Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

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clip651
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by clip651 »

skylerf wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:38 am As for when to buy back in, please PM me and I will tell you my strategy. As with other areas in finance, there's quite a bit of planning, prepping, and patience.

I'm looking for open discourse, but I'm tired of being shouted down by those who are sticking to their dogma. While the dogma works for most people most of the time, it doesn't mean that it'll work for everyone all the time. It's similar to another dogma: "All debt is evil for everyone all the time." Never-mind that there are people who have mortgages that live below their means.
If you are looking for truly open discourse about market timing, you are in the wrong forum. While market timing gets discussed here on bogleheads, "never try to time the market" is one of the guiding principles of the investing philosophy here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy
and so many members are likely to try to guide the discussion back in that direction.

It's a guiding principle here for a good reason - to keep the average investor from getting themselves into trouble and having worse (on average) results than they would have by picking an appropriate asset allocation for them, investing as they have money available, and buying and holding, etc. Some folks may get lucky and have market timing work for them. But market timing is not good advice for most, and folks here on bogleheads will continue to try to make that truth known to any who are willing to listen.
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bluquark
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by bluquark »

There's also a common problem with market timing discussion which is what Elysium was joking about: successful timers pop in after the fact to boast, while the unsuccessful stay quiet.

I applaud the original OP of this thread for preannouncing his strategy, allowing us to see the mixed result as the strategy evolved over time, which is realistically the kind of thing most of us can expect if we try. Whereas for the majority of timers who did not publicly preannounce, for every skylerf there might be ten other cagey or inactive posters lurking on Bogleheads who did not succeed and chose not to advertise that embarrassing fact.
Last edited by bluquark on Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB
BogleFan510
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by BogleFan510 »

The pandemic is not over yet. Hopefully the economy survives intact. Interesting historical thread though.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by EnjoyIt »

Elysium wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:59 pm
skylerf wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:59 am Market timing has worked out incredibly well in the past 2 years for me. I bought tons of equity during the Dec 2018 dip to a 70% equity, 20% bond, 10% cash allocation. Then started selling some equity starting on Dec 2019. By Feb 2020, I was at 50% equity, 25% bond, and 25% cash. In March, I slowly ramped up my buying of equities until I almost ran out of cash. I also sold bonds since they were spiking in price. I made the most purchases when the market was 30% down. Now I’m at 80% equity, 15% bonds, and 5% cash.

I’ll probably get trolled on this forum, but I’ve learned alot about investing from Bogleheads. I also believe that investing is a contrarian’s game: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
I hear you, totally, been doing this for 25 years!!! first started investing 85% into equity and 15% long term bonds from 95 to 99 heavily tilted to growth stocks, december '99 I sold all growth and moved into value stocks, especially small value, profited massively in the growth rally from 95-99 then again in the value rally from 2000-07, then december 2007 sold down equities on a hunch all the way down to 30% equities and 70% long term treasury bonds, held it through to march 2009, and on a hunch again bought back 85% equities, this time 50/50 growth and value tilted heavily to US equities, then by 2012 shifted entirely into us growth stocks 85% and 15% long bonds, until february 2020, and again got a hunch so sold down to 20% equities, only to buy back heavily end of march. This has been too easy, but since I forgot to post everything before hand no one really believes me, oh well, but a win is a win, right :twisted:
Here is an idea. Start a thread today. Call it the Elysium market timing is easy thread. Post all your moves in real time. Maybe some of us can learn something.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
rockstar
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by rockstar »

BogleFan510 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:29 pm The pandemic is not over yet. Hopefully the economy survives intact. Interesting historical thread though.
What's interesting is that the number of threads popping up with people saying their going to bail seems to always happen within a month or two of the market actually dropping. You can almost use the frequency of these threads to build a model to predict the market going down. Go back and look at the folks saying they're going to sell around January and February of this year. It's astonishing. Then, look at the ones popping up around August.
Elysium
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Elysium »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:47 pm Here is an idea. Start a thread today. Call it the Elysium market timing is easy thread. Post all your moves in real time. Maybe some of us can learn something.
My "market timing" claims were of course sarcastic, anyone who knows my posting history would know that. 8-)

