Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
lol it's never about savings when you buy a Tesla. The most barebone (no options added) started at 38k pre-tax & fee.
Let's say you spend $1,000 a year on gas for the Camry (28 city / 39 highway). I'll be generous and assign $300 for the equivalent cost of electricity on your Tesla. As a result, you "save" $700 a year on gas.
A barebone Camry started at 25k pre-tax & fee. So you have a difference of 13k in purchase price.
13,000 divided by $700 is ... wait for it ... 18.5 years.
If you're familiar with the bell curve, the amount of owner keep a car for 18.5 is very small.
This is also how I look at it, and I bought a Tesla.
Some guy did a 5 year total cost of ownership for Camry and Tesla3 and concluded it was close. I’m not linking it, because I thought it was flawed. To make it close, you need an absurdly low resale value for the 5 year old Camry.
I bought the Tesla. I spent $50K. I’m never getting that money back.....
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
According to the EPA's consumption figures, and assuming 12K miles/year, 50% city/50% highway driving, and gas cost of $3/gallon and electricity 15 cents/KWHr (about average where I am): The Model 3 Long Range AWD will cost about $450/year to "fuel," vs $1050/year for the Camry 4-cylinder (non-hybrid). So a bit over $4000 difference over 7 years.
Of course that's ignoring differences in maintenance. Theoretically EVs are simpler and lacks some ICE components (like a transmission) that are expensive to fix/replace, but on average the Camry may be more reliable.
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
lol it's never about savings when you buy a Tesla. The most barebone (no options added) started at 38k pre-tax & fee.
Let's say you spend $1,000 a year on gas for the Camry (28 city / 39 highway). I'll be generous and assign $300 for the equivalent cost of electricity on your Tesla. As a result, you "save" $700 a year on gas.
A barebone Camry started at 25k pre-tax & fee. So you have a difference of 13k in purchase price.
13,000 divided by $700 is ... wait for it ... 18.5 years.
If you're familiar with the bell curve, the amount of owner keep a car for 18.5 is very small.
This is also how I look at it, and I bought a Tesla.
Some guy did a 5 year total cost of ownership for Camry and Tesla3 and concluded it was close. I’m not linking it, because I thought it was flawed. To make it close, you need an absurdly low resale value for the 5 year old Camry.
I bought the Tesla. I spent $50K. I’m never getting that money back.....
The net difference is probably smaller than $13K. Teslas no longer qualify for the federal tax credit, but many states/localities have incentives. Here in CA, most Tesla buyers are likely to qualify for a $1500 utility rebate (at point of purchase) as well as a $2000 CVRP rebate. (There could be as much as $7500 in additional CA incentives, if your income is low enough.) And if you call in, you can order the Model 3 Standard Range for $35K. Sure it's "bare-bones," but that $25K base Camry LE is even more so.
So the real difference for most buyers (at least in CA) will be around $6500 before tax, which will take around 10 years to get back. For some buyers the up-front cost difference could be almost nil. I'd take the Tesla in a heartbeat regardless.
Last edited by 02nz on Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
According to the EPA's consumption figures, and assuming 12K miles/year, 50% city/50% highway driving, and gas cost of $3/gallon and electricity 15 cents/KWHr (about average where I am): The Model 3 Long Range AWD will cost about $450/year to "fuel," vs $1050/year for the Camry 4-cylinder (non-hybrid). So a bit over $4000 difference over 7 years.
Of course that's ignoring differences in maintenance. Theoretically EVs are simpler and lacks some ICE components (like a transmission) that are expensive to fix/replace, but on average the Camry may be more reliable.
Those electricity costs could be pretty high for some places. I pay ~8.5c/kwh, and I pay a bit extra for renewable energy. Some places also have "free nights" plans.
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
According to the EPA's consumption figures, and assuming 12K miles/year, 50% city/50% highway driving, and gas cost of $3/gallon and electricity 15 cents/KWHr (about average where I am): The Model 3 Long Range AWD will cost about $450/year to "fuel," vs $1050/year for the Camry 4-cylinder (non-hybrid). So a bit over $4000 difference over 7 years.
Of course that's ignoring differences in maintenance. Theoretically EVs are simpler and lacks some ICE components (like a transmission) that are expensive to fix/replace, but on average the Camry may be more reliable.
