My First Annuity

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Do you think I'll be buying my first annuity as a result of this challenge?

Yes
2
4%
Yes
2
4%
No
41
91%
 
Total votes: 45

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Allan Roth
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My First Annuity

Post by Allan Roth »

I've been challenged to keep an open mind and learn how to earn 8% annually without risk. I put up $100,000 of my own money for this challenge.

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/bl ... blog-river
livesoft
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Post by livesoft »

I guess I would like to interview 5 to 10 folks that this annuity idea has been sold to over the last 5 years.
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Allan Roth
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Post by Allan Roth »

livesoft wrote:I guess I would like to interview 5 to 10 folks that this annuity idea has been sold to over the last 5 years.
Great idea - but I'd have to choose the clients. I'm sure he as 5 or 10 people who don't get it yet.
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HueyLD
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Post by HueyLD »

How about a NET return of 8% that allows you to take out the gains Tax Free for retirement income, with NO downside market risk.
Hi Allan,

I am waiting for your update and it's driving me nuts. :wink:

It sounds too good to be true, as the old saying goes. But I am going to have an open mind, just like the rest of us.
Levett
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Post by Levett »

Here's some language from your own link.

"I conceded that a low cost immediate annuity could have its place under certain circumstances including being over the age of 70 and needing longevity insurance."

And yet there you go again, leading off your link with the general (and ambiguous) term "annuities," once again leaving the implication hanging out there that you just may mean all "annuities."

Your challenge is between yourself and one Mr. Brett Anderson, whom I don't know nor need to know. Tell me why your personal challenge should be of any interest to me as an investor/annuitant.

The recent thread here at BH on Walter Updegrave's sensible piece was far more interesting.

Good luck with your $100K. Bob U.

Edit: Here's the Updegrave thread. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... ht=#560809
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Re: My First Annuity

Post by Default User BR »

Daretobedull wrote:I've been challenged to keep an open mind and learn how to earn 8% annually without risk. I put up $100,000 of my own money for this challenge.
Oh no! It's a "To Be Continued" episode. I hate that. I'll be all anxious until the next installment.



Brian
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Allan Roth
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Post by Allan Roth »

bob u. wrote:Here's some language from your own link.

"I conceded that a low cost immediate annuity could have its place under certain circumstances including being over the age of 70 and needing longevity insurance."

And yet there you go again, leading off your link with the general (and ambiguous) term "annuities," once again leaving the implication hanging out there that you just may mean all "annuities."

Your challenge is between yourself and one Mr. Brett Anderson, whom I don't know nor need to know. Tell me why your personal challenge should be of any interest to me as an investor/annuitant.

The recent thread here at BH on Walter Updegrave's sensible piece was far more interesting.

Good luck with your $100K. Bob U.

Edit: Here's the Updegrave thread. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... ht=#560809
Bob,

I don't care what he calls it - an immediate annuity, variable annuity, Equity Life Annuity, or a pretzel. If it gets me 8% annually without risk, I'll buy it!

I may be totally wrong, but I thought it would be of interest because it was a real challenge with a real proposal, rather than just another article. I'd love nothing more than to write about how wrong I am.

Allan
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Post by kenbrumy »

Daretobedull wrote:
Bob,

I don't care what he calls it - an immediate annuity, variable annuity, Equity Life Annuity, or a pretzel. If it gets me 8% annually without risk, I'll buy it!

I may be totally wrong, but I thought it would be of interest because it was a real challenge with a real proposal, rather than just another article. I'd love nothing more than to write about how wrong I am.

Allan
My father-in-law bought a great variable annuity that paid 5% without risk. He kept talking about it when we were going over his finances. The only problem was it was 5% the first year and it was paying 2% when I looked into it. Of course, the return was before annuity fees of ~1.75%.

In retrospect, his buying the annuity was the first irrefutable symptom of his Alzheimers.
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Post by dpbsmith »

Daretobedull wrote:I don't care what he calls it - an immediate annuity, variable annuity, Equity Life Annuity, or a pretzel. If it gets me 8% annually without risk, I'll buy it!