I was pointing out how some people always turn up after the fact claiming to be successful at timing, but when asked for real time follow-up they always disappear.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

I did and didn't fare so well, this year. I sold to 0% equity in December and then avoided the COVID drop. I invested incrementally as it dropped and got it all back in by somewhere in the 2300s, which is all documented here. I then incrementally pulled back again until somewhere 3230-3250 I had 20% invested. Everything looked brilliant to that point, but I was not brilliant after that point. I imagined that the markets would not rally beyond pre-rally highs, and thus felt that the upper limit was only marginally higher while the bottom could fall back out. Obviously, that turned out to be wrong, and we are now over our pre-COVID highs. So, that's where I stayed while it rallied another 11-12% up to this point. What was 20% of my portfolio grew to represent ~22% of my portfolio.

Despite the lack of brilliance after reducing my equity exposure, I'd still consider the returns on this year to be excellent, all things considered (~21%). However, compared to most investors who remained invested, that's only a marginal gain, whereas my timing during the COVID drop put me up considerably more.

I still have no interest in investing more at this point. Buffett indicator at 177% and Shiller just over 33. I am back to considering a return to 0% equities. I cannot understand how the rally has exceeded pre-COVID highs, and I'm not expecting the market to rally greatly from here, but with the proposed lock down, the risk is high, and reward is low.

Edits: As I reviewed the actual moves I made, I guess it wasn't as bad as I originally thought. It looks like I only dropped to a 20% equity position on 29 July when the S&P was just over 3,250. Previous to that, I traded a portion out on 8 June at an S&P of 3232.39. So, the market's only up 11-12% from those dates, and I captured 1/5 of that. That's actually pretty satisfying, looking back.
Last edited by ValuationsMatter on Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Tamalak
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Tamalak »

If OP actually just skipped Feb and March like he said he would, he'd have made a bundle :sharebeer
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by UpperNwGuy »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:57 pm I did and didn't fare so well, this year. I sold to 0% equity in December and then avoided the COVID drop. I invested incrementally as it dropped and got it all back in by somewhere in the 2300s, which is all documented here. I then rode it up to 2800-2900 and pulled back again to 20% invested. That's where I stayed while it rallied up to this point. I'd consider the returns on this year to be excellent, all things considered (~21%). However, compared to most investors who remained invested, that's only a marginal gain, whereas my timing during the COVID drop put me up considerably more.

I still have no interest in investing more. I am back to considering a return to 0% equities. I cannot understand how the rally has exceeded pre-COVID highs, and am not expecting the market to rally greatly from here. Risk is high, and reward is low.
I would modify your last sentence to say that risk is moderate, and reward is moderate but possibly high.
TheoLeo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by TheoLeo »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:57 pm I did and didn't fare so well, this year. I sold to 0% equity in December and then avoided the COVID drop. I invested incrementally as it dropped and got it all back in by somewhere in the 2300s, which is all documented here. I then rode it up to 2800-2900 and pulled back again to 20% invested. Everything looked brilliant to that point, but I was not brilliant beyond that point. I imagined that the markets would not rally beyond pre-rally highs, and thus felt that the upper limit was only marginally higher while the bottom could fall back out. Obviously, that turned out to be wrong. So, that's where I stayed while it rallied up to this point. What was 20% of my portfolio grew to represent ~22% of my portfolio.

Despite the lack of brilliance after reducing my equity exposure, I'd still consider the returns on this year to be excellent, all things considered (~21%). However, compared to most investors who remained invested, that's only a marginal gain, whereas my timing during the COVID drop put me up considerably more.

I still have no interest in investing more. I am back to considering a return to 0% equities. I cannot understand how the rally has exceeded pre-COVID highs, and am not expecting the market to rally greatly from here. Risk is high, and reward is low.
I think you are making a mistake trying to time the market again. Being a bear might feel prudent and smart, but isn´t. I recently watched an interview with Warren Buffett where he talked about stocks being cheap compared to bonds. The interview was from the beginning of 2019, so after stocks recovered from the 2018 downturn. The host asked Mr. Buffett if he was buying stocks then. Buffett said no, ´cause he doesn´t like buying stocks when they are climbing higher each day. Except for a short period in March 2020, stocks haven´t been this cheap again and likely won´t ever be.
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

