Retiree Portfolio Model

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sandramjet
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by sandramjet »

I have a question about the Roth conversion section 10. It shows columns for converted amount, and withdrawn amounts. The issue is that if I enter for the first year a conversion of 100K and a withdrawal of 50K it shows the next year balance as 100k, not 50. Looking at the details page, row 129, it appears that any year for which the initial balance is < then the withdrawal then any entered withdrawal amount is ignored.
In other words, it appears the logic is that you want to do the withdrawal first, then conversion. It would seem to me that it should be the other way around. Any chance that logic could be changed?
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

sandramjet wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:35 pm I have a question about the Roth conversion section 10. It shows columns for converted amount, and withdrawn amounts. The issue is that if I enter for the first year a conversion of 100K and a withdrawal of 50K it shows the next year balance as 100k, not 50. Looking at the details page, row 129, it appears that any year for which the initial balance is < then the withdrawal then any entered withdrawal amount is ignored.
In other words, it appears the logic is that you want to do the withdrawal first, then conversion. It would seem to me that it should be the other way around. Any chance that logic could be changed?
The first year withdrawal entry is not used and needs to be changed to "N/A". Conversions must be made before any withdrawals can be entered as this account starts with a $0 balance. I will check on the withdrawal amount being ignored >>> currently the model looks for the beginning year balance to see if the withdrawals for that year can be made, and if the beg balance is lower than the withdraw then it is set to $0. Defer your withdrawal to the following year. I will add a warning in the model that this will happen. Thanks for the report.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

An update is available, although few users will need it. This fixes the Roth Conversion entries on the Details page to include deductions for the first year of Roth conversions. Thanks to BH sandramjet for providing the fix and explaining why he needed it for his situation. Model number 21.1a maintained.
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chassis
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by chassis »

This is a great resource! Thank you @BigFoot48!
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

I am just learning to use this spreadsheet, and I am so grateful. It is incredibly helpful as I try to determine whether and how much of my 401 to convert to a Roth IRA

A feature request: it would help me if a total of IRMAA surcharges could be included in either the Results at the top of the SetUp page, or perhaps in the Results and Input Date Storage near the end of that page.

A newbie question: Eventually I will need to update my version of RPM. Is it posted anywhere as to exactly how to do that? I don't understand how my data wouldn't be overwritten. Or is it as simple as just download the update?

Thank you so much
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diy60
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by diy60 »

DebiT wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:29 pm I am just learning to use this spreadsheet, and I am so grateful. It is incredibly helpful as I try to determine whether and how much of my 401 to convert to a Roth IRA

A feature request: it would help me if a total of IRMAA surcharges could be included in either the Results at the top of the SetUp page, or perhaps in the Results and Input Date Storage near the end of that page.

A newbie question: Eventually I will need to update my version of RPM. Is it posted anywhere as to exactly how to do that? I don't understand how my data wouldn't be overwritten. Or is it as simple as just download the update?

Thank you so much
Here's what I do . . . . IRMAA results are in cells E180, F180, and G180. So if I'm interested in the top of the page summary, I pick a few empty cells and set those empty cells to reference the IRMAA cells. That way I can see what interests me in a convenient location and minimizes excessive scrolling. Hope this helps.
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

diy60 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:02 pm
DebiT wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:29 pm I am just learning to use this spreadsheet, and I am so grateful. It is incredibly helpful as I try to determine whether and how much of my 401 to convert to a Roth IRA

A feature request: it would help me if a total of IRMAA surcharges could be included in either the Results at the top of the SetUp page, or perhaps in the Results and Input Date Storage near the end of that page.

A newbie question: Eventually I will need to update my version of RPM. Is it posted anywhere as to exactly how to do that? I don't understand how my data wouldn't be overwritten. Or is it as simple as just download the update?

Thank you so much
Here's what I do . . . . IRMAA results are in cells E180, F180, and G180. So if I'm interested in the top of the page summary, I pick a few empty cells and set those empty cells to reference the IRMAA cells. That way I can see what interests me in a convenient location and minimizes excessive scrolling. Hope this helps.
Very clever, thank you so much! That accomplishes what I need.

