Another...can I retire post (47YO)

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jjunk
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Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

I'm considering retiring because of how much my job is impacting my health (mental/physical). If I leave my current role, I dont plan on re-entering the workforce, at least not for a while. If I re-entered the workforce I'd take a very, very large pay cut so I realize this is likely "it" from a career perspective if I retire. My wife does not work and doesnt plan on working. There is a chance we would get a "fun" part time job but I dont plan on any additional income.

I'm 47, DW is 45. I do have chronic health issues and will also need a major elective surgery at some point, my wife is in excellent health and hardly ever goes to the doctor. Hard to say how much of my ongoing health issues are related to stress/work but there's only one way to find out :happy

Current accounts:
Taxable: 2.3M - 1.9M is in S&P 500 or Total Market ETFs. ~400K in Total Bond mutual fund
RIRA: 216K - in Total Bond mutual fund
401K: 500K - in Total Bond mutual fund
HSA: 59K- in Wellesley
Cash: 21K

So we're sitting ~3M when I pull out the HSA. We plan on keeping 60/40 AA for our entire retirement.

Overall expenses currently are 69K which I expect to max out around 96K when including ACA insurance, future taxes/cars/electronics/vacations/etc. In our budget we can trim 1-2k/mo of expenses if we really needed to, including a move to a cheaper CoL area in the PNW. That said, my planning uses the 96K number. We have no children and no one we wish to leave a bequest to. We have charities defined which will get whatever is left.

My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
Last edited by jjunk on Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
radiowave
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by radiowave »

OP you may want to read this concurrent thread: viewtopic.php?p=5589440#p5589440
Bogleheads Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

radiowave wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:26 pm OP you may want to read this concurrent thread: viewtopic.php?p=5589440#p5589440
Thanks. I'd seen that thread but their situation and account layout were significantly different enough that I thought this might warrant its own thread.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by TravelGeek »

Looks fine to me, especially if you also are eligible for social security.

One thing I would think about is health insurance. If ACA was struck down by SCOTUS, how would this impact your plans considering your healthcare needs? (we will presumably know by next summer, maybe earlier)
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:47 pm One thing I would think about is health insurance. If ACA was struck down by SCOTUS, how would this impact your plans considering your healthcare needs? (we will presumably know by next summer, maybe earlier)
Yes, I have enough credits for SS. I dont use it in planning to keep things simple and it will be a cherry on top if/when it becomes available to us.

Your call-out for the ACA is exactly the thing that is causing me hesitancy. I've effectively been working for insurance at this point. One thing I've been considering is to try and make it until the summer 2021, get my elective surgery done under my work insurance and then seeing what the outcome of that case ends up being and making a decison. I just dont know if I can make it to the summer without having a stroke :annoyed
Last edited by jjunk on Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Watty »

A few questions to help fill out some gaps in your information.


1) How much Social Security do you expect to get if you stop working now? When you get the estimate be sure to specify that you would stop working, it defaults to assume that you will keep working. You use this web site to get a suggested claiming strategy.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/

2) Likewise what do you expect your income needs to be once you get to be on Medicare?

3) How much home equity do you have and how much to you expect to spend on a house if you move. With any big move it is a good idea to rent for a year to make sure that you will want to stay there. This is especially in the PNW to make sure that you will be OK with the winters. I used to live there and it can be fantastic, but it does not work for some people. There have been a number of threads about the PNW that you can look up.

4) Does your wife work and will she work if you retire and move? Even a few thousand dollars a month from a part time job could really help your numbers and might also get you healthcare.
jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:23 pm My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
A very "back of the envelope" calculation for $96K

1) If your $3 million pay just a 1% dividend that would generate $30K a year.

2) That would mean that you need to draw down your savings by $69K a year. $3 million/$69K = 43 years that your portfolio would last until you depleted your portfolio. You would be 90 and 88 then.

That is grossly oversimplified and you could make a complex spreadsheet but you should be able to do fine, especially with Social Security.

