Here's my portfolio

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klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:00 am

vineviz wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:04 pm
For equities, my next step is to allocate the 82% between US stocks and international stocks. Again, I estimate the mix that will maximize equity diversification while minimizing costs. I settled on 60% US and 40% international as a nice round target.
are international stocks more costly? ERs on your international funds are very small and you get foreign tax credits.
your underweighting of international is surprising because you seem to like value factor. international stocks and currencies are undervalued compared to historical averages.
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:04 am

klaus14 wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:53 am
i guess you didn't go with VFMF alone because it's not as small cap loaded as SLYV?
That wasn't my primary rationale. It was a combination of track record and cost.

It's important to me that I see how an asset actually performs, so that I can form a solid expectation about how it will interact with the rest of my portfolio in the future. VFMF is barely more than a year old, and it felt prudent to avoid allocating too much capital to it until it had more history.

Also, at my brokerage SLYV is on the commission-free list whereas VFMF is not. There's enough cash flow in my accounts (bonds maturing, coupon and dividend payments, etc.) that it's useful for me to use at least a couple of low transaction fee funds so I can stay fully invested.

On the whole I think VFMF is a fine fund. There are no red flags, in my mind, just a little bit of "wait and see".
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:56 am

klaus14 wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:00 am
are international stocks more costly? ERs on your international funds are very small and you get foreign tax credits.
your underweighting of international is surprising because you seem to like value factor. international stocks and currencies are undervalued compared to historical averages.
Virtually all of my investable assets are in tax-deferred accounts, so no foreign tax credits for me (though it works out in the end anyway, I guess.

Also, in my mind I'm not very underweight in international because I am mentally accounting for iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB) as part of my equity allocation rather than the bond allocation. They are sovereign bonds but LEMB has had volatility that is much closer to equities than most fixed income, and is much more closely correlated with emerging markets equities (correlation = 0.75) than with broad international bond funds like BNDX (correlation = 0.19).

I think global equity weights are a useful benchmark, and a solid starting point for most investors. For me, though, the main goal is diversification and I'm fairly agnostic about where it comes from.

An investor restricting their portfolio to total stock market funds (e.g. VTSMX and VGTSX) would, indeed, realize the maximum diversification benefit from something close to global market weights of roughly 55/45 or so.

But an investor who has already diversified their US equity allocation (e.g. by overweighting SCV, tilting to other factors and/or sectors, etc.) will find that the vast majority of benefits from international diversification have already been achieved. The incremental benefit available from further international diversification is greatly diminished, in other words. It still helps, just not as much as if the US investments are mostly large cap blend funds.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

stan1
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by stan1 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:29 am

vineviz wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 9:23 am
The current actual holdings looks like this:

Code: Select all

21.8%	SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
15.6%	Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF Shares (VFMF)
12.3%	Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF)
11.1%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
10.5%	Individual Stocks
8.6%	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (EDV)
7.7%	iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
5.7%	Individual Bonds
3.5%	SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
3.1%	SPDR® Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL)
Vineviz, if you and your spouse were in your late 60s now and had chosen to stop working would this change? I remember you've told us most of your portfolio is in tax advantaged accounts so you'd be able to easily pivot to a modified drawdown strategy if that was your plan. I appreciate your inputs here. Always good to be challenged with new ideas.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:04 am

vineviz wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:39 am
columbia wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:43 am
What is your benchmark?
My goal is to match or exceed the return of Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 Fund (VTTHX), which roughly corresponds to my goal for when to retire.

My asset allocation isn't precisely the same as that fund, but I figure it's as reasonable a benchmark as any: not too easy a hurdle to clear, but not so high it prompts me to take on more risk than I should be taking on.
Fascinating!
Thanks for posting.


Curious.
If your goal is the above, then why not simplify to that on autopilot?

How many years has your portfolio been in this rough form?

Are some of these funds used because you have a limited number to choose from in various accounts?

thanks
j
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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:28 am

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:04 am
Curious.
If your goal is the above, then why not simplify to that on autopilot?

How many years has your portfolio been in this rough form?

Are some of these funds used because you have a limited number to choose from in various accounts?

1) Because I consider my portfolio to be more diversified than VTTHX, my expectation is that I can get a higher return for the risk that I'm taking. However, I want to hold myself accountable for all the investment decisions I make, and I view VTTHX as the default or base case: the return I'd get if I wanted to make NO decisions.

2) In very rough form, probably more than 10 years. But before mid-2018 it was very fragmented across IRAs at a brokerage with no online trading and multiple 401k plans from former employers. Basically a neglected mess. The overall asset allocation was pretty similar to what I have now, but the assets themselves were higher cost and less targeted. This portfolio took shape about 12 moths ago, with just some minor tweaks since then.

