Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

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core4portfolio
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by core4portfolio » Wed May 20, 2020 11:09 am

If US government replaces dollar with their own Crypto then i would buy as compelling reason.
Other than that, its a bet to play and not really compelling one
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amp
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by amp » Wed May 20, 2020 2:41 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:01 am
softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm
I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.
This is just how it became unstable, as I'm sure you already know. It's become a speculative collectible, and that has ruined the possibility that it will ever be currency.

When people say "People who think this can be currency are stupid" the true believers will say "yeah, but me and some other guys all got rich trading it with each other."

Well, guess what.
I see a lot of similarity between the current state of Bitcoin and the Iraqi Dinar scam.

In both cases, those who are buying have no interest in actually transacting in that currency (despite what they may say). They only want to hold it because they believe it will rise to an astronomical value and they will become rich.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Wed May 20, 2020 3:15 pm

am wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:43 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:39 pm
am wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:35 pm
I’ve been also speculating with <3% of assets making a killing on biotechs involved in covid response like Moderna, Inovio, Sorrento etc. Some crypto, bitcoin. Bought some beaten down energy and biotech etfs also killing it.
Have you, in fact, actually realized your gains?
The dollar amount is too small to matter and not worth realizing, if it was majority of my assets then I would stop playing the game with most of the money and try to be conservative.
If it’s too small to matter then it means nothing.
Last edited by SteadyOne on Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm

ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
“Every de­duc­tion is al­lowed as a mat­ter of leg­isla­tive grace.” US Federal Court

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm
happyisland wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 6:11 pm
typical.investor wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 4:20 pm
Second, use in Venezeuala has skyrocketed yes, but transaction amounts are very low.
Do you have a source for this? I live very close to Venezuela, and interact with Venezuelan immigrants on a daily basis, and I have never, ever heard of anyone using bitcoin.

(I totally agree with the gist of your post by the way, but I was curious if there is some uptick in bitcoin adoption here that I am not witnessing)
I didn't realize the industry was so massive before joining it. It's much bigger than people realize.

Xapo, an exchange focused on Latin America, has 1.5 million accounts.

Coinbase, the largest US Crypto Exchange, has more customers than ETrade.

Binance is less than 3 years old and has 14 million users.

Daily trading in Crypto now exceeds the value of the US Stock market, we think.

Total worldwide, we think 150 million accounts and growing rapidly.

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.

Of course, a good chunk of my net worth is in (as of yet unvested) employee shares of the startup I work for, so in that respect, I'm in pretty deep.
M2 is about 17.8 trillion. The market cap of all existing bitcoin is about $171 billion, or less than 1% of M2.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by nisiprius » Wed May 20, 2020 7:58 pm

core4portfolio wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:09 am
If US government replaces dollar with their own Crypto then i would buy as compelling reason. Other than that, its a bet to play and not really compelling one
Maybe it's worthwhile mentioning that the current national currency of Venezuela, the "sovereign bolivar," is pegged to a cryptocurrency, a stablecoin (I guess) called the petro. There are 3,600 sovereign bolivars to the petro. The petro itself is (supposedly) pegged to the price of a barrel of oil.

I cannot imagine anybody in their right mind voluntarily buying sovereign bolivars or petros.

Furthermore, the petro is a rather strange beast; Wikipedia's article on it cites sources that say
Venezuela legally allows and encourages the use of petro for virtually any payment including oil trade, taxes, fees, real estate, gasoline, flights and more. It is not actually possible to purchase anything with petros, none have been issued; there has never been a single purchase of any kind whatsoever, by anyone, using the petro.
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 21, 2020 5:40 am

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.

Of course, a good chunk of my net worth is in (as of yet unvested) employee shares of the startup I work for, so in that respect, I'm in pretty deep.
I would take this as the biggest bear signal I ever heard. A bunch of techies trying to pick investments. What is the Price to Earnings Ratio of Bitcoin?

But, then, I lived through the dot com crash.

Two groups whose personal investment decisions are often suspect: Traders in the City/ Wall Street (their risk appetite is often ridiculous) and people in tech.

The stock you own in your employer is a form of employee compensation, with risk shifting from the company to you. It could be very valuable - we used to be paid in bank stock (shadow options) and in the 1990s, it was lucrative.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am

SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Thu May 21, 2020 9:29 am

ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am
SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.
So you invested $17,500.
Took out $15k.
And you are at $25k BTC now.

Nice. That type of strategy is the only way I'd do it.

I thought about say $10k. Put $5k in BTC and keep the rest in cash and rebalance. Like a 50/50 risk/safe portfolio.

The more I read though, the more I concluded it's not really a great payment system, and has too many risks. I can lose $10 and not worry about it, but the story just didn't persuade me.

Glad to see your investment paid off anyway.

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ohboy!
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:29 am
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am
SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.
So you invested $17,500.
Took out $15k.
And you are at $25k BTC now.

