cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

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Silk McCue
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Silk McCue »

lauren_knows wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
My preference would be to not overload those 4 items onto one selection for aesthetics/clarity as it may throw some folks. Even with the 2 pairs that under the covers do the same thing it may be easier for the causal user to wrap their minds around it that way.

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palaheel
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by palaheel »

lauren_knows wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
What happens if one doesn't enter an end date?
Nothing to say, really.
Silk McCue
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Silk McCue »

palaheel wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:24 pm
lauren_knows wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
What happens if one doesn't enter an end date?
It doesn’t end.

Cheers
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Padlin
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Padlin »

As long as you can select to adjust with inflation, or not, I have no issue with combining.
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snowman
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by snowman »

lauren_knows wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
Personally, I find "Income/Savings" the most confusing. It took me a while to figure it out. Income means constant stream of money, savings means assets sitting in the bank account. Since we are focusing on income stream, I would drop the word savings. I would combine it with pension/annuity in a single field, and maybe call it "Additional Income (like Pension, Annuity, etc.)". Since there are only 2 categories - income and expenses - having 3 or 4 fields is just confusing. All I want to know is am I adding or substracting income?

I would also replace Spending with Expenses, or Other Expenses, or Additional Expenses. But that's just me, it probably doesn't matter.

Thanks for asking questions, Lauren!
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lauren_knows
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

snowman wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:20 pm
lauren_knows wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
Personally, I find "Income/Savings" the most confusing. It took me a while to figure it out. Income means constant stream of money, savings means assets sitting in the bank account. Since we are focusing on income stream, I would drop the word savings. I would combine it with pension/annuity in a single field, and maybe call it "Additional Income (like Pension, Annuity, etc.)". Since there are only 2 categories - income and expenses - having 3 or 4 fields is just confusing. All I want to know is am I adding or substracting income?

I would also replace Spending with Expenses, or Other Expenses, or Additional Expenses. But that's just me, it probably doesn't matter.

Thanks for asking questions, Lauren!
Hmm, I see what you mean with the word "savings". But for pre-retirement contributions, would a better phrase be "investment contributions"? Because those kind of Adjustments go straight to the theoretical portfolio (or to counteract spending).

Spending/Expenses is a good word switch.

Naming definitely matters. It matters for readability of code, but also how users perceive a UI. I know that I won't be able to make it perfectly easy for everyone, even with a tutorial, but it can't hurt to ruminate on the wording.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
chipaway
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by chipaway »

Lauren,

I just checked out the new improved version. It's great! Thanks for allowing Social Security to be entered as a monthly amount.

I noticed something and don't know if it's supposed to work the way it does. When the toggle labeled "Maximum Initial Yearly Spending For 100% Success" is turned on the output dollar amount changes depending on the percentage selected in the "minimum success rate" box below it.

Speaking of the minimum success rate, if one accidentally selects a rate that's greater than 100% it appears that the program goes into an endless loop.

Thanks again for making such a great tool and for being so responsive to suggestions for improvements.
Marseille07
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Marseille07 »

Like the above poster, I think there's an infinite loop bug somewhere.

From the default set of options, change Initial Yearly Spending to $0 and hit Run, it keeps spinning and doesn't seem to return. Now, one could argue that's an invalid input; in which case maybe throwing an error might help.
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lauren_knows
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

chipaway wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:41 am Lauren,

I just checked out the new improved version. It's great! Thanks for allowing Social Security to be entered as a monthly amount.

I noticed something and don't know if it's supposed to work the way it does. When the toggle labeled "Maximum Initial Yearly Spending For 100% Success" is turned on the output dollar amount changes depending on the percentage selected in the "minimum success rate" box below it.

Speaking of the minimum success rate, if one accidentally selects a rate that's greater than 100% it appears that the program goes into an endless loop.

Thanks again for making such a great tool and for being so responsive to suggestions for improvements.
Marseille07 wrote: Like the above poster, I think there's an infinite loop bug somewhere.

From the default set of options, change Initial Yearly Spending to $0 and hit Run, it keeps spinning and doesn't seem to return. Now, one could argue that's an invalid input; in which case maybe throwing an error might help.
You guys are ruthless testers. Fixed those two validation bugs. When putting $0 in for spending, it does show some blank numbers on the output page (instead of 0's), but I'll have to look deeper into that :) 8-)

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
leftcoaster
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by leftcoaster »

lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:54 am
chipaway wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:41 am Lauren,

I just checked out the new improved version. It's great! Thanks for allowing Social Security to be entered as a monthly amount.

