My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

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steve321
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My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Following my successful investment that I have documented in real time here:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=258102
and which paid very handsomely, 8-) :sharebeer :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag I am recording my next intuition. I will be making 2 large investments this week, one in gold because of its attractive properties in the coming paradigm shift, and one in the stock Zoom, because of the changing way in which work will be carried out in future.
1 million pound sterling in each.
Please feel free to comment.
Disclaimer
Please note that this is not investing advice for anyone. I am not a professional investor nor a financial advisor and I am not in anyway advising anyone to follow this course. I have been very successful in the past with my investments I reported here (see link above) but past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by happyisland »

It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by tvubpwcisla »

Seems like a logical move and the stars could be aligning for a scenario to play out greatly in your favor. Hope it works out for you. The last one certainly did!

:sharebeer

:moneybag
Stay invested my friends.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Godot »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
Very big of you, Steve. Thank you for sharing your intuition. Sounds like a winning formula.
Estragon: I can't go on like this. | Vladimir: That's what you think. | ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
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steve321
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Godot wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:04 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
Very big of you, Steve. Thank you for sharing your intuition. Sounds like a winning formula.
Pleasure. 8-) I am happy you find it inspiring. Like my mentor Ray Dalio I go into meditation and sometimes I get some cool ideas coming up from my subconscious mind into my conscious mind.
It gives me great happiness to share them with other investors, in case they may find them of any use.
Please read my disclaimer above however. It is to be found at the end of my OP.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by sergeant »

I read your other thread. I couldn't find where you actually invested in your two stock picks. You said that you were thinking about it. Congratulations if you actually pulled the trigger. How much are you up? Have you sold? Around here you will get much better feedback if you tell us what you did near real time.

I don't expect many here to tell you that concentrated bets are optimal for portfolio management but you seem like a swing for the fences sort. Good luck and keep us updated.
AA- 20+ Years of Expenses Fixed Income/The remainder in Equities.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by MFD »

I don't care if index funds are the best solution, only that they will meet my needs in retirement. Clearly not everyone can hugely outperform the market, so I would not want to rely on a strategy that required me to do so. If you are able to do it, that's great, but I don't see why you expect a horde of Bogleheads to follow your intuition. For me a simple portfolio of broad market index funds is the best approach.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by typical.investor »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
Go for it! Seems like a sure thing! What could go wrong? Enjoy your early retirement!

For me, it’s a huge time sink that I don’t want to get in to.

We all know there are some with a talent to outperform. The trick is do do it long term. Keep going and announce your trades so people actually believe you.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by sergeant »

OP, on May 24th you posted that you had 5% of your portfolio in gold and had anxiety about that holding. Did you dump it? What makes you so confident now? 5% seems to be about half a million dollars based on some of your other posts, did you increase the amount of gold owned? How do you own it? What did you pay to purchase it? The title says "My Next Move" so I'm confused due to your other posts.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by dukeblue219 »

I gotta say... I have never had a work meeting on Zoom. That's PURELY anecdotal, but in my experience it's only "social distant happy hours" on Zoom and all the work meetings are Webex or Microsoft Teams. Microsoft especially has a huge leg up on business adoption with Outlook already ubiquitous.

You're awfully convinced Zoom is the big winner going forward in work from home.... Hope that pays off for you.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

sergeant wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:08 pm I read your other thread. I couldn't find where you actually invested in your two stock picks. You said that you were thinking about it. Congratulations if you actually pulled the trigger. How much are you up? Have you sold? Around here you will get much better feedback if you tell us what you did near real time.

I don't expect many here to tell you that concentrated bets are optimal for portfolio management but you seem like a swing for the fences sort. Good luck and keep us updated.
OK I will record in real time when I buy gold and Zoom this week, with the price and everything. Meanwhile my Amazon stock is up 42% whilst Alphabet is 'only' up 21% since. I am selling Alphabet but keeping Amazon, might even buy more. They will own the world IMO. Will document my decisions in real time.
But please remember, this should not be taken as advice. I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by mmcmonster »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm[...]Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
I'll take a nibble: My concern isn't with your anti-Boglehead philosophy. My concern is that $2M is a lot of money for most of the people on this forum. It's likely a lot of money for you as well.

If you are markedly up on your last big investment, do you need to take the risk of this move? If so, why? If not, have you considered that you may have a gambling problem?

