Space Flight and Roth conversion

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LadyGeek
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by LadyGeek »

HootingSloth wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:05 pm
lurkman wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:52 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:16 am Good point, I stand corrected.

Mars has no post office, so that may present a problem for determining legal residence. How is residency established on Earth if all you do is sail the ocean without touching land? Antarctica has treaties, so I'm guessing that's covered somewhere.
Also, if the American flag is planted on Mars, I expect some territorial claim may be implicitly established. I mean that's how countries were formed in the past. They'd have to take a number and get in line to be considered for statehood. Similar delays can be expected on the question of legal residence.
The United States is a party to the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), often referred to as the "Outer Space Treaty." Article II of the Treaty provides that "outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means." As a result, I believe we would be violating our commitments under international law if we were to make a territorial claim on Mars.

If we go to Mars, there will surely be lots of interesting legal questions and rapid development in space law with uncertainty reigning in the interim.
Here's the official source: The Outer Space Treaty, from the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA).

The treaty is in a PDF file, but you can also find it online at NASA: Outer Space Treaty of 1967
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freight_train
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by freight_train »

$4.3 billion dollars may seem a ludicrous amount for Fry's bank account, but it is correct. Starting with 93 cents, compound interest of 2.25% over 1000 years comes to exactly $4,283,508,449.71.
Escheat will get you. Good luck proving ownership after 1000 years. :D
TheTurtle
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by TheTurtle »

Homerj: Clearly I need to dream bigger 😂
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:47 pm
TheTurtle wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:38 pm I must admit my first stray thought (reinforced by Lady geek's discussion of expat status on Mars) was: in the even further future where humans can travel close to a black hole (a la Interstellar), retirement ages, RMD ages, etc. could be gamed by time dilation 😀🤣. Just go take a quick lap near one and voila, you're 59.5 (although your body hasn't aged).
It's not about aging to 59.5... Take 3 quick laps near one, let your money back on Earth compound interest for 200 years, and come back to Earth a trillionaire.

Like good old Fry in Futurama being frozen for a thousand years, then checking his old bank account.
$4.3 billion dollars may seem a ludicrous amount for Fry's bank account, but it is correct. Starting with 93 cents, compound interest of 2.25% over 1000 years comes to exactly $4,283,508,449.71.
Silly Futurama writers... 2.25% interest... Such dreamers... Don't they know that interest rates will be low forever? That's what I've been told here.
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by HomerJ »

nigel_ht wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:12 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:47 pm
TheTurtle wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:38 pm I must admit my first stray thought (reinforced by Lady geek's discussion of expat status on Mars) was: in the even further future where humans can travel close to a black hole (a la Interstellar), retirement ages, RMD ages, etc. could be gamed by time dilation 😀🤣. Just go take a quick lap near one and voila, you're 59.5 (although your body hasn't aged).
It's not about aging to 59.5... Take 3 quick laps near one, let your money back on Earth compound interest for 200 years, and come back to Earth a trillionaire.

Like good old Fry in Futurama being frozen for a thousand years, then checking his old bank account.
$4.3 billion dollars may seem a ludicrous amount for Fry's bank account, but it is correct. Starting with 93 cents, compound interest of 2.25% over 1000 years comes to exactly $4,283,508,449.71.
Silly Futurama writers... 2.25% interest... Such dreamers... Don't they know that interest rates will be low forever? That's what I've been told here.
Of course a burger cost 5.25 galactic credits or $5.25B...
Yeah, exactly... They ignored inflation in that episode.
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Nicolas »

Mars ain't the kind of place to raise your kids
In fact it's cold as hell
And there's no one there to raise them if you did
— Elton John, Bernie Taupin
Mens cujusque is est quisque
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HomerJ
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by HomerJ »

Nicolas wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:47 pm Mars ain't the kind of place to raise your kids
In fact it's cold as hell
And there's no one there to raise them if you did
— Elton John, Bernie Taupin
You know that actually brings up a good point.

One of the qualifications might be that you are willing to have kids at some point.

A colony full of people who never want kids (or are too old) is not likely to be successful in the long run... :)

But I guess the first 20-40 years it will just all be immigration until things are built up enough and stable enough to handle children.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Trader Joe
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Trader Joe »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:12 am So... they told me:
"Always be yourself... Unless you can be an Astronaut, then just be an Astronaut"
And thus:

This thread is to be about how to manage money when working around an unusual constraint. It is not about the politics or practicalities of the constraint. I'm here to ask about and discuss How to do a thing; not why to do it or even whether it can be done. I'll Take PM's about the technical or political stuff but forum rules say not here.