I noticed something and don't know if it's supposed to work the way it does. When the toggle labeled "Maximum Initial Yearly Spending For 100% Success" is turned on the output dollar amount changes depending on the percentage selected in the "minimum success rate" box below it.

Speaking of the minimum success rate, if one accidentally selects a rate that's greater than 100% it appears that the program goes into an endless loop.

Thanks again for making such a great tool and for being so responsive to suggestions for improvements.
Marseille07 wrote: Like the above poster, I think there's an infinite loop bug somewhere.

From the default set of options, change Initial Yearly Spending to $0 and hit Run, it keeps spinning and doesn't seem to return. Now, one could argue that's an invalid input; in which case maybe throwing an error might help.
You guys are ruthless testers. Fixed those two validation bugs. When putting $0 in for spending, it does show some blank numbers on the output page (instead of 0's), but I'll have to look deeper into that :) 8-)

-Lauren
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc.

At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in investible assets, can't you include it (and it's rough asset mix) in your overall portfolio? I might be missing some of the nuances here.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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Harry Livermore
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Harry Livermore »

leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
leftcoaster,
Couldn't you use the adjustment feature to make a "best guess' at what each years' payout would be? Add it as one of the adjustments, dividing the current value by 10, and choose "income" from the pulldown. You could put in a start and end date, un-check "freeze until withdrawal" and put in your own "inflation" number which would represent your best guess at returns.
Would that be at least ballpark-accurate?
Cheers
chazas
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by chazas »

Super fun to play with, and much easier than Firecalc. Thanks for this.
Marseille07
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Marseille07 »

lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:54 am
chipaway wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:41 am Lauren,

I just checked out the new improved version. It's great! Thanks for allowing Social Security to be entered as a monthly amount.

I noticed something and don't know if it's supposed to work the way it does. When the toggle labeled "Maximum Initial Yearly Spending For 100% Success" is turned on the output dollar amount changes depending on the percentage selected in the "minimum success rate" box below it.

Speaking of the minimum success rate, if one accidentally selects a rate that's greater than 100% it appears that the program goes into an endless loop.

Thanks again for making such a great tool and for being so responsive to suggestions for improvements.
Marseille07 wrote: Like the above poster, I think there's an infinite loop bug somewhere.

From the default set of options, change Initial Yearly Spending to $0 and hit Run, it keeps spinning and doesn't seem to return. Now, one could argue that's an invalid input; in which case maybe throwing an error might help.
You guys are ruthless testers. Fixed those two validation bugs. When putting $0 in for spending, it does show some blank numbers on the output page (instead of 0's), but I'll have to look deeper into that :) 8-)

-Lauren
Thank you for fixing very quickly!
leftcoaster
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by leftcoaster »

lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:17 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc.

At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in investible assets, can't you include it (and it's rough asset mix) in your overall portfolio? I might be missing some of the nuances here.

-Lauren
Think of it as an extra 401(k) that pays out over a specific period of time, such as 5 or 10 years. So, you might have a 30/70 allocation in that and elect to receive a payment every year for 10 years. The amount that hasn't been paid yet continues to be invested at whatever return the 30/70 allocation delivers and the annual payouts would reflect that.

This can all happen prior to any "main portfolio" drawdown, for which a different AA might be in place.
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lauren_knows
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:37 am
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:17 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc.

At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in investible assets, can't you include it (and it's rough asset mix) in your overall portfolio? I might be missing some of the nuances here.

-Lauren
Think of it as an extra 401(k) that pays out over a specific period of time, such as 5 or 10 years. So, you might have a 30/70 allocation in that and elect to receive a payment every year for 10 years. The amount that hasn't been paid yet continues to be invested at whatever return the 30/70 allocation delivers and the annual payouts would reflect that.

This can all happen prior to any "main portfolio" drawdown, for which a different AA might be in place.
Yeah, this starts to venture into the territory of drawing from individual accounts at different times, with different allocations, and different tax implications. I haven't done that on this tool, but it is a thing I'm looking at doing.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
leftcoaster
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by leftcoaster »

lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:48 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:37 am
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:17 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc.