Or do you not consider putting the lion's share of your wealth in two stocks a risky move?
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

sergeant wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:19 pm OP, on May 24th you posted that you had 5% of your portfolio in gold and had anxiety about that holding. Did you dump it? What makes you so confident now? 5% seems to be about half a million dollars based on some of your other posts, did you increase the amount of gold owned? How do you own it? What did you pay to purchase it? The title says "My Next Move" so I'm confused due to your other posts.
Hi sergeant, I guess you refer to my post following report by hedge fund manger Odey that gold ownership might be banned? That tread was terminated so I do not know whether I am allowed to comment. Suffice it to say that I am now reassured that that danger is not imminent.
I own some bullion and an ETP tracking gold price, but I will be making my next move by investing in an ETP (SGLP). Again, not financial advice.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Steve Reading »

Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by CardioMD »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
To instill an ounce of doubt?

Attempting to change another investor’s behavior by creating doubt in their current plan sounds like investing advice to me.
“The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.” -Jack Bogle
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

mmcmonster wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm[...]Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
I'll take a nibble: My concern isn't with your anti-Boglehead philosophy. My concern is that $2M is a lot of money for most of the people on this forum. It's likely a lot of money for you as well.

If you are markedly up on your last big investment, do you need to take the risk of this move? If so, why? If not, have you considered that you may have a gambling problem?

Or do you not consider putting the lion's share of your wealth in two stocks a risky move?
I did not consider it risky. Why? Because Amazon is an incredible company. Jeff Bezos I consider to be a business genius. In the UK where I live there are boring tobacco companies, banks etc. they seem risky to me, because I don't see them going anywhere. Have you any experience with Amazon? Have you been dissatisfied with them? Many times when I went out shopping I felt dissatisfied for one reason or another, and I often thought 'this company will not prosper in the log term, because you get a much better experience at Amazon'. These days I buy basically everything from Amazon (though it's partly because of Covid 19 too). So Amazon does not seem risky to me. All those boring and mediocre companies that don't seem to have a future are risky IMO.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by surfstar »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:22 pm But please remember, this should not be taken as advice. I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
And my brother always wins at Blackjack on his Vegas trips. Sounds like you're both geniuses.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

CardioMD wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
To instill an ounce of doubt?

Attempting to change another investor’s behavior by creating doubt in their current plan sounds like investing advice to me.
I am not telling anyone what to do. I am encouraging everyone to think for themselves. And if my example can be an inspiration, if by showing how by following my intuition I was able to greatly outperform the market can inspire anyone to become a better investor, then I rejoice.
But please do not copy me, follow your own intuition and your talent. You can do it! And if your intuition tells you to stick to index funds, then that's all right too, I respect that too! Whatever works for the individual investor. The universe is full of gigantic opportunities, let us all seize them and live according to our talents and our various temperaments and appetites for risk.
Namaste.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by core4portfolio »

All the best :)
I went small portion into SHOP and TTD both were up 115% and 85%
However my exposure is very limited
I wonder what percentage of your portfolio going inside ?
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by MotoTrojan »

Little late to Zoom. Good luck.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Trader Joe »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:22 pm
sergeant wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:08 pm I read your other thread. I couldn't find where you actually invested in your two stock picks. You said that you were thinking about it. Congratulations if you actually pulled the trigger. How much are you up? Have you sold? Around here you will get much better feedback if you tell us what you did near real time.

I don't expect many here to tell you that concentrated bets are optimal for portfolio management but you seem like a swing for the fences sort. Good luck and keep us updated.
OK I will record in real time when I buy gold and Zoom this week, with the price and everything. Meanwhile my Amazon stock is up 42% whilst Alphabet is 'only' up 21% since. I am selling Alphabet but keeping Amazon, might even buy more. They will own the world IMO. Will document my decisions in real time.
But please remember, this should not be taken as advice. I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
Best of luck. I will also keep watch. I think Zoom and Amazon are great choices.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

surfstar wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:41 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:22 pm But please remember, this should not be taken as advice. I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
And my brother always wins at Blackjack on his Vegas trips. Sounds like you're both geniuses.
Thanks man, after all whether I am a genius or not is irrelevant. What counts is what DW thinks. Happy wife, happy life. 8-) 8-) 8-) :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by livesoft »

Would you mind lending me a small million please?
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Trader Joe wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:46 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:22 pm
sergeant wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:08 pm I read your other thread. I couldn't find where you actually invested in your two stock picks. You said that you were thinking about it. Congratulations if you actually pulled the trigger. How much are you up? Have you sold? Around here you will get much better feedback if you tell us what you did near real time.

