2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Mickelous
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:24 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mickelous »

Long

TSLA
XPEV
APPL

Short

RIOT
NKLA
GME

Ahhh missed the boat 😂
solar99999
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:32 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by solar99999 »

solar99999 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:57 pm Long: LSCC
Short: PLUG

Fund Name: "Not What Buffett Would Do"
Day one, last place, so far, so good.

While you all fight for first place, I strive for last place, an equally difficult goal.

I'll be dining at the loser's "buffett."
- Buffetthead | | "[Cash is] thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets."
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

My shorts were all up today.
That's bad news.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
Mudpuppy
Posts: 6625
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:26 am
Location: Sunny California

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mudpuppy »

Tanelorn wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:20 am The game's afoot! The spreadsheet is now tracking everything correctly and as soon as the market opens later today, you should see your performance reflected below.

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest
On my computer (tried both Firefox and Chrome), the spreadsheet is not displaying the % change for several people's "Short C" position, including my own hedge fund. At first I thought perhaps the change was too small to show up, but there are several one penny changes in Short C that are showing a percentage. So I suspect this may be a bug.
Mickelous
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:24 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mickelous »

Mickelous wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:27 am Long

TSLA
XPEV
APPL

Short

RIOT
NKLA
GME

Ahhh missed the boat 😂
XPEV up 20% today, too bad I'm not being counted... :D
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Thank you for everyone who posted corrections, especially Mudpuppy - that was indeed a bug where I hadn't properly expanded the formulas in the table from the spreadsheet I copied over from last year to match the new, larger number of rows since we have more contestants this time around.
Mickelous wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm Ahhh missed the boat 😂
XPEV up 20% today, too bad I'm not being counted... :D
Yes, sorry about that. I did check your picks premarket this morning and if they were down I would have allowed you to enter but they were already doing too well and it's not easy to handicap that. You'd be in 3rd with +14% after today. If you want to track it yourself out of interest, the formulas are in the spreadsheet and it's easy enough to make your own.
User avatar
StormShadow
Posts: 978
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:20 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by StormShadow »

Rick Ferri wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:01 pm East-West Fund

Short TSLA
Long GE

Third time's a charm! :wink:
Whoops! Sorry, didn’t realize we picked the same stocks! That’s crazy. 🤣
Mickelous
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:24 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mickelous »

Tanelorn wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:31 pm Thank you for everyone who posted corrections, especially Mudpuppy - that was indeed a bug where I hadn't properly expanded the formulas in the table from the spreadsheet I copied over from last year to match the new, larger number of rows since we have more contestants this time around.
Mickelous wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm Ahhh missed the boat 😂
XPEV up 20% today, too bad I'm not being counted... :D
Yes, sorry about that. I did check your picks premarket this morning and if they were down I would have allowed you to enter but they were already doing too well and it's not easy to handicap that. You'd be in 3rd with +14% after today. If you want to track it yourself out of interest, the formulas are in the spreadsheet and it's easy enough to make your own.
Can you track me as of the day I entered the picks in instead of January 1st? Then I just miss the first 11 days of the year?
Fund title "Late to the Party"
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Mickelous wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:18 pm Can you track me as of the day I entered the picks in instead of January 1st? Then I just miss the first 11 days of the year?
Fund title "Late to the Party"
If it was an easy thing and didn’t disadvantage the other contestants, I would, but your case gets messy and that’s why we have deadlines. Sorry.
JBTX
Posts: 7373
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by JBTX »

Guess I missed the deadline. Forgot about it.
Mickelous
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:24 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mickelous »

Tanelorn wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:33 pm
Mickelous wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:18 pm Can you track me as of the day I entered the picks in instead of January 1st? Then I just miss the first 11 days of the year?
Fund title "Late to the Party"
If it was an easy thing and didn’t disadvantage the other contestants, I would, but your case gets messy and that’s why we have deadlines. Sorry.
I'll take a handicap? Total return -X%. Not a big deal its just a fun contest.
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9265
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

StormShadow wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:14 pm
Rick Ferri wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:01 pm East-West Fund

Short TSLA
Long GE

Third time's a charm! :wink:
Whoops! Sorry, didn’t realize we picked the same stocks! That’s crazy. 🤣
Based on my past performance, you may want to go long TSLA and short GE!

Rick
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9265
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

StormShadow wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:14 pm
Rick Ferri wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:01 pm East-West Fund

Short TSLA
Long GE

Third time's a charm! :wink:
Whoops! Sorry, didn’t realize we picked the same stocks! That’s crazy. 🤣
Based on my past performance, you may want to go long TSLA and short GE!

Rick
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
totality
Posts: 141
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by totality »

GME opened at $19.93 and closed at $31.40. Crazy stuff.

