Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Locked
User avatar
Topic Author
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9152
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:42 am

Wade D. Pfau, Ph.D., CFA will be my next guest on the Bogleheads on Investing podcast.

Dr. Pfau is a Professor of Retirement Income for the American College of Financial Services and the Director of Retirement Research for McLean Asset Management, as well as the author of Insights & Research for Lifetime Financial Planning for the Retirement Researcher. He has written three books on retirement planning and personal finance.

If you have a question that would be of general interest to the Boglehead community, please ask it below. Time permitting, Bogleheads questions will be asked during the interview.

Rick Ferri
Your Host
Last edited by Rick Ferri on Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

User avatar
Nate79
Posts: 6159
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Delaware

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Nate79 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:47 am

Who fund's Wade Pfau's research and how does it affect his opinion about the benefits of one product over another?

Why does he continue to push high cost products like annuities and permanent life insurance instead of low cost index funds?

FYI - you may want to edit your title of the thread, his last name is misspelled.

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 13549
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by nedsaid » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:53 am

I eagerly await this podcast, Dr. Pfau is always interesting.

I would like to hear Dr. Pfau's comments regarding sequence of returns risk for retirees and near retirees and how to set up a life-long stream of income from a retirement nest egg.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Mr.BB
Posts: 1279
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:14 am

What percent of your savings should be in bonds when starting retirement(but not ready for SS for a few years) to create a SWR and what would his glide path toward increased equity holdings look like going forward in retirement?
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

Mr.BB
Posts: 1279
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:15 am

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:53 am
I eagerly await this podcast, Dr. Pfau is always interesting.

I would like to hear Dr. Pfau's comments regarding sequence of returns risk for retirees and near retirees and how to set up a life-long stream of income from a retirement nest egg.
+1
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

User avatar
Harry Livermore
Posts: 426
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:32 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Harry Livermore » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:24 am

Wow, Rick, awesome. Looking forward to it. Kudos for having interesting guests!
BTW, check the spelling in the title... :happy
Cheers

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1550
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by WoodSpinner » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:33 am

Rick,

Can’t wait — should be a great Podcast.

Lots of interesting questions in this thread on his Long View podcast, viewtopic.php?t=313475

- I would love to hear more of his thinking on implementing a Bond Tent in Retirement. During the LongView podcast he didn’t seem to be committed to it as a strategy—instead made it seem like an interesting analytical result.

- Why does he think the upcoming years will be worse than the last 80-90 and the 4% Rule of Thumb won’t work
- He recommends Whole Life and Annuities (non SPIA) and I am wondering what type of Retiree he feels they are appropriate for?

reln
Posts: 361
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:01 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by reln » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:42 am

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:42 am
Wade D. Pfau, Ph.D., CFA will be my next guest on the Bogleheads on Investing podcast.

Dr. Pfau is a Professor of Retirement Income for the American College of Financial Services and the Director of Retirement Research for McLean Asset Management, as well as the author of Insights & Research for Lifetime Financial Planning for the Retirement Researcher. He has written three books on retirement planning and personal finance.

If you have a question that would be of general interest to the Boglehead community, please ask it below. Time permitting, Bogleheads questions will be asked during the interview.

Rick Ferri
Your Host
Has Wade Pfau included stable value funds in his asset\product allocation research on efficient income frontier? And what if any difference does that have on the optimal allocations?

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 14843
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by HomerJ » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:11 am

How does he explain how poorly the consensus 10-year predictions from 2011 turned out? (predictions that he used to give advice in his books)

Is he willing to consider if the models are missing some key variables? Or does he consider his models still be to highly accurate and it was just a 1 in 100 event?
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 5531
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:35 am

you might want to change the title of this post. his name is spelled Pfau, not Phau.

also ask him if there was any conflict of interest in having an insurance company (pacific life) sponsor his research:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=320308#p5374292
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 19532
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:58 am

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:47 am
Who fund's Wade Pfau's research and how does it affect his opinion about the benefits of one product over another?

