U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. decades).

wackerdr
Posts: 83
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wackerdr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.
FB + instagram = social commerce

Google
One trick pony: advertising.
They are getting hurt from Amazon and FB, but still all in tech 😊

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.
They are in entertainment industry.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.
Enterprise + o365 subscription. I would treat it as Value, but LinkedIn added good edge.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?
Not personally a fan of the product . But they have such a growth path in international and headroom to make budget phones, that as a investor, I am not concerned at all.

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Selling more to existing ones. Grocery delivery is the most recent one.

Also Tesla is in battery business , power business or automobiles?

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TechGuy365
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TechGuy365 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:42 pm
Semantics wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:38 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:00 pm
Hard to see how the big 5 tech stocks justify their valuations. Where's the growth potential in their business models? Who hasn't heard of Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook? Where are the future customers? What are the future products existing customers will buy at higher than current rates?
Cloud and AI are big opportunities, among others.
Where are the customers they don't already have?

FYI, both "Cloud" and "AI" are little more than marketing buzz words. "Cloud" has existed since the earliest days of computing, c.f. IBM Mainframe. There also cannot be such a thing as "Artificial Intelligence" -- it is a contradiction of terms.
I was going to dispute each of the 4 sentences you wrote but then I figure your mind is made up so I won't.

If I could ask you though - do you think AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSFT stock price will stay at this level - 7/31/2020 - forever? Do you think their business won't grow any more? I can't speak for others, but I personally believe in these companies, and I'm willing to bet that their business will continue to grow, and their stock price will continue to go up. It's that simple. I don't need 100% certainty to make a decision, I just need 51%.

000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:22 pm

TechGuy365 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 pm
I was going to dispute each of the 4 sentences you wrote but then I figure your mind is made up so I won't.
Please do. In a PM if you feel that's more appropriate. My mind is not made up, but I do work in tech.
TechGuy365 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 pm
If I could ask you though - do you think AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSFT stock price will stay at this level - 7/31/2020 - forever? Do you think their business won't grow any more? I can't speak for others, but I personally believe in these companies, and I'm willing to bet that their business will continue to grow, and their stock price will continue to go up. It's that simple. I don't need 100% certainty to make a decision, I just need 51%.
No, I believe both their stock prices and underlying businesses will continue to grow. However, I believe their stock performance (due to how high they've been bid up) will grow more slowly than other stocks.

Badger97
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Badger97 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
All good points, but you are failing to see how many of these have already transformed their business and have the capital and user base to do it at will. And they will.

Amazon is the best example. You mention their product extensions and yet where they make profit is completely unlinked to their storefront.

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SB1234
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SB1234 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm

Badger97 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
All good points, but you are failing to see how many of these have already transformed their business and have the capital and user base to do it at will. And they will.

Amazon is the best example. You mention their product extensions and yet where they make profit is completely unlinked to their storefront.
From the perspective of one trick poniness, I feel the most prominent example is arguably apple. But their design and marketing leadership is indubitable. Also their focus on control actually meshes well with corporate IT/security. They pretty much have the corporate market for phones cornered.
Last edited by SB1234 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
anecdotes are not data

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 pm

jtower68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:50 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:41 pm
Awww. Now we have to wait the whole weekend for the stock market to go up again. :oops:
While you may have made this post jokingly, it still intrigues me. I sometimes wonder how much higher the S&P 500 would be today if markets were open on the weekends, or simply 24/7 (in the way BTC is).
Most of the price action happens after hours, when earnings are announced and the world's 7.8 billion people do stuff.

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UpsetRaptor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:56 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Those are some really profitable tricks.

000
Posts: 657
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).

000
Posts: 657
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:59 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:56 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Those are some really profitable tricks.
Yes, absolutely. But that is a known known -- it doesn't have predicate power of future stock price growth.

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SB1234
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SB1234 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:05 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:59 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:56 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Those are some really profitable tricks.
Yes, absolutely. But that is a known known -- it doesn't have predicate power of future stock price growth.
If we have learnt anything, it is that NOTHING has the predictive power of future stock price growth.
anecdotes are not data

wackerdr
Posts: 83
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wackerdr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:19 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm
Robot Monster wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
Apple, FB , Google and Amazon have regulatory risk Which could be an x-factor. In the next 2 years, there is a recessionary risk of declining revenues. But it is increasingly looking like they are well positioned to gobble up multiple Industries and sell more to their existing customers. Smaller competitors cannot stay afloat during recession and depression. If any , extended recession actually strengthens them even more in the long run.

