Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

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framus
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by framus »

I'm often overwhelmed by FOMO.

During those times I exorcise the demon by utilizing on-line betting forums. :moneybag

Otherwise I try maintain my standing as a consecrated Boglehead and stay the course.

-Framus
fingoals
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by fingoals »

HopeToGolf wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:22 am The real question is when to sell. ...
Understandably, this came up quite often in this thread and continues to come up often in other relevant threads. What I don't understand, though, is why I'm not seeing on this forum any opinions and/or references to relevant publications (in research, industry or even popular press) focused on solutions or, at least, attempts to solve this problem from the game theory and optimization theory (aka operations research).

In my opinion, investing is a massive (in terms of actors), multi-scale (in terms of micro to macro forces) and multi-dimensional (in terms of multiple asset classes, instruments and strategies) game. If this assumption is correct, the next question is: can we apply a large and well-developed body of knowledge and relevant approaches from the above-mentioned domains to the [individual position-focused] "optimal exit" problem (I guess, it is a sub-problem of the larger optimal portfolio management domain, but this is beyond the scope) and, if yes, how exactly?

I would love to hear your opinions and/or see references to the best resources on the relevant game-theoretic and optimization-theoretic perspectives
(I would argue that the "massiveness", i.e. actor scale, aspect could / should be ignored to dramatically simplify modeling).
Last edited by fingoals on Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
bck63
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by bck63 »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:03 am OP,

No. I have enough. I only need a 5% nominal return. I had far exceeded my goal. I do not need to gamble.

What is your number? What is the return rate that you need to reach your goal? If you have enough, why should you care to gamble?


KlangFool
1-2% nominal and I will be fine.
james22
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by james22 »

freyj6 wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:48 pmPeople who poured 50k into value and international stocks in March and April did a lot better than people who put $1000 into bitcoin.
This.

Sizing Matters!
manatee2005
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by manatee2005 »

backofbeyond wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:08 am
langlands wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:34 pm
manatee2005 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:04 am
manatee2005 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:25 am

If you only bought 1000 coins when it was in the tens of dollars you'd have $40 million now.
No, he'd more likely have sold them when they were in the 20s or 30s of dollars and have $20-30,000.

That's why missing out doesn't bother me and it shouldn't bother anybody suffering from FOMO (God, I hate that term).

What makes you think you'd hold onto something after a 100% or 200% run up that you were extremely hesitant to invest in to begin with?

So let's say absolute best case scenario, you take 5% of your $1 million pottfolio, make 100%, and sell. Because you've made your money, you won on your bet. Whew! You can breathe now!

Now you've got $1,050,000. Fantastic, but not life altering for anybody to add 5%.

Weeks go by and the itch happens again. You take $50k and then lose half. Well, hopefully you've learned your lesson. But let's say you get greedy and try again. Same thing. Yie back to your $1 million and you're not happy because you anchored to the $1,050,000. You try again, this time dipping into your original million and you lose again.

Rinse and repeat until you do learn your lesson.
I speak from experience, I held through 1000% plus TSLA gain and I didn't sell.
Something about the Boglehead psychology makes people unable to understand that it's possible to buy and hold individual securities. Strangely, they think the only two possibilities are buy and hold index funds or trade individual stocks like a coked out Robinhooder.

I think there's a certain amount of projection going along. A lot of BHers are actually very emotional investors and need to repeat the mantra to themselves to keep on track. So they can't imagine that others might invest in individual stocks for the long term and will hold through 10x gains of companies they believe in without batting an eye. All investors should do what works to achieve their goals, but everyone's psychological makeup is different.
+1000

I actually spit out my morning coffee while reading this! Couldn't agree more. Not sure if it's a case of sour grapes or what?