Those electricity costs could be pretty high for some places. I pay ~8.5c/kwh, and I pay a bit extra for renewable energy. Some places also have "free nights" plans.
Of course this is hugely YMMV. And, you probably also pay a lot less than $3/gal for gas.
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
According to the EPA's consumption figures, and assuming 12K miles/year, 50% city/50% highway driving, and gas cost of $3/gallon and electricity 15 cents/KWHr (about average where I am): The Model 3 Long Range AWD will cost about $450/year to "fuel," vs $1050/year for the Camry 4-cylinder (non-hybrid). So a bit over $4000 difference over 7 years.
Of course that's ignoring differences in maintenance. Theoretically EVs are simpler and lacks some ICE components (like a transmission) that are expensive to fix/replace, but on average the Camry may be more reliable.
Those electricity costs could be pretty high for some places. I pay ~8.5c/kwh, and I pay a bit extra for renewable energy. Some places also have "free nights" plans.
Of course this is hugely YMMV. And, you probably also pay a lot less than $3/gal for gas.
My data point: ~11.7c/kwh, $1.60/gallon last time I filled up.
I would take the Tesla for sure, but not because of savings from gas. It's purely because how it drives.
Geneyus wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:09 pm
A 9 year old, base model pickup truck that I paid for with cash when it was 1 year old with low miles. Someone else took the depreciation hit.
I will trade it in for a "new" used truck when they start getting 25-30 mpg in the city. Maybe 5 more years?
Full size pickup truck? As long as I've been driving pickups, the real-world fuel economy between my 1998 F-150 and my 2016 F-150 has been probably less than 3 or 4 mpg. In almost 20 years, fuel economy for a half-ton truck hasn't improved dramatically and I don't see that changing in 5 years. Getting a 3+ ton brick with the ability to pull 10,000 lbs is quite a challenge to make fuel efficient without giving up the ever-increasing power and torque numbers that truck buyers demand. However some of the smaller Ranger and Colorado's are getting in the mid 20's on the interstate.
Did you miss a digit there? Surely, you aren't getting 3 or 4 mpg... maybe 13 or 14. My old F150 with the 5.4L got about 13 mpg average.
I've heard pretty good things about the new F150 Ecoboost engines and mpg's, but I don't know what the real-world city mpg is.
Geneyus wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:09 pm
A 9 year old, base model pickup truck that I paid for with cash when it was 1 year old with low miles. Someone else took the depreciation hit.
I will trade it in for a "new" used truck when they start getting 25-30 mpg in the city. Maybe 5 more years?
Full size pickup truck? As long as I've been driving pickups, the real-world fuel economy between my 1998 F-150 and my 2016 F-150 has been probably less than 3 or 4 mpg. In almost 20 years, fuel economy for a half-ton truck hasn't improved dramatically and I don't see that changing in 5 years. Getting a 3+ ton brick with the ability to pull 10,000 lbs is quite a challenge to make fuel efficient without giving up the ever-increasing power and torque numbers that truck buyers demand. However some of the smaller Ranger and Colorado's are getting in the mid 20's on the interstate.
Did you miss a digit there? Surely, you aren't getting 3 or 4 mpg... maybe 13 or 14. My old F150 with the 5.4L got about 13 mpg average.
I've heard pretty good things about the new F150 Ecoboost engines and mpg's, but I don't know what the real-world city mpg is.
My old F-150 routinely got 15 mpg...my current F-150 gets around 18-19 mpg. For almost 20 years difference in age, you'd expect more.
We have two Toyotas in our household, both of them hybrids. I just retired and barely drive around much. Wife's company is still in remote work mode.
At this point, I could buy pretty much any reasonable car on the market for cash with a negligible impact on our finances. And yet I have absolutely no interest in buying a car.
I should note that we are not hesitant to spend when it helps improve our quality of life. We just got our house renovated to give me more space for my hobbies - and it was not inexpensive. I just don't feel like spending money on cars that I will barely use.
2011 sedan maybe 5K driven a year (bought new). No intention of getting rid of this car. Kept in winter home.
