Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

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corp_sharecropper
Posts: 429
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:36 pm

Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by corp_sharecropper »

We all pretty agree that one should get their house (aka finances/retirement) in order, utilizing proven and time tested investment and savings instruments. We don't need a lecture about gambling with your/family's financial well-being and future needs.

That said, there are plenty of bogleheads with money that goes beyond satisfying basic needs/essentials. I think many of us enjoy, and think it worthwhile, to use a portion of this extra money on highly speculative moonshots with high risk (low probability) and high reward.

I'm curious to hear what sort of moonshots people here have attempted, currently pursuing, or are scheming for the future. Please share and provide your commentary/rationale behind your moonshot plans.

I'll go first:

1) Currently using leverage for portion of portfolio. I actually don't really consider this a "moonshot" necessarily as the goal is to maintain this reasonable amount of leverage long term and I suppose I fully expect it to work out or be of only the most minor harm. I'm talking about margin and futures. I really wish treasury futures came in smaller bites right now, so as far as futures are concerned I find it easier to implement on the equity side of the portfolio but would prefer the reverse.

2) Occasional purchases of short dated OTM options. Pretty self explanatory here. I fully expect to not win on a majority of these but I find it fun, cheap, and if I hit a big one it will be big. Without looking through my record I would actually say overall it hasn't been total investment loss as I've broken even a lot or had mostly partial losses or small gains.

3) Crypto speculation. I don't know when, but I feel pretty confident that some of these will spike and I'll be able to unload on a "greater fool" than me. It's just the nature of crypto. Haven't lost/gained much (technically slightly up vs holding cash at the moment). I hold no illusions about a real utility to crypto, this really is a pure "greater fool" play, and crypto is rife with fools imo (maybe me, I accept that possibility). Feeling confident at some point in the next few years there will be an irrational frenzy I can cash in on.


Ok, that's what I got for now other than a friend's booming slum lord business but I'm still distilling my thoughts on that one and I'll need to get a "friend exception" to buy in as they've stopped accepting new investors for the time being.

Your turn.
novemberrain
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Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 12:26 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by novemberrain »

Nice!
Last edited by novemberrain on Sun Dec 27, 2020 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ccf
Posts: 335
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Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by ccf »

These are all relatively small sums as I don't let the total exceed 5% of my portfolio:
  • "invested" in Filecoin 3 years ago. I've recovered my initial investment and will be quite happy with my ROI if it doesn't tank before my vesting is complete.
  • Bitcoin
  • A build-your-own-fund that I created with Folio that is 30 individual securities that I selected based the world-defining companies and technologies in a specific sci fi novel. Sort of a joke but also serious.
  • Patreon, via EquityZen
  • CD Projekt Red, purchased on the delay news, selling once new game is released'
Sounds crazy all written out but I'm not risking a lot - it's a pastime and not a financial strategy. It comes out of my budget and not my savings and if I beat the market I let myself keep the excess. Sometimes I save it and sometimes I gamble it.
SouthernFIRE
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:24 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by SouthernFIRE »

Purchased shares in a couple of private, VC-backed companies. One went public this year and looks like a solid win (assuming the stock hangs in through lockup period). The others are 1-3 years away.
Outer Marker
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Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:01 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by Outer Marker »

A gold mining ETF would provide plenty of Vegas style action if you're into that.
nigel_ht
Posts: 1831
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by nigel_ht »

In March I bought RCL, CCL, DAL, XOM, DIS, BA. XOM has been the loser in that pack at +16%.

RCL and CCL were down over 70% from their peak. They seemed like good plays.
arsenalfan
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Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by arsenalfan »

I gave myself 1% of portfolio to play with in 2007, aiming at overly-punished companies I thought would make a comeback.

I did in aftertax accounts initially. Ford with the auto bailout. Volkswagen with Dieselgate. I made some modest gains and sold. It was ok, not as exciting as I thought - held for a year to avoid Short term Cap Gains since I'm in highest bracket.

Then I got cocky and thought I'd juice returns by using the same amount of play money, but in a Roth so I wouldn't have the tax drag. Invested in Boeing after the first 737 max crashes. Also a biotech firm. Those lost a ton of money, all the F and VLKAY gains, and now below the initial 1% I had invested in 2007. That wasn't fun either. And thanks to my hubris I cannot tax loss harvest since they're Roth losses.

I "know" airlines will make it back, and am tempted by JETS etf (0.6% ER and concentrated in some loser major airlines), and more tempted by jetblue and southwest. I "know" they'll make it back in 2021.

But truth is, it's not that fun for me, having won and lost. I have more fun at my regular poker games, losing or winning 0.005% of my portfolio. It's just 1% of my portfolio so not enough to move the needle in any meaningful way. And it scratched an itch.

