If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:45 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:27 am
Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:33 am
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:29 am If it does stay between $10-20k, I'll probably buy more.
I have nothing to base this on, but I would think we'll be up over $40k before the end of February (and maybe January.... or tomorrow).
Ethereum is very nice also. The US Government recently allowed banks to use stable-coins for payments and the majority of stable-coins use the Ethereum Block-chain and pay fees in ETH. This is a big advantage that ETH has over Bitcoin IMO.
I think what this really means is that government will be creating its own digital currency and using that. It is the only intelligent way to go. Why would the US utilize currency it can’t control? Also why would the US utilize foreign currency such as the Euro? Same will go for ETH.
The goal of crypto (for many) is insurance against goverment financial miss-management. Having a government create their own digital currency is unappealing for those seeking "Schmuck insurance".

(The constant flooding of the market with printed money devaluing the value of the dollar compared to other currencies / assets).
I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm

I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
I think bitcoin is trading unlike what it should.
That will continue for some time. Possibly years.

Eventually as it gets more "understood" it might trade more similar to Gold, but I would expect that for some time.
Index ETF's 41% |ARK Funds 36% | AAPL 4% | TSLA 3% | GOOGL 1% | AMZN 1% |Other stocks 3% | BTC/ETH 4% | | | | Tracking my porfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5745280#p5745280
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:39 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:45 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:27 am
Anon9001 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:33 am
Ethereum is very nice also. The US Government recently allowed banks to use stable-coins for payments and the majority of stable-coins use the Ethereum Block-chain and pay fees in ETH. This is a big advantage that ETH has over Bitcoin IMO.
I think what this really means is that government will be creating its own digital currency and using that. It is the only intelligent way to go. Why would the US utilize currency it can’t control? Also why would the US utilize foreign currency such as the Euro? Same will go for ETH.
The goal of crypto (for many) is insurance against goverment financial miss-management. Having a government create their own digital currency is unappealing for those seeking "Schmuck insurance".

(The constant flooding of the market with printed money devaluing the value of the dollar compared to other currencies / assets).
I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:55 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:39 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:45 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:27 am

I think what this really means is that government will be creating its own digital currency and using that. It is the only intelligent way to go. Why would the US utilize currency it can’t control? Also why would the US utilize foreign currency such as the Euro? Same will go for ETH.
The goal of crypto (for many) is insurance against goverment financial miss-management. Having a government create their own digital currency is unappealing for those seeking "Schmuck insurance".

(The constant flooding of the market with printed money devaluing the value of the dollar compared to other currencies / assets).
I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:48 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm

I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
I think bitcoin is trading unlike what it should.
That will continue for some time. Possibly years.

Eventually as it gets more "understood" it might trade more similar to Gold, but I would expect that for some time.
I agree, there is a lot of different view points coming into play here:

1) Strong advocates for DeFi and the true believers of cryptos. These are the groups who have been around for a while, and some of the new people who have become recent believers. These people are the real hodlers.

2) All the speculators who have caught wind of the news and are trying to gamble to make a quick buck. I believe that is the bulk of the recent demand.

3) Companies who are taking advantage of the above two, providing services for them and making a profit on it. Companies like PayPal, coinbase, etc.

I think it will take time for all those 3 to settle out and reach an equilibrium of some sort. Although I admit that DeFi and what cryptos currently have to offer provide no real benefit to my needs, I am not ignorant to the fact that others are not me and find value in it. At the end of the day, if enough people find value in something, it will have value.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:07 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:48 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm

I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
I think bitcoin is trading unlike what it should.
That will continue for some time. Possibly years.

Eventually as it gets more "understood" it might trade more similar to Gold, but I would expect that for some time.
I agree, there is a lot of different view points coming into play here:

1) Strong advocates for DeFi and the true believers of cryptos. These are the groups who have been around for a while, and some of the new people who have become recent believers. These people are the real hodlers.

2) All the speculators who have caught wind of the news and are trying to gamble to make a quick buck. I believe that is the bulk of the recent demand.

3) Companies who are taking advantage of the above two, providing services for them and making a profit on it. Companies like PayPal, coinbase, etc.