The constraint:
SpaceX Starship is on track to put humans on Mars in 2026. If that goes well they could sell Mars tickets to the public by 2030. I plan to be ready to buy one of those tickets ASAP and never come back. I'm 33 years old. This means I want to be able to liquidate everything before I hit any of the special ages for penalty free withdraws.

To meet the constraint I require three things
1.) Health.
2.) Training and expertise.
3.) Roth Money.

For requirement 1 I work out for 45 minutes a day. This is enough for now but I will increase it about a year before flight time.

For requirement 2 I plan to enroll in SCUBA classes. The critical part of operating a space suite is almost identical to operating a SCUBA tank so this should be an easy win. I also work in automation on robotic systems (servos conveyors ect.). This skill set seems vital for operation of construction industry in a non-shirt-sleeves environment.

For requirement 3 I come to you fine folks to ask if my current investing strategy is optimal or if I can improve it somehow. Please advise.

Here's what I'm currently putting in VTSAX each month:
$500 to a Roth IRA maxing it out
$1625 to a Roth 401k maxing that out
$1500 to a Taxable account

This has gotten me roughly the following:
$320,000 of VTSAX in a taxable account
$20,000 of VTSAX in a tax differed account (from a 401k rollover)
$360,000 of VTSAX in a Roth IRA

I would prefer the tax differed money to be Roth so that I will be free to liquidate it without penalty when the time comes. I expect at least a year of warning during which I can maneuver to lower penalties and maximize recoverable funds. The more money I have when I cash out the more equipment I can take with me to Mars so every penny counts. I am making $110,000 a year with no debt and no dependents (so 24% tax bracket). Should I do a Roth conversion and just pay the tax now or should I leave the tax differed as tax differed.

Musk has claimed he wants to get tickets down to $200,000. His numbers are always a little... off, so I'm betting at least $1,000,000 for an early ticket but again mo-money mo-equipment and the colony is gona need all the hardware we can afford so investing efficiency counts.

Does anyone know what level of government writes the rules governing qualified distributions? Does anyone know who I should talk to if I want to push for "Tickets to the Mars colony" to be on the qualified distribution list? It feels like the kind of thing that could be a national priority right?

Many thanks for any suggestions on strategy I always learn a lot when I ask you folks things. Yes, I know I'm crazy, lets talk crazy together!
Onwards and Upwards TO MARS!!! :sharebeer


PS. I would enjoy PM's regarding the technical aspects of the Starship vehicle and program or the political aspects. If you must insult the program I only enjoy creative insults as I've heard all the standard ones, like seriously use big words and be exotic in your bile you owe it to your side to put on a good showing but most importantly KEEP IT IN THE PM's.
1. Yes, always be yourself.
2. Your plan looks perfect.

I sincerely hope that you reach your goals.
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Misenplace »

HootingSloth wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:05 pm
lurkman wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:52 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:16 am Good point, I stand corrected.

Mars has no post office, so that may present a problem for determining legal residence. How is residency established on Earth if all you do is sail the ocean without touching land? Antarctica has treaties, so I'm guessing that's covered somewhere.
Also, if the American flag is planted on Mars, I expect some territorial claim may be implicitly established. I mean that's how countries were formed in the past. They'd have to take a number and get in line to be considered for statehood. Similar delays can be expected on the question of legal residence.
The United States is a party to the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967), often referred to as the "Outer Space Treaty." Article II of the Treaty provides that "outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means." As a result, I believe we would be violating our commitments under international law if we were to make a territorial claim on Mars.

If we go to Mars, there will surely be lots of interesting legal questions and rapid development in space law with uncertainty reigning in the interim.
Maybe, but likely the Mars outpost/building itself would be considered a U.S. territory (as opposed to the Mars land it sits on), in order to protect it under UN Charter Article 2(4) "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations."
At least that would help avoid the ex-pat status.
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Neutron_Star
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Neutron_Star »

Two pages, ya'll overwhelm me. As in OP I'm still asking for critique on my responses below, this is intended to be a learning exercise so be ruthless if you know a better way or can prove my biases do not reflect the reality we live in. Please and thank you.

The gist of the on-topic criticism I see above are:
1.) Roth will let me withdraw the contributions only not the gains.
2.) I have a strong home country bias in my portfolio.
3.) I have large sequence of returns risk from being all stocks.

