Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

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TravelforFun
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by TravelforFun »

LonScott wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:13 am I am wondering if anyone here is following Moraif's advice. It looks like he sold out again December 14th per this on his website: TIME TO SELL? IMPORTANT MARKET ALERT VIDEO FROM KEN MORAIF POSTED ON DECEMBER 14, 2018

On Jan 13th he wrote: Despite the Rally That We Have Seen in the S&P 500 Index over the Last Two Weeks, We Are Not Convinced.END

That is a shame. VFINX is up 6.6% year to date.
Once again, Ken sells low but when will he buy high? And how will he spin so his marks believe him?
I'm tired of hearing Moraif's weekly boast about making the right call in 2008.

TravelforFun
Texconsin
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Texconsin »

By the time word got out on his radio show, folks with 401(k) accounts would have sold the market 12/17/2018 at 4 pm EST on a day the Dow closed down 505 to 23,592 vs. 24,737 at close on 01/25/2019, the Nasdaq down 156 to 6,753 vs. 7,165, the S&P 500 down 54 to 2,545 vs. 2,665 and the Russell 2000 down 37 to 1,373 vs. 1,483. If "money matters" to you, I suggest you listen to his show for the sound effects, not the "sound" advice.
LonScott
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

He is back in, but only 25%. Email today 3/24/19: "We Are Buying. What to Expect.
We are excited to participate in the upward trend that we see has established itself and look forward to the potential that it offers.

We bought with a fourth of your equity allocation on Friday. It takes a few days for the trades to settle, but you will get the buying price for all trades as of Friday. Thankfully, Friday was significantly down making it a great day to buy, in our view!

Our schedule is to buy with another fourth a month from now; the third fourth a month after that; and the last fourth the month after that."

I am not a client, I suppose I get these because I get his email alerts.
Gufomel
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Gufomel »

LonScott wrote: Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:00 pm He is back in, but only 25%. Email today 3/24/19: "We Are Buying. What to Expect.
We are excited to participate in the upward trend that we see has established itself and look forward to the potential that it offers.

We bought with a fourth of your equity allocation on Friday. It takes a few days for the trades to settle, but you will get the buying price for all trades as of Friday. Thankfully, Friday was significantly down making it a great day to buy, in our view!

Our schedule is to buy with another fourth a month from now; the third fourth a month after that; and the last fourth the month after that."

I am not a client, I suppose I get these because I get his email alerts.
So he got his clients out at S&P sub-1600 on Dec 14 and starts getting his clients back in at ~1800 on March 22, and it’s “a great day to buy” because the market was down 2% that day?

Theft.

Ironically the reason for the 2% decline was a yield curve inversion which could be signaling a coming recession (not that I believe that’s a certainty). So his clients missed out on around 7-8% gains yet have just as much chance (or more) of being in the market for a recession as they did 3 months ago.
LonScott
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

"So he got his clients out at S&P sub-1600 on Dec 14 and starts getting his clients back in at ~1800 on March 22, and it’s “a great day to buy” because the market was down 2% that day?"

He has perfected a timing model to sell low and buy high. A financial Maginot Line.
DFAMAN
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

In recent years, Moraif's public statements have been more opaque regarding exactly when he is buying and selling equities for his clients, and in what amounts, but I see that his website (now re-branded as Retirement Planners of America) indicates that they sold their clients' equity positions this past Tuesday. See link https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... ad-we-did/

We'll see how this one works out. I hope we can keep track of roughly the market value when he sold his clients' equities (already in bear market territory as compared to recent highs) and where the markets are when he ultimately buys back in for his clients. He has had a repeated track record of selling and then missing a major portion of increases before buying back into the equity markets. Much of this has been traced in this thread. I guess we'll see what happens this time. One thing is certain - his firm is managing a bunch of money and making fees from folks who believe the story that they will end up better off by letting him time the markets. That certainly would not be true, thus far based on history, for anybody who put their money with him in the past 10 years or so.
General
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

DFAMAN, please keep us posted on how this one turns out. I would like to know how much the DOW dropped before he got out and how much it came back up before he got back in. Ken must have sold Money Matters or something because the rebranding is bad. Ken is a good salesman but a scam artist at the same time. His only claim to fame is from 2008, 12 years ago and he still hangs his hat on that. He has missed every time since. Let us know how this one turns out.
Last edited by General on Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

When Moraif sold on March 10 the S&P opened at 2813.48 and closed at 2882.23. The stocks would have been sold in various lots throughout the day and his clients would be credited with the average of the lots sold. What is interesting now is that while his clients are sitting in cash they are still being charged 1.25% while not even making close to that. They will lose value as long as Moraif has them in cash.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

With the S&P closing at 2846.06 today (4/14/2020) we are roughly at where Moraif sold out his clients on March 10.
aussiebobaustin
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by aussiebobaustin »

Here are my questions ....