Nice. That type of strategy is the only way I'd do it.

I thought about say $10k. Put $5k in BTC and keep the rest in cash and rebalance. Like a 50/50 risk/safe portfolio.

The more I read though, the more I concluded it's not really a great payment system, and has too many risks. I can lose $10 and not worry about it, but the story just didn't persuade me.

Glad to see your investment paid off anyway.
Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm

ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
Last edited by typical.investor on Thu May 21, 2020 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Thu May 21, 2020 9:23 pm

According to this, a single bitcoin whale manipulated the market in 2017 to prop up bitcoin prices.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
So, looks like people in this thread invest negligible portion of their investment portfolios into these bitcoins. Not sure how representative this sample is is, but this will make no difference in retirement.
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Fri May 22, 2020 10:38 am

SteadyOne wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm
typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
So, looks like people in this thread invest negligible portion of their investment portfolios into these bitcoins. Not sure how representative this sample is is, but this will make no difference in retirement.
Right now Im only holding ~10% of assets in crypto. Mostly BTC, ETH, LTC and BNB. But previously I had 10% in crypto and within 2 years, at the height of pricing, it was valued at 80% of my assets. Considering bitcoin was up 20x and Ethereum 150x a lot of people with small exposure had big impact to AA. Seems another similar bull run could affect retirement even with only 5-10% current allocation. Which in my mind is reason to have your feet wet. The barrier to entry is no higher than opening and funding a bank account.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by TheoLeo » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:02 am

Sold all my bitcoin today after some soul searching. Whatever I gain from it will be someone elses loss. My profit from it will entierely go to charity now, so my gambling balance sheet is zero again.

I don´t think there is an intrinsic value to bitcoin, if I am being honest with myself.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Anon9001 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am

I am coming back to this thread with new information. There is new exciting cryptos like Stablecoins which do not fluctuate in value like Bitcoins. The biggest one is Tether although that has counterparty risk (You have to trust Tether that 1 USDT=1USD) and possibly being prone to shut-down by US Government like Liberty Reserve. The good ones should be decentralized to prevent government shutdown and also to have no counterprty risk and I found out DAI. This is a stablecoin that is built in Ethereum Blockchain. The collateral is cryptocurrencies like ETH,BAT,BTC but also some stablecoins like USDC and TUSD. The earlier version of DAI which collateral was only ETH did a good job though mainting the peg with USD even though ETH crashed by 90%.This new one should be even safer due to the collateral not being just ETH. This is much more exciting than Bitcoin which is just a speculative asset that fools hold as it can function as a real currency due to the low volatility. It might even replace Bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency if they can keep maintaining the peg to USD.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:34 pm

Anon9001 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am
I am coming back to this thread with new information. There is new exciting cryptos like Stablecoins which do not fluctuate in value like Bitcoins. The biggest one is Tether although that has counterparty risk (You have to trust Tether that 1 USDT=1USD) and possibly being prone to shut-down by US Government like Liberty Reserve.
It's been knows for some time that Tether is not 1 USDT=1USD. It's also been suggested that unbacked issuance of Tether is what drove Bitcoins rise. In any case, it's now backed by unspecified assets ... likely other (potentially worthless) cryptos.

Anon9001 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am
The good ones should be decentralized to prevent government shutdown and also to have no counterprty risk and I found out DAI. This is a stablecoin that is built in Ethereum Blockchain. The collateral is cryptocurrencies like ETH,BAT,BTC but also some stablecoins like USDC and TUSD. The earlier version of DAI which collateral was only ETH did a good job though mainting the peg with USD even though ETH crashed by 90%.This new one should be even safer due to the collateral not being just ETH. This is much more exciting than Bitcoin which is just a speculative asset that fools hold as it can function as a real currency due to the low volatility. It might even replace Bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency if they can keep maintaining the peg to USD.
It's hard to see how any "stablecoin" isn't risky when the underlying backing may become worthless. In any case, there is a good look at it here and the conclusion is that coins backed by actual assets- a safe currency - is the least risky.

https://medium.com/the-capital/why-stab ... b971eba8e4

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:40 pm

Anon9001 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am
The good ones should be decentralized to prevent government shutdown and also to have no counterprty risk and I found out DAI. This is a stablecoin that is built in Ethereum Blockchain. The collateral is cryptocurrencies like ETH,BAT,BTC but also some stablecoins like USDC and TUSD. The earlier version of DAI which collateral was only ETH did a good job though mainting the peg with USD even though ETH crashed by 90%.This new one should be even safer due to the collateral not being just ETH. This is much more exciting than Bitcoin which is just a speculative asset that fools hold as it can function as a real currency due to the low volatility. It might even replace Bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency if they can keep maintaining the peg to USD.
Seems like the creation or spreading of an urban legend here that is separated from actual facts. I do not believe for a second that DAI is free from counterparty risk.