Assuming that you eventually buy a house for cash in the PNW then I suspect that your estimate of needing 96K for expenses is high for two people with no kids unless you want to have a pretty high end lifestyle. You can play the numbers but you will not have; Mortgage payment, retirementment savings, child raising costs, FICA taxes, high income taxes, etc so if you spend $96 I would guess that would be equivalent to a working couple with kids who make around $250K a year. People do spend that much but if you don't consider your lifestyle to be somewhat high end then you may not need that much.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Escapevelocity »

Your wife is going to keep working? For how long? Will her employer provide benefits to both of you? What is her income?
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

Watty wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:13 pm A few questions to help fill out some gaps in your information.


1) How much Social Security do you expect to get if you stop working now? When you get the estimate be sure to specify that you would stop working, it defaults to assume that you will keep working. You use this web site to get a suggested claiming strategy.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/

Looks like my SS would be ~$2900 at 70 based on my current earnings record. My wife doesnt work, so her benefit would be half of that (minus any future changes to the program)

2) Likewise what do you expect your income needs to be once you get to be on Medicare?

Effectively my current expenses minus the delta in the ACA and Medicare. I've been purposefully using the ACA since I assume that will be the higher figure.

3) How much home equity do you have and how much to you expect to spend on a house if you move. With any big move it is a good idea to rent for a year to make sure that you will want to stay there. This is especially in the PNW to make sure that you will be OK with the winters. I used to live there and it can be fantastic, but it does not work for some people. There have been a number of threads about the PNW that you can look up.

We've lived in the PNW for just shy of a decade now and love it here. We plan on renting for the remainder of our lives. Currently my rent is 3k/mo, we expect that to increase and we'll likely get priced out of where we live. I use 3200/mo as a planning number.

4) Does your wife work and will she work if you retire and move? Even a few thousand dollars a month from a part time job could really help your numbers and might also get you healthcare.

My wife doesnt work and doesnt plan to work. I could see myself getting a "fun" job that makes a little money on the side or offers a benefit I'd enjoy (like a movie theater or something)
jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:23 pm My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
A very "back of the envelope" calculation for $96K

1) If your $3 million pay just a 1% dividend that would generate $30K a year.

2) That would mean that you need to draw down your savings by $69K a year. $3 million/$69K = 43 years that your portfolio would last until you depleted your portfolio. You would be 90 and 88 then.

That is grossly oversimplified and you could make a complex spreadsheet but you should be able to do fine, especially with Social Security.

Assuming that you eventually buy a house for cash in the PNW then I suspect that your estimate of needing 96K for expenses is high for two people with no kids unless you want to have a pretty high end lifestyle. You can play the numbers but you will not have; Mortgage payment, retirementment savings, child raising costs, FICA taxes, high income taxes, etc so if you spend $96 I would guess that would be equivalent to a working couple with kids who make around $250K a year. People do spend that much but if you don't consider your lifestyle to be somewhat high end then you may not need that much.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

Escapevelocity wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:15 pm Your wife is going to keep working? For how long? Will her employer provide benefits to both of you? What is her income?
Sorry, I should have specified, she doesnt work. I'll amend that.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by abc132 »

I would make my decision based on the short term value of staying employed until surgery vs the benefit of dropping all that stress and focusing completely on your health.

Our quick glance makes it seem to me like (health >> money) in your situation, but only you know all the details.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by TravelGeek »

jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:13 pm I just dont know if I can make it to the summer without having a stroke :annoyed
If that is a realistic medical possibility, that would be a significant argument for pursuing your retirement plan. Worst case, you or your wife can look for a job with health insurance coverage if it becomes a necessity.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:42 pm
jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:13 pm I just dont know if I can make it to the summer without having a stroke :annoyed
If that is a realistic medical possibility, that would be a significant argument for pursuing your retirement plan. Worst case, you or your wife can look for a job with health insurance coverage if it becomes a necessity.
Sadly, I'm only being partly hyperbolic. Appreciate the advice.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Watty »

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:42 pm
jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:13 pm I just dont know if I can make it to the summer without having a stroke :annoyed
If that is a realistic medical possibility, that would be a significant argument for pursuing your retirement plan. Worst case, you or your wife can look for a job with health insurance coverage if it becomes a necessity.
Depending on the details you should also consider if you could go out on disability, if you have disability insurance.

