TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I'm not sure I understand... You don't think it's a good investment philosophy to watch the stock market daily, you don't even think it's HEALTHY to watch the stock market daily.
Yet you take this thread seriously and watch it daily...
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I regard Forester’s advice as a contra-indicator.
If he said to turn left, I would turn right.
You're framing it wrong, Forester's calls are highly uncorrelated with the market, which gives them a "diversification benefit"
If he was running a hedge fund he'd be raking in the $$$ (in fees, not from investments)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am
I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
I’m happy with any amount of market movement upward -
JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am
I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
If we take 250 trading days per year, and set a target of 15% yearly growth 1.15^0.004 = 1.00056. This means that any day the market is open an increase of more than 0.056% is better than the daily CAGR necessary to get +15% on the whole year.
But I consider 0.056% more like playing hopscotch than soaring...
CurlyDave wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:08 amset a target of 15% yearly growth
Someone has been spoiled for the past 10 years.
Probably shouldn't count on that happening forever.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:51 amit seems like some people want to believe equity investment is some sort of a free lunch. It is rather shocking to see this play out over and over again in a buy and hold community of investors.
This thread causes a lot of that. Most Boglehead threads do focus on the long-term. I agree there are a lot of posters who don't seem to get the whole "buy and hold" (and you don't need to look every 5 minutes) philosophy.
I get some people have some large gains they want to protect, then change your AA and move on. There is always something the market is worried and eventually something always goes wrong badly, but I don't think it is healthy or good investment philosophy to focus on it daily. But that is just one flawed individual's opinion.
I agree with you 100% here, which is why I tell people not to take this thread and the free-falling thread too seriously.
And I take these threads seriously for just that reason. Now I am saying the threads not the advice on the threads, except Forester whose track record makes him a must read.
I'm not sure I understand... You don't think it's a good investment philosophy to watch the stock market daily, you don't even think it's HEALTHY to watch the stock market daily.
Yet you take this thread seriously and watch it daily...
It's more entertaining than most of what's on television these days.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:51 am
I am disappointed by what's considered enough of a "soar" to activate this thread, but at least there is some place we can use as an outlet for the general market condition
I think of this thread as the "BH optimists chat room". No activation needed apparently.
And as my contribution of substance , I'm happy to see another forecast by Forester!
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
Forester wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm
Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
If we remove the Bitcoin gibberish, you have just repeated more of less the consensus view on CNBC or basically anytime we have had a big market move. Great insight.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Forester wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm
Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
Let's see if the Forester affect will ring true again.
Easy to do, and I will continue to do my rebalancing as needed. It takes but a moment to do. Even a slothful person such as I am should find rebalancing easy to do.
The only thing in my unwritten IPS is rebalancing.
Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain
Forester wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:14 pm
Based on the recent Bitcoin price action and its track record as a speculative asset correlated to megacap growth, I am fully anticipating a 15% stock market correction by February 28.
Let's see if the Forester affect will ring true again.
Cautionary Tale wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:04 pm
Finally made Roth contribution this morning. Brace for 10-15% correction. Market timers-prepare to sell.
Haha! I did the same thing yesterday. I was waiting for a colossal downturn. Luckily so far it has not manifested itself . . . .
Cautionary Tale wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:04 pm
Finally made Roth contribution this morning. Brace for 10-15% correction. Market timers-prepare to sell.
Haha! I did the same thing yesterday. I was waiting for a colossal downturn. Luckily so far it has not manifested itself . . . .
Not sure if it helps, but my Roth contribution 5 years ago double in value and then some. You gotta zoom out to see the entire forest instead of the trees.
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Most of my stocks are low vol. If I compare my portfolio to global market cap, I calculate (humbly) I have the upside of a 75/25 aggressive portfolio and the downside of a 55/45 balanced portfolio. I will be grateful for that.
Justification for being bearish US stocks; holding a global portfolio likely only around 10% of those expensive S&P 500 high flyers.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Don't pay attention to what people say. Pay attention to what they do.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
A super bear holding 65% stocks is a tad unusual. You have been posting about a crash for a while so why have you waited until now to de-risk? Why have you been posting things you weren't acting on? How has that been helpful for people who came here looking to advice and to understand the markets?
Don't pay attention to what people say. Pay attention to what they do.
Unfortunately we don't always know what they are doing, just what they are saying.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
So even YOU didn't believe anything you've written over the past few months?
You're just de-risking today? And only down to 65% stocks. So you're not so certain after all. Stop posting like you're certain.
That's all I ask.
"I think this may happen", instead of "This will happen".
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am... Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Maybe, I expect sooner or later there will be another dip. It's served me pretty well doing absolutely nothing.
I personally know someone who had got out last January and was telling others to as well, I ignored him, and was "looking very foolish" for awhile there, but I couldn't tell the difference between the reason to panic then relative to every other time someone decries the sky falling, and I knew there wouldn't be a bell ringing to advise me when to get back in, and I knew there wasn't something else in mind I had planned to spend the money on soon, or would rather have it invested in...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.
One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.
One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
Mmm...starting from 1998 100/0 trailed 50/50 until 2017 after Dot Bomb...that's a couple years worth of irrational exuberance to cushion the fall and it didn't for a long time.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Morris Albert wrote a song about this. Here's the opening phrase: "Feelings, nothing more than feelings"
On a more serious note, you seem to advocate market timing and short-term thinking regarding portfolio construction. Not exactly BH investing principles, to say the least.
And now back to our thread... US stocks continue to soar!
All children spill milk. Learn to smile and wipe it up. -- A Farmer's Wife
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
Now Forester is coming after 100% stocks investors Speaking about going after low hanging fruit.
The Curly Family Portfolio was 100% stocks from 1973 to 2018. Reading Bogleheads convinced me that we need to have some bonds so I moved to 80 stocks/20 bonds. We would have been better off to stay 100% stocks.
One of the things we seem to ignore is that if one starts and stays 100% stocks, a few years into it, even a steep downturn will still leave the 100% stock portfolio ahead in dollar terms. Sure, the rollercoaster ride can be thrilling, but if you can hold on through that it is not a bad strategy.
Yes, your crystal ball predicts the past very well. I agree, however, that for SOME investors it is a fine strategy. It is a very risky strategy for MANY investors: such as those who are retired; are about to retire; are 5 years from retiring; are very old and need to preserve capital; have all they need and thus have no need for market risk; and probably a few other segments of the population.
If you've got lots of years and an iron stomach, then 100/0 is likely fine. Many don't have either, even fewer have both.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am
I just spent the last hour de-risking my portfolio. 65% stocks, 35% gold & bonds. Who is to say the next market meltdown won't be 60%+ instead of 50% as in the GFC, and it may not bounce back so quickly. Investors who are 100% stocks will be looking very foolish this year.
, I'm happy to see another forecast by Forester! 
I agree, however, that for SOME investors it is a fine strategy. It is a very risky strategy for MANY investors: such as those who are retired; are about to retire; are 5 years from retiring; are very old and need to preserve capital; have all they need and thus have no need for market risk; and probably a few other segments of the population.