Won the game

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LarryCarell
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Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

What does winning the game means precisely?
wackerdr
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Re: Won the game

Post by wackerdr »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
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Stinky
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Re: Won the game

Post by Stinky »

wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses

Basically you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is a good definition if you’re in your 60s. (Maybe shade more toward 30x instead of 25x)

But you’ll want to have more laid aside if you’re in, for example, your 30s. Because you may be looking at a 50+ year “retirement”.
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dcabler
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Re: Won the game

Post by dcabler »

Stinky wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:58 am
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses

Basically you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is a good definition if you’re in your 60s. (Maybe shade more toward 30x instead of 25x)

But you’ll want to have more laid aside if you’re in, for example, your 30s. Because you may be looking at a 50+ year “retirement”.
Many choose to do the 25-30x annual expenses to include not just your investments, but SS as well, perhaps with a haircut at some point in the future. Others try to be more conservative and simply ignore it.
runner3081
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Re: Won the game

Post by runner3081 »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Depends on where I am at in life. Right now, it would be 6-8 million.
dbr
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Re: Won the game

Post by dbr »

The expression was/is used by Bill Bernstein to mean that you have enough money that you don't need to invest very much in stocks in hopes of increasing your wealth even more. I prefer to say that it isn't a game and you can't quit, but it is a fair comment that taking unnecessary risk is unnecessary.

Here is the Boglehead Philosophy on never take too much or too little risk: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... ittle_risk

Also if you want the meaning to be precise, that is not going to happen.
randomguy
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Re: Won the game

Post by randomguy »

You won the game when you are dead and all your financial obligations have been completed. Up until then you are winning the game but it is still possible to lose to unexpected events.
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Re: Won the game

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Enough money via investments/cash or guaranteed sources of payments to you (ie. Pension, annuity, lottery winnings) to support your standard of living as you expect/want it to be. This includes enough to pay all taxes and expenses (rent, mortgage, insurance, living expenses, extracurricular if you want it).
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deltaneutral83
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Re: Won the game

Post by deltaneutral83 »

Probably paid down debt and expenses saved of 50x/40x/35x/30x for ages <50/60/65/70 in a cumulatively balanced 60/40 allocation. 12 mo cash. Just a starting point.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: Won the game

Post by CyclingDuo »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Many of us have Bill Bernstein's thoughts on the oft paraphrased "once you've won the game, stop playing" in our minds. So when you bring it up - that's the first thing that pops into our heads.

You can hear him say it on a Podcast...

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w ... 0437002756

You can read when he says it in one of his books...

“In other words, once the game has been won by accumulating enough safe assets to retire on, it makes little sense to keep playing it, at least with the “number”: the pile of safe assets sufficient to directly provide or indirectly purchase an adequate lifetime income stream.”

Bernstein, William J (2012-06-18). The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Life-cycle Investing (Investing for Adults)


That basic premise gets drilled down in many of his interviews that he has done over the years to having 12 years of expenses from your risk portfolio set aside in safe assets, and the other 12 years of expenses will be derived from Social Security, that in combination with the safe assets you have set aside, will be your total. The rest of your portfolio you are more or less managing for your heirs or charity.

Or, you can read Bernstein's excellent primer "If You Can" where he says...

The name of the game is to accumulate around 12 years of living expenses, which, combined with Social Security, should provide for a reasonable retirement. How did I arrive at 12 years of living expenses? The average person needs to accumulate about twenty-five years of living expenses, and I'm assuming you'll be getting about half of that from Social Security.

https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf?_ ... pYh4Gzm4Kh

CycingDuo
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goodenyou
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Re: Won the game

Post by goodenyou »

It simply means to reduce risk after meeting your financial goals. The "game" was to construct a portfolio with a risk-reward profile that has the goal of getting to a personal financial endpoint. Stopping it means that there is less utility in the (higher) risk-on position.