You might also want to have that elective surgery before you leave your current job too just in case there are complications that might qualify you for disability insurance.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Valuethinker »

jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:23 pm I'm considering retiring because of how much my job is impacting my health (mental/physical). If I leave my current role, I dont plan on re-entering the workforce, at least not for a while. If I re-entered the workforce I'd take a very, very large pay cut so I realize this is likely "it" from a career perspective if I retire. My wife does not work and doesnt plan on working. There is a chance we would get a "fun" part time job but I dont plan on any additional income.

I'm 47, DW is 45. I do have chronic health issues and will also need a major elective surgery at some point, my wife is in excellent health and hardly ever goes to the doctor. Hard to say how much of my ongoing health issues are related to stress/work but there's only one way to find out :happy

Current accounts:
Taxable: 2.3M - 1.9M is in S&P 500 or Total Market ETFs. ~400K in Total Bond mutual fund
RIRA: 216K - in Total Bond mutual fund
401K: 500K - in Total Bond mutual fund
HSA: 59K- in Wellesley
Cash: 21K

So we're sitting ~3M when I pull out the HSA. We plan on keeping 60/40 AA for our entire retirement.

Overall expenses currently are 69K which I expect to max out around 96K when including ACA insurance, future taxes/cars/electronics/vacations/etc. In our budget we can trim 1-2k/mo of expenses if we really needed to, including a move to a cheaper CoL area in the PNW. That said, my planning uses the 96K number. We have no children and no one we wish to leave a bequest to. We have charities defined which will get whatever is left.

My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
You can most assuredly do this. In fact, you probably have to - if you want to have any quality of life in your time remaining. Any radical shifts that you can make in your lifestyle, diet etc that would aid this should also be considered.

The suggestion that you have the major operation while still employed, and/ or that you might qualify for some kind of disability benefits, is a good one.

You want to confirm that you will qualify for SS.

I would say the Safe Withdrawal Rate, now, assuming inflation increases in your withdrawals, is around 2.5%. However SS benefits will kick in for you and your spouse (perhaps) and that will make a difference.

Instead of 60/40 I would propose 50-25% straight bonds - 25% TIPS. However 60-20-20 would also work.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by chassis »

jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:23 pm I'm considering retiring because of how much my job is impacting my health (mental/physical). If I leave my current role, I dont plan on re-entering the workforce, at least not for a while. If I re-entered the workforce I'd take a very, very large pay cut so I realize this is likely "it" from a career perspective if I retire. My wife does not work and doesnt plan on working. There is a chance we would get a "fun" part time job but I dont plan on any additional income.

I'm 47, DW is 45. I do have chronic health issues and will also need a major elective surgery at some point, my wife is in excellent health and hardly ever goes to the doctor. Hard to say how much of my ongoing health issues are related to stress/work but there's only one way to find out :happy

Current accounts:
Taxable: 2.3M - 1.9M is in S&P 500 or Total Market ETFs. ~400K in Total Bond mutual fund
RIRA: 216K - in Total Bond mutual fund
401K: 500K - in Total Bond mutual fund
HSA: 59K- in Wellesley
Cash: 21K

So we're sitting ~3M when I pull out the HSA. We plan on keeping 60/40 AA for our entire retirement.

Overall expenses currently are 69K which I expect to max out around 96K when including ACA insurance, future taxes/cars/electronics/vacations/etc. In our budget we can trim 1-2k/mo of expenses if we really needed to, including a move to a cheaper CoL area in the PNW. That said, my planning uses the 96K number. We have no children and no one we wish to leave a bequest to. We have charities defined which will get whatever is left.

