Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

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IMO
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by IMO »

inspector00 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:30 am While this is fun to look at, does anyone really make decisions based off of it? Unless you're planning to downsize significantly don't you have to live somewhere? If your house is high in value then it's likely the house you're buying is also unless you're planning to move far away.

One commenter mentioned renting instead but if house prices are up then so are rent prices.
I had read somewhere that the number of people looking at zillow was an all time high currently. Ironically, despite the fact that most homeowners aren't going to be selling and then re-buying somewhere else (or selling then renting), I suspect the constant inquiries on zillow artificially makes it seem like a bizillion people are looking for homes to buy. Yes there are a lot right now really looking, but I suspect a huge number are people constantly checking what their bitcoin home is doing giving zillow their record stats. Something the article seemed to overlook.

Increases on zillow, whether fully valid or not (I check on owned multiple SFR properties for giggles) create more FOMO concerns and probably create an economic boost as psychologically people probably feel better about spending money simply because their home (that they are not selling) may have gone up in value. Not comparable to the stock market ups, but something tangible for many people.

The decision that most people should be making is calculating how much their property taxes are going to be increasing. Californian's with their Prop 13 can rest assured their taxes will only go up 2% next year. If one's state doesn't have stop guards like Prop 13, people should be expecting a more significant property tax increase next assessment. I guess a reasonable trade off.
IMO
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by IMO »

Okay, I'm posting what I feel is real time/accurate data. Area is a very desirable community in Phoenix, all homes were sold in February 2021, and all zillow data is recent that included the recent sale. Homes are all tract homes so no odd outliers:

List Price/ Sold Price / CURRENT Zillow estimate after sale date recorded (values in thousands)
$450 / $465 / $480
$395 / $405 / $415
$619 / $635 / $653
$345 / $350 / $360
$419 / $415 / $424
$399 / $395 / $407
$360 / $360 / $346
$375 / $350 / $360
$600 / $642 / $661
$480 / $500 / $515
$375 / $385 / $397
$320 / $330 / $340
$395 / $405 / $415

Per Zillow, over the last 12 months, homes have gone up about 16% (Zillow predicts about 7.6% increase next 12 months).

There are just over 30 homes pending sales, and just under 10 active listings. There are about 10,000 homes in the community.

Interesting stats on a highly desirable community. As a poster just noted, people just aren't really selling. I mean where are they going to move? Would you want to sell and then find yourself trying to move somewhere else with the uncertainty of being able to actually rebuy a house right now? And what's the motivation? Sell very high and likely buy somewhere else very high?

And why the FOMO panic to buy this minute? Hasn't the stock market done at least that well? People should be FOMO buying the stock market instead?
Last edited by IMO on Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ron Ronnerson
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Ron Ronnerson »

This thread raised my curiosity so I checked yesterday and the zestimate seemed a little bit low. It went up $45k today (up about 5%). Still seems slightly too low based on recent comps but in the right ballpark now.
Metsfan91
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Metsfan91 »

SQRT wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:03 pm
Metsfan91 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:33 pm Nope, didn't notice nor don't care. Ain't selling nor going nowhere.
But you care enough to post a reply?
Visited. Hence left footprint :-)


Normchad wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:07 pm
Metsfan91 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:33 pm Nope, didn't notice nor don't care. Ain't selling nor going nowhere.
A reason to care is that your real estate taxes will probably rise proportionally in the future. Not always true, but often times is the case.
My state provides protection or limits rise to taxable assessment...Higher property tax is not a concern at all.
rockstar
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by rockstar »

The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
foo.c
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by foo.c »

Yes. As of today mine has gone up 20% in 30 days. Getting close to twice what I paid for it 6 years ago.
mnsportsgeek
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by mnsportsgeek »

Mine went up a little bit, but has been climbing quite a bit since we closed in December 2020.

Purchased for 365. Zestimate at ~380k today. Redfin at ~370k. Not sure I put much weight into it, but Redfin feels pretty accurate given the price I paid 5 months ago.

