U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:28 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:18 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:44 amValuations and relative asset prices are the best tool we have to inform future investment decisions
They may be the "best" tool but they are still really bad tools at predicting the future. And long-term, so far, it doesn't matter.

I might need to pound in a nail and all I have is a screwdriver and some sandpaper.

Sure, someone can come along and say "the screwdriver is the BEST tool you have", and even write a bunch of PhD papers on it, but it still will be really poor at pounding in a nail.

If an asset class has high relative valuations, it has been best to allocate more towards assets with the same (or similar) long-term returns but where the valuations are at much lower levels.

Now, can you be sure that the reversion will happen in a period of a few years? No, but over the long-term it's a pretty sure bet. There are numerous examples.
Long-term, you don't care about reversion. Because long-term it reverts back.

If you actually believe in valuations then you have to believe it both ways. If high valuations indicate poor returns in the short-term, then low valuations indicate good returns in the short-term. And if we get poor returns, then valuations will become lower and will predict good returns.

In the long-term it goes back and forth and you get a good decent AVERAGE return. That was my point above.

Valuations have not done a good job predicting returns since the day they were "discovered". Shiller came up with CAPE in 1988 looking at data from the past hundred years. Of course valuations and the predictions worked from 1900-1988 since that was the data CAPE was DERIVED from.

But since 1992, valuations have been high or very high or insanely high by 1900-1988 standards, and yet still returns have been decent or even good.

Valuations may be the "best" tool we have, but "best" doesn't mean good. It has been a TERRIBLE tool at predicting returns since it was discovered.

You put far too much value in it.
This is particularly important to note for a retiree. We are entering into a period that may be extremely dangerous from a SORR perspective should they only be investing in 60% US LC stocks and 40% bonds.
40% in bonds is how you handle SORR. Even 1% dividends from stocks and bonds helps. The bond money can last a long time.

60/40 means one can easily handle a stock downturn that lasts 1-5 years, and even one that lasts 10-12 years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 8:04 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:28 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:18 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:44 amValuations and relative asset prices are the best tool we have to inform future investment decisions
They may be the "best" tool but they are still really bad tools at predicting the future. And long-term, so far, it doesn't matter.

I might need to pound in a nail and all I have is a screwdriver and some sandpaper.

Sure, someone can come along and say "the screwdriver is the BEST tool you have", and even write a bunch of PhD papers on it, but it still will be really poor at pounding in a nail.

If an asset class has high relative valuations, it has been best to allocate more towards assets with the same (or similar) long-term returns but where the valuations are at much lower levels.

Now, can you be sure that the reversion will happen in a period of a few years? No, but over the long-term it's a pretty sure bet. There are numerous examples.
Long-term, you don't care about reversion. Because long-term it reverts back.

If you actually believe in valuations then you have to believe it both ways. If high valuations indicate poor returns in the short-term, then low valuations indicate good returns in the short-term. And if we get poor returns, then valuations will become lower and will predict good returns.

In the long-term it goes back and forth and you get a good decent AVERAGE return. That was my point above.

Valuations have not done a good job predicting returns since the day they were "discovered". Shiller came up with CAPE in 1988 looking at data from the past hundred years. Of course valuations and the predictions worked from 1900-1988 since that was the data CAPE was DERIVED from.

But since 1992, valuations have been high or very high or insanely high by 1900-1988 standards, and yet still returns have been decent or even good.

Valuations may be the "best" tool we have, but "best" doesn't mean good. It has been a TERRIBLE tool at predicting returns since it was discovered.

You put far too much value in it.
This is particularly important to note for a retiree. We are entering into a period that may be extremely dangerous from a SORR perspective should they only be investing in 60% US LC stocks and 40% bonds.
40% in bonds is how you handle SORR. Even 1% dividends from stocks and bonds helps. The bond money can last a long time.