I have 60% of my portfolio in total market Index funds (combo of TSP C, S & I). The other 40%, I invest in a combo of specialized ETFs and individual stocks. As I reported a year ago, I had hit critical mass, which in my mind, means my contributions to TSP and Roth IRAs, no longer moved the needle. So I decided to swing for the fences, you know that "ability" part of being able to take risks? When COVID hit, and the market crashed, I invested in 250 individual stocks with my 40%. I dollar cost average down, that is with each 5% decrease in prices, I bought more. Once the market bottomed in late March, I stopped buying, any stock from that point on that lost +20%, I sold. Of the 250 stocks, 113 have gained triple digits (as in over 100%), all the rest have above S&P500 gains for the same time period. Some of you will no doubt ask, when do you plan to sell. With those kind of gains, I could hold on for many years until I would have equaled the S&P 500 returns, plus, many are well known stocks: Wendys, Marriott, Boeing etc

Of those 113, they include both Tesla and crypto miner stocks (RIOT, MARA, HVBTF, DMGGF). Being skeptical myself, I bought one share of Tesla (which is now 5) and also bought 1/2 of 1% of my portfolio in the crypto stocks. Tesla is up 960%, but amounts to around 1/4 of 1% of my portfolio, however the crypto's have skyrocket to 8% of my portfolio (again from just 1/2 of 1%). The best part is almost all of these are located in a Roth account, so tax free Capital Gains. And again, the only time I plan on selling is if the holding drops down 20% from my original buy. I'm also a realist, I know that all of these are highly speculative, and therefore could drop like a rock at anytime, but am willing (and more importantly, able) to take this risk.

Like you said, you can do a middle of the road approach, do indexing and individual stocks, and profit rather handsomely.
Same here, I recognized that tech will eat everyone's lunch cos of WFH and invested accordingly. It's a once in 10 years chance to get several years of returns in one. I think it was risky NOT to rebalance into tech.
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Clever_Username
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Clever_Username »

There are plenty of video games I can play if I want to try for high score, where the risks that result in less-high score are not an issue in my life.

Yeah, it'd be nice if I made a quick 300% profit on something. That'd be pretty cool and something to talk about. As it is, I have mentioned to some people making a five-figure VTSAX purchase in early April of 2020. I leave off the part where it's what I was supposed to do via my IPS. But unlike the video game, it isn't worth taking some risk to have some chance at geting a quick profit. I believe it is likely that I have more than enough by the time I need it even without these side ventures. Boring stocks and bond funds (plus some savings bonds) work fine for me.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_ | | I survived my first downturn and all I got was this signature line.
anoop
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by anoop »

My only FOMO is that there are no fixed income investments that keep up with inflation, so I'm seeing the purchasing power of my money wither away.

As far as BTC and TSLA or any of the new hot stocks of companies that have negative earnings and >= 3 digit PEs, I have zero FOMO because those are way beyond my risk tolerance levels.

This is an interested read of how robinhood works.
https://twitter.com/petershk/status/1344286419380916228
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ChowYunPhat
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by ChowYunPhat »

neb2020 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:08 am Maybe I need some BH therapy or support group.

Do you have FOMO on not chasing the latest shiny coin that worked out so well? Bitcoin? TSLA? I'm not saying dump your entire portfolio, but even with my play money I did not invest/speculate in Bitcoin and TSLA. I did play with commodity funds and got eaten up alive by Contango, so the only 1 rebellious streak ended up with 0% growth (approx). Yet, we have noobs getting rich off Bitcoin and TSLA.

Do you have FOMO? Be honest. I admit I have some FOMO. I thought of buying Bitcoin back in 2019 when it was $5k-ish but dragged my feet because of implementation issues. A friend told me about hot TSLA stock, but I ignored it. I hate to say it but if I had got into Bitcoin or TSLA with my play money (5% portfolio) even 5 years back, I may have doubled my portfolio today. I've been a good BH and my returns have suffered as a result. How do you deal with the guilt and FOMO?
Neb2020, this is a great way to ask the question on owning individual stocks, bonds, and alternatives. I've owned several different stocks over my 20 year investing career, some came as compensation with a mandated holding period and a couple of times I speculated on company stocks within my chosen industry. I did OK a couple of times, and I did poorly a couple of times. For me it was a lesson learned.

My biggest takeaway owning individual securities was the impact to my focus. Part of my attention was dedicated to monitoring these stocks and studying the underlying assets in ways that I don't do (or need to do) with diversified index funds. The amount of single-asset money invested was not great relative to the overall index fund portfolio, and there I was dedicating 10x as much time thinking about and studying the individual securities.

I probably needed to experience owning these assets to understand how it would impact me psychologically and behaviorally. This wasn't a part of the initial motivation (I was just trying to chase an outsized return), but in hindsight this was the most important learning. Adding Bitcoin and other crypto assets to the portfolio might be a good investment. But if I consider the likely impact on me personally, given it's an asset I can't value and don't understand, it's probably not something worth pursuing.

