2020 Hedge Fund contest

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

^^^ True. But there are a lot of Kodiak bears. :happy

I was mostly surprised that Kodak still exists. It does a great job as a cautionary tale in business school classes. Maybe they want to do a sequel.
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Rick Ferri
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri »

whodidntante wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:37 pm If you have any dead air you can needle Rick Ferri for losing over 100% in the hedge fund contest, Jim. :happy
It was an honest mistake. I thought this was for the 2021 Hedge Fund contest.

What I MEANT to do in 2020 was short GE and go long TSLA. :oops:
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
FinancialDave
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by FinancialDave »

JBTX wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:15 pm
FinancialDave wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:23 pm KLXE, 1-5 reverse stock split as of 27th.
So shouldn't the number of shares decrease to 1/5 th?

Asking for a friend. :wink:
Yes, price goes up because # shares goes down --- 1 to 5 means you will have 1 share for every 5 you had before. Normal splits (2:1) means you get 2 shares for every 1.
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

FinancialDave wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:23 pm KLXE, 1-5 reverse stock split as of 27th.
Thanks. The prices have been updated and adjusted to reflect the reverse split effective earlier this week.
overthought
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by overthought »

Looks like ASNA has been delisted, now trading OTC as ASNAQ at 0.35 as of Friday close. Can somebody fix the spreadsheet?
(not that I mind being in first place... but it seems a bit undeserved)
finite_difference
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by finite_difference »

Rick Ferri wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:18 am
whodidntante wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:37 pm If you have any dead air you can needle Rick Ferri for losing over 100% in the hedge fund contest, Jim. :happy
It was an honest mistake. I thought this was for the 2021 Hedge Fund contest.

What I MEANT to do in 2020 was short GE and go long TSLA. :oops:
There are 145 days remaining on our short position. Finite Difference Investments predicts a 49% chance of a positive outcome on the TSLA short over this time period, with a 93% dependence on whether or not the market experiences what we internally refer to as Event:Great Recession 2.0, and a 1% dependence on negative Events related to TSLA’s CEO and management team.

Of course, our purpose is not to beat an index. The purpose is primarily to provide a hedge against catastrophes, and to secondarily provide uncorrelated returns against the other investments in our client’s portfolios.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
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Tanelorn
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Post by Tanelorn »

overthought wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:32 pm Looks like ASNA has been delisted, now trading OTC as ASNAQ at 0.35 as of Friday close. Can somebody fix the spreadsheet?
(not that I mind being in first place... but it seems a bit undeserved)
Thank you, the spreadsheet as been updated. ASNA did indeed file for bankruptcy, hence the new ticker symbol. Congratulations to both overthought and hornet96 for their prescient short selections of this troubled retailer, owner of Anne Taylor Loft, Lane Bryant, and several other retail brands. The stock is currently down 94% for the year.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
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hornet96
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Re:

Post by hornet96 »

Tanelorn wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:23 pm
overthought wrote: Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:32 pm Looks like ASNA has been delisted, now trading OTC as ASNAQ at 0.35 as of Friday close. Can somebody fix the spreadsheet?
(not that I mind being in first place... but it seems a bit undeserved)
Thank you, the spreadsheet as been updated. ASNA did indeed file for bankruptcy, hence the new ticker symbol. Congratulations to both overthought and hornet96 for their prescient short selections of this troubled retailer, owner of Anne Taylor Loft, Lane Bryant, and several other retail brands. The stock is currently down 94% for the year.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
High Hopes Fund Delivers Value to Shareholders with Prescient Bankruptcy Picks
PR Newswire * August 11, 2020

ASNA became the latest bankruptcy casualty in the pandemic economy, which had been predicted by our Fund's exceptional management team even before there was a hint of a pandemic on the horizon.

"ASNA was on the shortlist for declaring bankruptcy in 2020, even before the pandemic, due to its huge debt burden, changes in fashion preferences, and ties to physical retail shopping centers, which were already in decline due to the continuing shifts in consumer preferences towards online shopping," said lead fund manager, hornet96. "While COVID was the straw that broke the camel's back for ASNA, the High Hopes fund was well positioned to take advantage of their misfortune and provide significant value to our shareholders."