60/40 means one can easily handle a stock downturn that lasts 1-5 years, and even one that lasts 10-12 years.
This is a very simplistic way to look at the market and valuations, especially when some of these trends can persist for decades. Mean reversion can occur for a very long time and sometimes swing in completely the opposite direction. This has a material impact on someone's investment horizon. If someone is highly diversified, I think you're largely correct even if it may be sub-optimal to not try some adjustments at the extremes. The problem is that the spreads between US and exUS as well as Growth vs Value are some of the largest in historical record. P/E Ratios for US TSM are at levels not seen since the tech bubble and basically at historical all time highs. Meanwhile, you can find bargains in other markets with much higher expected returns on the basis of valuations.

Your argument is that valuations never matter, and I simply completely disagree. They obviously mattered a great deal for Japanese investors. You can feel free to remain oblivious to what's going on around you and march forward with a largely 100% US TSM at these levels despite the historic evidence suggesting very poor returns are projected going forward and that there are much higher expected returns elsewhere. If you're happy to have dead decades, fine. Diamond hand that allocation and hope that it turns out OK.

If someone is mostly 100% US TSM with Bonds in the mix, then I don't necessarily think you can make this claim that everything will "turn out OK" when bonds are at PE/s of 70s and equities at PEs of 40s. Add higher than expected inflation to the mix, and this investor fails a 30 year horizon just like in 1966. Bonds cannot save you in an environment of low bond/equity returns and higher than expected inflation.

You keep hammering the point about total valuations, yet continue to ignore relative valuations. We don't live in a world where every asset is trading at 40 P/E. We can make the choice to invest in areas with higher expected returns, or tilt away (while still being somewhat exposed) to US TSM. And what does the evidence say about relative valuations?

It's pretty clear, over long periods of time the lower asset class for a broadly diversified set of funds with lower relative valuations has superior expected returns. But for many investors it can be painful to try and invest this way because you are not placing your money in the recent winners.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:52 pm

It's pretty clear, over long periods of time the lower asset class for a broadly diversified set of funds with lower relative valuations has superior expected returns. But for many investors it can be painful to try and invest this way because you are not placing your money in the recent winners.

https://mebfaber.com/2019/01/06/you-wou ... ood-thing/
Can you give us examples of assets which have relatively lower valuations? I thought index does this automatically. For example, if you had a world marketcap index in the 80s with Japan being 60% in it, the crash of the Japanese stock market does impact you, but not as much as someone who is entirely in the Japanese stock market. So, right now, US is 60% of the world stock market. If you have 60% of US and remaining ex US, this is all you need rather than trying to figure out what is undervalued and what is overvalued. Would like to know your thoughts.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

revhappy wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:02 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:52 pm

It's pretty clear, over long periods of time the lower asset class for a broadly diversified set of funds with lower relative valuations has superior expected returns. But for many investors it can be painful to try and invest this way because you are not placing your money in the recent winners.

https://mebfaber.com/2019/01/06/you-wou ... ood-thing/
Can you give us examples of assets which have relatively lower valuations? I thought index does this automatically. For example, if you had a world marketcap index in the 80s with Japan being 60% in it, the crash of the Japanese stock market does impact you, but not as much as someone who is entirely in the Japanese stock market. So, right now, US is 60% of the world stock market. If you have 60% of US and remaining ex US, this is all you need rather than trying to figure out what is undervalued and what is overvalued. Would like to know your thoughts.
I think that if you're 60% US and 40% exUS, it's enough to protect you and likely have good results long-term, enough to meet your needs. I think there's a false sense of confidence for those that choose to be 100% US TSM. I also don't think the global market weight is entirely optimal, I would go one step further and diversify my US holdings into US SCV. I would diversify a bit into SCV and EM in my International portflio as well.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:03 pm
My recommendation is to not be so heavily concentrated in 100% US TSM. I am not sure I follow your argument about 1-2% of the portfolio with lower CAPE.
Example: New Zealand is 0.2% of VXUS...0.1% of VT.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:52 pmP/E Ratios for US TSM are at levels not seen since the tech bubble and basically at historical all time highs.
Portfolio Visualizer says that investing in January 2000 - June 2021, one got 7.49% nominal annual return.