I think it will take time for all those 3 to settle out and reach an equilibrium of some sort. Although I admit that DeFi and what cryptos currently have to offer provide no real benefit to my needs, I am not ignorant to the fact that others are not me and find value in it. At the end of the day, if enough people find value in something, it will have value.
The real question is will institutional support of Bitcoin lead to the rise of Rollerball? Think about it.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:03 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:55 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:39 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:45 am

The goal of crypto (for many) is insurance against goverment financial miss-management. Having a government create their own digital currency is unappealing for those seeking "Schmuck insurance".

(The constant flooding of the market with printed money devaluing the value of the dollar compared to other currencies / assets).
I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
The only answer is: Maybe.

I guess if I wanted idiosyncratic currency risk protection, I would keep multiple currencies and not just 2, especially when one of them is soooooo volatile. I see enough reasons why someone would want to own bitcoin, I just don't see idiosyncratic currency risk to have much validity unless it is mixed in with multiple other currencies.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

Register44 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:12 pm Buy - Sell - Hold ??????????
If you are a true believer, I guess buy and hold. If you are a speculator, probably time to sell and try again in the future.
Which one of the above are you?
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:13 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:03 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:55 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:39 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm

I understand the appeal by some for a currency that is outside of the printing press of government control. I think that is where gold and to some extent bitcoin come in. I think if that was the case, gold would have skyrocketed like bitcoin recently, but it did not. That tells me that speculation has been the cause of the recent run up and not people trying to protect themselves from the federal printing presses. I don't think all that many people understand monitory policy to begin with. For me, living in the US, I have no use for a decentralized currency without the protections of federal laws and regulations. Maybe other countries or people are different, but that is just me.

Next, if I was a government entity, why would I use a currency I have no control over. I would make my own. It is the only common sense solution for any sovereign entity. I am going to take a stab at this, but I doubt there is a swath of governments out there taking payments in another countries currency. I can see some companies gladly exchange it for them for a fee. Maybe that will be a more realistic future.
So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
The only answer is: Maybe.

I guess if I wanted idiosyncratic currency risk protection, I would keep multiple currencies and not just 2, especially when one of them is soooooo volatile. I see enough reasons why someone would want to own bitcoin, I just don't see idiosyncratic currency risk to have much validity unless it is mixed in with multiple other currencies.
Obviously a risk varies by your local currency but it probably depends if and when we see a rise in Bond Vigilantes in the future.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Register44
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Register44 »

:arrow:
Last edited by Register44 on Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:18 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:13 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:03 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:55 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:39 pm

So which is easier to carry across a border, $1,000,000 in gold or $1,000,000 in bitcoin.
Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
The only answer is: Maybe.

I guess if I wanted idiosyncratic currency risk protection, I would keep multiple currencies and not just 2, especially when one of them is soooooo volatile. I see enough reasons why someone would want to own bitcoin, I just don't see idiosyncratic currency risk to have much validity unless it is mixed in with multiple other currencies.
Obviously a risk varies by your local currency but it probably depends if and when we see a rise in Bond Vigilantes in the future.
New term: Bond Vigilantes
Can you please explain?
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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TheTimeLord
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:22 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:18 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:13 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:03 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:55 pm

Who cares? How many people are moving $1million across borders?

BTW, if I needed to move $1million from US to Italy, I would make an ACH transfer. Safest and easiest way to transfer money today and still have the same amount on the other side.

Even in Venezuela which had currency devaluation, most people did not use cryptos for their exchange of goods and services. They used dollars. Lucky for me, I have a few of those.

Let us get out of the hype for just a minute and think realistically abut the world and the options available to most of us. Looking at reality, if the US dollar goes into the crapper, the rest of the world goes into the crapper as well. As they say, when the US sneezes, Europe catches a cold. In this world, I will be happy I have plenty of ammunition, the ability to grow food, and a skill that I can barter with. Bitcoin will not help me in this world. Maybe holding a few silver and gold coins will.
The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
The only answer is: Maybe.

I guess if I wanted idiosyncratic currency risk protection, I would keep multiple currencies and not just 2, especially when one of them is soooooo volatile. I see enough reasons why someone would want to own bitcoin, I just don't see idiosyncratic currency risk to have much validity unless it is mixed in with multiple other currencies.
Obviously a risk varies by your local currency but it probably depends if and when we see a rise in Bond Vigilantes in the future.
New term: Bond Vigilantes
Can you please explain?
Old term, worth the Google to decide if you believe they are even real or not.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
EnjoyIt
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:47 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:22 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:18 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:13 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:03 pm

The point of things like gold and bitcoin imho is not inflation protection or apocalypse protection, it is idiosyncratic currency risk. You are free to disagree.