My information shows:
DAI Counterparty Risk: C
DAI is the stablecoin of Maker DAO which has been functioning efficiently since inception. Anyone can mint DAI by opening a CPD. The Maker team also has some control over the minting. Following the Black Thursday crash of March 2020, there was some deficit in the backing of DAI which required the minting of additional MKR. Additionally, there are some concerns related to the centralization of the price feed, with oracles failing to keep the prices up to date during the said Black Thursday.
Note that DAI's mechanism to maintain a peg is to print and sell MKR (a crypto) on the open market if collateral is losing value. Backing by multiple cryptos may help, or they may all move in the same direction. In the end, there is little to maintain the peg to USD. Try selling MKR in a dropping market to raise USD if your other collateral is dropping in value.

And here is the link to the DAI post-Black Thursday report https://defipulse.com/blog/defi-status- ... -thursday/

I encourage all investors to understand what they hold. People get burned by getting into things they don't understand. See ETNs for reference.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by nisiprius » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:56 pm

Anon9001 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am
I am coming back to this thread with new information. There is new exciting cryptos like Stablecoins which do not fluctuate in value like Bitcoins. The biggest one is Tether although that has counterparty risk (You have to trust Tether that 1 USDT=1USD)...
I understand you're enthusiastic and I think you're sincere, so I won't ask if you are joking. In my mind Tether is a relatively recent example of yet another thing that has given cryptocurrency a bad name.

The issue is not that "you have to trust Tether," the issue is that we already know that we can't trust Tether. Wikipedia's article says, in part:
Tether is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar... The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.

Tether is called a stablecoin because it was originally designed to always be worth $1.00, maintaining $1.00 in reserves for each tether issued. Nevertheless, Tether Limited states that owners of tethers have no contractual right, other legal claims, or guarantee that tethers will be redeemed or exchanged for dollars. On 30 April 2019 Tether Limited's lawyer claimed that each tether was backed by only $0.74 in cash and cash equivalents.

Tether Limited and the tether cryptocurrency are controversial because of the company's failure to provide a promised audit showing adequate reserves backing tether, its alleged role in manipulating the price of bitcoin, the unclear relationship with the Bitfinex exchange, and the company's apparent lack of a long-term banking relationship.
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by YesMatt » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.

Yeah, you have dogecoin and a lot of other random coins that serve no purpose and ones not backed by large corporations and governments. This is true in any industry. Plenty of terrible ETFs.

180b market cap. For someone who didn’t sell after buying in 13 and still holding. Still better returns than FPU and Buffett.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Anon9001 » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:56 am

typical.investor wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:40 pm
Anon9001 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:22 am
The good ones should be decentralized to prevent government shutdown and also to have no counterprty risk and I found out DAI. This is a stablecoin that is built in Ethereum Blockchain. The collateral is cryptocurrencies like ETH,BAT,BTC but also some stablecoins like USDC and TUSD. The earlier version of DAI which collateral was only ETH did a good job though mainting the peg with USD even though ETH crashed by 90%.This new one should be even safer due to the collateral not being just ETH. This is much more exciting than Bitcoin which is just a speculative asset that fools hold as it can function as a real currency due to the low volatility. It might even replace Bitcoin as the dominant cryptocurrency if they can keep maintaining the peg to USD.
Seems like the creation or spreading of an urban legend here that is separated from actual facts. I do not believe for a second that DAI is free from counterparty risk.

My information shows:
DAI Counterparty Risk: C
DAI is the stablecoin of Maker DAO which has been functioning efficiently since inception. Anyone can mint DAI by opening a CPD. The Maker team also has some control over the minting. Following the Black Thursday crash of March 2020, there was some deficit in the backing of DAI which required the minting of additional MKR. Additionally, there are some concerns related to the centralization of the price feed, with oracles failing to keep the prices up to date during the said Black Thursday.
Note that DAI's mechanism to maintain a peg is to print and sell MKR (a crypto) on the open market if collateral is losing value. Backing by multiple cryptos may help, or they may all move in the same direction. In the end, there is little to maintain the peg to USD. Try selling MKR in a dropping market to raise USD if your other collateral is dropping in value.

And here is the link to the DAI post-Black Thursday report https://defipulse.com/blog/defi-status- ... -thursday/

I encourage all investors to understand what they hold. People get burned by getting into things they don't understand. See ETNs for reference.
Yet despite the collateral ETH crashing by 90% it maintained the peg. Now it is safer due to the collateral being diversified to TUSD,USDC (These are stablecoins), BTC, BAT and ETH from the previous ETH only collateral. I would not recommend investing your life savings in DAI though. Smart contracts can have bugs. It is a very interesting experiment. If it keeps maintaining the peg to USD for 10 years it might be a game changer for cryptocurrencies in that it can actually be used as a currency and not as a speculative store of value.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:25 am

SteadyOne wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm
typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
So, looks like people in this thread invest negligible portion of their investment portfolios into these bitcoins. Not sure how representative this sample is is, but this will make no difference in retirement.
Small investors seem to often obsess over having small holdings in highly speculative investments on the off chance they get rich quick. Might work out for a lucky few.