3) I still have one 401k with limited choices (very few index funds at all, and those are expensive) but most of the assets are at a brokerage where I could buy pretty much anything I want. The commission-free lineup is heavy on Invesco and SPDR ETFs, and I use those when they present a reasonable option, but I don't feel limited in anyway.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:38 am

stan1 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:29 am
Vineviz, if you and your spouse were in your late 60s now and had chosen to stop working would this change? I remember you've told us most of your portfolio is in tax advantaged accounts so you'd be able to easily pivot to a modified drawdown strategy if that was your plan. I appreciate your inputs here. Always good to be challenged with new ideas.
The only real significant change would likely be a higher fixed income allocation than we currently have. I expect that will still be mostly long-term bonds, but by that point we would probably include some long-term TIPS and not just long-term nominal Treasury bonds. It's possible I'd include some commodities with high inflation beta. Maybe.

For withdrawals I plan to just do the reverse of what we do now: take withdrawals from whichever asset class is overweight relative to my asset allocation target. For later years I might set up an individual bond ladder with TIPS to cover some portion of our core spending needs, but I don't expect to do that for another 10 years or so.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

YRT70
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by YRT70 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:16 am

vineviz wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 9:23 am
I've made a few minor changes to my portfolio since my last update, partly because some of my individual bonds were called and partly because I wanted to clean up a few investments that I wasn't entirely happy with.

The current actual holdings looks like this:

Code: Select all

21.8%	SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
15.6%	Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF Shares (VFMF)
12.3%	Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF)
11.1%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
10.5%	Individual Stocks
8.6%	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (EDV)
7.7%	iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
5.7%	Individual Bonds
3.5%	SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
3.1%	SPDR® Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL)
Thanks for sharing. Very interesting. I'm in the process of trying to build a factor diversified portfolio myself.

Did you calculate the loading to and significance of the factors for yours? if so, what came out?

Do you have tips for resources where I could learn more about building a factor diversified portfolio? So far I've read 3 of Larry's books (retirement, black swans, and factor investing).

james22
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by james22 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:44 am

If you don't mind, vineviz, I've tweaked so I can understand better. Please correct if you'd like.

5% US Large
15% US Multifactor
20% US Small Value
10% Utilities

10% Developed Large Value
10% Emerging Markets Large
10% Emerging Market Bonds

10% Extended Duration Treasury Bonds
5% Long Term Treasury Bonds
5% US Individual Bonds (corporates, munis)

So 80:20, factor/sector tilted and long duration.

Seems pretty Boglehead-like to me.

Edited to reflect the following post.
Last edited by james22 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 am

james22 wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:44 am
If you don't mind, vineviz, I've tweaked so I can understand better. Please correct if you'd like.

5% US Large
15% US Multifactor
20% US Small Value
10% US Individual Stocks (utilities, staples)

10% Developed Large Value
10% Emerging Markets Large
10% Emerging Market Bonds

10% Extended Duration Treasury Bonds
5% Long Term Treasury Bonds
5% US Individual Bonds (corporates, munis)

So 80:20, factor tilted and long duration.

Seems pretty Boglehead-like to me.
I think so too, or else I wouldn't be here. :wink:

FWIW, I've adjusted the individual stocks and they are now only small- and mid-cap utility stocks. They are selected at random from the utility holdings of the S&P indexes and equal-weighted, so it's a quasi-passive strategy: I'm not stock-picking them in the conventional sense, just trying to very roughly replicate the obscure S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight Utilities Index and S&P SmallCap 600 Equal Weight Utilities Index.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

james22
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by james22 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:10 am

Makes sense (utilities over staples), but why do you believe owning individual stocks worth the effort (versus a fund)?

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

james22 wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:10 am
Makes sense (utilities over staples), but why do you believe owning individual stocks worth the effort (versus a fund)?
First let me say that it’s entirely possible I’m trying to be too clever. I had no trouble finding a fund that I am very happy with in any other area

I wanted to boost my exposure to utility stocks, and I wasn’t satisfied with any existing funds. They were either too large-cap heavy (XLU, VPU) or too expensive (RYU, JHMU) for my tastes. PSCU is both very expensive and includes communication stocks that I didn’t want.

I was able to come up with a rules-based approach that, even with brokerage costs, was substantially cheaper than any ETF and has very low turnover.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

Sakura
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Sakura » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:38 am

Having joined the forum after your initial post, I was pleased to find this bumped to current so I could discover it.

Utilities really do serve as an excellent low correlation investment to the major us indexes. Much more so than many imagine. Although lately I perceive there's something of a dividend/low volatility bubble of sorts
(ironically alongside the big tech boom) with plunging interest rates and international conflicts brewing.

Would any of that change your view on utilities or do you think this phenomenon is mostly applicable to large/mega cap utilities that are tracking more closely with the big indexes?

I'm open to emerging markets but a lack of tax deferred space is making that challenging and I'm not sure taxable is the best home for EEM. Good for TLH though I guess.

I admire your sticking with bonds. Historically I know the correlation with stocks is low but do you think NIRP, if it comes here, would change that low correlation with stocks? At some point with no real coupon don't bonds become a greater fool sort of investment?

Energy and oil funds seem to truly be the outcasts of this bull. Their valuations in some cases seem very attractive with big names like Kolanovic saying value might make a big comeback. Tempting but not sure I'm ready to take the plunge. Small caps on the other hands I've been willing to pick up as they've already started pricing in a downturn.