I know, Theo. It wouldn't be Bogleheads if everyone thought timing the market was a great idea. I very easily can be wrong. The fed and congress are powering this rally with trillions in stimulus, and my contention is that stimulus doesn't work forever. We could see a mega-stimulus that sends stocks soaring with an S&P over 4k. However, if it's going to swing that much, I think the opposite 400 point swing is more likely. All it would take is going back into a national 4-6 week lock down. Even if we don't, it's just hard to imagine that the economy is every bit as strong and vibrant as it seemed to be in February despite the rolling lock downs, and massive unemployment, retail closures, etc... So, my money remains where my mouth is. I might even pull back a bit more.
rich126
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by rich126 »

I think the next 3-4 months will be "interesting". As someone nearing retirement, I'm less concerned about missing out on gains from this point of the market than seeing a sizable drop. Obviously anyone younger should just ignore things and continue onward. I just think a variety of factors are of a huge concern.

A lot of these decisions will ultimately depend on the final start/end points. Right now it looks smart to have held through the Feb/March drop but things could change going forward. Right now we haven't solved most of the issues that were around when the pandemic began. Some may be more optimistic with a vaccine but that is still down the road.

We'll also see if those "stretching" for high yields will pay a price. Lately the market has been swinging a bit towards value stocks and banking. JPM, Berkshire, etc. have gone up quite a bit recently. In the last 3 months Berkshire has gone up 11.9% compared to SP500 7%. Still trailing badly for the YTD although they are equal over the last 5 yrs.

Riding it out has worked so far.
marcopolo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by marcopolo »

rich126 wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:26 pm I think the next 3-4 months will be "interesting". As someone nearing retirement, I'm less concerned about missing out on gains from this point of the market than seeing a sizable drop. Obviously anyone younger should just ignore things and continue onward. I just think a variety of factors are of a huge concern.

A lot of these decisions will ultimately depend on the final start/end points. Right now it looks smart to have held through the Feb/March drop but things could change going forward. Right now we haven't solved most of the issues that were around when the pandemic began. Some may be more optimistic with a vaccine but that is still down the road.

We'll also see if those "stretching" for high yields will pay a price. Lately the market has been swinging a bit towards value stocks and banking. JPM, Berkshire, etc. have gone up quite a bit recently. In the last 3 months Berkshire has gone up 11.9% compared to SP500 7%. Still trailing badly for the YTD although they are equal over the last 5 yrs.

Riding it out has worked so far.
I always think the next 3-4 months are going to be interesting.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Financologist
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Financologist »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:51 pm I know, Theo. It wouldn't be Bogleheads if everyone thought timing the market was a great idea. I very easily can be wrong. The fed and congress are powering this rally with trillions in stimulus, and my contention is that stimulus doesn't work forever. We could see a mega-stimulus that sends stocks soaring with an S&P over 4k. However, if it's going to swing that much, I think the opposite 400 point swing is more likely. All it would take is going back into a national 4-6 week lock down. Even if we don't, it's just hard to imagine that the economy is every bit as strong and vibrant as it seemed to be in February despite the rolling lock downs, and massive unemployment, retail closures, etc... So, my money remains where my mouth is. I might even pull back a bit more.

Why do you believe a 4-6 week lockdown would negatively impact markets? These last nine months have showcased the resilience and adaptability of public companies. I'm not referring to stock prices.. rather earnings and earnings growth following disruption.

I have no idea which way the market is zigging or zagging next, but learn again and again (and again and again) to expect the unexpected.

