What is your contrarian/alternative play?

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aristotelian
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by aristotelian »

Contrarian to what? A diversified portfolio should have built in hedging to a variety of risks. By bond portfolio is contrarian to stocks, international is contrarian to US, etc.
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Bluce
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Bluce »

B. Wellington wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:45 am ^^^This! Over this past year I have watched coworkers, friends, and family, jump from bonds to stocks. Stocks to crypto. Crypto to silver. Silver to Game stop. Always chasing the next hot fad. (Now the popular past-time is on-line gambling.)

Now that said, my contrarian view has always been total return investing. DW and I are looking at retirement in the coming months.
As always, YMMV.
Ha, yes. I guess I'm just an old boiler-plate guy, stuck in the past. I started slowing de-risking (more bonds, fewer stocks) in my mid-50s. Over probably 10 years I got to 30/70 where I remain today at age 70. I don't see any reason to change anything.

I don't make any changes except to re-balance -- which is usually not a big deal because of my small equity holdings.
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watchnerd
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

I'm toying with the modeling of replacing 10% cash with a mixture of 50% US Dollar Bull (UUP) / 50% Chinese Yuan Bull (CYB):

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=50
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foodhype
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by foodhype »

I migrated from 3 fund to 100% VTSAX several years ago.

I hold a lot of Alphabet stock.

This is only contrarian coming from a proud Boglehead and Dodd and Graham background.
Escapevelocity
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Escapevelocity »

A few limited allocations aimed at offsetting our low interest rate environment

1. $100k cash at HM Bradley (FDIC Insured via Hatch Bank) earning 3.5% APY
2. Crypto - $5k at BlockFI - GUSD stable coin earning 8.6% "interest"
3. $57k in domestic energy pipelines (MLPs) yielding 7-8% distributions
GaryA505
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by GaryA505 »

B. Wellington wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:45 am
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:03 pm I believe that staying the course is contrarian. It is the opposite of what the majority of investors do, which is to try to duck and weave.

I don't know how to "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," but if I just keep going straight down the center, then when others are fearful I will be more greedy then they, and when others are greedy I will be more fearful then they.

I never not invested in alternatives. Traditional securities--stocks and bonds--both offer a good risk-adjusted reward, and an easy intuitive explanation of how they make money and might be expected to keep making it. By choosing an asset allocation I can tune the risk to anywhere within the range suitable for me. The case for alternatives has always seemed dubious to me in the first place, and time after time when I watch what has happened to heavily-touted alternatives, they have not panned out. People always show charts of mouthwatering past performance during the days when retail investors had no vehicles for investing in them, and mysteriously the performance always seems to evaporate at just about the time they become available in liquid, easy-to-buy, suitable-for-retail-investors mutual funds or ETFs.
^^^This! Over this past year I have watched coworkers, friends, and family, jump from bonds to stocks. Stocks to crypto. Crypto to silver. Silver to Game stop. Always chasing the next hot fad. (Now the popular past-time is on-line gambling.)

Now that said, my contrarian view has always been total return investing. DW and I are looking at retirement in the coming months.
As always, YMMV.
Those coworkers, friends, and family will all brag when they make a good gain, but questions regarding their losses will be met with a blank stare.
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watchnerd
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:48 am international is contrarian to US, etc.
Since US stocks and international (EM + DM) are highly correlated these days, I'm not sure how can contrarian that is.

Frontier markets are less correlated (0.60 - 0.67) and are arguably more contrarian.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36

Frontier markets also pass the "are you crazy?" emotional reaction test that a truly contrarian play evokes.
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Nathan Drake
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Nathan Drake »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:07 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:48 am international is contrarian to US, etc.
Since US stocks and international (EM + DM) are highly correlated these days, I'm not sure how can contrarian that is.

Frontier markets are less correlated (0.60 - 0.67) and are arguably more contrarian.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36

Correlation isn’t the only factor at play, it does not tell us how large the gap is for the dispersion of returns
aristotelian
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by aristotelian »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:07 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:48 am international is contrarian to US, etc.
Since US stocks and international (EM + DM) are highly correlated these days, I'm not sure how can contrarian that is.

