[Portfolio Review Request]

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
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Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

[Portfolio Review Request]

Post by dave_5 »

Hi guys,

I'm kind of looking for your professional opinion. Here's the deal, let me keep this brief. I speculated during the early days of the pandemic and beat the market, knowing this is not a reliable way investment strategy, I've sold out of all my individual holding except Altria (MO), which I own about 100 shares in and plan on selling it at the long-term capital gains rate at the end of next month.

My nest egg is approximately 364k, I have no debt, am employed in a relatively stable industry with a little side business. I invest in my employer's 457(b) plan, my Roth IRA, and a taxable Vanguard account. I hold the Altria shares in that account along with The Vanguard Growth Fund, the Vanguard 500, and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF.

I am 43, single, and no dependents. How do you think I'm doing?
livesoft
Posts: 77646
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by livesoft »

We donated our shares of Altria to the American Cancer Society a long time ago.

I have no idea how you are doing, so I will not comment on that part of your post.
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BarbBrooklyn
Posts: 1039
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Location: NYC

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by BarbBrooklyn »

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212

Ask your question in the above format.
BarbBrooklyn | "The enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."
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ruralavalon
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Location: Illinois

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by ruralavalon »

It is good to see that you are debt free and using tax-advantaged accounts. Otherwise I can't say how you are doing without more information.

Please see this for information needed and format: Asking Portfolio Questions.

You can simply add to your original post using the edit button (the pencil icon near the upper right corner of your post), it helps a lot if all of your information is in one place.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
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Watty
Posts: 23439
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by Watty »

It would also help to give your post a better title. Asking for a "professional opinion" sounds like you have a legal or medical question.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 8567
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Watty wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:08 am It would also help to give your post a better title. Asking for a "professional opinion" sounds like you have a legal or medical question.
also, (for the OP) by professional do you mean a professional in the financial industry?

I may be a professional lawyer or doctor or plumber.

does my opinion count?

if I'm not a professional in anything, does my opinion also not count?

you might want to change the title of your post to "How am I doing?" because that's really the question you're asking.

then put the details as per "asking portfolio questions" link that others have already provided.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events.
delamer
Posts: 12309
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:13 pm

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by delamer »

How you are doing depends on what your goals are (early retirement, buying a house, moving to Thailand, etc.) and your total financial picture (income, all investable assets by account type, real estate, expenses).
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. | | Alexandre Dumas, fils
dbr
Posts: 37015
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:50 am

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dbr »

dave_5 wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:02 am

I am 43, single, and no dependents. How do you think I'm doing?
You would have to add information about what you want, meaning how you expect your future to play out, before one could answer that question. You could easily be well on your way to finishing your working career and eventually retiring or you could be not even close to what you envision for yourself. What you have now and how much you are adding may well be fine or not fine.

As to your holdings, Growth and IT in addition to the 500 would not seem to have any particular logic. You might want to read about the three fund portfolio in the Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

PS I am not a professional, at least not at investing.
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by dave_5 »

Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.

2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture?

thank you,

David
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 22137
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by ruralavalon »

dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.

2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture?

thank you,

David
An asset allocation of 100% stocks is pretty risky in my opinion. Your desired international stock allocation of "0-5%" is too small to be meaningful.


Is the 457b plan a governmental plan or non-governmental?

Is there also a 403b plan offered at work? (If so then you are allowed to contribute to both plans.)

Do you have income from self-employment? Do you have any employees in your business? (There are limitations on who can have an individual (solo) 401k plan.)

Wiki article Solo 401(k) plan.

Here are calculators you can use to assess the range of possible outcomes at different levels of contributions:
1) www.firecalc.com; and
2) www.i-orp.com.

About ABLE Accounts.

IRS, "ABLE Accounts - Tax Benefit for People with Disabilities", link
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
delamer
Posts: 12309
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:13 pm

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by delamer »

According to the calculator below, starting with $300,000 and contributing $2,000/month you’d have to average between 13% & 14% in annual returns over 7 years to reach $1 million.

So you probably won’t reach your goal unless you substantially increase your savings.

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/sa ... lator.aspx
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. | | Alexandre Dumas, fils
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dave_5 »

ruralavalon wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:18 am
dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.

2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture?

thank you,

David
An asset allocation of 100% stocks is pretty risky in my opinion. Your desired international stock allocation of "0-5%" is too small to be meaningful.


Is the 457b plan a governmental plan or non-governmental?