1. Does Ken make the sales or does he just send out the alerts . I assume he does the selling ?
2. If he sells 1/2 way down and buys about 1/2 way up and ends up neutral, does that have a giant tax hit or is it a "wash" sale ?
3. If a portfolio is correctly diversified ... and is re-balanced ... doesn't that adjust the risk like taking only as much risk as is needed ?
4. Seems like hysteresis is a major issue ... since the trigger points to sell and buy are always difficult to nail.
General
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

Thanks Hornblower - Let us know what he buys back in at. Selling low and buying high just doesn't do much for me but his clients seem to be in for the ride.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif has a rigid strategy. When the S&P closes 5% below the 200 day moving average he sells the next day. When the S&P closes 3% above the 200 day moving average he buys the next day. If the buy comes within 6 months of the sell he may do a phased buy back like he did in 2019 where he bought 25% in four consecutive months.
General
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

Hornblower - what do you think of his strategy? Have you seen his results over the years?
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif’s whole program is designed to appeal to people who are not sophisticated investors, who have more dollars than cents. :) I went to one of the seminars a couple of years ago, and the presentation, while extremely well done, really didn’t say anything except you need to let them manage your money. (by the way, the cookies are not that good) When I asked very specific questions about the funds’ performance they refused to give me an answer. The equity fund is TCOEX (prospectus: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 2_9497.htm) Moraif denies that he is a market timer; he says that he is a “trend watcher”. Yet note these paragraphs from the prospectus itself:

Frequent Purchases and Redemptions of Fund Shares
"Market timing" refers to a pattern of frequent purchases and sales of a Fund's shares, often with the intent of earning arbitrage profits. Market timing of the Funds could harm other shareholders in various ways, including by diluting the value of the shareholders' holdings, increasing Fund transaction costs, disrupting portfolio management strategy, causing a Fund to incur unwanted taxable gains and forcing a Fund to hold excess levels of cash.
The Board has not adopted policies and procedures to discourage frequent trading or short-term trading into and out of the Funds. In reaching this conclusion, the Board took into account that: (i) each Fund is a component of the Adviser Managed Strategy, which is a trading strategy employed by the Financial Adviser that contemplates the Financial Adviser tactically shifting its clients' assets among the Funds and a money market fund; and (ii) the shares of the Funds will be sold only to clients of the Financial Adviser who participate in the Adviser Managed Strategy.
Notwithstanding the above, each Fund, in its sole discretion, reserves the right to reject any purchase request (including exchange requests) for any reason without notice.

The prospectus itself defines what Moraif does as market timing. His whole strategy is one of enriching himself at the expense of his clients who get only crumbs from the table (if they are lucky).
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif in his video today announced that if they hit their buy point in the next few months that they will only start buying in at 10% a month. He is still expecting a huge bear.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Today the S&P smashed through Moraif’s buy trigger and closed at 3122.87. That means that he will begin buying stocks tomorrow, albeit only 10% for his clients’ equity allotments. (Last word was he had sold out even the bonds and his clients were sitting in cash with all their money – with Moraif raking off 1.25% for his fee.) Another thrilling episode in the never ending saga of market timing: sell low/buy high.
DFAMAN
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

Thanks H. Hornblower. This makes pretty clear that, despite what has been said in the past, Moraif's firm is not adhering to some mechanical market timing strategy based on moving averages (such as what Paul Merriman does with half his portfolio). Instead, their "buy" signal has been hit, and they are nevertheless keeping the vast majority of client funds in cash. It sounds like more of a "seat of the pants"/ "we are smarter than the market" kind of investment strategy - waiting for "clarity" - whatever that means. Someday he may be right again, but he has been wrong so many times since 2009, and the vast majority of the client funds have come into his firm since 2009, meaning that for those people this so far has been a long and bad series of mistakes involving selling low and buying back in (eventually) at significantly higher prices. He always preaches that the key is not to lose principal, but the sad fact for most retirees and near-retirees is that they need to get the advantage of Mr. Market's growth over time in order to fund the kind of retirement living that they desire. If not losing principal is really the overarching goal, just sit in T-Bills and avoid the 1.25% fee to Moraif's firm.
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Flyer24 »

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MoDinero
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by MoDinero »