Frontier markets are less correlated (0.60 - 0.67) and are arguably more contrarian.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36

Frontier markets also pass the "are you crazy?" emotional reaction test that a truly contrarian play evokes.
If they may be highly correlated but still have one seemingly systematically underperform the other.
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watchnerd
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:08 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:07 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:48 am international is contrarian to US, etc.
Since US stocks and international (EM + DM) are highly correlated these days, I'm not sure how can contrarian that is.

Frontier markets are less correlated (0.60 - 0.67) and are arguably more contrarian.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36

Correlation isn’t the only factor at play, it does not tell us how large the gap is for the dispersion of returns

Regardless, the macro point stands.

It's not very contrarian to pick an asset class that is a major part of Vanguard Life Strategy and Target Date funds.
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DB2
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by DB2 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:23 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:08 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:07 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:48 am international is contrarian to US, etc.
Since US stocks and international (EM + DM) are highly correlated these days, I'm not sure how can contrarian that is.

Frontier markets are less correlated (0.60 - 0.67) and are arguably more contrarian.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ass ... &months=36

Correlation isn’t the only factor at play, it does not tell us how large the gap is for the dispersion of returns

Regardless, the macro point stands.

It's not very contrarian to pick an asset class that is a major part of Vanguard Life Strategy and Target Date funds.
Funny as I was just going to post; most would do a lot better just holding a Vanguard Target Date fund and forgetting about it all.
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watchnerd
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

DB2 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:29 pm

Funny as I was just going to post; most would do a lot better just holding a Vanguard Target Date fund and forgetting about it all.
I mean, that's a valid choice, but not really the topic of the thread.

It's a lot more fun to talk about alternative realties. ;)
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DB2
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by DB2 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:35 pm
DB2 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:29 pm

Funny as I was just going to post; most would do a lot better just holding a Vanguard Target Date fund and forgetting about it all.
I mean, that's a valid choice, but not really the topic of the thread.

It's a lot more fun to talk about alternative realties. ;)
Understood and I get that desire to play with 5-10% or whatever.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by manuvns »

buy anything from a core set of assets that are in bear territory. look for distressed real estate for a flip or rental
Iorek
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Iorek »

P4100354 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 pm Hi everyone!

I want to ask those Bogleheads, who have deviated away from the traditional 3-fund portfolio, what is your current contrarian/alternative asset play? For me personally, after doing a heavy dive into macroeconomics, I have started to allocated a minor portion to BTC and a slightly larger position to gold.
My contrarian play is to ignore BTC.

This reminds me why I never invested in Fidelity’s Contrafund, despite its stellar returns (at least at the time).
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epicahab
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by epicahab »

Normchad wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:21 pm I wouldn’t count myself a contrarian. But some thoughts that I have, that aren’t universally held, are...

1. Still not sure about international. I fantasize about having all of my assets in VSMGX, but alternately just want to stuff it in VBIAX.
2. I am totally comfortable with the 4% SWR. But i will go further. I’d personally use it as a “withdrawal methodology”, not just a guideline. I’d also be okay making “robotic withdrawals” rather than adjusting as time unfolds. I probably won’t do theses things, but I’d be okay with doing it.
3, I plan on taking SS the minute I’m eligible.
4. I do have 30 shares of TSLA. The main reason I have it is because I never bought AAPL, and feel like a chump. I knew their stuff was great, and I bought the stuff. But I should have bought the stock. So I bought TSLA just so I wouldn’t feel like a chump if it blew up.
5. I love having gobs and bobs of cash in the bank or a MM account, earning basically nothing.
6. I buy brand new cars
7. I don’t spend any time thinking about credit card rewards or airline miles
8. I don’t haggle, or otherwise obsess, over getting the absolute best deal on things.

But these are all on the margin. The big flick picture is, I love well below my means, I invest faithfully in low cost index funds, and I basically never touch them. And doing those things has led to fabulous results for me, as it has for others.
1. Same. International is not currently in my allocation.
5. Same
6. Same

3. Different, I hope to wait a few years.
7. Different, I've amassed a good amount.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by hudson »

Normchad wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:21 pm I wouldn’t count myself a contrarian. But some thoughts that I have, that aren’t universally held, are...