I am old enough to remember when ATMs in Argentina gave you a choice between 20 Pecos and 20 dollars for your distribution.
The only answer is: Maybe.

I guess if I wanted idiosyncratic currency risk protection, I would keep multiple currencies and not just 2, especially when one of them is soooooo volatile. I see enough reasons why someone would want to own bitcoin, I just don't see idiosyncratic currency risk to have much validity unless it is mixed in with multiple other currencies.
Obviously a risk varies by your local currency but it probably depends if and when we see a rise in Bond Vigilantes in the future.
New term: Bond Vigilantes
Can you please explain?
Old term, worth the Google to decide if you believe they are even real or not.
Damn you for making me do my own research. Which I did. Lol.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
dru808
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by dru808 »

Register44 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:12 pm Buy - Sell - Hold ??????????
Buy at the lowest, sell at the highest, lambo.
Sptm 65 | Vigi 20 | Blv 10 | Btc/Eth 5
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queso
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by queso »

dru808 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:24 pm
Register44 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:12 pm Buy - Sell - Hold ??????????
Buy at the lowest, sell at the highest, lambo.
This. I cashed out yesterday and bought lambo today and will now get back in and use those gains for Tesla Roadster Founders Series and a Cybertruck to haul around my coins.
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HomerJ
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:47 am
Forester wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:31 pm Bitcoin will crash this week; last chance to exit above $40k. The chart looks tired and a couple of the big Bitcoin hloders on Twitter have sold out.
Looks like I correctly called the Bitcoin top.
Sorry you don't get to claim that.

You don't get to post "20k is the top!", "25k is the top!", "30k is the top!", "40k is the top!", and then when it finally drops, claim you were "correct".
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:50 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:47 am
Forester wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:31 pm Bitcoin will crash this week; last chance to exit above $40k. The chart looks tired and a couple of the big Bitcoin hloders on Twitter have sold out.
Looks like I correctly called the Bitcoin top.
Sorry you don't get to claim that.

You don't get to post "20k is the top!", "25k is the top!", "30k is the top!", "40k is the top!", and then when it finally drops, claim you were "correct".
He predicted 4795 for the Bogleheads contest for the S&P 500 at the end of 2021. Doesn't align at all with all his bearish predictions.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Corsair »

dru808 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:24 pm
Register44 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:12 pm Buy - Sell - Hold ??????????
Buy at the lowest, sell at the highest, lambo.
It’s much easier to buy high, sell low :mrgreen:
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by dru808 »

I plan to sell my bitcoin as I plan to sell my stock and bond funds. slowly between 25-50 years from now, when I’ll need the money.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by hdcd »

Back in 2017 I bought into bitcoin and some other cryptos with the intention of never selling. In 2020 I added some additional GBTC in my IRAs. Currently hold about 3% of my retirement portfolio in crypto. I'm 58, retired and don't need this money. Just going to let it ride. Will probably hand off to my kids in the future.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by hdcd »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:38 pm The question is, why is the price going up? Who is behind the demand? The original bitcoin enthusiast from 6 months ago have not changed. They are still there. It is a new crowd of people. I’m sure some are new enthusiasts while I bet the majority are a bunch of FOMOs. If that is the case, this may not be just a small blip with a quick rebound.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC. As other see the advantages (and disadvantages) of buying GBTC in their IRAs and ROTHS, I expect more individuals to get their feet wet over the next few years. No keys to manage in GBTC. Easy peasy.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed a post complaining about bitcoin threads. From the site owner: Subject: Michael Saylor Discusses Bitcoin on Bloomberg's Odd Lots
Alex Frakt wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:07 pm I'd like to remind everyone that this is an investing subforum. Discussions on the pros and cons of bitcoins as investments are acceptable as is news about bitcoin as an investment.

Complaining about the existence of bitcoins threads or the motivations of other posters is not. Nor is using bitcoin to jump into off-topic economic speculation. Moderators may be removing such posts from this thread without notification.

As always, if you believe someone has violated this or any other forum policy, please report it. Please don't make the moderators job harder by responding in the thread.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

hdcd wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:38 pm The question is, why is the price going up? Who is behind the demand? The original bitcoin enthusiast from 6 months ago have not changed. They are still there. It is a new crowd of people. I’m sure some are new enthusiasts while I bet the majority are a bunch of FOMOs. If that is the case, this may not be just a small blip with a quick rebound.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC. As other see the advantages (and disadvantages) of buying GBTC in their IRAs and ROTHS, I expect more individuals to get their feet wet over the next few years. No keys to manage in GBTC. Easy peasy.
Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.