Will keep watching for link or instructions on how to update when it's needed.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

DebiT wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:29 pm I am just learning to use this spreadsheet, and I am so grateful. It is incredibly helpful as I try to determine whether and how much of my 401 to convert to a Roth IRA

A feature request: it would help me if a total of IRMAA surcharges could be included in either the Results at the top of the SetUp page, or perhaps in the Results and Input Date Storage near the end of that page.

A newbie question: Eventually I will need to update my version of RPM. Is it posted anywhere as to exactly how to do that? I don't understand how my data wouldn't be overwritten. Or is it as simple as just download the update?

Thank you so much
Thanks for your comments. It would probably be a good idea to remind users of the IRMAA estimate which could be done as a comment on the expense line at the top of the Results page. DIY60 also had a nice quick solution.

I see that instructions on how to update to a new version are sparse since the introduction of the Clear and Load macros which made it so easy. See the cell comments for those at the top of the Setup page and the brief comment in red in the Instructions cell at the top of Setup. Bottom line is that it's very easy to do using those macros created by another BH.
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Barsoom
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Barsoom »

DebiT wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:29 pmA newbie question: Eventually I will need to update my version of RPM. Is it posted anywhere as to exactly how to do that? I don't understand how my data wouldn't be overwritten. Or is it as simple as just download the update?

Thank you so much
As long as you use the standard input fields, there is a copy button at the top of the Setup tab. After downloading the updated model, click on the Clear Entries button to clear out the example data, then click on the Load Entries/Copy button. It will prompt you for your prior version of the model and then copy your inputs from that file to the new open one.

Be aware that there are a few fields that don't get copied:
  • Any adjustments that you make in the Details tab to the Gross Income and Expenses user adjustment rows.
  • The Tax inflation override field in the Tax Tables tab.
-B
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

Thank you!
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Nyc10036
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Nyc10036 »

My eyesight is not so great these days.
The small font is hard to read.

But what do I have to do if there is no spouse?
Which cell(s) do I change?
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

Fonts size can be adjusted via the zoom feature in Excel.

Spouse settings are on the Setup page in:
1. Ages - Spouse Age and IRA Owner
4. Income - Spouse Social Security, Additional Spousal Benefits
9. Income Taxes - filing status
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Nyc10036
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Nyc10036 »

BigFoot48 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:20 pm Fonts size can be adjusted via the zoom feature in Excel.

Spouse settings are on the Setup page in:
1. Ages - Spouse Age and IRA Owner
4. Income - Spouse Social Security, Additional Spousal Benefits
9. Income Taxes - filing status
Thank you.

I should leave 1 and 4 blank as opposed to 0 ?

.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

Nyc10036 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:16 pm
BigFoot48 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:20 pm Fonts size can be adjusted via the zoom feature in Excel.

Spouse settings are on the Setup page in:
1. Ages - Spouse Age and IRA Owner
4. Income - Spouse Social Security, Additional Spousal Benefits
9. Income Taxes - filing status
Thank you.

I should leave all 1 and 4 blank as opposed to 0 ?

.
Blanks or the letter indicating single or no spouse per the cell menu selection.
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DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

Is there a way to add columns to the Storage area at the end of the setup page? Ideally I'd like the ability to add many columns, as I'm testing various models.
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DebiT
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Re: RPM and Roth conversion question

Post by DebiT »

ByThePond wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:18 pm
BigFoot48 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:24 pm
All expenses are paid out of the Taxable account, and while the model allows a negative balance, for accurate modeling the Taxable account should always have a positive balance by increasing income and/or decreasing expenses.
Thank You.
I imagine this could be made more accurate by increasing income as a series of withdrawals from the Roth account, which probably reflects my reality anyway.
My concern was to verify that the negative balance was already accounted for in the Results Summary. I now see in the Portfolio Cash Flow Diagram that this is so.
I just came upon this post, in searching for an answer to my question. I think it answers it.

In using RPM, after a number of years (at least 10) of Roth Conversions, eventually my taxable account goes to negative. In real life, I assume this means I would pay taxes and other expenses at this point from the Roth. Is this correct? If so, it seems that in RPM I can safely ignore this. Or, should I use section 6 of the Start Up and initiate a series of Roth witdrawals?

Thanks so much.
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Barsoom
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Barsoom »

Are you using the automated withdrawals method of the model? If so, you can set a minimum balance to keep in the taxable account so it never goes below zero.

The flags to control this option are in the General Settings in rows 29-30.

