Suggestions for 100x moonshots
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Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Last edited by novemberrain on Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:01 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
While a 100x moonshot is doubtful with an index the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) might be the most hopeful. While the NYSE has been more competitive for new listings lately over the last 20+ years many of the innovative companies have started out with the listing on the Nasdaq, and many have stayed there. The QQQ might capture some winners. Some might argue that a sector fund might be appropriate, but the moonshot could come from a sector that is unknown as of today.
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Go long on out-of-the-money options on a volatile individual stock. For instance Tesla's stock recently went up 5x -- with sufficiently risky call options a few of the wild-eyed Tesla bulls probably were able to get 100x out of it. You can do it with a stock you expect to crash, too, by going long on put options instead.
70/30 portfolio | Equity: global market weight | Bonds: 20% long-term munis - 10% LEMB
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
+1bluquark wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:33 am Go long on out-of-the-money options on a volatile individual stock. For instance Tesla's stock recently went up 5x -- with sufficiently risky call options a few of the wild-eyed Tesla bulls probably were able to get 100x out of it. You can do it with a stock you expect to crash, too, by going long on put options instead.
Deep OTM options are the lotto ticket you are looking for. Beware though, much like regular lotto tickets, most will lose playing this game. Is it really worth it rather than just putting the money in your normal account? If that isn’t exciting enough for you, take a vacation with it. At least you’ll get some enjoyment out of it.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Short term puts on Tesla. I don't have the guts for it, but that's a good gamble.
Username is not serious :)
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Buy a low cost S&P 500, reinvest the dividends, and let it simmer for about 50 years.
I know it's not exciting, but that's the path to success.
If you're trying to gamble, and want to make volatile bets where you don't have any expected advantage (likely the opposite), options are the easy way to get the kind of leverage required for that. If you limit it to buying options (and selling to close should you win), it at least will only put the money you used to buy the option at risk.
I know it's not exciting, but that's the path to success.
If you're trying to gamble, and want to make volatile bets where you don't have any expected advantage (likely the opposite), options are the easy way to get the kind of leverage required for that. If you limit it to buying options (and selling to close should you win), it at least will only put the money you used to buy the option at risk.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
There's also the HEDGEFUNDIE portfolio ... viewtopic.php?f=10&t=272007
The stated intention of the author in that thread is to turn $100k into $10 million .... 100x as you are seeking to ...
The stated intention of the author in that thread is to turn $100k into $10 million .... 100x as you are seeking to ...
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
If we knew would we tell?novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
My suggestion is you conduct this experiment inside your Roth IRA, so that if it works you won't have to give away 1/3 of the proceeds.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Regards,
If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear. -George Orwell
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Interesting topic. Take a look at NK (nantkwest). It gets lumped in with the covid stocks. (Probably because it has a covid vax and therapeutic). It's main play is cancer. Specifically, pancreatic as of now. They worked with ex-senator Harry Reid (who claims to be in full remission) and are also working with Alex Trebek. Being a Jeopardy fan, I hope he also goes into full remmish. Just a thought. Could go to zero, could go to a 1000.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
4% of your money severely under-performing due to gambling on moonshots will have worse results than putting your whole portfolio with Edward Jones.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
My suggestion if you want to hit some moon shots: follow and scour the ARK invest website. They are one of the few managed funds that publish their holdings and are open about their research. They have multiple funds seeking all moon shots (innovation, growth, future). Watch for when they add a new company into their funds. Also look through their holdings and research individual companies and business plans. An example would be like a gene editing company fixing sickle cell anemia w crispr technology.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Also would recommend being a part of pre IPO stuff. It isn’t easy but that is where real money can happen. Equity in like neuralink right now might pop 1000x. Looking at its potential to unlock disease and human bandwidth and the top edge talent they have assembled.
Finding this stuff is not passive at all. Getting involved is hard. But I know retail investors that have. People assembling now $25M for SpaceX at $40B valuation.
These things make sense for younger investors. It’s not about losing 4% of net worth later after a long career. The Edward Jones comment only makes sense if you continue to rebalance into a completely losing situation year after year. Not a big deal if you plant a few $10000 seeds. It’s about getting a chance for financial freedom at 35.
I’d focus on deep dives and the math. Things don’t rocket ship unless when you look under the hood and there is explosive potential for disruption as well as effective evidence of actually making things and success in growth.
One more tip: buy and hold. When you buy ask yourself if you’re going to be likely happy owning this in ten years. “Trading” with options etc is a losers game. Because the house has too high a rake (capital gains). When you kill and make $200k in 2020 the US government doesn’t refund you when you lose $100k in 2021 (actually $3k ha).
Oh and 3X leverage... sssshhhh.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
There is always junk bonds (aka "high yield bonds"). When(if?) they fail, you at least get a chance of a share or two in the new stock after bankruptcy. Some pay 100x+ yield.