Thanks for sharing your insights as your posts always add to the discussion.

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:17 pm

Sakura wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:38 am
Utilities really do serve as an excellent low correlation investment to the major us indexes. Much more so than many imagine. Although lately I perceive there's something of a dividend/low volatility bubble of sorts (ironically alongside the big tech boom) with plunging interest rates and international conflicts brewing.

Would any of that change your view on utilities or do you think this phenomenon is mostly applicable to large/mega cap utilities that are tracking more closely with the big indexes?
None of that shapes my perspective much, at least I don't think so.

Utilities have provided good diversification benefits over many decades, so my rationale for overweighting them has less to do with their valuations than with with their covariance characteristics.

That said, I do screen only utility stocks that are in the S&P 400/600 Value indexes. Plus, most low volatility and high dividend strategies own far more large caps than mid caps and small caps, plus the biggest funds tend to stay market neutral so they aren't piling into utilities necessarily.
Sakura wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:38 am
Historically I know the correlation with stocks is low but do you think NIRP, if it comes here, would change that low correlation with stocks.
At less than 20% of my portfolio, I tend not to fret too much over interest rates. If interest rates do continue to decline, that'll be great for my long-term bonds but probably not awesome for stocks. And any economic environment that brings interest rates back up will probably hurt my bond returns, but I would expect stocks to make up for it.

In short, I try very hard to set an asset allocation that is not influenced by anything that might show up on the front page of the Wall Street Journal.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

james22
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by james22 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:29 pm

Have you seen this thread viewtopic.php?t=275899, Sakura?

Nice utilities discussion.

Sakura
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Sakura » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:44 pm

james22 wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:29 pm
Have you seen this thread viewtopic.php?t=275899, Sakura?

Nice utilities discussion.
I had not seen it so thank you for the link :)

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:05 pm

vineviz wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

I wanted to boost my exposure to utility stocks, and I wasn’t satisfied with any existing funds. They were either too large-cap heavy (XLU, VPU) or too expensive (RYU, JHMU) for my tastes. PSCU is both very expensive and includes communication stocks that I didn’t want.
i wouldn't call 0.29% very expensive.
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm

klaus14 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:05 pm
vineviz wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

I wanted to boost my exposure to utility stocks, and I wasn’t satisfied with any existing funds. They were either too large-cap heavy (XLU, VPU) or too expensive (RYU, JHMU) for my tastes. PSCU is both very expensive and includes communication stocks that I didn’t want.
i wouldn't call 0.29% very expensive.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I suppose.

I couldn't personally couldn't justify the expense for a plain Jane sector index fund, especially since it wasn't purely focused on the sector I wanted. Even with $10 trades, I expect my DIY utility sleeve have an ER of around 0.07%/year on average not accounting for my time.

It's true that I'm probably saving less than $200/year but it's really no hassle.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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nedsaid
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:26 pm

vineviz wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:52 pm
Every once in a while I get asked for my personal portfolio. It changes a bit over time (I'm a tinkerer), and I've shared it in the past but usually in some other thread. Here it is for reference.

Please don't assume I'm recommending this portfolio to anyone, including you.

21.37% Vanguard US Multifactor ETF (VFMF)
17.38% SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
12.79% Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Div Yld Eq ETF (HDEF)
12.18% iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
9.30% iShares Edge MSCI Intl Size Factor ETF (ISZE)
8.48% Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV)
8.22% Individual Stocks
6.54% Individual Bonds
3.74% SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The individual stocks are mostly mid/small cap utility stocks (e.g. ATO,EE, HE, NJR, OGE, OGS, WTR) and consumer staples.

The individual bonds are a mix of corporate bonds and taxable municipal bonds (average duration about 9 years, which is dragged down by some bonds that are callable in the next year).

SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is actually a proxy for a CIT that's in a 401(k) plan. Virtually all the other assets are in Traditional IRAs.
Wow. You are the man. I think you have out-Swedroed Larry Swedroe and you might even be a bigger factor junkie than Random Walker. Wanted to point out that your individual stocks are really a collection of Low Volatility stocks, almost like you made your own Low Vol ETF. There is also overlap between High Dividend and Low Volatility. Don't want to start the dividend wars again but good to see another Boglehead who likes dividends. You also use Long US Treasuries which most of the time, save for the 1973-74 bear market, is an almost perfect hedge against stock bear markets.
A fool and his money are good for business.

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:39 pm

vineviz wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:53 pm
klaus14 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:05 pm
vineviz wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:50 am

I wanted to boost my exposure to utility stocks, and I wasn’t satisfied with any existing funds. They were either too large-cap heavy (XLU, VPU) or too expensive (RYU, JHMU) for my tastes. PSCU is both very expensive and includes communication stocks that I didn’t want.
i wouldn't call 0.29% very expensive.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I suppose.

I couldn't personally couldn't justify the expense for a plain Jane sector index fund, especially since it wasn't purely focused on the sector I wanted. Even with $10 trades, I expect my DIY utility sleeve have an ER of around 0.07%/year on average not accounting for my time.