I retired in 2014 and considered Money Matters as a potential advisor. I ruled them out when it became evident they were timing the market. However, to re-enforce my decision I kept up with the weekly radio program, waiting for his next sell signal which came in Dec 2018. For comparison purposes I tracked my largest IRA as though I followed his advice, effective the date he got out. FYI, the IRA I used had a value of $1.6 MM in Dec '18. I've continued tracking diligently, on a daily basis, which now includes the second sell and buy back that occurred this year. It also included deductions I make monthly to support my normal sources of income. I also dollar cost averaged the incremental contributions he made when buying back in, in early 2019. I did not try to factor in what I understand to be a 1-1.25% annual fee he charges. Through Friday's close June 5th 2020, my actual IRA is up 16.1% over the comparison period. My comparative IRA using Moraif's advice is down 2.32%. This represents an 18.42% differential for the worse. He also confesses he made similar sell/buy decisions in '10 and '11. These also missed the mark. God help those who buy into his strategy and find themselves spinning their wheels at best or likely going backwards financially. If I had included his management fee the results would have been even poorer.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

According to the new market alert Moraif has finally bought his clients back into 100% of their bond allocation and 25% of their equity allocation.
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... deo-email/
Explorer
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Explorer »

Looks like this advisor feeds (himself) on the fears of his investors. Sad.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif bought back in today to 75% of the equity positions of his clients. What a crazy strategy!

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -tomorrow/
TravelforFun
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by TravelforFun »

H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:15 pm Moraif bought back in today to 75% of the equity positions of his clients. What a crazy strategy!

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -tomorrow/
Is this information publicly available or you have it because you're a Moraif's firm's subscriber?

TravelforFun
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

I'm on his email list. I also check his website once a week. I have been listening to him quite a while, and for people who don't know about investing he has a seemingly persuasive presentation. The problem is, it just does not work. The only people who have done well these last ten years have been the people who work for RPOA. The 1.25% fee insures that they will do well, even if their clients don't.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:15 pm Moraif bought back in today to 75% of the equity positions of his clients. What a crazy strategy!
That does seem to be a major reversal of his earlier concerns about the pandemic and economy.

I often hear his radio programs over the weekend on two different radio stations in my area.

The funds they use appear to be tactical in nature. The portfolio turnover and fund expenses that are presented seem a bit high.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 2_9497.htm

The prospectus shows expenses of 0.75% (after fee waiver) and turnover of 64% for the equity fund. The fixed income fund shows expenses of 0.67% and turnover of 257%.
Electron
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Here is an excellent analysis and review of Moraif by the Annuity Slayer on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaURmAUCNdM
DFAMAN
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

Thanks, Hornblower! I think this is a pretty devastating critique of the results for Moraif's clients. Note that that vast majority of his funds under management came in well subsequent to the 2008 market sell "call" about which he likes to brag. The overwhelming majority of the billions (yes, $4.43 billion reported on latest form ADV) invested with Moraif's firm was invested subsequent to 2008, and for these people it has been a very unfortunate investment decision. I wish that he had to give these facts to his clients/potential clients.

According to the brochure accompanying the latest ADV, the firm says, "We charge an annual fee based on the amount of your assets we manage, which is generally equal to 1.25% of the assets under management, including cash and cash equivalents (the “Program Fee”)." If I did the math right, that's over $50 million in fees per year being extracted from clients.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif will be buying in the last portion of equities for his clients next week.

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... deo-email/
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif bought the last 25% for his equity clients on 9/9/2020. The S&P opened 3369.82 and closed at 3398.96.

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -tomorrow/
hnd
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by hnd »

i've never heard buy and hold forever being called aggressive and a young mans game before i heard Moraif say it
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:51 pm Moraif bought the last 25% for his equity clients on 9/9/2020. The S&P opened 3369.82 and closed at 3398.96.
I'd like to see them present their market timing strategy in this forum. The responses would definitely be interesting. They would likely do much better with a simple asset allocation and rebalancing or a balanced fund such as Wellington or Wellesley Income.

In a way, I'm surprised they are not selling annuities. They could highlight the advantages and collect the high commissions.
Electron
garlandwhizzer
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by garlandwhizzer »

This is simple. Nobody knows with reliable certainty where the market is going over any signifiant time frame. There are 2 types of investors. Type 1 know that they don't know where it's going. Type 2 don't know that they don't know where it's going and market time with substantial portions of their portfolio. The investment graveyard contains lots of type 2. If you have a well thought out investment plan, my advice is either to stay the course of at most to make rare and modest portfolio changes in response to compelling current events.