To which I say:
1.) Yup BUT, it beats tax deferred for my purposes because I can at least get some of it free and clear. As to the gains I might be able to borrow against it as I will still be alive to withdraw it and send it to the creditor when I reach 50 (it is 50 right?) or will it to same as collateral.

2.) Yes this also true but I'm doing so for reasons unrelated to the topic at hand. My bias in this area comes from a set of arguments based in geography, demographics, and military equipment stocks/military training spend, which has been laid out by a pundit named Peter Ziehan. I don't like some of the "just so" nature of his narrative but find his number compelling after I checked them, I would love to be linked to a take-down of his thesis if any of you know of one as well researched.

3.) Yes this is true but considering that I have an essentially unknowable goal and the timetable is speculative at best I don't know of anyway to plan against that other then to go full speed also can anyone tell me today that bonds are a good investment with negative real returns?


On the off topic criticism because I can't help myself. Mods just tell me to take it over to NASASpaceFlight Forums and I will... Till then:
3.) Timing, Musk has a history of missing stated deadlines, why am I so bullish on his most speculative endeavor yet?
4.) Radiation/Gravity/Perchlorates/Cold/Air Aka hostile environment is hostile.
5.) Jurisdiction/Permission/Funding won't all the other crabs in the bucket drag the adventurous down.

3.) After Looking at all of Musk's projects I can identify only two major initiatives that missed by more than a year they are Falcon Heavy and crew dragon. I believe that both had unforeseen and understandable extenuating circumstances. Falcon Heavy was supposed to be a simple lash three Falcon 9's together and get three times the payload capacity. Well it turned out that when one is doing rocket engineering repurposing hardware from it's original design goals is hard. It is doubly hard when the design of what you are starting from is changing every week. Falcon Heavey was officially announced in 2011 to fly by 2013 but it didn't actually fly till 2018 so a "two year project" took 7. Looks bad but during that same time they got Cargo Dragon flying to the ISS, Falcon 9 reuse working, and launched the first Starlink prototypes.
Speaking of Crew Dragon, for 40% less money they got two NASA crews to the ISS with the other contract awardee got 0 crews to the station. So over time under budget and not only delivered but lapped the competition. Why over time? NASA crew rating paperwork of course i.e. not his fault. I'm Ok with that kind of a track record.

Here's the thing on Musk he believes like I do, smart people under pressure produce results. He even said as much about schedules "If it's long it's wrong. If it's tight it's right." also "If a design is taking too long it's a bad design and you should start over from scratch". I don't point out these circumstances around the projects that missed deadlines, and this design philosophy out, because of hero worship or a need to believe, but rather, I see these facts as provable evidence of past success which vaguely points at what we might expect behavior-wise in the future. Starship is a "green-field" design so won't suffer the Falcon Heavy problem when major sub components change dew to forces outside the project. And as to the hallowed and expensive "Man Rating" problem he can just skip it by not sending NASA people, I'm sure he can find volenteers from his own organization if "Man Rating" starts to slow him down.

These circumstances also make me somewhat glad that SpaceX keeps rejecting my applications. A pay cut for double the workload and the constant knowledge that there are ten college grads who will do my job for less sounds... like an uncomfortable working environment (but if anyone knows a contact PM me, lol).

Oh wow that was a quick hour... 4 and 5 to come later. Forgive me I got carried away.
Till next time Stay Classy San Diego. :sharebeer
marcopolo
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by marcopolo »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:51 pm Two pages, ya'll overwhelm me. As in OP I'm still asking for critique on my responses below, this is intended to be a learning exercise so be ruthless if you know a better way or can prove my biases do not reflect the reality we live in. Please and thank you.

The gist of the on-topic criticism I see above are:
1.) Roth will let me withdraw the contributions only not the gains.
2.) I have a strong home country bias in my portfolio.
3.) I have large sequence of returns risk from being all stocks.

To which I say:
1.) Yup BUT, it beats tax deferred for my purposes because I can at least get some of it free and clear. As to the gains I might be able to borrow against it as I will still be alive to withdraw it and send it to the creditor when I reach 50 (it is 50 right?) or will it to same as collateral.

2.) Yes this also true but I'm doing so for reasons unrelated to the topic at hand. My bias in this area comes from a set of arguments based in geography, demographics, and military equipment stocks/military training spend, which has been laid out by a pundit named Peter Ziehan. I don't like some of the "just so" nature of his narrative but find his number compelling after I checked them, I would love to be linked to a take-down of his thesis if any of you know of one as well researched.

