Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

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skor99
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Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
brad.clarkston
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by brad.clarkston »

The joy is in doing more with your family or getting a hobby.

Constantly worrying of the market is just going to give you an ulcer. As long as your diversified across the index's who cares?
burritoLover
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by burritoLover »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
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awval999
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by awval999 »

Why is it joyless?

Do you think all the brainpower and might and unlimited resources of our species cannot defeat a virus?
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

brad.clarkston wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:05 pm The joy is in doing more with your family or getting a hobby.

Constantly worrying of the market is just going to give you an ulcer. As long as your diversified across the index's who cares?
Understand that and I am diversified and conservative as well. My point is about the dichotomy we see between the stock world and the real world. Of course I feel better that the market is up instead of down, but is the ‘up’ real or an illusion ?
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

burritoLover wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
Absolutely not, see my previous post.
Normchad
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Normchad »

I have no problem justifying this stock market performance.

We are in a very business friendly environment. Interest rates are very low. Companies are sitting on mountains of cash.

And people have not stopped spending money. Housing sales are going nuts; as a sign that people are not afraid to spend money.

I agree it seems surreal, to simultaneously have so much bad news and uncertainty in the world, and also have an economy that is doing so well for so many.

I know though that a lot of people really are hurting; and may never recover. I'm not complaining, my life is going very well. But even I have been affected in tangible ways by this pandemic. So yes, my balance sheet is rocking, but there is no joy in it when I know how bad others are hurting.
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

Normchad wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:15 pm I have no problem justifying this stock market performance.

We are in a very business friendly environment. Interest rates are very low. Companies are sitting on mountains of cash.

And people have not stopped spending money. Housing sales are going nuts; as a sign that people are not afraid to spend money.

I agree it seems surreal, to simultaneously have so much bad news and uncertainty in the world, and also have an economy that is doing so well for so many.

I know though that a lot of people really are hurting; and may never recover. I'm not complaining, my life is going very well. But even I have been affected in tangible ways by this pandemic. So yes, my balance sheet is rocking, but there is no joy in it when I know how bad others are hurting.
My exact feelings in much better words. Question is how long this empty party without a celebration can go on ?
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JoMoney
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by JoMoney »

The past decade has seen broad US stocks grow at a 15% CAGR, and people have been complaining about it and expecting it to fall the whole way up.
If you look at the past 20 year period, it only had a 6% CAGR.
Somewhere between those two periods you get something closer to the long-term average over the past 95+ years of a 10% CAGR.
I'm sure was plenty of "joyless" in the 20th century too... somehow we keep moving forward
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Jeff Albertson »

The stock market is not the economy:
Image
https://ritholtz.com/2020/09/unprecedented/
"The unprecedented occurs all the time, but if you want to see something that is orders of magnitude off the scale of the usual non-correlation between stocks and the economy, that inverse correlation is really something else.
Man, Q2 2020 is the outlier of all outliers."
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by sperry8 »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
Who says the market and the real world were ever co-joined? There is no correlation between GDP and market returns. The market is not the economy. Did you know there are over 600,000 businesses in the USA that employ over 20 people? Guess how many are publicly traded? ~1%. The businesses that are hurting are severely under-represented in the market. Of the publicly traded companies, some are doing better due to the "bad news" than they were before. Due to how indexes like the S&P 500 are constructed (market weighting), those companies have an outsized influence in returns and thus the market is up. Add to this the fact that interest rates are zero and inflation is non-existent and you get a scenario where money (which seeks return) is flowing into the markets and paying an ever higher P/E for returns. Money (people who wield it anyway) need returns. They get none in bonds, treasuries, cash, etc.

There is no other game in town, except hard assets such as real estate, gold, and possibly bitcoin. That's it.

On another note - if the media was announcing the plight of main street in the past as heavily as it is now (during covid), many would've wondered how the markets could have hit new all time highs years ago. Main street has generally been left behind for decades. It is simply that the media is reporting it now to such an extent that many are conflating the two ideas when in actuality they have always existed. Perhaps to a lesser extent, but still to an extent that would have had many question market returns.

The market returns the present value of future earnings, including dividends, times the price people are willing to pay for those earnings. The companies represented in the market (the way it's constructed) result in market NAV going higher in the current no interest, no inflation environment. There is no other way to garner returns. Until this changes, or until people/pension funds/insurance funds/sovereign wealth funds change the price they are willing to pay for those earnings, prices will continue to rise.

