Two pages, ya'll overwhelm me. As in OP I'm still asking for critique on my responses below, this is intended to be a learning exercise so be ruthless if you know a better way or can prove my biases do not reflect the reality we live in. Please and thank you.
The gist of the on-topic criticism I see above are:
1.) Roth will let me withdraw the contributions only not the gains.
2.) I have a strong home country bias in my portfolio.
3.) I have large sequence of returns risk from being all stocks.
To which I say:
1.) Yup BUT, it beats tax deferred for my purposes because I can at least get some of it free and clear. As to the gains I might be able to borrow against it as I will still be alive to withdraw it and send it to the creditor when I reach 50 (it is 50 right?) or will it to same as collateral.
2.) Yes this also true but I'm doing so for reasons unrelated to the topic at hand. My bias in this area comes from a set of arguments based in geography, demographics, and military equipment stocks/military training spend, which has been laid out by a pundit named Peter Ziehan. I don't like some of the "just so" nature of his narrative but find his number compelling after I checked them, I would love to be linked to a take-down of his thesis if any of you know of one as well researched.
3.) Yes this is true but considering that I have an essentially unknowable goal and the timetable is speculative at best I don't know of anyway to plan against that other then to go full speed also can anyone tell me today that bonds are a good investment with negative real returns?
On the off topic criticism because I can't help myself. Mods just tell me to take it over to NASASpaceFlight Forums and I will... Till then:
3.) Timing, Musk has a history of missing stated deadlines, why am I so bullish on his most speculative endeavor yet?
4.) Radiation/Gravity/Perchlorates/Cold/Air Aka hostile environment is hostile.
5.) Jurisdiction/Permission/Funding won't all the other crabs in the bucket drag the adventurous down.
3.) After Looking at all of Musk's projects I can identify only two major initiatives that missed by more than a year they are Falcon Heavy and crew dragon. I believe that both had unforeseen and understandable extenuating circumstances. Falcon Heavy was supposed to be a simple lash three Falcon 9's together and get three times the payload capacity. Well it turned out that when one is doing rocket engineering repurposing hardware from it's original design goals is hard. It is doubly hard when the design of what you are starting from is changing every week. Falcon Heavey was officially announced in 2011 to fly by 2013 but it didn't actually fly till 2018 so a "two year project" took 7. Looks bad but during that same time they got Cargo Dragon flying to the ISS, Falcon 9 reuse working, and launched the first Starlink prototypes.
Speaking of Crew Dragon, for 40% less money they got two NASA crews to the ISS with the other contract awardee got 0 crews to the station. So over time under budget and not only delivered but lapped the competition. Why over time? NASA crew rating paperwork of course i.e. not his fault. I'm Ok with that kind of a track record.
Here's the thing on Musk he believes like I do, smart people under pressure produce results. He even said as much about schedules "If it's long it's wrong. If it's tight it's right." also "If a design is taking too long it's a bad design and you should start over from scratch". I don't point out these circumstances around the projects that missed deadlines, and this design philosophy out, because of hero worship or a need to believe, but rather, I see these facts as provable evidence of past success which vaguely points at what we might expect behavior-wise in the future. Starship is a "green-field" design so won't suffer the Falcon Heavy problem when major sub components change dew to forces outside the project. And as to the hallowed and expensive "Man Rating" problem he can just skip it by not sending NASA people, I'm sure he can find volenteers from his own organization if "Man Rating" starts to slow him down.
These circumstances also make me somewhat glad that SpaceX keeps rejecting my applications. A pay cut for double the workload and the constant knowledge that there are ten college grads who will do my job for less sounds... like an uncomfortable working environment (but if anyone knows a contact PM me, lol).
Oh wow that was a quick hour... 4 and 5 to come later. Forgive me I got carried away.
Till next time Stay Classy San Diego.