Whether rich or poor, a young woman should know how a bank account works, understand the composition of mortgages and bonds, and know the value of interest and how it accumulates. -Hetty Green
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
My standard line was that when I want to gamble, I go to Vegas. At minimum, I'd get free drinks and know quickly if I won.
People say nothing is impossible. I do nothing all day.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Last edited by novemberrain on Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
+2software wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:57 am+1bluquark wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:33 am Go long on out-of-the-money options on a volatile individual stock. For instance Tesla's stock recently went up 5x -- with sufficiently risky call options a few of the wild-eyed Tesla bulls probably were able to get 100x out of it. You can do it with a stock you expect to crash, too, by going long on put options instead.
Deep OTM options are the lotto ticket you are looking for. Beware though, much like regular lotto tickets, most will lose playing this game. Is it really worth it rather than just putting the money in your normal account? If that isn’t exciting enough for you, take a vacation with it. At least you’ll get some enjoyment out of it.
I do a couple of these here and there looking for roulette-style payoffs of 35:1 or so. One I'm doing now is buying OTM options as mentioned above, specifically buying the Jan15 2021 $40 call options for RDS.B for roughly 25 cents each. Perhaps the death of fossil fuels has been greatly exaggerated, or the middle east gets tenuous, or people start to drive and fly again, or maybe it just gets cold this winter and the folks that still have houses would like to heat them. Either way it has been proven that the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices; if/when oil prices rebound these majors will gush tons of cash with all the cuts to their dividends, exploration, management, 401k plans, etc and their share prices will follow.
To hit your 100X payout, you'd need to buy these options at .20 each with no fees then have RDS.B hit $60 by Jan 15th. (please re-read the 'lottery ticket' quote above prior to spending that easy $$$)
As a bonus, you can take the next 9.5 years of the decade thought you needed for 100X return!
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Options is the way to go. Don’t overthink it, just pick something that has started popping up in the headlines and try to pile in before everyone else with short to medium term calls - or, if you’re late to the party, puts. Have an exit plan set before entry so you don’t lose more than X% in one play.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
OP,
SLV = Silver or GLD = Gold.
But, if that happened (100X), you may not be able to cash out.
KlangFool
SLV = Silver or GLD = Gold.
But, if that happened (100X), you may not be able to cash out.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
aapl 600 or Tsla 3000 calls
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
barnaclebob wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:29 am4% of your money severely under-performing due to gambling on moonshots will have worse results than putting your whole portfolio with Edward Jones.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
1 fund
- whodidntante
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
You've basically wondered into a jockey convention and asked for an opinion on a race car. You really must get over to r/wallstreetbets. This is what they do.
Side note: do jockeys have conventions?
Side note: do jockeys have conventions?
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
What happens with an APPL September 2020 option? This obviously happens from time to time.
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Op
Here is my suggestion VGT, here is how I got my first 487 shares: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=280668
I am currently holding 1803 shares in my Roth IRA or $570,206.70 as of today's closing price $316.14, DCA 252, paper gain of $114,695.
It is 30% of my 1.89 million portfolio
wish me luck
Here is my suggestion VGT, here is how I got my first 487 shares: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=280668
I am currently holding 1803 shares in my Roth IRA or $570,206.70 as of today's closing price $316.14, DCA 252, paper gain of $114,695.
It is 30% of my 1.89 million portfolio
wish me luck
Last edited by retire2022 on Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
- whodidntante
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
whodidntante wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:45 pmYou mean coasters? Since I have options trading privileges at so many brokerages, I have a few spare copies if anyone needs one.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Bitcoin
TQQQ
ARKK
TQQQ
ARKK
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
You only need a compound annual growth of 58% to achieve 10 year return of 100x (ha ha, piece of cake right?). Sure... you could try to do it a lot faster with options... but taking your post at face value, I think a high-flying tech stock is the more viable path. You have to pick a good one though! Pick a software company with revenue < 1B. One such name is MongoDB, and I'm sure there are many others in a similar phase of their growth curve. (Take a look at the financials, it grew from $150 million in revenue in 2018 to $450 million in 2020. That's higher than 58%. But can they sustain that growth rate for 10 more years? Who knows what will happen... could keep growing, could slow down or reverse, or could get acquired by a bigger fish.)
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Bitcoin is nowhere near the moon now. TQQQ may be dangerous, not sure about its future. ARKK is an active fund so probably the manager can make it go higher and higher magically...
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Why not toy around with some OTC penny stocks?
I saw rumblings on Twitter about RLFTF a couple of weeks ago (Relief Therapeutics -- with a marginally promising COVID treatment) and nearly put in a but at $0.15 -- but the commission at Fidelity was $50, which was half of what I was looking to gamble. Anyway, it spiked to $0.80 or so and is now trading around $0.50.