It's true that I'm probably saving less than $200/year but it's really no hassle.
I guess one can automate this by creating a m1 finance pie. Can you share the list of stocks in your list?
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:19 am

klaus14 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:39 pm
Can you share the list of stocks in your list?
The universe of available stocks is created by taking all the utilities in the S&P 600 value and S&P 400 value indexes, plus the smallest five or six in the S&P 500 value index. If I was using something like M1 or a brokerage with free trades I'd probably just equal-weight the entire list. Right now that list is (in order of descending market cap):

Evergy, Inc (EVRG)
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)
Alliant Energy Corp (LNT)
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
NiSource, Inc (NI)
The AES Corporation (AES)
Aqua America, Inc. (WTR)
OGE Energy Corporation (OGE)
IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Allete, Inc. (ALE)
Spire Inc. (SR)
NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)
NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
PNM Resources, Inc. (Holding Co.) (PNM)
Avista Corporation (AVA)
American States Water Company (AWR)
California Water Service Group Holding (CWT)
El Paso Electric Company (EE)
South Jersey Industries, Inc. (SJI)
Northwest Natural Gas Company (NWN)

Because I have to pay for trades, I pseudo-randomly selected 11 to purchase in EW. I don't reinvest dividends and have very wide rebalance triggers, to minimize transactions. I also do a quick check of the news for each stock and avoid any that are in the process of a merger or acquisition (I think - but am not sure - that El Paso is the only one on that list in this situation.)

Of these, I currently own: AWR, WTR, ATO, HE, NJR, NI, NWE, OGE, OGS, SJI, & SR.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:26 pm

vineviz wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:19 am
klaus14 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:39 pm
Can you share the list of stocks in your list?
The universe of available stocks is created by taking all the utilities in the S&P 600 value and S&P 400 value indexes, plus the smallest five or six in the S&P 500 value index. If I was using something like M1 or a brokerage with free trades I'd probably just equal-weight the entire list. Right now that list is (in order of descending market cap):

Evergy, Inc (EVRG)
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)
Alliant Energy Corp (LNT)
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
NiSource, Inc (NI)
The AES Corporation (AES)
Aqua America, Inc. (WTR)
OGE Energy Corporation (OGE)
IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX)
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Allete, Inc. (ALE)
Spire Inc. (SR)
NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)
NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
PNM Resources, Inc. (Holding Co.) (PNM)
Avista Corporation (AVA)
American States Water Company (AWR)
California Water Service Group Holding (CWT)
El Paso Electric Company (EE)
South Jersey Industries, Inc. (SJI)
Northwest Natural Gas Company (NWN)

Because I have to pay for trades, I pseudo-randomly selected 11 to purchase in EW. I don't reinvest dividends and have very wide rebalance triggers, to minimize transactions. I also do a quick check of the news for each stock and avoid any that are in the process of a merger or acquisition (I think - but am not sure - that El Paso is the only one on that list in this situation.)

Of these, I currently own: AWR, WTR, ATO, HE, NJR, NI, NWE, OGE, OGS, SJI, & SR.
Thanks!
I created this M1 pie: https://m1.finance/QXuh1WvPh
I was meaning to try M1, i'll throw some small amount of money to to this pie.
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

rich126
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by rich126 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:02 pm

Just curious if you track your performance over the years?

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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:38 pm

rich126 wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:02 pm
Just curious if you track your performance over the years?
Not as well as I wish I had. There were a couple of years when I wasn't really tracking the investments myself very closely, and a change in brokerage left me without electronic access to old statements so I can't recreate it.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

rich126
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by rich126 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:05 pm

vineviz wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:38 pm
rich126 wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:02 pm
Just curious if you track your performance over the years?
Not as well as I wish I had. There were a couple of years when I wasn't really tracking the investments myself very closely, and a change in brokerage left me without electronic access to old statements so I can't recreate it.
Thanks. I wish I had. So I could see how badly (?) I did in my early years. For work I've had to track things more closely and was surprised that despite often carrying a good size amount of cash, my accounts exceeded the SP500 the last 6+ years. Unlikely to happen this year due to getting more and more defensive as I approach retirement. In my case most of my money is in roll over retirement plans so I can't add to it and it makes the calculations easier.

Anyhow, thanks for view of the portfolio

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:37 pm

vineviz wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:52 pm
Please don't assume I'm recommending this portfolio to anyone, including you.
I've always enjoyed reading your portfolio recommendations/critiques and was thinking about sending you a private message, but figured this thread may be a better place to ask your thoughts on my portfolio so others could enjoy as well.

I recently exited a variant of hedgefundie's adventure with a nice gain and wanted to simplify to a small-value tilted all equity portfolio, while also making some adjustments (modest increase to International allocation and move to small-value there). Idea would be to let this ride until my 35th birthday (~7 years) and then reevaluate, with the most likely next step being an introduction of intermediate and/or long-term treasuries, but no/minimal changes to the equity allocation.

My nominal portfolio could be best described as:
50% Total US (ITOT, VTI, or S&P500 funds)
30% International Small-value (currently at 50/50 FNDC and AVDV to get some exposure to different methodologies of SCV tilt and so I can hold FNDC in taxable)
20% US Small-value (targeting all of this in S&P600 value funds such as SLYV and VIOV)

In reality I have a small allocation of International in VTIAX (Total Int) via my 401k to get up to 30%, as well as some domestic small-value in VSIAX for the same reason.