I have about 1 mill invested in liquid assets (stocks/bonds). Nowadays, if I wouldn’t put 100k into an investment I won’t bother, and I definitely wouldn’t be putting 100k into bitcoin. I don’t really care about “missing out”.

My thoughts on bitcoin as a currency are , have these people never used a credit card/Apple Pay etc? I can’t see why I would ever want to pay for anything in bitcoin when I can easily buy anything, anywhere in the world with current technology.

DonIce
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by DonIce » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:40 am

YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.
Bitcoin is one application of blockchain. Blockchain is an idea, it can be used by anyone, without that use adding any new value to bitcoin. There's no company called "bitcoin" that gets paid royalties every time someone uses blockchain. Even if blockchain is adopted by banks, election agencies, etc, this has no direct impact on bitcoin. Bitcoin could go to zero even as blockchain gets widespread use.

mmcmonster
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by mmcmonster » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:09 am

oldfort wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 9:09 am
sarabayo wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:42 am
oldfort wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:19 pm
am wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:04 pm
I know nothing about this. Do you guess in the lifetime of those reading this forum or beyond? I bet there are many other risks for bitcoin going to 0. There is also a chance it will be worth much more years from now. No one knows.
I fully expect this to be in my lifetime. Mathematics and physics will be the death of today's crypto-currencies. I'm not a gold bug either, but at least you can put gold in a vault, come back in a thousand years, and it will be exactly the same.
Quantum computers aren't a magic bullet. There's a whole field of study called post-quantum cryptography which is dedicated to developing cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to being broken by quantum computers. It remains to be seen who will win that fight, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion that quantum cryptanalysis will win, let alone that it will win within your lifetime.
Does bitcoin use quantum resistant algorithms?
Apparently Bitcoin uses an Eliptic Curve signature. According to one article, it may be crackable by quantum methods by 2027.

Given that Google has announced "quantum supremacy", it may be a little earlier.

Reference: https://cointelegraph.com/explained/how ... -explained

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rmelvey
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by rmelvey » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am

I view bitcoin as a disruptor of physical gold. The average boglehead doesn't like gold, so Bitcoin doesn't really appeal to them. For me personally, I like have having gold in conjunction with nominal bonds. I also like having bitcoin because it has some properties of gold, but with much more speculative upside potential as the market cap is tiny compared with other asset classes. It also has close to zero correlation with stocks/bonds/gold, so within a portfolio at small weightings doesn't increase risk as much as you would think.

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF with physical redemption, or an extremely trusted cryptodollar that is widely used (aka NOT tether, ideally something government backed). This will bring the dollar liquidity to the market that is needed to reduce price fluctuations and bring the volatility closer to gold.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by YesMatt » Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:47 pm

rmelvey wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF with physical redemption, or an extremely trusted cryptodollar that is widely used (aka NOT tether, ideally something government backed). This will bring the dollar liquidity to the market that is needed to reduce price fluctuations and bring the volatility closer to gold.
Germany Stock Exchange just said that there will be soon (2020) a BTC ETF for investors. Can’t imagine the other Stock Exchanges in the world are far behind, especially when eastern countries are adopting blockchain at higher levels than the west. So our exchanges will probably be laggers, it is inevitable.

Bitcoin ETF should keep it a heavy market leader, regardless of how many other better cryptoassets there will be.

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rmelvey
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by rmelvey » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:01 pm

YesMatt wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:47 pm
rmelvey wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF with physical redemption, or an extremely trusted cryptodollar that is widely used (aka NOT tether, ideally something government backed). This will bring the dollar liquidity to the market that is needed to reduce price fluctuations and bring the volatility closer to gold.
Germany Stock Exchange just said that there will be soon (2020) a BTC ETF for investors. Can’t imagine the other Stock Exchanges in the world are far behind, especially when eastern countries are adopting blockchain at higher levels than the west. So our exchanges will probably be laggers, it is inevitable.

Bitcoin ETF should keep it a heavy market leader, regardless of how many other better cryptoassets there will be.
Wow hadn't seen this!!! This is great news. I think this will really help in so many ways. Next stop is a US ETF 8-)

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Nate79
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:16 pm

YesMatt wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:47 pm
rmelvey wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF with physical redemption, or an extremely trusted cryptodollar that is widely used (aka NOT tether, ideally something government backed). This will bring the dollar liquidity to the market that is needed to reduce price fluctuations and bring the volatility closer to gold.
Germany Stock Exchange just said that there will be soon (2020) a BTC ETF for investors. Can’t imagine the other Stock Exchanges in the world are far behind, especially when eastern countries are adopting blockchain at higher levels than the west. So our exchanges will probably be laggers, it is inevitable.

