U.S. stocks in free fall

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

MichaelAZ wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:56 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:07 pm Do the holdings in your new account, lumped in with your tax-deferred accounts, meet your selected overall asset allocation?
Yes, they do.
Great! It seems a lot of people (even here) don't pay any attention to it. :D

Seems pretty important, to me anyway.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
ruud
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruud »

Bluce wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
as depicted in this famous cartoon
.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

ruud wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:09 pm
Bluce wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
as depicted in this famous cartoon
Hahahaha! Something like that anyway. :sharebeer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Trader Joe »

Really?

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fortfun
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fortfun »

retiringwhen wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:08 pm
fortfun wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:50 pm
retiringwhen wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:36 pm Heh, cool idea. What software is that?
home brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date! :twisted:
Thoughts about having drawdown go above 100%?
By definition impossible. A drawdown is the percentage that the current balance is down from the all-time high in the past. If if a new high is achieved, all future balances are measured from that date. We don't re-write the past (I am not Marty McFly :D )
Ha! I was thinking about the concept of taking 5% during good years and 2% during poor years. It seems like some people like this approach to the 4% rule.
adamthesmythe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by adamthesmythe »

(W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
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runcyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

adamthesmythe wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:34 am (W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
...and many of the same buyers driving up the market today, will probably sell and drive it lower next week. 🍿
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

runcyc wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:42 am
adamthesmythe wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:34 am (W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
...and many of the same buyers driving up the market today, will probably sell and drive it lower next week. 🍿
Or maybe it will be flat next week, like nobody can make up their mind.

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flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

I regret not buying some mutual funds on Monday.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

flyingaway wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:33 pm I regret not buying some mutual funds on Monday.
Did you not rebalance, or are we talking dry powder money that you might have deployed?
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000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Not August because we need enough time to forget he ever said that. Not December because it's far enough in the future that it would dampen the IMPENDING DOOM effect.
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runcyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

and because the various clairvoyant ones at Stansberry Research keep saying to move your money soon!
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
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runcyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

Or maybe the economy grows at the Fed's target pace. No one knows the exact timing.
Last edited by runcyc on Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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runcyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
Those factors could certainly be inflationary. But whether that correlates to a "liquidity crisis" is unknown by anyone. The Fed's objective is some "moderate" inflation, consistent with an expanding economy. Whether that can be achieved without too high inflation and subsequent higher-than-planned interest rates isn't known for certain by anyone.
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