Thankfully for the GME shorts in the contest, there's nearly a year for this to play out...
CaptainSaver
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:44 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by CaptainSaver »

Tanelorn wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:55 pm
CaptainSaver wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:28 pm Fund Name: Monkey Dart Holdings LLC

Long:

LMST
BLDR
CCX
Sorry, Churchill Capital II (CCX) is a SPAC and those are not eligible for the Russell list until after they complete their deal as a new, more-real-than-they-were company rather than a blank check company with no operations. Feel free to choose a replacement 3rd long and/or add additional short picks if you wish.
I see, sorry for the mixup. I didn't catch it until two days after the deadline, so if possible I will just go long the two qualifying stocks I listed.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 9633
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante »

Tanelorn wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:55 am Tanelorn Capital: Better Lucky Than Good
Our concentrated portfolios are designed to debunk that myth that short selling is risky and remind potential investors that no matter how cheap a stock is, there is always 100% to be made on the way to zero.

Short:
CHK (now CHKAQ) - Chesapeake Energy Corp (last price $4.30)

Despite the 300% rise YTD for the stock, we are bearish on the prospects of this heavily indebted energy company and look forward to entering our short position at Monday's close. We know some may take issue with our unusual approach so we also offer a more diversified short-bias alternative portfolio for those seeking a more conservative approach to short selling:

Short:
REV - Revlon Inc
AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
EXPR - Express Inc

All that said, the market conditions for the past 9 months have been very very unfavorable to short selling and it's unclear this will change for 2021, so we have a fair bit less confidence in our short basket this year than in previous ones. We're still trying to forget last year's basket, although our main pick did great (sign of the times when +100% for your short didn't make it to the top 5 of the rankings). And a tip of our hat to the longs choosing MSTR as a crypto bet - not our style, but a respectable choice indeed.

Best of luck everyone and don't forget to post your picks and/or corrections by 4pm ET today.
Given Tanelorn's track record, RIP all of these companies. :twisted:
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6470
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

whodidntante wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:15 pm
Tanelorn wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:55 am Tanelorn Capital: Better Lucky Than Good
Our concentrated portfolios are designed to debunk that myth that short selling is risky and remind potential investors that no matter how cheap a stock is, there is always 100% to be made on the way to zero.

Short:
CHK (now CHKAQ) - Chesapeake Energy Corp (last price $4.30)

Despite the 300% rise YTD for the stock, we are bearish on the prospects of this heavily indebted energy company and look forward to entering our short position at Monday's close. We know some may take issue with our unusual approach so we also offer a more diversified short-bias alternative portfolio for those seeking a more conservative approach to short selling:

Short:
REV - Revlon Inc
AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
EXPR - Express Inc

All that said, the market conditions for the past 9 months have been very very unfavorable to short selling and it's unclear this will change for 2021, so we have a fair bit less confidence in our short basket this year than in previous ones. We're still trying to forget last year's basket, although our main pick did great (sign of the times when +100% for your short didn't make it to the top 5 of the rankings). And a tip of our hat to the longs choosing MSTR as a crypto bet - not our style, but a respectable choice indeed.

Best of luck everyone and don't forget to post your picks and/or corrections by 4pm ET today.
Given Tanelorn's track record, RIP all of these companies. :twisted:
Don’t look now, but Tanelorn is in first place right now, if I’m reading the table correctly.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Well the first week of the contest has past and we’ve already seen some big moves.

Tanelorn took first place with his short of the troubled Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ), currently down 33%. Chesapeake received a tentative approval for their ongoing bankruptcy process, but there are still appeals pending.

tiburblium is also off to a great start with a 17% gain for the first week with his sole long pick, Microstrategy (MSTR). This software and services company has made the controversial and so far well received decision to invest most of their spare corporate cash reserves in Bitcoin, and recently they even took out hundreds of millions in additional debt to buy even more. They currently hold over $1B in bitcoins and hence the stock is a volatile play on the success of that cryptocurrency.

aristotelian brings up 3rd place with a 15% gain on his sole long pick, Cryoport (CRYX), a firm that specializes in cold chain logistics and low temperature transports, and may benefit from the requirements of the massive vaccine rollouts planned in the US and abroad for some of the most effective covid vaccines.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

PS CaptainSaver - I removed your one ineligible pick and your entered with the rest of your choices.
PPS Stinky and whodidntante - thanks for the votes of confidence.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

It’s only been a few days now and already we have some of our first short selling casualties. GameStop (GME) is a troubled video game retailer who has seen their stock rise over 130% year to date and is up 97% since the start of our contest. Several portfolio managers selected GME as a short and it’s not going well for them... at least our contest doesn’t have margin calls.

Image
aristotelian
Posts: 8654
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian »

Tanelorn wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:05 pm It’s only been a few days now and already we have some of our first short selling casualties. GameStop (GME) is a troubled video game retailer who has seen their stock rise over 130% year to date and is up 97% since the start of our contest. Several portfolio managers selected GME as a short and it’s not going well for them... at least our contest doesn’t have margin calls.

Image
CYRX off to a good start, as is your CHKAQ short position. Can someone remind me why all my real money is in index funds?