I don't expect many here to tell you that concentrated bets are optimal for portfolio management but you seem like a swing for the fences sort. Good luck and keep us updated.
OK I will record in real time when I buy gold and Zoom this week, with the price and everything. Meanwhile my Amazon stock is up 42% whilst Alphabet is 'only' up 21% since. I am selling Alphabet but keeping Amazon, might even buy more. They will own the world IMO. Will document my decisions in real time.
But please remember, this should not be taken as advice. I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
Best of luck. I will also keep watch. I think Zoom and Amazon are great choices.
What about gold. Do you agree with that too? I have been a bit worried about the risk of governments banning its ownership, but I am more relaxed about that now, and I am pretty bullish.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by happyisland »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
What I'm curious about is, given the huge number of places you could have posted your undocumented bragging about supposed short-term market outperformance, why would you choose bogleheads? Jack Bogle's personal philosophy is in direct "intelligent disagreement" with what you have posted. It almost seems like are trolling a bit here. If you're not, please post your trades in real time so we can know we're dealing with the next Ray Dalio.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:47 pm Would you mind lending me a small million please?
Like my mentor Ray Dalio says (quoting a poet) if you give a man a fish, he will eat once, but if you teach a man how to fish, he will eat for the rest of his life.
You can do it; you might want to look up transcendental meditation too, perhaps that could be inspiring to you; that's how I get my insights.
Namaste
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:49 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:58 pm
happyisland wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:45 pm It seems like you understand that this type of speculation is antithetical to the purpose and underlying philosophy of the bogleheads forum. My question is, why are you posting this here?
For 2 reasons.
First, to instill an ounce of doubt in open minded Bogleheads. If, as I documented above, I was able to huuuugely outperform the market, :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar :dollar 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) perhaps index funds are not the best solution?
Second, because my mentor Ray Dalio has taught me to look for thoughtful disagreement. He has encouraged me to seek knowledgeable people who disagree, in order to thrash out and seek the truth. Should anyone intelligently disagree with my intuition, I will give their argument serious thought and I am open to reconsider.
What I'm curious about is, given the huge number of places you could have posted your undocumented bragging about supposed short-term market outperformance, why would you choose bogleheads? Jack Bogle's personal philosophy is in direct "intelligent disagreement" with what you have posted. It almost seems like are trolling a bit here. If you're not, please post your trades in real time so we can know we're dealing with the next Ray Dalio.
As I mentioned above in answer to another question, I will be posting my trades in real time starting from these investments planned for this week.
I respect J Bogle for his integrity. This is one of the reasons I want to engage in intelligent discussions on this forum, dedicated to his work, his insights and his philosophy.
Namaste.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by mmcmonster »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:35 pmHave you any experience with Amazon? Have you been dissatisfied with them? Many times when I went out shopping I felt dissatisfied for one reason or another, and I often thought 'this company will not prosper in the log term, because you get a much better experience at Amazon'. These days I buy basically everything from Amazon (though it's partly because of Covid 19 too). So Amazon does not seem risky to me. All those boring and mediocre companies that don't seem to have a future are risky IMO.
Actually, I've been buying from Amazon.com pretty much from their beginning. I've had little issues with them the first few years.

The last couple years, I've had increasing concerns about buying from them. In particular, I have increasing difficulty discerning who I am buying from. Amazon, Inc. makes it purposely obscure on Amazon.com (or .co.uk) whether you are buying from them or from the Amazon Marketplace.

There's a lot of crud sold on the Amazon Marketplace. Third party sellers selling stuff at a significant markup from the original sellers main websites, scammers selling knock-off or stolen goods, and goods whose warranties have expired.

It's gotten to the point that I will not buy anything electronic from Amazon.com, since there's no guarantees on what I'm getting. A few years ago I bought my son a Nintendo 3DS. The battery wouldn't hold a charge after a couple months. Another time I bought a USB stick. Worked fine, until I tried to store something more than half the size of the device. Turned out it was a counterfeit that reported the wrong size of the device to the OS.

While I do think Amazon has a lot of business opportunities, I also think they're going into crowded fields and that they're losing some of their brand strength from their original brand: Amazon.com.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by lostdog »

I thought mediation was a tool to not take the ego seriously...
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by arsenalfan »

These are educational for all, please do post the trade execution data (date, investment vehicle, amount).