Am I missing something more in this description of what I think Bernstein meant when he said it?
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dbr
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Re: Won the game

Post by dbr »

goodenyou wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:49 am It simply means to reduce risk after meeting your financial goals. The "game" was to construct a portfolio with a risk-reward profile that has the goal of getting to a personal financial endpoint. Stopping it means that there is less utility in the (higher) risk-on position.

Am I missing something more in this description of what I think Bernstein meant when he said it?
No, I think that is a very good statement of what was intended.

As I recall the context of the statement was a rather "frantic" warning to people that when you "have enough" you should not be taking much risk holding a lot in stocks. I think your way of saying it is a little less histrionic than the tone of what he wrote.
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Toons
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Re: Won the game

Post by Toons »

wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.

Perfectly Explained
:happy
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Elysium
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Re: Won the game

Post by Elysium »

You win the game when you figure out you have enough and you accept that there will always be uncertainties and unexpected events in life you cannot control. You win despite not being able to have full control, because you have figured out what is enough.
Last edited by Elysium on Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sandtrap
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Re: Won the game

Post by Sandtrap »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Financially: There are no concerns for Finance, Income, Employment, Retirement Funding, Health need funding, Residence, Etc.
Health: Health, Fitness, Vitality, Mobility, Least health related lifestyle compromises with age.
Mental: Dependable Mentation, Motivation, "Zest", open and eager to learn and change one's mind and opinions (not a given with age)
Emotion: Etc.
Personal Ethos: Etc.

Grasping that the "game" can never be left or put aside, and it can never be "won".
j :happy
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shess
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Re: Won the game

Post by shess »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
There are two games people get tangled together. One game is optimizing for the maximal return possible. The other game is optimizing for the return needed. When you're young, these are similar, you need to take investment risks to get sufficient growth over the next 40 years to fund retirement. But as you get older, the games generally diverge. If you get to 55 and you only have $100k in assets, you're still going to have to take risks because you simply don't have enough to retire on. If you get to 55 and you have $2M in assets, you don't have to be as risky to meet your targets, so you can have more bonds and fewer equities.

If you get to 55 and you have $10M in assets - have you won? Probably. You could probably park that in a bond fund and never run out (assuming you don't take this as a challenge). If you have $10M at 55 and you end up running out of cash in retirement, it's PROBABLY because you made poor decisions about investing or spending those funds, not because the market did something wrong. In other words, it's all unforced errors on your part at that point.

Things flip again, though, if you have $100M at 55, then you can peel off $10M to fund retirement and take some risks with the rest.

So, basically, "winning the game" means you got to a point where you have the option to retire using only very safe vehicles because the extra returns risky vehicles may give you aren't necessary. IMHO, it's not a crisp boundary, because there's a lot of uncertainty.
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LarryCarell
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Re: Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Thanks! Interesting, and for example if you do not have health insurance, how much you assume to set aside for health related problems.
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LarryCarell
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Re: Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

Stinky wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:58 am
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses

Basically you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is a good definition if you’re in your 60s. (Maybe shade more toward 30x instead of 25x)

But you’ll want to have more laid aside if you’re in, for example, your 30s. Because you may be looking at a 50+ year “retirement”.
makes perfect sense, thanks
Topic Author
LarryCarell
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Re: Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

CyclingDuo wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:32 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Many of us have Bill Bernstein's thoughts on the oft paraphrased "once you've won the game, stop playing" in our minds. So when you bring it up - that's the first thing that pops into our heads.

You can hear him say it on a Podcast...

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w ... 0437002756

You can read when he says it in one of his books...

“In other words, once the game has been won by accumulating enough safe assets to retire on, it makes little sense to keep playing it, at least with the “number”: the pile of safe assets sufficient to directly provide or indirectly purchase an adequate lifetime income stream.”

Bernstein, William J (2012-06-18). The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Life-cycle Investing (Investing for Adults)


That basic premise gets drilled down in many of his interviews that he has done over the years to having 12 years of expenses from your risk portfolio set aside in safe assets, and the other 12 years of expenses will be derived from Social Security, that in combination with the safe assets you have set aside, will be your total. The rest of your portfolio you are more or less managing for your heirs or charity.