1. Still not sure about international. I fantasize about having all of my assets in VSMGX, but alternately just want to stuff it in VBIAX.
2. I am totally comfortable with the 4% SWR. But i will go further. I’d personally use it as a “withdrawal methodology”, not just a guideline. I’d also be okay making “robotic withdrawals” rather than adjusting as time unfolds. I probably won’t do theses things, but I’d be okay with doing it.
3, I plan on taking SS the minute I’m eligible.
4. I do have 30 shares of TSLA. The main reason I have it is because I never bought AAPL, and feel like a chump. I knew their stuff was great, and I bought the stuff. But I should have bought the stock. So I bought TSLA just so I wouldn’t feel like a chump if it blew up.
5. I love having gobs and bobs of cash in the bank or a MM account, earning basically nothing.
6. I buy brand new cars
7. I don’t spend any time thinking about credit card rewards or airline miles
8. I don’t haggle, or otherwise obsess, over getting the absolute best deal on things.

But these are all on the margin. The big flick picture is, I love well below my means, I invest faithfully in low cost index funds, and I basically never touch them. And doing those things has led to fabulous results for me, as it has for others.
1. international...never
2. skip...old school pension/social security
3. took at full retirement age of 66
4. no TSLA...no equities
5. Cash...yes...but not gobs.
6. brand new cars...yes with exceptions
7. rewards...yes 2% all, 3% grocery, 5% gas... I like to throw nickels around like manhole covers.
8. haggle...call around...take bids on new vehicles. I got tired of being taken advantage of. I can call around and sometimes get a $4K reduction off of initial quote.
Last edited by hudson on Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by White Coat Investor »

P4100354 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 pm Hi everyone!

I want to ask those Bogleheads, who have deviated away from the traditional 3-fund portfolio, what is your current contrarian/alternative asset play? For me personally, after doing a heavy dive into macroeconomics, I have started to allocated a minor portion to BTC and a slightly larger position to gold.
I built my portfolio before there was a "traditional" 3 fund portfolio. Does that count as contrarian?
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by nisiprius »

I believe that staying the course in a simple portfolio of broad index funds is a truly contrarian play.

It's contrarian because 90% of the money in the stock market is invested in something different from that.

And by staying the course, I am automatically more fearful than most investors when most investors are greedy, and more greedy than most investors when most investors are fearful.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Bluce »

GaryA505 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am
B. Wellington wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:45 am ^^^This! Over this past year I have watched coworkers, friends, and family, jump from bonds to stocks. Stocks to crypto. Crypto to silver. Silver to Game stop. Always chasing the next hot fad. (Now the popular past-time is on-line gambling.)

Now that said, my contrarian view has always been total return investing. DW and I are looking at retirement in the coming months.
As always, YMMV.
Those coworkers, friends, and family will all brag when they make a good gain, but questions regarding their losses will be met with a blank stare.
Ha, yep, same thing that gamblers do.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by dixdak »

Hmmm, as far as play, my only skis and tennis racquet are wooden. Thats pretty contrarian/alternative. My backpacking gear is up to date.

As far as financial contrarian/alternative plays, I love metals. I feel copper mining will do very well over the next few decades due to economic growth, electrification using green power and EVs. I like the precious metals for use in solar, fuel cells and electronics, as well as a store of wealth. I find Bullion Vault very user friendly and competitive to hold gold, silver and platinum. I hold palladium in an ETF- PALL. I feel rare earth/technology metals are going to explode when demand far exceeds supply. It is very difficult to find companies in that field to invest in. I purchased dysprosium oxide, terbium oxide, gallium, indium, and neodymium oxide from Tradium GMBH through strategicmetalsinvest.com and have them stored in a Metlock facility in Germany. There is a 2 % storage fee and Tradium will repurchase at the standard bid/ask spread. Dysprosium is up over 80% since November 2020. China processes almost all of the worlds supply of HREE, heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. Half of the HREE ore that China processes is imported from Myanmar, a very volatile situation. Without HREEs, there are no offshore wind turbines. I guess that would qualify as a contrarian/alternative investment play. Also, I have some minuscule investments in helium, scandium, vanadium and graphite mining.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by secondopinion »

GaryA505 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am
B. Wellington wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:45 am
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:03 pm I believe that staying the course is contrarian. It is the opposite of what the majority of investors do, which is to try to duck and weave.