-B
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

No, I'm setting my own, to fill 22% bracket until age 72.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

DebiT wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:05 pm Is there a way to add columns to the Storage area at the end of the setup page? Ideally I'd like the ability to add many columns, as I'm testing various models.
The five columns to the right of the four Store Settings columns are unprotected and the Current Results column of data can be copied to those. If more columns are needed unprotect the page, select the columns, selected format cells and uncheck the locked selection in the Protection tab.
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sandramjet
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by sandramjet »

Barsoom wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:08 pm Are you using the automated withdrawals method of the model? If so, you can set a minimum balance to keep in the taxable account so it never goes below zero.

The flags to control this option are in the General Settings in rows 29-30.
DebiT wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:59 pm No, I'm setting my own, to fill 22% bracket until age 72.
Just to be clear, Barsoom was talking about the setting up near the top (Modeling Options, general settings area "Use Auto Withdrawals"), not the automatic Roth conversion option (Section 10 Optional Roth Conversions). However, if you don't want to use the General Settings option, in the year by year table of Roth conversion amounts you can also specify a Roth withdrawal that will come from the Roth Conversion account and be added to the taxable balances.
ByThePond
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Re: RPM and Roth conversion question

Post by ByThePond »

DebiT wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:50 pm
ByThePond wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:18 pm
BigFoot48 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:24 pm
All expenses are paid out of the Taxable account, and while the model allows a negative balance, for accurate modeling the Taxable account should always have a positive balance by increasing income and/or decreasing expenses.
Thank You.
I imagine this could be made more accurate by increasing income as a series of withdrawals from the Roth account, which probably reflects my reality anyway.
My concern was to verify that the negative balance was already accounted for in the Results Summary. I now see in the Portfolio Cash Flow Diagram that this is so.
I just came upon this post, in searching for an answer to my question. I think it answers it.

In using RPM, after a number of years (at least 10) of Roth Conversions, eventually my taxable account goes to negative. In real life, I assume this means I would pay taxes and other expenses at this point from the Roth. Is this correct? If so, it seems that in RPM I can safely ignore this. Or, should I use section 6 of the Start Up and initiate a series of Roth witdrawals?

Thanks so much.
Yes, this is what I expect to do.

I will have completely converted our t-iras in a few years and probably exhausted our taxable accounts as well. Any/all withdrawals will be from Roths, but RPM is set up to take them from Taxable. Sooner or later taxable might go negative and scary red warnings show up on the spreadsheet. They can be ignored, as the negative Taxable balance is automatically deducted from the overall, final balance.

You can verify this by looking at Portfolio Cash Flow Diagram at the top right of the Setup page. Compare the bottom balances.

If you wanted to, you could prevent this by scheduling recurring transfers into Taxable in section 6 of the Setup page. Since it is based on estimated transfer amounts, it's a blunt tool, and I'd rather have everything in Roth accounts anyway. I don't even expect to have taxable accounts in a few years.

Or, you could just set Setup, line 30 col i to "y" and the program will automatically assume withdrawals come from tax advantaged accounts. ( Just found this out.)
Last edited by ByThePond on Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Barsoom
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Barsoom »

I don't have any ROTH IRAs in my portfolio, but I think that the General Settings Automatic Transfers feature will make additional withdrawals to cover a negative balance. See the rollover comments for the hierarchy of accounts to be withdrawn from. Just set the Minimum After-Tax Balance field to zero.

-B
HoosierJim
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by HoosierJim »

The Chicago Virtual Bogleheads are looking for a few volunteers to share their experiences with the RETIREE PORTFOLIO MODEL. We have recently had meetings demo'ing & discussing Pralana, Financial Toolbox, New Retirement, CFIRESIM, Flexible Retirement Planner, I-orp, etc.

We typically have a zoom meeting with about 30 - 40 people in attendance. I am sure your real life experiences with the tool would be very beneficial to our group. If you would like to talk for 10 minutes or more (and possibly share your screen with an example you whip up), please send me a PM or send an email to chicagovirtualbogleheads@gmail.com. We usually have the meetings on Wednesdays at 7pm Central. We haven't scheduled a time yet so whatever works for you works for us.
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Retiree Portfolio Model - question on section 1 - ages and year factors

Post by helloeveryone »

Silly question I suspect - I've downloaded the RPM, I'm about 90% overwhelmed by the sheer amount of information. In fact, as I'm typing this question - I discovered that the little red arrows allow a pop up window that is very helpful. Also the readme section is great.