3.) Yes this is true but considering that I have an essentially unknowable goal and the timetable is speculative at best I don't know of anyway to plan against that other then to go full speed also can anyone tell me today that bonds are a good investment with negative real returns?


On the off topic criticism because I can't help myself. Mods just tell me to take it over to NASASpaceFlight Forums and I will... Till then:
3.) Timing, Musk has a history of missing stated deadlines, why am I so bullish on his most speculative endeavor yet?
4.) Radiation/Gravity/Perchlorates/Cold/Air Aka hostile environment is hostile.
5.) Jurisdiction/Permission/Funding won't all the other crabs in the bucket drag the adventurous down.

3.) After Looking at all of Musk's projects I can identify only two major initiatives that missed by more than a year they are Falcon Heavy and crew dragon. I believe that both had unforeseen and understandable extenuating circumstances. Falcon Heavy was supposed to be a simple lash three Falcon 9's together and get three times the payload capacity. Well it turned out that when one is doing rocket engineering repurposing hardware from it's original design goals is hard. It is doubly hard when the design of what you are starting from is changing every week. Falcon Heavey was officially announced in 2011 to fly by 2013 but it didn't actually fly till 2018 so a "two year project" took 7. Looks bad but during that same time they got Cargo Dragon flying to the ISS, Falcon 9 reuse working, and launched the first Starlink prototypes.
Speaking of Crew Dragon, for 40% less money they got two NASA crews to the ISS with the other contract awardee got 0 crews to the station. So over time under budget and not only delivered but lapped the competition. Why over time? NASA crew rating paperwork of course i.e. not his fault. I'm Ok with that kind of a track record.

Here's the thing on Musk he believes like I do, smart people under pressure produce results. He even said as much about schedules "If it's long it's wrong. If it's tight it's right." also "If a design is taking too long it's a bad design and you should start over from scratch". I don't point out these circumstances around the projects that missed deadlines, and this design philosophy out, because of hero worship or a need to believe, but rather, I see these facts as provable evidence of past success which vaguely points at what we might expect behavior-wise in the future. Starship is a "green-field" design so won't suffer the Falcon Heavy problem when major sub components change dew to forces outside the project. And as to the hallowed and expensive "Man Rating" problem he can just skip it by not sending NASA people, I'm sure he can find volenteers from his own organization if "Man Rating" starts to slow him down.

These circumstances also make me somewhat glad that SpaceX keeps rejecting my applications. A pay cut for double the workload and the constant knowledge that there are ten college grads who will do my job for less sounds... like an uncomfortable working environment (but if anyone knows a contact PM me, lol).

Oh wow that was a quick hour... 4 and 5 to come later. Forgive me I got carried away.
Till next time Stay Classy San Diego. :sharebeer
Maybe i missed it somewhere. But, everything I have seen about Musk's Mars mission is about traval to Mars and back. I do not recall seeing anything about maintaining a colony on Mars. That seems like a very different level of complexity. How are you making that leap to an operational colony on Mars able/willing to take an amateur space traveler in your time horizon?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Noobvestor
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Noobvestor »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:51 pm My bias in this area comes from a set of arguments based in geography, demographics, and military equipment stocks/military training spend, which has been laid out by a pundit named Peter Ziehan. I don't like some of the "just so" nature of his narrative but find his number compelling after I checked them, I would love to be linked to a take-down of his thesis if any of you know of one as well researched.
I'm way too lazy to look up some 'expert' I've never heard of and try to debunk his elaborate theory on how he knows better than the markets how to price stocks. It's easy to list off arguments - harder to make the case they result in worldwide mispricing of one nation's securities. I suggest you take a step back, read more and consider what is rationally neutral: taking one person's arguments for it or starting with a diversified baseline?

Regardless: I think you know you're too concentrated in stocks and US stocks in particular. Or maybe that's part of the gambit - if the US outperforms (despite already high valuations) then maybe your rocket is more likely to take off. Seems like a compound gamble to me but your mileage may vary. All you really need to do is find a sample period (like 2000 to 2010) where all-US investing did poorly. Happened just a decade ago. Could happen again.

As for Musk ... he doesn't exactly have a stellar track record as an employer. I don't think I'd want to be his underline on another planet. :S
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
Topic Author
Neutron_Star
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Neutron_Star »

Shout outs:
JupiterJones wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:48 am All that said, you're missing one more requirement:

4.) Go nine years or more without developing a reason to stick around on Earth
Yes this is a serious problem but a happy one. Finding a good partner who wants to make babies is the second best thing that could happen to me. The first best would be finding one who wants to do it on Mars, lol.
Watty wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:04 am You might add a fourth thing to your list.

