Withdraw Methodologies

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eyemgh
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Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

I've been trying to wrap my head around withdraw strategies. I'm not coding and spreadsheet savvy, so I'm leery of amortization based schemes. But, I also feel like following the standard 4% SWR from the Trinity Study isn't the smartest idea because one's needs could easily exceed or trail the 4%. I'm not particularly fearful of running out of money. I also don't want to live like a pauper only to leave a giant amount to our son. We would like to leave him something though. The deeper I get in assessing the strategies, the more confused I get. Is there a happy middle that's variable, but not as management intensive? I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future. As Vinnie Barbarino used to say, I'm so confused! :confused
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FiveK
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by FiveK »

What does your budget (including allowances for taxes and every-so-many-year expenses such as a new roof, car, etc.) say your withdrawal ratio will be this year?

How good do you feel about that budget? E.g., see Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?.
dbr
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by dbr »

Actual withdrawals in retirement are variable. I don't think using a rigid withdrawal scheme as a plan is practical. Those things are for estimating ahead of time that you are in the right ballpark.

In fourteen years of retirement our highest spending year spent twice the average for those years and the lowest only half the average. But if you look at the trend line for noisy and variable rates of withdrawal it lines up with what we thought would be a safe estimate.
delamer
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by delamer »

Most people don’t get through retirement without some large unexpected expense, like long-term care costs, medical expenses, or providing support for a family member. Since they come out-of-the-blue, they are difficult to plan for.

But basic living costs (food, utilities, Medicare premiums) and irregular expenses (new cars, roof replacement) can be planned for.

So annuitize the funds that cover your basic and irregular expenses. Then save the rest for the unexpected.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. | | Alexandre Dumas, fils
reln
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by reln »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:21 pm I've been trying to wrap my head around withdraw strategies. I'm not coding and spreadsheet savvy, so I'm leery of amortization based schemes. But, I also feel like following the standard 4% SWR from the Trinity Study isn't the smartest idea because one's needs could easily exceed or trail the 4%. I'm not particularly fearful of running out of money. I also don't want to live like a pauper only to leave a giant amount to our son. We would like to leave him something though. The deeper I get in assessing the strategies, the more confused I get. Is there a happy middle that's variable, but not as management intensive? I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future. As Vinnie Barbarino used to say, I'm so confused! :confused
1) Delay SS till around 68, 69, or 70 if single. If married, the higher earner waits till 69ish, the other claims at 62
2) Any pension? If so, take the single life only option
3) Buy whole Life insurance or UL with long term care rider for the amount you want to leave your son
4) Sell your bonds and buy enough life only SPIA(s) to cover the amount X = average expenses - SS income - pension income + life insurance premium
5) keep your stocks for future growth, withdrawals, and legacy

Everything else is suboptimal.
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eyemgh
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

We've run expenses, but we need to tighten it up...a lot. We're starting to track every penny next month. We won't turn off the faucet for at least 2 years, but probably right then. We have our SS strategy figured out via open social security. No pension, but we have an income producing property...for now, unless we move. The western fires are taking a toll on us. Fortunately, we have plenty in qualified plans. We're just trying to plan ahead to optimize, so we can understand if we can splurge here and there or not.
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FiveK
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by FiveK »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:42 pm We've run expenses, but we need to tighten it up...a lot. We're starting to track every penny next month. We won't turn off the faucet for at least 2 years, but probably right then. We have our SS strategy figured out via open social security. No pension, but we have an income producing property...for now, unless we move. The western fires are taking a toll on us. Fortunately, we have plenty in qualified plans. We're just trying to plan ahead to optimize, so we can understand if we can splurge here and there or not.
You can do a mathematical optimization based on your guesses for future tax policy, rates of return, life expectancy, etc. The likelihood, however, that your guesses will be accurate - and this is no reflection on you ;) - is vanishingly small, so leaning more toward "a somewhat conservative ballpark estimate" instead of "excruciatingly detailed accuracy" is probably wise.

E.g., if you find the need to take some SS a couple of years earlier, or want to delay it a couple of years, that may affect your lifetime benefits by only +/- 1% (see the opensocialsecurity "contour map" of your results).