FYI, Roth is a type of IRA just like traditional is a type of IRA. Roth can be a type of 401k as well.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by bogivan »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/g ... r-BB1cz3qz

GBTC's new CEO says:
We’ve started to see participation not just from the hedge fund segment, which we’ve long seen participation from, but now it’s recently from other institutions, pensions and endowments
I guess it isn't direct proof - the new CEO could be exaggerating, but presumably he can't stretch the truth too much without potentially getting in trouble with shareholders/SEC. I guess we'll find out over the next quarter whether more MassMutual-style announcements or quieter holding disclosures start to roll out...

Also, Morgan Stanley also just disclosed a 10%+ stake in MicroStrategy. Perhaps they like Business Intelligence software all of a sudden, but it probably has more to do with MSTR's new BTC balance sheet:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1cAVfs
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

bogivan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:44 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/g ... r-BB1cz3qz

GBTC's new CEO says:
We’ve started to see participation not just from the hedge fund segment, which we’ve long seen participation from, but now it’s recently from other institutions, pensions and endowments
I guess it isn't direct proof - the new CEO could be exaggerating, but presumably he can't stretch the truth too much without potentially getting in trouble with shareholders/SEC. I guess we'll find out over the next quarter whether more MassMutual-style announcements or quieter holding disclosures start to roll out...

Also, Morgan Stanley also just disclosed a 10%+ stake in MicroStrategy. Perhaps they like Business Intelligence software all of a sudden, but it probably has more to do with MSTR's new BTC balance sheet:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1cAVfs
The second article has some decent info. Thanks for sharing. The first article is very vague and speculative coming from a CEO that is trying to sell their product. I don't put too much weight on that one.

Considering the fast run up and now the quick drop, it must be a combination of institutional investors and FOMOs. Not sure where the bottom is of this recent bubble, but I suspect is has a little bit more to go. I would assume the bottom is somewhere between here and maybe $15k. I admit my crystal ball is always fuzzy and I'm speculating. There is a price point where speculators will flock back in. I say this because the true believers are already bought in so they are not adding much more to the demand. This is all new investors (institutional, new believers, and FOMOs.) I doubt there will be new believers are the price keeps dropping, and maybe institutional investors have filled their shares, all that is left are the speculators.

Again, there is a bottom where people will find the price a bargain and keep it from ever going too low.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am
hdcd wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:38 pm The question is, why is the price going up? Who is behind the demand? The original bitcoin enthusiast from 6 months ago have not changed. They are still there. It is a new crowd of people. I’m sure some are new enthusiasts while I bet the majority are a bunch of FOMOs. If that is the case, this may not be just a small blip with a quick rebound.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC. As other see the advantages (and disadvantages) of buying GBTC in their IRAs and ROTHS, I expect more individuals to get their feet wet over the next few years. No keys to manage in GBTC. Easy peasy.
Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.

FYI, Roth is a type of IRA just like traditional is a type of IRA. Roth can be a type of 401k as well.
Hard for me to imagine any institution pumping big money into GBTC because of the premium. I can see why someone would use GBTC given the current state of play but it seems like a true Bitcoin ETF would likely shrink the GBTC premium considerably.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by EnjoyIt »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am
hdcd wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:38 pm The question is, why is the price going up? Who is behind the demand? The original bitcoin enthusiast from 6 months ago have not changed. They are still there. It is a new crowd of people. I’m sure some are new enthusiasts while I bet the majority are a bunch of FOMOs. If that is the case, this may not be just a small blip with a quick rebound.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC. As other see the advantages (and disadvantages) of buying GBTC in their IRAs and ROTHS, I expect more individuals to get their feet wet over the next few years. No keys to manage in GBTC. Easy peasy.
Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.

FYI, Roth is a type of IRA just like traditional is a type of IRA. Roth can be a type of 401k as well.
Hard for me to imagine any institution pumping big money into GBTC because of the premium. I can see why someone would use GBTC given the current state of play but it seems like a true Bitcoin ETF would likely shrink the GBTC premium considerably.
Agreed. A 2% ER is ridiculous.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:07 pm

I agree, there is a lot of different view points coming into play here:

1) Strong advocates for DeFi and the true believers of cryptos. These are the groups who have been around for a while, and some of the new people who have become recent believers. These people are the real hodlers.