I may be totally wrong, but I thought it would be of interest because it was a real challenge with a real proposal, rather than just another article. I'd love nothing more than to write about how wrong I am.
Yes, I am interested in your posting, and thanks for involving us, and I'll be interested to see the followup.

But of course I have some sour, skeptical remarks.

First, remember the bad old days when car dealers were allowed to say their loans were "6%" when, under the later Truth-in-Lending laws, they'd have had to call them "12% API?" Because they were able to bamboozle people into thinking that 18% added to a 3-year loan was "6% interest," ignoring the fact that the loan amount was continuously being paid down.

Well, as I'm sure you understand, SPIAs have a similar issue. They have a high percentage payout even though they may have a boringly low percentage interest rate on the underlying investment, because those payouts include a return of your principal. That doesn't make SPIAs a Bad Thing. I think it makes them a Good Thing. You can pay the grocery bills with return of principal just as well as you can with interest, and of course the great thing about an SPIA is it doesn't stop when all of the principal has been returned. But I've seen quite a few ads from charities that should know better that describe the payouts from their charitable gift annuities as "interest."

If the annuity being pitched to you isn't an outright scam, I suspect there will be some phonus balonus about the 8% and that it will include return of principal. It's probably going to be some lousy complicated hybrid product with an SPIA in it that will be clearly less good than concocting the same mixture yourself.

Second, "you can't cheat an honest man." I think that the only safe thing to do with a con man, a Nigerian spammer, or a Bernard Madoff is to run. These people are supersalesmen. You are engaging in bravado in assuming that your cold logic and sales resistance will always prevail against their golden tongue. You're staking $100,000 against a good article that you'll be able to see the catch.

See, I have a friend, who goes to time-share pitches just to get the free dinner. She says she just tells the salesperson "I'm just here for the free dinner" and they go away and leave her alone. But it transpires that she owns a time-share which she bought at one of these dinners. It's not completely clear how this happened, but it did.

Personally, I would no more keep an open mind about variable annuities than I would keep an open mind about perpetual motion machines. (Yes, they are still pitching perpetual motion machines; the new phrase is "overunity;" search YouTube for numerous videos of big overunity engines cranking out power out of nothing). If someone said "keep an open mind," I cannot imagine saying "OK, here's $100,000, I'll invest it in your overunity engine if you can prove to me that it works." Best case, I waste a lot of time putting in hard work solving a tough and deliberately obfuscated college physics problem. Worst case, I invest $100,000.

So I admire your steely nerve in putting up $100,000, and I voted "no" because I think there will be a transparent problem with this annuity which you will see through effortlessly. But like Nathan Detroit in Guys and Dolls, you might take the bet and end up with an ear full of cider.
Last edited by dpbsmith on Wed Sep 23, 2009 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Levett
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Post by Levett »

Hi Allan,

I am not, nor ever have been, Brett Anderson.

I can also think of a wiser use of an extra $100K--like splitting it ten ways to the charities that were screwed by a fellow (in prison) whose initials are BM (how appropriate!) Bob U.
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Intelligence and guts

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Allen:

I respect a man with intelligence and guts!
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grabiner
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Re: My First Annuity

Post by grabiner »

Daretobedull wrote:I've been challenged to keep an open mind and learn how to earn 8% annually without risk. I put up $100,000 of my own money for this challenge.

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/bl ... blog-river
One reason not to take on the challenge is that the a likely cause for losing your investment will make it hard to get back anything you lost. If you die, you won't get your guaranteed return.
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nisiprius
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Post by nisiprius »

Bob U, etc. Are you actually reading the original article correctly? My understanding is that Allan Roth is an intense skeptic about variable annuities. He isn't committing anything yet: "So I gave Mr. Anderson a call this week and told him I was ready to plunk down $100,000 to buy my first annuity. All he had to do was to convince me."