Is there also a 403b plan offered at work? (If so then you are allowed to contribute to both plans.)

Do you have income from self-employment? Do you have any employees in your business? (There are limitations on who can have an individual (solo) 401k plan.)

Wiki article Solo 401(k) plan.

Here are calculators you can use to assess the range of possible outcomes at different levels of contributions:
1) www.firecalc.com; and
2) www.i-orp.com.

About ABLE Accounts.

IRS, "ABLE Accounts - Tax Benefit for People with Disabilities", link
I agree on AA to an extent. Several years back, I used to be largely in individual stocks before I discovered this site. Talk about heart palpitations! Comparatively, I sleep "easy" at night now since I plan on retiring later in life.

Yes, I'm a sole proprietor with a company. I am also a individual with a disability and am still trying to figure this one out. In in Virginia and we have pretty good Able accounts here, but I'm kind on the fence about it.

Starting in 2022 I plan on maxing out my 457(b) with a governmental plan with no match. I also plan on maxing out my Roth IRA. So, total that would be $2,000 a month. With a plan to reach millionaire status by age 50, I need to have a rate of return of approx. 14%. Dave Ramsey estimates that a S&P 500 with dividends reinvested with average a 12% ROI over the long-term, which is why I'm invested in the Growth fund and the IT fund.

I've had some good years with Vanguard and my long-term 10+ ROI is about 20-21%. To better reach these goals, I also plan on forming a solo 401(k) and sock away as much money as I can. I learned I can start a Target Dated Fund with as little as a $1,000. To get in some of company index funds you need around 10k. With the Able account here in VA I can invest around like 15k I think a year or something like that and they're invested in the Vanguard Life Strategies Fund that, like the Target Dated Funds include some bonds, so maybe that's how I force myself to take on fixed income?

David
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 22137
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by ruralavalon »

I can't help with your question on ABLE accounts.

In my opinion Vanguard LifeStrategy funds are excellent funds.

Does your employer also offer a 403b plan? A governmental 457b plan or 403b plan is a good place to hold bond funds, if good funds with low expense ratios are offered. What funds are offered in that plan or plans? Please give fund names, tickers and expense ratios.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dave_5 »

ruralavalon wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:45 am I can't help with your question on ABLE accounts.

In my opinion Vanguard LifeStrategy funds are excellent funds.

Does your employer also offer a 403b plan? A governmental 457b plan or 403b plan is a good place to hold bond funds, if good funds with low expense ratios are offered. What funds are offered in that plan or plans? Please give fund names, tickers and expense ratios.
My employer only offers the 457(b) plan. I also have a pension. I'm happy with my 457(b) plans, so I'm fine on that. I averaging about a 15% ROI over the last 10 years.
neverpanic
Posts: 878
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:26 am

Re: The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by neverpanic »

dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.
It's possible and perhaps likely.

As a personal goal, I understand the importance of achieving it, though I'd likely argue that $2-2.5M is the new "millionaire".

As a practical concern, there's not much utility to it. You either have enough (or are on the right path) or you don't. It sounds like you're on the right path and were smart enough to take paper profits off the table at the right time.
I am not a financial professional or guru. I'm a schmuck who got lucky 10 times. Such is the life of the trader.
Vanguard User
Posts: 384
Joined: Wed May 26, 2021 5:46 pm
Location: Sugar Land, Texas

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by Vanguard User »

dave_5 wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:02 am Hi guys,

I'm kind of looking for your professional opinion. Here's the deal, let me keep this brief. I speculated during the early days of the pandemic and beat the market, knowing this is not a reliable way investment strategy, I've sold out of all my individual holding except Altria (MO), which I own about 100 shares in and plan on selling it at the long-term capital gains rate at the end of next month.

My nest egg is approximately 364k, I have no debt, am employed in a relatively stable industry with a little side business. I invest in my employer's 457(b) plan, my Roth IRA, and a taxable Vanguard account. I hold the Altria shares in that account along with The Vanguard Growth Fund, the Vanguard 500, and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF.

I am 43, single, and no dependents. How do you think I'm doing?
I am also 43, single and no kids. When do you retire?
Last edited by Vanguard User on Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JBTX
Posts: 8627
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by JBTX »

dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.
Doesn't seem likely. If your existing portfolio doubled in 7 years, that's 10% year, or $600k then maybe you put in another $100k in 457 and Roth, and that goes to $150k. That's $750k. 10% a year is pretty healthy growth, especially given current seemingly high stock valuations. You'd have to save a lot more and hope for explosive growth. Not impossible but unlikely.