In the meanwhile, trying to stick to 65% stocks/35% bonds and cash.. forcing me to sell stocks of late.
TheoLeo
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by TheoLeo »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:51 pm I know, Theo. It wouldn't be Bogleheads if everyone thought timing the market was a great idea. I very easily can be wrong. The fed and congress are powering this rally with trillions in stimulus, and my contention is that stimulus doesn't work forever. We could see a mega-stimulus that sends stocks soaring with an S&P over 4k. However, if it's going to swing that much, I think the opposite 400 point swing is more likely. All it would take is going back into a national 4-6 week lock down. Even if we don't, it's just hard to imagine that the economy is every bit as strong and vibrant as it seemed to be in February despite the rolling lock downs, and massive unemployment, retail closures, etc... So, my money remains where my mouth is. I might even pull back a bit more.
There might be another pullback, or not. In the meantime, stocks will keep going up because low bond yields are a secular trend in a low-growth world where all the wealth is concentrated in the hands of aging societies and several major governments are too deep in debt to let bond yields go up in case of an inflation. There simply is no alternative to stocks. I think this might be the last decade where people can load up on stocks for a reasonable price. Ten years from now, bonds might continue to yield -1 % to +1 % and stocks without growth potential, like consumer stapels, will sell for PEs of 40 to 50. But you do what you feel comfortable with and maybe you will be rewarded for it :sharebeer
garlandwhizzer
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by garlandwhizzer »

Market timing is tempting, no doubt. In spite of basically being a buy-and-hold Boglehead I can't resist doing it on rare occasions usually when market sentiment gets extreme in one direction. Sometimes it has worked out well for me. Other times, I pulled the trigger and fired a blank. I suspect on average most who try it will wind up doing worse than if they had stayed the course with a solid well-thought-out portfolio.

If you decide to try market timing I suggest you do it rarely and modestly only when conditions. It may be helpful if you have considerable years of experience in observing market action up and down. Sometimes the market does a head fake, but other times it starts a real persistent change in direction. Hard to tell those 2 apart. It's important IMO to realize the rather tight limits on short term market insight for all humans. All of us are caught in a constant struggle between emotion and some semblance of rational analysis about investing decisions. Effective market timing involves three things. First accurate insight into where the market is currently failing to perceive the future and erring in pricing assets. Second picking exactly how to change your assets to maximally take advantage of this pricing error. Third how long to stay with it--whether to and when to revert back into your standard portfolio allocations. It can work nicely when you get all 3 right, but the odds of market timing success are probably about a coin flip or less.

Garland Whizzer
ValuationsMatter
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by ValuationsMatter »

Financologist wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:34 pm Why do you believe a 4-6 week lockdown would negatively impact markets? These last nine months have showcased the resilience and adaptability of public companies. I'm not referring to stock prices.. rather earnings and earnings growth following disruption.
You have a point, because in many ways it seems like it should have been more catastrophic than it was.

However, in my opinion, your point doesn't go very far. We did not see resilience in brick and mortar businesses, hotels, airlines, sports and performing arts, restaurants, many medical practices, amusement parks and casinos, other tourism-based economies, and especially small businesses who are less able to navigate the free-for-all fiscal stimulus and regulatory life preservers that the major corporations could.

The resilience seen in the rest of the economy came down to 1 thing: fiscal stimulus. The government bailed most people out. When push comes to shove, you cannot print your way out of a lack of productivity. You're right that earnings and earnings growth fared better than expected, but please show me how to make a case that the markets' prices aren't dissociated from those earnings? What are we factoring in? Massive growth through, despite oncoming lock downs? It's certainly not earnings alone, because current earnings per share for the S&P500 are lower than they have been since 2016(https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-month). The government can float the economy for a short time, but in the end, people must get back to work. This economy was always a paycheck to paycheck economy, and the people can manage a 1 month lock down, or a 2 month lock down with help from the government, but now the rent is due!
Financologist
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Financologist »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:43 pm
Financologist wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:34 pm Why do you believe a 4-6 week lockdown would negatively impact markets? These last nine months have showcased the resilience and adaptability of public companies. I'm not referring to stock prices.. rather earnings and earnings growth following disruption.
You have a point, because in many ways it seems like it should have been more catastrophic than it was.

However, in my opinion, your point doesn't go very far. We did not see resilience in brick and mortar businesses, hotels, airlines, sports and performing arts, restaurants, many medical practices, amusement parks and casinos, other tourism-based economies, and especially small businesses who are less able to navigate the free-for-all fiscal stimulus and regulatory life preservers that the major corporations could.