Why does he continue to push high cost products like annuities and permanent life insurance instead of low cost index funds?
To add to those, why does he assume 1% AUM fees and high expense ratios for holding stocks but assumes "actuarially fair" annuities when comparing the two?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

slowbutsteady
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:42 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by slowbutsteady » Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:43 am

Very timely as I was ruminating over the implications of his paper about Anuity+WL on our estate planning outlook. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=320308

Questions for Dr Pfau
1. Can he be more specific on they types of people this strategy be suitable for? In order words, does this expand the set of audiences who could benefit from WL in their estate planning beyond the 1-2% we generally believe should use WL
2. Why use high investment costs in models and not more more conservative and increasing accessible rates (like 0.3%)? This not only acknowledes the trend towards lower fees but also gives more credence to his mostly thought provocking analyses?
The tortoise wins every time I read that story.

User avatar
Horton
Posts: 723
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:53 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Horton » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:54 pm

For a DIY accumulator and decumulator, what’s the simplest approach Dr. Pfau would recommend to save for retirement and then use retirement assets to fund retirement spending?

petulant
Posts: 1496
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:09 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by petulant » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:05 pm

Could you ask him to comment on the following paper he wrote? He argues that for most Americans, the best strategy for retirement income is annuitizing 90% of income and then taking actuarially informed withdrawals from a stock-heavy portfolio to supplement. He also argues that the best execution for this strategy is to create bridge income while delaying SS, then to take SS + RMDs for the rest of retirement.

http://longevity.stanford.edu/wp-conten ... %20SCL.pdf

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 4711
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Stinky » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:10 pm

slowbutsteady wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:43 am
Very timely as I was ruminating over the implications of his paper about Anuity+WL on our estate planning outlook. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=320308

Questions for Dr Pfau
1. Can he be more specific on they types of people this strategy be suitable for? In order words, does this expand the set of audiences who could benefit from WL in their estate planning beyond the 1-2% we generally believe should use WL
2. Why use high investment costs in models and not more more conservative and increasing accessible rates (like 0.3%)? This not only acknowledes the trend towards lower fees but also gives more credence to his mostly thought provocking analyses?
+1, especially on #1
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

YRT70
Posts: 556
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:51 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by YRT70 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:59 pm

The fact that an insurance company sponsored his research is interesting. I hope you bring it up Rick. I'm curious how he responds to that.

Sola Scriptura
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:23 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Sola Scriptura » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:03 pm

What is the best way to determine if annuitization of any percentage of a portfolio is the optimal solution for a retiree? Is there a net worth level at which annuitization would no longer be optimal?

marcopolo
Posts: 3174
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by marcopolo » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:23 pm

Why should readers trust his studies any more than tobacco industry sponsored studies on cigarette safety, or oil industry sponsored studies on carbon pollution?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

User avatar
Uncorrelated
Posts: 806
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:16 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Uncorrelated » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:13 am

Can he comment on his continued use of glidepaths and "sequence of returns risk", instead of the dynamic programming approach used by Gordon Irlam? It's quite obvious that glidepaths are always suboptimal and failure probability ("SORR") metrics don't reflect actual investment behavior. I don't understand why some researchers continue to write papers that make such assumptions.

For reference see Floor and Upside Investing in Retirement without Annuities or more papers here.
Last edited by Uncorrelated on Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

bck63
Posts: 1232
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by bck63 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:23 am

......
Last edited by bck63 on Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

afan
Posts: 5012
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:01 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by afan » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:35 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:58 am
Nate79 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:47 am
Who fund's Wade Pfau's research and how does it affect his opinion about the benefits of one product over another?

Why does he continue to push high cost products like annuities and permanent life insurance instead of low cost index funds?
To add to those, why does he assume 1% AUM fees and high expense ratios for holding stocks but assumes "actuarially fair" annuities when comparing the two?
Actually, he assumes high AUM and high ER for funds but the BEST quotes for annuities. Why not compare the best annuities to an investment fund with no AUM fee and expense ratio under 5 basis points?
We don't know how to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, and we don't know anyone that does know either | --Swedroe | We assume that markets are efficient, that prices are right | --Fama

TravelforFun
Posts: 2112
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:05 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:40 am

I always get excited when I see the 'Bogleheads on Investing Podcast' logo pops up on the top of my podcast library signaling a new podcast from Rick Ferri.