Are you self employed? You need to be self employed to open solo 401k.


2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture

thank you,

David
-First an ABLE account is for someone who has an established and documented disability before the age of 26.

https://www.ablenrc.org/get-started/am-i-eligible/


- also, an ABLE accounts greatest attraction is it shields assets for those who are on needs based disability - specifically SSI and Medicaid. Otherwise you can only have $2000 in assets (with exceptions). Given your savings, and your income, I'm going to guess you are not on SSI.

- if you are able to earn enough to get to 22% tax rate, I would not think you meet the criteria for SSI/SSDI/Able account as being disabled, at least in terms of their criteria. But I am not an expert on this.

- if you did qualify for ABLE, it could be useful as a way to save money tax free, similar to a 529, but you would have to find a state with a good low fee plan. Able accounts are kind where 529s were 2 decades ago, not great choices and often riddled with fees.

I have an MA Able accoubt for my son with Fidelity. But I opened is a conduit for SSI assuming he qualifies at 18. There are some modest fees involved, but it is convenient for me being at fidelity.


Best of Luck.
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

Re: The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by dave_5 »

JBTX wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:14 pm
dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.
Doesn't seem likely. If your existing portfolio doubled in 7 years, that's 10% year, or $600k then maybe you put in another $100k in 457 and Roth, and that goes to $150k. That's $750k. 10% a year is pretty healthy growth, especially given current seemingly high stock valuations. You'd have to save a lot more and hope for explosive growth. Not impossible but unlikely.

Are you self employed? You need to be self employed to open solo 401k.


2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture

thank you,

David
-First an ABLE account is for someone who has an established and documented disability before the age of 26.

https://www.ablenrc.org/get-started/am-i-eligible/


- also, an ABLE accounts greatest attraction is it shields assets for those who are on needs based disability - specifically SSI and Medicaid. Otherwise you can only have $2000 in assets (with exceptions). Given your savings, and your income, I'm going to guess you are not on SSI.

- if you are able to earn enough to get to 22% tax rate, I would not think you meet the criteria for SSI/SSDI/Able account as being disabled, at least in terms of their criteria. But I am not an expert on this.

- if you did qualify for ABLE, it could be useful as a way to save money tax free, similar to a 529, but you would have to find a state with a good low fee plan. Able accounts are kind where 529s were 2 decades ago, not great choices and often riddled with fees.

I have an MA Able accoubt for my son with Fidelity. But I opened is a conduit for SSI assuming he qualifies at 18. There are some modest fees involved, but it is convenient for me being at fidelity.


Best of Luck.
Yes, I am self-employed. I also acquired a disability in grad school when I was 23/24. The criteria with an ABLE account is you can have one even if you're not on SSI and my state, VA has a prohibition on medicaid claw-back. Virginia has a pretty good plan here, like 0.5-0.6% net in fees and it offers Vanguard funds. You also get a state tax deduction up to 2k, like the state's 529 plans, so I'm thinking about it.

Having a disability is not easy at times and I like the fact you can sell funds without incurring capital gains taxes, so I'm thinking about it. Has the ABLE account benefited your son? Is he in, or does he plan to go to college, because you can use it for that too?

best,

David
JBTX
Posts: 8627
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by JBTX »

dave_5 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:54 am
JBTX wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:14 pm
dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Okay, sorry for the confusion in the earlier post. I'd been awhile since I posted to the forum. Let me break things down for you:

Emergency funds: covered for 3-6 months (I am expecting to need a new car at some point)

Debt: $0.00

Tax filing states: single, no kids

Tax Rate: 22% federal, 5.75% state

State of Residence: Virginia

Age: 43

Desired Asset Allocation: 100% stocks, 0% bonds

Desired International Allocation: 0-5%

Approx. Size of portfolio: 300k

Portfolio: approx. 5k Altria (MO)

Taxable: 136k

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX) 27%
Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) 63
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) 10%

457(b):

Vanguard 500 (VFIAX)

Expense ratio: 0.04%

No company match

89k

Roth IRA:

Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSAX)

70k

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Contributions:

457(b): 6-8k / year (I plan on maxing out next)

Roth IRA: 6k per year

Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.
Doesn't seem likely. If your existing portfolio doubled in 7 years, that's 10% year, or $600k then maybe you put in another $100k in 457 and Roth, and that goes to $150k. That's $750k. 10% a year is pretty healthy growth, especially given current seemingly high stock valuations. You'd have to save a lot more and hope for explosive growth. Not impossible but unlikely.