Anderson made him a sales pitch of the sort that goes "I can do the impossible and I can prove it to you but I'm a busy man and won't disclose any details unless you at least nibble at the bait." The only way Roth can find out what the details are is to make a verbal commitment to buy the annuity if its what the salesperson says it is. So he's gone ahead and made a hedged verbal commitment. Who knows how this game will play out?

I'm mildly interest, just as I'm always mildly interested in deals that are too good to be true. Anything from magic Amish Mantle furnaces to ways to earn $32,186 a month at home. I'm just always curious to know what the scam is. Not foolish enough to nibble at the bait to find out. If Roth wants to nibble, I'm interested to see what he finds out.

Remember the supposedly true story of the guy that sold a product for $1 by mail with the catchline "Guaranteed to Kill Cockroaches?" It was a pair of tongue depressors and instructions to put the cockroach between the tongue depressors and squeeze.
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Oicuryy
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Post by Oicuryy »

Daretobedull wrote:Do you think I'll be buying my first annuity as a result of this challenge?
Why would a sales pitch for universal life insurance cause you to buy an annuity?

Ron
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fishndoc
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Post by fishndoc »

I'm curious how your challenge will be answered.
If you look at Mr Anderson's site, he has a collection of ambiguously described products to make us all rich.

Maybe the most interesting is his description of his "Own Banker" & "Home Wealth Management":
A wealth creation technique that has been used by the "Rich" for centuries is leveraging the value in their assets via arbitrage to create more wealth! This is the same technique banks have used for centuries. Why and How to do this for the "average" homeowner was most recently explained in the "Missed Fortune" books. This is also a great way for most people saving for retirement, to Super-Charge their savings to create more wealth and income at retirement, and is explained in Part 2 of 'Last Chance Retirement'.
I really like the "Super-Charge" phrase!
:roll:

Wayne
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Allan Roth
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Post by Allan Roth »

fishndoc wrote:I'm curious how your challenge will be answered.
If you look at Mr Anderson's site, he has a collection of ambiguously described products to make us all rich.

Maybe the most interesting is his description of his "Own Banker" & "Home Wealth Management":
A wealth creation technique that has been used by the "Rich" for centuries is leveraging the value in their assets via arbitrage to create more wealth! This is the same technique banks have used for centuries. Why and How to do this for the "average" homeowner was most recently explained in the "Missed Fortune" books. This is also a great way for most people saving for retirement, to Super-Charge their savings to create more wealth and income at retirement, and is explained in Part 2 of 'Last Chance Retirement'.
I really like the "Super-Charge" phrase!
:roll:

Wayne
"Missed Fortune 101" was one of the best bad books I ever read - really misused math and logic. I wrote about it years ago in a column called "Bad Books Make Good Reading."

http://daretobedull.com/download/Bad%20Books.pdf
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Post by auntie »

Ani interesting quote from his site:
The odds of a couple age 65 eventually needing to pay for one typical Nursing Home stay for 2 1/2 years, is 100%!
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Post by cjking »

I have no idea what the product is. But if it involves you giving money to an insurance company and them giving you 8% (nominal) return, I can believe it. It seems plausible that that could be the borrowing rate of a particular company.

Recently I looked at a "structured product" that was being offered in the UK and talked about on another forum. I realised that it came with so many guarantees and limits that in almost no circumstances would your return actually be determined by the level of the stock-market index it was supposedly linked to. The return was somewhere in the region of 7% over six years. I realised that while dressed as a psuedo-equity investment, it was in reality a Corporate bond. You gave money to the counterparty (which was an insurance company) and in almost all circumstances got 7% (or whatever it was) return over the life of the product. (In maybe something like 3% of possible futures the level of the stock index would affect what you got.) Of course if the company went bust you got nothing, as with a Corporate bond.

At that time a Corporate bond ETF was yielding nearly 7%. I pointed this out, and said a Corporate bond fund holding a diversified portfolio would be considerably safer. An advisor replied saying that clients would not be interested in a Corporate bond fund because the amount they would get back wasn't guaranteed. (I see this forum doesn't have the shoot-myself-in-the-head emoticon.)
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Post by Levett »

Nisiprius,

Context, my man. The article does not exist in isolation. As Mr. Roth has indicated, he's already made one concession based on his--at least misleadingly titled--first article.