000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:22 pm

wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:19 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm

Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
Apple, FB , Google and Amazon have regulatory risk Which could be an x-factor. In the next 2 years, there is a recessionary risk of declining revenues. But it is increasingly looking like they are well positioned to gobble up multiple Industries and sell more to their existing customers. Smaller competitors cannot stay afloat during recession and depression. If any , extended recession actually strengthens them even more in the long run.
Appreciate your response. Question: don't these companies need small businesses to survive? A lot of the revenue is in providing tools for others, not engaging in the underlying business directly. I would argue the internet has reduced costs to a point where small businesses can weather the storms better. All they need is an online presence.

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:39 pm

Superb close to the month of July, 2020:

Market Summary > S&P 500 Index
INDEXSP: .INX
3,271.12 +24.90 (0.77%)

wackerdr
Posts: 83
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by wackerdr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:08 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:22 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:19 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm

Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
Apple, FB , Google and Amazon have regulatory risk Which could be an x-factor. In the next 2 years, there is a recessionary risk of declining revenues. But it is increasingly looking like they are well positioned to gobble up multiple Industries and sell more to their existing customers. Smaller competitors cannot stay afloat during recession and depression. If any , extended recession actually strengthens them even more in the long run.
Appreciate your response. Question: don't these companies need small businesses to survive? A lot of the revenue is in providing tools for others, not engaging in the underlying business directly. I would argue the internet has reduced costs to a point where small businesses can weather the storms better. All they need is an online presence.
They absolutely do. I was taking about other mid-cap level businesses that are vulnerable for takeovers as well as bankruptcies. The other aspect is , these tech companies are kind of gate keepers and toll collectors of internet- advertising, marketing, tech services and most of things that are needed to run the small business. Just to give you a practical example, my own very small business has $15k a year spend on google cloud servers and $2k on LinkedIn subscriptions . 7 years ago, I might have bought servers and do stuff myself. Now it no longer makes sense and use Google Cloud or AWS instead. And I haven’t spent on any advertising yet.
Last edited by wackerdr on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:50 pm
jarjarM wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:44 pm
mrspock wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:33 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:22 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:14 pm
Wow! What caused the melt up?
me :sharebeer Jedi mind trick works sometimes.. I think it did today.
Jedi: "You will buy large caps. Those small caps are not the equities you are looking for."
Investors: "I will buy large caps."

Nice surprise at the close, I was ready to write the day off, instead portfolio hit a new all time high. Tech earnings did not disappoint.
Can we try that Jedi mind trick in reverse, so those of us suffering in small cap can get some reprieves :x
Why are you still holding small cap funds?
Because small cap heads can be stubborn :mrgreen:

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:55 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
I dislike Amazon but when I needed a new SSD HHD and Amazon had the best price guess who I purchased from?
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm
Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
I buy food and eat then I have to buy more. I eat almost every day too.

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Hector
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hector » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:14 pm

jtower68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:06 pm
SB1234 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
One interesting perspective I recently heard about about the US outperformance which is primarily driven by big tech is that big tech gets a large part of their revenue from outside US. AND ironically even though the pandemic is managed better sooner outside the US, the benefit has actually gone to big tech in terms of higher profits.
I wouldn't have thunk of that.
Absolutely. And conversely, many international companies whose customers are in the US may suffer because their customers here won't have the ability to buy as much from them. I could definitely see that happening for companies like SAP/Nestle/BMW, etc.
So foreign stock market is lagging behind US stock market, but US tech companies are flying high because of doing business in foreign countries!?

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:47 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Uhhh Amazon has just 1% of global retail and 4% of the US retail sales. The advertising numbers for Google et al are very similar. Online advertising is a drop in the bucket vs overall. When they start buying TV networks, billboards and newsprint ... pm me.

Also, why is it when companies focus intensely on what the excel at, investors whine about one trick pony’s, and when they don’t they whine about companies throwing money away on R&D? Seems a bit strange to me.

And isn’t the point of indexing is you don’t have to fixate on any one company, because you own them all? Relax, who cares what these companies do... you win no matter what, you own everything!

