U.S. stocks continue to soar!

[rockstar]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

[Third Son]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

How does it get cheaper? Please explain.

[rockstar]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

How does it get cheaper? Please explain.

No clue. I don't call tops.

[grettman]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

Why do you think it is ridiculously expensive?

[Steve Reading]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive.

What makes u say that?

[Ed 2]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

1999- The market is getting ridiculously expensive 2016-The market is getting ridiculously expensive. 2019-The market is getting ridiculously expensive. 2020-The market is getting ridiculously expensive.

[rockstar]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

Why do you think it is ridiculously expensive?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC

[whodidntante]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

Why do you think it is ridiculously expensive?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC

This model fails to account for yield destruction due to central bank intervention and unfavorable demographic trends, which is a polite way to say there are more old, less productive people. Have you meet my good friend TINA?

[AnalogKid22]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

If you're comfortable with your AA, it shouldn't matter. You should only be concerned if your risk exposure is outside your comfort zone. Why not take a little off the table?

[willthrill81]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

If you're comfortable with your AA, it shouldn't matter. You should only be concerned if your risk exposure is outside your comfort zone. Why not take a little off the table?

Those thinking that stocks are a little too frothy might want to rebalance, assuming that they aren't 100% stocks.

[rockstar]

The market is getting ridiculously expensive. But what's the alternative?

Why do you think it is ridiculously expensive?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC

This model fails to account for yield destruction due to central bank intervention and unfavorable demographic trends, which is a polite way to say there are more old, less productive people. Have you meet my good friend TINA?

I sold my TQQQ holding in after hours because it crossed my 10% gain threshold. I'm not selling anything else. Like you say, TINA.

[lostdog]

Possibly another up day.

[A_Bond]

Possibly another up day.

Since my predictions are usually wrong... I predict we WON'T hit a record high today.

[Stinky]

Waking this thread up.

Rise and shine! Futures are pointing to a positive open.

New record highs lie ahead!

[atdharris]

Today may be the day, boys!

[jason2459]

SP500 easily hits intraday high. Now it just needs to be a closer.

[pokebowl]

While a Tesla dealership on Mars is still some ways off in the future, its stock price however has been riding a rocket to the moon lately.

[jason2459]

While a Tesla dealership on Mars is still some ways off in the future, its stock price however has been riding a rocket to the moon lately.

I honestly think SpaceX has helped, priced in?, Tesla's pricing. The success Elon has had with Tesla is cool and the battery tech is probably the strongest part of it but SpaceX's success has been astronomical. (Literally)

[Hyperchicken]

New intraday ATH at 3395!

[A_Bond]

New intraday ATH at 3395!

Looks like it is struggling to hit that mark again, it is back down to being flat. NASDAQ still up.

[EnjoyIt]

New intraday ATH at 3395!

Does that mean we are in a bull market now or does it have to close at an all time high?

[TheTimeLord]

It's a slap in the face to domestic when underdog-international outperforms it. At the moment international is even outperforming the golden boy Nasdaq.

The key phrase in that sentence is 'at the moment'. Over the last 3 months, global stock and U.S. stock have had virtually identical returns. YTD, U.S. stock is still ahead by more than 4%.

Ex-U.S. stock will certainly outperform U.S. again in the future. But nobody knows when, nor for how long, nor by how much.

There you go again with the big picture! This thread is the myopic experience, bro! You gotta roll with that shirt. Just a truckload of whimsical fun here.

Then I should stop posting my actual moves and thoughts and assume everyone is just making things up?

Some background to my answer. I find this thread hopelessly silly. In my very strong opinion, when it comes to stocks we should only care about two prices: the price you buy and the price you sell. Everything inbetween is just noise. This thread is all about joyously basking in the noise. It's fun, it passes the time between meals, and why not? It's all good. I wouldn't go so far as say people are making stuff up here, but who knows, it's all anonymous. Let's just enjoy the pure whimsical delight of this thread, like a thousand banana creme pies thrown into the air while we dance underneath. And we're cha-cha!

