Jags4186 wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:56 pm
Valuethinker wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:27 am
Elysium wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:15 am
Don't see it becoming a leader in sales until they produce a sub $30k car that functions well, something that can match the Camrys and Corollas of the world. I wouldn't buy a $50k car that is so small as Model 3 with so limited range. Too little value to me for the price. We are far far away from EVs becoming main stream. Not with Gasoline at these prices. I just filled premium for $2.30 at Costco in my large $55k SUV yesterday.
That said, I am all for EV, our other car is a plug-in Prius which we purchased close to $20k with all discounts in. I would buy a Model 3 or Y for sub $30k price if offered today, no more. There is a price to value ratio for the cost conscious car buyer, for those who simply wants to own a Tesla to get associated with a name brad perhaps it doesn't matter, but that will only make it a niche market.
In the words of the James Bond villain "the world is not enough". There is a world outside the USA and in particular Europe & Japan where distances tend to be shorter and the environmental urgency is greater. In fact if Tesla were a Japanese car company I am sure the EV market would be much more developed there.
Gasoline is probably more expensive than in the USA in every developed country. Even in middle income & less developed countries, it is at least as much (with the exception of oil producing countries).
I agree re EVs & price point. But I have also been totally wrong so far. EVs (Tesla) have come in at the high end of price & performance, and ate the market. I expected EVs to come in at the low end performance/ price, and gradually take over the market from below.
The stock terrifies me. Both in its valuation, its financial fundamentals, the company's tendency to slip deadlines, and the retail enthusiasm for the company. Also in the short squeezes.
But the company has been very successful.
If distance and environmental concerns were that important then Japan and Europe would have developed electric cars long ago.
This is a classic chicken-and-egg technology. No one will trust an electric car without the infrastructure. No one will build the infrastructure without the demand.
One factor in both Europe & Japan is the power of the domestic auto industry. What banking is as a lobby group in the UK, automotive companies are in Germany - no speed limits on certain autobahns, etc. Japan also has a huge car industry.
Industry incumbents tend not to be adopters of new technology - the EV is a radical departure in drivetrain etc from existing vehicles.
But we are at a number of important tipping points:
- countries like the UK & Netherlands are seriously discussing stopping sale of new petrol-engined cars post 2030 - it is already the case that this will happen in the UK by 2035. As more countries commit to Net Zero, this will become an increasing driver of demand
- given European fuel prices, the crossover point for Total Cost of Ownership has been reached between EVs & conventional engined cars. EVs are still more expensive but have lower lifetime costs
So you've got the push to build the infrastructure, and you've got the demand. The migration will be quite fast.
Anecdotally I had probably only seen 1-2 EVs in London (other than UPS vans) up to about 4 years ago. In the last 2 years I have lost count of the number - particularly BMW i3s (perhaps because of their distinctive "Tron" shape, I recognise them more?). Teslas are rare, still - but I have seen a few. It's happening despite all kinds of problems with the charger infrastructure, etc.
There are also some large scale hydrogen projects being planned in Europe (see The Green Recovery, below). That does open up the route to Toyota's preferred technology - hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles. I have been a sceptic, but I could see how they could take over in commercial vehicles, large lorries, intercity coaches etc. Once again a chicken-and-egg problem being solved.
I am not as clued up on Japan but Japan basically imports 100% of its oil. Efficiency in energy use is a national fetish. When Japan decides to go for EVs, the changeover can be incredibly rapid (country the size of California, 50%+ mountainous, 100m population etc).
PM 2.5 particles and below in size are the new frontier of urban air pollution. The knowledge of the health hazards is growing by leaps and bounds. Automobile exhaust is 20-40% of the problem. EVs are a way of cracking that. So that will become another driver (and an important influence on public opinion - we are literally choking ourselves).
I could see a big part of The Green Recovery plans in Europe being EV charging infrastructure. The political & the economic forces are aligned, for once.