Major item obvious to me is a lack of emerging market exposure, but I felt the heavy small-value developed market exposure was a pretty good diversifier on pare with holding Total International including EM, while potentially increasing expected return still and keeping the portfolio simple. A 5-6% overall holding in an EM fund (market weight) just didn't seem like it would move the needle much, and I am not sure I want to tilt to EM in the International portion much.

Appreciate any/all thoughts :). Thanks!

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:10 am

After a little break from the forum, I'm back and thought I'd record a few small changes I've made since the last update.

The current allocation looks like this:

Code: Select all

19%	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
16%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
15%	Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF)
14%	SPDR Port S&P 1500 Comps Stk Mkt ETF (SPTM)
12%	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF  (EDV)
9%	Individual Stocks
8%	iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
6%	Individual Bonds
There are three modest changes since last fall, two tactical and one strategic.

The first tactical change is that I replaced iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) with SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM), because SPEM is slightly cheaper and has not transaction fee at my brokerage. Otherwise, these funds provide virtually identical exposure to emerging markets.

The second tactical change is that I completely eliminated Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF (VFMF). The main reason was expense: I feel that I can get the size and value exposures more cheaply with SLYV (the monthly correlation of SLYV and VFMF is 0.98), and reducing my fund count by one makes portfolio management slightly more simple.

The strategic change was an upwards shift in my international equity allocation target, from 40% to 50%. This was, candidly, largely a reflection of my view on relative valuations (I think large cap international stocks remain cheap relative to large cap US stocks) but also partly a simplification of my IPS. Within equities I am now targeting 50% US, 25% ex-US developed, and 25% emerging markets. This was pretty close to where I was, but is a simpler heuristic.

Asset allocations are a little bit off target right now because of market volatility. I've rebalanced twice already this month, and because of employment-related account restrictions on the number of trades I can make each month I'll probably wait until then end of the month to rebalance again.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

azanon
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by azanon » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:46 am

Thoughts (Which might have already been covered):

>The target portfolio is the relevant one, not whatever you let it drift too. Since you said you made changes, is that your target portfolio?

>You could make out like a bandit if you dump that EDV onto someone else now. EDV is less efficient, and more expensive, than a vanilla LT Treasuries ETF, so I'd probably consider swapping that one out for a cheap LT Treasuries ETF, and harvest a bit of profit, so-to-speak, since a LT Treasuries ETF will have lower duration risk. I wouldn't worry so much about a potential barbell effect from EDV, such as what is attempted in risk parity, since your (more volatile) equities so greatly outweigh that position anyway.

james22
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by james22 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am

Welcome back, vinevez.

If you don't mind, I've again tweaked so I can understand better. Please correct if you'd like.

15% Total Stock Market
30% Small Value (including individual utilities)

15% International Value
15% Emerging Markets
10% Emerging Market Bonds

10% Extended Duration Treasury
5% US Individual Bonds (corporate, munis)


So 85:15, factor (and sector) tilted and long duration.


Any interest in changing the allocation to take advantage of opportunities? Do you consider some portion of the 25% to be dry powder?
Last edited by james22 on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

robertw477
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by robertw477 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:35 am

Effectively I have been doing Bogle theory with my index investments. I do not have anything in International right now. What I felt prior to doing international is that I felt (and still do) that if the US gets hammered, so does the rest of the world. I also thought if the world is doing well, so is the US. And based on that I expect US markets to outpace the International side of things. I know there has been some discussion of this previously. I also felt and still do that many US companies these days are international companies. Some make much of their profits overseas so why bother with the International indexes which have underperformed for many yrs.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:43 am

james22 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am
If you don't mind, I've again tweaked so I can understand better. Please correct if you'd like.

15% Total Stock Market
20% Small Value
10% Utilities
That's fair, though the utility stocks all effectively tilt towards the small- and mid-cap value style boxes. I treat them as part of my SCV allocation, though they do add some other factor exposures as well.
james22 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am
15% International Value
15% Emerging Markets

10% Emerging Market Bonds
Rightly or wrongly, I treat the emerging markets bonds as part of my equity allocation because of their currency exposure and volatility

My stock/bond allocation is on a glide path and right now the target bond allocation is 18%. The average duration on my individual bonds is over 10 years, so it's pretty much all long-duration at this point.

Overall I'd summarize my target allocation (with a little rounding) as:

18% long-term Treasuries
30% US small/mid value
20% ex-US value
20% emerging markets
12% US large cap core
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:53 am

azanon wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:46 am
>You could make out like a bandit if you dump that EDV onto someone else now. EDV is less efficient, and more expensive, than a vanilla LT Treasuries ETF, so I'd probably consider swapping that one out for a cheap LT Treasuries ETF, and harvest a bit of profit, so-to-speak, since a LT Treasuries ETF will have lower duration risk. I wouldn't worry so much about a potential barbell effect from EDV, such as what is attempted in risk parity, since your (more volatile) equities so greatly outweigh that position anyway.
The expense ratio for Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) is already extremely low, at 0.07%. For the amount of duration exposure it provides, it's as efficient as it gets.

