Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

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Ferdinand2014
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm

000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I choose to own a super low cost S&P 500 index fund (FXAIX Er 0.0015) and cash (treasury bills). Doesn’t get much simpler and with out any decisions to make (I don’t need to rebalance, I do not have to decide on an allocation, no ETFs so I buy FXAIX every week automatically - makes it harder to skip a week or ‘cheat’ on my savings rate, eliminates day trading enticement, unbelievably low cost, etc). I know with certainty I will get the returns of whatever the S&P 500 gives me and I am content with that. It is remarkable how my strategy aligns with my personality and has kept me on task through many turbulent times. I have been investing now for over 26 years. I would say the most important piece of advise besides a high savings rate is to know thyself.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

palanzo
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by palanzo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
Total World Stock and Total Bond will also never be below average.

000
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by 000 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm
000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Therefore, I own a super low cost S&P 500 index fund (FXAIX) and cash (treasury bills). Doesn’t get much simpler and with out any decisions to make (I don’t need to rebalance, I do not have to decide on an allocation, no ETFs so I buy FXAIX every week automatically - makes it harder to skip a week or ‘cheat’ on my savings rate, eliminates day trading enticement, unbelievably low cost, etc). I know with certainty I will get the returns of whatever the S&P 500 gives me and I am content with that. It is remarkable how my strategy aligns with my personality and has kept me on task through many turbulent times. I have been investing now for over 26 years. I would say the most important piece of advise besides a high savings rate is to know thyself.
The single country risk I am referring to is not just catastrophic outcomes for the US, it is also the risk of US equities being overvalued.

But I understand your point that US and Developed Markets equities are a similar beast. Of course, I interpret this to mean the cost of diversification probably won't be too high :twisted:

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:25 pm

000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm
000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Therefore, I own a super low cost S&P 500 index fund (FXAIX) and cash (treasury bills). Doesn’t get much simpler and with out any decisions to make (I don’t need to rebalance, I do not have to decide on an allocation, no ETFs so I buy FXAIX every week automatically - makes it harder to skip a week or ‘cheat’ on my savings rate, eliminates day trading enticement, unbelievably low cost, etc). I know with certainty I will get the returns of whatever the S&P 500 gives me and I am content with that. It is remarkable how my strategy aligns with my personality and has kept me on task through many turbulent times. I have been investing now for over 26 years. I would say the most important piece of advise besides a high savings rate is to know thyself.
The single country risk I am referring to is not just catastrophic outcomes for the US, it is also the risk of US equities being overvalued.

But I understand your point that US and Developed Markets equities are a similar beast. Of course, I interpret this to mean the cost of diversification probably won't be too high :twisted:
I have actually debated the ETF URTH (ishares) as it is all in one MSCI World Index fund (Developed large cap blend) as a single developed large cap fund. It has actually beat its underlying index fairly consistently since inception, but it is an ETF which for behavioral reasons mentioned above, I try to avoid and it’s expense ratio is moderate at 0.24 - although somehow (stock lending?) consistently outperforms the index.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239 ... -world-etf

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/14 ... fcb5bd6523

The World Index is essentially the S&P 500, EAFE and Canada. About 1,600 stocks, large cap blend.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

000
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by 000 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:40 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:25 pm
I have actually debated the ETF URTH (ishares) as it is all in one MSCI World Index fund (Developed large cap blend) as a single developed large cap fund. It has actually beat its underlying index fairly consistently since inception, but it is an ETF which for behavioral reasons mentioned above, I try to avoid and it’s expense ratio is moderate at 0.24 - although somehow (stock lending?) consistently outperforms the index.

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239 ... -world-etf

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/14 ... fcb5bd6523

The World Index is essentially the S&P 500, EAFE and Canada. About 1,600 stocks, large cap blend.
Interesting, I wouldn't think securities lending in large caps would be a big revenue driver. You'd also be increasing your ER by 16x :shock:

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unclescrooge
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by unclescrooge » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:52 pm

dmcmahon wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:01 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:01 pm
dmcmahon wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:32 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
I was bitterly disappointed in the returns losses I accumulated in international index funds over 10 years. Largely on valuation, the sinking dollar, and relative COVID-19 response by governments, I'm hearing more buzz about international investing. This heartens me somewhat because I have hung on to some international positions in trust funds that I'm responsible for, even as I personally and publicly bailed out for my own portfolio. I'm open to a well-constructed international growth index but have yet to find one at low cost (EFG is close). Meanwhile I've no cause to regret having left VEA and VXUS for VUG.
It has definitely been a challenging international investment environment. I had invested in intern for even a longer period of time.
10 years is long enough for me to admit I was wrong while still telling myself I’m not performance-chasing. How long are you supposed to cling to an investment thesis to avoid being accused of recency bias on this site? Need you ride a losing position all the way to the grave?
I think 22 years is long enough.