My question is for section 1 - Ages and Year Factors

First year - that's straightforward - just put the current year
Yearrs to forecast - I maxed it out at 40 since we're early 40s

I wasn't sure what to put for "end age" - should I just default it to my age + 40 since that's max modeling? or does it mean age when estimate I might die?

Thank you!
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model - question on section 1 - ages and year factors

Post by BigFoot48 »

helloeveryone wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:36 pm My question is for section 1 - Ages and Year Factors

First year - that's straightforward - just put the current year
Yearrs to forecast - I maxed it out at 40 since we're early 40s

I wasn't sure what to put for "end age" - should I just default it to my age + 40 since that's max modeling? or does it mean age when estimate I might die?
It's the age either person might die prior to the end of the selected modeling period. This triggers inherited IRAs and Federal single tax brackets. See the End Age label cell comment or the comment section to the right for the explanation.
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Iconicus
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Iconicus »

Why do I get this error? See how I have plenty in my Roth1? Is it erroneously trying to take it from Roth2 where the balance is 0?

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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

Iconicus wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:09 pm Why do I get this error? See how I have plenty in my Roth1? Is it erroneously trying to take it from Roth2 where the balance is 0?
The $1 withdrawal in Roth 2 is compared to the beginning balance for Roth 2 which must be $0. Remove the $1 and the Data Validation error message should disappear.
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Iconicus
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Iconicus »

But I’m not withdrawing $1 from Roth2. The $1 is a 2nd withdrawal plan from Roth1.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

Iconicus wrote: Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:22 pm But I’m not withdrawing $1 from Roth2. The $1 is a 2nd withdrawal plan from Roth1.
My mistake, the withdrawal 2 data validation is referencing Roth 2, an error. Remove the $1 to get rid of the message. I'll remove that validation, as it's unnecessary and users can download the model if they want a corrected version. This is the first report of this message, which was created when the second withdrawal for Roth 1 was adding, and the data validation entry was not updated. The example data avoided triggering it.

Thanks for report.
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Iconicus
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Iconicus »

I'm trying to figure out how autowithdrawals work. I took the virgin spreadsheet and did the following:
1. turn autowithdrawals on
2. removed income sources
3. removed SPIA amount
4. Made Roth1 200K
5. made expenses 150k

Shouldn't autowithdrawals from Roths keep taxable account from going negative until the Roths run out?

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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

The auto-withdraw feature is very basic and designed just to correct a few years of negative balances, and not to manage an entire modeling period. Users should establish their own spending and account balancing plan in RPM. Use ORP for the alternative.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by mrmr »

I've just started playing with this.

I don't see a place to enter info for an HSA, it doesn't come up in a search of this thread. How do people handle HSA's with this tool? I've got an HSA that I can't currently contribute to (I don't know if I will ever be able/want to contribute to it again). I plan to let it grow for the next 30-40 years and use it for the higher medical bills that are common with old age. So it will most likely be spent tax free. Should I ever have an HDHP in the future, I would likely contribute to it for the tax shelter.

It doesn't seem to fit neatly if added to either the rIRA or tIRA buckets, but I would not be surprised if I've overlooked something obvious.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

mrmr wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 pm I've just started playing with this.

I don't see a place to enter info for an HSA, it doesn't come up in a search of this thread. How do people handle HSA's with this tool? I've got an HSA that I can't currently contribute to (I don't know if I will ever be able/want to contribute to it again). I plan to let it grow for the next 30-40 years and use it for the higher medical bills that are common with old age. So it will most likely be spent tax free. Should I ever have an HDHP in the future, I would likely contribute to it for the tax shelter.

It doesn't seem to fit neatly if added to either the rIRA or tIRA buckets, but I would not be surprised if I've overlooked something obvious.
HSA are not a part of the RPM model and will likely never be as they're likely to be a minor element in a retiree's portfolio and assets, and an unnecessary model complication. I suggest using the inheritance section to account for a significant off-model asset that might be received in the future.
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Ajw43022
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Ajw43022 »

For wages earned prior to retirement, what's the best way to factor FICA into the tax rate paid?
Barsoom
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Barsoom »

Ajw43022 wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 9:22 pm For wages earned prior to retirement, what's the best way to factor FICA into the tax rate paid?
Maybe it's best to not treat it as a tax rate change, but just put the FICA payment into the expenses adjustment rows in the Details tab, if all you're looking for is cash flow impacts?

