U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:02 am We’re almost half way to 4100.

Just 14 points to go.
We have to work harder on encouraging those with "cash on the sidelines" to invest in the market. Someone should create a post like, "Today is a good day to invest in the US market, and here is why."

Here's a reason, the S&P 500 Excess CAPE Yield. It's not looking bad at all! link
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:18 am
Stinky wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:02 am We’re almost half way to 4100.

Just 14 points to go.
We have to work harder on encouraging those with "cash on the sidelines" to invest in the market. Someone should create a post like, "Today is a good day to invest in the US market, and here is why."

Here's a reason, the S&P 500 Excess CAPE Yield. It's not looking bad at all! link
They'll chart anything these days.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:18 am
Stinky wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:02 am We’re almost half way to 4100.

Just 14 points to go.
We have to work harder on encouraging those with "cash on the sidelines" to invest in the market. Someone should create a post like, "Today is a good day to invest in the US market, and here is why."

Here's a reason, the S&P 500 Excess CAPE Yield. It's not looking bad at all! link
Or the cash gets deployed into the economy which will bring record profit. Companies will buyback shares.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:08 am Post this here for my own record.
About to turn 46. Will quit work at 55 or S&P 8000 (copying Homerj a little), whichever is first. :happy
10YR breakeven inflation is 2.36%, which gets you to S&P 5000 in 9 years alone.

8000 in 9 years is 7.8%, nominal, CAGR.

Backing out inflation that gets to 5.34% real return in 10 YRS.

At current valuations, I think that's going to be a close call as to which you hit first. ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

doh! no more soaring.
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:47 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:08 am Post this here for my own record.
About to turn 46. Will quit work at 55 or S&P 8000 (copying Homerj a little), whichever is first. :happy
10YR breakeven inflation is 2.36%, which gets you to S&P 5000 in 9 years alone.

8000 in 9 years is 7.8%, nominal, CAGR.

Backing out inflation that gets to 5.34% real return in 10 YRS.

At current valuations, I think that's going to be a close call as to which you hit first. ;)
Add dividends and it's probably more like a total return of 9.5% nominal and 7% real. I would be very happy to get those returns over the next decade.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:59 pm Add dividends and it's probably more like a total return of 9.5% nominal and 7% real. I would be very happy to get those returns over the next decade.
Tops down to hit a completely arbitrary SP 8000 goal, it would include dividends already, at least if we're counting the funds people actually invest in.

Bottoms up, Vanguard 2021 10 YR outlook for US breaks down as:

Valuation expansion: -2.1%
Earnings growth: 5%
Dividend yield: 1.8%

Total: 4.7%

Add in current 10 YR breakeven inflation (2.36%) = 7.06% nominal

So either way, you're within a 60 bps spread between 4.7-5.3% real.

With inflation, 7-8% nominal.

So not an audacious goal or nutty goal over 9 year timeframe... ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:26 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:59 pm Add dividends and it's probably more like a total return of 9.5% nominal and 7% real. I would be very happy to get those returns over the next decade.
Tops down to hit a completely arbitrary SP 8000 goal, it would include dividends already, at least if we're counting the funds people actually invest in.

Bottoms up, Vanguard 2021 10 YR outlook for US breaks down as:

Valuation expansion: -2.1%
Earnings growth: 5%
Dividend yield: 1.8%

Total: 4.7%

Add in current 10 YR breakeven inflation (2.36%) = 7.06% nominal

So either way, you're within a 60 bps spread between 4.7-5.3% real.

With inflation, 7-8% nominal.