But I'm playing more poker and golf skins games, for my speculation moonshots.

As an aside, I will say LOTS of investments come across my eyeballs. Syndicated real estate, angel investor decks. But I'm not super well connected, and know that whatever I'm seeing...is probably the bottom 1/3 of the barrel. YMMV.
backpacker61
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Joined: Wed May 20, 2020 6:36 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by backpacker61 »

“Now shall I walk or shall I ride? | 'Ride,' Pleasure said; | 'Walk,' Joy replied.” | | ― W.H. Davies
Flashes1
Posts: 1027
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 7:43 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by Flashes1 »

Made a round 1 private investment in a brewery that opened recently. Round 2 shares were valued at 2.5x my valuation. I like the main founder - he's a real go-getter.....and you invest in people.
Keenobserver
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Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by Keenobserver »

Arkk..etf ..some clean energy ETFs
am
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Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by am »

Some of the microcap and penny biotechs can go up huge amounts real fast on barely good news. Look at this one

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas ... ng-returns. Up 773% year to date!

Some of the cryptos would do the trick. Bitcoin 78% 1 yr and 15000% since creation. Etherium is up 149% last year and 16157% since creation.

Some techs like Tesla since 2011 has had CAGR 54.67%


Returns like that can surely have impact in small doses.
TSPballer
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Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:45 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by TSPballer »

Put a "not insignificant" amount into Palantir's (PLTR) DPO. Already up 50ish% with an ER coming up tomorrow.

This was a lottery ticket I was comfortable with because I use their product at my job. Potential for them to do incredible things.........or to lack the ability to effectively scale and go nowhere......but that's what makes it fun, right?
KaskadeForever
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by KaskadeForever »

SouthernFIRE wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:50 pm Purchased shares in a couple of private, VC-backed companies. One went public this year and looks like a solid win (assuming the stock hangs in through lockup period). The others are 1-3 years away.
How did you find the companies to invest in? I am intrigued by AngelList, where you can invest in a fund that invests in startups. I thought it would be a good way to take part in VC investing for maybe 5% of my portfolio. Does anyone have any experience with it or thoughts about it?
HawkeyePierce
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Location: Colorado

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by HawkeyePierce »

A year ago I put 10% of my portfolio into the Excellent Adventure.

I also have a small investment in a DIY clone of WCLD, an ETF that invests in B2B SaaS/cloud companies. Up 68% YTD.
Cubs Fan
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:22 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by Cubs Fan »

19 years ago I inherited $26,000.00 of FPL (now Nextera Energy. I never invested more money into this stock. Over the years I withdrew approximately $100,000.00 to purchase 2 cars. I have not been reinvesting the dividends for the past 6 years. Currently NEE in my account is worth $255,000.00. I have been reluctant to sell it due to capital gains. I intend to keep NEE because it is the leader in renewable clean energy. Other than this moonshot I am a two fund Boglehead with an asset allocation of 55/45. Total invested assets of $1,500.000.00. House is paid for with a value of $325,000.00 and no debt. No pension. combined SS is $52,000.00 per year. Dh 76 and Dw 71. Retired with no other income.
SouthernFIRE
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:24 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by SouthernFIRE »

KaskadeForever wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:40 am
SouthernFIRE wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:50 pm Purchased shares in a couple of private, VC-backed companies. One went public this year and looks like a solid win (assuming the stock hangs in through lockup period). The others are 1-3 years away.
How did you find the companies to invest in? I am intrigued by AngelList, where you can invest in a fund that invests in startups. I thought it would be a good way to take part in VC investing for maybe 5% of my portfolio. Does anyone have any experience with it or thoughts about it?
There are online brokers. Sharespost, Equity Zen. Others.
jayboss
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Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2012 7:53 pm

Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by jayboss »

I recently bought $5000 worth of bitcoin that I plan to hold at least ten years.

I also have $10,000 for the occasional options trade.

I have a robinhood account for my kids with individual stocks for them to learn about investing. Prob $6000 worth. The kids pick the stocks. They have DIS, MCD, NKE, MSFT, etc.

Other than that I'm all low-cost index funds in all other accounts. The speculative/non-index fund stuff above is ~1% of my entire portfolio.
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epicahab
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Re: Extra or "play" money high risk/reward speculative moonshots... If you partake, what are you doing?

Post by epicahab »

TSPballer wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:08 am Put a "not insignificant" amount into Palantir's (PLTR) DPO. Already up 50ish% with an ER coming up tomorrow.

This was a lottery ticket I was comfortable with because I use their product at my job. Potential for them to do incredible things.........or to lack the ability to effectively scale and go nowhere......but that's what makes it fun, right?
I did the same. Check out JMIA, SNOW, and SPCE.
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