What I do find interesting is that there are less than 5 4+ bed/2+ bath homes on the market in my town of 100,000. That is crazy low. They are building new houses but they're way more expensive than a pre-existing one. Seems pretty obvious that lack of supply is driving home prices.
Last edited by mnsportsgeek on Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
z3r0c00l
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by z3r0c00l »

rockstar wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:16 pm The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
Why doesn't it make sense? A person earning $600,000 a year finds themselves stuck in a tiny Manhattan apartment during a pandemic and they realize $1.2 million is worth it to have a place in the country with lots of outdoor space. Sure that place might have been $800K 10 years ago but what does that matter?
Bobby206
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Bobby206 »

bigtex wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 pm I noticed my Zillow home value increased by 20k this past month. Are any of you seeing this too? I wonder if Zillow changed their algorithm or something?
I love zillow but it's so inconsistent. It shows my primary residence to be worth $775k and we are in contract to sell it for almost $1.2m after having 8 offers over $1m. Lol.

On the other hand some of my rentals, in another city, that I think are worth about $125k they have at about $200k. I would take $200k all day long if anybody wants to buy them!
SQRT
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by SQRT »

In our area, they seem fairly close to real values. Certainly directionally at least.
quantAndHold
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by quantAndHold »

IMO wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:57 pm And why the FOMO panic to buy this minute? Hasn't the stock market done at least that well? People should be FOMO buying the stock market instead?
Two words....interest rates. People with mortgages typically care more about their monthly payment than the actual sale price. So when interest rates go down, people can get a mortgage for a higher priced house and still have the same payment, and vice versa. It’s clear that with the economy rebounding quickly, interest rates are not going to stay this low forever. So everyone is playing a game of musical chairs, trying to find a place and get the mortgage locked down before interest rates go up.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
RobLyons
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by RobLyons »

bigtex wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 pm I noticed my Zillow home value increased by 20k this past month. Are any of you seeing this too? I wonder if Zillow changed their algorithm or something?

Thanks for the post. Yes, in fact mine jumped $36k over the last 30 days. Incredible!
But even with that huge jump, we could absolutely get 20% above asking.
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Wanderingwheelz
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

When I first saw this post the other day and looked I didn’t see a change, But today I was curious so I went back to look and I saw it’s up sharply- 11.1%.
3 Fund Portfolio. 70%/30% AA. No mortgage. Simple.
oyster99
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by oyster99 »

Metsfan91 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:15 pm
Normchad wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:07 pm
A reason to care is that your real estate taxes will probably rise proportionally in the future. Not always true, but often times is the case.
My state provides protection or limits rise to taxable assessment...Higher property tax is not a concern at all.
This paper titled "The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues" by Byron F. Lutz, Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
Research Division...might be of interest.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/fed ... 848pap.pdf

ABSTRACT
This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house
prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This
elasticity does not necessarily equal 1 as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset
changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional
features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately
influence tax revenues. The results suggest that the elasticity eventually equals 0.4 and that it
takes three years for house price changes to impact tax revenues
.
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willthrill81
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by willthrill81 »

The Zestimate for our home is up about 8% from last month. :shock: But I still think that it's about 5% low. :D
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Nowizard
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Nowizard »

There is a 25% difference between Zillow Guestimate and the one on Trulia for our house, Zillow higher. Oops, just looked. It is up again, 8K the past week.

Tim
DesertDiva
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by DesertDiva »

barnaclebob wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:52 pm
DesertDiva wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:54 pm I don’t check Zillow. If I want/need an accurate number, I would pay for a bank appraisal.
Thats a good way to light $750 on fire with no better accuracy than a real estate agent.
Hmm... that must be why I don’t do it very often. :twisted:
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Watty
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Watty »

Tamales wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:53 am ....
I may be in the same (seller's) boat later this year, and setting aside that 6 seems like it might be overkill, my impression has been that the realtor will list at whatever the seller wants to list at, even if they think it's a bad idea. And in the current market it almost doesn't matter who you choose as realtor, once it hits the MLS, the offers come in regardless of your realtor's guess or zillow's guess on what it will bring.

If that's not at all what you meant, I'd still be interested in your main screening criteria and why you chose 6.
Thanks.
There is no way that talking to six real estate agents is excessive.