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

[Robot Monster]

The key phrase in that sentence is 'at the moment'. Over the last 3 months, global stock and U.S. stock have had virtually identical returns. YTD, U.S. stock is still ahead by more than 4%.

Ex-U.S. stock will certainly outperform U.S. again in the future. But nobody knows when, nor for how long, nor by how much.

There you go again with the big picture! This thread is the myopic experience, bro! You gotta roll with that shirt. Just a truckload of whimsical fun here.

Then I should stop posting my actual moves and thoughts and assume everyone is just making things up?

Some background to my answer. I find this thread hopelessly silly. In my very strong opinion, when it comes to stocks we should only care about two prices: the price you buy and the price you sell. Everything inbetween is just noise. This thread is all about joyously basking in the noise. It's fun, it passes the time between meals, and why not? It's all good. I wouldn't go so far as say people are making stuff up here, but who knows, it's all anonymous. Let's just enjoy the pure whimsical delight of this thread, like a thousand banana creme pies thrown into the air while we dance underneath. And we're cha-cha!

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I don't understand that. I don't understand what you mean.

This is how I think of it. Let's say I buy a thousand shares of VOO today $310.92 with the plan to sell them in forty years. Why should I care about the daily price in the intervening years? What does the daily price tell me? Well, of course it tells me the price I could sell the shares at; since I'm not selling, how is that relevant or actionable to me? I don't eye the price I could sell my house at on a daily basis. It would be weird if I did.

I think why people like to look at stock prices is they get a little thrill when the price goes up. At worst, it's faintly reminiscent of Scrooge McDuck rolling in his money. At best, it's harmless, though pointless and non-actionable.

[CurlyDave]

...This is how I think of it. Let's say I buy a thousand shares of VOO today $310.92 with the plan to sell them in forty years. Why should I care about the daily price in the intervening years? What does the daily price tell me? Well, of course it tells me the price I could sell the shares at; since I'm not selling, how is that relevant or actionable to me? I don't eye the price I could sell my house at on a daily basis. It would be weird if I did.

I think why people like to look at stock prices is they get a little thrill when the price goes up. At worst, it's faintly reminiscent of Scrooge McDuck rolling in his money. At best, it's harmless, though pointless and non-actionable.

If the bolded parts are really true, why does Warren Buffet report the value of Berkshire's stock holdings every quarter?

[HomerJ]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

You know which accounts have the best long-term returns? The forgotten accounts whose owners are DEAD.

Not doing anything is usually the best move.

You've become way too active regarding investment in your retirement. I guess it's your new hobby now that you're no longer working one-more-year.

(Congrats by the way!)

[HomerJ]

...This is how I think of it. Let's say I buy a thousand shares of VOO today $310.92 with the plan to sell them in forty years. Why should I care about the daily price in the intervening years? What does the daily price tell me? Well, of course it tells me the price I could sell the shares at; since I'm not selling, how is that relevant or actionable to me? I don't eye the price I could sell my house at on a daily basis. It would be weird if I did.

I think why people like to look at stock prices is they get a little thrill when the price goes up. At worst, it's faintly reminiscent of Scrooge McDuck rolling in his money. At best, it's harmless, though pointless and non-actionable.

If the bolded parts are really true, why does Warren Buffet report the value of Berkshire's stock holdings every quarter?

Umm.. required to by law, I'd imagine?

[H-Town]

...This is how I think of it. Let's say I buy a thousand shares of VOO today $310.92 with the plan to sell them in forty years. Why should I care about the daily price in the intervening years? What does the daily price tell me? Well, of course it tells me the price I could sell the shares at; since I'm not selling, how is that relevant or actionable to me? I don't eye the price I could sell my house at on a daily basis. It would be weird if I did.