My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
@jjunk Looks ok to me, on paper. Can you realistically live on $96k per year? If yes, go for it. If you are in a FIRE status, any income you decide to earn is gravy and can be added to capital.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by marcopolo »

jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:23 pm I'm considering retiring because of how much my job is impacting my health (mental/physical). If I leave my current role, I dont plan on re-entering the workforce, at least not for a while. If I re-entered the workforce I'd take a very, very large pay cut so I realize this is likely "it" from a career perspective if I retire. My wife does not work and doesnt plan on working. There is a chance we would get a "fun" part time job but I dont plan on any additional income.

I'm 47, DW is 45. I do have chronic health issues and will also need a major elective surgery at some point, my wife is in excellent health and hardly ever goes to the doctor. Hard to say how much of my ongoing health issues are related to stress/work but there's only one way to find out :happy

Current accounts:
Taxable: 2.3M - 1.9M is in S&P 500 or Total Market ETFs. ~400K in Total Bond mutual fund
RIRA: 216K - in Total Bond mutual fund
401K: 500K - in Total Bond mutual fund
HSA: 59K- in Wellesley
Cash: 21K

So we're sitting ~3M when I pull out the HSA. We plan on keeping 60/40 AA for our entire retirement.

Overall expenses currently are 69K which I expect to max out around 96K when including ACA insurance, future taxes/cars/electronics/vacations/etc. In our budget we can trim 1-2k/mo of expenses if we really needed to, including a move to a cheaper CoL area in the PNW. That said, my planning uses the 96K number. We have no children and no one we wish to leave a bequest to. We have charities defined which will get whatever is left.

My calculations show we look like we'd be ok (currently at a 3.2% WR), but I'd like to get other opinions.
I think if your expense projection is reasonably accurate, you should be on good shape.

One thing I would urge you to think about is what will you and your spouse be doing with your time in retirement.
Once you answer that question, work out expected spending taking that into account.

We keep a pretty active retirement (temporarily less so right now :annoyed), and thus have significantly more discretionary spending than we did prior to retirement.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

chassis wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:56 pm @jjunk Looks ok to me, on paper. Can you realistically live on $96k per year? If yes, go for it. If you are in a FIRE status, any income you decide to earn is gravy and can be added to capital.
Yes, we can easily live on 96k/yr so long as housing isnt out of control. As renters, we can control that in many respects. We spend between 5-6k/mo now and feel like we spend "too much" but 50% of my expenses are rent. Plus I wont need a lot of things I pay for now because I wont be working, so all in all, I think the 96K is a high end but I'm trying to be cautious.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by wander »

Your case is easy. You have won the game. Enjoy your retirement.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by PowderDay9 »

I think you're good to retire. The potential for rent increasing faster than expected would worry me a bit though. Have you thought about buying a house to reduce that risk?
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by LiveSimple »

Yes you can retire.I am sure that your $3 M retirement will grow as well to take care your increase in rent and other expenses.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by lakpr »

jjunk wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:06 pm
chassis wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:56 pm @jjunk Looks ok to me, on paper. Can you realistically live on $96k per year? If yes, go for it. If you are in a FIRE status, any income you decide to earn is gravy and can be added to capital.
Yes, we can easily live on 96k/yr so long as housing isnt out of control. As renters, we can control that in many respects. We spend between 5-6k/mo now and feel like we spend "too much" but 50% of my expenses are rent. Plus I wont need a lot of things I pay for now because I wont be working, so all in all, I think the 96K is a high end but I'm trying to be cautious.
If you do retire, I suggest that you buy a home in a low- or no-income tax state. You will future-proof your housing costs. You can buy a decent home for $400k (your bonds allocation in taxable account) in almost any part of the country.

Renting is a "fixed" expense, so effectively a negative bond. It is counteracting the bonds allocation in your portfolio. Simply selling those bonds and buying a home leaves you in exactly the same position risk wise. Very similar to how we (at least I) advocate paying down or paying off mortgage instead of investing in CDs and other fixed income instruments.

Surely the bond funds did not have too much in capital gains that selling them would have you incur a large tax bill.