VGLT is 25% cheaper, sure, but the duration is also 25% lower and right now I have no need to reduce duration. Heck, I'd buy 50-year Treasuries if they'd have decided to offer them.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

azanon
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by azanon » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:01 am

vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:53 am
azanon wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:46 am
>You could make out like a bandit if you dump that EDV onto someone else now. EDV is less efficient, and more expensive, than a vanilla LT Treasuries ETF, so I'd probably consider swapping that one out for a cheap LT Treasuries ETF, and harvest a bit of profit, so-to-speak, since a LT Treasuries ETF will have lower duration risk. I wouldn't worry so much about a potential barbell effect from EDV, such as what is attempted in risk parity, since your (more volatile) equities so greatly outweigh that position anyway.
The expense ratio for Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) is already extremely low, at 0.07%. For the amount of duration exposure it provides, it's as efficient as it gets.

VGLT is 25% cheaper, sure, but the duration is also 25% lower and right now I have no need to reduce duration. Heck, I'd buy 50-year Treasuries if they'd have decided to offer them.
Sorry, for some reason I was thinking EDV was 0.20% (I think I was thinking of LTPZ for some reason) - my mistake. So yeah, expense is not an issue. There's also liquidity/spreads comparison though (EDV being higher spread), but if you're buy-and-hold, guess that doesn't matter too much.

What I meant by efficiency, was just something we briefly discussed at another social media site, which is optimal efficiency is probably the IT treasuries, and stretching out all the way to those zeros, there's a price premium for being that far out on the yield curve. Now with my risk parity portfolio, I intentionally use EDV, and a lot of it (also with LTPZ), but I'm literally trying to match the risk of the stocks in the portfolio. But if that's not really the objective of a portfolio, then I'd probably try to strike a balance between something a little bit more efficient, but still low correlation to the stocks. Case-in-Point, i recall Larry Swedroe recommending (regular) LT Treasuries for a portfolio have 80% or more stocks, because the volatility of the stocks literally drown out the bond volatility.

It's not going to make a big difference, I'm just saying I think there's good reason that LT Treasury ETFS/Funds have billions and billions, and EDV only has 1.6 billion. It's definitely a specialty product.

james22
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by james22 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:17 pm

vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:43 am
Rightly or wrongly, I treat the emerging markets bonds as part of my equity allocation because of their currency exposure and volatility.
Sorry, I'd forgot that.

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:15 pm

vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:10 am
After a little break from the forum, I'm back and thought I'd record a few small changes I've made since the last update.

The current allocation looks like this:

Code: Select all

19%	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
16%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
15%	Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF)
14%	SPDR Port S&P 1500 Comps Stk Mkt ETF (SPTM)
12%	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF  (EDV)
9%	Individual Stocks
8%	iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
6%	Individual Bonds
There are three modest changes since last fall, two tactical and one strategic.

The first tactical change is that I replaced iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) with SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM), because SPEM is slightly cheaper and has not transaction fee at my brokerage. Otherwise, these funds provide virtually identical exposure to emerging markets.

The second tactical change is that I completely eliminated Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF (VFMF). The main reason was expense: I feel that I can get the size and value exposures more cheaply with SLYV (the monthly correlation of SLYV and VFMF is 0.98), and reducing my fund count by one makes portfolio management slightly more simple.

The strategic change was an upwards shift in my international equity allocation target, from 40% to 50%. This was, candidly, largely a reflection of my view on relative valuations (I think large cap international stocks remain cheap relative to large cap US stocks) but also partly a simplification of my IPS. Within equities I am now targeting 50% US, 25% ex-US developed, and 25% emerging markets. This was pretty close to where I was, but is a simpler heuristic.

Asset allocations are a little bit off target right now because of market volatility. I've rebalanced twice already this month, and because of employment-related account restrictions on the number of trades I can make each month I'll probably wait until then end of the month to rebalance again.
one difference is SPEM doesn't include South Korea.
I want South Korea in my overweight EM alloc because South Korean stocks are priced like EM (low multiples). If their multiples reach European levels that would be a nice gain.
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:52 pm

klaus14 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:15 pm
one difference is SPEM doesn't include South Korea.
I want South Korea in my overweight EM alloc because South Korean stocks are priced like EM (low multiples). If their multiples reach European levels that would be a nice gain.
You could very easily be right about South Korea, but I personally tend to file differences like this in the "too small to worry about" bucket.

Image
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:32 pm

vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:52 pm
klaus14 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:15 pm
one difference is SPEM doesn't include South Korea.
I want South Korea in my overweight EM alloc because South Korean stocks are priced like EM (low multiples). If their multiples reach European levels that would be a nice gain.
You could very easily be right about South Korea, but I personally tend to file differences like this in the "too small to worry about" bucket.

Image
If South Korea one day gets valued like a developed country, that correlation graph will change.
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm

vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:10 am
After a little break from the forum, I'm back and thought I'd record a few small changes I've made since the last update.