Bitcoin ETF should keep it a heavy market leader, regardless of how many other better cryptoassets there will be.
LOL. They have been trying this for years in the US, stating that it was just around the corner ETF offering. Where have you been?

Blue456
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Blue456 » Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:21 pm

indexlover wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 12:35 pm
Owning Bitcoin is a great way to defend oneself against the GMI (Great Monetary Inflation)
So is owning equities.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Patzer » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm

YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.

Yeah, you have dogecoin and a lot of other random coins that serve no purpose and ones not backed by large corporations and governments. This is true in any industry. Plenty of terrible ETFs.

180b market cap. For someone who didn’t sell after buying in 13 and still holding. Still better returns than FPU and Buffett.
Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain.
I like ETH. It seems like it has the most potential 5-10 years down the line.
I don't think BTC will be the winner.
Not going to invest and try to pick winners, because their are too many unknowns.
Can't index, because most coins have no real future.

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ohboy!
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:06 pm

Patzer wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm
YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.

Yeah, you have dogecoin and a lot of other random coins that serve no purpose and ones not backed by large corporations and governments. This is true in any industry. Plenty of terrible ETFs.

180b market cap. For someone who didn’t sell after buying in 13 and still holding. Still better returns than FPU and Buffett.
Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain.
I like ETH. It seems like it has the most potential 5-10 years down the line.
I don't think BTC will be the winner.
Not going to invest and try to pick winners, because their are too many unknowns.
Can't index, because most coins have no real future.
ETH is booming. Much like the previous ICO craze which was fueled by ETH as a platform now we have DeFi. Ethereum 2 coming soon with staking and with staking comes rewards for stakers.

ETH up 70% in one month. Last big run up I bought at $7 and it made it to $1400. Sold half of mine at $900. I’ll be staking. If you don’t know who Vitalik Buterin is then check him out.

am
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by am » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:33 am

ohboy! wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm
YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.

Yeah, you have dogecoin and a lot of other random coins that serve no purpose and ones not backed by large corporations and governments. This is true in any industry. Plenty of terrible ETFs.

180b market cap. For someone who didn’t sell after buying in 13 and still holding. Still better returns than FPU and Buffett.
Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain.
I like ETH. It seems like it has the most potential 5-10 years down the line.
I don't think BTC will be the winner.
Not going to invest and try to pick winners, because their are too many unknowns.
Can't index, because most coins have no real future.
ETH is booming. Much like the previous ICO craze which was fueled by ETH as a platform now we have DeFi. Ethereum 2 coming soon with staking and with staking comes rewards for stakers.

ETH up 70% in one month. Last big run up I bought at $7 and it made it to $1400. Sold half of mine at $900. I’ll be staking. If you don’t know who Vitalik Buterin is then check him out.
Etherium has unlimited supply unlike bitcoin. Etherium rising is good for coin holders but bad for those who work on the blockchain and have higher fees. I don’t understand how something unlimited can have future value?

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Anon9001 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:12 am

Risk free rates determine everything. I do not share this forum's revulsion toward Bitcoin but I am not a fanatic about it. I am rather neutral about it. It's fate if it is not used as a Global currency is rather bleak modern day tulips but I expect it to survive for a long period of time if risk free rates stay low as they are now. It is much more tempting to speculate on Bitcoin when you are earning 0% on your savings account.

am
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by am » Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:54 am

Anon9001 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:12 am
Risk free rates determine everything. I do not share this forum's revulsion toward Bitcoin but I am not a fanatic about it. I am rather neutral about it. It's fate if it is not used as a Global currency is rather bleak modern day tulips but I expect it to survive for a long period of time if risk free rates stay low as they are now. It is much more tempting to speculate on Bitcoin when you are earning 0% on your savings account.
It’s already used as a global currency. It will outlive us all even if rates go up. It has a limited supply and millions of people in many countries have attributed value to it as a means of exchange.

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ohboy!
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:56 pm

am wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:33 am
ohboy! wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:06 pm
Patzer wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm
YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
The argument to buy Bitcoin is like he argument to buy Pets.com in 1999, because the internet is amazing and it's going to be the future.

Pets.com went bankrupt in 2000 along with many of the dot com companies.
The idea of the internet lived on and succeeded, but many of today's tech winners didn't even exist back then.

I suspect there will be successful digital currencies in 2040, but see no compelling reason to believe Bitcoin will be the one that prevails.
I can’t imagine people know about blockchain technology anymore than they knew about the internet back when the bubble started. Actually, many people don’t know how the internet works but it continues on despite people needing to know that.

Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s. The technology and constant improvement. Ethereum’s (Amazon.com of your dot com examples)foundation for smart contracts and XRP’s cheap and fast technology to send money all around the world, which will save people and companies millions.

Elections in countries constantly suffering from rigged elections will push for blockchain election formats. I know my audience and I know it doesn’t matter, but don’t look at it as just tulips.

Yeah, you have dogecoin and a lot of other random coins that serve no purpose and ones not backed by large corporations and governments. This is true in any industry. Plenty of terrible ETFs.

180b market cap. For someone who didn’t sell after buying in 13 and still holding. Still better returns than FPU and Buffett.
Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain.
I like ETH. It seems like it has the most potential 5-10 years down the line.
I don't think BTC will be the winner.
Not going to invest and try to pick winners, because their are too many unknowns.
Can't index, because most coins have no real future.
ETH is booming. Much like the previous ICO craze which was fueled by ETH as a platform now we have DeFi. Ethereum 2 coming soon with staking and with staking comes rewards for stakers.

ETH up 70% in one month. Last big run up I bought at $7 and it made it to $1400. Sold half of mine at $900. I’ll be staking. If you don’t know who Vitalik Buterin is then check him out.
Etherium has unlimited supply unlike bitcoin. Etherium rising is good for coin holders but bad for those who work on the blockchain and have higher fees. I don’t understand how something unlimited can have future value?
That’s about equivalent to saying USD has infinite supply.

A lot of ETH is locked up in DeFi. Supply is relative to time and fixed supply is not necessary for high demand or rising value.

eco_eco
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by eco_eco » Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am

Blockchain is clearly a new technology with many uses in the long term, but who knows what if any of the current chains will be useful in the long run. Without a stable market it's very hard to call it anything other than a gamble. Like any gambling structure someone people have made a fortune, while many others lost their shirts.

I got heavily into Crypto as a hobby in 2017 after attending a government IT conference and seeing many many government agencies evaluating blockchain as a piece of tech to incorporate into their day to day operations. At that time I realised it was a thing and started to research. I like new tech.

Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.

Anyone investing serious wealth in crypto is - IMHO - wayyyy too willing to take risk. It's fine for play money, or as a hobby, but anyone investing large chunks of their wealth is setting themselves up for financial failure. It's not just the lack of controls over crypto, the many scams, the unknown nature of the future of the technology, but also the risk of loss of private keys and ability to access funds. At sometime in the future blockchain will have matured and there will be a safe market to invest in - but right now if you want to invest in Crypto I'd buy a company that is developing the tech, or set up an exchange.

For what it's worth I played with around $20,000 back in the 2018 bubble. This represented a tiny fraction of my net worth and was a fun way to learn about the technology. My rule was to sell the crypto I bought when it had made a 100% gain, so that I was only ever playing with 'the houses' money. The value of my coins eventually peaked at about $230,000 before collapsing. I got enough cash out to pay for a new driveway - which I appreciate every time I get my car out of the garage. I would never call it an investment, but the whole thing was more entertaining and much more informative than the lottery.

Maverick3320
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Maverick3320 » Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:27 am

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 5:55 pm
I am an exec at a crypto company.

Let me first state, I don't believe crypto is a suitable investment for individual investors. You definitely should not be putting your retirement in it.

However, over the long term it has gone up. And I should add that it has been a better investment in current times than other asset classes, for example Oil or Carnival Cruise stock, or tech stocks in 2001. And there are certain mathematical formulas which cause it to trend up over time given increases in demand. Keeping a small amount of BTC isn't the worst thing to do, when used as a tiny part of a well-diversified portfolio, but probably doesn't bring that much benefit for US based investors either. I definitely don't recommend keeping enough in bitcoin to move the needle.

Crypto does have a massive number of uses for which it is well suited. For example, we prefer to take payment in crypto because the merchant costs are much, much lower. Credit card costs ~3%. We pay zero using Coinbase Commerce or 1% using our fancy invoicing system that does the conversion for us and delivers dollars to our bank. This is especially true when you take into account international FX fees. Let's say you're an Indian software engineer in the US that wants to send $250k back to India at the end of your H1B. Sure, you could lose $1000+ in the hidden exchange rate conversion and wire, or you could send it in bitcoin and save yourself some real cash.

In addition, note that many of the features we ascribe to "money" may hold if you are in a well run currency like dollars or euros or yen but are not necessarily universal. For example, convertability across borders, lack of extreme volatility, etc. If you are in a Latin American country with a currency prone to both devaluation and exchange controls, keeping your money in Crypto may be highly appealing. Which is probably why we see massive acceptance of crypto across the developing world.
If the exchange that my bitcoin are traded on gets hacked - which seems to happen fairly frequently these days, no? - who do I talk to in order to get my bitcoin back?

jimbomahoney
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by jimbomahoney » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:25 am

Maverick3320 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:27 am
If the exchange that my bitcoin are traded on gets hacked - which seems to happen fairly frequently these days, no? - who do I talk to in order to get my bitcoin back?
You don't (i.e. shouldn't) keep large amounts with the exchange.

