U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:03 pm I don't believe in the EMH. The adaptive market hypothesis makes more sense to me.
Thanks, how does that apply to small vs large caps right now IYO?

People holding onto smalls haven't adapted appropriately to market movements?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

rchmx1 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:41 pm Friday kinda reminded me of end of the end of August run up. I wonder if we'll see some profit taking next week.
I don't think so....I think we blow past the Aug highs as long as earnings hold up, August on the other hand was a month after the heart of the last earnings season (akin to November vs. October). Then there's all sorts of other events which could push it higher if things go investor's way.

Should be a very interesting finish to the year, possible 10%+ year if all the stars align just so. It comes down to how many "unknowns" we can put into the "known" column by the end of the year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:30 pm ...
What is interesting is my kids and their friends already consider Facebook for “old people”. They do not use it and instead use Instagram and What’s App among others.
You're aware of who owns Instagram right? :) One is definitely targeted to the masses, the other is very much targeted to a younger crowd, this is very likely by design not fluke.

I liken this to car companies targeting difference demo's with different brands under their umbrella, e.g. Cadillac vs. Chevy, vs. GMC.

And as for the fickle nature of tech companies wares, I'd remind everyone that Microsoft is almost 40 years old, Amazon 25+, Google 22+, FB 15+, Apple around 35 (!!). These are hardly fly-by-night companies, they've been tested with multiple shifts in the tech landscape, at times they've made missteps, (e.g. MS missing the mobile era, Apple flubbing the PC era of the 90s, Google missing the Social Networking era), but they've all recovered well and re-invented themselves.

Could they eventually get taken out? For sure, but I wouldn't put it higher than many other companies. If anything they all have very sizable moats, MS lasted a decade in the wilderness due to how large their moat was (coasting on Windows/Office/Xbox until they finally hit upon cloud + surface).

Energy & legacy auto manufacturers are far more vulnerable right now, say nothing of airlines and retail. Their PEs are high, because compared to other companies... they earned the higher PEs over many (many) years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

mrspock wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:45 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:30 pm ...
What is interesting is my kids and their friends already consider Facebook for “old people”. They do not use it and instead use Instagram and What’s App among others.
You're aware of who owns Instagram right? :) One is definitely targeted to the masses, the other is very much targeted to a younger crowd, this is very likely by design not fluke.

I liken this to car companies targeting difference demo's with different brands under their umbrella, e.g. Cadillac vs. Chevy, vs. GMC.

And as for the fickle nature of tech companies wares, I'd remind everyone that Microsoft is almost 40 years old, Amazon 25+, Google 22+, FB 15+, Apple around 35 (!!). These are hardly fly-by-night companies, they've been tested with multiple shifts in the tech landscape, at times they've made missteps, (e.g. MS missing the mobile era, Apple flubbing the PC era of the 90s, Google missing the Social Networking era), but they've all recovered well and re-invented themselves.

Could they eventually get taken out? For sure, but I wouldn't put it higher than many other companies. If anything they all have very sizable moats, MS lasted a decade in the wilderness due to how large their moat was (coasting on Windows/Office/Xbox until they finally hit upon cloud + surface).

Energy & legacy auto manufacturers are far more vulnerable right now, say nothing of airlines and retail. Their PEs are high, because compared to other companies... they earned the higher PEs over many (many) years.
Yes, Facebook of course owns Instagram! I like your post and totally agree. I think Tesla is really pushing the traditional auto manufacturers. Our technology companies are going to continue to innovate and move forward, waiting for no one.

I really don’t think this is going backwards. I don’t think technology is just another phase of investing or Wall Street. Tech today is changing every part of everyone’s lives.

I say that as I sit here typing on a new Apple iPad Pro after trading in my MacBook Pro. this iPad could run circles around that laptop. As I am learning this iPad, the processes and how far the technology has come in a few years is crazy!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

000 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:03 pm I don't believe in the EMH. The adaptive market hypothesis makes more sense to me.
Thanks, how does that apply to small vs large caps right now IYO?