I'd say the market is still undervalued in this current environment. Some companies are overvalued (e.g., Amazon) but many remain undervalued. Cash and bonds will return very little, if at all, going forward. Thus money that seeks returns should continue to push the market further.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by barnaclebob »

People have been making nervous posts about all time market highs for a long long time here.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Carguy85 »

Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Manufacturing is busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even the months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
Last edited by Carguy85 on Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:14 pm
brad.clarkston wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:05 pm The joy is in doing more with your family or getting a hobby.

Constantly worrying of the market is just going to give you an ulcer. As long as your diversified across the index's who cares?
Understand that and I am diversified and conservative as well. My point is about the dichotomy we see between the stock world and the real world. Of course I feel better that the market is up instead of down, but is the ‘up’ real or an illusion ?
The ride is part results part optimism part speculation. You need to decide which components are driving this rocket. Wait until 3rd quarter results come out, you are going to see that divergence show up. I'd say right now more than half of this is pure rampant speculation. I'm also optimistic what pent up demand will bring on a flood of spending eventually.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Carguy85 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
They are gouging on cheap credit, I've seen more than a few examples of that level of spending going on here too. Not everyone, but this has the feel of the early 80's euphoria, but it's not going to last forever.
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Impatience
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Impatience »

Joyless? I’m loving every second of it. Maybe I’m a weirdo, or just an optimist.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by manatee2005 »

burritoLover wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
Actually I would love record lows so I can buy more! I want record highs 1 minute before I retire.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by manatee2005 »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:46 pm
Carguy85 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
They are gouging on cheap credit, I've seen more than a few examples of that level of spending going on here too. Not everyone, but this has the feel of the early 80's euphoria, but it's not going to last forever.
80s euphoria lasted till 2000 right?

They don't call them roaring 20s for nothing.
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

Carguy85 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Manufacturing is busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even the months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
This is good to know. Am surprised to hear that car dealerships are busy though. Who is buying cars if a lot of folks are working from home and a lot are scared for their jobs ?
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

manatee2005 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:57 pm
burritoLover wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
Actually I would love record lows so I can buy more! I want record highs 1 minute before I retire.
You won’t know it is a record low till later, so let the market be high😃
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

manatee2005 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:58 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:46 pm
Carguy85 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
They are gouging on cheap credit, I've seen more than a few examples of that level of spending going on here too. Not everyone, but this has the feel of the early 80's euphoria, but it's not going to last forever.
80s euphoria lasted till 2000 right?

They don't call them roaring 20s for nothing.
Not exactly, we did have recessions during that time. Interest rates were also high, as in very high! Today we have the opposite.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
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skor99
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by skor99 »

sperry8 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:33 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
Who says the market and the real world were ever co-joined? There is no correlation between GDP and market returns. The market is not the economy. Did you know there are over 600,000 businesses in the USA that employ over 20 people? Guess how many are publicly traded? ~1%. The businesses that are hurting are severely under-represented in the market. Of the publicly traded companies, some are doing better due to the "bad news" than they were before. Due to how indexes like the S&P 500 are constructed (market weighting), those companies have an outsized influence in returns and thus the market is up. Add to this the fact that interest rates are zero and inflation is non-existent and you get a scenario where money (which seeks return) is flowing into the markets and paying an ever higher P/E for returns. Money (people who wield it anyway) need returns. They get none in bonds, treasuries, cash, etc.

There is no other game in town, except hard assets such as real estate, gold, and possibly bitcoin. That's it.

On another note - if the media was announcing the plight of main street in the past as heavily as it is now (during covid), many would've wondered how the markets could have hit new all time highs years ago. Main street has generally been left behind for decades. It is simply that the media is reporting it now to such an extent that many are conflating the two ideas when in actuality they have always existed. Perhaps to a lesser extent, but still to an extent that would have had many question market returns.

The market returns the present value of future earnings, including dividends, times the price people are willing to pay for those earnings. The companies represented in the market (the way it's constructed) result in market NAV going higher in the current no interest, no inflation environment. There is no other way to garner returns. Until this changes, or until people/pension funds/insurance funds/sovereign wealth funds change the price they are willing to pay for those earnings, prices will continue to rise.

I'd say the market is still undervalued in this current environment. Some companies are overvalued (e.g., Amazon) but many remain undervalued. Cash and bonds will return very little, if at all, going forward. Thus money that seeks returns should continue to push the market further.