Or, you can read Bernstein's excellent primer "If You Can" where he says...

The name of the game is to accumulate around 12 years of living expenses, which, combined with Social Security, should provide for a reasonable retirement. How did I arrive at 12 years of living expenses? The average person needs to accumulate about twenty-five years of living expenses, and I'm assuming you'll be getting about half of that from Social Security.

https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf?_ ... pYh4Gzm4Kh

CycingDuo
Thanks a lot, i think it answers the question precisely. And big thanks for podcast link, ive been listening to morning star podcast and Rick Ferry s podcast and find them great and really usefull. Any other podcasts you could recommend?
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HomerJ
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Re: Won the game

Post by HomerJ »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
"When you've won the game, stop playing".

The idea is, once you have enough, you don't need to gamble any more.

It's basically saying, "Why are you still in 80%-100% stocks, risking a crash, if you already have enough money to live on until you die?"

Because there is no rule that says the market has to bounce back right away or even ever. Even though the stock market is a very good long-term gamble, it's still not 100% guaranteed. It's still a gamble.

But, of course, it's hard to tell when you have "enough" to live on until you die.

So it's hard to tell when you've "won the game".

25x expenses for a typical retiree (60+) is a good rule of thumb, but expenses can change. One can have a good estimate for retirement expenses, but no one can calculate exactly what they will need.

Life is messy.

But yeah, if you think you'll need around $2 million to retire, and you hit $2 million (or even $1.5 million), probably good idea to dial back the risk a bit.

Go 50/50 stocks/bonds or 30/70... You've "won the game", so stop risking all your money to make more. You don't need more.
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
Topic Author
LarryCarell
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Re: Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

goodenyou wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:49 am It simply means to reduce risk after meeting your financial goals. The "game" was to construct a portfolio with a risk-reward profile that has the goal of getting to a personal financial endpoint. Stopping it means that there is less utility in the (higher) risk-on position.

Am I missing something more in this description of what I think Bernstein meant when he said it?
Thanks for the answer! I am glad that Ive asked that question, because I never thought of relocating to safer investments after wining the game.
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HomerJ
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Re: Won the game

Post by HomerJ »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:17 pm
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Thanks! Interesting, and for example if you do not have health insurance, how much you assume to set aside for health related problems.
If you don't have health insurance, get health insurance. Check ACA website to see how much plans cost, and put that in your budget... Once you get to 65, you get Medicare (but there are still costs for that, look them up)

Estimating expenses is an estimate.

Add in some buffers,

If you think you'll need around $5000/month, shoot for $6000/month instead to give yourself some wiggle room in case of unexpected expenses.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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LarryCarell
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Re: Won the game

Post by LarryCarell »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:34 pm
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:17 pm
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Thanks! Interesting, and for example if you do not have health insurance, how much you assume to set aside for health related problems.
If you don't have health insurance, get health insurance. Check ACA website to see how much plans cost, and put that in your budget... Once you get to 65, you get Medicare (but there are still costs for that, look them up)

Estimating expenses is an estimate.

Add in some buffers,

If you think you'll need around $5000/month, shoot for $6000/month instead to give yourself some wiggle room in case of unexpected expenses.
thanks, but i do not have access to US health insurance.
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HomerJ
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Re: Won the game

Post by HomerJ »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:37 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:34 pm
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:17 pm
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Thanks! Interesting, and for example if you do not have health insurance, how much you assume to set aside for health related problems.
If you don't have health insurance, get health insurance. Check ACA website to see how much plans cost, and put that in your budget... Once you get to 65, you get Medicare (but there are still costs for that, look them up)

Estimating expenses is an estimate.

Add in some buffers,

If you think you'll need around $5000/month, shoot for $6000/month instead to give yourself some wiggle room in case of unexpected expenses.
thanks, but i do not have access to US health insurance.
Well, I don't know the costs in your country....