The current allocation looks like this:

Code: Select all

19%	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV)
16%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)
15%	Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF)
14%	SPDR Port S&P 1500 Comps Stk Mkt ETF (SPTM)
12%	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF  (EDV)
9%	Individual Stocks
8%	iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
6%	Individual Bonds
There are three modest changes since last fall, two tactical and one strategic.

The first tactical change is that I replaced iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) with SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM), because SPEM is slightly cheaper and has not transaction fee at my brokerage. Otherwise, these funds provide virtually identical exposure to emerging markets.

The second tactical change is that I completely eliminated Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF (VFMF). The main reason was expense: I feel that I can get the size and value exposures more cheaply with SLYV (the monthly correlation of SLYV and VFMF is 0.98), and reducing my fund count by one makes portfolio management slightly more simple.

The strategic change was an upwards shift in my international equity allocation target, from 40% to 50%. This was, candidly, largely a reflection of my view on relative valuations (I think large cap international stocks remain cheap relative to large cap US stocks) but also partly a simplification of my IPS. Within equities I am now targeting 50% US, 25% ex-US developed, and 25% emerging markets. This was pretty close to where I was, but is a simpler heuristic.

Asset allocations are a little bit off target right now because of market volatility. I've rebalanced twice already this month, and because of employment-related account restrictions on the number of trades I can make each month I'll probably wait until then end of the month to rebalance again.
Do you plan to own gold at some point? Why not?
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:25 am

klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm
Do you plan to own gold at some point? Why not?
I don't plan to, no, but I don't have a very strong opinion on the topic.

Small amounts of precious metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) would provide a marginal benefit to my portfolio in terms of diversification, but the expected real return of those assets is so low that the expense of the ETFs to hold them would capture most of it. For me, at least, it just doesn't seem worth the bother.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

klaus14
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by klaus14 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:03 pm

vineviz wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:25 am
klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm
Do you plan to own gold at some point? Why not?
I don't plan to, no, but I don't have a very strong opinion on the topic.

Small amounts of precious metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) would provide a marginal benefit to my portfolio in terms of diversification, but the expected real return of those assets is so low that the expense of the ETFs to hold them would capture most of it. For me, at least, it just doesn't seem worth the bother.
not trying to argue, but doesn't LTT have the same problem now with low expected real returns?
35% US, 20 ExUS Dev, 10% EM, 10% EM Bonds, 10% Gold, 10% EDV, 5% I/EE Bonds. 50% value tilt in stocks.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:51 pm

klaus14 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:03 pm
vineviz wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:25 am
klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm
Do you plan to own gold at some point? Why not?
I don't plan to, no, but I don't have a very strong opinion on the topic.

Small amounts of precious metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) would provide a marginal benefit to my portfolio in terms of diversification, but the expected real return of those assets is so low that the expense of the ETFs to hold them would capture most of it. For me, at least, it just doesn't seem worth the bother.
not trying to argue, but doesn't LTT have the same problem now with low expected real returns?
It's not nearly as bad. Let's say the expected return of gold is roughly equal to the 5-year Treasury yield, which is currently 0.33%. The cheapest gold ETF has an expense ratio of 0.17%, which knocks the net expected return down to 0.16%.

30-year Treasuries are yielding 1.45% and the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) has an expense ratio of just 0.07% (and I can buy new bonds at auction for basically nothing).

In my book the difference between 0.16% and 1.38% is not inconsequential, and by managing my bond duration I can be almost 100% confident of getting the 1.38%. Precious metals offer no such certainty.

I suppose that allocating 5% or 10% to an asset which has an expected return 100bps lower than my risk-free rate isn't likely to prove disastrous, but it's also not likely to be miraculous. So on the scale of exuberance, gold is currently a "meh" for me.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Steve Reading
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Steve Reading » Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:14 pm

vineviz wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:51 pm
klaus14 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:03 pm
vineviz wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:25 am
klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:28 pm
Do you plan to own gold at some point? Why not?
I don't plan to, no, but I don't have a very strong opinion on the topic.

Small amounts of precious metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) would provide a marginal benefit to my portfolio in terms of diversification, but the expected real return of those assets is so low that the expense of the ETFs to hold them would capture most of it. For me, at least, it just doesn't seem worth the bother.
not trying to argue, but doesn't LTT have the same problem now with low expected real returns?
It's not nearly as bad. Let's say the expected return of gold is roughly equal to the 5-year Treasury yield, which is currently 0.33%. The cheapest gold ETF has an expense ratio of 0.17%, which knocks the net expected return down to 0.16%.

30-year Treasuries are yielding 1.45% and the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) has an expense ratio of just 0.07% (and I can buy new bonds at auction for basically nothing).

In my book the difference between 0.16% and 1.38% is not inconsequential, and by managing my bond duration I can be almost 100% confident of getting the 1.38%. Precious metals offer no such certainty.