Now we have a bit of mano a mano between Mr. Roth and another dude who sent a note that kinda reminds me of all those magical lunch and dinner invitations I get in the mail (but at least preserve a few post office jobs).

Assume Mr. Roth achieves his desire beatdown of what looks very like a strawman. Then what? What have I learned that I don't already know?

If I'm going to study annuities (of all kinds) and what use they may serve in a portfolio, I will first turn to the likes of Reichenstein, Milevsky, Updegrave, even Ibbotson and the like.

This little contest reminds me of the hilarious exchange between Owen of Glendower and Harry Hotspur in Shakespeare I Henry IV:

SCENE I. Bangor. The Archdeacon's house.

Enter HOTSPUR, WORCESTER, MORTIMER, and GLENDOWER
MORTIMER
These promises are fair, the parties sure,
And our induction full of prosperous hope.
HOTSPUR
Lord Mortimer, and cousin Glendower,
Will you sit down?
And uncle Worcester: a plague upon it!
I have forgot the map.
GLENDOWER
No, here it is.
Sit, cousin Percy; sit, good cousin Hotspur,
For by that name as oft as Lancaster
Doth speak of you, his cheek looks pale and with
A rising sigh he wisheth you in heaven.
HOTSPUR
And you in hell, as oft as he hears Owen Glendower spoke of.
GLENDOWER
I cannot blame him: at my nativity
The front of heaven was full of fiery shapes,
Of burning cressets; and at my birth
The frame and huge foundation of the earth
Shaked like a coward.
HOTSPUR
Why, so it would have done at the same season, if
your mother's cat had but kittened, though yourself
had never been born.
GLENDOWER
I say the earth did shake when I was born.
HOTSPUR
And I say the earth was not of my mind,
If you suppose as fearing you it shook.
GLENDOWER
The heavens were all on fire, the earth did tremble.
HOTSPUR
O, then the earth shook to see the heavens on fire,
And not in fear of your nativity.
Diseased nature oftentimes breaks forth
In strange eruptions; oft the teeming earth
Is with a kind of colic pinch'd and vex'd
By the imprisoning of unruly wind
Within her womb; which, for enlargement striving,
Shakes the old beldam earth and topples down
Steeples and moss-grown towers. At your birth
Our grandam earth, having this distemperature,
In passion shook.
GLENDOWER
Cousin, of many men
I do not bear these crossings. Give me leave
To tell you once again that at my birth
The front of heaven was full of fiery shapes,
The goats ran from the mountains, and the herds
Were strangely clamorous to the frighted fields.
These signs have mark'd me extraordinary;
And all the courses of my life do show
I am not in the roll of common men.
Where is he living, clipp'd in with the sea
That chides the banks of England, Scotland, Wales,
Which calls me pupil, or hath read to me?
And bring him out that is but woman's son
Can trace me in the tedious ways of art
And hold me pace in deep experiments.
HOTSPUR
I think there's no man speaks better Welsh.
I'll to dinner.
MORTIMER
Peace, cousin Percy; you will make him mad.
GLENDOWER
I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR
Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?
GLENDOWER
Why, I can teach you, cousin, to command
The devil.
HOTSPUR
And I can teach thee, coz, to shame the devil
By telling truth: tell truth and shame the devil.
If thou have power to raise him, bring him hither,
And I'll be sworn I have power to shame him hence.
O, while you live, tell truth and shame the devil!
MORTIMER
Come, come, no more of this unprofitable chat.