If renting is indeed 50% of your expenses, if you sell bonds from your taxable account, you will have $2.6 million in assets but only $48k in expenses. Let me change that to $60k in expenses to account for property taxes and the 1% expected maintenance. $60k annual withdrawal rate on a $2.6 million asset base is less than 2.5% withdrawal rate. Even if your portfolio returned 0% real returns, that would last you 40 years, until you are age 87 and 85. Social Security should see you through till the end of your lives comfortably.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by AB609 »

Is there some reason you have to wait for the surgery? Can you just get it down while employed and covered by medical and disability? If it is some sort of degenerative condition, the outcome usually doesn't improve with time.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by HMSVictory »

I concur with the above poster and agree you should purchase a home outright with some of your fixed income investments.

I think your 60/40 allocation is on the more conservative side due to your (and your wife's) young age. I would lean towards 70/30 or even 80/20. With your current 60/40 allocation you have 12.5 years of living expenses in bonds (at your 96k expense ratio). My guess is if the market was doing very badly you could tighten those expenses up and make it last even longer so I would be very comfortable going to 70/30 or maybe 80/20. You have a long time horizon for your retirement (especially your wife who's health is good).

Last point - you have worked hard to get to $3M you have earned the right to do what you want to do. Quit the job.
Stay the course!
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

PowderDay9 wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:51 pm I think you're good to retire. The potential for rent increasing faster than expected would worry me a bit though. Have you thought about buying a house to reduce that risk?
We'd considered buying but pricing in the areas we want to live doesnt fit very well. For example, although my rent is 3k/mo, buying within several blocks of my current building would range from 2-3M plus high HOAs (1200-1600/mo). I'd have to be quite a bit further out of the greater Seattle area to find something where the math worked favorably.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

AB609 wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:20 am Is there some reason you have to wait for the surgery? Can you just get it down while employed and covered by medical and disability? If it is some sort of degenerative condition, the outcome usually doesn't improve with time.
My surgeon has recommended waiting due to the recent increases in COVID in the area hospitals. Thats the main reason. You're correct, it is a degenerative issue (hip) and it definitely isnt getting better. I think everyone is erring on the side of caution. If I had to, I could probably get the operation out of the way and hope for the best.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

HMSVictory wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:52 am I concur with the above poster and agree you should purchase a home outright with some of your fixed income investments.

I think your 60/40 allocation is on the more conservative side due to your (and your wife's) young age. I would lean towards 70/30 or even 80/20. With your current 60/40 allocation you have 12.5 years of living expenses in bonds (at your 96k expense ratio). My guess is if the market was doing very badly you could tighten those expenses up and make it last even longer so I would be very comfortable going to 70/30 or maybe 80/20. You have a long time horizon for your retirement (especially your wife who's health is good).

Last point - you have worked hard to get to $3M you have earned the right to do what you want to do. Quit the job.
Thanks for the feedback. Buying, in our current area, isnt feasible due to cost. We may consider moving further out of the area and if we did, we'd likely move to an area where we could potentially purchase. I would love to lock down those costs since it is the largest drain on expenses but we love where we live right now. I dont want to get rid of the one bright spot unless I have to.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by marcopolo »

jjunk wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:00 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:51 pm I think you're good to retire. The potential for rent increasing faster than expected would worry me a bit though. Have you thought about buying a house to reduce that risk?
We'd considered buying but pricing in the areas we want to live doesnt fit very well. For example, although my rent is 3k/mo, buying within several blocks of my current building would range from 2-3M plus high HOAs (1200-1600/mo). I'd have to be quite a bit further out of the greater Seattle area to find something where the math worked favorably.
Surely you recogniize that if your assessmemt of market
value of housing is correct, then your rent situation is not sustainable.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:07 pm Surely you recogniize that if your assessmemt of market
value of housing is correct, then your rent situation is not sustainable.
Correct. We realize we're likely going to need to move at some point as rents go up. We currently avg 10-12% increase/yr. We have been successful in renegotiating that down each lease as we've been here for several years but I think we have 3-4yrs max before things get out of hand. Luckily rental construction is outpacing residential in our area, which might help stabilize pricing. The changes in the tech industry are also leading small numbers of folks to leave this area now that they can work from home. If neither of those stabilizes prices, we will need to move.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Olemiss540 »

If I had your money and expenses I would retire tonight via an email to my supervisor ESPECIALLY given your health issues/concerns.