Given your two years to go, and intent to understand your spending over the coming year, then by this time next year you should have a good idea of whether you are looking at
- a withdrawal rate (WR) <3%, in which case you probably don't need to pay much attention at all, or
- a WR >5%, in which case more than average care and belt-tightening might (or might no) be needed, or
- a WR somewhere in between, in which case you'll still probably be fine but annual checkups will be a reasonable precaution.
Topic Author
eyemgh
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

FiveK wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:02 pm
eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:42 pm We've run expenses, but we need to tighten it up...a lot. We're starting to track every penny next month. We won't turn off the faucet for at least 2 years, but probably right then. We have our SS strategy figured out via open social security. No pension, but we have an income producing property...for now, unless we move. The western fires are taking a toll on us. Fortunately, we have plenty in qualified plans. We're just trying to plan ahead to optimize, so we can understand if we can splurge here and there or not.
You can do a mathematical optimization based on your guesses for future tax policy, rates of return, life expectancy, etc. The likelihood, however, that your guesses will be accurate - and this is no reflection on you ;) - is vanishingly small, so leaning more toward "a somewhat conservative ballpark estimate" instead of "excruciatingly detailed accuracy" is probably wise.

E.g., if you find the need to take some SS a couple of years earlier, or want to delay it a couple of years, that may affect your lifetime benefits by only +/- 1% (see the opensocialsecurity "contour map" of your results).

Given your two years to go, and intent to understand your spending over the coming year, then by this time next year you should have a good idea of whether you are looking at
- a withdrawal rate (WR) <3%, in which case you probably don't need to pay much attention at all, or
- a WR >5%, in which case more than average care and belt-tightening might (or might no) be needed, or
- a WR somewhere in between, in which case you'll still probably be fine but annual checkups will be a reasonable precaution.
I keep looking into that crystal ball, but It is SO murky! :D

I guess what I'm grasping at is optimization. I started this exercise thinking we'd stick with 4% (or less) and rebalance yearly. The McClung book threw that notion on its head a little, as there seems to be multiple safer and more profitable, for lack of a better term, ways. I'm not as worried about running out of money as I am about making informed decisions, buying a second house for example, or self insuring for LTC. I'd also like to be as wise as I can about leaving money for our son, without short changing our own lives.
nigel_ht
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by nigel_ht »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:21 pm I've been trying to wrap my head around withdraw strategies. I'm not coding and spreadsheet savvy, so I'm leery of amortization based schemes. But, I also feel like following the standard 4% SWR from the Trinity Study isn't the smartest idea because one's needs could easily exceed or trail the 4%. I'm not particularly fearful of running out of money. I also don't want to live like a pauper only to leave a giant amount to our son. We would like to leave him something though. The deeper I get in assessing the strategies, the more confused I get. Is there a happy middle that's variable, but not as management intensive? I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future. As Vinnie Barbarino used to say, I'm so confused! :confused
It’s pretty simple…if your expenses exceed 4% then in the historical worst cases you run out of money. And it’s technically 3.9something% for the times where 4% failed.

It’s a planning number and possibly the simplest withdrawal strategy. The major downside is that it’s really conservative and the likelihood is you end up with a large portfolio when you pass away.

So most alternatives try to frontload spending during your healthiest years.

If your expenses are close to 4% try one of the alternatives. Generally they can improve your early withdrawal rate with only a moderate increase in risk…

If your withdrawal rate is significantly below 4% just compute the minimum portfolio size where 4% produces your expenses.

Everything above the minimum portfolio can fund early retirement spending.

Example: You have $1M but only need $30K a year gross to cover expenses. That’s a 3% WR. $750K at 4% gives you $30K a year.

That leaves you $250K extra to spend in your first 10 years…or an extra $25K a year for a total of $55K a year.

If you retire age 60 then this takes you to 70 where folks tend to start SS. If you retire age 55, smear the $250K over 15 years.

This lets you break the 4% boundary in the early years but still have your expenses safely covered. Moreover it gives you a large reserve so if you get hit by a bad sequence of returns in the first 10 years you can cut back that extra spend. That makes you safer than vanilla SWR.

Of course you’ve “over” saved by $250K to make this strategy work. If you only have $750K you can look at something like VPW…it gives you more spending up front but isn’t as conservative which means in the worst case you may not fully meet your expenses. It will tell you what historically the worst monthly payouts are so if you have enough flexibility in reducing expenses it works fine.
Marseille07
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Marseille07 »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:21 pm I've been trying to wrap my head around withdraw strategies. I'm not coding and spreadsheet savvy, so I'm leery of amortization based schemes. But, I also feel like following the standard 4% SWR from the Trinity Study isn't the smartest idea because one's needs could easily exceed or trail the 4%. I'm not particularly fearful of running out of money. I also don't want to live like a pauper only to leave a giant amount to our son. We would like to leave him something though. The deeper I get in assessing the strategies, the more confused I get. Is there a happy middle that's variable, but not as management intensive? I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future. As Vinnie Barbarino used to say, I'm so confused! :confused
SWR is fine for what you're describing. Just don't exceed the 4%. Trailing is fine because that's just making your portfolio safer by withdrawing less than what the method allows.
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Ben Mathew
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Ben Mathew »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:21 pm I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future.
I just checked the ABW wiki and all the links are working for me. If any are broken, please let us know in the ABW thread.