That was at the highest valuations in U.S. history. Worst time ever to invest. Yet one still got rich, over the long run. Years of bad, followed by years of good. Long-term average, decent.

A pattern we've seen over and over and over.

Will it repeat? I can't promise anything. Maybe not.

But why are you so confident that long-term returns will be terrible? It hasn't happened yet. So far, bad years are followed by good years. Which makes sense if you actually believe your valuations model. So far, one hasn't needed to move their money around based on valuations. Just buy and hold for the long-run right through the crashes.
If someone is mostly 100% US TSM with Bonds in the mix, then I don't necessarily think you can make this claim that everything will "turn out OK" when bonds are at PE/s of 70s and equities at PEs of 40s. Add higher than expected inflation to the mix, and this investor fails a 30 year horizon just like in 1966. Bonds cannot save you in an environment of low bond/equity returns and higher than expected inflation.
1966 barely failed (3.8% lasted 30 years, 4% lasted like 27 years).

And it took low stock returns, low bond returns, AND high inflation for 10 years...

That's possible to repeat, I suppose, but it has to be WORSE. A repeat is not enough. 4% comes from that 1966 year. It has to be worse for 4% to fail going forward. Low stock returns and low bond returns aren't enough. Even low stock returns and low bond returns and high inflation isn't enough. You have to add even something worse to that mix. Because we've already seen those three things, and still 4% basically worked.

In any case, the world is pretty connected now... I'm not sure that ex-US will do amazingly well in a global depression that takes down the U.S. stock market. But it's possible..

Look, I have no problem with throwing a bit of ex-US into the mix... 20% of my stock portfolio is ex-US.

But valuations have proven themselves pretty worthless so far. U.S. stocks have had high valuations for decades, and still done well, and ex-US stocks have had low valuations for decades and still done terrible.

Sure, history shows that the pendulum swings both ways. It could absolutely could reverse next decade. But valuations have been pretty worthless for a long while now. They've already failed as a prediction tool. Even if the reverse starts next week, valuations were predicting the reverse like 8 years ago.

You don't get to predict a crash for 8 years, and then when it finally happens, claim you're good at predicting the future.

Well, unless your name is Forester I guess. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HomerJ wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:27 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:52 pmP/E Ratios for US TSM are at levels not seen since the tech bubble and basically at historical all time highs.
Portfolio Visualizer says that investing in January 2000 - June 2021, one got 7.49% nominal annual return.

That was at the highest valuations in U.S. history. Worst time ever to invest. Yet one still got rich, over the long run. Years of bad, followed by years of good. Long-term average, decent.

A pattern we've seen over and over and over.

Will it repeat? I can't promise anything. Maybe not.
This coincided with another huge stretch of valuation expansion from 09-21. It just as easily could have been a mediocre decade as an amazing one. P/Es for US vs Intl were basically tracking around the same until this time. This also coincided with Jan 00 having much higher bond returns.
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:27 am But why are you so confident that long-term returns will be terrible? It hasn't happened yet. So far, bad years are followed by good years. Which makes sense if you actually believe your valuations model. So far, one hasn't needed to move their money around based on valuations. Just buy and hold for the long-run right through the crashes.
I'm not necessarily confident that they will be terrible, just far below other asset classes available to invest in given the delta in valuations. US TSM has to continue increasing it's P/E multiples vs exUS vs SCV in order for it to be a better investment. That, or earnings growth needs to be far better than it ever has been in history with ever increasing margins and preferential tax treatment beyond where we are today. I find it unlikely. So I choose to invest elsewhere, while my US TSM exposure gets less. I have collected my US TSM gains as the spreads continue to widen, and I am now tilting more towards markers with higher expected returns.

I don't see much upside for US TSM as long as the valuations continue to look stretched. If at some point in the future they come crashing down and begin to come in line with other markets (As they once were), I will then increase my exposure again.
HomerJ wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:27 am
1966 barely failed (3.8% lasted 30 years, 4% lasted like 27 years).

And it took low stock returns, low bond returns, AND high inflation for 10 years...