2) All the speculators who have caught wind of the news and are trying to gamble to make a quick buck. I believe that is the bulk of the recent demand.

3) Companies who are taking advantage of the above two, providing services for them and making a profit on it. Companies like PayPal, coinbase, etc.

I think it will take time for all those 3 to settle out and reach an equilibrium of some sort. Although I admit that DeFi and what cryptos currently have to offer provide no real benefit to my needs, I am not ignorant to the fact that others are not me and find value in it. At the end of the day, if enough people find value in something, it will have value.
I can agree with this.
I'd also add that each of the three groups you outline are fluid.

#1. This group likely steadily grows over time. More people get educated on it. It slowly gets further adopted. It's like people starting to use any new technology. But the recent swing in price was not due to this group suddenly growing significantly.

#2 I agree this group did have an effect. People who quickly bought it. Made 15-50% and dumped. Some won, some lost. Would have to look back at volume of units sold during the last 3-4 weeks to see if volumes suddenly increased when looking back a few months from now, or if that held true. Some may be done, but some will keep playing the market.

#3 Yes. There are companies taking advantage of it, but some are also positioning themselves for the longterm with Bitcoin. (Paypal, Square) I believe are two of those.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by TheTimeLord »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:00 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am
hdcd wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:55 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:38 pm The question is, why is the price going up? Who is behind the demand? The original bitcoin enthusiast from 6 months ago have not changed. They are still there. It is a new crowd of people. I’m sure some are new enthusiasts while I bet the majority are a bunch of FOMOs. If that is the case, this may not be just a small blip with a quick rebound.
[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC. As other see the advantages (and disadvantages) of buying GBTC in their IRAs and ROTHS, I expect more individuals to get their feet wet over the next few years. No keys to manage in GBTC. Easy peasy.
Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.

FYI, Roth is a type of IRA just like traditional is a type of IRA. Roth can be a type of 401k as well.
Hard for me to imagine any institution pumping big money into GBTC because of the premium. I can see why someone would use GBTC given the current state of play but it seems like a true Bitcoin ETF would likely shrink the GBTC premium considerably.
Agreed. A 2% ER is ridiculous.
Not talking about the ER, the current price is $37.39 while the value of the Bitcoin held per share is $32.34. This premium expands and contracts. As I remember in the early days of GBTC it may have been as high as 40%.

https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment ... erformance
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by bogivan »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:00 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:55 am Hard for me to imagine any institution pumping big money into GBTC because of the premium. I can see why someone would use GBTC given the current state of play but it seems like a true Bitcoin ETF would likely shrink the GBTC premium considerably.
Agreed. A 2% ER is ridiculous.
Institutions don't pay the premium (*if they don't want to...): they can buy direct from Greyscale at NAV (but with a lockup period). You can skip the premium too if you're an accredited investor.

Presumably they don't care too much about the 2% ER since it is the only way to get 1:1 exposure and once there is more competition (like a real ETF), the ERs will decrease.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

I'm still waiting for the new bottom, but grabbed an itty-bitty morsel today again.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by kabob »

When to sell?
Image
When the Slope of the 50Day Ave goes negative...
More positively, How long to Hold? While the Slope of the 50 remains Positive.
and per ComputerAided LossAvoidence using EMA50 backtests better!
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ccf »

Regarding "Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC" above:

I saw an article this morning where Goldman said that roughly 1% of Bitcoin is held by institutions: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/goldman ... tcoin.html

6 billion dollars. Feels like a meaningless number for institutional investors.

The real money is in trading crypto, not holding it.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

ccf wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:27 pm Regarding "Institutional investors are pumping big money into GBTC" above:

I saw an article this morning where Goldman said that roughly 1% of Bitcoin is held by institutions: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/goldman ... tcoin.html

6 billion dollars. Feels like a meaningless number for institutional investors.

The real money is in trading crypto, not holding it.
I'm just going to hold.
Not smart enough to trade it.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by UpsetRaptor »

It's funny there's technical analysis charts of bitcoin on bogleheads.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by l1am »

Crypto is my "possibility of retiring earlier than expected" speculative investment. It was 5%, dropped to 2%, now it's almost 12% of my portfolio.