It looks like you're getting a nice response thus far, well done. Cheers.
A wise man and his money are friends forever...
Register44
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Register44 »

:arrow:
Last edited by Register44 on Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tim1999
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by tim1999 »

Bitcoin back down to around 30,600, down another ~ 4,700 today.

Image
MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Oh...
Someone help me!

My bitcoin is going down today.

If only I had listened!

:shock: :confused
Index ETF's 41% | ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% | Other individual stocks 3% | Bitcoin / ETH 4%
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corn18
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by corn18 »

I have a fear of being part of an unexplainable 20% drop in my BTC.
Don't do something, just stand there!
manatee2005
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by manatee2005 »

corn18 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:01 pm I have a fear of being part of an unexplainable 20% drop in my BTC.
It’s not unexplainable.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Prahasaurus »

tim1999 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:48 am Bitcoin back down to around 30,600, down another ~ 4,700 today.

Image
RemindMe! 5 years
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Valuethinker
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Valuethinker »

neb2020 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:08 am Maybe I need some BH therapy or support group.

Do you have FOMO on not chasing the latest shiny coin that worked out so well? Bitcoin? TSLA? I'm not saying dump your entire portfolio, but even with my play money I did not invest/speculate in Bitcoin and TSLA. I did play with commodity funds and got eaten up alive by Contango, so the only 1 rebellious streak ended up with 0% growth (approx). Yet, we have noobs getting rich off Bitcoin and TSLA.

Do you have FOMO? Be honest. I admit I have some FOMO. I thought of buying Bitcoin back in 2019 when it was $5k-ish but dragged my feet because of implementation issues. A friend told me about hot TSLA stock, but I ignored it. I hate to say it but if I had got into Bitcoin or TSLA with my play money (5% portfolio) even 5 years back, I may have doubled my portfolio today. I've been a good BH and my returns have suffered as a result. How do you deal with the guilt and FOMO?
When you lose a million or so when the next dot com bubble collapse comes (as well as losing your job after 9-11) then this will seem as nothing.

What you will FOMO then will be a job and a steady 15% of your pay into an index fund.
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Valuethinker »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:25 am
ccf wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:57 am I had a series of wins in 2020. Not life changing, but I did shave 2 years off of my retirement date.

All of the winning made me feel like I could keep winning.

A whole lot of other people feel the same exact way, the things that everyone thinks are going to pay off for them are all the same things, and the breathless "X is a sure thing" posts are only increasing.

Now the excitement has warn off and I feel like I've come back down to earth. I very much want to retreat to safety. If I could snap my fingers and be back in an entirely Boglehead portfolio, like I was in 2019 and every year before that, without paying 35% in short term gains I'd do it immediately.

I keep thinking of Cisco in 2000. Everyone knew it was a sure thing. You couldn't lose. It was essential internet infrastructure and the internet was obviously only going to get bigger.



Image

Can you flavor the stock run of Cisco more? What were the bull bear arguments, who had them? How does it compare to Tesla today? What were analysts saying? What were technicals like?
There's almost no comparison.

Cisco was highly profitable and growing at double digits. Market domination in its product range. Highly acquisitive so unlikely to be blindsided by new technology.

By comparison Tesla is a small player in highly competitive markets, with no (apparent) compelling market lead. Lots of strange dealings with a maniac founder.
What if one were to keep Cisco in their minds to serve as an anchoring bias against any future out performance?
You can be right about the secular trend, but not right about winners & losers.

Would it not be better to anchor something on the other side, something like a Netflix or an apple?

If one thinks we are in a Cisco 2000 period, shouldn’t they sell everything and hide for a while?
I consider it from time to time. But "the market can remain irrational for much longer than you can remain solvent".

I am not sure how Netflix or Apple is an "anchor" to Cisco. Netflix is an interesting beast to be sure -they have driven up the price of their own input, via the huge commissioning budget. A lot of debt. If they stumble, they will fall a long way.