The resilience seen in the rest of the economy came down to 1 thing: fiscal stimulus. The government bailed most people out. When push comes to shove, you cannot print your way out of a lack of productivity. You're right that earnings and earnings growth fared better than expected, but please show me how to make a case that the markets' prices aren't dissociated from those earnings? What are we factoring in? Massive growth through, despite oncoming lock downs? It's certainly not earnings alone, because current earnings per share for the S&P500 are lower than they have been since 2016(https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-month). The government can float the economy for a short time, but in the end, people must get back to work. This economy was always a paycheck to paycheck economy, and the people can manage a 1 month lock down, or a 2 month lock down with help from the government, but now the rent is due!
The point for stock investors is that public companies can be relied upon to generate earnings over the long-haul. Current earnings are only a small part of a valuation. If there is confidence that despite disruption earnings will rebound and be strong over the long-term then the thesis for stock investing remains strong. If at the same time bonds offer little yield and governments can be relied upon to provide monetary and fiscal stimulus then you can put more checks in the stocks column when trying to understand why investors pay the multiples they are willing to pay right now.

And don't forget.. the most powerful people in the world are heavily invested in global stock markets. And one rule that seems to always hold is that... fat cats always get fatter ( so do what the fat cats do).
rascott
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by rascott »

ValuationsMatter wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:43 pm
Financologist wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:34 pm Why do you believe a 4-6 week lockdown would negatively impact markets? These last nine months have showcased the resilience and adaptability of public companies. I'm not referring to stock prices.. rather earnings and earnings growth following disruption.
You have a point, because in many ways it seems like it should have been more catastrophic than it was.

However, in my opinion, your point doesn't go very far. We did not see resilience in brick and mortar businesses, hotels, airlines, sports and performing arts, restaurants, many medical practices, amusement parks and casinos, other tourism-based economies, and especially small businesses who are less able to navigate the free-for-all fiscal stimulus and regulatory life preservers that the major corporations could.

The resilience seen in the rest of the economy came down to 1 thing: fiscal stimulus. The government bailed most people out. When push comes to shove, you cannot print your way out of a lack of productivity. You're right that earnings and earnings growth fared better than expected, but please show me how to make a case that the markets' prices aren't dissociated from those earnings? What are we factoring in? Massive growth through, despite oncoming lock downs? It's certainly not earnings alone, because current earnings per share for the S&P500 are lower than they have been since 2016(https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-month). The government can float the economy for a short time, but in the end, people must get back to work. This economy was always a paycheck to paycheck economy, and the people can manage a 1 month lock down, or a 2 month lock down with help from the government, but now the rent is due!

They'll be another stimulus/ unemployment extension..... and then with the vaccine news we will be more or less out of this mess by middle of next year. Stock market will already be looking out at 2022 earnings in a few months.
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HomerJ
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by HomerJ »

rockstar wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:53 pm
BogleFan510 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:29 pm The pandemic is not over yet. Hopefully the economy survives intact. Interesting historical thread though.
What's interesting is that the number of threads popping up with people saying their going to bail seems to always happen within a month or two of the market actually dropping.
This appears to be incorrect, based on my experience on these boards.

There are ALWAYS threads popping up with people saying they are going to bail.

And many times the market just keeps going up instead.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Marseille07
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Marseille07 »

Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
investingdad
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by investingdad »

I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
RadAudit
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by RadAudit »

investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
Past results do not indicate future performance. :wink: But, in the case of buy and hold, that's probably just a disclaimer in case it all goes to pot.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.
csmath
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by csmath »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:24 am
rockstar wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:53 pm
BogleFan510 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:29 pm The pandemic is not over yet. Hopefully the economy survives intact. Interesting historical thread though.
What's interesting is that the number of threads popping up with people saying their going to bail seems to always happen within a month or two of the market actually dropping.
This appears to be incorrect, based on my experience on these boards.

There are ALWAYS threads popping up with people saying they are going to bail.

And many times the market just keeps going up instead.
I think some people "see what they want to see" because they start looking for it when they themselves are emotionally driven to do so.
carminered2019
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by carminered2019 »

investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
I am surprised you did not throw in the whole kitchen sink into the market during March low after what you saw from previous recessions. I was down 800k and threw in almost everything I got into the market in March and now gained 10x my annual expenses YTD.
investingdad
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by investingdad »

vipertom1970 wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:12 pm
investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
I am surprised you did not throw in the whole kitchen sink into the market during March low after what you saw from previous recessions. I was down 800k and threw in almost everything I got into the market in March and now gained 10x my annual expenses YTD.
We were already fully invested. There was nothing to add. I didn't change my allocations or sell. So, nothing.