I suppose that allocating 5% or 10% to an asset which has an expected return 100bps lower than my risk-free rate isn't likely to prove disastrous, but it's also not likely to be miraculous. So on the scale of exuberance, gold is currently a "meh" for me.
Umh, wouldn't gold have a return close to inflation (or 0% real return)? So it would be similar to the spread between long term nominal and long term inflation-protected bonds, say 1.5% at the moment?

Of course, as you say, nowhere near as assured.
"... so high a present discounted value of wealth, it is only prudent for him to put more into common stocks compared to his present tangible wealth, borrowing if necessary" - Paul Samuelson

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:26 am

Steve Reading wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:14 pm

Umh, wouldn't gold have a return close to inflation (or 0% real return)? So it would be similar to the spread between long term nominal and long term inflation-protected bonds, say 1.5% at the moment?

Of course, as you say, nowhere near as assured.
I'm definitely no expert on gold, so my familiarity with the literature on it may be deficient. I've typically taken the view that the expected real return of gold is approximately 0%, but Barro and Misra (https://www.nber.org/papers/w18759.pdf) suggest that the the long-term real return of gold roughly matches the real risk-free rate (they use T-bills for Rf).

With negative expected real returns fort short-term Treasuries, expecting a real return of 0% on gold seems optimistic to me. But again, it's not my area of expertise.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Steve Reading
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Steve Reading » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:44 am

vineviz wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:26 am
Steve Reading wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:14 pm

Umh, wouldn't gold have a return close to inflation (or 0% real return)? So it would be similar to the spread between long term nominal and long term inflation-protected bonds, say 1.5% at the moment?

Of course, as you say, nowhere near as assured.
I'm definitely no expert on gold, so my familiarity with the literature on it may be deficient. I've typically taken the view that the expected real return of gold is approximately 0%, but Barro and Misra (https://www.nber.org/papers/w18759.pdf) suggest that the the long-term real return of gold roughly matches the real risk-free rate (they use T-bills for Rf).

With negative expected real returns fort short-term Treasuries, expecting a real return of 0% on gold seems optimistic to me. But again, it's not my area of expertise.
Umh. Mkay thanks!
"... so high a present discounted value of wealth, it is only prudent for him to put more into common stocks compared to his present tangible wealth, borrowing if necessary" - Paul Samuelson

hdas
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Post by hdas » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:06 am

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Last edited by hdas on Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Steve Reading
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by Steve Reading » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:19 am

hdas wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:06 am
vineviz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:43 am

Overall I'd summarize my target allocation (with a little rounding) as:

18% long-term Treasuries
30% US small/mid value
20% ex-US value
20% emerging markets
12% US large cap core
Vineviz,
One could argue (with some emprical evidence to back it up), that it's preferable to leverage a more risk efficient portfolio rather than just take more risk on equities. A simplified example is a 60-40 leveraged is more efficient than an 80-20. Do you disagree with that view?. Or are you leverage constrained for some reason? Thanks. H
Do my eyes deceive me? Is that u hdas?
"... so high a present discounted value of wealth, it is only prudent for him to put more into common stocks compared to his present tangible wealth, borrowing if necessary" - Paul Samuelson

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Post by hdas » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:26 am

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Last edited by hdas on Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vineviz
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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:33 pm

hdas wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:06 am
One could argue (with some emprical evidence to back it up), that it's preferable to leverage a more risk efficient portfolio rather than just take more risk on equities. A simplified example is a 60-40 leveraged is more efficient than an 80-20. Do you disagree with that view?. Or are you leverage constrained for some reason? Thanks. H
I do have some employer-related constraints on both leverage and the number of transactions I can make per month. As a result, although I suppose I could concoct a plan to implement leverage it'd be unnecessarily complex — and expensive – and (IMHO) only marginally beneficial for someone at my point in their lifecycle.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by caklim00 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:32 pm

Curious how your portfolio is looking these days.

For perspective mine is essentially*
25% Large Cap International (401k ACWI options)
18.75% AVDV (Avantis SCV Dev)
6.75% DFEVX (DFA EM Value)
20% PSSIX (S&P 600)
20% AVUV/SLYV (US SCV)
10% Individual Megacap
45% Intermediate Treasuries (via Futures)/-45% Cash

* Have some long term gains in some VTI, VEU, VBR but this amounts to <5% so I just lumped it into the allocation above. I think this is about where I want things given 401k constraints, but I am evaluating the futures contracts given current interest rates.

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Re: Here's my portfolio

Post by vineviz » Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:53 pm

caklim00 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:32 pm
Curious how your portfolio is looking these days.
It's not much changed. The only real notable difference since last report is that I slowly started to move some of the nominal bonds into TIPS.

Current portfolio looks like this:

Code: Select all

27%	Small cap US value	(e.g. SLYV, PSCE, utilities)
21%	Emerging markets	(e.g. SPEM, LEMB)
20%	Developed markets	(e.g. HDEF)
14%	Large Cap US stock	(e.g. SPTM)
10%	Individual Bonds	(e.g. munis, TIPS, corporate)
8%	Long-term Treasuries	(e.g. EDV, LTPZ, SPTL)
The individual bonds have an average duration of 14 years or so. One bond is likely to be called this month, so when I find a replacement for it the duration might creep up modestly.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

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