ABW should not be hard to use. The spreadsheets have formulas that may look intimidating to some, but the user would not need to deal much with that. The most user friendly solution would be an online calculator, which I plan to work on eventually.
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eyemgh
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

Ben Mathew wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:05 am
eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:21 pm I'd use an amortization scheme if it was autopiloted, but the links I've clicked are broken and I can't be certain anythng I find now will work in the future.
I just checked the ABW wiki and all the links are working for me. If any are broken, please let us know in the ABW thread.

ABW should not be hard to use. The spreadsheets have formulas that may look intimidating to some, but the user would not need to deal much with that. The most user friendly solution would be an online calculator, which I plan to work on eventually.
In my best Picard tone…Make it so! :sharebeer

I don’t think I clicked the one in the wiki BTW. It was another that I’d run across. I’ll give the wiki version a look see. Thanks!
CloseEnough
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by CloseEnough »

Example: You have $1M but only need $30K a year gross to cover expenses. That’s a 3% WR. $750K at 4% gives you $30K a year.

That leaves you $250K extra to spend in your first 10 years…or an extra $25K a year for a total of $55K a year.

If you retire age 60 then this takes you to 70 where folks tend to start SS. If you retire age 55, smear the $250K over 15 years.

This lets you break the 4% boundary in the early years but still have your expenses safely covered. Moreover it gives you a large reserve so if you get hit by a bad sequence of returns in the first 10 years you can cut back that extra spend. That makes you safer than vanilla SWR.

Of course you’ve “over” saved by $250K to make this strategy work. If you only have $750K you can look at something like VPW…it gives you more spending up front but isn’t as conservative which means in the worst case you may not fully meet your expenses. It will tell you what historically the worst monthly payouts are so if you have enough flexibility in reducing expenses it works fine.
I like this analysis, but I wonder how a substantial market correction impacts this analysis. Assuming in this example that the $1M is invested 60/40 and there is a market correction to drop equities 40% in the early years, say year 2, so that you have $760k. Does that mean your "extra spend" is gone? Or some other way to look at it since when you entered retirement the original example analysis took into account that markets will go up and down?
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eyemgh
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

CloseEnough wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:21 am
Example: You have $1M but only need $30K a year gross to cover expenses. That’s a 3% WR. $750K at 4% gives you $30K a year.

That leaves you $250K extra to spend in your first 10 years…or an extra $25K a year for a total of $55K a year.

If you retire age 60 then this takes you to 70 where folks tend to start SS. If you retire age 55, smear the $250K over 15 years.

This lets you break the 4% boundary in the early years but still have your expenses safely covered. Moreover it gives you a large reserve so if you get hit by a bad sequence of returns in the first 10 years you can cut back that extra spend. That makes you safer than vanilla SWR.

Of course you’ve “over” saved by $250K to make this strategy work. If you only have $750K you can look at something like VPW…it gives you more spending up front but isn’t as conservative which means in the worst case you may not fully meet your expenses. It will tell you what historically the worst monthly payouts are so if you have enough flexibility in reducing expenses it works fine.
I like this analysis, but I wonder how a substantial market correction impacts this analysis. Assuming in this example that the $1M is invested 60/40 and there is a market correction to drop equities 40% in the early years, say year 2, so that you have $760k. Does that mean your "extra spend" is gone? Or some other way to look at it since when you entered retirement the original example analysis took into account that markets will go up and down?
This is one of the reasons I find McClung’s method interesting. You live off of bonds only until they’re gone. You refill the bond bucket when equities are sufficiently up (sell 20% when they are up 20% inflation adjusted and buy bonds with the proceeds). You never rebalance by buying equities. It does blunt the impact of a down market early. I’ve been told that amortization based withdraw is even better, but don’t have the chops to wrap my head around the concept yet.
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by jebmke »

dbr wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:06 pm Actual withdrawals in retirement are variable. I don't think using a rigid withdrawal scheme as a plan is practical.
I looked back at ours from time to time. During the last 10 years our total annual withdrawal (expenses) ranged from -15% to +30% around the mean. I don't know anyone (who relies totally or in significant part on portfolio withdrawals) who uses a fixed withdrawal rate. Most people I know use the Taylor Larimore method or they have a "dividends only except for special requirements" model.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
nigel_ht
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by nigel_ht »

CloseEnough wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:21 am
Example: You have $1M but only need $30K a year gross to cover expenses. That’s a 3% WR. $750K at 4% gives you $30K a year.