It was a while back but the last time I sold a house I talked to at least six on the telephone them picked three to come to then house to see it them come back later to present their Comparative Market Analysis. I then picked one to list the house. It was a great learning experience for me and they all had different point of view. It was also clear that one of them that had sold a number of houses in my subdivision was encouraging me to list it low for a quick and easy(for her) sale.
tim1999
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by tim1999 »

Mine went up about 1% a few days ago and another .25% today. The value is actually a little low (5% ?) given what other similar homes nearby have closed for in the past two weeks.
rebellovw
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by rebellovw »

Crazy - mine went up another 20K. Fun to watch at least.
Metsfan91
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Metsfan91 »

oyster99 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:45 am
Metsfan91 wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:15 pm
Normchad wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:07 pm
A reason to care is that your real estate taxes will probably rise proportionally in the future. Not always true, but often times is the case.
My state provides protection or limits rise to taxable assessment...Higher property tax is not a concern at all.
This paper titled "The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues" by Byron F. Lutz, Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
Research Division...might be of interest.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/fed ... 848pap.pdf

ABSTRACT
This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house
prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This
elasticity does not necessarily equal 1 as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset
changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional
features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately
influence tax revenues. The results suggest that the elasticity eventually equals 0.4 and that it
takes three years for house price changes to impact tax revenues
.
Thanks for the link. This paper states,
...most states have some form of caps and/or limits on property tax rates, tax revenues or taxable
assessments. During periods of rapid house price growth, these limits will prevent assessments
or revenues from growing at the same pace as market values. Michigan provides an example; it
has an assessment growth limit of the lower of five percent or the rate of inflation (Anderson
2006). When the rate of house appreciation exceeds this limit, assessments will rise at a slower
rate than market values and a ‘stock’ of untaxed appreciation will develop...
which pretty much provides a confirmation to my claim.
JS-Elcano
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by JS-Elcano »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:17 pm Zillow is estimating our home to be worth about the same now as it was back in September, but I know that's not accurate. In fact, Zillow's estimate is probably at least 15% lower than our actual market value.
Same here. Zillow has no idea what I have done to the inside of my house. It purely goes by price/sq ft of similar houses sold nearby. We had several houses sell in the neighborhood recently and all of them had the original bathrooms (early 90s), flooring, and other builder grade materials that came with the original house, like hollow core doors, builder grade front doors, painted garage floor, basic landscaping (at best) and single pane windows. Therefore, I am estimating that could sell my house for at least 15% more than the Zillow estimate. Probably more. But I have no intention of selling my nest :D
Thesaints
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Thesaints »

Zillow estimates jump may seem out of whack, but a house nearby which had a upper bracket limit of 2.8M just sold for 4.3M...
66Sally
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by 66Sally »

Zillow says our home's value in Southwest FL went up 16.2% in the past 30 days. Homes are on the market for only a day or two before selling, if they are decent. A real estate report I read recently for our area said the homes sold in the past 30 days sold for an average of 97% of asking price. We wanted to move up in house size a little but our nerves couldn't deal with the market in our area. We looked at a house that had 10 showings scheduled for the day and it was sold by the end of the day for asking price of $1.3 cash and no inspection or contingencies.
austin_hiker
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by austin_hiker »

Yes, I noticed this last weekend. My home in Austin went up 30% (about $140,000) last Friday; today it fell about $45,000. Mostly just amused; our local tax appraisals are about to be released and I was wondering if Zillow had somehow gotten access to them. I'm expecting a huge jump.
austin_hiker
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by austin_hiker »

Nowizard wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:11 am There is a 25% difference between Zillow Guestimate and the one on Trulia for our house, Zillow higher. Oops, just looked. It is up again, 8K the past week.

Tim
Zillow owns Trulia; I see my home value is exactly the same on both sites, down to the dollar.
Jack Burton
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by Jack Burton »

I’m in Indianapolis where it’s relatively LCO and no way Zillow is accurate for this market no matter how hot it is. Redfin seems to be spot on though!
cogito
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Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

Post by cogito »

Taxes are a concern, except for those of us in CA :beer

Also, as someone who views my entire net worth as a whole portfolio, the amount of equity I have in my home/RE is a factor I use to roughly think about investing vs. debt paydown. I decided to not pay extra mortgage principal on my 700k mortgage when I gained 100k in home equity in a span of 8 months.
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