Apparently a short seller is going to make a public call on GME on Thursday, hopefully to the relief of the contest bears.
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:54 pm
Tanelorn wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:05 pm It’s only been a few days now and already we have some of our first short selling casualties. GameStop (GME) is a troubled video game retailer who has seen their stock rise over 130% year to date and is up 97% since the start of our contest. Several portfolio managers selected GME as a short and it’s not going well for them... at least our contest doesn’t have margin calls.

Image
CYRX off to a good start, as is your CHKAQ short position. Can someone remind me why all my real money is in index funds?

Apparently a short seller is going to make a public call on GME on Thursday, hopefully to the relief of the contest bears.

My shorts are doing "better" than my longs right now. The year is young!

Going Solo-stock is really the best way to "win" this, isn't it.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
aristotelian
Posts: 8654
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:15 pm
Going Solo-stock is really the best way to "win" this, isn't it.
No risk, no reward!
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:17 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:15 pm
Going Solo-stock is really the best way to "win" this, isn't it.
No risk, no reward!
I think it's easier because 6 increase odds of reverting to the mean of average returns.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
Vanguard Fan 1367
Posts: 1906
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:09 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:51 pm MinnGuyInvesting wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:15 pm

Going Solo-stock is really the best way to "win" this, isn't it.
I have read that in another thread. This year I did just that and am pretty close to last place. But the year is still young. :happy
Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

aristotelian wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:54 pm CYRX off to a good start, as is your CHKAQ short position. Can someone remind me why all my real money is in index funds?

Apparently a short seller is going to make a public call on GME on Thursday, hopefully to the relief of the contest bears.
Don’t look now, but CYRX just sold a bunch more shares at a 10% discount to market, so the price and future appreciation prospects may be muted.

As for GME, a prominent short selling firm, Citron Research, has put out a price target of about half the current price. They were supposed to talk about why midday today, but oddly decided not to “distract from the inauguration” and will do it tomorrow presumably. Not like anyone could have missed that there was going to be an inauguration today...
aristotelian
Posts: 8654
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian »

Tanelorn wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:22 pm
aristotelian wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:54 pm CYRX off to a good start, as is your CHKAQ short position. Can someone remind me why all my real money is in index funds?

Apparently a short seller is going to make a public call on GME on Thursday, hopefully to the relief of the contest bears.
Don’t look now, but CYRX just sold a bunch more shares at a 10% discount to market, so the price and future appreciation prospects may be muted.
Looks like the market had it priced efficiently, or at least it thinks so. Up 2% after dropping below the public offering price. CHKAQ up 25% [EDIT] 40% today. I can't imagine what's going on there.
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

aristotelian wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:49 pm
Tanelorn wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:22 pm Don’t look now, but CYRX just sold a bunch more shares at a 10% discount to market, so the price and future appreciation prospects may be muted.
Looks like the market had it priced efficiently, or at least it thinks so. Up 2% after dropping below the public offering price. CHKAQ up 25% [EDIT] 40% today. I can't imagine what's going on there.
CYRX - yeah, seems so.
CHKAQ - shorts getting forced buy-ins I believe. this can happen if the shares can no longer be borrowed (even at a high price).
GME - here's that Citron negative take on the stock.
User avatar
mokaThought
Posts: 288
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:57 pm
Location: Texas
Contact:

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by mokaThought »

Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
70% stocks — 63% US TSM (VTI, 401k funds); 27% ex-US (IDEV, EMXC, FRDM); 10% REIT (FREL) | 30% bonds — TSP G Fund, TSP F Fund. Too conservative? It's my emergency fund. USN 2007–2014.
Alchemist
Posts: 584
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:35 am

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Alchemist »

mokaThought wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:46 pm Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
Me.....my fund is now in a very distant last place with negative 113% return :oops:

Thankfully this is why it’s index funds only for my real portfolio :P
Vanguard Fan 1367
Posts: 1906
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:09 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Alchemist wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:10 pm
mokaThought wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:46 pm Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
Me.....my fund is now in a very distant last place with negative 113% return :oops:

Thankfully this is why it’s index funds only for my real portfolio :P
The great Peter Lynch suggests not shorting stocks. I am glad you stick to index funds in real life! :sharebeer
Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 9633
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante »

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:02 pm I am glad you stick to index funds in real life! :sharebeer
Let's not be presumptuous. :P
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

whodidntante wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:14 pm Let's not be presumptuous. :P
Right, a diversified portfolio is important. That’s why I split my money between TSLA $1000 calls and GME $100’s ;)

Image
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

mokaThought wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:46 pm Okay...who shorted GameStop? Fess up.
Don’t look now, wait for the open so the spreadsheet updates the GME prices. It was over $130 premarket, doubling again from prior close.

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest
Topic Author
Tanelorn
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Looking like 2020 all over again. There are already 3 picks up over 100% - VIR, AMC, and GME up over 600% (and higher in the after hours too).
Post Reply