Apple is strikingly conservatively managed. That may, in time, be their downfall-- this is a technology company. If their customers come to love them less. How many iPhones does the world need?
There are some very bright people that have called for a bog move up in Tesla and btc for a while. Some call for higher.
Good people on both sides. Opinions differ.
Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

000 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 am No, but I do have ROMO: Regret Over Missing Out. I actually thought about buying TSLA early in 2020 before its great run. There are other examples, sadly. I've learned that when I spot an opportunity I need to move quickly rather than waiting for a great price.
I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
raiderG
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by raiderG »

Howard Marks itself (which mostly presented the bear case) is on TESLA now.
https://youtu.be/Er3Ip6F6YpA

If that is no evidence that "value" is found everywhere, no one is. :moneybag
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Jags4186 »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:10 am Apple is strikingly conservatively managed. That may, in time, be their downfall-- this is a technology company. If their customers come to love them less. How many iPhones does the world need?
Apple is likely in the top 10 companies in the world for R&D spend. Could it be that they aren’t conservative, they just have more cash than they know what to do with? And that, in it of itself, is a problem.
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by secondopinion »

Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)
Yes, but I have a stronger FOMU (fear of messing up). I want to have money in the future; I missed massive riches, but I gladly missed broke.
It is better to be half-wrong than have a 50% chance of being all-wrong. With the former, you will learn and have money to try again. Otherwise, you will never learn and will have nothing eventually.
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by BrooklynInvest »

On occasion. More like a daydream than actual angst. But I have a simple mantra whenever I think I've missed a hot stock -

peeeeeetsdooooootttttcooooooom
peeeeeetsdooooootttttcooooooom
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orcycle
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by orcycle »

I sold some AAPL to buy GBTC (I didn't want to own Bitcoin directly, seemed too complicated) in late 2017 in my Roth brokerage after all the hubbub that year. It climbed some more before it fell hard. I ignored it for a couple years until this year, when it climbed up and more than doubled from my purchase price.

I compared what AAPL did during that same time period and it returned more than 300% when including reinvested dividends, or more than double what GBTC did. So that was a helpful exercise to remind me not to get too caught up in short-term rallies. I still reinvest my AAPL dividends and I'm going to hold onto my GBTC for now.
rchmx1
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by rchmx1 »

I really don't experience FOMO, but I do experience market timing fantasies along with benefit of hindsight type situations. But I don't view the latter two experiences as offering any actionable insight, so they're pretty easy to ignore.
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timboktoo
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by timboktoo »

I don't really have FOMO with TSLA or Bitcoin. I do feel like I was underinvested in US equities from 2010-2020 and that kind of hurts, but I developed a plan and I stayed the course. Besides, the goal isn't outperformance. The goal is that thing I see in the distance, just beyond the horizon. As long as I keep putting one foot in front of the other and don't get distracted by the other shiny things off to the sides, I'll accomplish what I set out to do when I began investing.

In my opinion, these kinds of things aren't knowable. It's kind of like winning the lottery.

If you do fear missing out, figure out what's driving that. Keep asking yourself "why?" until you get to the root.

- Tim
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by 000 »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm
000 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 am No, but I do have ROMO: Regret Over Missing Out. I actually thought about buying TSLA early in 2020 before its great run. There are other examples, sadly. I've learned that when I spot an opportunity I need to move quickly rather than waiting for a great price.
I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
Yeah, I was about to pull the trigger on TSLA and then thought "meh, I bet we'll see a better entry point soon". :oops:

Anyway, you still think TSLA's a buy now?
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by firebirdparts »

BrooklynInvest wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:21 pm On occasion. More like a daydream than actual angst. But I have a simple mantra whenever I think I've missed a hot stock -

peeeeeetsdooooootttttcooooooom
peeeeeetsdooooootttttcooooooom
Image
A fool and your money are soon partners
Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

000 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:01 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm
000 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 am No, but I do have ROMO: Regret Over Missing Out. I actually thought about buying TSLA early in 2020 before its great run. There are other examples, sadly. I've learned that when I spot an opportunity I need to move quickly rather than waiting for a great price.
I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
Yeah, I was about to pull the trigger on TSLA and then thought "meh, I bet we'll see a better entry point soon". :oops:

Anyway, you still think TSLA's a buy now?
I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by 000 »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
Thanks. I think I'll continue on my current course of staying out of Tesla (except what's in the index). I've already filled my appetite for individual stocks for now with other companies I believe in.
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by dru808 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:54 am Oh...
Someone help me!

My bitcoin is going down today.

If only I had listened!

:shock: :confused
I’m selling all my Bitcoin. Down for what 4 days? I just bought on Saturday. Screw this ponzi scheme.





:mrgreen: :dollar To the 🌙
..........
MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

dru808 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:54 am Oh...
Someone help me!