Garland Whizzer
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Electron wrote: Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:39 pm
H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:51 pm Moraif bought the last 25% for his equity clients on 9/9/2020. The S&P opened 3369.82 and closed at 3398.96.
I'd like to see them present their market timing strategy in this forum. The responses would definitely be interesting. They would likely do much better with a simple asset allocation and rebalancing or a balanced fund such as Wellington or Wellesley Income.

In a way, I'm surprised they are not selling annuities. They could highlight the advantages and collect the high commissions.
They do sell annuities. Moraif just does not hype that on his show. All of his advisors are also licensed insurance agents and sell insurance products. Here is from the RPOA ADV Brochure:

We are affiliated with Moraif Financial Group, Inc. (“MFG”), dba Moraif Insurance Group, a licensed
insurance agency, through common control and ownership. All persons providing investment advice
on behalf of our firm are also required to be licensed insurance agents. These persons will earn
commission-based compensation for selling insurance products, including insurance products they sell
to you. MFG will also receive a portion of the commission-based compensation. Insurance commissions
earned are separate from our advisory fees. See the Fees and Compensation section for more
information on the compensation received by insurance agents who are also IARs of our firm.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:17 pm They do sell annuities. Moraif just does not hype that on his show. All of his advisors are also licensed insurance agents and sell insurance products.

"Insurance commissions earned are separate from our advisory fees."
Thanks for passing along the information. Total costs sound quite high when you include mutual fund expenses, advisory fees and any insurance commissions.

Your forum name reminds me of the Hornblower brokerage firm my father used back in the 1950s and 1960s. According to Wikipedia Hornblower was founded in 1888. I always thought that was a cool name for a brokerage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornblower_%26_Weeks
Electron
heyyou
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by heyyou »

Note that that vast majority of his funds under management came in well subsequent to the 2008 market sell "call" about which he likes to brag. The overwhelming majority of the billions (yes, $4.43 billion reported on latest form ADV) invested with Moraif's firm was invested subsequent to 2008, and for these people it has been a very unfortunate investment decision.
Elaine Garzarelli (or a similar name) did the same in a different time frame. She was an advisor at an active fund in 2000 when she guessed correctly, then promoted to fund manager, but she was very wrong in 2008.
H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

The Annuity Slayer has an updated review of Moraif - enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCoq4sv8IqQ
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:11 pm The Annuity Slayer has an updated review of Moraif - enjoy!
That performance record is certainly a disappointment. They probably argue that the risk adjusted returns are acceptable.

I see that the Annuity Slayer also covers the Online Trading Academy. In February I attended one of their free Power Trading Workshops and received an Amazon 7" Fire Tablet as a gift. They talk about spectacular returns that I knew were totally unrealistic. I believe they start students with a low cost first course that is followed with additional courses at very high costs.
Electron
Actin
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Actin »

Electron wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:02 pm
H.Hornblower wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:11 pm The Annuity Slayer has an updated review of Moraif - enjoy!
That performance record is certainly a disappointment. They probably argue that the risk adjusted returns are acceptable.

I see that the Annuity Slayer also covers the Online Trading Academy. In February I attended one of their free Power Trading Workshops and received an Amazon 7" Fire Tablet as a gift. They talk about spectacular returns that I knew were totally unrealistic. I believe they start students with a low cost first course that is followed with additional courses at very high costs.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/online-tra ... customers/

OTA used to be on the radio every weekend. I loved listening to the two slimball hosts say how quickly you could get rich with short sells. It amazes me that anyone could even fall for something that was such an obvious scam.

They apparently made 370 million over the past six years, so those free tablets are just a drop in the bucket.

Just out of curiosity, what were the demographics of your free class?
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

Actin wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:48 pmThey apparently made 370 million over the past six years, so those free tablets are just a drop in the bucket.

Just out of curiosity, what were the demographics of your free class?
There were only six or seven people at my workshop including both men and women. They tended to be fairly young or of middle age. One somewhat older man left after a very short time. I think all the remaining people other than myself signed up for the next class.

They had these workshops all over this area and free tablets were advertised for all of them. One surprise was that Online Trading Academy has a U.S. patent and they made a big deal out of it. I found the patent online and don't see much there of any significance. It's also not clear how it could be enforced.

https://patents.google.com/patent/US8650115B1/en

The fines mentioned in the article come as quite a surprise. It will be interesting to see how things change. I did receive an email recently offering registration for a free online Zoom trading class. I also recall one of their radio programs which was actually quite entertaining despite my seeing through all the hype.
Electron
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