-B
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by duffyinvestor »

I'm sorry if this has already been answered but what should we put for spouse's age is already deceased and I am now single.
I'm only 44 so maybe I am breaking the model somehow! Thank you for this tool.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by BigFoot48 »

duffyinvestor wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:46 pm I'm sorry if this has already been answered but what should we put for spouse's age is already deceased and I am now single.
I'm only 44 so maybe I am breaking the model somehow! Thank you for this tool.
I suggest just considering yourself as a single and not use any of the married settings and options.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by LadyGeek »

duffyinvestor wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:46 pm I'm sorry if this has already been answered but what should we put for spouse's age is already deceased and I am now single.
I'm only 44 so maybe I am breaking the model somehow! Thank you for this tool.
I see from Qualifying widower status tax moves questions that your spouse died in 2020 (the same year as mine). 2021 is the first year you will be filing single. As BigFoot48 states, everything from this point on is to consider yourself single.

I'm only mentioning this in case other readers have a spouse which passed away in 2021. They would file MFJ for 2021 and the spreadsheet will contain a few errors which can be overlooked. I used the Retiree Portfolio Model in 2020 and ran into this situation (search this thread).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by duffyinvestor »

LadyGeek wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:34 pm
duffyinvestor wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:46 pm I'm sorry if this has already been answered but what should we put for spouse's age is already deceased and I am now single.
I'm only 44 so maybe I am breaking the model somehow! Thank you for this tool.
I see from Qualifying widower status tax moves questions that your spouse died in 2020 (the same year as mine). 2021 is the first year you will be filing single. As BigFoot48 states, everything from this point on is to consider yourself single.

I'm only mentioning this in case other readers have a spouse which passed away in 2021. They would file MFJ for 2021 and the spreadsheet will contain a few errors which can be overlooked. I used the Retiree Portfolio Model in 2020 and ran into this situation (search this thread).
I'm sorry for your loss. Yes, changing the filing status to single seemed to get rid of some of the errors and questions I had. Actually I'll file Head of Household after 2022 (my child turns 11 this year) for a few years but modeling retiring at 50 so will be close enough to count that as single for the purposes of an unknown future.
thor111
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by thor111 »

Overall this tool is great, and I don't have a lot of time working with it. Just thought I would point out a small bug (or perhaps it's just the dufus entering data into your spreadsheet):

I get a small error (11) that I assume is a result of rounding when using the stretch version of an inherited IRA.

future events Inheritances

Include in portfolio? y
Cash 0
Inherited IRAs 11,289
Age when event occurs 61
Stretch or Ten Year distribution period s

Then in the results section it says I have an ending balance of (11), with an error of (11).

Suggestions?

Thanks again for supplying such a great tool.
Last edited by thor111 on Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Escapevelocity
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Escapevelocity »

8-) k
BigFoot48 wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:04 am
mrmr wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 pm I've just started playing with this.

I don't see a place to enter info for an HSA, it doesn't come up in a search of this thread. How do people handle HSA's with this tool? I've got an HSA that I can't currently contribute to (I don't know if I will ever be able/want to contribute to it again). I plan to let it grow for the next 30-40 years and use it for the higher medical bills that are common with old age. So it will most likely be spent tax free. Should I ever have an HDHP in the future, I would likely contribute to it for the tax shelter.

It doesn't seem to fit neatly if added to either the rIRA or tIRA buckets, but I would not be surprised if I've overlooked something obvious.
HSA are not a part of the RPM model and will likely never be as they're likely to be a minor element in a retiree's portfolio and assets, and an unnecessary model complication. I suggest using the inheritance section to account for a significant off-model asset that might be received in the future.
I include HSA in my Roth IRA in the model. It has the same basic attribute of tax free withdrawals.
URSnshn
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by URSnshn »

Thank you BigFoot48 for this spreadsheet! I'm looking forward to trying it out with my FIL on his projections! However I am confused as to which link I should use, as the year is not present on the various versions on the initial post. What is the current version and which link should I use? EDIT: I believe I have the latest version now: 21.1a.
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

I'm not sure if this should be a separate thread or here. I started my question on a separate thread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=350933&sid=117acac0 ... 9640d95bc7 which led to a question that I think may be better placed here, so below is that new question. Initial question was
I'm working with RPM and trying to understand the results I'm seeing, since I have to decide what my Roth conversion strategy is going to be for the next 8-9 years. I'm 63, widowed with SS survivors benefits until I take my own at age 70, and the bulk of my assets are in tax deferred, with a total portfolio allocation of 30/70 (really more like 35/65, but I typed in 30/70 to RPM to get the results below). Thankfully every tool I've used says I'm in good shape cash flow wise.