That's possible to repeat, I suppose, but it has to be WORSE. A repeat is not enough. 4% comes from that 1966 year. It has to be worse for 4% to fail going forward. Low stock returns and low bond returns aren't enough. Even low stock returns and low bond returns and high inflation isn't enough. You have to add even something worse to that mix. Because we've already seen those three things, and still 4% basically worked.

In any case, the world is pretty connected now... I'm not sure that ex-US will do amazingly well in a global depression that takes down the U.S. stock market. But it's possible..

Look, I have no problem with throwing a bit of ex-US into the mix... 20% of my stock portfolio is ex-US.

But valuations have proven themselves pretty worthless so far. U.S. stocks have had high valuations for decades, and still done well, and ex-US stocks have had low valuations for decades and still done terrible.

Sure, history shows that the pendulum swings both ways. It could absolutely could reverse next decade. But valuations have been pretty worthless for a long while now. They've already failed as a prediction tool. Even if the reverse starts next week, valuations were predicting the reverse like 8 years ago.

You don't get to predict a crash for 8 years, and then when it finally happens, claim you're good at predicting the future.

Well, unless your name is Forester I guess. :)
It could happen, indeed. But even if it doesn't, I personally find the case to invest elsewhere for higher returns to be compelling. I agree with you that you shouldn't use CAPE as a means to "get out of the market". Where I disagree is your claim that you can't use relative CAPE to make tactical asset allocation considerations for the long term. Rather than choosing to be overweight an overvalued market, I simply choose to diversify into other markets with higher expected returns. Time and time again relative CAPE has been a proven winner over the long-term. If the delta isn't extreme, then my stance is more neutral. If the deltas starts approaching manic levels, it gives me pause. Certainly where we are today gives me considerable pause.

We're certainly at an inflection point that most closely resembles the 70s in certain respects, and may be even worse. Of course this is not knowable in advance, but I'd like to have far more than just 20% exUS in case it does. I'd also like to broaden the diversification by looking into SCV as you are not exposed to other risk premiums with a 100% beta strategy.

And I have never predicted a crash. You don't need a crash to have bad returns adjusted for inflation. My concern has always been long-term underperformance, not short-term crashes.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

It might be the 2040s before the S&P 500 reaches 5,000. The story of 2017 onward is future returns being greedily brought forward into the present.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Good, seems like SPX hitting 5000 next week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc »

Forester wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:10 am It might be the 2040s before the S&P 500 reaches 5,000. The story of 2017 onward is future returns being greedily brought forward into the present.
Interestingly the emotion index is currently pointing at extreme fear.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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The discussion is straying into a "US vs. international" debate.

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market only (increasing).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Quote of the day:
“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”
link
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:56 am Quote of the day:
“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”
link
Eventually either a) the historical indicators will work or b) we’ll change the indicators to make them work. :)

Even assuming A it could keep going for a while before it stops…we could be celebrating in this soaring thread longer than the remainder of my accumulation phase…which is admittedly getting shorter but not immediate…
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LadyGeek wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:47 am The discussion is straying into a "US vs. international" debate.

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market only (increasing).
Thank you for keeping us on track.

Forester has spoken this morning. If the S&P doesn’t achieve 5,000 until 2040, that implies a 0.8% annual nominal increase between now and then.

On the other hand, I believe that a close over 4,400 will happen soon - maybe this week.

We’ll see who’s closer to right.
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Stinky wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:23 am
LadyGeek wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:47 am The discussion is straying into a "US vs. international" debate.

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market only (increasing).
Thank you for keeping us on track.

Forester has spoken this morning. If the S&P doesn’t achieve 5,000 until 2040, that implies a 0.8% annual nominal increase between now and then.

On the other hand, I believe that a close over 4,400 will happen soon - maybe this week.

We’ll see who’s closer to right.
Forester of course. (Don’t jinx us dude! If we crater next week we know who to blame…)
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I removed an off-topic post commenting about a forum member.

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market (increasing).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Hello my.old friend..u were missed yesterday
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:52 am Hello my.old friend..u were missed yesterday
Will we recover all of yesterday’s losses?