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unclescrooge
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by unclescrooge » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm
000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Could I be wrong?
CXSE (China, ex-state owned enterprises) has outperformed SPY but 25 percentage points YTD.

You can choose to invest in a US-only index, and I'm sure you will do fine, but that is an active decision and is not passive indexing.

Valuethinker
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:24 am

columbia wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:56 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:26 pm
vineviz wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:50 pm
I think anyone who believes that the recent strong relative performance of US stocks can persist indefinitely should take a look back at how these cycles have played out over the past six decades.
With unbounded American exceptionalism? :twisted:
To be very clear, that’s not what the theory of American exceptionalism meant:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism
Thank you, that is very interesting. Light shone into a dark corner (of my mind, at least).

Anon9001
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Anon9001 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:56 am

Take out the currency depreciation and returns will be better. I am confused that the forum rants about Gold 0% real return yet is fine with investing in currency which has the same return as Gold. Considering that Europe and Japan have lower interest rates than USA you are literally getting paid to hedge verses gambling on the currency return.

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:28 am

unclescrooge wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm
000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Could I be wrong?
CXSE (China, ex-state owned enterprises) has outperformed SPY but 25 percentage points YTD.

You can choose to invest in a US-only index, and I'm sure you will do fine, but that is an active decision and is not passive indexing.
It has underperformed the S&P 500 since inception...has a much higher volatility, drawdown. Either way, the fact of its outperformance the last 2 months has zero effect on any thoughts of FOMO. This reinforces my belief that staying the course of a plan I can be comfortable with is much more important. In fact I am very confident the S&P 500 will underperform relative to something else every year as long as I own it. I am honestly not totally sure what keeps me staying the course - familiarity of the companies in it, shareholder rights, most common index cited, represents every sector and industry, super cheap to own, highly liquid? It is not recency bias as I am fully aware it underperforms something every year, and I held it when it underperformed international. The fact that I held tight going all the way back to 2000 tells me I am doing the right thing.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

lostdog
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:15 am

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:38 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:26 pm

Ten years is a blink of an eye in equity investing terms.
That depends on where each investor is in their journey.

That doesn't matter. What if an investor started with a US only index in 2001, gave up on it and switched to international in 2010? I find it hilarious how you guys think the US only index will not have a lost decade from now into infinity.
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lostdog
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am

abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
Global Market Cap Equity || 25x Expenses

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by abuss368 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 am

The only important consideration is where an investor is in their journey.

It actually makes no difference as a Two or Three Fund Portfolio will never be below average. That is the beauty!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Anon9001 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:21 am

Related to this I posted this before but It is impressive how much 50% NESTLE 50% SWISSCOM outperform VGTSX:https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion2_1=50

But also look at the much lower risk. These two companies survived the dotcom bubble,2008 meltdown and COVID19 much better compared to VGTSX. If we take the EMH approach where all stocks have the same expected return and risk this is very confusing.

The indexes might be bad for Ex-US compared to Active funds due to this reason.
Last edited by Anon9001 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

lostdog
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:22 am

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:32 pm
Cycle wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:22 pm
I view it the same way I view real estate, I need it for shelter in case of a major storm but I don't expect it to appreciate more than inflation in my lifetime. Well not quite... with international I'd certainly expect above inflation appreciation at some point, but I may be pushing up daisies before that happens.
I have no interest in international returning the same as US. For the additional and higher risks, international should have consistent returns in excess of US.
Are you serious?
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Triple digit golfer » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:23 am

abuss368 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 am
The only important consideration is where an investor is in their journey.

It actually makes no difference as a Two or Three Fund Portfolio will never be below average. That is the beauty!
One of them will always be below average or above average, depending on what "average" is.