I think why people like to look at stock prices is they get a little thrill when the price goes up. At worst, it's faintly reminiscent of Scrooge McDuck rolling in his money. At best, it's harmless, though pointless and non-actionable.

If the bolded parts are really true, why does Warren Buffet report the value of Berkshire's stock holdings every quarter?

SEC requirement, I suppose. If Berkshire isn't a publicly traded company, it would not be required to disclose this information.

[H-Town]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I'm really curious on what you meant by this. Can you please elaborate?

[CurlyDave]

...This is how I think of it. Let's say I buy a thousand shares of VOO today $310.92 with the plan to sell them in forty years. Why should I care about the daily price in the intervening years? What does the daily price tell me? Well, of course it tells me the price I could sell the shares at; since I'm not selling, how is that relevant or actionable to me? I don't eye the price I could sell my house at on a daily basis. It would be weird if I did.

I think why people like to look at stock prices is they get a little thrill when the price goes up. At worst, it's faintly reminiscent of Scrooge McDuck rolling in his money. At best, it's harmless, though pointless and non-actionable.

If the bolded parts are really true, why does Warren Buffet report the value of Berkshire's stock holdings every quarter?

SEC requirement, I suppose. If Berkshire isn't a publicly traded company, it would not be required to disclose this information.

OK then -- why does the SEC think this is a good idea?

And does anyone really think that the people who invest large endowments, take Harvard for example, don't make quarterly reports on their performance? They might report more often than that.

If it is good enough for Warren and Harvard, it is good enough for me.

[TheTimeLord]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I'm really curious on what you meant by this. Can you please elaborate?

The difference between a focus on result vs. a focus on process. When individuals do this I believe there is a tendency to make 2 possible mistakes. One, holding onto something until it shows a gain to sell because you keep looking at the purchase price thus losing the opportunity to move to something else. Two, selling too early because you have a gain and forfeiting the possibility of larger gains because you are focused on your investments showing a gain. Investing to me is a capital allocation exercise, trying to put your money where you think it will perform to your expectations within your risk tolerance. The price you bought something at is history and to me irrelevant, except with regards to taxes, the price it is currently quoted is its value. Not selling is more or less the same a buying at the current price. For a buy and hold investor, they don't rebalance when their shares are $X over the purchase price, they rebalance when the percentages (the process) dictates, irregardless of the original cost of the shares. For an active investor, they might have a conviction their capital will perform better somewhere else than where it is and it would be silly to say I am going to wait to move my investment until I show a profit while the other investment grows at a faster rate. Hopefully this makes some sense.

[Robot Monster]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I'm really curious on what you meant by this. Can you please elaborate?

The difference between a focus on result vs. a focus on process. When individuals do this I believe there is a tendency to make 2 possible mistakes. One, holding onto something until it shows a gain to sell because you keep looking at the purchase price thus losing the opportunity to move to something else. Two, selling too early because you have a gain and forfeiting the possibility of larger gains because you are focused on your investments showing a gain. Investing to me is a capital allocation exercise, trying to put your money where you think it will perform to your expectations within your risk tolerance. The price you bought something at is history and to me irrelevant, except with regards to taxes, the price it is currently quoted is its value. Not selling is more or less the same a buying at the current price. For a buy and hold investor, they don't rebalance when their shares are $X over the purchase price, they rebalance when the percentages (the process) dictates, irregardless of the original cost of the shares. For an active investor, they might have a conviction their capital will perform better somewhere else than where it is and it would be silly to say I am going to wait to move my investment until I show a profit while the other investment grows at a faster rate. Hopefully this makes some sense.

Yes, it makes perfect sense.

[nigel_ht]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I'm really curious on what you meant by this. Can you please elaborate?

The difference between a focus on result vs. a focus on process. When individuals do this I believe there is a tendency to make 2 possible mistakes. One, holding onto something until it shows a gain to sell because you keep looking at the purchase price thus losing the opportunity to move to something else.