The biggest BUT to the above would be why not get your health procedures addressed RIGHT NOW to handle them while employed? Take advantage of using sick leave, vacation, FMLA or whatever and use your current health care plan to take care of it ASAP.
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

Olemiss540 wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:39 pm If I had your money and expenses I would retire tonight via an email to my supervisor ESPECIALLY given your health issues/concerns.

The biggest BUT to the above would be why not get your health procedures addressed RIGHT NOW to handle them while employed? Take advantage of using sick leave, vacation, FMLA or whatever and use your current health care plan to take care of it ASAP.
Thanks for the input. If anything this thread has made me feel better about our situation as it pertains to retirement.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that while I'd love to get my surgery out of the way, my surgeon has recommended waiting until the current COVID spikes are somewhat abated. That is driving my reluctance to get that out of the way. Looks like my best case is for getting it done is Spring 2021. So I'm now doing the mental calculus to see if its worth the trade-off of waiting until the procedure is out of the way or leaving now and using COBRA to take care of the surgery later on.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Valuethinker »

jjunk wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:02 pm
Olemiss540 wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:39 pm If I had your money and expenses I would retire tonight via an email to my supervisor ESPECIALLY given your health issues/concerns.

The biggest BUT to the above would be why not get your health procedures addressed RIGHT NOW to handle them while employed? Take advantage of using sick leave, vacation, FMLA or whatever and use your current health care plan to take care of it ASAP.
Thanks for the input. If anything this thread has made me feel better about our situation as it pertains to retirement.

I mentioned earlier in the thread that while I'd love to get my surgery out of the way, my surgeon has recommended waiting until the current COVID spikes are somewhat abated. That is driving my reluctance to get that out of the way. Looks like my best case is for getting it done is Spring 2021. So I'm now doing the mental calculus to see if its worth the trade-off of waiting until the procedure is out of the way or leaving now and using COBRA to take care of the surgery later on.
If you physically and mentally can stay another 9-12 months at work, it makes the problem less serious.

1 year of life left to fund, and surgery done and dusted (we hope).

That's the tradeoff.

You absolutely need to retire, to get quality of life out of what life you have left. Lots of people have died in that "just before retirement" phase, but that's usually 60-65, not your age.

But if you feel you can hold on for another 9 months, well, that just makes life a lot easier financially.

It's kind of like earning another year's interest on all your money, except the interest earned is your after tax salary + benefits.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by qwertyjazz »

jjunk wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:02 pm
AB609 wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:20 am Is there some reason you have to wait for the surgery? Can you just get it down while employed and covered by medical and disability? If it is some sort of degenerative condition, the outcome usually doesn't improve with time.
My surgeon has recommended waiting due to the recent increases in COVID in the area hospitals. Thats the main reason. You're correct, it is a degenerative issue (hip) and it definitely isnt getting better. I think everyone is erring on the side of caution. If I had to, I could probably get the operation out of the way and hope for the best.
So the 2 variables are the job and the surgery. Rushing the surgery is not safe so that leaves the job
Therefore, deconstruct the job into its parts. What parts do you hate? What parts create the excess stress? How can you change or ignore them? What can you negotiate away for a year?
Worst case is you get fired ...
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by arsenalfan »

Sabbatical year?

Surgery and recovery is pretty compelling reason
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

arsenalfan wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:47 am Sabbatical year?