So not an audacious goal over 9 year timeframe... ;)
I'm just talking about the literal S&P 500 price index, not any specific funds. If that hits 8000, it's 7.8% a year, but that number excludes dividends.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm just talking about the literal S&P 500 price index, not any specific funds. If that hits 8000, it's 7.8% a year, but that number excludes dividends.
That's more of a stretch, then.
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm just talking about the literal S&P 500 price index, not any specific funds. If that hits 8000, it's 7.8% a year, but that number excludes dividends.
That's more of a stretch, then.
Wow, only 4.7% nominal, so they're predicting real returns at 3% or less over a decade. Yikes.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:56 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm just talking about the literal S&P 500 price index, not any specific funds. If that hits 8000, it's 7.8% a year, but that number excludes dividends.
That's more of a stretch, then.
Wow, only 4.7% nominal, so they're predicting real returns at 3% or less over a decade. Yikes.
They're more optimistic about international, but this is a US stock thread. ;)
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j0e0r7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by j0e0r7 »

mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:48 pm
j0e0r7 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:26 am
mrspock wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:07 am
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:54 am Seeing the market continue to rise certainly feels good, but I cannot help but wonder how much of the gains we're seeing now are due to the market's expectation of coming inflation, which, if so, means that some of these may be phantom gains.

If I held a significant portion of my portfolio in nominal bonds right now, I would be downright scared.
I think a lot of this is inflation which we can’t really “book” just yet. One more reason folks adjust their AA’s right now at their own peril. Even with the market being at all time highs... less risk might be the last thing you want. If this inflation materializes, you’d be getting beat up both from rising yields and inflation.
If the market is expecting inflation, why are bond yields so low?
Because it’s not at all clear if bond yields are good predictors of inflation.

A good article noting the failures over the last 70 years: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-eco ... -inflation
Overall, there is no evidence to suggest that bond markets are good predictors of inflation.
In fact, if I was writing the software for our little universe simulation.... I’d almost certainly make a period of time where ironically the safest assets ended up being the worst thing you could own. Life has a way of making fools of us all.

As such... I’m just going to stomach the equity volatility @ 75/25. I get way more anxiety from bonds these days than I ever have from equities (damage of bond black swans takes way longer to repair?), but maybe I’m just wired differently.
Thanks for that link. From that it looks like bond yields move with current, but not future, inflation. That makes me think that maybe future inflation/deflation levels are essentially impossible to predict.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MishkaWorries »

MishkaWorries wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:42 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:37 pm
MishkaWorries wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:33 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:21 pm
MishkaWorries wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:19 pm

I backed the truck up on Friday!

I bought $400.00 of S&P 500 in my retirement account as part of my biweekly savings.
Market was closed Friday. Maybe they bought on Thursday.
Interesting point. I never bothered to look when they buy the stocks.
If you placed the orders on Friday then I don't see how they would've bought on Thursday. My guess is they executed today.
I just looked. My contributions posted on today.

Sorry guys but that means the top is in. The market always goes down when I buy stocks. :twisted:
Told ya :(
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

MishkaWorries wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:38 pm Told ya :(
I appreciate it. My 401k contribution will be invested today.
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
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OohLaLa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by OohLaLa »

rchmx1 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:02 pm Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
Do your citizen duty, and do the right thing! :P:
https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip

There is more than enough proof in this thread to put them away in minimum-security facilities, where they will spend the rest of their days playing tennis and watching reruns of Seinfeld!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:50 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:02 pm Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
Do your citizen duty, and do the right thing! :P:
https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip

There is more than enough proof in this thread to put them away in minimum-security facilities, where they will spend the rest of their days playing tennis and watching reruns of Seinfeld!

Just imagine how much your portfolio can grow if your COL SWR is covered by Club Fed!
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:50 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:02 pm Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
Do your citizen duty, and do the right thing! :P:
https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip

There is more than enough proof in this thread to put them away in minimum-security facilities, where they will spend the rest of their days playing tennis and watching reruns of Seinfeld!
I’ll just bring my framed photo of daddy JPOW to my hearing and they will let me walk — fist bumping JPOW on my way out the room.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:51 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:50 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:02 pm Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
Do your citizen duty, and do the right thing! :P:
https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip

There is more than enough proof in this thread to put them away in minimum-security facilities, where they will spend the rest of their days playing tennis and watching reruns of Seinfeld!