There are offline and hardware wallets for that.

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:54 am

eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am
Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.
Bitcoin may have some value as a medium of exchange on the dark web, if you're trading illegal drugs, weapons, or engaged in human trafficking. This is a niche market. There's not much evidence Bitcoin is remotely useful as a medium of exchange for legitimate enterprises.

CycloRista
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by CycloRista » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:19 am

rmelvey wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am
I view bitcoin as a disruptor of physical gold. The average boglehead doesn't like gold, so Bitcoin doesn't really appeal to them. For me personally, I like have having gold in conjunction with nominal bonds. I also like having bitcoin because it has some properties of gold, but with much more speculative upside potential as the market cap is tiny compared with other asset classes. It also has close to zero correlation with stocks/bonds/gold, so within a portfolio at small weightings doesn't increase risk as much as you would think.

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF with physical redemption, or an extremely trusted cryptodollar that is widely used (aka NOT tether, ideally something government backed). This will bring the dollar liquidity to the market that is needed to reduce price fluctuations and bring the volatility closer to gold.
I agree that bitcoin is a disruptor- of multiple tangible asset forms (not just gold).

I've bought and sold BTC 3 times and LTC once successfully and reinvested the proceeds in the stock market. Each time, I said: I have absolutely no idea if it is going up or down... I've sold stock options, stock grants and individual IPO shares in a similar frame of mind and as luck or good fortune would have it, I made out. That may not be the case with bitcoin, etc. but I accept the risk of trying different approaches in small and controlled sub-allocations of my entire portfolio.

The main cryptocurrency attractions for me are that they are not tied "directly" to the financial markets so transactions can occur 24x7 and may rise or fall due to a different rollercoaster/invisible hand/whatever you want to call it. Sure it is speculative however even the Wall St. big boys are now in on it too with Bakkt.

We'll undoubtedly see more in the way of widespread adoption of multiple crypto currencies over time (I'm not so sure Bakkt is "more secure" than any of the others that are also based on blockchain technology).

Mindbender
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Mindbender » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:32 am

Reading through this thread is interesting. I would be willing to bet most of the respondents trend to the older end of the age spectrum.

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:54 am

Mindbender wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:32 am
Reading through this thread is interesting. I would be willing to bet most of the respondents trend to the older end of the age spectrum.
What does this have to do with anything?

Mindbender
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Mindbender » Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:02 pm

oldfort wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:54 am
Mindbender wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:32 am
Reading through this thread is interesting. I would be willing to bet most of the respondents trend to the older end of the age spectrum.
What does this have to do with anything?

Shrug. Just an observation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... organ-says

eco_eco
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by eco_eco » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:44 pm

oldfort wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:54 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am
Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.
Bitcoin may have some value as a medium of exchange on the dark web, if you're trading illegal drugs, weapons, or engaged in human trafficking. This is a niche market. There's not much evidence Bitcoin is remotely useful as a medium of exchange for legitimate enterprises.
I’m not sure that’s accurate. Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are now in daily use by off shore workers sending funds to their home country. Eg:

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/bitco ... mittances/

My point about it’s use in the dark web was to point out that it’s acted as a mechanism of exchange in one environment (even if that environment is abhorrent) so it’s not too hard to imagine it becoming a mechanism of exchange in other, legitimate, environments as well.

While it’s not a strong use case in stable economies where there are well established banking systems and low cost transaction environments, in many environments around the globe it’s very useful to have an alternative to the national currency, or to needing to pay established players who are charging monopoly rents on fiscal services.

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HomerJ
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:42 pm

YesMatt wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Bitcoin is blockchain. So one would not say it is like Pets.com. Bitcoin is like the internet back in the 90s.
No, blockchain is like the Internet back in the 90s. Bitcoin could absolutely be Pets.com.

Bitcoin uses blockchain, like Pets.com used the internet.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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HomerJ
Posts: 14886
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:49 pm

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 5:55 pm
I am an exec at a crypto company.

Crypto does have a massive number of uses for which it is well suited. For example, we prefer to take payment in crypto because the merchant costs are much, much lower. Credit card costs ~3%. We pay zero using Coinbase Commerce or 1% using our fancy invoicing system that does the conversion for us and delivers dollars to our bank.
Why does a crypto company convert bitcoin payments to dollars? And then stores them in a traditional bank?