Surgery and recovery is pretty compelling reason
I'd love to do that but I'm one level below the sabbatical level in my company. I think I'm going to try to hold out another year, possibly see if I can find another job within my company and if not, get the surgery done as soon as its safe and call it a career.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by bb »

It is interesting how this thread is generally favorable with regards to being able to retire yet other threads with similar assets might be met with more skepticism. Maybe the difference is there is a health care issue present. Absent from the replies were grilling over future health care costs, flexibility of spending, risky plan due to young age, push back on SWR, etc.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by AssetSurveyor »

Consider reducing your hours at work to possibly 60 hours per week. This will help reduce your stress from work and allow you to stay on their health insurance for both you and your wife.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Keenobserver »

I ran your numbers and did a number of complex analysis on some very fancy spreadsheets. After running some patented algorithms, I have reached the conclusion: Health is worth more than all the Money is the world combined. Trust you me, I speak from experience.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Outer Marker »

jjunk wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:52 am
arsenalfan wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:47 am Sabbatical year?

Surgery and recovery is pretty compelling reason
I'd love to do that but I'm one level below the sabbatical level in my company. I think I'm going to try to hold out another year, possibly see if I can find another job within my company and if not, get the surgery done as soon as its safe and call it a career.
That sounds like an excellent plan. Looks like we actually have a vaccine on the horizon, and that you can probably get the surgery done this year. If you have the option in year-end "open enrolement" to sign up for optional short-term disability to supplement long-term, that may be a good investment. The sooner you can get the hip surgery done, the better. My dad put off having a knee replacement done for too long, and his recovery was sub-optimal compared to what it would have been when he was advised to do it years earlier. Best of luck and enjoy your retirement. Your finances look very solid.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by Valuethinker »

jjunk wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:52 am
arsenalfan wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:47 am Sabbatical year?

Surgery and recovery is pretty compelling reason
I'd love to do that but I'm one level below the sabbatical level in my company. I think I'm going to try to hold out another year, possibly see if I can find another job within my company and if not, get the surgery done as soon as its safe and call it a career.
That's the best plan. I worry you are running the tape longer than it has to run.

But in terms of being in as good a position financially as you can be, for you and your spouse, with the hard constraint that if you don't retire you aren't likely to have many good years in retirement, then it's the best plan.

All things being equal, plan to be gone in 12 months - but don't tell *anyone* that other than your spouse. Because once it is known, you will lose the option. And get that surgery done as soon as you feasibly can.

Good luck ... it feels like you will need a bit of that.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

Keenobserver wrote: Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:42 am I ran your numbers and did a number of complex analysis on some very fancy spreadsheets. After running some patented algorithms, I have reached the conclusion: Health is worth more than all the Money is the world combined. Trust you me, I speak from experience.
LOL. Thanks for the advice (and for running all those patented backtests :beer)
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

bb wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:56 pm It is interesting how this thread is generally favorable with regards to being able to retire yet other threads with similar assets might be met with more skepticism. Maybe the difference is there is a health care issue present. Absent from the replies were grilling over future health care costs, flexibility of spending, risky plan due to young age, push back on SWR, etc.
This is one of the reasons I started my own thread. I too have noticed that other threads similar tend to be more conservative in regards to the advice. Thus far I've chalked it up to a few things. First, my numbers include healthcare costs at my top level (8k/mo). Second, I dont have children so my expenses are pretty scoped to two people. And finally, because I'm a renter, I have a lot of flexibility in my expenses. Couple that with not wanting or needing to need a legacy and the planning gets much more scoped.

All that said, if health is the key trigger for the advice to retire, that would scare me a little bit simply because I dont want to end up broke in 30yrs.
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Re: Another...can I retire post (47YO)

Post by jjunk »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Nov 14, 2020 10:06 am That's the best plan. I worry you are running the tape longer than it has to run.

But in terms of being in as good a position financially as you can be, for you and your spouse, with the hard constraint that if you don't retire you aren't likely to have many good years in retirement, then it's the best plan.

All things being equal, plan to be gone in 12 months - but don't tell *anyone* that other than your spouse. Because once it is known, you will lose the option. And get that surgery done as soon as you feasibly can.

Good luck ... it feels like you will need a bit of that.
Many thanks. I need all the luck I can get. Hope you and yours stay healthy and have a safe holiday season.
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