Nicely explained
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by manatee2005 »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:03 pm
manatee2005 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:58 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:46 pm
Carguy85 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 pm Everyone I talk to biz is crazy here in good ol middle America...record home sales, car dealerships are having record months. Construction trades are extremely busy. Most everyone is BUSY. Even a regional manager of fast food chains has had record months even months without dining areas open. Talked to a hair stylist today... busy busy. Depending on where you live (east or west coast for instance) this certainly may not be the vibe.
They are gouging on cheap credit, I've seen more than a few examples of that level of spending going on here too. Not everyone, but this has the feel of the early 80's euphoria, but it's not going to last forever.
80s euphoria lasted till 2000 right?

They don't call them roaring 20s for nothing.
Not exactly, we did have recessions during that time. Interest rates were also high, as in very high! Today we have the opposite.
Doesn't matter, the stocks went up 4x in the 90s.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Jeff Albertson »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:00 pm This is good to know. Am surprised to hear that car dealerships are busy though. Who is buying cars if a lot of folks are working from home and a lot are scared for their jobs ?
https://www.axios.com/its-a-great-time ... cf779.html
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020 ... ings-were/
In mid-March, every major auto manufacturer stopped production — for the first time since World War II.
That led to a shortage of vehicles on dealer lots, in particular pickup trucks and SUVs.
Used cars grew scarce too, as fewer people traded in vehicles or returned leases during the pandemic's early lockdowns. And many banks aren't collecting on bad auto loans, either, meaning that fewer vehicles than usual were repossessed.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by sambb »

global events pass, and we have a great underlying economy with great companies, market doing nicely. bear markets of dec 2018 and march 2020 are in the past...
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HomerJ
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by HomerJ »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:25 pm The past decade has seen broad US stocks grow at a 15% CAGR, and people have been complaining about it and expecting it to fall the whole way up.
If you look at the past 20 year period, it only had a 6% CAGR.
Somewhere between those two periods you get something closer to the long-term average over the past 95+ years of a 10% CAGR.
I'm sure was plenty of "joyless" in the 20th century too... somehow we keep moving forward
This is important.
If you look at the past 20 year period, it only had a 6% CAGR.
It's closer to 7%.

People keep saying the next 10 years are going to be bad.... But 10 years is not 20 years is not 30 years.

2000-2010 was pretty bad... TWO bear markets.

And yet 2000-2020 still gave us a decent return. 7% a year... Think about that... Investing in 2000, the worst possible time in recent history, with the highest valuations in U.S. history... you still got 7% a year long-term 20 year returns.

Stop trying to time the market in the short-term.

Long-term is what matters... 7% nominal 20-year returns is our recent past WORST case.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by BernardShakey »

sambb wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:30 pm global events pass, and we have a great underlying economy with great companies, market doing nicely. bear markets of dec 2018 and march 2020 are in the past...
Sounding almost cocky...March 23rd was pretty humbling if you ask me.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by missionman »

manatee2005 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:57 pm
burritoLover wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
Actually I would love record lows so I can buy more! I want record highs 1 minute before I retire.
But then what? Do you think today's retirees should be 100% cash??
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by jebmke »

$3 trillion of created money goes a long way in a few months
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by manatee2005 »

missionman wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:58 pm
manatee2005 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:57 pm
burritoLover wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
It doesn't need to be justified - that is not how markets work. Unless you are not in the market, I'm not sure why you would be complaining about record highs? Would you rather it be record lows?
Actually I would love record lows so I can buy more! I want record highs 1 minute before I retire.
But then what? Do you think today's retirees should be 100% cash??
There are other things than cash and stocks.
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FIREchief
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by FIREchief »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:14 pm My point is about the dichotomy we see between the stock world and the real world.
What is this "real world" that you speak of? :confused

Up, down, what's the difference..... My LMP continues to do nothing (but with an extreme degree of safety 8-) ) and my RP has bounced around like a ping pong ball this year. It's all fun!! :sharebeer

The real fun part is that we have now booked about seven years worth of the returns that "valuations" have predicted (according to the experts), and the year is barely 2/3 finished. :mrgreen:
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by MoonOrb »

The entire point of investing the way we do here is so we don't need to worry about what the market is doing.

Market is at all time highs! Invest.
Market is swooning! Invest.
Market is barely moving! Invest.