I'll re-evaluate if it ever hits ~30% of net worth, at that point it could have a real impact on retiring much younger.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

l1am wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:43 pm Crypto is my "possibility of retiring earlier than expected" speculative investment. It was 5%, dropped to 2%, now it's almost 12% of my portfolio.

I'll re-evaluate if it ever hits ~30% of net worth, at that point it could have a real impact on retiring much younger.
Bitcoin rallying these last 24 hours.
Curious if we break 41k today.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by queso »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:36 am
l1am wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:43 pm Crypto is my "possibility of retiring earlier than expected" speculative investment. It was 5%, dropped to 2%, now it's almost 12% of my portfolio.

I'll re-evaluate if it ever hits ~30% of net worth, at that point it could have a real impact on retiring much younger.
Bitcoin rallying these last 24 hours.
Curious if we break 41k today.
Thanks for the heads up...time to dump my bags again.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Anon9001 »

Image

This should be read:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_u ... money.html

My original suspicions of this being just a Tether pump seems to be correct. This could be a "black-swan" event for crypto if the thing collapses.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by queso »

Anon9001 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:44 am
This should be read:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_u ... money.html

My original suspicions of this being just a Tether pump seems to be correct. This could be a "black-swan" event for crypto if the thing collapses.
Prepare to be mobbed by permabulls with grape stained Koolaid faces in 3...2....1..... :happy
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by bogivan »

One big factor with this dip and fast recovery is that GBTC has had their purchases on hold since Christmas and had paused the onboarding of new direct clients, but they just re-opened. This reduced buying support during the dip, but is starting to provide upward momentum again. Yesterday they bought up 2,000 more coins (more than 2x daily supply that miners create) and we shall see if they continue buying at the same kind of rate they had been in the past few months: https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale

Paypal activity seems to also be continuing to increase: https://nomics.com/exchanges/itbit

Neither purchaser involves Tether at all...
Enganerd
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Enganerd »

NTTUNG163 wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:53 pm
FlantasticSea wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:52 pm Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme. It has no future. It will never be a currency or anything useful.

Everyone is lying to others (and themselves) about how it will become a currency because they're invested and want to encourage its growth.

Why will it never be a currency? Just think about what a currency is, why it's useful, how it's allocated, why it's trusted, and you should have your answer. Need a single obvious reason? The fact that 87% of bitcoin is owned by individuals holding more than 10 coins (now worth $400,000) and 44% is owned by individuals with more than 1k coins (worth $40 million) (https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/12 ... 0232971270).

This should be an obvious red flag unless you're the kind of person who looks at the US's gini coefficient and thinks "damn wouldn't it be great if there were 100x more wealth inequality". But then you also have to tack on these whales haven't accumulated their coin by providing value to society, but instead by polluting the air and/or maliciously spreading a lie for their own profit. These are the people you want controlling the wealth?

Need more reason? Start googling, or see what one of the early 2000s contributors has to say about its issues: https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryp ... 36510.html

Perhaps one day there will be a cryptocurrency that can become a real currency. Perhaps real and valuable use can be found for the underlying technology. But bitcoin will never be that. This pyramid scheme has so much strength and refuses to die because it's so easy to want to believe the lie. It's easy to hate currency, banks, governments, and think this is the solution to all of our problems. It's easy to dismiss arguments against it as jealous whiners who wish they purchased earlier. And then before you let yourself start questioning if bitcoin realistically has a future you've decided to invest and then your thoughts change to thinking about how to also pump the value.

My recommendation if you're buying bitcoin is to have a plan. Perhaps it's even easy to profit off of if you have one because you know most bitcoin investors have no plan except to react harshly to market trends. Create a plan now - stick to it - and perhaps you'll come out on top.
Boring. Old man yells at cloud. You are not wrong, the market is wrong. The last person to get bitcoin will be the educated and "credentialed" class, and I am speaking from a perspective of a person working in traditional finance. I am an actuary in real life.

All your concerns has been answered and debunked a thousand times because all new investors had the same issue until they understand. We are not in 2014 any more. For those who are interested, please watch the discuss between Dave Lee and Ark investment analyst on Bitcoin, they go quite deep into the topic on first principal thinking.