Just imagine how much your portfolio can grow if your COL SWR is covered by Club Fed!
Don't forget free health care and no way to tinker with your portfolio.
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:50 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:02 pm Bunch of market manipulators in this thread! :x
Do your citizen duty, and do the right thing! :P:
https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip

There is more than enough proof in this thread to put them away in minimum-security facilities, where they will spend the rest of their days playing tennis and watching reruns of Seinfeld!
Oooh that was a good laugh, thank you for that. :D
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:36 am A Bloomberg headline today says, "Roubini Warns U.S. Yields Above 2% Will Bite Amid Excess Risk". LOL, Roubini. Dr. Doom. I remember the thread from last year, "This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]".
link
I don't know whether to respond here or in your linked thread, but you posted here, so...

Roubini gets accused of being a broken record, but his analysis goes into far more detail than "predicting depression". He's one of very few economists who showed concern, as early as 2006 to 2008, about subprime lending and a housing-led financial crisis (Jul. 2015 article).

Regarding the article referenced in your link (Apr. 2020 article), I'm not seeing where he's been disproven in the details of what's happening ("even if the Greater Recession leads to a lacklustre U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped 'Greater Depression' will follow later in this decade, owing to 10 ominous and risky trends").

Someone in your thread said that Roubini contradicts himself by predicting deflation and inflation. Not so. The prediction is that the Fed will first fight deflation, and then later, their actions along with other things will lead to stagflation. Arguably, the continuation of ZIRP/QE is like keeping the patient in the ICU. This economy still can't stand on its own two feet. So far, Roubini's script is playing out.

I have no idea what this means for the markets and personal finance, but for the economy, while I don't claim that Roubini must be right in every detail, I'm not seeing much in the way of solid evidence against Roubini's overall thesis as presented in the Apr. 2020 article.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:36 am A Bloomberg headline today says, "Roubini Warns U.S. Yields Above 2% Will Bite Amid Excess Risk". LOL, Roubini. Dr. Doom. I remember the thread from last year, "This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]".
link
The link in that thread is a really good link. That's a good article. Age doesn't change what it has to say.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat »

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
For entertainment purposes only.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:14 pm ...I'm not seeing much in the way of solid evidence against Roubini's overall thesis as presented in the Apr. 2020 article.
See below.
Beensabu wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:48 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:36 am A Bloomberg headline today says, "Roubini Warns U.S. Yields Above 2% Will Bite Amid Excess Risk". LOL, Roubini. Dr. Doom. I remember the thread from last year, "This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]".
link
The link in that thread is a really good link. That's a good article. Age doesn't change what it has to say.
Looks like I jumped the gun on saying "LOL, Roubini". Appreciate both your replies.

Don't want to hijack this thread, so allow me to get it back on the rails. The market is currently soaring. Woohoo! There.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
You’re kidding, right?

After all, your tag line says “for entertainment purposes only”. :D
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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
That might have been a sensible thing to do. My only concern is the panic aspect, and acting out on it. If you ever panic again, my suggestion would be simply to check in with us before doing anything, even if you just give us an hour. There are a lot of smart people here ready and waiting to help you.
"I think we may see a return to full employment next year." -- Janet Yellen, March 23rd 2021
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
So you sold it out of one all time high and put it into another all time high? That's like selling a house now and buying another. That's nuts.
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Post by Triple digit golfer »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
Seems like you came out ahead doing so. You got lucky.
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Post by TheTimeLord »

Morpheus: “You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

Hoping to continue my journey as a red pill investor.
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CurlyDave
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Post by CurlyDave »

rockstar wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 am
AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
So you sold it out of one all time high and put it into another all time high? That's like selling a house now and buying another. That's nuts.
Except with houses, the round trip commission is 6% and other cost bring it up to around 10%. With stocks it can be as low as 0.
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Post by Scott S »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:44 am
AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
That might have been a sensible thing to do. My only concern is the panic aspect, and acting out on it. If you ever panic again, my suggestion would be simply to check in with us before doing anything, even if you just give us an hour. There are a lot of smart people here ready and waiting to help you.
+1. It wouldn't be a stretch to call this forum a "support group." Staying the course can be hard!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 am Morpheus: “You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

Hoping to continue my journey as a red pill investor.
Me too.