That leaves you $250K extra to spend in your first 10 years…or an extra $25K a year for a total of $55K a year.

If you retire age 60 then this takes you to 70 where folks tend to start SS. If you retire age 55, smear the $250K over 15 years.

This lets you break the 4% boundary in the early years but still have your expenses safely covered. Moreover it gives you a large reserve so if you get hit by a bad sequence of returns in the first 10 years you can cut back that extra spend. That makes you safer than vanilla SWR.

Of course you’ve “over” saved by $250K to make this strategy work. If you only have $750K you can look at something like VPW…it gives you more spending up front but isn’t as conservative which means in the worst case you may not fully meet your expenses. It will tell you what historically the worst monthly payouts are so if you have enough flexibility in reducing expenses it works fine.
I like this analysis, but I wonder how a substantial market correction impacts this analysis. Assuming in this example that the $1M is invested 60/40 and there is a market correction to drop equities 40% in the early years, say year 2, so that you have $760k. Does that mean your "extra spend" is gone? Or some other way to look at it since when you entered retirement the original example analysis took into account that markets will go up and down?
Well...SWR works for the worst historical case so the market correction has to be worse than the worst historical case. Which it could be.

The discretionary fund can help with SORR beyond the historical worst case.

In my personal case I was going to blow 1/3 of the extra money on trips, put 1/3 in a DAF and keep 1/3 in reserve because I'm paranoid.

It really depends when things go south...the earlier the more dangerous but you also have more of this reserve to protect against when SWR would fail.

Worse than 1929 is easy to detect...1966 not as easy. I guess if you see inflation shoot through the roof in the first 10 years, yeah...I'd cut back on the extra spend....
Marseille07
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Marseille07 »

jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:36 am I looked back at ours from time to time. During the last 10 years our total annual withdrawal (expenses) ranged from -15% to +30% around the mean. I don't know anyone (who relies totally or in significant part on portfolio withdrawals) who uses a fixed withdrawal rate. Most people I know use the Taylor Larimore method or they have a "dividends only except for special requirements" model.
I plan to use a fixed withdrawal rate being the upper limit. If I can withdraw $5000/mo but only spent $2000, it doesn't make sense to unnecessarily withdraw $5000 more next month. OTOH if I spent $7000 then I know I have to cut back next month. It won't be difficult to keep things in check on a monthly basis.
Jablean
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Jablean »

I love spreadsheets but I hate numbers and complicated formulas or anything that must be done using linked sheets. So I ignore that silly 4% amount which isn't useful anyway unless all your money is in one basket. How the heck it would help me with the myriad accounts I've got is beyond my comprehension too. You need to look at which account the money is coming from too and include your RMDs.

I like the - is your nest egg 25 times your living expenses - theory. They say that's the same as 4% and so much easier to figure using current dollars and not having to do Future or Present Value formulas - I always got one part wrong on those in my finance class back when you hand wrote all of your calculations and couldn't even use Lotus 123.

But the 25x also only gets you so far and doesn't help decide which account and I'm not a trusting soul. We are within 1-5 years of leaving the workforce so I'm a plannin'.

I've got inherited IRAs, Roths, and Annuities that are on the stretch plan where RMDs are required now. I've got them on my spreadsheet and all the RMDs added to see if they'll cover my expected yearly expenses. I've got our SS amounts in there and approximate years (all of this is just basic columns and rows with +-*) and how they'll go against the expenses. For those years (before and after SS mostly) that RMDs and SS don't cover Exp (and/or those year when one of us hasn't made it to Medicare age and I need to keep income up to stay on ACA and off of Medicaid) I'll look at either taxable accounts and/or tIRA using up my inherited ones first then our personal tIRAs. I pretty much drain all the tIRAs and inheriteds by the time I'm 85 and spouse is 90 leaving all the Roths (currently equal to our tIRAs) as gravy. Everything is in current dollars which assumes expenses grow at same rate as my moderate or bond investments. If I'm off on expenses by 20% it still doesn't eat into my full current Roth and I've got a paid off home that I can throw in the mix that I don't usually count.