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hisdudeness
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by hisdudeness » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
But but but...Lostdog didn't you performance chase INTO international stocks about the same time that Abuss gave up on them?
And as it turned out, his decision was a more profitable one and your performance chasing decision, clearly to this point anyway, a bad decision.
Have you ever calculated what your balance would be if you'd stayed the course as a Jack Bogle recommended US only 2 fund portfolio?
That would be interesting, if you'd like to share it.

lostdog
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:45 am

hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
But but but...Lostdog didn't you performance chase INTO international stocks about the same time that Abuss gave up on them?
And as it turned out, his decision was a more profitable one and your performance chasing decision, clearly to this point anyway, a bad decision.
Have you ever calculated what your balance would be if you'd stayed the course as a Jack Bogle recommended US only 2 fund portfolio?
That would be interesting, if you'd like to share it.
It was a diversification decision and it helps me sleep better at night. I never have to wonder what section of my portfolio will do better than the other. I just buy everything and accept the global return.

Atleast you admit to performance chasing, I'll give you that. It would suck for a young investor to go all US and all of a sudden revert to the mean months or a few years later. It's important for a young investor not to fall into the pit of xen$&# investing.

It's important to see for young investors that the old school club of performance chasing in and out of mutual funds is a thing of the past. Just buy the global haystack of equities and forget about it. Rick Ferri will agree.
Last edited by lostdog on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Blue456
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Blue456 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:53 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:45 am
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
But but but...Lostdog didn't you performance chase INTO international stocks about the same time that Abuss gave up on them?
And as it turned out, his decision was a more profitable one and your performance chasing decision, clearly to this point anyway, a bad decision.
Have you ever calculated what your balance would be if you'd stayed the course as a Jack Bogle recommended US only 2 fund portfolio?
That would be interesting, if you'd like to share it.
It was a diversification decision and it helps me sleep better at night. I never have to wonder what section of my portfolio will do better than the other. I just buy everything and accept the global return.

Atleast you admit to performance chasing, I'll give you that. It would suck for a young investor to go all US and all of a sudden revert to the mean months or a few years later. It's important for a young investor not to fall into the pit of xen$&# investing.
Agree with the above. Plus few things to consider regarding being able to sleep at night. For me taking on single economy sovereign risk means that I would not feel comfortable taking more than 50/50 or 40/60 split in SP500 and Fixed income. With Vanguard Total World Stock (VT), I feel more comfortable pushing my AA to 70/30 and 80/20. So in my case, the comparison between VT and Jack Bogle 2-fund portfolio would have never been on equal terms. And last time I checked 70/30 VT vs 60/40 SP500 was not too much off in terms of gains. Which clearly represents that AA is the biggest driving factor in profits.

lostdog
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:11 am

I could start a thread and call it "The Elon Musk Two Fund Portfolio". TSLA and Total Bond. What's the difference?
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TonyDAntonio
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by TonyDAntonio » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:27 am

Thanks for reminding me. 2008 was right about the time I started getting 'educated' about my retirement investments. Stumbled onto Merriman first (instead of Bogle). Divided my mostly US stock fund into the slice and dice Merriman Ultimate :oops: Portfolio including a healthy dose of international. Should have stayed dumb. We'll see how the next 12 years go. I haven't changed much. Still waiting for the Ultimate to kick in.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by abuss368 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:05 am

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:28 am
unclescrooge wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:10 pm
000 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:44 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:40 pm
Given the very high correlation (definitely not returns though) at almost 1 the last 12 years and about .85 the last 20-25 years between developed US and international, why did you choose this and not add emerging?
1. Adequate diversification from single country risk.
2. Risks of investing in emerging markets equity, especially China (40%+ of VWO), seem like they will not be compensated to me. I am only willing to invest in things I either directly control (small business, land) or public investments with strong shareholder protections.
3. Most emerging markets funds are dominated by multinationals that just happen to be domiciled in certain countries. IMO they are likely to perform similarly to the multinationals that dominate US and Developed Markets funds.
4. The best growth opportunities in emerging markets are not investable to me at a reasonable cost. Land, startups, etc. Small-cap emerging markets funds have ERs of 0.60+.
5. VEA ER is 0.05, compare to 0.08 for VXUS and 0.10 for VWO.
6. More qualified dividends.
I agree with everything you say, with the exception of single country risk. If the U.S. tanks politically, economically, I highly doubt owning developed market international will help at all. Could I be wrong?
CXSE (China, ex-state owned enterprises) has outperformed SPY but 25 percentage points YTD.