The metrics I'm looking at are portfolio at end of life, which I'm setting at 100 due to longevity in my family, total federal tax paid, and amount/duration of IRMAA surcharges. To make it simple, I set the AA in all accounts to 30/70. The 2 main models I'm testing are filling the 22% bracket vs an even conversion amount of about $58K . I don't understand the results I'm seeing.

Model #1, filling the 22% bracket until 72, leaves an end of life portfolio of $38K, with total fed taxes paid of $412K, and total IRMAA paid of $47500 over 19 years. Model #2 of $58K conversions yearly until 72 leaves an end of life portfolio of $61K, total fed taxes paid of $443K and IRMAA of $30200 over 10 years. In both cases, by my early to mid 80's I stop paying taxes, because there are no more RMDs.

So model #1 I pay $30K less tax, but $17K more IRMAA over a longer period, but end up with less money, than model #2. Is it likely just the timing of things? The difference end of life isn't that much, either. Without entering into a political discussion, in general am I better of paying less tax but more IRMAA, or vice versa. Again, all of that stops in mid-80's regardless.

Also, it's interesting to note that if I do no Roth conversions, my final portfolio is about the same as Model #1, but I would have paid $611K in fed tax, and $39000 IRMAA over 6 years. $200K difference in fed tax, paid later, portfolio looking the same at end of life based on my assumptions.
********

At this moment, in my life and in the RPM model, my taxable AA is 15/66/19 stock/bonds/MM and my tax deferred is 43/57/0, for an overall AA of 34/60/6. I'm very happy with that overall. In RPM, I put 35/60/5 for tax deferred and Roth AA, since that will be my overall, and left my taxable AA as described above. I don't know how else to model it, since every year the 2 types of account will be somewhat different if I'm trying to keep an overall 35/65 AA. I wonder if I should post this on the long RPM thread, or is that thread more for technical program issues.

So I guess this is now my main question, is how to do my model to compare a general Roth plan of either steady $58K or maxing 22% for the next 8-9 years?

Starting to feel confused again, so going to step away for a bit, and let my brain catch up. It helps to think out loud here. Thank you.
Age 63, life turned upside down 3/2/19, thanking God for what I've learned from this group
RyeBourbon
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by RyeBourbon »

DebiT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:12 pm I'm not sure if this should be a separate thread or here. I started my question on a separate thread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=350933&sid=117acac0 ... 9640d95bc7 which led to a question that I think may be better placed here, so below is that new question. Initial question was
I'm working with RPM and trying to understand the results I'm seeing, since I have to decide what my Roth conversion strategy is going to be for the next 8-9 years. I'm 63, widowed with SS survivors benefits until I take my own at age 70, and the bulk of my assets are in tax deferred, with a total portfolio allocation of 30/70 (really more like 35/65, but I typed in 30/70 to RPM to get the results below). Thankfully every tool I've used says I'm in good shape cash flow wise.

The metrics I'm looking at are portfolio at end of life, which I'm setting at 100 due to longevity in my family, total federal tax paid, and amount/duration of IRMAA surcharges. To make it simple, I set the AA in all accounts to 30/70. The 2 main models I'm testing are filling the 22% bracket vs an even conversion amount of about $58K . I don't understand the results I'm seeing.

Model #1, filling the 22% bracket until 72, leaves an end of life portfolio of $38K, with total fed taxes paid of $412K, and total IRMAA paid of $47500 over 19 years. Model #2 of $58K conversions yearly until 72 leaves an end of life portfolio of $61K, total fed taxes paid of $443K and IRMAA of $30200 over 10 years. In both cases, by my early to mid 80's I stop paying taxes, because there are no more RMDs.