Er...how does that apply to index investing? I guess I could tilt more or less based on purchase price...

[hnd]

S&P just hit its year to date high.

[TheTimeLord]

From a tax perspective in a taxable account I guess they can matter, but IMHO looking at your positions in that way is likely to decrease your gains over time.

I'm really curious on what you meant by this. Can you please elaborate?

The difference between a focus on result vs. a focus on process. When individuals do this I believe there is a tendency to make 2 possible mistakes. One, holding onto something until it shows a gain to sell because you keep looking at the purchase price thus losing the opportunity to move to something else.

Er...how does that apply to index investing? I guess I could tilt more or less based on purchase price...

I think you are asking the question of how it applies to someone investing in index products with a prescribed AA as opposed simply an index investor who does not necessarily rebalance. The answer is they focus on process of rebalancing using their methodology without regard to the purchase price of the index products in their portfolio as opposed to say selling the Total Market fund because it is up 10% (which is just the difference between purchase price and current valuation). Point is you work with current valuation without regard to purchase price. Maybe that helped maybe it is rubbish.

[JoMoney]

dow just hit its year to date high.

12-Feb-2020 had a intra-day DOW @ 29,568.57... we're still a ways off from a new all-time high on the DOW.. S&P 500 appears to have just notched it's all-time high though.

[TheTimeLord]

dow just hit its year to date high.

12-Feb-2020 had a intra-day DOW @ 29,568.57... we're still a ways off from a new all-time high

Pretty sure he meant S&P.

[hnd]

Sorry meant S&P total brainfart

[Triple digit golfer]

This raises a good point. What is driving the S&P back to record levels but the DJIA is still down 5-6% from six months ago? Amazon?

[atdharris]

This raises a good point. What is driving the S&P back to record levels but the DJIA is still down 5-6% from six months ago? Amazon?

Mega-cap tech stocks. They are driving most of the gains for the S&P 500.

[CurlyDave]

I will predict a melt-up for today.

S&P 3195 or better.

[jason2459]

Small cap has been trying it's hardest to bring down the total us market index all day. But the SP500 and Nasdaq have other plans of another ATH! Hoping for a side ways or melt up end to the day.

[jason2459]

This raises a good point. What is driving the S&P back to record levels but the DJIA is still down 5-6% from six months ago? Amazon?

Mega-cap tech stocks. They are driving most of the gains for the S&P 500.

Yep, Netflix is having a soaring day today.

[texasfight]

Not just mega cap tech.

Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK. Long duration/convexity of cash flows.

Multiple expansion due to lower real yields.

I expect Nasdaq 100 to trade over a 100x P/E multiple over the next decade.

Basically if a stock/bond portfolio doesn't go up and to the right for new highs every few months, entire system collapses. That is the new paradigm. And is why I hold essentially zero cash. Risk free rate cannot be allowed to rise unless growth significantly improves in which case value stocks will do very well.

[hnd]

the DJ i believe doesn't have amazon, google, facebook in it and Also has larger allocations to stocks like Boeing and Exxon

[jason2459]

the DJ i believe doesn't have amazon, google, facebook in it and Also has larger allocations to stocks like Boeing and Exxon

Apple was it's largest.... After the split it won't be. Such a crazy index being price weighted. But it's top 10 holdings compromise less percentage wise then the top 10 in SP500 and Nasdaq. DIA could be a safer ETF to hold then VOO or QQQ

[Kookaburra]

S&P poised to close at all-time high. Let’s see what the last 5 minutes hold.

[jason2459]

And lol at any company that wants to boost their share price all they have to do is announce they are interested in buying Tik Tok.

[Stinky]

I will predict a melt-up for today.

S&P 3195 or better.

You were a day early on your call.

Tomorrow. For sure.

[willthrill81]

Not just mega cap tech.

Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK.

Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD!

[Stef]

New ATH closing for the SP500, this must be historic.