At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in investible assets, can't you include it (and it's rough asset mix) in your overall portfolio? I might be missing some of the nuances here.

-Lauren
Think of it as an extra 401(k) that pays out over a specific period of time, such as 5 or 10 years. So, you might have a 30/70 allocation in that and elect to receive a payment every year for 10 years. The amount that hasn't been paid yet continues to be invested at whatever return the 30/70 allocation delivers and the annual payouts would reflect that.

This can all happen prior to any "main portfolio" drawdown, for which a different AA might be in place.
Yeah, this starts to venture into the territory of drawing from individual accounts at different times, with different allocations, and different tax implications. I haven't done that on this tool, but it is a thing I'm looking at doing.

-Lauren
OK - so in the meantime, I could run two separate simulations and overlay them on my end. Am I correct that the percent of portfolio spending plan would, if set to 10%, tell me what the annual draws are for each of the 10 years?
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:50 am
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:48 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:37 am
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:17 am
leftcoaster wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:35 am
Lauren,

First: thank you!

I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable?
I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc.

At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in investible assets, can't you include it (and it's rough asset mix) in your overall portfolio? I might be missing some of the nuances here.

-Lauren
Think of it as an extra 401(k) that pays out over a specific period of time, such as 5 or 10 years. So, you might have a 30/70 allocation in that and elect to receive a payment every year for 10 years. The amount that hasn't been paid yet continues to be invested at whatever return the 30/70 allocation delivers and the annual payouts would reflect that.

This can all happen prior to any "main portfolio" drawdown, for which a different AA might be in place.
Yeah, this starts to venture into the territory of drawing from individual accounts at different times, with different allocations, and different tax implications. I haven't done that on this tool, but it is a thing I'm looking at doing.

-Lauren
OK - so in the meantime, I could run two separate simulations and overlay them on my end. Am I correct that the percent of portfolio spending plan would, if set to 10%, tell me what the annual draws are for each of the 10 years?
Not exactly, the way you describe it. It means that it will draw 10% of the current portfolio, each year, including market gains and losses. Portfolio is 500k in year 5? 50k withdrawal. Drops to 300k next year? 30k withdrawal. Etc.
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
nigel_ht
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by nigel_ht »

Is it too early to vote for cFireSim as best updated FIRE resource of 2021?

Hmmm...maybe I should ask for some more features first...

Actually, there is a feature I would like but need to think about how it would work more...
Marseille07
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Marseille07 »

cFIREsim was my favorite tool even before the revision. I was using Alistair's version before the update. Now it's even better, of course.
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rgs92
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by rgs92 »

OP here. Just a thought. I know people keep asking for extra features, but, like the Google home page, the value is in its clean simplicity.
So maybe it owes its appeal and value to the fact that it strikes the perfect balance of clarity and versatility.
Adding much more might make it unwieldy and intimidating.

And the importance of cFIREsim is that it can help the largest number of people because it is so understandable, but also does not oversimplify things.
It take all the key facts into account, and presents all the highly useful results clearly. There is nothing really extraneous in the inputs or output.
There are already other tools out there for those who want the ultimate flexibility in designing complex scenarios and generating voluminous results.

I think it would be unfortunate if it got to a point with so many enhancements where people were longing for "classic cFIREsim."
It's a classic right now; a role model of sorts for software design and usability. (Like something that belongs in the Smithsonian, it has artistic value.)
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Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

rgs92 wrote: Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:43 pm OP here. Just a thought. I know people keep asking for extra features, but, like the Google home page, the value is in its clean simplicity.
So maybe it owes its appeal and value to the fact that it strikes the perfect balance of clarity and versatility.
Adding much more might make it unwieldy and intimidating.

And the importance of cFIREsim is that it can help the largest number of people because it is so understandable, but also does not oversimplify things.
It take all the key facts into account, and presents all the highly useful results clearly. There is nothing really extraneous in the inputs or output.
There are already other tools out there for those who want the ultimate flexibility in designing complex scenarios and generating voluminous results.

I think it would be unfortunate if it got to a point with so many enhancements where people were longing for "classic cFIREsim."
It's a classic right now; a role model of sorts for software design and usability. (Like something that belongs in the Smithsonian, it has artistic value.)
All great points. And I definitely don't intend to muck up the inputs too bad, but I'm all for quality of life improvements.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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rgs92
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by rgs92 »

Thank you Lauren, that's good to know. All the best to you.
Lock
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Lock »

Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much!

Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain!

Again - thanks so much.
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by snowman »

This is probably stupid question, but I'll ask anyway: all the calculations assume US stock market, correct? And the bonds are 10 year treasuries?

So if I am 60/40 US/International stocks, and total bond fund, then the results are not exactly the same, but close enough for long term planning?

Thanks.
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

Lock wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:46 pm Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much!

Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain!

Again - thanks so much.
You're spot on. It's the GS10 Long Interest Rate from historical data.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

snowman wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:21 pm This is probably stupid question, but I'll ask anyway: all the calculations assume US stock market, correct? And the bonds are 10 year treasuries?

So if I am 60/40 US/International stocks, and total bond fund, then the results are not exactly the same, but close enough for long term planning?

Thanks.
The bonds are GS10 Long Interest Rate bonds. Not sure if that's really close to international stocks. I'm looking to add some datasets in the near future, but definitely having issues. I might pick up the data from the Simba spreadsheet, but that's only from 1927 on.

I'm also partially done with a "monte carlo" option that lets you define your own assets (by giving a rate of return and a volatility number), then it gives a random normal distribution of returns based on that. So you can define an international sleeve for your portfolio based on whatever numbers you want.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
Lock
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Lock »

lauren_knows wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:22 pm
Lock wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:46 pm Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much!

Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain!

Again - thanks so much.
You're spot on. It's the GS10 Long Interest Rate from historical data.

-Lauren
Awesome - thanks for getting back to me!

Last question, when I input cash for the portfolio does this imply the three month treasury rate or is cash adjusted by solely the growth of cash rate?

The reason this is interesting to me is levered portfolios on the efficient frontier use negative cash and I was wondering if the borrowing costs would be historical or just user adjusted according to the growth of cash input.

The ability to add negative cash into cfiresim is quite possibly my favorite feature!
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

Lock wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:45 pm
lauren_knows wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:22 pm
Lock wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:46 pm Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much!

Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain!

Again - thanks so much.
You're spot on. It's the GS10 Long Interest Rate from historical data.

-Lauren
Awesome - thanks for getting back to me!

Last question, when I input cash for the portfolio does this imply the three month treasury rate or is cash adjusted by solely the growth of cash rate?

The reason this is interesting to me is levered portfolios on the efficient frontier use negative cash and I was wondering if the borrowing costs would be historical or just user adjusted according to the growth of cash input.

The ability to add negative cash into cfiresim is quite possibly my favorite feature!
When I first set up cFIREsim, I never found a good data source for a cash rate, so I left it upon users to input the flat cash growth rate on their own.

-Lauren
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
Iorek
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Iorek »

Just wanted to thank you again for all the info and updates! (and I did squash my impulse to ask about other asset classes because I think the current ease/simplicity of use is so fantastic :) ) :sharebeer
FamilyGuy87
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by FamilyGuy87 »

I love tools like cFIREsim. It is extremely helpful to be able to try out different portfolio scenarios and get a feel for where you stand.

However, sometimes I like to take the visualization a bit further to help me compare different scenarios more easily. Here is the comparison between the default cFIREsim portfolio (75/25) and the same portfolio with 60/40 AA. I have created a gif to visualize the distribution of the portfolio over time.


Image

Regards,

Familyguy
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siamond
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by siamond »

lauren_knows wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:54 pmWhen I first set up cFIREsim, I never found a good data source for a cash rate, so I left it upon users to input the flat cash growth rate on their own.
Lauren, I can help you with this. In the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, there is a "Treasury Bills Index - Total Returns" data series which starts in 1871, with no ER adjustment. Data sources: Prof. Shiller ; FRED TB3MS.

Download the spreadsheet (v20b), go to the Raw_Data tab, column NP.
lauren_knows wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:25 pm The bonds are GS10 Long Interest Rate bonds. [...] I'm looking to add some datasets in the near future, but definitely having issues. I might pick up the data from the Simba spreadsheet, but that's only from 1927 on.
The Long-Term Treasury (LTT) data series does start in 1871. Although it seems to me that you should use the Total-Bonds (TBM) series instead. We would need to do some adjustments to avoid the ER adjustment though. Contact me by e-mail for this or other data source questions, please.
Last edited by siamond on Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
nigel_ht
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by nigel_ht »

FamilyGuy87 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:54 am I love tools like cFIREsim. It is extremely helpful to be able to try out different portfolio scenarios and get a feel for where you stand.