People holding onto smalls haven't adapted appropriately to market movements?
Maybe I'm wrong, the EMH is right, small-caps are set to outperform. Their valuations are certainly more attractive right now.

Or maybe I'm right and large-caps will keep outperforming for a long while.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:39 am
000 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:03 pm I don't believe in the EMH. The adaptive market hypothesis makes more sense to me.
Thanks, how does that apply to small vs large caps right now IYO?

People holding onto smalls haven't adapted appropriately to market movements?
Maybe I'm wrong, the EMH is right, small-caps are set to outperform. Their valuations are certainly more attractive right now.

Or maybe I'm right and large-caps will keep outperforming for a long while.
Translation: Nobody knows enough (so buy it all)

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

mrspock wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:45 am
Energy & legacy auto manufacturers are far more vulnerable right now, say nothing of airlines and retail. Their PEs are high, because compared to other companies... they earned the higher PEs over many (many) years.
High P/E in bad times, Low P/E in good times is a classic sign of a Cyclical Stock, or economically sensitive stocks. Classic cyclicals are Energy, Autos, Forest Products, Home Builders. P/E ratios are high during bad times because the market realizes that the economy will turn upwards at some point. P/E ratios tend to be low during good times because the market knows that a recession will come.

The behavior that you noted above is pretty typical of such stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:28 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:45 pm
Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime.
Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

mrspock wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:45 am You're aware of who owns Instagram right?
I had joined Instagram briefly. But when I found this out I quit immediately, haven’t seen it since. This was years ago. I did the same with WhatsApp. I joined, then quit when I learned the ownership. I know I should’ve researched that first.
Last edited by Nicolas on Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I remember when slide rules were cool.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Palm was fabulous. The first device I ever had that knew where I was supposed to be. So it would beep and tell me I was supposed to be in a meeting. I am very addicted to that capability now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:10 am
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I remember when slide rules were cool.
I won the slide rule contest at my high school in the early 1970s.

That WAS cool.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:15 am
Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:10 am
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I remember when slide rules were cool.
I won the slide rule contest at my high school in the early 1970s.

That WAS cool.
When I went to Japan in the early eighties merchants were still using the abacus to calculate prices and change, they could do it super fast. I don’t know if they still do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

lostdog wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:01 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:28 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:36 pm

Tech valuations are high but not crazy high. I wouldn't call this a bubble.
I wouldn't either. The ginormous difference between now and right before the dot com bust is that the tech companies are actually making money and by the bucket full at that. Apple currently has $90 billion just in cash. If Apple was a country and it's current cash was its GDP, it would be in the top third of all countries.
A big problem I have with High Tech is the "cool" factor. Blackberries used to be the must have smart phone but now no one would be caught dead with one. Yahoo was a cool search engine until Google came around. AOL was once the most admired Internet company, now only old fogies still have AOL. Sort of like teen idols and screaming young girls who control much of the music industry, teen idol one day and forgotten the next. The "cool" factor is amazingly fickle. If the 35 and under crowd decided Apple was no longer cool, it would be down the tubes within a few years even with that gigantic cash hoard. I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
When I traded individual stocks, I had America On Line!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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mrspock wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:27 am
rchmx1 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:41 pm Friday kinda reminded me of end of the end of August run up. I wonder if we'll see some profit taking next week.
I don't think so....I think we blow past the Aug highs as long as earnings hold up, August on the other hand was a month after the heart of the last earnings season (akin to November vs. October). Then there's all sorts of other events which could push it higher if things go investor's way.

