U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 15671
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6383
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:42 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I regard Forester’s advice as a contra-indicator.

If he said to turn left, I would turn right.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 15671
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:42 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I'm not sure I understand... You don't think it's a good investment philosophy to watch the stock market daily, you don't even think it's HEALTHY to watch the stock market daily.

Yet you take this thread seriously and watch it daily... :confused
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Looks like U.S. ETFs VTI, VONE, ITOT, IJR, IWM and RSP soared enough today to give me an ATH. :beer
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:57 pm Looks like U.S. ETFs VTI, VONE, ITOT, IJR, IWM and RSP soared enough today to give me an ATH. :beer
Congrats!
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:18 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:57 pm Looks like U.S. ETFs VTI, VONE, ITOT, IJR, IWM and RSP soared enough today to give me an ATH. :beer
Congrats!
It was a pleasant surprise.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
stocknoob4111
Posts: 1705
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

ATHs for me too due to Small Caps and International
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 10519
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Stinky wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:48 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:42 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I regard Forester’s advice as a contra-indicator.

If he said to turn left, I would turn right.
You're framing it wrong, Forester's calls are highly uncorrelated with the market, which gives them a "diversification benefit"
If he was running a hedge fund he'd be raking in the $$$ (in fees, not from investments)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:15 pm ATHs for me too due to Small Caps and International
Likewise, due to SC, MC, plus EM and International. My number is still off in the distance, but it's becoming visible....
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23020
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

I am backing up my truck soon and filling up the cargo bay!

Blastoff!

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
CurlyDave
Posts: 2246
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 10519
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6383
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
I’m happy with any amount of market movement upward -

Especially when we’re within 1% of ATH.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
CurlyDave
Posts: 2246
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
If we take 250 trading days per year, and set a target of 15% yearly growth 1.15^0.004 = 1.00056. This means that any day the market is open an increase of more than 0.056% is better than the daily CAGR necessary to get +15% on the whole year.

But I consider 0.056% more like playing hopscotch than soaring...
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 15671
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:08 amset a target of 15% yearly growth
:shock:

Someone has been spoiled for the past 10 years.

Probably shouldn't count on that happening forever.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 22562
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:11 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:42 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:23 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I'm not sure I understand... You don't think it's a good investment philosophy to watch the stock market daily, you don't even think it's HEALTHY to watch the stock market daily.

Yet you take this thread seriously and watch it daily... :confused
It's more entertaining than most of what's on television these days. :P
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
CurlyDave
Posts: 2246
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:45 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:08 amset a target of 15% yearly growth
:shock:

Someone has been spoiled for the past 10 years.

Probably shouldn't count on that happening forever.
True on both accounts. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

And it has been a great ride.
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
User avatar
dogagility
Posts: 1284
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:41 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
I think of this thread as the "BH optimists chat room". No activation needed apparently.

And as my contribution of substance :D , I'm happy to see another forecast by Forester! :moneybag
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Forester wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
If we remove the Bitcoin gibberish, you have just repeated more of less the consensus view on CNBC or basically anytime we have had a big market move. Great insight.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Forester wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
Let's see if the Forester affect will ring true again.
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6383
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:35 am Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
The plane has now reached cruising altitude.

Soaring is continuing.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
ksualum
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:01 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ksualum »

I think of this thread as the "BH optimists chat room". No activation needed apparently.

And as my contribution of substance :D , I'm happy to see another forecast by Forester! :moneybag

I agree! I think being an optimist is the best (can't really be beat IMO)

As Churchill stated: “For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use to be anything else.”

and: "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."

As for the 2nd quote, if stock prices decline, I re-balance. It is a win/win either way! :sharebeer
Last edited by ksualum on Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cautionary Tale
Posts: 65
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cautionary Tale »

Finally made Roth contribution this morning. Brace for 10-15% correction. Market timers-prepare to sell.
rchmx1
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:45 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:08 amset a target of 15% yearly growth
:shock:

Someone has been spoiled for the past 10 years.

Probably shouldn't count on that happening forever.
but but but stonks always go uuuup :confused
Broken Man 1999
Posts: 5592
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:31 am
Location: West coast of Florida, inland on high ground!

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

If the markets go up enough, I will rebalance.

If the markets go down enough, I will rebalance.

Easy to do, and I will continue to do my rebalancing as needed. It takes but a moment to do. Even a slothful person such as I am should find rebalancing easy to do.

The only thing in my unwritten IPS is rebalancing.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 6091
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:03 pm
Forester wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
Let's see if the Forester affect will ring true again.
Big market increase forthcoming by February 28!
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:16 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:35 am Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
The plane has now reached cruising altitude.