Your Alphabet and Amazon trades were great indeed, if you actually did them in Sept 2018. Personally I have no need to take that much risk to get to my end goals, but it is highly educational to learn through others' experience.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by 4nursebee »

Why gold? Where is the growth?

Why Zoom, can you explain why they can grow more, justify the price? What about the company plan and leadership?

ZM CEO sold ALL of his shares. Not a boat I would get in.
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index245
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by index245 »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:51 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:47 pm Would you mind lending me a small million please?
Like my mentor Ray Dalio says (quoting a poet) if you give a man a fish, he will eat once, but if you teach a man how to fish, he will eat for the rest of his life.
You can do it; you might want to look up transcendental meditation too, perhaps that could be inspiring to you; that's how I get my insights.
Namaste
Ray Dalio should call you for advice!

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ray-dalio-f ... mic-crash/
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steve321
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:56 pm I thought mediation was a tool to not take the ego seriously...
I thought too, before I visited some monasteries. There I saw monks with huuuge egos, living like royalty, enjoying a devotion and submission from their followers that I as seen nowhere else (compared to them, the politicians or the cardinals I had met can be described as humble). So I realized that the idea of abandoning the ego is a lie. Perhaps in America you have more knowledge of meditation as practiced by lay teachers. Is it even conceivable to describe Sam Harris as not taking his ego seriously?
So all the stuff about the ego is a lie.
Anyway, to get back to finance, it has helped me be successful, as it has helped my mentor Ray Dalio.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by supalong52 »

Even if Zoom were a good pick, haven't you missed the boat? I think the market knows about Zoom and has reacted appropriately. Buying Zoom in January on the other hand would have been prescient.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

mmcmonster wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:56 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:35 pmHave you any experience with Amazon? Have you been dissatisfied with them? Many times when I went out shopping I felt dissatisfied for one reason or another, and I often thought 'this company will not prosper in the log term, because you get a much better experience at Amazon'. These days I buy basically everything from Amazon (though it's partly because of Covid 19 too). So Amazon does not seem risky to me. All those boring and mediocre companies that don't seem to have a future are risky IMO.
Actually, I've been buying from Amazon.com pretty much from their beginning. I've had little issues with them the first few years.

The last couple years, I've had increasing concerns about buying from them. In particular, I have increasing difficulty discerning who I am buying from. Amazon, Inc. makes it purposely obscure on Amazon.com (or .co.uk) whether you are buying from them or from the Amazon Marketplace.

There's a lot of crud sold on the Amazon Marketplace. Third party sellers selling stuff at a significant markup from the original sellers main websites, scammers selling knock-off or stolen goods, and goods whose warranties have expired.

It's gotten to the point that I will not buy anything electronic from Amazon.com, since there's no guarantees on what I'm getting. A few years ago I bought my son a Nintendo 3DS. The battery wouldn't hold a charge after a couple months. Another time I bought a USB stick. Worked fine, until I tried to store something more than half the size of the device. Turned out it was a counterfeit that reported the wrong size of the device to the OS.

While I do think Amazon has a lot of business opportunities, I also think they're going into crowded fields and that they're losing some of their brand strength from their original brand: Amazon.com.
I do not like Market place, I agree. I bought some supplements, like vitamins etc, and I am a bit worried about their quality actually. However, it is pretty clear to me, on Amazon.co.uk whether a product comes from amazon or Amazon Marketplace
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

index245 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:03 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:51 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:47 pm Would you mind lending me a small million please?
Like my mentor Ray Dalio says (quoting a poet) if you give a man a fish, he will eat once, but if you teach a man how to fish, he will eat for the rest of his life.
You can do it; you might want to look up transcendental meditation too, perhaps that could be inspiring to you; that's how I get my insights.
Namaste
Ray Dalio should call you for advice!

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ray-dalio-f ... mic-crash/
Any great teacher would only be too happy if their student does better than them. However, it will be a long time before I get to the level of Ray (assuming I ever do). The man is a genius. And, to paraphrase Mozart in the magic flute, not only is he a genius, but he is also a human being, a great one at that. Love you Ray!
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Jags4186 »

I love living vicariously through others. You made some great bets last time. I hope this next time it will be extremely profitable as well!

I gather you are a UK investor, so I’m not sure what tax laws you face. In the United States gold is taxed differently than equities. Something to think about when making that investment if it is similar in the UK.