Are you self employed? You need to be self employed to open solo 401k.


2. I am also thinking about starting an ABLE account as a person with a disability. Good idea given my total financial picture

thank you,

David
-First an ABLE account is for someone who has an established and documented disability before the age of 26.

https://www.ablenrc.org/get-started/am-i-eligible/


- also, an ABLE accounts greatest attraction is it shields assets for those who are on needs based disability - specifically SSI and Medicaid. Otherwise you can only have $2000 in assets (with exceptions). Given your savings, and your income, I'm going to guess you are not on SSI.

- if you are able to earn enough to get to 22% tax rate, I would not think you meet the criteria for SSI/SSDI/Able account as being disabled, at least in terms of their criteria. But I am not an expert on this.

- if you did qualify for ABLE, it could be useful as a way to save money tax free, similar to a 529, but you would have to find a state with a good low fee plan. Able accounts are kind where 529s were 2 decades ago, not great choices and often riddled with fees.

I have an MA Able accoubt for my son with Fidelity. But I opened is a conduit for SSI assuming he qualifies at 18. There are some modest fees involved, but it is convenient for me being at fidelity.


Best of Luck.
Yes, I am self-employed. I also acquired a disability in grad school when I was 23/24. The criteria with an ABLE account is you can have one even if you're not on SSI and my state, VA has a prohibition on medicaid claw-back. Virginia has a pretty good plan here, like 0.5-0.6% net in fees and it offers Vanguard funds. You also get a state tax deduction up to 2k, like the state's 529 plans, so I'm thinking about it.

Having a disability is not easy at times and I like the fact you can sell funds without incurring capital gains taxes, so I'm thinking about it. Has the ABLE account benefited your son? Is he in, or does he plan to go to college, because you can use it for that too?

best,

David

I'm not an expert on ABLE but my understanding is that the criteria is similar to SSI. you don't have to be on SSI, but I thought the criteria was similar. But again, that's something for you to work out.

I haven't used the able account yet. I only funded it as a conduit for spending money if he is on SSI when he turns 18. He is 17 now. He won't go to traditional college.
dharrythomas
Posts: 1146
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:46 pm

Re: Portfolio Review Request

Post by dharrythomas »

David,

From $364K, you are unlikely to make it to $1M in 7 years. With current PE ratios, history would say to expect 5-6% per stocks for the next decade. We should anticipate a reversion to the mean either by a sharp drop in the market or just a decade of very low returns. In general, the longer we avoid taking the medicine, the worse the pain.

We don’t have a real good historical case study that combines coming out of a pandemic induced economic shutdown, with suppressed interest rates, high P/Es on stocks, and high (as a % of GDP) government debt, but my guess would be that if we have consistent high market returns, we’re headed into a bubble and a crash. But I don’t know anything, I’m stuck on trying to figure out at what point the surge in electric vehicles means I need to quit buying internal combustion engines because there will less gas sold, so supply decreases, outlets close, and the prices goes up on that end. Of course that is impacted by how long I can run a refinery flat out and cover variable costs. This stuff is just hard to predict. Jack Bogle said the best piece of advice he got about markets is “Nobody knows nothing!”

While many of us here love Dave Ramsey’s advice on debt and savings, few of us think his investing recommendations are sound.

Good luck.

Harry
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dave_5 »

Vanguard User wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:10 pm
dave_5 wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:02 am Hi guys,

I'm kind of looking for your professional opinion. Here's the deal, let me keep this brief. I speculated during the early days of the pandemic and beat the market, knowing this is not a reliable way investment strategy, I've sold out of all my individual holding except Altria (MO), which I own about 100 shares in and plan on selling it at the long-term capital gains rate at the end of next month.

My nest egg is approximately 364k, I have no debt, am employed in a relatively stable industry with a little side business. I invest in my employer's 457(b) plan, my Roth IRA, and a taxable Vanguard account. I hold the Altria shares in that account along with The Vanguard Growth Fund, the Vanguard 500, and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF.

I am 43, single, and no dependents. How do you think I'm doing?
I am also 43, single and no kids. When do you retire?
Honestly, I don't know. As you might guess, it's harder when you're single and I'd have to move. I'm in the D.C. metro.
Topic Author
dave_5
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Re: The Bogleheads: Your View?