Link to the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLMJGs4yARw

If you don't have time, check out the thread where Lyn shut the hedge fund manager up: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/sta ... 41573?s=20

Image
Lyn is a good source on bitcoin. She discusses accurate data in a logical manner to explain why btc has appeal to many people today. I am not familiar with Dave Lee or the Ark investment analysist. But similar to more nuanced discussions between pro btc and btc skeptics I tend to come away agreeing more with the skeptic. Btc bulls seem to rely on circular logic. They work on an assumption that demand will maintain or increase and therefore so will prices. If that happens then yes, many of the people looking for a way to store wealth would be rewarded by buying bitcoin. This will draw more demand and thus be a self fulling cycle of increased prices. But that logic does seem to hold for most assets, if prices increases faster than inflation it would be a good asset to hold to preserve wealth and it will draw more attention. Admittedly btc is a bit different than a stock bubble because one of the reasons people do value btc is because they see it as a possible sound money, not simply an asset that should be tied to some sort of cash flow model.

My position remains that bitcoin at today's price provides decent expected returns. However, it is high risk in both the short and longterm. Therefore, if you choose to speculate in it, do it with both eyes open.
Last edited by Enganerd on Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by mall0c »

I am a Boglehead through and through but I bought some bitcoins years ago as a novelty because I wanted to understand them better. I have been through several crashes with them. They are incredibly volatile, so I hold them at book value (purchase price) on my balance sheet (everything else I mark to market) because the constant volatility was messing up my IRR calcs. However this approach is starting to create a significant distortion now that the BTC-USD price is where it is.

I don't really want to sell them. I view them now pretty much the same as any other currency, except backed by mathematics instead of a central bank. All currencies to me are simply shared mental constructs that only have value because of a system-wide shared belief that they do. This is true even for currencies backed by something physical like gold, which also has no intrinsic survival value (i.e. I can't eat it or sleep in it or defend myself from animals with it). I have significantly less faith in the USD than when I bought them and I like diversification. I like to think of it like the elevator in space analogy for special relativity - is it that the BTC price is volatile from the perspective of the USD, or is it that the USD is volatile from the perspective of BTC? :D
Last edited by mall0c on Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by queso »

mall0c wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:01 am I am a Boglehead through and through but I bought some bitcoins years ago as a novelty because I wanted to understand them better. I have been through several crashes with them. They are incredibly volatile, so I hold them at book value on my balance sheet (everything else I mark to market) because the constant volatility was messing up my IRR calcs. However this approach is starting to create a significant distortion now that the BTC-USD price is where it is.

I don't really want to sell them. I view them now pretty much the same as any other currency, except backed by mathematics instead of a central bank. All currencies to me are simply shared mental constructs that only have value because of a system-wide shared belief that they do. This is true even for currencies backed by something physical like gold, which also has no intrinsic survival value (i.e. I can't eat it or sleep in it or defend myself from animals with it). I have significantly less faith in the USD than when I bought them and I like diversification. I like to think of it like the elevator in space analogy for special relativity - is it that the BTC price is volatile from the perspective of the USD, or is it that the USD is volatile from the perspective of BTC? :D
I can get behind this definition. A bunch of people decided BTC was worth something and because more people believe in BTC it is worth more than DOGE, etc. The real power would be to create a network of social media influencers and form a group to decide which coin is "next", buy up a metric crapton of that coin, pump it for a while, get out and leave your bags with the hodlers. Rinse and repeat every now and then. You might even be able to sell subscription tiers. Something like:

-Diamond level - access to which coin is next before the initial social media pump
-Platinum level - access 1 week after initial pump
-Gold level - access 2 weeks after initial pump
-blah
-blah
-blah
-Bagholder level - no access to info; just a poor WoW addicted troglodyte living in his parents' basement with a lambo poster on the wall

Actually this might already be going on.... :wink:
ohboy!
Posts: 582
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:21 pm

Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ohboy! »

mall0c wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:01 am I am a Boglehead through and through but I bought some bitcoins years ago as a novelty because I wanted to understand them better. I have been through several crashes with them. They are incredibly volatile, so I hold them at book value on my balance sheet (everything else I mark to market) because the constant volatility was messing up my IRR calcs. However this approach is starting to create a significant distortion now that the BTC-USD price is where it is.