Knowing it will recover is one thing.
Knowing WHEN is another.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by EnjoyIt »

This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble. For my own sake I hope it doesn't, but it might.

always get be much longer than just a few months. Longer may even be longer than just a few years. I really hope we never learn that lesson, AGAIN.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
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calvin+hobbes
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by calvin+hobbes »

vipertom1970 wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:12 pm
investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
I am surprised you did not throw in the whole kitchen sink into the market during March low after what you saw from previous recessions. I was down 800k and threw in almost everything I got into the market in March and now gained 10x my annual expenses YTD.
I remember your posts from that time. Well done. Did you rebuy that 911 yet?
YRT70
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by YRT70 »

investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
I'm saving this quote.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 pm This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble.
That's one of the biggest reasons why I elected to use a trend following strategy as opposed to buy-and-hold. The market may indeed recover at some point, but it's very plausible that it might not recover in time to keep me from experiencing significant financial problems (e.g. sequence of returns risk). Granted, there are no guarantees that my strategy would be an improvement in such a situation, but I believe that it would.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Marseille07 »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:42 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 pm This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble.
That's one of the biggest reasons why I elected to use a trend following strategy as opposed to buy-and-hold. The market may indeed recover at some point, but it's very plausible that it might not recover in time to keep me from experiencing significant financial problems (e.g. sequence of returns risk). Granted, there are no guarantees that my strategy would be an improvement in such a situation, but I believe that it would.
What's the context here? I thought the notion of Boglehead-style investing is essentially B&H but you hedge the market-not-recovering risk by mixing in bonds in your AA. At the end of the day though, both stocks & bonds have to appreciate long-term.
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willthrill81
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by willthrill81 »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:50 am
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:42 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 pm This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble.
That's one of the biggest reasons why I elected to use a trend following strategy as opposed to buy-and-hold. The market may indeed recover at some point, but it's very plausible that it might not recover in time to keep me from experiencing significant financial problems (e.g. sequence of returns risk). Granted, there are no guarantees that my strategy would be an improvement in such a situation, but I believe that it would.
What's the context here? I thought the notion of Boglehead-style investing is essentially B&H but you hedge the market-not-recovering risk by mixing in bonds in your AA. At the end of the day though, both stocks & bonds have to appreciate long-term.
I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool Boglehead. My strategy is outlined here, but I no longer discuss the specifics on the open forum. PM me if you wish to discuss it.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Marseille07
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Marseille07 »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:51 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:50 am
willthrill81 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:42 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 pm This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble.
That's one of the biggest reasons why I elected to use a trend following strategy as opposed to buy-and-hold. The market may indeed recover at some point, but it's very plausible that it might not recover in time to keep me from experiencing significant financial problems (e.g. sequence of returns risk). Granted, there are no guarantees that my strategy would be an improvement in such a situation, but I believe that it would.
What's the context here? I thought the notion of Boglehead-style investing is essentially B&H but you hedge the market-not-recovering risk by mixing in bonds in your AA. At the end of the day though, both stocks & bonds have to appreciate long-term.
I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool Boglehead. My strategy is outlined here, but I no longer discuss the specifics on the open forum. PM me if you wish to discuss it.
I see, I'll read up on it, thanks. I also trend-follow elsewhere but in a different taxable than Boglehead.
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bluquark
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by bluquark »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 pm This attitude of the market always recovers can get someone into trouble. For my own sake I hope it doesn't, but it might.

always get be much longer than just a few months. Longer may even be longer than just a few years. I really hope we never learn that lesson, AGAIN.
Yeah, that's what I thought in March. "The last thing I should do is buy more stocks now, that would be fighting the last war (overlearning the lessons of 2008 as well as the 2018 dip) but this is a totally different sort of crash. This one seems particularly likely to go sideways from the bottom for years before it finally recovers. No reason to act rashly"

The generals fighting the last war scored yet another triumphant victory. I was proven wrong, but I still don't think I was necessarily proven unwise. I can only shrug with an ironic smile and observe that the market showed me once again that it's not a morality play.
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB
sassyseuss
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by sassyseuss »

I'd just like to chime in here and say that I wish someone had sat me down with a chart when I was a teenager or early 20-something and explained dollar cost averaging, and that a person actually makes more money that way than by timing the market perfectly.