Should be a very interesting finish to the year, possible 10%+ year if all the stars align just so. It comes down to how many "unknowns" we can put into the "known" column by the end of the year.
I wasn't meaning to indicate pessimism about the strength of the bullish trend we're in, just sharing the observation that it seems like every significant run up we've had since the bottom fell out in March has been followed by a short but significant bout of profit taking. But you make a good point about the boost we could see from earnings announcements. I deleveraged a bit on Friday on the chance that profit taking happens again this coming week, though I'm mostly locked and loaded if things continue to soar.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:28 pm When I traded individual stocks, I had America On Line!
I remember people used to say AOL was the internet on training wheels. In the 90s people were paying hundreds a month for AOL subscriptions, which was essentially just a dumbed-down internet experience. Then there was that whole disastrous merger with Time-Warner.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Independent George »

Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:39 pm I remember people used to say AOL was the internet on training wheels. In the 90s people were paying hundreds a month for AOL subscriptions, which was essentially just a dumbed-down internet experience. Then there was that whole disastrous merger with Time-Warner.
Do you remember getting those disks in the mail? People would joke about them being free coasters. I also remember AOL addresses being banned from a lot of message boards because the people who held those accounts tended to be terrible.

It's funny how, despite AOL's collapse, the internet really has shifted more towards the walled garden model it favored. Facebook is its successor in a lot of ways.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Independent George wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 1:38 pm
Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:39 pm I remember people used to say AOL was the internet on training wheels. In the 90s people were paying hundreds a month for AOL subscriptions, which was essentially just a dumbed-down internet experience. Then there was that whole disastrous merger with Time-Warner.
Do you remember getting those disks in the mail? People would joke about them being free coasters. I also remember AOL addresses being banned from a lot of message boards because the people who held those accounts tended to be terrible.

It's funny how, despite AOL's collapse, the internet really has shifted more towards the walled garden model it favored. Facebook is its successor in a lot of ways.
Yes I used to get those disks all the time, they went straight to the trash. And absolutely FB is its successor, an astute observation!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:39 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:28 pm When I traded individual stocks, I had America On Line!
I remember people used to say AOL was the internet on training wheels. In the 90s people were paying hundreds a month for AOL subscriptions, which was essentially just a dumbed-down internet experience. Then there was that whole disastrous merger with Time-Warner.
Totally and no doubt. I recall the old “dial up” days and the frustration of how slow things were at that time. Then layer in the home telephone line was busy and no one could call!

Technology has come a HUGE way in a short amount of time.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

abuss368 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:57 pm I recall the old “dial up” days and the frustration of how slow things were at that time. Then layer in the home telephone line was busy and no one could call!
We had that problem too. We put in a second phone line and then no more problems.
Last edited by Nicolas on Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market (increasing).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by djeayzonne »

Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:21 am
Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:15 am
Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:10 am
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I remember when slide rules were cool.
I won the slide rule contest at my high school in the early 1970s.

That WAS cool.
When I went to Japan in the early eighties merchants were still using the abacus to calculate prices and change, they could do it super fast. I don’t know if they still do.
Yes, you can still see people using an abacus in Japan. It's most noticeable in general public when buying train tickets.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Is the stock market open tomorrow (Columbus Day)?

I don’t know if I can wait until Tuesday for more soaring!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:25 pm Is the stock market open tomorrow (Columbus Day)?

I don’t know if I can wait until Tuesday for more soaring!
The Vanguard app does not warn me about markets being closed upon login, so I guess not. *snicker*

Here’s a list of all the official market holidays:

http://www.rightline.net/calendar/market-holidays.html

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:25 pm Is the stock market open tomorrow (Columbus Day)?

I don’t know if I can wait until Tuesday for more soaring!
Markets are open tomorrow but it's a non-settlement day. So an extra day to wait for funds to settle from trades late last week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm ... I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I still have one. Buried in a pile of old technology, but it is still in there.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante »

rchmx1 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:25 pm Is the stock market open tomorrow (Columbus Day)?

I don’t know if I can wait until Tuesday for more soaring!
Markets are open tomorrow but it's a non-settlement day. So an extra day to wait for funds to settle from trades late last week.
That figures. Columbus was more of an explorer than a settler. Wakka wakka.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Futures suggest a yummy day for tech stocks tomorrow :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by langlands »

000 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:37 pm Futures suggest a yummy day for tech stocks tomorrow :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I thought you created a thread saying you were concerned tech was overvalued? Do you tilt tech?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

langlands wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:43 pm
000 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:37 pm Futures suggest a yummy day for tech stocks tomorrow :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I thought you created a thread saying you were concerned tech was overvalued? Do you tilt tech?
Just here for the ride. I do think tech is overvalued. I have a small QQQ position in one account, but overall my portfolio is very mildly tilted away from tech.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:25 pm Is the stock market open tomorrow (Columbus Day)?