Semantics
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Semantics » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:07 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:42 pm
Semantics wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:38 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:00 pm
Hard to see how the big 5 tech stocks justify their valuations. Where's the growth potential in their business models? Who hasn't heard of Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook? Where are the future customers? What are the future products existing customers will buy at higher than current rates?
Cloud and AI are big opportunities, among others.
Where are the customers they don't already have?
Almost everyone used Google to search by the mid-2000s. Where were the customers they didn't have then?
FYI, both "Cloud" and "AI" are little more than marketing buzz words. "Cloud" has existed since the earliest days of computing, c.f. IBM Mainframe. There also cannot be such a thing as "Artificial Intelligence" -- it is a contradiction of terms.
Feel free to keep living in the 1970s then if you don't like those words. The rest of us living in 2020 know what I'm referring to. Deep learning has already revolutionized numerous industries, and is still in its relative infancy. It's going to contribute to huge advances in automation, and already has. No need to think about it too hard though, it's just a buzzword.

000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:41 pm

mrspock wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:47 pm
Uhhh Amazon has just 1% of global retail and 4% of the US retail sales. The advertising numbers for Google et al are very similar. Online advertising is a drop in the bucket vs overall. When they start buying TV networks, billboards and newsprint ... pm me.
Good point.
mrspock wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:47 pm
Also, why is it when companies focus intensely on what the excel at, investors whine about one trick pony’s, and when they don’t they whine about companies throwing money away on R&D? Seems a bit strange to me.
I am not complaining that they are one trick ponies. I was addressing a claim upthread that these companies are multi-industry synergies.
mrspock wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:47 pm
And isn’t the point of indexing is you don’t have to fixate on any one company, because you own them all? Relax, who cares what these companies do... you win no matter what, you own everything!
Valuations still matter to me, and they should matter even more to an investor with US stocks as their only stock holding.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 pm

Semantics wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:07 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:42 pm
Where are the customers they don't already have?
Almost everyone used Google to search by the mid-2000s. Where were the customers they didn't have then?
At that time, it was not known how effectively the business model could be monetized.
Semantics wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:07 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:42 pm
FYI, both "Cloud" and "AI" are little more than marketing buzz words. "Cloud" has existed since the earliest days of computing, c.f. IBM Mainframe. There also cannot be such a thing as "Artificial Intelligence" -- it is a contradiction of terms.
Feel free to keep living in the 1970s then if you don't like those words. The rest of us living in 2020 know what I'm referring to. Deep learning has already revolutionized numerous industries, and is still in its relative infancy. It's going to contribute to huge advances in automation, and already has. No need to think about it too hard though, it's just a buzzword.
It seems to me those words are typically used to market products that are in no way revolutionary.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:19 am

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm
Robot Monster wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:16 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
Current customers can buy more.
Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
Okay, that's a good point, but I'm gonna still argue that unless people buy *everything* from Amazon, there's always room to grow--that if, for example, Wal-Mart and Netflix are still doing well, obviously there's room for Amazon to step up its game and grow. Then of course there is potential for new products. A single new product, if it's a hit, could allow Amazon to significantly grow. Think how much money the single product of the iPhone makes for Apple. Imagine if, let's say, Alexa 4.0 was an absolute game changer...or Amazon could create something completely new. Right now I'm typing this out on an Amazon Fire tablet, and Alexa is three feet away. Is that the end of the road, the dead end...just two electronics devices they can sell me? If we're just talking theoretical potential, seems that is endless. ...oh, forgot to mention that Amazon still just mostly sells other companies' products, even though they have their own brands, that's just a small percentage of total sales.
Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. decades).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:22 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:55 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:58 pm
Haven't we reached a zenith due to the current stay-at-home situation? How much more can they buy from Amazon? Amazon already offers foodstuffs, durable goods, and virtual goods (software, films).
I buy food and eat then I have to buy more. I eat almost every day too.
Unless what you eat comes entirely from Amazon, and not just from them, actually, but their own personal brand, there is still room for Amazon to grow in this single area.
Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. decades).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:34 am

I am backing up the truck this week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:41 am

SB1234 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm
Badger97 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
All good points, but you are failing to see how many of these have already transformed their business and have the capital and user base to do it at will. And they will.

Amazon is the best example. You mention their product extensions and yet where they make profit is completely unlinked to their storefront.
From the perspective of one trick poniness, I feel the most prominent example is arguably apple. But their design and marketing leadership is indubitable. Also their focus on control actually meshes well with corporate IT/security. They pretty much have the corporate market for phones cornered.
Apple is a “one trick pony” in the same way Disney is a “one trick pony”. It isn’t. Everything may feed a unified ecosystem but underlying businesses are diverse and large.

Apple wearables by themselves are a Fortune 200 sized business.