Things that make you go.... hmmm
Last edited by HomerJ on Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

oldfort
Posts: 1307
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:45 pm

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:38 am

eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:44 pm
oldfort wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:54 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am
Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.
Bitcoin may have some value as a medium of exchange on the dark web, if you're trading illegal drugs, weapons, or engaged in human trafficking. This is a niche market. There's not much evidence Bitcoin is remotely useful as a medium of exchange for legitimate enterprises.
I’m not sure that’s accurate. Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are now in daily use by off shore workers sending funds to their home country. Eg:

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/bitco ... mittances/

My point about it’s use in the dark web was to point out that it’s acted as a mechanism of exchange in one environment (even if that environment is abhorrent) so it’s not too hard to imagine it becoming a mechanism of exchange in other, legitimate, environments as well.

While it’s not a strong use case in stable economies where there are well established banking systems and low cost transaction environments, in many environments around the globe it’s very useful to have an alternative to the national currency, or to needing to pay established players who are charging monopoly rents on fiscal services.
What percent of global remittances are done with bitcoin?

softwaregeek
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 08, 2019 8:59 pm

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by softwaregeek » Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:16 pm

oldfort wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:38 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:44 pm
oldfort wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:54 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am
Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.
Bitcoin may have some value as a medium of exchange on the dark web, if you're trading illegal drugs, weapons, or engaged in human trafficking. This is a niche market. There's not much evidence Bitcoin is remotely useful as a medium of exchange for legitimate enterprises.
I’m not sure that’s accurate. Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are now in daily use by off shore workers sending funds to their home country. Eg:

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/bitco ... mittances/

My point about it’s use in the dark web was to point out that it’s acted as a mechanism of exchange in one environment (even if that environment is abhorrent) so it’s not too hard to imagine it becoming a mechanism of exchange in other, legitimate, environments as well.

While it’s not a strong use case in stable economies where there are well established banking systems and low cost transaction environments, in many environments around the globe it’s very useful to have an alternative to the national currency, or to needing to pay established players who are charging monopoly rents on fiscal services.
What percent of global remittances are done with bitcoin?
We believe if measured as a payment system globally behind Visa and Mastercard and slightly ahead of Amex.

We also believe that the UAE and possibly China will introduce state-backed crypto in the next 12 months. As others have pointed out, Venezuela's state backed crypto offering has not been successful, but to be fair Venezuela's traditional currency offering has not been particularly successful either.

Like all investments, they will need to be evaluated individually on their own merits when they come on the market. Personally, I would sign up for a (for now, theoretical) Chinese government backed crypto coin if I could get 2% interest on it.

oldfort
Posts: 1307
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:45 pm

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:11 pm

softwaregeek wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:16 pm
oldfort wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:38 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:44 pm
oldfort wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:54 am
eco_eco wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:50 am
Bitcoin itself clearly has had value as a currency and exchange of value. It has been used for many years on the dark web and more recently to exchange value when sending money to developing nations. It's well beyond the proof of concept stage. It's also entirely possible that it will fall to nearly nothing when a better option comes along.
Bitcoin may have some value as a medium of exchange on the dark web, if you're trading illegal drugs, weapons, or engaged in human trafficking. This is a niche market. There's not much evidence Bitcoin is remotely useful as a medium of exchange for legitimate enterprises.
I’m not sure that’s accurate. Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are now in daily use by off shore workers sending funds to their home country. Eg:

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/bitco ... mittances/

My point about it’s use in the dark web was to point out that it’s acted as a mechanism of exchange in one environment (even if that environment is abhorrent) so it’s not too hard to imagine it becoming a mechanism of exchange in other, legitimate, environments as well.

While it’s not a strong use case in stable economies where there are well established banking systems and low cost transaction environments, in many environments around the globe it’s very useful to have an alternative to the national currency, or to needing to pay established players who are charging monopoly rents on fiscal services.
What percent of global remittances are done with bitcoin?
We believe if measured as a payment system globally behind Visa and Mastercard and slightly ahead of Amex.

We also believe that the UAE and possibly China will introduce state-backed crypto in the next 12 months. As others have pointed out, Venezuela's state backed crypto offering has not been successful, but to be fair Venezuela's traditional currency offering has not been particularly successful either.

Like all investments, they will need to be evaluated individually on their own merits when they come on the market. Personally, I would sign up for a (for now, theoretical) Chinese government backed crypto coin if I could get 2% interest on it.
My question was about remittances, but on payments generally, Visa does over 180 billion transactions a year. Do you have any link showing tens of millions of Bitcoin transactions happen every day? Is it even theoretically possible for 180 billion bitcoin transactions to happen in a year? Isn't there a theoretical limit to the number of Bitcoin transactions which can happen in one day?

Maverick3320
Posts: 614
Joined: Tue May 12, 2015 2:59 pm

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Maverick3320 » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:06 am

jimbomahoney wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:25 am
Maverick3320 wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:27 am
If the exchange that my bitcoin are traded on gets hacked - which seems to happen fairly frequently these days, no? - who do I talk to in order to get my bitcoin back?
You don't (i.e. shouldn't) keep large amounts with the exchange.

There are offline and hardware wallets for that.
Haven't the wallets been hacked too?

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