Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:36 am
A Bloomberg headline today says, "Roubini Warns U.S. Yields Above 2% Will Bite Amid Excess Risk". LOL, Roubini. Dr. Doom. I remember the thread from last year, "This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]".
I don't know whether to respond here or in your linked thread, but you posted here, so...
Roubini gets accused of being a broken record, but his analysis goes into far more detail than "predicting depression". He's one of very few economists who showed concern, as early as 2006 to 2008, about subprime lending and a housing-led financial crisis (Jul. 2015 article
Regarding the article referenced in your link (Apr. 2020 article
), I'm not seeing where he's been disproven in the details of what's happening ("even if the Greater Recession leads to a lacklustre U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped 'Greater Depression' will follow later in this decade, owing to 10 ominous and risky trends").
Someone in your thread said that Roubini contradicts himself by predicting deflation and inflation. Not so. The prediction is that the Fed will first fight deflation, and then later, their actions along with other things will lead to stagflation. Arguably, the continuation of ZIRP/QE is like keeping the patient in the ICU. This economy still can't stand on its own two feet. So far, Roubini's script is playing out.
I have no idea what this means for the markets and personal finance, but for the economy, while I don't claim that Roubini must be right in every detail, I'm not seeing much in the way of solid evidence against Roubini's overall thesis as presented in the Apr. 2020 article.