I don't really want to sell them. I view them now pretty much the same as any other currency, except backed by mathematics instead of a central bank. All currencies to me are simply shared mental constructs that only have value because of a system-wide shared belief that they do. This is true even for currencies backed by something physical like gold, which also has no intrinsic survival value (i.e. I can't eat it or sleep in it or defend myself from animals with it). I have significantly less faith in the USD than when I bought them and I like diversification. I like to think of it like the elevator in space analogy for special relativity - is it that the BTC price is volatile from the perspective of the USD, or is it that the USD is volatile from the perspective of BTC? :D
I really think spectators have little helpful insight into cryptocurrency. Just buying a little bit, trying it out, can really go a long way to understanding something. And then you hold it for a year or two and are quite a bit more intrigued by, if nothing else, the price. My siblings are this way. They purchased just a couple hundred bucks 4 years ago. They still maintain a little allocation to crypto, but they understand it 10x better than my cousins who have never tried it.
Enganerd
Posts: 229
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:22 pm

Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by Enganerd »

ohboy! wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:21 am
mall0c wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:01 am I am a Boglehead through and through but I bought some bitcoins years ago as a novelty because I wanted to understand them better. I have been through several crashes with them. They are incredibly volatile, so I hold them at book value on my balance sheet (everything else I mark to market) because the constant volatility was messing up my IRR calcs. However this approach is starting to create a significant distortion now that the BTC-USD price is where it is.

I don't really want to sell them. I view them now pretty much the same as any other currency, except backed by mathematics instead of a central bank. All currencies to me are simply shared mental constructs that only have value because of a system-wide shared belief that they do. This is true even for currencies backed by something physical like gold, which also has no intrinsic survival value (i.e. I can't eat it or sleep in it or defend myself from animals with it). I have significantly less faith in the USD than when I bought them and I like diversification. I like to think of it like the elevator in space analogy for special relativity - is it that the BTC price is volatile from the perspective of the USD, or is it that the USD is volatile from the perspective of BTC? :D
I really think spectators have little helpful insight into cryptocurrency. Just buying a little bit, trying it out, can really go a long way to understanding something. And then you hold it for a year or two and are quite a bit more intrigued by, if nothing else, the price. My siblings are this way. They purchased just a couple hundred bucks 4 years ago. They still maintain a little allocation to crypto, but they understand it 10x better than my cousins who have never tried it.
I am not sure I agree with you. Although it has somewhat happened to me. I was pressed by respected friends to allocate a bit to it. And eventually I saw the potential and bought more. Now that it has gone up in value I would say I am likely more biased to see btc in a bullish manner. It has made me wealthier. However, that bias is probably as much delusion as it is better understanding of btc because I hold some.

I will say holding it, moving it to cold storage and back does give me a feel for the capabilities of this decentralized, open source technology. This understanding through experience is certainly more thorough than I could have from simply reading articles and forums.
PA86
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:22 pm

Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by PA86 »

I held through this drop but didn't have the stomach to put more in.
ohboy!
Posts: 582
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:21 pm

Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by ohboy! »

PA86 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:15 am I held through this drop but didn't have the stomach to put more in.
This market is super volatile. Have a plan and stay the course.

Owning crypto for the past years has made my ship fearless of storms. I can run square into the crypto doom iceburg and my ship will not sink. Big waves are normal on my journey. As others have said this has translated well into all financial seas.
bogivan
Posts: 187
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:17 am

Re: If you bought Bitcoin, when do you plan to sell?

Post by bogivan »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:54 am
bogivan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:44 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:22 am Is it Institutional investors or FOMOs buying in their IRAs. Any links that give proof of your statement? Real links and not some fake news feed please.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/g ... r-BB1cz3qz

GBTC's new CEO says:
We’ve started to see participation not just from the hedge fund segment, which we’ve long seen participation from, but now it’s recently from other institutions, pensions and endowments
I guess it isn't direct proof - the new CEO could be exaggerating, but presumably he can't stretch the truth too much without potentially getting in trouble with shareholders/SEC. I guess we'll find out over the next quarter whether more MassMutual-style announcements or quieter holding disclosures start to roll out...

Also, Morgan Stanley also just disclosed a 10%+ stake in MicroStrategy. Perhaps they like Business Intelligence software all of a sudden, but it probably has more to do with MSTR's new BTC balance sheet:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1cAVfs
The second article has some decent info. Thanks for sharing. The first article is very vague and speculative coming from a CEO that is trying to sell their product. I don't put too much weight on that one.
FWIW, here is a Reuters article from today detailing that 93% of the inflows into GBTC have been institutional in Q4 ($3 billion out of the total $3.3 billion):

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearc ... t=COMBINED&
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