"Unprofitable chat," indeed. :D Bob U.
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Levett
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Post by Levett »

One thing I neglected to say about Mr. Brett Anderson (the designated strawman) is that he certainly has a remarkably colorful website.

http://www.iuldigest.com/home.php?varset=s:502-pm:p

Seeing all the blazing bells & whistles, maybe I should take a poll to see how many folks here would linger at such a site for more than 5 seconds. :lol: Bob U.
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IUL

Post by pkcrafter »

Anderson's website looks like a carnival. A quote...
The Actual Hypothetical NET IUL ROI
for the past 20 years (Male 40) =
7.86%+ per year!

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Post by GG »

There are a million annuities out there that guarantee 6%, 7%, 8%, etc. Hell, they can guarantee 25% if they want. But there are 2 problems. 1) The annuity promise is backed by the full faith and credit of the annuity company - it's not money in a seperate account. And 2) You can't just "take" out your big new balance in 10 years. You can't say: "thanks for the 8%! send me a check, it's been fun!!" How anyone is fooled by this crap is beyond me.

Think about it this way. Go home and tell your spouse - you know what, let's start an insurance company. And if he/she is game, then rally some investors and start at it. Then try to put out a product which will guarantee 8%. Print the ads - hire some agents - go for it. And when the first $100,000 comes in and the second and third, take the money and invest it in a way that you can be 100% sure you can back your 8% promise (oh - and cover expenses and commissions). What are you going to invest in?? The only way you can do it is to have some catch on how the investor takes their money out - or have enough other investors break their contracts and loose.

It's no more complicated than that.
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Post by Mel Lindauer »

Based on the poll results as of now, it appears we have two insurance agents who voted in the affirmative. You might be in trouble, Allan. :D
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Allan Roth
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Post by Allan Roth »

Mel Lindauer wrote:Based on the poll results as of now, it appears we have two insurance agents who voted in the affirmative. You might be in trouble, Allan. :D
I might be but I have three things going for me:

1) I know how to calculate an 8% IRR.
2) I can ask the agent to show me where specifically in the policy it notes the minimum payments to get me to the IRR.
3) I would take my own advice and get the agent to sign that he agrees with these guaranteed minimum cash flows I used in my IRR calculations.

I actually hope I buy this product because i want it to be real.
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Post by Ron »

Allan Roth wrote:I actually hope I buy this product because i want it to be real.
As a holder of an SPIA (at a much lower reate, but very happy with it, thank you) I also hope you are successful in your quest.

However........

- Ron
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Post by Mel Lindauer »

Allan Roth wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:Based on the poll results as of now, it appears we have two insurance agents who voted in the affirmative. You might be in trouble, Allan. :D
I might be but I have three things going for me:

1) I know how to calculate an 8% IRR.
2) I can ask the agent to show me where specifically in the policy it notes the minimum payments to get me to the IRR.
3) I would take my own advice and get the agent to sign that he agrees with these guaranteed minimum cash flows I used in my IRR calculations.

I actually hope I buy this product because i want it to be real.
Hi Again Allan:

I suspect that you'll find it's not an 8% IRR, but rather an 8% return OF your money, as in a low-rated SPIA.

See you in Dallas (I'm betting without the annuity).
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Post by Allan Roth »

Thanks Mel.

I've got my own suspicions but really trying to keep an open mind.

I've looked at dozens of insurance investments touted by financial planners (aka insurance agents).

I've also helped dozens of clients get out of insurance investments. Sometimes I even deal with the insurance company's general counsel. For something that won't shock you, they are easy to get into and very hard to get out of.
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Post by nisiprius »

Allan Roth wrote:I actually hope I buy this product because i want it to be real.
If that statement is sincere you're in genuine danger. I'm not kidding. If you even believe it is possible you're more than halfway to being conned.

It's like saying "I hope that nice Nigerian widow with that confidential business proposal, who just needs me to lend her the use of her bank account, is real. I think I'll at least take the next step and reply."