As far as some of the other statements made, the cloud hasn’t existed since mainframes because most mainframes existed and served users within a single enterprise and not powering the myriad of user facing services across the internet today. It looks similar but is a paradigm shift in how computing resources are capitalized and managed.

Also saying Artificial Intelligence is “a contradiction in terms” sounds clever but isn’t. As someone who worked expert systems in the 90s when it was the silver bullet that would solve all our problems I can say that the industry has grown in ways that are more subtle than was the fiction of the day but has become as impactful and ubiquitous as predicted.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:45 am

Sigz wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:50 am
I see a red week tbh.
Narrator: it was not a red week.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:01 am
Being newly retired and stuck at home because of Covid has increased the amount of activity in my portfolio tremendously. It is not very BH but I do enjoy the mental stimulation it causes.
I got a kitten. Really helps distracting me from portfolio mischief.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:09 am

canadianbacon wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:45 am
Sigz wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:50 am
I see a red week tbh.
Narrator: it was not a red week.
Seems against human nature to be able to successfully tell yourself "I know nothing". That's why, when it comes to investing, best to shed one's human nature and become a monstrous robot like me, or a perfectly logical being like a pure-bred Vulcan (which Mr. Spock is not, he's half Winona Ryder).
Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. decades).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SB1234 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:28 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:41 am
SB1234 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm
Badger97 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
All good points, but you are failing to see how many of these have already transformed their business and have the capital and user base to do it at will. And they will.

Amazon is the best example. You mention their product extensions and yet where they make profit is completely unlinked to their storefront.
From the perspective of one trick poniness, I feel the most prominent example is arguably apple. But their design and marketing leadership is indubitable. Also their focus on control actually meshes well with corporate IT/security. They pretty much have the corporate market for phones cornered.
Apple is a “one trick pony” in the same way Disney is a “one trick pony”. It isn’t. Everything may feed a unified ecosystem but underlying businesses are diverse and large.

Apple wearables by themselves are a Fortune 200 sized business.

As far as some of the other statements made, the cloud hasn’t existed since mainframes because most mainframes existed and served users within a single enterprise and not powering the myriad of user facing services across the internet today. It looks similar but is a paradigm shift in how computing resources are capitalized and managed.

Also saying Artificial Intelligence is “a contradiction in terms” sounds clever but isn’t. As someone who worked expert systems in the 90s when it was the silver bullet that would solve all our problems I can say that the industry has grown in ways that are more subtle than was the fiction of the day but has become as impactful and ubiquitous as predicted.
Very important points.
Your reference to 'expert systems' brought back some fuzzy logic memories.😂
anecdotes are not data

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:52 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:09 am
canadianbacon wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:45 am
Sigz wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:50 am
I see a red week tbh.
Narrator: it was not a red week.
Seems against human nature to be able to successfully tell yourself "I know nothing". That's why, when it comes to investing, best to shed one's human nature and become a monstrous robot like me, or a perfectly logical being like a pure-bred Vulcan (which Mr. Spock is not, he's half Winona Ryder).
Good analogy. I agree, when it comes to investing, it's best to stay logical. Emotion is your enemy.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:18 pm

US stocks have performed well. There was a lost decade at the turn of the century and now a lost decade (or longer) for international.

The Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock (or S&P 500) and Total Bond is an excellent strategy for many investors at all ends of their investment journey. From beginning to retired it is easy to stay the course and tune out the noise as discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=188176
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:57 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:34 am
I am backing up the truck this week.
+1 Yup! :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:12 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:41 am
SB1234 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm
Badger97 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 pm
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC.
I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations.
wackerdr wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Secondly, each of the techs have blended the industry classifications with synergies that were not seen before. The closest thing from the past that comes to mind is GE which was in virtually every industry , but was like 100 different companies with no synergies. Compare that with Amazon - do we call it tech company , advertising company, retail , warehousing company, logistics company? It is a leader in multiple industries.

If Amazon feels like one company, while it really is so many different capabilities, it is because of the management vision and execution. This paradigm was not there before Amazon. If someone reads business management books from the past, they would also talk about building on core competencies. I guess Amazon’s core competency is vision and execution. But I digress. The point in each of the top FAANGM are in multiple industries with multiple revenue streams, and ultra healthy balance sheets. They will probably go from growth to value in due course. New innovation will come from outside FAANGM. But one thing for sure , the leadership at these are all ears towards disruptive technologies and business models. They are not afraid of cannibalizing their own revenue streams. That’s what separates this generation from pre-year 2000.
Here are my thoughts.

Facebook
One trick pony: advertising.