You can choose to invest in a US-only index, and I'm sure you will do fine, but that is an active decision and is not passive indexing.
It has underperformed the S&P 500 since inception...has a much higher volatility, drawdown. Either way, the fact of its outperformance the last 2 months has zero effect on any thoughts of FOMO. This reinforces my belief that staying the course of a plan I can be comfortable with is much more important. In fact I am very confident the S&P 500 will underperform relative to something else every year as long as I own it. I am honestly not totally sure what keeps me staying the course - familiarity of the companies in it, shareholder rights, most common index cited, represents every sector and industry, super cheap to own, highly liquid? It is not recency bias as I am fully aware it underperforms something every year, and I held it when it underperformed international. The fact that I held tight going all the way back to 2000 tells me I am doing the right thing.
The further along in our investment journey, the more I appreciate how much of an impact investor behavior has.
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by spdoublebass » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:15 am
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:38 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:26 pm

Ten years is a blink of an eye in equity investing terms.
That depends on where each investor is in their journey.

That doesn't matter. What if an investor started with a US only index in 2001, gave up on it and switched to international in 2010? I find it hilarious how you guys think the US only index will not have a lost decade from now into infinity.
My main issue with the two fund thread is that people are not Staying The Course with their original portfolio decision.

In this video, Bogle is asked what should someone do if they already hold Emerging Markets. He then states it probably means they are cheaper now and that long term it will be ok. Stay the Course.

I do not believe Bogle would ever advocate to capitulate and not stay the course. His whole point is that staying the course is more important than the decision you make in what to invest in. When people use his name to justify not staying the course it just means they never heard his message in the first place.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/08/20/i ... bogle.html
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Triple digit golfer » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:46 am

spdoublebass wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:15 am
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:38 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:26 pm

Ten years is a blink of an eye in equity investing terms.
That depends on where each investor is in their journey.

That doesn't matter. What if an investor started with a US only index in 2001, gave up on it and switched to international in 2010? I find it hilarious how you guys think the US only index will not have a lost decade from now into infinity.
My main issue with the two fund thread is that people are not Staying The Course with their original portfolio decision.

In this video, Bogle is asked what should someone do if they already hold Emerging Markets. He then states it probably means they are cheaper now and that long term it will be ok. Stay the Course.

I do not believe Bogle would ever advocate to capitulate and not stay the course. His whole point is that staying the course is more important than the decision you make in what to invest in. When people use his name to justify not staying the course it just means they never heard his message in the first place.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/08/20/i ... bogle.html
Best post of the discussion right here.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by McGilicutty » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:00 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
I think it's hard to argue that the U.S. doesn't have the best money printers in the entire world.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by vineviz » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:08 am

McGilicutty wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:00 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
I think it's hard to argue that the U.S. doesn't have the best money printers in the entire world.
Maybe. It’d be even harder to argue that is a reason for investing exclusively in US stocks.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by SantaClaraSurfer » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:15 pm

Not seeing this. What am I missing.

Investor puts $15000 per year into a 401(k) from 2000-2020 w rebalancing and reinvesting dividends and the CAGR for 100% US is 23.5% versus 22.14% for 70/30 US/Int'l. What's the complaint? Those are both exceptional results.

(Sorry, if you click through you will have to add the 30% in Portfolio B since the link is too long.)

Definitely seems like there's some recency bias going on to me, since from 2000-2010 (half the duration), Int'l was ahead.

I mean, if you followed this logic in 2009, you might have missed out on a great decade for US equities.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by garlandwhizzer » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:04 pm

dmcmahon wrote:

10 years is long enough for me to admit I was wrong while still telling myself I’m not performance-chasing. How long are you supposed to cling to an investment thesis to avoid being accused of recency bias on this site? Need you ride a losing position all the way to the grave?
1+

I too have struggled with holding Value and INTL as well as increased exposure to SC for 10 - 15 years during which growth killed value, US killed INTL, and LC outperformed SC. The theoretical reasons for holding these asset classes sound convincing and they also backtest well if you omit the last 15 years. Unfortunately many of us have been on board for 10 - 15 years and haven't enjoyed the outperformance that preceded it. We're instead in a deep hole.