So model #1 I pay $30K less tax, but $17K more IRMAA over a longer period, but end up with less money, than model #2. Is it likely just the timing of things? The difference end of life isn't that much, either. Without entering into a political discussion, in general am I better of paying less tax but more IRMAA, or vice versa. Again, all of that stops in mid-80's regardless.

Also, it's interesting to note that if I do no Roth conversions, my final portfolio is about the same as Model #1, but I would have paid $611K in fed tax, and $39000 IRMAA over 6 years. $200K difference in fed tax, paid later, portfolio looking the same at end of life based on my assumptions.
********

At this moment, in my life and in the RPM model, my taxable AA is 15/66/19 stock/bonds/MM and my tax deferred is 43/57/0, for an overall AA of 34/60/6. I'm very happy with that overall. In RPM, I put 35/60/5 for tax deferred and Roth AA, since that will be my overall, and left my taxable AA as described above. I don't know how else to model it, since every year the 2 types of account will be somewhat different if I'm trying to keep an overall 35/65 AA. I wonder if I should post this on the long RPM thread, or is that thread more for technical program issues.

So I guess this is now my main question, is how to do my model to compare a general Roth plan of either steady $58K or maxing 22% for the next 8-9 years?

Starting to feel confused again, so going to step away for a bit, and let my brain catch up. It helps to think out loud here. Thank you.
Do each of these models provide the exact same withdrawal sequence? What you should be looking at is spendable $ not taxes paid.
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

By withdrawal sequence do you mean the order of accounts? I will check and verify.

By spendable $ I assume the best metric is the ending portfolio value, correct?
Age 63, life turned upside down 3/2/19, thanking God for what I've learned from this group
Escapevelocity
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Escapevelocity »

DebiT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:12 pm
At this moment, in my life and in the RPM model, my taxable AA is 15/66/19 stock/bonds/MM and my tax deferred is 43/57/0, for an overall AA of 34/60/6. I'm very happy with that overall. In RPM, I put 35/60/5 for tax deferred and Roth AA, since that will be my overall, and left my taxable AA as described above. I don't know how else to model it, since every year the 2 types of account will be somewhat different if I'm trying to keep an overall 35/65 AA. I wonder if I should post this on the long RPM thread, or is that thread more for technical program issues.

So I guess this is now my main question, is how to do my model to compare a general Roth plan of either steady $58K or maxing 22% for the next 8-9 years?

Starting to feel confused again, so going to step away for a bit, and let my brain catch up. It helps to think out loud here. Thank you.
In the Setup tab, in section 10, set method to use to 'e" (entered). Then you can manually enter the yearly roth conversions and evaluate the results as you tinker. Over to the right of that section where you make the entries, it will show you the percentage of each tax bracket that you have filled up. So you can put in the annual amount that will bring the 22% column to 100% each year for that scenario. Then you can put in the flat 58k as another scenario.
DebiT
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by DebiT »

That's what I've been doing, but also trying to look at the asset allocations in my 3 types of accounts. I've read that RPM will be sensitive to this, so I think it is impacting my results greatly.

This may sound like a crazy question, but does the developer, or anyone here with technical knowledge, ever sell consult time using screenshare? It occurs to me that this would be a great way to really see what the variables are, without getting so confused.

It sure does help with other tech support. I'm going to pause for a while, possibly until tomorrow, and chew on some of this. Thanks so far!
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by LadyGeek »

DebiT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:12 pm This may sound like a crazy question, but does the developer, or anyone here with technical knowledge, ever sell consult time using screenshare? It occurs to me that this would be a great way to really see what the variables are, without getting so confused.
Sorry, that won't happen. Everything here is done on a volunteer effort. If anyone is thinking of doing otherwise, please see No Solicitation and note the previous section titled "Serious violation".

If there are any questions on this, please PM me.
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by RyeBourbon »

DebiT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:55 pm By withdrawal sequence do you mean the order of accounts? I will check and verify.

By spendable $ I assume the best metric is the ending portfolio value, correct?
No, I mean the models project you withdrawing $X each year (to spend after tax). That's what counts.

Do both models allow you the same spending money?
Exchme
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Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Post by Exchme »

The taxes on the Roth conversions are coming from the taxable account, which is mostly bonds. So you are ending up with more stocks after a Roth conversion than before and the program is liking that and so wants to do more conversions.

You need to keep the allocations in all accounts the same to prevent this.
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