I don’t know if I can wait until Tuesday for more soaring!
I'm glad that the equities market is going to be open today.

No need to wait for Tuesday for more soaring. It looks like it will open solidly green. :moneybag
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Post by CurlyDave »

Futures are showing a huge amount of soaring.

The Curly Family Portfolio is going to open at 95% of its recent all-time high.
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Post by occambogle »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:25 am Futures are showing a huge amount of soaring.
I sure love these days where I look at my watchlist and the only red I see is VIX. Keep 'em coming....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:25 am Futures are showing a huge amount of soaring.

The Curly Family Portfolio is going to open at 95% of its recent all-time high.
Stocks are soaring at the open. Both S&P and Nasdaq are less than 3% off all time highs.

Hopefully the Curly family will post new records soon.
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Post by Livelife2fullest »

Lot of optimism to start the week. Big tech having another huge day, so what else is new. Could be interesting to see market reaction to the earnings reports, including the big banks, later this week.
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Post by NearlyRetired »

Stinky wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:15 am
Nicolas wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:10 am
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:12 pm I am so old that I remember the Palm Pilot.
I remember when slide rules were cool.
I won the slide rule contest at my high school in the early 1970s.

That WAS cool.
Ah, I was a little later - I did have my Dad's slide rules, but we just used log tables!! I remember the Sinclair calculator coming on to the market. Cost about 1K and could only add, subtract, multiply and divide - all on LEDs
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Post by GoldenGoose »

Wait until we have a vaccine announced.
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Post by HomerJ »

GoldenGoose wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:59 am Wait until we have a vaccine announced.
It's already been announced about 50 times I think.
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HomerJ wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 am
GoldenGoose wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:59 am Wait until we have a vaccine announced.
It's already been announced about 50 times I think.
I'm sorry, I should be more clear. When a vaccine is available for the general public and not still in some trial phase.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 am
GoldenGoose wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:59 am Wait until we have a vaccine announced.
It's already been announced about 50 times I think.
Even when one is actually introduced by a trusted producer, the market will likely be skeptical. A vaccine won't change the economic situation until/if it is administered to a very large swath of the populace, probably 80-90%. Aside from production and administration issues, many have become very reticent about vaccines, and this seems even more likely to continue with a brand new vaccine that's been hurriedly brought to market.

So no, I'm not convinced that the mere announcement of a truly viable vaccine is going to quickly elicit a strong market reaction.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

The market is just powering up and up and up so far today.

Amazingly, new all time highs are in sight.
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Post by atdharris »

Why are we soaring so much today?
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Post by rocketsrule »

atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:37 am Why are we soaring so much today?
Who knows.. but I'm predicting a down day tomorrow after the last few being way up.
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

rocketsrule wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:39 am
atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:37 am Why are we soaring so much today?
Who knows.. but I'm predicting a down day tomorrow after the last few being way up.
Momentum being what it is, it's more likely that up days will follow up days.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

rocketsrule wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:39 am
atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:37 am Why are we soaring so much today?
Who knows.. but I'm predicting a down day tomorrow after the last few being way up.
Not if stimulus is passed
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:15 am SPX 3,500 is like putting a man on the moon; it happened a while ago, it's scarcely believable that it did happen, and it won't happen again for a very long time.
Less than a month later (he posted that on Sept 22), Forester's predictions are wrong again.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Just wait until the FOMO guys rush in
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:43 am
Forester wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:15 am SPX 3,500 is like putting a man on the moon; it happened a while ago, it's scarcely believable that it did happen, and it won't happen again for a very long time.
Less than a month later (he posted that on Sept 22), Forester's predictions are wrong again.
"It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
- Danish proverb
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Keenobserver wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:47 am Just wait until the FOMO guys rush in
Close to the end of the trading day they'll plow in?
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