The asset class that according to factor theory and in pre-discovery (1992) backtesting past as well, SCV, looked like a sure winner for the long term but instead turned out the a big loser for the last 15 years. Prior to that SCV looked like a world beater but right now, DFSVX the world class SCV fund, is almost dead even with the VFINX (S&P 500) in total return ever since its inception 28+ years ago and with much lower Sharpe ratio. The volatility and risk of SCV has been on full display for 28 years, but where is the payoff? This is sufficiently strange that it demands an explanation IMO. A state of the art fund for the 2 most popular non-beta factors cannot significantly outperform a fund dominated by LCG mega-caps, the exact opposite of small and value for almost 3 decades.

I have never heard a convincing explanation for this from factor adherents who say that such periods of under-performance are expected in SCV from time to time. It's impossible to beat that argument. When you argue that in spite of 28 years of waiting you need to wait longer still--how much longer is not specified-at some point this becomes a bit hard to swallow for some. I wonder how one can retain such a strong sense of certainty about what is destined to happen in the future when it hasn't happened in real funds for 28 years. 28 years seems to me a long enough time period to demonstrate superiority if yours is reliably a long term winning strategy.

I got fed up with waiting and some months ago switched from VBR. Surely, I thought if anything is going to spur a powerful revival of SCV, my selling it should do the trick. Instead SCV tanked even more and value got so cheap relative to growth that I couldn't resist moving back just a few days ago. It is very likely therefore that SCV and V in general will continue to tank. My consolation is that TSM is 80% of my portfolio, so I already have considerable exposure to LCG tech darlings. I have convinced myself that getting some SCV now with different sector exposures relative to TSM adds diversification to my portfolio. That diversification and diversification from INTL has all been in the wrong direction for 10 years but I hope that at some point, it pays off. I also believe that excessive positive sentiment exists now in LCG tech darlings. Excesses in sentiment don't last forever. I don't see that change coming anytime soon however. My modest move back to SCV may be throwing good money after bad. Separating winning value stocks from value traps is very hard to do using reported parameters such as PB ,PE, PCF and will continue to be a challenge. At least I'm buying it on the cheap but who knows? It may get even cheaper.

As the years pass and my investing experience increases, I get less and less certain about the reliability of picking strategies for outperformance. TSM remains my core US holding and that has worked very well for me. I lean more toward Bogle's simple but profound wisdom than the complex market explanations offered by factor mavens. Still I can't stop doing some slight/modest tinkering with my portfolio.

Garland Whizzer

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:36 pm

SantaClaraSurfer wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:15 pm
Not seeing this. What am I missing.

Investor puts $15000 per year into a 401(k) from 2000-2020 w rebalancing and reinvesting dividends and the CAGR for 100% US is 23.5% versus 22.14% for 70/30 US/Int'l. What's the complaint? Those are both exceptional results.

(Sorry, if you click through you will have to add the 30% in Portfolio B since the link is too long.)

Definitely seems like there's some recency bias going on to me, since from 2000-2010 (half the duration), Int'l was ahead.

I mean, if you followed this logic in 2009, you might have missed out on a great decade for US equities.
+1000

You nailed it.
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by dziuniek » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:44 pm

Anyone else had to look up duodecade?

Heard it here first folks!

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by hisdudeness » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:45 am
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm
sfmurph wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:52 pm
The international (global ex-US) has now had a lost 12 years: from May 2008 to May 2020, the returns are effectively 0%, worse if you consider inflation and tax-drag. Here's a Portfolio Visualizer of ASWX, CWI and VEU, 3 different ETFs tracking non-US.

I do wonder what the US markets would look like without the big growth stocks.
I follow the Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond as recommended by Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett. We have a great thread going about it. The best part about this strategy is it will never be below average.
American exceptionalism and performance chasing running rampant in that thread.
But but but...Lostdog didn't you performance chase INTO international stocks about the same time that Abuss gave up on them?
And as it turned out, his decision was a more profitable one and your performance chasing decision, clearly to this point anyway, a bad decision.
Have you ever calculated what your balance would be if you'd stayed the course as a Jack Bogle recommended US only 2 fund portfolio?
That would be interesting, if you'd like to share it.
It was a diversification decision and it helps me sleep better at night. I never have to wonder what section of my portfolio will do better than the other. I just buy everything and accept the global return.

Atleast you admit to performance chasing, I'll give you that. It would suck for a young investor to go all US and all of a sudden revert to the mean months or a few years later. It's important for a young investor not to fall into the pit of xen$&# investing.