At this second, S&P is even, but the Curly Family Portfolio is up 0.42%. A rare day, but I am savoring it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:57 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 am
AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
So you sold it out of one all time high and put it into another all time high? That's like selling a house now and buying another. That's nuts.
Except with houses, the round trip commission is 6% and other cost bring it up to around 10%. With stocks it can be as low as 0.
True.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:57 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 am
AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
So you sold it out of one all time high and put it into another all time high? That's like selling a house now and buying another. That's nuts.
Except with houses, the round trip commission is 6% and other cost bring it up to around 10%. With stocks it can be as low as 0.
This right here is one of the things I love about rental properties. It's a pretty serious check valve against selling. I just updated my spreadsheet, and my RE equity is 3.05x my securities value, but liquidating the RE would evaporate a quarter of that equity between selling costs and capital gains tax (not to mention depreciation recapture).

But I'm OK being back in Wellesley. It was my happy place for two years, and I should have never left. Now I just need to figure out how this impacts my recently stated plan to increase equities to 50%. Maybe I just put that AA adjustment on hold for now and chill out for a bit (not because of US stock in soar mode, but just for behavioral reasons).
For entertainment purposes only.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:52 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:57 am
...Except with houses, the round trip commission is 6% and other cost bring it up to around 10%. With stocks it can be as low as 0.
This right here is one of the things I love about rental properties. It's a pretty serious check valve against selling. I just updated my spreadsheet, and my RE equity is 3.05x my securities value, but liquidating the RE would evaporate a quarter of that equity between selling costs and capital gains tax (not to mention depreciation recapture)...
I am pretty much in agreement on that virtue of RE. Although my RE/stocks ratio is closer to 1:1.

As a retired guy I get cash and spending money from stocks as necessary. The RE is part of my planned legacy -- one of the ways to snooker the tax man is to die and get a step-up in basis. An in the meantime it produces a nice cash flow while generating a tax loss. The miracle of depreciation.
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Post by HomerJ »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:43 pmThe RE is part of my planned legacy --
It is a good plan, and I'm sure it will be greatly appreciated by your heirs.

But, just speaking from experience, inheriting real estate can be a HUGE pain compared to inheriting a brokerage account.

An account with $1 million in stocks/bonds in it is a lot easier than dealing with 4 homes worth $1 million (maybe in a state that I don't even live in) :shock:
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:29 am I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate.
As far as a panic goes this seems like a pretty reasonable one. I can see the draw of making a move like this.
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:54 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:43 pmThe RE is part of my planned legacy --
It is a good plan, and I'm sure it will be greatly appreciated by your heirs.

But, just speaking from experience, inheriting real estate can be a HUGE pain compared to inheriting a brokerage account.

An account with $1 million in stocks/bonds in it is a lot easier than dealing with 4 homes worth $1 million (maybe in a state that I don't even live in) :shock:
I agree. But I really like the diversification the RE adds to the overall portfolio. I suppose that if dealing with the RE is going to be too much trouble for our heirs, I could always give it to our church. Next time I see them I will bring that possibility up and see what they say. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Ouch on the Russell 2000 with -1.60%. House of Pain!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:20 pm Ouch on the Russell 2000 with -1.60%. House of Pain!
GME down 3.64%. We're free falling...
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

S&P 500 squeezed in another record close. Chugging right along, next stop 4100? Nobody knows....
Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:41 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:54 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:43 pmThe RE is part of my planned legacy --
It is a good plan, and I'm sure it will be greatly appreciated by your heirs.

