaging about. 3.2 on all our fixed income and about 47K a year in interest,all in IRA’s, except for a couple great GO muni’s and our I bonds.
So I am content. Do I wish I had been heavy into stocks? Not really because the market could have gone the other way.
I recently bought a couple MYGA’s to replace some matured CD’s.
I start my full SS at 70 very soon. We are good.
As my stuff matures I will be buying some stocks again now that SS pays all of our basic expenses.
If you hold zero equities, then why are you so worried about equities?
hoops777
Posts: 3608
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:31 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:06 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm

Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.
I stand by my statement.

And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Does this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?
Trust me that nobody should care what I do.
I will tell you just so everyone can get a good laugh at what I did do.
As I approached retirement 6 or 7 years ago,I was obsessed with sequence of returns risk, so I had my number and went in to full protection mode. Zero stocks.
A lot of brokered Cds. I bought a 10 yr. CD 200,000 paying 3.4 that still has 3 1/2 years left. Some very high quality Corp bonds like a 7 year Microsoft paying 3.125. Anyway, I have been averaging about. 3.2 on all our fixed income and about 47K a year in interest,all in IRA’s, except for a couple great GO muni’s and our I bonds.
So I am content. Do I wish I had been heavy into stocks? Not really because the market could have gone the other way.
I recently bought a couple MYGA’s to replace some matured CD’s.
I start my full SS at 70 very soon. We are good.
As my stuff matures I will be buying some stocks again now that SS pays all of our basic expenses.
If you hold zero equities, then why are you so worried about equities?
Hmm
I am not worried about equities at all. Total peace of mind knowing I have zero need for them.
I am interested in what they do for many reasons, one being that I will be a buyer again at some point, as I previously stated.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Yep. But the question remains if there will be a good entry point for cash hoarders or will this thing just go onward and upward to nominal infinity? I think the former will probably come true but only for a narrow window. Those hoarding cash hoping to buy low better have nerves of steel and actually get in before the value of their cash evaporates.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Futures are all higher by the same amount.
Dow/Nasdaq/S&P500/Russell are all up 0.20%.
Is that cool or what?
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

anoop wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:42 pm Futures are all higher by the same amount.
Dow/Nasdaq/S&P500/Russell are all up 0.20%.
Is that cool or what?
Prolly cooler if we hadn't seen everything crash on open for several days in a row.
hoops777
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hoops777 »

000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:20 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Yep. But the question remains if there will be a good entry point for cash hoarders or will this thing just go onward and upward to nominal infinity? I think the former will probably come true but only for a narrow window. Those hoarding cash hoping to buy low better have nerves of steel and actually get in before the value of their cash evaporates.
The beauty of placing limit orders. :D
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:44 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
What is happening around you?
I wish someone would ask the Fed this question. They're still taking emergency measures (ZIRP, QE, etc.).

I, too, do not know what emergency they're seeing. Maybe they don't get out much and look at the real world.
VBIAX and chill
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:49 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:44 pm
hoops777 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
What is happening around you?
I wish someone would ask the Fed this question. They're still taking emergency measures (ZIRP, QE, etc.).

I, too, do not know what emergency they're seeing. Maybe they don't get out much and look at the real world.
They don't get out much. They are data driven. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
$MSFT $60B buyback.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
Meanwhile, VXUS is slightly in the red.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
Meanwhile, VXUS is slightly in the red.
Yeah, Nikkei was red y'day and I believe there are concerns of Evergrande (a big Chinese company) going under.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:35 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
Meanwhile, VXUS is slightly in the red.
Yeah, Nikkei was red y'day and I believe there are concerns of Evergrande (a big Chinese company) going under.
Yeah, Evergrande's debt liability is almost 2% of China's GDP, it's one of their too big to fail company. Will be interesting to see how much govt intervention we'll see there.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Dang, VTI, not today!
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

I am rooting for a real melt-up at the end of the day. We haven't had one of those in a long time. :happy
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I guess we'll rally hard into Friday when my 401k hits. As usual all year
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

atdharris wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:36 pm I guess we'll rally hard into Friday when my 401k hits. As usual all year
First Friday of the year it was 3824

In fact, all of the Fridays of the first 3 months were under 4000.

Is it really that terrible that you bought at those prices? :)
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:51 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:36 pm I guess we'll rally hard into Friday when my 401k hits. As usual all year
First Friday of the year it was 3824

In fact, all of the Fridays of the first 3 months were under 4000.

Is it really that terrible that you bought at those prices? :)
I think we all prefer to buy them below 2000 and then when retirement hits, we can sell them above 5000. We can all dream :twisted: :beer
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:51 pm
atdharris wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:36 pm I guess we'll rally hard into Friday when my 401k hits. As usual all year
First Friday of the year it was 3824

In fact, all of the Fridays of the first 3 months were under 4000.

Is it really that terrible that you bought at those prices? :)
It's so silly and inconsequential. My post from last week: viewtopic.php?p=6219666#p6219666
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

Dang. This soaring couldn't wait till next week when my contributions are due?
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

anoop wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
$MSFT $60B buyback.
Just as some like to say dividends give you nothing, buybacks give you nothing. The upside is you own a slightly larger percentage of the company. The downside is the company you own now has $60B less that before.

I can see some advantage in doing buybacks near market lows. Within 2% of ATH, I'll just say, "MSFT, thanks for nothing."
VBIAX and chill
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anoop wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
$MSFT $60B buyback.
Microsoft has contributed less than 10% to the S&P 500's increase today. It makes up 5.7% of the index. It's increase is 1.67% today vs. 0.90% for the index. It's just a regular, run of the mill trading day.

You guys are always looking for reasons to explain why the market does what it does. Accept that you have no idea.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:37 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:23 pm SPX +0.75%, the traders liking something.
$MSFT $60B buyback.
Microsoft has contributed less than 10% to the S&P 500's increase today. It makes up 5.7% of the index. It's increase is 1.67% today vs. 0.90% for the index. It's just a regular, run of the mill trading day.

You guys are always looking for reasons to explain why the market does what it does. Accept that you have no idea.
Yep. Just buy the haystack and chill.

VT and chill.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Are all the tech buyback because they have no place good to use the money to grow?? Or that these companies are just so insanely profitable that they have too much money left over even after investing in the business?
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:17 pm Are all the tech buyback because they have no place good to use the money to grow?? Or that these companies are just so insanely profitable that they have too much money left over even after investing in the business?
The way I understand it is that the buybacks are done from earnings and are instead of paying a higher dividend. Many investors prefer buybacks to dividends because of their tax advantages.

Even if one has held shares for more than a year and the dividends are qualified dividends, they are still taxed at LTCG rates. A buyback increases the value of the shares an investor owns and when they are sold the LTCG tax rate still applies, but the investor has control over when this gain is realized. Taxes on dividends must be paid in the return for the year in which the dividends are paid.

I hold some shares of individual tech companies and much prefer buybacks. My current plans are to either: (1) hold the shares until I die and pass them to my heirs with a step up in basis, or (2) to donate the shares to charity during my life, taking a deduction for the current value of the shares without ever paying capital gains tax.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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