It looks like we have a fighting chance to do so.
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Taper in progress.
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Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:26 pm Taper in progress.
Taper of losses?
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Post by namajones »

I do remember schizophrenic swings up and down as being a precursor to the crash of 2000. Not sure whether that was typical of other major downturns.
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Post by namajones »

Forester wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:10 am It might be the 2040s before the S&P 500 reaches 5,000. The story of 2017 onward is future returns being greedily brought forward into the present.
Probably says it well enough. Not sure how else you account for a doubling of the market in 5 years.
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Post by anoop »

namajones wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:03 pm I do remember schizophrenic swings up and down as being a precursor to the crash of 2000. Not sure whether that was typical of other major downturns.
It is typical but you can get swings without a crash.
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anoop wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:05 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:03 pm I do remember schizophrenic swings up and down as being a precursor to the crash of 2000. Not sure whether that was typical of other major downturns.
It is typical but you can get swings without a crash.
I remember something like that happening in 08 around the TARP negotiations. The market was swinging 5-10% a day until the bottom finally fell out. Not sure this is anything like 08 though.
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Post by Keenobserver »

How about the feds continuing to babysit wallstreet? Isnt current level of intervention unprecedented?
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/become-4 ... 12593.html
I like the photos (they come with captions too, in case you can't figure out what's going on), especially the 3rd one. I now feel like as soon as I hit 7 figures in my 401k, I can start flying private jet. I'm tired of flying commercial airliners.
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Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:18 pm How about the feds continuing to babysit wallstreet? Isnt current level of intervention unprecedented?
Don't fight the babysitter.
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nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:22 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:56 am Quote of the day:
“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”
link
Eventually either a) the historical indicators will work or b) we’ll change the indicators to make them work. :)

Even assuming A it could keep going for a while before it stops…we could be celebrating in this soaring thread longer than the remainder of my accumulation phase…which is admittedly getting shorter but not immediate…
And then we will claim the indicator has always worked, and you would be a fool not to follow it.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Post by nigel_ht »

marcopolo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:54 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:22 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:56 am Quote of the day:
“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”
link
Eventually either a) the historical indicators will work or b) we’ll change the indicators to make them work. :)

Even assuming A it could keep going for a while before it stops…we could be celebrating in this soaring thread longer than the remainder of my accumulation phase…which is admittedly getting shorter but not immediate…
And then we will claim the indicator has always worked, and you would be a fool not to follow it.
Of course. Sorry, that was an implicit part I left out...
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Post by Keenobserver »

It is a little discerning to see the swings for no explicit reason. Someone here mentioned a similiar pattern occured in 2000 and 2008 before the flood gates opend, which is quite unnerving to hear.
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Post by Marseille07 »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:32 pm It is a little discerning to see the swings for no explicit reason. Someone here mentioned a similiar pattern occured in 2000 and 2008 before the flood gates opend, which is quite unnerving to hear.
I think the reason for yesterday was thou-shall-not-be-named, but it doesn't make much sense we're recovering when the reason isn't at all resolved.
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Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:32 pm It is a little discerning to see the swings for no explicit reason. Someone here mentioned a similiar pattern occured in 2000 and 2008 before the flood gates opend, which is quite unnerving to hear.
A similar pattern. :oops: You could find "swings for no explicit reason" if you looked at just about any month in the last 100+ years.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:32 pm It is a little discerning to see the swings for no explicit reason. Someone here mentioned a similiar pattern occured in 2000 and 2008 before the flood gates opend, which is quite unnerving to hear.
I think the reason for yesterday was thou-shall-not-be-named, but it doesn't make much sense we're recovering when the reason isn't at all resolved.
Inflation?

Maybe. Maybe not. There are probably hundreds or thousands of factors that can make stocks go up or down. The U.S. market has thousands of companies and each of those companies has earnings, news, macro and micro economic factors, and so on. We seem to focus only on the macro factors here, i.e. why did "stocks" go up or down, without paying attention to what may be driving individual companies, which make up the market of "stocks."
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:33 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:32 pm It is a little discerning to see the swings for no explicit reason. Someone here mentioned a similiar pattern occured in 2000 and 2008 before the flood gates opend, which is quite unnerving to hear.
I think the reason for yesterday was thou-shall-not-be-named, but it doesn't make much sense we're recovering when the reason isn't at all resolved.
Inflation?