But, just speaking from experience, inheriting real estate can be a HUGE pain compared to inheriting a brokerage account.

An account with $1 million in stocks/bonds in it is a lot easier than dealing with 4 homes worth $1 million (maybe in a state that I don't even live in) :shock:
I agree. But I really like the diversification the RE adds to the overall portfolio. I suppose that if dealing with the RE is going to be too much trouble for our heirs, I could always give it to our church. Next time I see them I will bring that possibility up and see what they say. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Heh, touche` :beer
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:32 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:14 pm ...I'm not seeing much in the way of solid evidence against Roubini's overall thesis as presented in the Apr. 2020 article.
See below.
OK. But I didn't see anything that addresses my comment.
Beensabu wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:48 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:36 am A Bloomberg headline today says, "Roubini Warns U.S. Yields Above 2% Will Bite Amid Excess Risk". LOL, Roubini. Dr. Doom. I remember the thread from last year, "This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]".
link
The link in that thread is a really good link. That's a good article. Age doesn't change what it has to say.
Looks like I jumped the gun on saying "LOL, Roubini". Appreciate both your replies.

Don't want to hijack this thread, so allow me to get it back on the rails. The market is currently soaring. Woohoo! There.
I see it as on-topic, to the extent that the economy has some relationship to the markets (sometimes). Yes, the market is at an all-time-high. So far, Roubini's script is playing out ("In the short run, governments will need to run monetised fiscal deficits to avoid depression and deflation").
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Han, do some Google searches of Roubini and add in like 2013 or other years.
Roubini sticks to 2013 "perfect storm" prediction
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roub ... C820120717
Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global “perfect storm” next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the euro zone’s debt crisis accelerates.

Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed “Dr Doom” for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.

Those factors are a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world’s biggest economy into recession; a hard landing for China’s economy; further slowing in emerging markets; and a military confrontation with Iran.

“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm,” Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters.

Roubini’s gloomy 2013 outlook isn’t new, but it’s getting more purchase as slowing economies and Europe’s debt crisis drive turbulence in financial markets.

After what he expects will be a flat year for U.S. stocks in 2012, Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.
S&P 500 went up 15% in 2012 and 20% in 2013.

He's a perma-bear. He always has good reasons. He's not always right.

No one is. This is something I've learned after 50+ years on this planet. Economics and Finance is not a real science like physics. No one knows enough to make accurate predictions. There are too many variables. Human emotions are involved. There are NO, I mean ZERO, experts.
In his speech at the 1974 Nobel Prize banquet, Friedrich Hayek stated that had he been consulted on the establishment of a Nobel Prize in economics, he would "have decidedly advised against it" primarily because, "The Nobel Prize confers on an individual an authority which in economics no man ought to possess....
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:20 pm S&P 500 went up 15% in 2012 and 20% in 2013.

He's a perma-bear. He always has good reasons. He's not always right.
I suppose perma-bulls are more often right than perma-bears, in terms of number of up years vs. down years. I don't pay much attention to either (as far as market prognostication is concerned).

I have no expectation that Roubini (or anyone) knows when the ups/downs in the market will be. I'm paying attention to his commentary on the economy, not the markets, and I find it to be informative. Regarding 2012-2013, as well as this year, these are periods where the economy was still in the ICU, so to speak, with ZIRP/QE policies still in effect. It's not exactly a sign of health. And that may or may not have consequences. I'm not in this to make predictions, but to gain an understanding of the situation we're in.

I've been in the ICU before. It's a nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Kookaburra »

Futures are up again. Tomorrow, VTI might cross 10% return YTD.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Kookaburra wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:42 pm Futures are up again. Tomorrow, VTI might cross 10% return YTD.
I think they're front-running the jobs report, already assuming the numbers would beat.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Dow futures just hit 33,333 kinda a cool number.
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

I like 33,334 better.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:41 am I like 33,334 better.
Back down to 33,332, now you did it...
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