I'm a lot more comfortable that we actually have enough looking at it this way than saying "we'll just take 4% out of whatever our total was the year before". Sure, you can do that but 40 rows and 25 columns on a spreadsheet have been much better for my peace of mind.
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by jebmke »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:54 am
jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:36 am I looked back at ours from time to time. During the last 10 years our total annual withdrawal (expenses) ranged from -15% to +30% around the mean. I don't know anyone (who relies totally or in significant part on portfolio withdrawals) who uses a fixed withdrawal rate. Most people I know use the Taylor Larimore method or they have a "dividends only except for special requirements" model.
I plan to use a fixed withdrawal rate being the upper limit. If I can withdraw $5000/mo but only spent $2000, it doesn't make sense to unnecessarily withdraw $5000 more next month. OTOH if I spent $7000 then I know I have to cut back next month. It won't be difficult to keep things in check on a monthly basis.
Then I think we have a different definition of withdrawal. My definition is expenses=withdrawal. Everything else is simply reallocation.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
Marseille07
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Marseille07 »

jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:08 pm Then I think we have a different definition of withdrawal. My definition is expenses=withdrawal. Everything else is simply reallocation.
At the micro level, yes expenses = withdrawal unless we consider borrowing money.

However, discussing withdraw methodologies goes a lot further than that in terms of defining how much you can withdraw, for how long, the risk of running out of money etc etc.
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Wiggums
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by Wiggums »

eyemgh wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:42 pm We've run expenses, but we need to tighten it up...a lot. We're starting to track every penny next month. We won't turn off the faucet for at least 2 years, but probably right then. We have our SS strategy figured out via open social security. No pension, but we have an income producing property...for now, unless we move. The western fires are taking a toll on us. Fortunately, we have plenty in qualified plans. We're just trying to plan ahead to optimize, so we can understand if we can splurge here and there or not.
Tracking your expenses is a great idea. Also make a list of things that do not occur annually just for reference. For example, new car, roof, HVAC, etc

I agree with DBR that your retirement expenses with be variable.
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by jebmke »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:33 pm
jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:08 pm Then I think we have a different definition of withdrawal. My definition is expenses=withdrawal. Everything else is simply reallocation.
At the micro level, yes expenses = withdrawal unless we consider borrowing money.

However, discussing withdraw methodologies goes a lot further than that in terms of defining how much you can withdraw, for how long, the risk of running out of money etc etc.
That's true; although technically I don't control expenses (withdrawal) completely. If I had an emergency, unusual capital item or a large tax bill I'd spend whatever it took. For that reason I don't even look at "rate" of actual withdrawal. I look at sustainability of the pile going forward. We may be saying the same thing, conceptually.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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eyemgh
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by eyemgh »

jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:44 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:33 pm
jebmke wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:08 pm Then I think we have a different definition of withdrawal. My definition is expenses=withdrawal. Everything else is simply reallocation.
At the micro level, yes expenses = withdrawal unless we consider borrowing money.

However, discussing withdraw methodologies goes a lot further than that in terms of defining how much you can withdraw, for how long, the risk of running out of money etc etc.
That's true; although technically I don't control expenses (withdrawal) completely. If I had an emergency, unusual capital item or a large tax bill I'd spend whatever it took. For that reason I don't even look at "rate" of actual withdrawal. I look at sustainability of the pile going forward. We may be saying the same thing, conceptually.
I'm not as interested in rate per se, but how to manage the withdraw of funds and AA. The common wisdom is to pick an AA, pull your money you need and rebalance every year. McClung claims his Extended Mortality Updating method will result in both increased safety (defined as less chance of running out of money) and higher returns (15-50%). The amortization method is purported to be even better. That's really what I'm trying to wrap my head around, the mechanics.
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Re: Withdraw Methodologies

Post by heyyou »

To me, a variable withdrawal amount based on the remaining recent portfolio value, seems better. You are still relying on historical data for the spending %, but you are adjusting the gross amount, to current conditions.

Look into the RMD retirement spending method. It uses the RMD percentage for your age, applied to your recent entire portfolio amount, not just the money in your traditional IRA, plus spending last year's dividends and interest, each year. As your portfolio changes in value each year, so does your annual spending amount, which is the best solution for portfolio longevity while also boosting your spending if you are lucky. The spending variations are not extreme and your spending rate rises as your portfolio size may be shrinking. The withdrawal percentage does not rise to 4% until about age 71 but the dividends and interest help in those early years. I like how you can see next year's expected spending as your portfolio value fluctuates this year. Adapting your annual withdrawal amount to your remaining asset level, just makes sense to me.

The method was developed at Boston College's Center for Retirement Research. The brief of the long academic paper is all you need. The RMD numbers are buried in the appendix of the brief. In the paper, the references to the ideal rate are if the new retiree already knew each of the next 30 years of his/hers future returns.
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