4) Mental preparation.

To be accepted into a program like you want you would no doubt need to go through a detailed psychological screening process. To be prepared for that you might want to start talking to a physiatrist start getting prepared for that step.
This is a great point. I of course like my odds (who doesn't). The pandemic affected me very little as I live alone and was very happy to entertain myself with my books and computer games and online forums... Isolation works for me. Mars will be very communal (expensive living space) this I also enjoy it sounds like college dorms only with smarter more interesting people, cool. But If anyone has any info on how to get declared "Hyper-Stable" or w/e please advise.
Jags4186 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:00 am My recommendation is to plan like this is never going to happen.
You should talk to Trader Joe
Trader Joe wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm 1. Yes, always be yourself.
2. Your plan looks perfect.

I sincerely hope that you reach your goals.
Thanks Joe I'm quite sure that you, are a steely eye'ed missile man.
Watty wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:57 am I will play along.
Don't you mean "I'll play your game you rogue."
TheTurtle wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:38 pm Never expected to read this on Bogleheads.org, but glad to see people thinking big and thinking long term.

I would recommend learning to fly. Granted you are not going to get high g experience in a small private craft, but it might be useful along with the other training you mention...

...I have similar vague ambitions although I have not planned in as much detail as the OP seems to have. If it ever happens, My path will likely be as a mission specialist (I work in a science lab).

I have no financial advice or comments, just wanted to encourage the OP to keep at it. All the best!
I fly a Paramotor but it's not likely to be applicable to site to site rocket travel.
I'll send you a link to the version of this I put on NASA Space Flight, for encouragement.
ScubaHogg wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:27 pm Maybe the most original post I’ve ever read on here. Best of luck!
Thank you and you're welcome! :sharebeer

To all the others thank you for all the posts, I'll be back on Thursday.
Last edited by Neutron_Star on Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by LadyGeek »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:51 pm On the off topic criticism because I can't help myself. Mods just tell me to take it over to NASASpaceFlight Forums and I will...
OK. Take it over to to NASASpaceFlight.com Forum. While you're over there, let them know that we'll be happy to help them prepare their finances for flight. Ground dwellers are also welcome.

I'm wondering if there's an opportunity here. Investing "to the moon" suddenly has an entirely new meaning.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Jags4186
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by Jags4186 »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:23 pm
Jags4186 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:00 am My recommendation is to plan like this is never going to happen.
You should talk to Trader Joe
Sorry if my post sounds negative but I actually mean this as advice. Even if all of your intentions and planning are optimal, there is an incredibly minuscule chance of you actually getting on a spaceship and going to Mars. Don’t make suboptimal choices.

Also, and maybe I don’t quite understand this, if you are planning on going and never coming back, what prevents you from just going and taking a bunch of loans and just…you know…never paying them back?
nigel_ht
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by nigel_ht »

Here’s the difference between launching payloads and launching humans.

Blowing up payloads upsets the insurance carrier but at the end of the day it’s just money (and the occasional life’s work of the PI)

Blowing up humans kill them.

So I’m down with SpaceX’s method of blowing up rockets until they stop blowing up because that’s what you have to do sometimes and at the end of the day it’s cheaper to build that way than the risk adverse NASA way…for unmanned payloads.

But it’s not how you want a passenger services to run. Nobody wants to be the 21st century White Star Lines.

NASA regs for human flight aren’t just bureaucratic nonsense but lessons learned from losing astronauts. Just like air safety regs on how jetliners get built is based on studying crashes that killed people.

You can skip those lessons learned and needlessly kill folks or you can follow them.
akpk
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by akpk »

I enjoyed reading all the comments and perspectives on the matter. I would like to travel to space and rooting for this to become affordable for common folks. But I would never pay to go live on Mars for the rest of my life when we have perfectly good and beautiful Earth to live on.
TheDDC
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by TheDDC »

Watty wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:57 am 100% stocks is too aggressive for money that you expect to need in about ten years. If you do not reduce your stock asset allocation now then you should do that soon.
Nonsense. We issue a "STRONG BUY" 24/7/365 on stocks around here. 100/0 for the win. And I would say if you outlook is ~5 years or more, 100/0 for that money is good. You don't want to loose to inflation, interplanetary or otherwise.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
BabaWawa
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by BabaWawa »

Fascinating thread, thanks. I wish you the best of luck and hope your reach your dream. I was mesmerized by the Blue Origin fight today.