My defensive bearish tendencies kept me sitting on the sidelines for most of my life up 'til now (I am 37 now, so I still have time). Sure, I was making almost no money, but I could have been putting away something back then. There was always a new disaster, there were always signs of financial weakness and economic indicators of doom. Some things fail, but other things will succeed, and extraordinary measures will be taken to save our economy, just as has happened already this year.

I'm sick and tired of waiting for the other shoe to drop. I don't care if the market goes down 80%, that just means everything is on sale. And if I think a new crash is imminent (and I do believe so), I will add ballast to my portfolio like SWAN but I don't plan on removing anything.

Market timing is a miserable venture. Just start dollar cost averaging in.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by MoonOrb »

The only thing I've done differently this year is let my bank balance accumulate (due to reduced spending on travel and other activities curtailed by covid) and rather than plow that excess back into investments as I normally would have done, I've kept it as a larger-than-normal emergency fund as a hedge against the potential for extended unemployment. I suppose if I exchanged that liquidity for investments I'd be up several thousand more dollars this year.

Otherwise I have just kept investing as normal, as stomach-churning as this year has been in lots of other ways.
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by l1am »

sassyseuss wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:55 am Market timing is a miserable venture. Just start dollar cost averaging in.
Lump sum beats DCA about 2/3rd's of the time.
Marseille07
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Marseille07 »

l1am wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:02 pm
sassyseuss wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:55 am Market timing is a miserable venture. Just start dollar cost averaging in.
Lump sum beats DCA about 2/3rd's of the time.
DCA is all about safety of capital deployment, not so much about beating lump sum.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by Taylor Larimore »

CnC wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investments.

I am 34 with ±10 years expenses saved.

I was 75/25 I am now 50/50. I have set a timer to get back in the market by the end of March. I figure that if this does cause a sell off I will be able to buy back in at a nice discount. If it doesn't, I'll buy back in and lose 1-2%.

I know this is a risk and I am rolling the dice, but it just seems like the negatives of waiting this particular event out outweigh the positives at the moment.


I'm not selling everything and investing in masks or hazmat suits or anything but I am having a hard time understanding how the markets are ignoring steps that haven't been taken in 50+ years.
CnC:

Today the Dow and S&P 500 each reached all-time records. I hope your market-timing venture was successful.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Absolutely no one knows what the stock market is going to do tomorrow, let alone next year. Nor which sector, style or region will lead and which will lag. Given this absolute uncertainty, the most logical strategy is to invest as broadly as possible."




"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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SB1234
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Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Post by SB1234 »

sassyseuss wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:55 am I'd just like to chime in here and say that I wish someone had sat me down with a chart when I was a teenager or early 20-something and explained dollar cost averaging, and that a person actually makes more money that way than by timing the market perfectly.

My defensive bearish tendencies kept me sitting on the sidelines for most of my life up 'til now (I am 37 now, so I still have time). Sure, I was making almost no money, but I could have been putting away something back then. There was always a new disaster, there were always signs of financial weakness and economic indicators of doom. Some things fail, but other things will succeed, and extraordinary measures will be taken to save our economy, just as has happened already this year.

I'm sick and tired of waiting for the other shoe to drop. I don't care if the market goes down 80%, that just means everything is on sale. And if I think a new crash is imminent (and I do believe so), I will add ballast to my portfolio like SWAN but I don't plan on removing anything.

Market timing is a miserable venture. Just start dollar cost averaging in.
I hear you. My experiences have been very similar. In fact I first started investing in retirement account because of 'default enrollment' into the plan by my employer. That was almost 10 years ago, and I'm glad I didn't opt out.
DCA is best when you're accumulating. And getting started earlier is useful.
Just keep ploughing as much as you can with a comfortable AA. That's what I'm planning to do anyways :sharebeer
anecdotes are not data
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