I suspect that it being a foreign-listed OTC stock will keep it out of the Robin Hood universe, which may limit upside.
I saw rumblings on Twitter about RLFTF a couple of weeks ago (Relief Therapeutics -- with a marginally promising COVID treatment) and nearly put in a but at $0.15 -- but the commission at Fidelity was $50, which was half of what I was looking to gamble. Anyway, it spiked to $0.80 or so and is now trading around $0.50.
I suspect that it being a foreign-listed OTC stock will keep it out of the Robin Hood universe, which may limit upside.
merely an interested amateur
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
There are two ways to get a moonshot:
1) Buy an underlying asset that is highly volatile and will produce 100x return with non-negligible probability
2) Buy a derivative security that will produce 100x return with non-negligible probability
Quite a few things in category 1 have been mentioned and I don't have much to add. For 2, I've mostly only seen options mentioned. Futures can provide leverage of 20:1 so are definitely something to consider as well. Leveraged ETFs, which are quite similar, might also be a good choice.
1) Buy an underlying asset that is highly volatile and will produce 100x return with non-negligible probability
2) Buy a derivative security that will produce 100x return with non-negligible probability
Quite a few things in category 1 have been mentioned and I don't have much to add. For 2, I've mostly only seen options mentioned. Futures can provide leverage of 20:1 so are definitely something to consider as well. Leveraged ETFs, which are quite similar, might also be a good choice.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
What about searching out Biotech companies that have a product that has reached phase II?
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Energy - Natural gas or oil explorers. (Or RIG). They all have heavy financial leverage.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Age : 40
DI2K (Double income 2 kids)
Recently crossed 2M NW.
Careers recently went into high earning mode and now close to 1M annual household income.
Softbank.
The above have 10x potential.
100x potential in small, early stage pharma. (Don't know anything about the science) but drug research has built in optionality.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Options, VC, private equity, angel investor, penny stocks, casino.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
SPCE, that is Virgin Galactic. Possibility of 100X price move, also possibility of real moonshot. I think that the real moonshot is more likely than 100X price gain.
Ralph
Ralph
Last edited by ralph124cf on Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Last edited by novemberrain on Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
You are trying to turn $40k into $4M over 10 years by gambling. If you have $1M of household income and a $2M net worth at age 40, I think you should first focus on getting your spending under control. That alone will help you increase your net worth by over $4M over the next ten years.novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Age : 40
DI2K (Double income 2 kids)
Recently crossed 2M NW.
Careers recently went into high earning mode and now close to 1M annual household income.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Last edited by novemberrain on Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Tehran stock exchange or Venezuela stock exchange maybe. I’m not sure what inflation is like but that’d be my best bet for 100x increase in an index.
- TechGuy365
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Get in on Palantir before IPO.
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
I'd make you a cash wager that the QQQ will be beat by small-value over the next decade, but I already put all my free into that trade.123 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 am While a 100x moonshot is doubtful with an index the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) might be the most hopeful. While the NYSE has been more competitive for new listings lately over the last 20+ years many of the innovative companies have started out with the listing on the Nasdaq, and many have stayed there. The QQQ might capture some winners. Some might argue that a sector fund might be appropriate, but the moonshot could come from a sector that is unknown as of today.
OP I would consider buying a basket of net-net micro-cap stocks if you can find any. Buying 10 of them may give you a shot at capturing a couple big ones, but 100x is all luck.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Yep, this is what I invest my play money in. I've seen some rocket 100x before. It's very difficult to find a winner, there are many to choose from and most will not ever advance to Phase II or beyond....but we're talking about lottery tickets here.BestCoast123 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:51 pm 100x potential in small, early stage pharma. (Don't know anything about the science) but drug research has built in optionality.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
How to do that ? Appreciate any pointers. Thanks.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Sure, because more people doing it would make it a 1000X moonshot - that's what all the investment porn - excuse me, news - is aboutmidareff wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:05 amIf we knew would we tell?novemberrain wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 am I have a very bogleheadian portfolio. Mostly VTSAX (or FSKAX) and recently venturing into the other 2 legs of the 3 fund portfolio. However, I do have a "play money" account which is at present about 4% of my investible assets (and 2% of NW).
I have had some success with this play money. But nothing spectacular.
Question : If I am willing to lose this entire play money, but hoping for a lottery ticket of sorts that will net me a 100x return over the next decade, what are your suggestions ?
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.
- TechGuy365
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Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
I wish I know! When I worked for a pre-IPO company we had friends-and-family shares. You can go onto LinkedIn to see who you know works there (https://www.linkedin.com/company/palantir-technologies/). They have about 2,500 employees.
Last edited by TechGuy365 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
"1M annual household income."
for real ?
...I think you should play on single stocks...have fun
for real ?
...I think you should play on single stocks...have fun
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.