My bitcoin is going down today.

If only I had listened!

:shock: :confused
I’m selling all my Bitcoin. Down for what 4 days? I just bought on Saturday. Screw this ponzi scheme.





:mrgreen: :dollar To the 🌙
Get out while the price is low, (but not too low).
I think that's how these things work.
:D
Index ETF's 41% | ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% | Other individual stocks 3% | Bitcoin / ETH 4%
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by angelescrest »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm
000 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:01 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm
000 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 am No, but I do have ROMO: Regret Over Missing Out. I actually thought about buying TSLA early in 2020 before its great run. There are other examples, sadly. I've learned that when I spot an opportunity I need to move quickly rather than waiting for a great price.
I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
Yeah, I was about to pull the trigger on TSLA and then thought "meh, I bet we'll see a better entry point soon". :oops:

Anyway, you still think TSLA's a buy now?
I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
I just have to say, and I don’t say it lightly, but this is a lot of bluster and nonsense. I’ve looked at your posts here on BG, starting with your first post, about a $1 million inheritance a little over a year ago which you seem to have deleted/edited. Since then, you’ve got multiple posts bragging how you’ve told everyone on the forum how they should’ve gotten into TSLA for years now (you haven’t been on that long) and that the forum wasn’t smart by not listening to you. You’re telling people to watch as many YT videos as they can, and pointing to who has the best analysis, but list numerous people? You’re saying the models they are using for TSLA is conservative? You say Elon Musk is a visionary and a genius, that TSLA is widely undervalued, and yet Elon himself has been questioning for a long time his own company’s valuation? Come on. There are plenty of other forums for this kind of talk if you are looking for and needing the validation.

I’m writing as someone who cashed out on 1000%+ TSLA returns (prior to the current madness), but it was highly speculative and simply luck. It also wasn’t a significant part of my portfolio. It was very clear to me that there were moments when the company could’ve gone belly up, though they’re beyond that now. My point is that there was a tremendous amount of risk then, and there still is a tremendous amount of risk now due to the valuations (which if analysts are beyond honest have little to do with financials and mostly have to do with sentiment). Maybe there’s a small chance that TSLA will be worth 10T one day, but I’m not betting on it. There’s nothing wrong with buying individual stocks. Much of the conversation around here is about whether or not it’s worth the risk.
Prettyfrtnt
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:28 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

angelescrest wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:59 am
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm
000 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:01 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm
000 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 am No, but I do have ROMO: Regret Over Missing Out. I actually thought about buying TSLA early in 2020 before its great run. There are other examples, sadly. I've learned that when I spot an opportunity I need to move quickly rather than waiting for a great price.
I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
Yeah, I was about to pull the trigger on TSLA and then thought "meh, I bet we'll see a better entry point soon". :oops:

Anyway, you still think TSLA's a buy now?
I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
I just have to say, and I don’t say it lightly, but this is a lot of bluster and nonsense. I’ve looked at your posts here on BG, starting with your first post, about a $1 million inheritance a little over a year ago which you seem to have deleted/edited. Since then, you’ve got multiple posts bragging how you’ve told everyone on the forum how they should’ve gotten into TSLA for years now (you haven’t been on that long) and that the forum wasn’t smart by not listening to you. You’re telling people to watch as many YT videos as they can, and pointing to who has the best analysis, but list numerous people? You’re saying the models they are using for TSLA is conservative? You say Elon Musk is a visionary and a genius, that TSLA is widely undervalued, and yet Elon himself has been questioning for a long time his own company’s valuation? Come on. There are plenty of other forums for this kind of talk if you are looking for and needing the validation.

I’m writing as someone who cashed out on 1000%+ TSLA returns (prior to the current madness), but it was highly speculative and simply luck. It also wasn’t a significant part of my portfolio. It was very clear to me that there were moments when the company could’ve gone belly up, though they’re beyond that now. My point is that there was a tremendous amount of risk then, and there still is a tremendous amount of risk now due to the valuations (which if analysts are beyond honest have little to do with financials and mostly have to do with sentiment). Maybe there’s a small chance that TSLA will be worth 10T one day, but I’m not betting on it. There’s nothing wrong with buying individual stocks. Much of the conversation around here is about whether or not it’s worth the risk.
Quite a salty reply I would hope this would be moderated. The stock is too high was posted 5/1 at 9:11 in the am on 9/11 they announced a 5/1 split. I actually thought my post was pretty good.
random_walker_77
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by random_walker_77 »