Lust for the perfectly safe investment that yields a higher return than any perfectly safe investment can yield is what makes people prey for the Madoffs of the world. As Samuel Butler wrote in his novel The Way of All Flesh,
How often do I not hear middle-aged women and quiet family men say that they have no speculative tendency; they never had touched, and never would touch, any but the very soundest, best reputed investments, and as for unlimited liability, oh, dear! dear! and they throw up their hands and eyes. Whenever a person is heard to talk thus he may be recognised as the easy prey of the first adventurer who comes across him; he will commonly, indeed, wind up his discourse by saying that in spite of all his natural caution, and his well knowing how foolish speculation is, yet there are some investments which are called speculative but in reality are not so, and he will pull out of his pocket the prospectus of a Cornish gold mine.
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Post by bob90245 »

nisiprius wrote:Lust for the perfectly safe investment that yields a higher return than any perfectly safe investment can yield is what makes people prey for the Madoffs of the world.
Good reminder.

Allan, have you mentioned to Mr. Anderson that a no risk 8% return seems somewhat supsiciously similar to a Madoff scheme? If any group of individuals organized as a corporation can generate 8% riskless return for themselves, why would they want to share it with outsiders?
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.
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Post by cjking »

bob90245 wrote:Allan, have you mentioned to Mr. Anderson that a no risk 8% return seems somewhat supsiciously similar to a Madoff scheme? If any group of individuals organized as a corporation can generate 8% riskless return for themselves, why would they want to share it with outsiders?
8% nominal is only 5% real, slightly less than companies have earned on equity, on average.

UK banks were forced to borrow from the government at a rate of 11% at the height of the credit crunch, so, as I said earlier, it seems quite plausible to me that there are undercapitalised insurance companies willing to promise 8% to lay there hands on cash.

What is the current yield on US insurance company corporate bonds? Just in the last month in the FT I read of a category of UK bank debt that is currently paying 10%.
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Post by bob90245 »

cjking wrote:UK banks were forced to borrow from the government at a rate of 11% at the height of the credit crunch, so, as I said earlier, it seems quite plausible to me that there are undercapitalised insurance companies willing to promise 8% to lay there hands on cash.

What is the current yield on US insurance company corporate bonds? Just in the last month in the FT I read of a category of UK bank debt that is currently paying 10%.
What is the threshold for junk bonds? A corporation having to entice investors with 10% yield is likely on shaky ground. Very far from being riskless. If that were the case, I would be more concerned with return OF my money, rather than return ON my money.
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.
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Post by nisiprius »

cjking wrote:
bob90245 wrote:Allan, have you mentioned to Mr. Anderson that a no risk 8% return seems somewhat supsiciously similar to a Madoff scheme? If any group of individuals organized as a corporation can generate 8% riskless return for themselves, why would they want to share it with outsiders?
8% nominal is only 5% real, slightly less than companies have earned on equity, on average.
Which is exactly why it's impossible. You can't get the risk premium without the risk. It's as impossible as perpetual motion. If it's earning 8%, there's risk. The only question is whether you can assess it accurately. If you think it's riskless, either you've blinded yourself to it or someone's hiding from you or it's an outright scam.
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Post by grabiner »

Allan Roth wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:Based on the poll results as of now, it appears we have two insurance agents who voted in the affirmative. You might be in trouble, Allan. :D
I might be but I have three things going for me:

1) I know how to calculate an 8% IRR.
2) I can ask the agent to show me where specifically in the policy it notes the minimum payments to get me to the IRR.
3) I would take my own advice and get the agent to sign that he agrees with these guaranteed minimum cash flows I used in my IRR calculations.
The agent's guarantee may be worthless, as if the guarantee doesn't work out, the agent may be impossible to sue for the difference.

Even if the return is backed by the issuing company, it's only as good as the company itself. There are many companies which issue bonds with a promise to pay an 8% return (which I believe would be BB-rated bonds now), but some of them default and not only quit paying the 8% return but fail to return part of the principal.

If there is an annuity with an 8% return backed by the state guarantee association, and not terminating on your death, then you would be safe investing in it but the state guarantee association probably has trouble on its hands.
Wiki David Grabiner
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nisiprius
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Post by nisiprius »

I just figured out how they guarantee 8%. I bet they invest in these. (And pocket 4% for themselves! Sweet!)
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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