guyinlaw wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am
Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.
What is your definition of "optimistic" treasury rates? Not sure what that means.
Few weeks ago 10y rate went up to 0.9% (bond futures dropped) when SP500 went past 3200. Normally stocks and bonds are supposed to move in the opposite direction.
Right now interest rate is stuck under 0.7% even when SP500 rises.
I am guessing Stocks are pushed higher by Robinhood/sports betting/day traders but interest rates are not much effected by them. There is also Fed which plans to hold zero rate for a long time, so that has some effect.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle
guyinlaw wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am
Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.
What is your definition of "optimistic" treasury rates? Not sure what that means.
Few weeks ago 10y rate went up to 0.9% (bond futures dropped) when SP500 went past 3200. Normally stocks and bonds are supposed to move in the opposite direction.
Right now interest rate is stuck under 0.7% even when SP500 rises.
I am guessing Stocks are pushed higher by Robinhood/sports betting/day traders but interest rates are not much effected by them. There is also Fed which plans to hold zero rate for a long time, so that has some effect.
Correlation between VOO and VSIGX is -0.41. Negative, yes, but fairly weak. So hard to read much into a few weeks of movement.
guyinlaw wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am
Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.
European stocks dropped with U.S. futures on Friday...after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy...The friction at the ECB highlights the risk to markets should promised stimulus measures fall short. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
“There are no answers, only choices.” ― Stanislav Lem, Solaris
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL.
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier.
This is no longer an accurate reflection of the size of the holding but it is still a trial part of my portfolio. A 10% gain in a week is certainly good fortune, but it easily could have been a 10% loss too.
TimeLord, I think you're treading on dangerous ground here... I understand you finally retired? (Congrats!). But it appears you're a bit bored, and now you're dipping your toe into day-trading.
Not a good idea.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL.
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier.
This is no longer an accurate reflection of the size of the holding but it is still a trial part of my portfolio. A 10% gain in a week is certainly good fortune, but it easily could have been a 10% loss too.
TimeLord, I think you're treading on dangerous ground here... I understand you finally retired? (Congrats!). But it appears you're a bit bored, and now you're dipping your toe into day-trading.
Not a good idea.
I appreciate the counsel.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
HomerJ wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:16 am
TimeLord, I think you're treading on dangerous ground here... I understand you finally retired? (Congrats!). But it appears you're a bit bored, and now you're dipping your toe into day-trading.
It is the addicted who get in trouble. There is a difference between investing and trading, keep the two separate.
Oh oh, I signed up for the free Morningstar and they sent me an email.
"You don’t have to be a pro to run the perfect screen"
Am I getting in over my head??
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL.
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier.
This is no longer an accurate reflection of the size of the holding but it is still a trial part of my portfolio. A 10% gain in a week is certainly good fortune, but it easily could have been a 10% loss too.
As of this morning I am out of TQQQ.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL.
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier.
This is no longer an accurate reflection of the size of the holding but it is still a trial part of my portfolio. A 10% gain in a week is certainly good fortune, but it easily could have been a 10% loss too.
As of this morning I am out of TQQQ.
I'm building up a tolerance to its volatility. The first time I held I made a 1% return. The second time I made a 11% return. This is my third time. I bought around 6/23. (My timing for purchasing is terrible.) I'm currently up 11% in it, and I'm not ready to sell yet. I am seeing the VXN come up. It's hovering around 30. I prefer it to be in the 20 range before holding it long term.
I'm holding this up to a 20% return before selling again. That would give me a good return for the year in this ETF along with the other sales.
This is five percent of my portfolio, and it keeps my belly engaged:)
The bubonic plague is a bacterial infection; it is easily cured with antibiotics. It is the viral desires that are still the problem. I'm going back to the we are all getting rich thread, that makes me happy.
rockstar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:34 pm
I'm building up a tolerance to its volatility. The first time I held I made a 1% return. The second time I made a 11% return. This is my third time. I bought around 6/23. (My timing for purchasing is terrible.) I'm currently up 11% in it, and I'm not ready to sell yet. I am seeing the VXN come up. It's hovering around 30. I prefer it to be in the 20 range before holding it long term.
I'm holding this up to a 20% return before selling again. That would give me a good return for the year in this ETF along with the other sales.
This is five percent of my portfolio, and it keeps my belly engaged:)
If you trade in a taxable arraignment short term capital gains are a killer.
J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:49 pm
If you trade in a taxable arraignment short term capital gains are a killer.
I have it split 50/50 between my IRA and taxable.
The short term capital gains tax hurts, but the returns are so high that even after taxes its still a good return. I will feel better about holding it long term with a VXN in the 20 range, not the 30 range.
The bubonic plague is a bacterial infection; it is easily cured with antibiotics. It is the viral desires that are still the problem. I'm going back to the we are all getting rich thread, that makes me happy.