I've no FOMO. I've made the conscious decision that I'm not going to try and beat the market. I'm going to forgo all the "obvious" opportunities to make immense riches on superstar investments. No 10-baggers for me. No TSLA, no Bitcoin etc

I own the total stock market. If bitcoin truly becomes real, it's not going to eat the world by its lonesome. Large public companies will take their share. Maybe it's JP Morgan (JPM), maybe Goldman Sachs (GS), maybe Paypal (PYPL). I don't know and I don't really care, but by owning the total market, I'll ride along at some level. I won't make a killing, but I won't miss out. I'm not greedy, and will settle for the overall market (VTSAX) minus 0.04%.

Same for Tesla. Already own it through VTSAX, and it's the 7th largest individual holding in that fund. That's "good enough"
angelescrest
Posts: 1211
Joined: Tue May 27, 2008 10:48 am
Location: MCOL, no state income tax

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by angelescrest »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:51 am
angelescrest wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:59 am
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm
000 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:01 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm

I bought and I tried to tell every darn Boglehead here to buy. Back in 2018-2019 most Tesla threads got locked or deleted. I also tried to tell you all to buy the cars. Luckily I did both. It really wasn’t that complex. Coming off years of 50%y/y growth and the worlds most important collection of talent and technology. That seems kinda like a “big deal.” All of you were like meh.

To those that don’t get it like the above poster... India probably paying them to build a fifth factory there. You’ll never get it. Unassailable moat guys. 1T 5T 10T ... Energy creation and transport (energy use) are 9/11 largest companies by revenue and they will all be disrupted. Legacy auto was cooked 3 years ago.
Yeah, I was about to pull the trigger on TSLA and then thought "meh, I bet we'll see a better entry point soon". :oops:

Anyway, you still think TSLA's a buy now?
I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
I just have to say, and I don’t say it lightly, but this is a lot of bluster and nonsense. I’ve looked at your posts here on BG, starting with your first post, about a $1 million inheritance a little over a year ago which you seem to have deleted/edited. Since then, you’ve got multiple posts bragging how you’ve told everyone on the forum how they should’ve gotten into TSLA for years now (you haven’t been on that long) and that the forum wasn’t smart by not listening to you. You’re telling people to watch as many YT videos as they can, and pointing to who has the best analysis, but list numerous people? You’re saying the models they are using for TSLA is conservative? You say Elon Musk is a visionary and a genius, that TSLA is widely undervalued, and yet Elon himself has been questioning for a long time his own company’s valuation? Come on. There are plenty of other forums for this kind of talk if you are looking for and needing the validation.

I’m writing as someone who cashed out on 1000%+ TSLA returns (prior to the current madness), but it was highly speculative and simply luck. It also wasn’t a significant part of my portfolio. It was very clear to me that there were moments when the company could’ve gone belly up, though they’re beyond that now. My point is that there was a tremendous amount of risk then, and there still is a tremendous amount of risk now due to the valuations (which if analysts are beyond honest have little to do with financials and mostly have to do with sentiment). Maybe there’s a small chance that TSLA will be worth 10T one day, but I’m not betting on it. There’s nothing wrong with buying individual stocks. Much of the conversation around here is about whether or not it’s worth the risk.
Quite a salty reply I would hope this would be moderated. The stock is too high was posted 5/1 at 9:11 in the am on 9/11 they announced a 5/1 split. I actually thought my post was pretty good.
It’s a completely proportionate response to all that you are openly claiming. Can you explain the financial valuations that support the current stock price? If not PE/PEG ratios, discounted cash flow, or asset valuation methods, then what? You are making sweeping, blustery declarations like “Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when”, which is pretty useless to anyone reading. I’m happy to engage with the moderators, but I’ve read the rules and stand by what I wrote.
Helo80
Posts: 1909
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Helo80 »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:51 am Quite a salty reply I would hope this would be moderated. The stock is too high was posted 5/1 at 9:11 in the am on 9/11 they announced a 5/1 split. I actually thought my post was pretty good.


Dump every penny you earn into TSLA to prove us wrong. Unfortunately, many of us have not done the deep-dive analysis of TSLA to realize how terribly undervalued it is right now.
dru808
Posts: 1296
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:42 pm
Location: mid pac

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by dru808 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:21 am
dru808 wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:54 am Oh...
Someone help me!