Post by dave_5 »

neverpanic wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:54 pm
dave_5 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:43 am Questions:

1. My goal is to become a millionaire by age 50, will I make it? I also plan on starting a deductible solo 401(k) with Vanguard as soon as I can.
It's possible and perhaps likely.

As a personal goal, I understand the importance of achieving it, though I'd likely argue that $2-2.5M is the new "millionaire".

As a practical concern, there's not much utility to it. You either have enough (or are on the right path) or you don't. It sounds like you're on the right path and were smart enough to take paper profits off the table at the right time.
Well, I had owned a very large position in Exxon until recently, sold it when it was up 50% and took the difference. I also sold options against it, betting against oil and was right. Did I sell at the top of the market? No, but close. Would I do it again? No, definitely not. I'm stopping while I'm ahead. The only individual stock I have left is Altria. I doubt I will own another individual stock in my lifetime. I want to build a business, not a casino.
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dave_5
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Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dave_5 »

delamer wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:13 am How you are doing depends on what your goals are (early retirement, buying a house, moving to Thailand, etc.) and your total financial picture (income, all investable assets by account type, real estate, expenses).
Well, I'm single, so it's all up to me and me alone. I have ideas in mind for retirement, but my profession wasn't as advertised, so I am looking to develop a second career on my own terms eventually. When you work for other people, a lot is outside your control. It's also risky.

I don't own a house yet because I'm not sure I want to stay where I'm at. I live in D.C. metro, everything's the government or a government contractor and the traffic is too much. It's the Starbucks of America, land of the $2-8 dollar coffee and credit card swipers. I like to brew my own and keep the difference.
delamer
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Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by delamer »

dave_5 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:23 pm
delamer wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:13 am How you are doing depends on what your goals are (early retirement, buying a house, moving to Thailand, etc.) and your total financial picture (income, all investable assets by account type, real estate, expenses).
Well, I'm single, so it's all up to me and me alone. I have ideas in mind for retirement, but my profession wasn't as advertised, so I am looking to develop a second career on my own terms eventually. When you work for other people, a lot is outside your control. It's also risky.

I don't own a house yet because I'm not sure I want to stay where I'm at. I live in D.C. metro, everything's the government or a government contractor and the traffic is too much. It's the Starbucks of America, land of the $2-8 dollar coffee and credit card swipers. I like to brew my own and keep the difference.
Have you settled on the second career yet? If so, that’s what you should focus on.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. | | Alexandre Dumas, fils
Topic Author
dave_5
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:45 am

Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by dave_5 »

delamer wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:44 pm
dave_5 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:23 pm
delamer wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:13 am How you are doing depends on what your goals are (early retirement, buying a house, moving to Thailand, etc.) and your total financial picture (income, all investable assets by account type, real estate, expenses).
Well, I'm single, so it's all up to me and me alone. I have ideas in mind for retirement, but my profession wasn't as advertised, so I am looking to develop a second career on my own terms eventually. When you work for other people, a lot is outside your control. It's also risky.

I don't own a house yet because I'm not sure I want to stay where I'm at. I live in D.C. metro, everything's the government or a government contractor and the traffic is too much. It's the Starbucks of America, land of the $2-8 dollar coffee and credit card swipers. I like to brew my own and keep the difference.
Have you settled on the second career yet? If so, that’s what you should focus on.
Well, the beginning starts will working my own time, independent in location. My reading stack is high and my time is short. The rest of the time I'm working.
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Re: Professional opinion needed

Post by Vanguard User »

dave_5 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:10 pm
Vanguard User wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:10 pm
dave_5 wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:02 am Hi guys,

I'm kind of looking for your professional opinion. Here's the deal, let me keep this brief. I speculated during the early days of the pandemic and beat the market, knowing this is not a reliable way investment strategy, I've sold out of all my individual holding except Altria (MO), which I own about 100 shares in and plan on selling it at the long-term capital gains rate at the end of next month.

My nest egg is approximately 364k, I have no debt, am employed in a relatively stable industry with a little side business. I invest in my employer's 457(b) plan, my Roth IRA, and a taxable Vanguard account. I hold the Altria shares in that account along with The Vanguard Growth Fund, the Vanguard 500, and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF.

I am 43, single, and no dependents. How do you think I'm doing?
I am also 43, single and no kids. When do you retire?
Honestly, I don't know. As you might guess, it's harder when you're single and I'd have to move. I'm in the D.C. metro.
Why is it harder when single?
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