But some cancer drugs without insurance can cost $100,000 a year, and a heart transplant costs $1 million without insurance, so you do the math.

I guess you can always just take the risk, and accept death if you get unlucky.

I'd probably want an extra $500,000 or $1 million set aside if I had no health insurance. The dividends would easily cover standard health care costs, and I'd have the lump sum there if I needed it.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
wackerdr
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Re: Won the game

Post by wackerdr »

LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:17 pm
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Thanks! Interesting, and for example if you do not have health insurance, how much you assume to set aside for health related problems.
“Do not have “ meaning? - do not have access to? Or cannot afford to purchase?

If you Cannot afford , then that game is not won yet.
If you don’t have access, then depends on the going rates for major surgical procedures and hospital stay. For example, I am familiar with India health care a bit, about $150k would probably a good ball park over there. US is not relevant to estimate because there is access. I can’t think of a scenario for US where self funded healthcare makes financial sense
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Brianmcg321
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Re: Won the game

Post by Brianmcg321 »

You hit your number and don't need any more growth in your portfolio other than to outpace inflation. You can live your same life forever given a very conservative return.
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wackerdr
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Re: Won the game

Post by wackerdr »

Toons wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:56 am
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.

Perfectly Explained
:happy
Thank you 🙏
anoop
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Re: Won the game

Post by anoop »

Stinky wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:58 am
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses

Basically you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is a good definition if you’re in your 60s. (Maybe shade more toward 30x instead of 25x)

But you’ll want to have more laid aside if you’re in, for example, your 30s. Because you may be looking at a 50+ year “retirement”.
How about a formula like (90 - age) ? That way, if you get to 90, it means you won even if you are broke. :D
runner3081
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Re: Won the game

Post by runner3081 »

Some could say that you won the game being born in a 1st world country.
Mofire
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Re: Won the game

Post by Mofire »

Winning the game == financial independence
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Re: Won the game

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

I think the 12 years of expenses set aside in "safe assets" is a bit light to stop playing the game.

The only reason we are at 50/50 is for legacy reasons. But we would NOT be at 50/50 if we only had 12 years of expenses in "safe assets."

But, that is just me.

Broken Man 1999
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Normchad
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Re: Won the game

Post by Normchad »

runner3081 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:05 pm Some could say that you won the game being born in a 1st world country.
True. I was born in a first world company, and raised in a loving and supportive family. I received a high quality public education. Luckily, I have a knack and a passion for something that pays very well.

I like to say “don’t go around thinking you hit a home run when you were born on 3rd base”. I was definitely born on 3rd base.
Doctor Rhythm
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Re: Won the game

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

I'll offer (with no justification): You've won the game when your need to take risk is zero.
JBTX
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Re: Won the game

Post by JBTX »

wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
Splitting hairs but I don't think you have to pay off the mortgage, or have separate bucketed "funds" for those particular items.
surfstar
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Re: Won the game

Post by surfstar »

Too many of these definitions sound like you played (aka worked) for too long ;)
EdNorton
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Re: Won the game

Post by EdNorton »

Normchad wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:50 pm
runner3081 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:05 pm Some could say that you won the game being born in a 1st world country.
True. I was born in a first world company, and raised in a loving and supportive family. I received a high quality public education. Luckily, I have a knack and a passion for something that pays very well.

I like to say “don’t go around thinking you hit a home run when you were born on 3rd base”. I was definitely born on 3rd base.
Great post, Norman Chad! Here's to ya. :sharebeer
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dbr
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Re: Won the game

Post by dbr »

Doctor Rhythm wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:46 pm I'll offer (with no justification): You've won the game when your need to take risk is zero.
Actually that is very astute. The original idea was that if you have won the game you don't need to take any risk. But nobody knows what winning the game means, so let's just turn the definition on its head. I like it. :sharebeer
Gatto Bialetti
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What does "Winning the Game" mean to you?