2016 German SUV bought new. 10K driven a year, kid to school, kid to activities, family car.
2016 German sports car bought new. 5K driven a year. My garage toy. Wash, wax, drive for the weekend and repeat. Rare to get track days anymore. Fits a single set of golf clubs if positioned correctly.
2016 we realized and accepted that our prior decisions were going to permit us to be comfortable for life. (Financed the SUV at 0.9% and took the 80K financed and put directly into s&p500 index fund in a taxable account, finished the financing in august 2019- came out well ahead of the 2k interest paid)
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
I've compared cost per mile of my Crosstrek and my gas price and my electric price vs a Tesla S and a Tesla 3. The Crosstrek is always significantly per mile cheaper. It also cost about half what the cheapest 3 costs. I use various promotions and features to get gas at a huge discount. I have no way to get reduced cost electricity. Gas on average for me is 88 cents a gallon. Electricity costs 20 cents a kWHr. Feel free to double check my math.
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
I've compared cost per mile of my Crosstrek and my gas price and my electric price vs a Tesla S and a Tesla 3. The Crosstrek is always significantly per mile cheaper. It also cost about half what the cheapest 3 costs. I use various promotions and features to get gas at a huge discount. I have no way to get reduced cost electricity. Gas on average for me is 88 cents a gallon. Electricity costs 20 cents a kWHr. Feel free to double check my math.
Charging is free at our grocery store - some people are able to charge at work for free as well. 88 cents a gallon is amazing...how are you able to do that?
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?
Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
lol it's never about savings when you buy a Tesla. The most barebone (no options added) started at 38k pre-tax & fee.
Let's say you spend $1,000 a year on gas for the Camry (28 city / 39 highway). I'll be generous and assign $300 for the equivalent cost of electricity on your Tesla. As a result, you "save" $700 a year on gas.
A barebone Camry started at 25k pre-tax & fee. So you have a difference of 13k in purchase price.
13,000 divided by $700 is ... wait for it ... 18.5 years.
If you're familiar with the bell curve, the amount of owner keep a car for 18.5 is very small.
This is also how I look at it, and I bought a Tesla.
Some guy did a 5 year total cost of ownership for Camry and Tesla3 and concluded it was close. I’m not linking it, because I thought it was flawed. To make it close, you need an absurdly low resale value for the 5 year old Camry.
I bought the Tesla. I spent $50K. I’m never getting that money back.....
The net difference is probably smaller than $13K. Teslas no longer qualify for the federal tax credit, but many states/localities have incentives. Here in CA, most Tesla buyers are likely to qualify for a $1500 utility rebate (at point of purchase) as well as a $2000 CVRP rebate. (There could be as much as $7500 in additional CA incentives, if your income is low enough.) And if you call in, you can order the Model 3 Standard Range for $35K. Sure it's "bare-bones," but that $25K base Camry LE is even more so.
So the real difference for most buyers (at least in CA) will be around $6500 before tax, which will take around 10 years to get back. For some buyers the up-front cost difference could be almost nil. I'd take the Tesla in a heartbeat regardless.
So let's say both pay cash up front. We sometimes forget about opportunity cost. $6500 difference. put that $6500 in VTI +/- TSLA: look in 10 years. the cost is "probably" be higher than $6500. In other states the difference will be a lot more. Saying that Model 3 is way more fun than Camry. Other folks (ie. Boglehead folks) might find "fun" in VTI, others in Model 3 acceleration/driving/ownership experience. To each his or her own.
02nz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:33 pm
So the real difference for most buyers (at least in CA) will be around $6500 before tax, which will take around 10 years to get back. For some buyers the up-front cost difference could be almost nil. I'd take the Tesla in a heartbeat regardless.
So let's say both pay cash up front. We sometimes forget about opportunity cost. $6500 difference. put that $6500 in VTI +/- TSLA: look in 10 years. the cost is "probably" be higher than $6500. In other states the difference will be a lot more. Saying that Model 3 is way more fun than Camry. Other folks (ie. Boglehead folks) might find "fun" in VTI, others in Model 3 acceleration/driving/ownership experience. To each his or her own.
You could say that about any difference price between two items, whether a house, car, or gallon of milk, so I don't see what that adds to this discussion. "Had you not splurged for [insert item here] and instead put it into Apple stock in the 1990s you'd be a millionaire!"