It's important to see for young investors that the old school club of performance chasing in and out of mutual funds is a thing of the past. Just buy the global haystack of equities and forget about it. Rick Ferri will agree.
You didn't answer my question, but you did manage to accuse me of performance chasing.
I don't know where that came from, but ouch.
If being 100% in US investments makes one a xenophobic performance chaser, then there are a whole lot of xenophobic performance chasers that are members here, as well as Bogle himself.
Here's a little green guy smacking his head: :oops:

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:09 pm

hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm
being 100% in US investments
Hi hisdudeness.

I've chosen to diversify internationally because I live and work in the US and have no plans to move elsewhere. So I feel a little diversification is ok. Even if the only value is currency diversification, as our economy is very interconnected with others today.

What do you think?

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:13 pm

spdoublebass wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:34 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:15 am
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:38 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:26 pm

Ten years is a blink of an eye in equity investing terms.
That depends on where each investor is in their journey.

That doesn't matter. What if an investor started with a US only index in 2001, gave up on it and switched to international in 2010? I find it hilarious how you guys think the US only index will not have a lost decade from now into infinity.
My main issue with the two fund thread is that people are not Staying The Course with their original portfolio decision.

In this video, Bogle is asked what should someone do if they already hold Emerging Markets. He then states it probably means they are cheaper now and that long term it will be ok. Stay the Course.

I do not believe Bogle would ever advocate to capitulate and not stay the course. His whole point is that staying the course is more important than the decision you make in what to invest in. When people use his name to justify not staying the course it just means they never heard his message in the first place.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/08/20/i ... bogle.html
I come to the opposite conclusion in my case. I own treasury bills and the S&P 500. It is in fact the only part of my portfolio since I started investing over 20 years ago that I have stayed the course with. I have fiddled with David Swensen portfolio from his book unconventional success, the permanent portfolio, the 3 fund, dividend portfolios, individual stocks, etc over the years. The one part through dot com, financial crisis and now Covid that I didn’t touch was my S&P 500 index fund. Ever.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by vineviz » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:21 pm

hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm

If being 100% in US investments makes one a xenophobic performance chaser, then there are a whole lot of xenophobic performance chasers that are members here, as well as Bogle himself.
Indeed, it would seem so.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:41 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:11 am
I could start a thread and call it "The Elon Musk Two Fund Portfolio". TSLA and Total Bond. What's the difference?
Confidence. To your bones. That’s what it all boils down to. If you do not have confidence in what you are investing real money in, you shouldn’t own it and if you do, you will sell if you do not at the worst time. I have had confidence in the S&P 500 since I first held it in 2000. I have bought and sold many things - including Tesla (bummer I sold it years ago!), but the one thing I haven’t has been my S&P 500 index fund (It has gone way down in expense ratio and has morphed into different share classes, but none the less, the S&P 500). This includes an almost 50% drawdown, the dot com bubble, international outperformance and now Covid. I do not understand how you can come to the conclusion this represents recency bias or performance chasing or of a certain age as I was investing in the S&P 500 when I first finished residency. To call it xenophobia considering my life story if you actually knew it would also be silly. I think VT is an elegant solution to diversification for many. Just not for me. Confidence is the underpinning of all investing. For you that’s owning everything including the kitchen sink. For me, it’s not.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by JBTX » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:45 pm

Past performance does not guarantee future results.....except for international equities.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by hisdudeness » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:49 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:09 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm
being 100% in US investments
Hi hisdudeness.

I've chosen to diversify internationally because I live and work in the US and have no plans to move elsewhere. So I feel a little diversification is ok. Even if the only value is currency diversification, as our economy is very interconnected with others today.

What do you think?
I think it does not matter what I think about how you invest your money.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by 000 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:50 pm

hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:49 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:09 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm
being 100% in US investments
Hi hisdudeness.

I've chosen to diversify internationally because I live and work in the US and have no plans to move elsewhere. So I feel a little diversification is ok. Even if the only value is currency diversification, as our economy is very interconnected with others today.

What do you think?
I think it does not matter what I think about how you invest your money.
Isn't that the whole point of this forum? :oops:

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by SantaClaraSurfer » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:57 pm

One additional point that I scratch my head over:

Why is the subtext of so many discussions that a Vanguard Target Date Fund AA somehow has it wrong?