I don't know how to "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," but if I just keep going straight down the center, then when others are fearful I will be more greedy then they, and when others are greedy I will be more fearful then they.

I never not invested in alternatives. Traditional securities--stocks and bonds--both offer a good risk-adjusted reward, and an easy intuitive explanation of how they make money and might be expected to keep making it. By choosing an asset allocation I can tune the risk to anywhere within the range suitable for me. The case for alternatives has always seemed dubious to me in the first place, and time after time when I watch what has happened to heavily-touted alternatives, they have not panned out. People always show charts of mouthwatering past performance during the days when retail investors had no vehicles for investing in them, and mysteriously the performance always seems to evaporate at just about the time they become available in liquid, easy-to-buy, suitable-for-retail-investors mutual funds or ETFs.
^^^This! Over this past year I have watched coworkers, friends, and family, jump from bonds to stocks. Stocks to crypto. Crypto to silver. Silver to Game stop. Always chasing the next hot fad. (Now the popular past-time is on-line gambling.)

Now that said, my contrarian view has always been total return investing. DW and I are looking at retirement in the coming months.
As always, YMMV.
Those coworkers, friends, and family will all brag when they make a good gain, but questions regarding their losses will be met with a blank stare.
I guess few will tell the whole truth; the truth is often boring in the markets. Why do they lie?
It is better to be half-wrong than have a 50% chance of being all-wrong. With the former, you will learn and have money to try again. Otherwise, you will never learn and will have nothing eventually.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by BGeste »

High equity allocation in retirement. 75% +. Enough in bonds to cover 15 years of expenses. Rest in equities.

Value funds / ETFs that pay strong dividends

Renting better than buying
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

I have to say that what qualifies as an "alternative play" in Boglehead land, for the most part, appears to be about as exciting as playing Pinochle as a racy alternative to Bingo.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by txhill »

This is a pretty interesting thread because what appears "contrarian" is a matter of perspective. There's $1 trillion in bitcoin and over $4 trillion in passive index funds--and there's about $400 trillion in total global wealth. So either one could be viewed as a contrarian play, but it's interesting that a lot of folks here describe index investing as more of a contrarian play than bitcoin. I think it just boils down to your perspective and what you see in your own social circles (and how loud the crypto enthusiasts are relative to passive investors).

I do think that ignoring credit card rewards is a contrarian play though!
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by GaryA505 »

I guess it would be contrarian to Boglehead philosophy, if that could be clearly defined.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Robot Monster »

Here's a contrarian play for you, a Thailand & Phillippines tilt, just because of recent underperformance, so maybe it's like a deep value play or something. Here is its performance compared to the S&P and Emerging Markets. link
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by whereskyle »

Long term bonds. Mostly treasuries but some corporates as well. I think low interest rates are here to stay. If not, I have plenty of time.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:52 pm Here's a contrarian play for you, a Thailand & Phillippines tilt, just because of recent underperformance, so maybe it's like a deep value play or something. Here is its performance compared to the S&P and Emerging Markets. link
I'd go FM, instead, for the Vietnam play.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Crushtheturtle »

Swing trading

Blue chip stocks, indicating oversold by bouncing off support on a daily chart.

Support could be a certain price level, whole/half number, or Simple Moving Average (20,50,100,200 day)
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Bluce »

whereskyle wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:53 pm Long term bonds. Mostly treasuries but some corporates as well. I think low interest rates are here to stay. If not, I have plenty of time.
Yeah, I don't get the hysterical fear of bonds. Just because they've been in a 40-year bull doesn't necessarily mean they must go into a 40-year bear.

Rates could dither for years, they could trend up gradually -- and in either case I don't care.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Trader Joe »

P4100354 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 pm Hi everyone!

I want to ask those Bogleheads, who have deviated away from the traditional 3-fund portfolio, what is your current contrarian/alternative asset play? For me personally, after doing a heavy dive into macroeconomics, I have started to allocated a minor portion to BTC and a slightly larger position to gold.
Well, I am 100% invested in VFIAX/VTSAX.

Zero invested in international. Zero invested in bonds.