Get a pet or take up gardening or spend time with family or go to church or try yoga or learn to cook or join a gym or something to get joy.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by jebmke »

MoonOrb wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:13 pm The entire point of investing the way we do here is so we don't need to worry about what the market is doing.
I'm not sure I'd go that far. I do agree that one needs to make some kind of set of assumptions about different outcomes and plan accordingly. On the downside, that could be X% shrinkage in wealth. That could affect people differently in the near term, both psychologically and practically. Or it could continue to go up.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by 2marshmallow »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
Read in the WSJ the other day that 87% of the stock market is owned by the top 10% in terms of wealth. The stock market does not reflect “the real world”. Sad perhaps, maybe even cruel.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by 22twain »

BernardShakey wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:49 pm March 23rd was pretty humbling if you ask me.
Were you around in 2008-09? Or 2000-03?
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by LilyFleur »

2marshmallow wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:48 pm
skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
Read in the WSJ the other day that 87% of the stock market is owned by the top 10% in terms of wealth. The stock market does not reflect “the real world”. Sad perhaps, maybe even cruel.
Indeed. The WSJ has also reported about the COVID effect of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, and the poor getting sicker because of more people in smaller dwellings, and more people who work with the public living in those smaller dwellings.

It seems somewhat tone deaf to be gleeful about the market--at least publicly--while so many have lost jobs, lost their businesses, been furloughed, or had family members die alone.

My daughter competed in Irish dance competitions. One of the things her teacher--who was Irish--taught the children was after a competition, to walk up to the results sheet, check your results, and walk quietly away. It was a big lesson in being considerate of others who are less fortunate than yourself.
BernardShakey
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by BernardShakey »

22twain wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:52 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:49 pm March 23rd was pretty humbling if you ask me.
Were you around in 2008-09? Or 2000-03?
Yes, I was. And I was invested in the market in Oct 1987, though with very little $$ then. The speed of what happened in March was unprecedented in my lifetime, less that one day in Oct 1987.

My point was let's not pretend we know what's in store (sambb's quote just struck me "global events pass, and we have a great underlying economy with great companies, market doing nicely. bear markets of dec 2018 and march 2020 are in the past...")
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
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Noobvestor
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Noobvestor »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:14 pm
brad.clarkston wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:05 pm The joy is in doing more with your family or getting a hobby.

Constantly worrying of the market is just going to give you an ulcer. As long as your diversified across the index's who cares?
Understand that and I am diversified and conservative as well. My point is about the dichotomy we see between the stock world and the real world. Of course I feel better that the market is up instead of down, but is the ‘up’ real or an illusion ?
Remember 2009? I do. The economy was still in terrible shape, but the stock market started recovering. It then ... never stopped. That was over a decade ago now. People came back years later saying 'I was waiting for the dip!' that never came. Tune out the noise. Stay the course.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
Wanderingwheelz
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

Normchad wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:15 pm I have no problem justifying this stock market performance.

We are in a very business friendly environment. Interest rates are very low. Companies are sitting on mountains of cash.

And people have not stopped spending money. Housing sales are going nuts; as a sign that people are not afraid to spend money.

I agree it seems surreal, to simultaneously have so much bad news and uncertainty in the world, and also have an economy that is doing so well for so many.

I know though that a lot of people really are hurting; and may never recover. I'm not complaining, my life is going very well. But even I have been affected in tangible ways by this pandemic. So yes, my balance sheet is rocking, but there is no joy in it when I know how bad others are hurting.
Companies are sitting in mountains of *debt*.

People are not afraid to *borrow* money.

There. Fixed it for you.
whereskyle
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by whereskyle »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:23 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:15 pm I have no problem justifying this stock market performance.

We are in a very business friendly environment. Interest rates are very low. Companies are sitting on mountains of cash.

And people have not stopped spending money. Housing sales are going nuts; as a sign that people are not afraid to spend money.

I agree it seems surreal, to simultaneously have so much bad news and uncertainty in the world, and also have an economy that is doing so well for so many.

I know though that a lot of people really are hurting; and may never recover. I'm not complaining, my life is going very well. But even I have been affected in tangible ways by this pandemic. So yes, my balance sheet is rocking, but there is no joy in it when I know how bad others are hurting.
My exact feelings in much better words. Question is how long this empty party without a celebration can go on ?
The stock market has been doing very well from a long-term perspective for more than a hundred years. There have been millions of people in abject poverty the entire time. Prosperity for all (or even most) has never been a necessary condition for stock market success. Do not try to time the market.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Chicken Little
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Chicken Little »

Take a look at the Tesla chart and tell me if you think it will end well.