However, sometimes I like to take the visualization a bit further to help me compare different scenarios more easily. Here is the comparison between the default cFIREsim portfolio (75/25) and the same portfolio with 60/40 AA. I have created a gif to visualize the distribution of the portfolio over time.


Image

Regards,

Familyguy
That's nice. A slider control to allow you to scroll through a bar chart would work well. The data is all there.

Doesn't look like dyngraphs would work though but Chart.js probably would.

Hmmm...I would second the desire to have a couple different AAs for a direct comparison.
FamilyGuy87
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by FamilyGuy87 »

I agree, this is a lot more useful with a slider. It is very helpful as you are fine-tuning your portfolio.

FamilyGuy
congruentsea
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by congruentsea »

Thanks Lauren, just stumbled on cFIREsim and find it to be an intuitive tool.
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Orange_Philosophy »

Just a curiosity... The cycles each have a starting point that I assume is Jan 1 of that year. How would the simulations change, if at all, if it was calculated with start points more than once per year? Every 6 months? Once a quarter? If there are periods of a wild roller coaster would it make any difference in the long-term outcome?
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by HoosierJim »

Reminder..... This Thursday 4/15/2021. The developer of the product cfiresim has graciously agreed to demonstrate the product and participate in a Q & A session on Thursday April 15th at 7 pm Central time. Great way to get any of your questions answered.

You can try out the product here https://www.cfiresim.com/


Thursday April 15 at
5 pm Pacific
6 pm Mountain
7 pm Central
8 pm Eastern


The zoom link is in the upcoming events here. in the 4/15 entry - note those times on the calendar are EASTERN - you can add it to your calendar (and it will correct for your time zone by clicking COPY TO MY CALENDAR

Image

If you would like to attend the Zoom meeting please contact me via email at chicagovirtualbogleheads@gmail.com or Private Message me with your EMAIL or join your local chapter (local chapter coordinators will be distributing the invitation)

You can find the local chapters here.

You can also find a calendar of upcoming events here.
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Padlin
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Padlin »

Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
Regards | Bob
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Marseille07 »

Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
Unless I'm mistaken, it splits your retirement horizon into 4 chunks so you can compare withdrawals between chunks. If 50 years, each quarter would be 12 or 13 years.
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
If your retirement period is 32 years, each "quarter" is 8 years. So, the average spending in the first 8 years, 2nd 8 years, etc. This is only particularly relevant if using variable spending methods.
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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Padlin
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by Padlin »

Thanks folks
Regards | Bob
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by euphonious »

HoosierJim wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:11 am Reminder..... This Thursday 4/15/2021. The developer of the product cfiresim has graciously agreed to demonstrate the product and participate in a Q & A session on Thursday April 15th at 7 pm Central time. Great way to get any of your questions answered.
Is a vod of the meeting available for download/viewing anywhere? Or if not, are there any good video tutorials out there? Thanks.
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by mtmingus »

lauren_knows wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 7:09 pm
Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
If your retirement period is 32 years, each "quarter" is 8 years. So, the average spending in the first 8 years, 2nd 8 years, etc. This is only particularly relevant if using variable spending methods.
I tried two simulations:
1) initial 82k with Spending Plan = Inflation Adjusted (CPI) (82k the max with 100% success)
2) initial 82k with Spending Plan = VPW
the 2nd simulation shows much higher medium spending in each of the 4 quarters.

Thanks Lauren!
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lauren_knows
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Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Post by lauren_knows »

mtmingus wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:55 pm
lauren_knows wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 7:09 pm
Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
If your retirement period is 32 years, each "quarter" is 8 years. So, the average spending in the first 8 years, 2nd 8 years, etc. This is only particularly relevant if using variable spending methods.
I tried two simulations:
1) initial 82k with Spending Plan = Inflation Adjusted (CPI) (82k the max with 100% success)
2) initial 82k with Spending Plan = VPW
the 2nd simulation shows much higher medium spending in each of the 4 quarters.

Thanks Lauren!
Well, that makes sense. VPW is a spending plan designed to spend down your portfolio before death.
39 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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