Google
One trick pony: advertising.

Netflix
One trick pony: streaming.

Microsoft
One trick pony: locked-in customers.

Apple
Limited to people willing to be immersed in its ecosystem. Where are Apple's new customers?

Amazon
Arguably has cross-industry synergies, but I ask again: where are the new customers? Who hasn't heard of Amazon?
All good points, but you are failing to see how many of these have already transformed their business and have the capital and user base to do it at will. And they will.

Amazon is the best example. You mention their product extensions and yet where they make profit is completely unlinked to their storefront.
From the perspective of one trick poniness, I feel the most prominent example is arguably apple. But their design and marketing leadership is indubitable. Also their focus on control actually meshes well with corporate IT/security. They pretty much have the corporate market for phones cornered.
Apple is a “one trick pony” in the same way Disney is a “one trick pony”. It isn’t. Everything may feed a unified ecosystem but underlying businesses are diverse and large.

Apple wearables by themselves are a Fortune 200 sized business.

As far as some of the other statements made, the cloud hasn’t existed since mainframes because most mainframes existed and served users within a single enterprise and not powering the myriad of user facing services across the internet today. It looks similar but is a paradigm shift in how computing resources are capitalized and managed.

Also saying Artificial Intelligence is “a contradiction in terms” sounds clever but isn’t. As someone who worked expert systems in the 90s when it was the silver bullet that would solve all our problems I can say that the industry has grown in ways that are more subtle than was the fiction of the day but has become as impactful and ubiquitous as predicted.
Appreciate you taking the time to respond.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KyleAAA » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm

LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SB1234 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:31 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
A lot of talk about Netflix used to be how much they see spending on content. But now I think that it is the best advantage besides technology of course. Content is just like software that way. Build once sell forever. Just like Microsoft. After a point you can watch only so much Friends.
anecdotes are not data

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:20 pm

canadianbacon wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:01 am
Being newly retired and stuck at home because of Covid has increased the amount of activity in my portfolio tremendously. It is not very BH but I do enjoy the mental stimulation it causes.
I got a kitten. Really helps distracting me from portfolio mischief.
But I am enjoying my portfolio mischief.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KyleAAA » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm

000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:46 am

SB1234 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm

...From the perspective of one trick poniness, I feel the most prominent example is arguably apple. But their design and marketing leadership is indubitable. Also their focus on control actually meshes well with corporate IT/security. They pretty much have the corporate market for phones cornered.
I think you are underestimating Apple significantly. Essentially they have a huge installed base of iPhones, iPads are doing OK, but their computers are needing help.

So, what do they do? They are now starting make their own CPUs for computers, and will have common programs that run on all 3 platforms. If this doesn't give other computer guys the heebie-jeebies they just aren't paying attention.

And, right there is their supply of new customers.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:00 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:20 pm
canadianbacon wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:01 am
Being newly retired and stuck at home because of Covid has increased the amount of activity in my portfolio tremendously. It is not very BH but I do enjoy the mental stimulation it causes.
I got a kitten. Really helps distracting me from portfolio mischief.
But I am enjoying my portfolio mischief.
I used to know a kid in elementary school who used to pour Elmer's glue on his hand, wait for it to dry, and then peel it off and eat it. Many questioned this behavior, but his rationale was as simple as yours: he enjoyed it. Now, am I equating what you're doing in your portfolio to eating glue? No, of course not. Then why did I bother telling this tale about the strange glue eating boy from my past? Because I enjoyed to.
Investors often exhibit a tendency to evaluate the performance of their portfolio over very short horizons (e.g. days) even when their actual investment time horizon is quite long (e.g. decades).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KyleAAA » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm

000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.
Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:55 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.
Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point.

nigel_ht
Posts: 1009
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:01 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:05 pm
LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred. Google certainly isn't one, either.
Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.
Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
$20B out of $125B in 2019. Somewhere around 16%.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8424
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KyleAAA » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:29 pm

000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm


Once again, I am talking about the stock performance, not the underlying business. The stock performance could be bad due to being overbid even if the underlying business is strong.

I'm glad I posted here. It confirms my preconception that US tech stock euphoria continues. I am prepared to be humbled.
No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.
Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point.
Let me phrase this another way: if Windows revenue went to $0 tomorrow, Microsoft would lose at most 10-15% of its market value. Microsoft is a trillion dollar company without Windows. Clearly not a one trick pony, as you claimed. The future market value of Microsoft does not depend on Windows. The operating system portion of Microsoft’s TAM is less than 5%. It doesn’t move the needle much.