If you didn't lose your job or buy a house at peak value that you had to unload, these last three crises were easy to sail through. Accumulators on auto-pilot with paycheck, and maybe even sticking a toe in the water on the big drops.

When is the last time there has been stock market capitulation? I'd argue that most of us have never experienced it. Maybe tech sector bust, and certainly individual capitulation based on specific circumstance.

I can't say a real test is on the way, just know that very few on here are prepared for it. Most would probably gleefully buy on the way down in early stages, making it worse.

We're conditioned for V's. Let's hope they keep coming. Probably will...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... k-of-japan
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by JoeRetire »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
You are looking for joy in all the wrong places.

The market is not the economy.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.
Kelrex
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Kelrex »

I'm curious.

OP, are you not prepared for a major recession? Is a catastrophic market crash not part of your investment strategy?

There's always a recession coming, and just because it's not rational doesn't mean it isn't predictable. Maybe we can't predict when, but we can predict that it will happen.

Do you have an inevitable recession baked into your investment plan? If so, then why the worry?
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by jebmke »

Kelrex wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:11 am Do you have an inevitable recession baked into your investment plan? If so, then why the worry?
We are already in a recession. I think OP is questioning the valuations, as do I. I don’t worry about it because I am in a position to ignore the inflated values. I do periodically ask myself whether there are any actions to be taken and always come back with a “no” for my situation.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

MoonOrb wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:13 pmThe entire point of investing the way we do here is so we don't need to worry about what the market is doing.
That's never worked for me, I still worry about money every day.
GreenLawn
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by GreenLawn »

I'm slowly learning to be comfortable in this market. I was planning on another dip to buy more VTI before the market took off for another 10 years. As a noobie investor I now know that the greybeards in the financial world have no idea what the stock market will do in the short term. These folks have spent their lives studying the market, and they turned out (so far) to be 100% wrong on the rally being short-lived before crashing again. They have credentials, experience, references from peers, and none of this is worth a hill of beans.

If this rocket ship continues it's upward trajectory I'll be at my desired AA within the next year or two, so no harm done. A heavier than planned cash/bond allocation is comforting during this turbulent time, so maybe its worked out for the best. I can watch the unfolding chaos knowing my retirement is secure, assuming Social Security survives in some form.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Dottie57 »

I logged into my accounts today and was joyful when I saw the total.

I don’t understand the market. But I agreed to take what Mr Market gives.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by JackoC »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
I don't generally feel 'joy' at good investment returns. I like them better than bad ones, sure. Most people feel worse about market drops than they feel good about market rallies, 'studies' say AFAIK. But it's definitely true of me, maybe more than average. It all has to be factored into the best, imperfect, estimate you can make of how much investment risk to take so bum-out at market lows doesn't make you bail out for bad emotional reasons. And that tends to be the strongest feeling I think, the panicky 'I've gotta get out' feeling in situations like this past March. In up markets my 'joy' is always tempered by the fact I'm not all-in on risk assets, so I'm 'missing out' on some of the gain, as well as just generally faster 'hedonic adjustment' to a bigger portfolio number than a smaller one.

As far me doing well when vast numbers are suffering from want, that's a constant in human existence up to now for anyone doing well. Without getting into any socio-political details of how, I think we almost all hope for a day when everyone (on earth) has at least a comfortable material existence. And the % in extreme poverty has declined markedly, but the world isn't close to that goal still, and rising expectations keep moving the goal posts. But the moving goalposts of higher expectations are part of what drives economic growth and investment return.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by Maverick3320 »

skor99 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm Market is setting new records everyday. In normal times, this would be a joyful time but this time feels different for obvious reasons. How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ? Can anyone justify s&p 500 and nasdaq shattering records everyday and dow getting close to all time highs ?
How long can this separation between the real world and the market persist ?

As long as the government keeps propping up the market. According to some people, this can go on forever with no conquences (debt doesn't matter, inflation doesn't matter, etc). You be the judge.
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Re: Where is the joy ? How long can this joyless ride last ?

Post by brad.clarkston »

When did this forum turn into a bunch of chicken little's? This much angst isn't good for your health.
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