My bitcoin is going down today.

If only I had listened!

:shock: :confused
I’m selling all my Bitcoin. Down for what 4 days? I just bought on Saturday. Screw this ponzi scheme.





:mrgreen: :dollar To the 🌙
Get out while the price is low, (but not too low).
I think that's how these things work.
:D

Bought back in today! Bitcoin is unstoppable!
..........
H-Town
Posts: 3180
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by H-Town »

neb2020 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:08 am Maybe I need some BH therapy or support group.

Do you have FOMO on not chasing the latest shiny coin that worked out so well? Bitcoin? TSLA? I'm not saying dump your entire portfolio, but even with my play money I did not invest/speculate in Bitcoin and TSLA. I did play with commodity funds and got eaten up alive by Contango, so the only 1 rebellious streak ended up with 0% growth (approx). Yet, we have noobs getting rich off Bitcoin and TSLA.

Do you have FOMO? Be honest. I admit I have some FOMO. I thought of buying Bitcoin back in 2019 when it was $5k-ish but dragged my feet because of implementation issues. A friend told me about hot TSLA stock, but I ignored it. I hate to say it but if I had got into Bitcoin or TSLA with my play money (5% portfolio) even 5 years back, I may have doubled my portfolio today. I've been a good BH and my returns have suffered as a result. How do you deal with the guilt and FOMO?
No fear, no greed. :beer :sharebeer
Trader Joe
Posts: 2090
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:38 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Trader Joe »

"Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)"

No, I do not.
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8735
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by TheTimeLord »

tim1999 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:48 am Bitcoin back down to around 30,600, down another ~ 4,700 today.

Image
$37,471.64
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
MinnGuyInvesting
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:46 pm
tim1999 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:48 am Bitcoin back down to around 30,600, down another ~ 4,700 today.

Image
$37,471.64
Time to buy back in!
Buy High. Sell Low!

From 41k to 31k to 37k.
That's just the last 6 days of fun.
Index ETF's 41% | ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% | Other individual stocks 3% | Bitcoin / ETH 4%
Micronite
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:57 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Micronite »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
All of that hype has already been factored into the current stock price by people like you. The stock will stop going up once it runs out of greater fools to sell to.
User avatar
firebirdparts
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Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by firebirdparts »

WSB claiming control tonight, but their control might be limited to GameStop. If people are pumping stocks in an organized way, and the clearly have been, you’d definitely want to get mocked for selling too soon.

I have a lot more FOM than I do FOMO.
A fool and your money are soon partners
Rotsevni
Posts: 65
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Location: The Netherlands

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Rotsevni »

Yes, I do have FOMO, and I notice having difficulties sticking to the plan. I ask myself; should I invest in crypto? Should I adjust my portfolio?

My brother told me last year when bitcoin reached 3.5k Eur to buy bitcoin again, I refused (since I lost few 1000's with previous collapse in 2017). In the end my brother told to buy right on the bottom (how lucky!). Today he is smiling, I am regretting haha.

Even now I ask myself to maybe buy 1 bitcoin and see what it does, I am 27 and plan to retire around 60, enough time to see where it will go.
User avatar
AnalogKid22
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Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Yes, but life is hard enough without having to worry about my money. I got a tip a few years back on an oil/land stock that would have made me millions by now. Over the years, there were also a few periods where the stock lagged significantly, due to demand and changes in management, and investors were panicking, while I sat back with a "glad it's not me" grin. I'm sure the ones who stayed the coarse are jumping for joy today, but, are they selling now to reap the rewards or will they go through more anguish during the next downturn?

The euphoric feeling of watching your investments soar doesn't counter the anguish of watching them plummet and the sinking feeling of seeing your hard-earned money disappear. Goldman is predicting a 14% return for the SP500 this year. Will they be right? Is the SP500 a "good investment" this year? I have no clue, but, being diversified in index funds certainly makes investing a lot easier: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savinga ... rthp-feeds
Maverick3320
Posts: 661
Joined: Tue May 12, 2015 2:59 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Maverick3320 »

I think my problem is fear of missing out on locking in profits (FOMOLIP?)

I've done an okay job of picking stocks with my play money (my three big investments when the covid market bottomed out were American Airlines, Disney, and Carnival).