TravelforFun

User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 14738
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by White Coat Investor » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:21 am

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:47 am
Who fund's Wade Pfau's research and how does it affect his opinion about the benefits of one product over another?

Why does he continue to push high cost products like annuities and permanent life insurance instead of low cost index funds?

FYI - you may want to edit your title of the thread, his last name is misspelled.
I'd like to hear his explanation specifically about that paper on whole life that the insurance agents trot out every time the discussion comes up. The copy I can find now online says it wasn't funded by a life insurance company but my recollection is that was not the case for the first one. Here's a quote from his Forbes article about it, but I can't find the actual paper any more:
I have completed a new whitepaper for OneAmerica, "Optimizing Retirement Income by Combining Actuarial Science and Investments," which looks at how life insurance fits into the picture with investments and income annuities for a retirement income plan. Because this research is sponsored by an insurance company, I take special care in the whitepaper to explain my methods and assumptions as clearly as possible, so that readers can potentially challenge my conclusions.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2 ... d18c0c37ab

I'd also like to hear about why he advocates for such ridiculously low SWRs instead of a simple "adjust as you go" strategy a la Taylor Larimore. Is it just because it's impossible to publish a bunch of papers saying "just adjust your spending as you go and if you're really against the wall, buy a SPIA"?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

marcopolo
Posts: 3174
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: Dr. Wade Phau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by marcopolo » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:23 pm

afan wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:35 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:58 am
Nate79 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:47 am
Who fund's Wade Pfau's research and how does it affect his opinion about the benefits of one product over another?

Why does he continue to push high cost products like annuities and permanent life insurance instead of low cost index funds?
To add to those, why does he assume 1% AUM fees and high expense ratios for holding stocks but assumes "actuarially fair" annuities when comparing the two?
Actually, he assumes high AUM and high ER for funds but the BEST quotes for annuities. Why not compare the best annuities to an investment fund with no AUM fee and expense ratio under 5 basis points?
Because it would make it tougher to achieve the conclusion that the sponsors are paying for?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

User avatar
Nate79
Posts: 6159
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Delaware

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Nate79 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:02 pm

Well this podcast is certainly going to be an interesting one. Hopefully it can keep its Boglehead title and not the anti-Bogleheads approach that Pfau has been stinking up other recent podcasts with.

User avatar
packer16
Posts: 1406
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:28 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by packer16 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:11 pm

Dr. Pfau has integrated many different types of investments into his retirement income framework. Many retirees are continuing to generate part time or consulting income beyond when the leave their primary job. How does this fit into Dr. Pfau's framework of retirement income (essential income) and sustainable withdrawal rates? Is there any data/studies on now long this type of part time/consulting income can be generated in retirement? There may be also some interesting tradeoffs folks can make from consulting/part-time work, reduced spending & sustainable withdrawal rates.

Packer
Buy cheap and something good might happen

Mr.BB
Posts: 1279
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Mr.BB » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm

On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 19532
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Mr.BB
Posts: 1279
Joined: Sun May 08, 2016 10:10 am

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Mr.BB » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:28 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
thanks for the update
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

tealeaves
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:21 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by tealeaves » Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:44 pm

How does one put his recommendations into practice when taking into account legacy objectives? Is whole life his preferred option?

Looking forward to this.

csm14
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:21 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by csm14 » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:01 pm

How does he feel about annuities and TIPS as it relates to your retirement portfolio?

User avatar
geerhardusvos
Posts: 795
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:20 pm
Location: heavenlies

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by geerhardusvos » Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:56 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:42 am
Wade D. Pfau, Ph.D., CFA will be my next guest on the Bogleheads on Investing podcast.

Dr. Pfau is a Professor of Retirement Income for the American College of Financial Services and the Director of Retirement Research for McLean Asset Management, as well as the author of Insights & Research for Lifetime Financial Planning for the Retirement Researcher. He has written three books on retirement planning and personal finance.

If you have a question that would be of general interest to the Boglehead community, please ask it below. Time permitting, Bogleheads questions will be asked during the interview.

