Good one, always fun picking over past even semi-predictions. Note: I could also easily have said something like that in late March. I would also have thought a stock comeback as big as we've had since then would depend on better news on the medical front than has been the case. But I would credit myself with admitting I had no idea where the stock market would be by early June, and no reason to think I had any special insight into whether 'the market is too optimistic given the grim reality' which a small legion of (now less vocal) posters were saying back then. Realizing our ignorance about the future and general lack of ability to see it any better than the market does, which isn't to say the market somehow sees it clearly either, is the key.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu May 28, 2020 10:10 amOr they could not announce a cure and it could shoot up to 3,000 anyway.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:17 am I would go back and look at your financial plan. What does your plan say to do whenever you believe you can predict the future?
Who cares what happens in the next hour, day, week, month, or year? They could announce a cure tomorrow and the SPX could shoot right back up to over 3,000 very quickly. I would advise that you stick to your financial plan.
Of course the market still could be 'too optimistic'. And besides the future twists and turns of COVID v the economy, some new serious crisis could emerge that's only indirectly related, or even not related, but piled on top of the challenges of COVID. As always. I'm not a big one for drawing strong lessons from 'history' (when that really means a statistically insignificant number of non-overlapping 20-30 yr periods in just one country, as in 'the Great Depression is the worst that could ever happen, which it's not). But I think a broader consensus can form around the obvious fact that we don't know, and if your financial survival actually depends on evaluating current events and guessing future ones, wrt to asset vales, better than the market does, you're probably toast.