Post by Gatto Bialetti »

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

We see in posts here, not infrequently, that someone is said to have won the game.

I guess it's a variation on the older theme of "what's your number", but what would it mean to you to win the game, or to be told by another member here that you've won?
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Re: What does "Winning the Game" mean to you?

Post by GerryL »

Winning the Game: Living the life I choose to live, there is very little (if any) chance I will run out of money.
This encompasses not just day-to-day spending, but also infrequent large expenses (e.g., car, new roof) and unexpected major expenses that can be somewhat mitigated by insurance.
That, for what it's worth, is my definition.
runner3081
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Re: What does "Winning the Game" mean to you?

Post by runner3081 »

Someone just started this exact post last week.

Winning the game - Long lives and good health for me and my family.

Anything else... who really cares?

If you as monetary? 10 million invest-able.
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LadyGeek
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Re: Won the game

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged Gatto Bialetti's thread into the on-going discussion (the one started last week). The combined thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general discussion).

Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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000
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Re: Won the game

Post by 000 »

Winning the game is a term people use to mean they believe they no longer need to take the risk of investing in equities.

It is actually a false concept as there is risk in all investments and there is no amount of money that reduces all risks to zero.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Won the game

Post by firebirdparts »

wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is setting the bar too low. 25X expenses gives you a reasonable chance for comfortable survival if you remain invested in equities. Wrong target. The idea of "winning the game" was that you didn't need to take any risk any more.
A fool and your money are soon partners
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Re: Won the game

Post by wackerdr »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:58 pm
wackerdr wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
LarryCarell wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:49 am What does winning the game means precisely?
Objectively:
You have paid off house
You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs..
Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums
Long term care insurance
25 - 30x annual expenses


The amount varies for every individual, but you are covered for rest of your life, maintaining the lifestyle you want , without having the need to work.
This is setting the bar too low. 25X expenses gives you a reasonable chance for comfortable survival if you remain invested in equities. Wrong target. The idea of "winning the game" was that you didn't need to take any risk any more.
No risk is fallacy. Invest nothing, you will lose to inflation. Invest in something, there is always a risk of capital loss. 25X-30X is assuming that one retires at around 60 and lives to 85 - 90. If someone is retiring in 40s, it should be much higher, and the SWR should be 3% or less rather than 4%. If someone wants to leave inheritance, their needs vary. I personally plan for reasonable scenarios and not extreme ones. The 0.5% withdrawal in the other thread is an example for extreme in my opinion, and the corpus will be so large that it eliminates virtually all risk. But if it takes working until 70, then it is a decision to make.
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Re: Won the game

Post by dbr »

It is sometimes forgotten or not pointed out that a 30 year 4% withdrawal rate has not been safe without about 30% or more in stocks. In FireCalc 100% bonds has an SWR of less than 3%. Some people argue that right now things are not even that good. What context that places having 25x in bonds, I am not sure. As for a plan, a ladder of 30 year TIPS at a current real yield of -.5% generates a withdrawal rate of only 3.1%
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Re: Won the game

Post by Van »

randomguy wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:24 am You won the game when you are dead and all your financial obligations have been completed. Up until then you are winning the game but it is still possible to lose to unexpected events.
Wow. Winning is so important to me I'm going to inject some curare this evening.
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Third Son
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Re: Won the game

Post by Third Son »

Like George Costanza, I got out on a high note.
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Re: Won the game

Post by Oregano »

randomguy wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:24 am You won the game when you are dead and all your financial obligations have been completed. Up until then you are winning the game but it is still possible to lose to unexpected events.
This is the reality. This idea of "winning the game" is for most people extremely dependent on a stable economic future. But most people on this site will say they have won the game, but have 100% of assets in stocks and bonds (no gold, for example). There are historical examples and potential future ones where you end up losing that game.
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Re: Won the game

Post by Candor »

I should have won the game by now and by some accounts I have but a nefarious force keeps moving the goalposts on me. I'm beginning to think it is all in my head. :D
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