Maybe. Maybe not. There are probably hundreds or thousands of factors that can make stocks go up or down. The U.S. market has thousands of companies and each of those companies has earnings, news, macro and micro economic factors, and so on. We seem to focus only on the macro factors here, i.e. why did "stocks" go up or down, without paying attention to what may be driving individual companies, which make up the market of "stocks."
We already know what makes it go up. The puzzling part is what makes it go down.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:33 pm Inflation?

Maybe. Maybe not. There are probably hundreds or thousands of factors that can make stocks go up or down. The U.S. market has thousands of companies and each of those companies has earnings, news, macro and micro economic factors, and so on. We seem to focus only on the macro factors here, i.e. why did "stocks" go up or down, without paying attention to what may be driving individual companies, which make up the market of "stocks."
Inflation was my initial hunch but "thou-shall-not-be-named" is something else. My post, talking about the Fed's response to that, was removed. This is why I'm not naming what it is.
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Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

namajones wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:03 pm I do remember schizophrenic swings up and down as being a precursor to the crash of 2000. Not sure whether that was typical of other major downturns.
Same for the 1987 crash IIRC.
Mens cujusque is est quisque
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Maybe it was just a case of the Mondays. I know I felt like -2% myself for a good part of the day.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:39 pm ..."thou-shall-not-be-named" is something else.
I don't wish to name "thou-shall-not-be-named" and break forum rules, but, yes, that indeed was what many news outlets were blaming for the sell-off yesterday. From today:

"The S&P 500 recorded its best day in nearly four months as investors rushed in to buy shares that had been knocked down in Monday’s dramatic selloff.

The rally suggested that even as [thou-shall-not-be-named] casts a shadow over the economic outlook, many investors still see few attractive alternatives to stocks."

I'm not linking to the article, because linking it it would reveal thou-shall-not-be-named.

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about thou-shall-not-be-named. Thank you.
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:32 pm I'm not linking to the article, because linking it it would reveal thou-shall-not-be-named.

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about thou-shall-not-be-named. Thank you.
Stocks up today but I don't like the first rule. I intend to only follow the second rule.
Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe »

Of course:
Market Summary:
S&P 500
4,323.06
+64.57 (1.52%)today
Jul 20, 5:10 PM EDT ·Disclaimer
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

It’s a green morning on Wall Street!

What virus?
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

What a relief. Monday is all but forgotten
xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

Back to soaring - must be legs day for lostdog.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

xraygoggles wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:39 am Back to soaring - must be legs day for lostdog.
That was yesterday. Today is biking day and stopping at the park to chill.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:19 am
xraygoggles wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:39 am Back to soaring - must be legs day for lostdog.
That was yesterday. Today is biking day and stopping at the park to chill.
I guess there won't be a late session melt up :x
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Nice mini melt up before close
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Not quite back to the last ATH from Friday, but should be very close after everything updates later today. :beer
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

I think this is all my fault. I had the unmitigated temerity to break 7 figures in my 401k and now the market is just toying with me by crossing back and forth across that mark as often as possible. I think I've crossed the line 3 times and regressed 3 times. Fourth time is a charm?
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Portfolio7 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:56 pm I think this is all my fault. I had the unmitigated temerity to break 7 figures in my 401k and now the market is just toying with me by crossing back and forth across that mark as often as possible. I think I've crossed the line 3 times and regressed 3 times. Fourth time is a charm?
Yep, it's your fault. It happened to me too.

It will torment you for awhile.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

rchmx1 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:17 pm Not quite back to the last ATH from Friday, but should be very close after everything updates later today. :beer
This was sure to happen as I said last week. My 401k typically makes its buys when we are at ATHs. I assumed after Monday we would be well on our way back to ATHs by Friday.
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