And I am very happy with my investment results.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by MotoTrojan »

I hold the majority of my portfolio in value funds, but would say the majority of them (40% of portfolio in QVAL/IVAL) are not in consensus Boglehead value fashion because they don't regress well on standard factor models (lots of alpha, in both directions) and concentrate deeply (50 holdings).

https://alphaarchitect.com/2017/10/31/f ... t-factors/

https://alphaarchitect.com/2014/10/07/t ... hilosophy/

Vast majority of value products solely or partially use P/B, where-as these funds don't at all (use EBIT/EV) so that seems contrarian too.

https://twitter.com/RyanPKirlin/status/ ... 0212177922
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Sandtrap »

6 fund hybrid (2 fund) LMP per Bernstein.

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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

Bluce wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:28 pm
whereskyle wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:53 pm Long term bonds. Mostly treasuries but some corporates as well. I think low interest rates are here to stay. If not, I have plenty of time.
Yeah, I don't get the hysterical fear of bonds. Just because they've been in a 40-year bull doesn't necessarily mean they must go into a 40-year bear.

Rates could dither for years, they could trend up gradually -- and in either case I don't care.
We also had negative real rates in the recent past.

~2013, if I recall correctly, was negative real yield.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

Trader Joe wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:46 pm
P4100354 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:12 pm Hi everyone!

I want to ask those Bogleheads, who have deviated away from the traditional 3-fund portfolio, what is your current contrarian/alternative asset play? For me personally, after doing a heavy dive into macroeconomics, I have started to allocated a minor portion to BTC and a slightly larger position to gold.
Well, I am 100% invested in VFIAX/VTSAX.

Zero invested in international. Zero invested in bonds.

And I am very happy with my investment results.
In a US bull market, isn't that the opposite of contrarian?
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by rj49 »

My alternative is simply replacing bond funds with Fundrise real estate, since it pays well over 5%, doesn't suffer losses, doesn't have the NAV swings of a traded real estate fund, and is diversified by geography and type of investment. It's also been good about getting ahead of trends, by hoarding cash last year (and pausing redemptions) and now actively investing in Sunbelt city single-family rental homes and apartment complexes in suburbs of places like Tampa, Austin, and Houston.That way I get a share of the financial ongoing benefits of being a landlord, but without the hassles and risks of owning my own rental properties. My other alternative real estate investment was simply buying my house with cash 6 years ago, and it's doubled in value--I have the option of monetizing the value through a reverse mortgage.

I also set up a CD ladder at 1.8% for 6 years through Discover Bank last April, when it was clear the Fed would be dramatically lowering rates.

The common 'alternatives' are simply too risky for me--precious metals, commodities, hedged funds, and even high-dividend stocks. Even bonds are too risky, since we've seen they can lose value and even ultra-safe ibonds have the risk of low yields during extended periods of low inflation. Larry Swedroe and David Swenson warned against taking risk on the bond side. I only keep 20% bonds in my Roth, for decades of compounding, and a generous helping of the G fund in my TSP, since it will rise in value if interest rates climb.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

aristotelian wrote: "What is your contrarian/alternative play."
aristotelian:

I don't "play" with my investments. I simply stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by BJJ_GUY »

Some thematic ideas:

1.) To diversify away from the momentum/overpriced top positions in the global market (VT), a handful of unique active managers with benchmark agnostic styles. Examples: (PVCMX, KGGAX, SIGIX, EVGBX)

2.) Inflation/Deflation and Miscellaneous Hedging Potential. Examples: (GLD, IVOL, INFL)

3.) Increased cash to buffer volatility and provide dry powder to redeploy into dislocations
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by corp_sharecropper »

I built my portfolio to be a lot more complex, diverse, and robust than a "3 fund" portfolio. In addition to the usual equities it's got boglehead favorites such as upstream nat resources, commodities, em bonds (usd & local), REITs, gold, crypto, value, momentum, some long volatility, asymmetric plays, spread through different tax/advantaged accounts, and some responsible leverage to bring the volatility/expected return to the levels that I need and can sleep with. Managed from a spreadsheet and a few free tools, I probably only need to look at it once a quarter but I enjoy It enough that I look more than enough.