Don't stray away to far. POTUS is getting ready to announce orders against China.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
jason2459 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:17 pm
Don't stray away to far. POTUS is getting ready to announce orders against China.
The biggest kill joys are the profit taking day traders who bring down the market in the last 15 minutes. That is like taking candy away from a baby. It makes me sad.
jason2459 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:17 pm
Don't stray away to far. POTUS is getting ready to announce orders against China.
The biggest kill joys are the profit taking day traders who bring down the market in the last 15 minutes. That is like taking candy away from a baby. It makes me sad.
The kids must still be recovering from the weekend.
Nothing to see here in this thread today.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
My move out of foreign stocks lost me less; I guess that's good. It's like the Mets making it to .500, not a win but it could be worse.
Larry's TRBCX -0.98%
Vanguard's VXUS -1.38%
RayKeynes wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:17 am
Any reason for the drop?
Some might say that the better than anticipated jobless report is leading market participants to believe that there will be less favorable action from the Fed and the government, resulting in more pessimistic views of the future.
But no one really knows. Not even the talking heads. Probably especially the talking heads.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
RayKeynes wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:17 am
Any reason for the drop?
Some might say that the better than anticipated jobless report is leading market participants to believe that there will be less favorable action from the Fed and the government, resulting in more pessimistic views of the future.
But no one really knows. Not even the talking heads. Probably especially the talking heads.
Isn't that funny? Job news was better than expected, but therefore the reaction by the Fed is worse than expected, so the market drops.
Not that this is necessarily what happened, but it's a good theory and very possible.
RayKeynes wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:05 pm
I actually tend to believe that it does not matter what the news is. It just matters what the sentiment around market participants is.
Bad news is good news for some stocks, more closings mean stay at home stocks do better. It takes 24/7 dedicated high speed trading bots to keep up. I'll settle of an alpha of 1.00 minus three basses points.
invstar wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:32 pm
Did a lump-sum deposit of 160k yesterday. Hope it comes back by Monday.
I can't tell when people are being tongue in cheek around here. Presuming you're not...what matters is the price you buy and the price you sell. It doesn't matter what the price is on Monday unless you're selling on Monday. That's the theory at least. I realize it's hard to think this way in practice.
I can say that when I bought my house, I didn't worry about any change in market value of the house a day later. Even to this day I don't keep track of the current market value. I don't care because I know I'm not going to sell now, so the price I'd get if I did is meaningless.
If you were in fact being playfully tongue in cheek, then I do apologize for the unneeded impromptu lecture.
“There are no answers, only choices.” ― Stanislav Lem, Solaris
Hendrik Bessembinder> the top performing 4% of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire US stock market since 1926 |
The other 96% of stocks collectively did not do better than 90dayT-bills
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:43 pm
I am calling the Nasdaq top, it won't go above 10,600. Why? Just watched a bearish Rob Arnott interview
It seems your calls for the last few months have been, shall we say, less than stellar.
But, I do admire your consistency. Perhaps, you will be correct this time.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
RayKeynes wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:17 am
Any reason for the drop?
There are so many moving parts in the world that any market movement can't be pinned on one thing. I am surprised this questions keeps coming up and even more so that folks try to answer it.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" |
|
-The Richest Man in Babylon
RayKeynes wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:17 am
Any reason for the drop?
Check the most recent headline on MarketWatch for a possible reason.
If the headline doesn’t line up with what’s currently happening in the market, then it’s something else. Maybe the opposite of the headline.
Who knows?
Thank you, that's a good strategy and one which I plan on abiding by, except I'm not going to look at MarketWatch, just gonna pound my head against the wall, which is pretty much the same thing.
“There are no answers, only choices.” ― Stanislav Lem, Solaris
Arnott is baffling with B.S. Why didn't he just say the market will be up 11.3% in 10 weeks?
And NASDAQ is above 10,600. Don’t these people feel any shame maintaining a image that they know what the market is going to do? Poor newbies like Forrester just get sucked in repeatedly
Arnott is baffling with B.S. Why didn't he just say the market will be up 11.3% in 10 weeks?
And NASDAQ is above 10,600. Don’t these people feel any shame maintaining a image that they know what the market is going to do? Poor newbies like Forrester just get sucked in repeatedly
Perhaps Forrester is having sport with the topic. That happens quite a bit on the Wide World of the Web.
Arnott is baffling with B.S. Why didn't he just say the market will be up 11.3% in 10 weeks?
And NASDAQ is above 10,600. Don’t these people feel any shame maintaining a image that they know what the market is going to do? Poor newbies like Forrester just get sucked in repeatedly
Perhaps Forrester is having sport with the topic. That happens quite a bit on the Wide World of the Web.
Apparently they Arnott seeing the Forrester for the trees.
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify. Then ignore the noise!