Soaring is continuing.
Back to null.
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
ksualum
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:01 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ksualum »

Cautionary Tale wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:04 pm Finally made Roth contribution this morning. Brace for 10-15% correction. Market timers-prepare to sell.
Haha! I did the same thing yesterday. I was waiting for a colossal downturn. Luckily so far it has not manifested itself . . . .
H-Town
Posts: 3180
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

ksualum wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm
Cautionary Tale wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:04 pm Finally made Roth contribution this morning. Brace for 10-15% correction. Market timers-prepare to sell.
Haha! I did the same thing yesterday. I was waiting for a colossal downturn. Luckily so far it has not manifested itself . . . .
Not sure if it helps, but my Roth contribution 5 years ago double in value and then some. You gotta zoom out to see the entire forest instead of the trees.

Time in market > market timing.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6383
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:35 am Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
Today’s open is a little better soaring than yesterday.

Well above the tree line.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
CurlyDave
Posts: 2246
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:40 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:35 am Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
Today’s open is a little better soaring than yesterday.

Well above the tree line.
I slept in out here on the left coast and woke up to a very nice soar. It will get even nicer when the coffee finishes brewing.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 6383
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:39 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:40 am
CurlyDave wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:35 am Opening bell soaring is at a very low level today.

Barely clearing the trees at the end of the runway.
Today’s open is a little better soaring than yesterday.

Well above the tree line.
I slept in out here on the left coast and woke up to a very nice soar. It will get even nicer when the coffee finishes brewing.
New intra day highs on Dow and Nasdaq.

S&P isn’t far behind.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
User avatar
Forester
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:23 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Most of my stocks are low vol. If I compare my portfolio to global market cap, I calculate (humbly) I have the upside of a 75/25 aggressive portfolio and the downside of a 55/45 balanced portfolio. I will be grateful for that.

Justification for being bearish US stocks; holding a global portfolio likely only around 10% of those expensive S&P 500 high flyers.
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3679
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:23 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Don't pay attention to what people say. Pay attention to what they do.
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:43 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:23 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Don't pay attention to what people say. Pay attention to what they do.
Unfortunately we don't always know what they are doing, just what they are saying.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 15671
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
So even YOU didn't believe anything you've written over the past few months?

You're just de-risking today? And only down to 65% stocks. So you're not so certain after all. Stop posting like you're certain.

That's all I ask.

"I think this may happen", instead of "This will happen".
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 10519
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am... Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Maybe, I expect sooner or later there will be another dip. It's served me pretty well doing absolutely nothing.
I personally know someone who had got out last January and was telling others to as well, I ignored him, and was "looking very foolish" for awhile there, but I couldn't tell the difference between the reason to panic then relative to every other time someone decries the sky falling, and I knew there wouldn't be a bell ringing to advise me when to get back in, and I knew there wasn't something else in mind I had planned to spend the money on soon, or would rather have it invested in...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
H-Town
Posts: 3180
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors :mrgreen: Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
CurlyDave
Posts: 2246
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

H-Town wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors :mrgreen: Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.

One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1566
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:29 am
H-Town wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors :mrgreen: Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.

One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
Mmm...starting from 1998 100/0 trailed 50/50 until 2017 after Dot Bomb...that's a couple years worth of irrational exuberance to cushion the fall and it didn't for a long time.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion2_2=50
User avatar
dogagility
Posts: 1284
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:41 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Morris Albert wrote a song about this. Here's the opening phrase: "Feelings, nothing more than feelings"

On a more serious note, you seem to advocate market timing and short-term thinking regarding portfolio construction. Not exactly BH investing principles, to say the least.

And now back to our thread... US stocks continue to soar! :moneybag
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
Admiral
Posts: 3184
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Admiral »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:29 am
H-Town wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:55 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors :mrgreen: Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.

One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
Yes, your crystal ball predicts the past very well. :? I agree, however, that for SOME investors it is a fine strategy. It is a very risky strategy for MANY investors: such as those who are retired; are about to retire; are 5 years from retiring; are very old and need to preserve capital; have all they need and thus have no need for market risk; and probably a few other segments of the population.

If you've got lots of years and an iron stomach, then 100/0 is likely fine. Many don't have either, even fewer have both.
lostdog
Posts: 3581
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Forester affect alert!

Since he took action, now we'll really be soaring for awhile. :twisted: :moneybag
Brokerage: VTI+VXUS || Retirement: VTWAX || Short-Term: Cash+BSV || 33x Expenses
Admiral
Posts: 3184
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Admiral »

lostdog wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:00 pm Forester affect alert!

Since he took action, now we'll really be soaring for awhile. :twisted: :moneybag
Well, you know, eventually he will be right. It's called the stopped-clock effect. :D
000
Posts: 4048
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am
Location: Ursa Minor

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
What kind of bonds?
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:57 pm Looks like U.S. ETFs VTI, VONE, ITOT, IJR, IWM and RSP soared enough today to give me an ATH. :beer
IJR, IWM and RSP soared enough today to give me an up day.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Post Reply