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by hisdudeness » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:59 pm

000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:50 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:49 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:09 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm
being 100% in US investments
Hi hisdudeness.

I've chosen to diversify internationally because I live and work in the US and have no plans to move elsewhere. So I feel a little diversification is ok. Even if the only value is currency diversification, as our economy is very interconnected with others today.

What do you think?
I think it does not matter what I think about how you invest your money.
Isn't that the whole point of this forum? :oops:

I don't care how you invest, and you don't really care what I think.
Suit yourself.
Best wishes.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by sfmurph » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:32 pm

dziuniek wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:44 pm
Anyone else had to look up duodecade?

Heard it here first folks!
I did!

(I figured there was a dodecahedron / dozen word for 12 years, and I was happy to see that there was!)

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by 000 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:02 am

hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:59 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:50 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:49 pm
000 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:09 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:51 pm
being 100% in US investments
Hi hisdudeness.

I've chosen to diversify internationally because I live and work in the US and have no plans to move elsewhere. So I feel a little diversification is ok. Even if the only value is currency diversification, as our economy is very interconnected with others today.

What do you think?
I think it does not matter what I think about how you invest your money.
Isn't that the whole point of this forum? :oops:

I don't care how you invest, and you don't really care what I think.
Suit yourself.
Best wishes.
The reason I post here is because I want people to show me I'm wrong if I am.

Sorry you feel the way you do.

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by lostdog » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:49 am

I stated this in a different thread.

Every sector has it's day. That's why Jack said buy the haystack. Remember that some of the audience here are not true buy the haystack investors.

Just consider them noise and stay the course. If the comments from these people tempt you to take action on your portfolio, step back and maybe take a break from this forum. A true investor will have a stinker or two in their portfolio.

I call members out when they don't stay the course, advise other members to drop international and then make comments about staying the course, invest like Jack Bogle, buy the haystack and they don't follow their own advice. Newbies drop international because of recency bias and then jump into the two fund thread and high five each other. :oops:

Vanguard and many other large institutions recommend atleast 30 to 40% international. The old boys club on this site recommends at the most 20% which is practically nothing.
Last edited by lostdog on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by JoMoney » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:51 am

sfmurph wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:32 pm
dziuniek wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:44 pm
Anyone else had to look up duodecade?

Heard it here first folks!
I did!

(I figured there was a dodecahedron / dozen word for 12 years, and I was happy to see that there was!)
Confusingly, my assumption was that it meant 20 years, after looking it up, apparently it gets used as both 20 (two decades) and 12 years :oops: ... Likely because people (like me) commonly believe it meant 20 years, and language/definitions change to fit how people use it.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by abuss368 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:15 am

The Two or Three Fund Portfolio is an excellent choice in any market. I personally have no need for international and that lost decade.

The only portfolio that is right is the one that works for you!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

Post by Triple digit golfer » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:26 am

lostdog wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:49 am
I stated this in a different thread.

Every sector has it's day. That's why Jack said buy the haystack. Remember that some of the audience here are not true buy the haystack investors.

Just consider them noise and stay the course. If the comments from these people tempt you to take action on your portfolio, step back and maybe take a break from this forum. A true investor will have a stinker or two in their portfolio.

I call members out when they don't stay the course, advise other members to drop international and then make comments about staying the course, invest like Jack Bogle, buy the haystack and they don't follow their own advice. Newbies drop international because of recency bias and then jump into the two fund thread and high five each other. :oops:

Vanguard and many other large institutions recommend atleast 30 to 40% international. The old boys club on this site recommends at the most 20% which is practically nothing.
To add to this point, specifically the one that I bolded, I think the default recommendation should be a low cost target retirement or life strategy fund. If juggling multiple accounts with limited choices, like a 401k, or have tax considerations due to a taxable account, then a 3 fund portfolio equivalent mimicking a target fund is the next best thing.

Holding international should be the default recommendation. I don't know that any major institutions recommend zero international and nearly all recommend somewhere between 30-40%. In fact, when I started investing 13 years ago, Vanguard's target retirement fund had either 20 or 30% international equities. I don't remember which. I chose 30% largely because of the recommendations of Vanguard, their target funds, and intelligent people on this site who helped me out with similar recommendations.

Before the "where did that get you?" comments start, 13 years is a blip. My wife and I are 35 and likely only about 20% through our investing life cycle.

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