The problem is that when I get anywhere near 100% profit on something, the urge to sell is simply too high. I've learned that there is basically no chance I would ever be able to hold Bitcoin or Tesla through a 5000000% price increase.
a
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:00 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by a »

fear of missing out on locking in profits
I am the same way. The last time my emotions compelled me to sell
a sudden winner, it was TSLA at $175.

I like to think that I don't move unless I have to. But this morning I sold 5%
of my remaining TSLA, for a couple reasons.

(1) Projected higher child care costs for 1 or more kids (special needs
type of stuff)

(2) Since TSLA has gone up, I have internalized the mindset where I
have the wherewithal to start spending "luxury" a little bit - spending
money for health. I have always wanted extra help (babysitters etc.)
and a quieter house.

(3) When TSLA dropped 10% in one day (Jan.11) I was seriously affected.
My mind was discombobulated. Given that there hasn't been a recession
for 13 years, for the last 4 days I have had spontaneous
thoughts "if it crashed, I would be unhappy and discombobulated"

(4) I'm getting older. I will always have enough to retire comfortably
(In the U.S., one does not have to be uber rich to retire comfortably).
I will not always have time to pursue my dreams. Stress severely
hampers ability to progress on those.
TheoLeo
Posts: 280
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by TheoLeo »

What really drives my FOMO in this market is that the actions of individual stocks were so predictable last year (and this year so far). I try hard to convince myself that this won´t be the case going forward.
Last edited by TheoLeo on Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
gougou
Posts: 348
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by gougou »

Bought a good amount of TSLA in 2019. Tripled my money and got out. Then it went ahead and tripled again :shock:

To make myself feel better:

I made a fortune getting out too soon - JP Morgan
Last edited by gougou on Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Silas1067
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:58 am

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Silas1067 »

I haven't felt investing FOMO since the late 1990s

Around 1998 I got into the Kinetics funds, like the "Internet Infrastructure Fund" --seemed like a genius move at the time.

And we know what happened next. I lost a bunch of money on those and was taught a lesson.

But I never get FOMO these days, and laugh at the Bitcoin euphoria. That whole thing is going to crash and burn.

I am 50 now, and I follow a strict investment philosophy of total return, value investing, and looking for opportunities (about 20% of my portfolio is in CEFs, which require a more active and vigilant approach, but can generate excellent returns if you know what you are doing).
Prettyfrtnt
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:28 pm

Re: Do you have FOMO (Bitcoin, TSLA, whatever?)

Post by Prettyfrtnt »

Micronite wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:02 am
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:24 pm I appreciate this question. I think TSLA is still very undervalued if the following assumptions are true: 1) long term need for the capital 10+ years that you will invest 2) your personality is such that you have the nerve to buy and hold forever and withstand big swings. You also have to withstand behavior errors like “taking profits”. If this is your mindset Tesla is a mistake. If you don’t believe in their mission and their plan you will get paper hands. You must have diamond hands to own Tesla. 3) still should be with “play money” I would not yolo the account—how some have done. 4) you have driven a Tesla.

Now let’s say all of the above are true. Now you need to look under the hood. Watch as many YouTube videos and read as much as you can. If you decide you believe in this company. Yes most financial models that are forward looking Tesla models like Gary Black or yesterday’s Credit Suisse and ARK from last year ... have probability ranges of future outcomes based on their growth models. We are way ahead now of the ARK bull case from 2019. The best analysis on Tesla is Chamath Palihapitiya, Cathie Wood and ARK, Gary Black. Read what they have to say. Most models suggest is it is still widely undervalued. Most models are using conservative numbers and still show this company now to be >>1T.

Yes this company will be a 10T company it is simply a matter of when.
All of that hype has already been factored into the current stock price by people like you. The stock will stop going up once it runs out of greater fools to sell to.
S&P bought it at 695 a share. My average share price is <$50. It’s now at 840s. I think I’m okay. It’s obviously not for you. I project additional generational wealth (which it has already done) and I wanted to share my very educated perspective. You will see calls to break this company up in 3-7 years. All you have to do is look under the hood. Try driving one even. 50%y/y growth >10 years. And wait until you see this quarters’ profit off economies of scale. It will print bigly. Tune back in here January 27. Doesn’t everyone exclusively buy a Tesla in your neighborhood yet?
Last edited by Prettyfrtnt on Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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