Many in my generation may remain skeptical. We grew up watching the Jetsons and saw a man walk on the moon over 50 years ago. I'm still profoundly disappointed I don't have my flying car yet and I'm running out of time.
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by iamlucky13 »

Awesome goal, but first and foremost, prepare to retire and grow old on earth. That is the most likely outcome, so make sure you're prepared for that.

If you end up with enough money to afford a trip to Mars, you will be really well set for retirement on earth as an alternative, but again, make sure you're prepared for the baseline scenario first, and then try to continue on from there to the stretch goal.
Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:51 pm3.) After Looking at all of Musk's projects I can identify only two major initiatives that missed by more than a year they are Falcon Heavy and crew dragon.
I have been a big SpaceX fan for a long time. It must have been at least since 2004, since I remember them setting up to launch at Vandenberg, but being unable to get clearance to launch there and ultimately moving to Kwajalein. I was thrilled to see Falcon 9 vertical on the pad at Cape Canaveral for the first time in 2009 when I visited, a year late, but seemingly close to launch. I was puzzled when it was moved back to horizontal and disappeared into the hangar for another year without much being said.

So as someone who has been paying close attention, let me make it perfectly clear: SpaceX has missed almost every major target date Musk has set, usually by multiple years (yet ultimately continued to move the needle on ambitious technical goals on a regular basis). The fact that Falcon Heavy was 5 years late really highlighted how deeply Musk is capable of misunderstanding his own industry (numerous launch vehicles have used strap-on boosters, so the fact that in retrospect he expressed surprise at the level of structural modification necessary to do so was very telling).

To highlight this specifically with respect to his Mars plans:
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mu ... 017-10#-34

In 2017, he indicated they were nearly done with designing their Mars rocket, would begin construction in 6 months or so and land their first unmanned rockets on Mars in 2022. In reality, SpaceX went on to completely redesign it multiple times, including scaling down the size, and then even changing the material it would be built out of.

Since then, they have undertaken a frankly astonishingly fast paced prototype and iterate program. I have been thrilled to watch each prototype launch attempt, but it has also showed just how far they still have to go. They haven't even started talking about surface hardware, and I do not expect the FAA regulations to stay static as the expected scale of "human spaceflight participants" increase.

I'm trying to stay topical here, so let me emphasize the main takeaway is there is not a clear time frame when a ticket to Mars might be available.

And then there is the topic of trying to predict the cost, and therefore your savings goal, which I'm not even going to bother to attempt right now.
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snackdog
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by snackdog »

Yesterday's flight was something like $0.7 million per minute per person. I suppose per minute costs would drop on a longer journey and once the craft escaped Earth's gravity. And who knows if perhaps Basic Economy tickets will be available in 8 years when you are ready to relocate. It would not hurt to have a lot of money (via marriage?) or a benevolent Queen Isabella lined up to fund your exploration. Have you considered getting into a line of work which would increase your chances of landing a Martian job that could cover travel, accommodation and per diem? Could be astrophysics, hydroponics, mining or maybe even real estate sales.

I hope you get there! Send us a post card if you do (hey, maybe you could get a USPS job there..?)
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4nursebee
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by 4nursebee »

I do not think that Roth conversion and Space Flight are really that tied together. This forum has plenty of financial advice, so I will not address that much. My thoughts:
1. Consider a cheaper thrill before going all out. Perhaps pay for a zero G flight first.
2. You have seemingly ignored the path of becoming an astronaut. Why?
3. Building wealth seems to be key, I do not see any info on career path or adding to your skill set to be worth more.
4. What in your life to this date makes you think you can handle the rigors of this?

I admire your long forward thinking.
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RetiredCSProf
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by RetiredCSProf »

Neutron_Star wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:51 pm
To which I say:
1.) Yup BUT, it beats tax deferred for my purposes because I can at least get some of it free and clear. As to the gains I might be able to borrow against it as I will still be alive to withdraw it and send it to the creditor when I reach 50 (it is 50 right?) or will it to same as collateral.
...
Isolation works for me
1) You cannot borrow against a Roth IRA. You can borrow against some Roth 401k plans; however, IRS limits loan to $50K (or 50% of account, whichever is less) and generally must be paid back in quarterly, even payments within five years.

2) A flight to Mars will take about three years, in cramped quarters, with other passengers.
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HomerJ
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Re: Space Flight and Roth conversion

Post by HomerJ »

That's a pretty good point about isolation working for the OP.

There will be very little isolation on the trip out and back, and in the Mars colony itself (if one gets established). Space will be at a premium for the first years.
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