Rick Ferri
Your Host
My one request is that you actually ask him some of these good and tough questions! Call him out in a nice BH way! Will be an interesting episode
VTSAX and chill

User avatar
Topic Author
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9152
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Rick Ferri » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:12 am

geerhardusvos wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:56 pm
My one request is that you actually ask him some of these good and tough questions! Call him out in a nice BH way! Will be an interesting episode
In other words, interview Wade the same way I interviewed every other guest. :wink:

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

User avatar
geerhardusvos
Posts: 795
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:20 pm
Location: heavenlies

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by geerhardusvos » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:38 am

Rick Ferri wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:12 am
geerhardusvos wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:56 pm
My one request is that you actually ask him some of these good and tough questions! Call him out in a nice BH way! Will be an interesting episode
In other words, interview Wade the same way I interviewed every other guest. :wink:

Rick Ferri
You got it! :sharebeer
VTSAX and chill

User avatar
sergeant
Posts: 1567
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 11:13 pm
Location: The Golden State

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by sergeant » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:50 pm

Is he still a proponent of reverse mortgages? Under what circumstances? Who funded his reverse mortgage research?
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.

petulant
Posts: 1496
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:09 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by petulant » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:00 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
Could you share any links on this?

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1550
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by WoodSpinner » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:02 pm

petulant wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
Could you share any links on this?
Dr. Pfau discuses this briefly in this Podcast on the Long View

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/54

This was a big take away for me!

WoodSpinner

petulant
Posts: 1496
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:09 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by petulant » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:03 pm

WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:02 pm
petulant wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
Could you share any links on this?
Dr. Pfau discuses this briefly in this Podcast on the Long View

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/54

This was a big take away for me!

WoodSpinner
Thanks. Looks like the concern is that their Monte Carlo models weren't taking into account the possibility of a interest rates climbing back up.

User avatar
WoodSpinner
Posts: 1550
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:15 pm

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by WoodSpinner » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:19 pm

petulant wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:03 pm
WoodSpinner wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:02 pm
petulant wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Sat Jul 18, 2020 4:19 pm
On your last podcast Dr.Malkiel, said that retirees would be better off with a higher stock to bonds ratio. I know Dr. Pfau believes in having more bonds and less equity the first couple of years of retirement in case of recession/large market pullback and then later on add more stocks to a retirees portfolio. How does one figure out the best starting point at retirement (in lieu of simply having a large amount of savings) and what research supports his point of view?
He and Kitces have, TMK, backed off of the 'bond tent' (a.k.a. rising equity glide path) recommendation as subsequent research indicated that the historic benefits of the approach were minimal to non-existent.
Could you share any links on this?
Dr. Pfau discuses this briefly in this Podcast on the Long View

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/54

This was a big take away for me!

WoodSpinner
Thanks. Looks like the concern is that their Monte Carlo models weren't taking into account the possibility of a interest rates climbing back up.
I think he also acknowledged that emotionally it could be difficult to ramp up your AA after retirement. It’s a great Podcast well worth a listen. Can’t wait to hear the interview Rick hosts with Dr. Pfau.

WoodSpinner

User avatar
Topic Author
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9152
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by Rick Ferri » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:07 pm

The podcast has been posted>

Episode 024: Dr. Wade Pfau, host Rick Ferri

Enjoy!
Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

tomd37
Posts: 3298
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:39 pm
Location: Middle Tennessee

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by tomd37 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:29 pm

Very interesting podcast. Thanks for recording and posting it.
Tom D.

marcopolo
Posts: 3174
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by marcopolo » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:06 pm

Thanks for doing the interview. I have to say it was a bit disappointing that it sounded like a softball commercial from an insurance company.
No questions about who is funding his research and what influence that might have on his studies. No questions when he mentioned his simulations about why he assumes very high fees for investments but relatively low fees for annuities. Making light-hearted fun of the "chicken dinner" circuit does not seem like a serious critical look at insurance as a possible retirement solution.

The funniest part was when he stated that he was not in the business of selling insurance.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 64566
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau will be my next Bogleheads podcast guest

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:07 pm

Comments should be posted in Rick's new thread: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

(Thread locked to redirect responses.)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

Locked