000
Posts: 657
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:36 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:29 pm
000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:32 pm


No, you were talking about the underlying business by calling it a one trick pony. You don't seem to understand the company or the markets it competes in. But the stock is also sound. The price is very reasonable given business prospects. The price would need to double before you could realistically say it was getting into euphoria territory. The stock performance could certainly turn out to be bad, but it won't be because it is overpriced relative to its growth prospects.
We will have to wait and see!
Microsoft 10-K wrote: We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face significant competition from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that in the past were performed by personal computers.
Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point.
Let me phrase this another way: if Windows revenue went to $0 tomorrow, Microsoft would lose at most 10-15% of its market value. Microsoft is a trillion dollar company without Windows. Clearly not a one trick pony, as you claimed. The future market value of Microsoft does not depend on Windows. The operating system portion of Microsoft’s TAM is less than 5%. It doesn’t move the needle much.
My contention is that most customers in the Microsoft ecosystem are there because of Windows.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8424
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KyleAAA » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:40 pm

000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:36 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:29 pm
000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm
000 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm


We will have to wait and see!

Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point.
Let me phrase this another way: if Windows revenue went to $0 tomorrow, Microsoft would lose at most 10-15% of its market value. Microsoft is a trillion dollar company without Windows. Clearly not a one trick pony, as you claimed. The future market value of Microsoft does not depend on Windows. The operating system portion of Microsoft’s TAM is less than 5%. It doesn’t move the needle much.
My contention is that most customers in the Microsoft ecosystem are there because of Windows.
Your contention is provably wrong. Over 95% of workflows on Azure run on Linux, for example. The commercial cloud suite is also completely decoupled from Windows.

User avatar
SB1234
Posts: 202
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:41 pm
Location: Laniakea

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SB1234 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:50 pm

Cloud customer will buy either from Microsoft, or Amazon or Google. Personal computing from either apple, Microsoft or Google. You can go on and on. If you want to advertise you here either Google or Facebook. Just buy the market and let them figure out who wins.
anecdotes are not data

000
Posts: 657
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:58 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:40 pm
000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:36 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:29 pm
000 wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:32 pm


Yeah, it’s exactly what I thought. There isn’t even a Windows org within Microsoft anymore, it isn’t a dominant revenue generator anymore, and Microsoft is planning for Windows revenue to slowly decline. The future of Microsoft has little to do with Windows and Satya has actively pivoted toward the cloud from day one. Like I said, you don’t understand the company or the markets it competes in. Do you even know how low of a percentage of Microsoft revenue comes from Windows these days?
According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point.
Let me phrase this another way: if Windows revenue went to $0 tomorrow, Microsoft would lose at most 10-15% of its market value. Microsoft is a trillion dollar company without Windows. Clearly not a one trick pony, as you claimed. The future market value of Microsoft does not depend on Windows. The operating system portion of Microsoft’s TAM is less than 5%. It doesn’t move the needle much.
My contention is that most customers in the Microsoft ecosystem are there because of Windows.
Your contention is provably wrong. Over 95% of workflows on Azure run on Linux, for example. The commercial cloud suite is also completely decoupled from Windows.
Yes, I know most Azure use is Linux. I interpret this data point differently. To me, businesses are using Linux on Azure (instead of a firm with more experience with -- and a less hostile position to -- unix) because they've bought into the Microsoft ecosystem, which can't exist with Windows. Windows is the only unique product Microsoft has. Microsoft may be able to turn itself into a Linux shop :twisted:, but not without giving up its unique monopoly product.

By giving corporate "Microsoft shops" a window :D into Linux and embedding Linux (WSL) into Windows 10, they're making it really easy for ISVs to abandon Win32 and go full on POSIX, which means Microsoft's unique position is degraded. Moving a Linux Virtual workload to another cloud provider is trivially easy compared to moving a Win32 workload off Windows Server. You basically can't do it. There is no enterprise grade Windows replacement. But Linux distros and the cloud shops that know how to host them are a dime a dozen.

In an attempt to stay relevant, Microsoft is cannibalizing its legacy business. Where will the replacement revenue come from? A consumer example is xbox. Microsoft chose to cannibalize the xbox business by making pretty much everything work both on Xbox One and Windows 10. Why buy an xbox?

How can Microsoft survive without Windows? As a service provider for Linux VMs? It's a commodity business. As an expert Linux shop / Linux contributor? I think there will be significant opposition to Microsoft code getting in the kernel.
Last edited by 000 on Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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