Year-to-date, the High Hopes Fund is up nearly 40%, on the back of this bankruptcy as well as another bankruptcy earlier in the year (FTR). Although lagging the contest leaders by a wide margin, the fund is significantly outperforming its benchmark by nearly 37%, and is providing investors with a substantial risk-adjusted outperformance compared to the contest leaders, whose portfolios are generally much less diversified. Our management team consistently provides clients with significant value while exerting very little effort, which is comprised of about 15 minutes of research performed annually on Seeking Alpha before the contest deadline. For more information, please refer to Seeking Alpha articles from around the first week of January.
JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX »

I wish I had held on to TSLA longer.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

JBTX wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:37 pm I wish I had held on to TSLA longer.
No kidding - they’re up almost 300% for the contest, and we’ve still got the Battery Day and likely S&P500 inclusion still coming up in the near term.
Alchemist
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Alchemist »

The Philosophers Stone Fund - Update To Shareholders

The Financial Alchemists managing the Philosophers Stone Fund are happy to report that we are currently ranked 23 of 72 hedge funds in our category. We are also beating the S&P 500 by 14% for the year thus far. Our selections of a long position in T-mobile and a short position on Bed Bath and Beyond have powered the portfolio comfortably into the green. But our bets on Lockheed Martin and Boeing are waiting to pay off later in the year. Expect a large bounce to both positions, and thus your investment, once a viable vaccine is approved by the FDA.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Today 8/31/20, two very popular stocks Apple and Tesla underwent forward splits - 4x for AAPL, 5x for TSLA. This means that shareholders would now own 4x or 5x as many shares as they did on Friday, and of course the market price of the stock is lower accordingly. I think i adjusted everyone's buy price per share (to be 1/4 or 1/5 respectively of the old price at the start of the contest), but if I missed anyone, please speak up. The only exception was for the handful of cases where some people closed out their TSLA or AAPL positions prior to today, in which case I left both the old initial price and their actual closing price in the spreadsheet (indicated in italics to note something unusual had happened).

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

Currently both stocks are up less than 1%, in line with the market being slightly up this morning, so no obvious "free shares/money" for people who bought just before the splits. For the duration of the contest, Apple is up nearly 60% and Tesla is up around 325%!
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Some more glitches with those AAPL and TSLA splits - all prices are now adjusted for the prices (including those who had already traded out). I think everything looks correct now.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

^^^ Yep. Ferri's at the bottom. Seems correct. :twisted:
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

TagmoreClock wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:46 am ClockWork Darts
Long: V, MEET, WDC
Short: LYFT, PINS (Exclude PINS if it is not allowed.Surprisingly, I could not find it in Russell 3000)
MEET merger was completed on 9/4/20 for $6.30 in cash. The position has been closed at the merger price.
columbia
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by columbia »

Shorting GE and Boeing was a good move, but won't be enough to win. :(
aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian »

40 of the 71 funds are under water for the year. TSLA and AAPL shorts causing much damage, to the benefit of the current leader!
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Tanelorn wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:10 am Thanks. I've updated the spreadsheet to reflect the adjusted prices for the CHK reverse split.
I realized I failed to update CHK to the new CHKAQ ticker when they were delisted associated with their bankruptcy back at the end of June. Our two bold Chesapeake longs are now reflecting the correct prices, and slightly higher ones than before.
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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

All I know is, if Tanelorn ever shorts the company I work for, I'm going to start looking for a job. :D
JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX »

Everybody please BUY NTUS. It is a sure thing.
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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante »

I thought we might feel better about ourselves by comparing to some actual hedge funds. Below, you'll find the 2020 return so far, and the fund name. These are the hedge funds that Interactive Brokers allows accredited investors to purchase, not the ones that you need to be rich to get access to.

Code: Select all

-23.80%	Quinn Opportunities Master LP
6.25%	The Motley Fool Pro Master Fund, LP
-9.35%	Preserver, L.P.
15.44%	Sachem Cove Special Opportunities Fund, LP
22.59%	Rod Capital Partners, LP
-14.60%	Gator Financial Partners, LLC
-19.60%	Ovis Master Fund L.P.
-35.97%	Ategra Community Financial Institution Fund, LP
16.50%	Jafar Liquid Strategies LP
22.80%	Providence Heights I, LP
120.34%	Dhruva Fund LP
28.00%	HELLER HOUSE OPPORTUNITY FUND, L.P.
-2.42%	Rutledge Partners, LP
-16.13%	JPL Opportunity Fund LP
26.43%	TCM Global Index Fund LP
34.10%	Urania Capital Fund Ltd.
-5.71%	ASG Enhanced Income Fund LP
45.36%	Left Brain Capital Appreciation Fund, L.P.
57.22%	Mach Innovation Fund, LP
25.74%	Armatus Market Neutral Fund, LLC
5.20%	Bunkport Partners LP
-1.17%	Oakstone Hedged Equity LP
3.82%	REVO ALPHA FUND LP
32.38%	QTS Partners, LP.
0.00%	Fat Pitch Capital, L.P.
29.28%	Standard Investment Fund LP
-0.65%	Chicago Equity Advisors Fund 1, LP
35.83%	Lighthaven Fund LP
12.64%	Bodhi Tree Tactical Allocation Fund, LP
9.36%	The Tahoe Fund, LP
5.30%	Redwood Alpha Fund
5.47%	Phoenix Capital Fund, LP
-18.32%	Odin Raven Fund, L.P.
-20.85%	Stanphyl Capital Partners LP
-28.77%	Redwood Partners LP
-2.70%	Lincoln Square Opportunity Fund II, L.P.
44.30%	Baskerville Capital Partners LP
-11.24%	Tocaya Event Fund LP
-17.86%	RQM Partners LP
JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX »

whodidntante wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:22 pm I thought we might feel better about ourselves by comparing to some actual hedge funds. Below, you'll find the 2020 return so far, and the fund name. These are the hedge funds that Interactive Brokers allows accredited investors to purchase, not the ones that you need to be rich to get access to.

Code: Select all

-23.80%	Quinn Opportunities Master LP
6.25%	The Motley Fool Pro Master Fund, LP
-9.35%	Preserver, L.P.
15.44%	Sachem Cove Special Opportunities Fund, LP
22.59%	Rod Capital Partners, LP
-14.60%	Gator Financial Partners, LLC
-19.60%	Ovis Master Fund L.P.
-35.97%	Ategra Community Financial Institution Fund, LP
16.50%	Jafar Liquid Strategies LP
22.80%	Providence Heights I, LP
120.34%	Dhruva Fund LP
28.00%	HELLER HOUSE OPPORTUNITY FUND, L.P.
-2.42%	Rutledge Partners, LP
-16.13%	JPL Opportunity Fund LP
26.43%	TCM Global Index Fund LP
34.10%	Urania Capital Fund Ltd.
-5.71%	ASG Enhanced Income Fund LP
45.36%	Left Brain Capital Appreciation Fund, L.P.
57.22%	Mach Innovation Fund, LP
25.74%	Armatus Market Neutral Fund, LLC
5.20%	Bunkport Partners LP
-1.17%	Oakstone Hedged Equity LP
3.82%	REVO ALPHA FUND LP
32.38%	QTS Partners, LP.
0.00%	Fat Pitch Capital, L.P.
29.28%	Standard Investment Fund LP
-0.65%	Chicago Equity Advisors Fund 1, LP
35.83%	Lighthaven Fund LP
12.64%	Bodhi Tree Tactical Allocation Fund, LP
9.36%	The Tahoe Fund, LP
5.30%	Redwood Alpha Fund
5.47%	Phoenix Capital Fund, LP
-18.32%	Odin Raven Fund, L.P.
-20.85%	Stanphyl Capital Partners LP
-28.77%	Redwood Partners LP
-2.70%	Lincoln Square Opportunity Fund II, L.P.
44.30%	Baskerville Capital Partners LP
-11.24%	Tocaya Event Fund LP
-17.86%	RQM Partners LP
It is amusing seeing all those sophisticated names, all in negative territory, and look at our list and the top ones are named "what the..... do I know" and "monkey dart" that are blowing those hotty totty funds away.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn »

JBTX wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:04 pm Everybody please BUY NTUS. It is a sure thing.
You need some more followers, clearly :). For those not following closely, happyisland’s Monkey Dart fund is vying the top spot with JBTX’s fund, and would suffer if NTUS stock rose as it is long RUN and short NTUS.

Thanks to a broad rally in solar energy stocks in recent weeks, and an larger rally in RUN specifically, happyisland has now taken first place - congratulations! Their fund is now up 173%, mostly from their outstanding long pick SunRun, up 300%, which sounds like a lot but is still trailing slightly behind Tesla’s huge gains. Their short pick has done well also, gaining 46%, and putting the fund with a slightly less than 10% lead over JBTX’s fund, who cashed out his sole TSLA long about half way up its current rally for this year. Timing is tough!

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX »

:annoyed :x
FinancialDave
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by FinancialDave »

JBTX wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:11 am:annoyed :x
I hear ya. This is not the year when having a short position is going to help you at all!

:sharebeer
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX »

FinancialDave wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:02 am
JBTX wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:11 am:annoyed :x
I hear ya. This is not the year when having a short position is going to help you at all!

:sharebeer
I wasn't short, I just cashed out too early. I was at 160% gain, and the nearest competitor was about 100% or less. I didn't think there was possibly any way they could catch up. My gut told me to ride it to 200%, but conservativism told me to sell and lock in what I figured was an insurmountable lead.
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hornet96
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by hornet96 »

FinancialDave wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:02 am
JBTX wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:11 am:annoyed :x
I hear ya. This is not the year when having a short position is going to help you at all!

:sharebeer
Unless you happened to short a couple of companies that filed bankruptcy. 8-)
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timboktoo
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by timboktoo »

It now looks like my short should have been long and my long should have been short.

- Tim
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