I find it almost amusing that someone with a 60/40 TSM/TBM portfolio considers that "balanced" or even "conservative". If balanced is a portfolio almost entirely driven by equities (and let's be honest, it's likely mostly just US equities) I don't know what to say. On the other end of the spectrum there's the 100% equities people, the majority of which won't be able to hold onto that under circumstances unlike the past decade. The day anything other than falling rates, low/zero/steady inflation, or near instant recovery of falling equities hits, it won't be fun for anyone but it will especially rock the ones who think their 60% US equities and 40% muddle of 6 year bonds made them safe from it all. I don't know how I'll fare, any smugness would be hubris, but I like my chances of getting through most economic regimes better than typical portfolios. This is all just one man's opinion, I respect the Boglehead way and think it has done immeasurable amount of good for an enormous amount of people, myself included.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:51 pm and some responsible leverage to bring the volatility/expected return to the levels that I need and can sleep with.
In what manner are you using leverage to tackle volatility?
60% Global Market Stocks (VT,FM) | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS 10% currencies / cash || RSU + ESPP | LMP TIPS/STRIPS
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:33 pm
aristotelian wrote: "What is your contrarian/alternative play."
aristotelian:

I don't "play" with my investments. I simply stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you."
Excellent advice Taylor! Investors would be wise to listen.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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wshang
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by wshang »

rj49 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:31 pm My alternative is simply replacing bond funds with Fundrise real estate, since it pays well over 5%, . . . Even bonds are too risky, since we've seen they can lose value and even ultra-safe ibonds have the risk of low yields during extended periods of low inflation. Larry Swedroe and David Swenson warned against taking risk on the bond side.
My corporate bond portfolio has been entirely liquidated due to near zero of interest rates. For the past year, I have replaced the yield with cash backed put selling against the SPY helped by a high VIX.
The cure shouldn't be worse than the disease.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Scott S »

I'm starting to nibble at GLDM. I like how even a small percentage of "paper gold" helps to smooth out portfolio volatility, even after the 1970s. Every so often, it's the better counterweight to stocks than long-term Treasuries. I doubt I'll go higher than 5-10%, though.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by EmperorPenguin »

My only investment in big tech comes from IUSQ / MSCI ACWI, and I actively avoid it right now outside of my 15% allocation to this. My job is in this sector, so I feel sufficiently exposed to it already. (And working in technical due diligence on the side, I regularly get scared to the bone when looking at what glues regional tech companies' infrastructure together.)
Instead, overweight in small financial institutions with good value parameters, pipeline real estate, and some direct Japanese / island-based utilities (seeking out 4%+ in dividends at 0.7 P/B or lower) + daily necessities. Also looking to get into German private equity. There are also bonds available for non-public German companies at 6%+ p.a. for 4-5 years. Those are risky, but also something I am currently looking into (but haven't invested in yet).
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by Robot Monster »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:00 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:52 pm Here's a contrarian play for you, a Thailand & Phillippines tilt, just because of recent underperformance, so maybe it's like a deep value play or something.
I'd go FM, instead, for the Vietnam play.
I'll compromise with you and let Vietnam join in on the action via VNM ETF, for a nice Asian salad mix of Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by CatchingDaggers »

I look for panic sell threads on bogleheads then buy whatever it is they are planning to sell.
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by khangaroo »

Now that crypto is becoming more and more mainstream I think it's about picking the right horse but I guess that's the exact same as picking stocks lol

My 401k and Roth are traditionally in total market indexes and some international but I have begun dumping money into Cardano (ADA) which I believe to be the next big thing after BTC/ETH. The current price is $1.35 as we speak and MARK MY WORDS, THE PRICE (1) YEAR FROM NOW WILL BE HIGHER THAN THAT.

Adding to my calendar to check this comment 1 year from now.
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wshang
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by wshang »

khangaroo wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:17 am Now that crypto is becoming more and more mainstream
MARK MY WORDS, THE PRICE (1) YEAR FROM NOW WILL BE HIGHER THAN THAT.

Adding to my calendar to check this comment 1 year from now.
So you will comp me for any loss? :P
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watchnerd
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Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Post by watchnerd »

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of a risk-parity USD bull / China Yuan bull as an alternative to cash.

It models as giving a little more return, a little more diversification, a little more volatility, no meaningful extra duration or credit risk, and improved Sharpe / Sortino ratio.

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