I wish you best of luck. What is your exit strategy? If they go up, how far up before you sell? If they go down, how long until you capitulate?
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Jags4186 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:13 pm What is your exit strategy? If they go up, how far up before you sell? If they go down, how long until you capitulate?
I prefer to play it by hear, as I go along. My plan for gold is to keep it for at least a decade, during which the paradigm shift should play out.
I shall be documenting my moves here in real time.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Steve Reading wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
why are you laughing, if I may ask? I am the one who's laughing, since my Amazon stock in particular has done quite a lot better than the market thank you very much.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Gufomel »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:21 pm
Steve Reading wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
why are you laughing, if I may ask? I am the one who's laughing, since my Amazon stock in particular has done quite a lot better than the market thank you very much.
Can you expound on what paradigm shift you’re expecting?
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:26 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:21 pm
Steve Reading wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
why are you laughing, if I may ask? I am the one who's laughing, since my Amazon stock in particular has done quite a lot better than the market thank you very much.
Can you expound on what paradigm shift you’re expecting?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-y ... ray-dalio/
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by softmax »

It's your money so nobody has the right to agree or disagree.
Also, we don't know how much 1M means to you. If it's 1M out of 1B, I'd treat the market as Vegas and have fun.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Dottie57 »

Go for it. Nothing that could possibly go wrong with your choices,
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by steve321 »

Dottie57 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:33 pm Go for it. Nothing that could possibly go wrong with your choices,
there's always a risk - with index funds too.
Success does not bring happiness. In fact, happiness IS success. | 'There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.' Oscar Wilde
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by 7eight9 »

I don't know enough about Zoom to comment on its attractiveness as an investment. It has become popular enough to garner an article in the New York Times about satorial choices people make when using it --- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/busi ... shirt.html.

I like gold especially all that is going on in the world today. The one thing that I did find disturbing was an article in today's South China Morning Post --- Kingold Jewelry secures US$2.8 billion in loans with gilded copper bars, in latest fraud that embarrasses China, irks US https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... ted-copper I hope that JP Morgan Chase does a better job verifying authenticity.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by SnowBog »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:22 pm Meanwhile my Amazon stock is up 42% whilst Alphabet is 'only' up 21% since.
...
I might be just lucky, though DW thinks I am a financial genius. 8-) 8-) 8-)
I bought CCL on 4/2 which even with being down today is up over 101%. Did that make me an investing genius too?

No. It makes me lucky. (And the only reason I bought 100 shares was for the "shareholder" perks, which I may never get to use.)

My concern for you is the "success" of your picks is only going to empower your thinking that you are a "stock picking genius". And when you realize you aren't, it will be very detrimental to your wealth, and your "happy wife"...
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by Goal33 »

I am holding my gold position for now... 14 ct gold wedding ring - it has appreciated quite a bit since I got it 2 years ago. I feel that if I sold out of the position it might cost me 50% of my portfolio even though the gold holding is less than 1/10th of a percent of my portfolio. Funny how that works.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by typical.investor »

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:29 pm
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:26 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:21 pm
Steve Reading wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
why are you laughing, if I may ask? I am the one who's laughing, since my Amazon stock in particular has done quite a lot better than the market thank you very much.
Can you expound on what paradigm shift you’re expecting?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-y ... ray-dalio/
I don't buy that paradigm shift.

We have a massive reduction in demand, demographic winds against us, and social changes that would seem to be moving things away from the expenses of big city living. I'm not buying the inflation is imminent story except for maybe food which is having some production trouble.

I think Dalio is more likely creating fear about equities to take advantage of their low price than about giving useful advice to people.

I strongly prefer equities particularly EM, real estate and value stocks to help if inflation does hit as opposed to gold. In a total meltdown, what value does gold have? Everyone is going to melt it down, dilute and make it's use as a currency unreliable. It''ll happen with all precious metals. The idea that they will somehow serve as currency seems like a unreliable, not thought through fantasy to me.

History I believe shows that this has been the case.

In a total meltdown, guns, medicine, bunker air filtration systems, food, water etc are what will have value. Not useless diluted "precious" metals that you can't really use.
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Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

Post by typical.investor »

mmcmonster wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:56 pm
steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:35 pmHave you any experience with Amazon? Have you been dissatisfied with them? Many times when I went out shopping I felt dissatisfied for one reason or another, and I often thought 'this company will not prosper in the log term, because you get a much better experience at Amazon'. These days I buy basically everything from Amazon (though it's partly because of Covid 19 too). So Amazon does not seem risky to me. All those boring and mediocre companies that don't seem to have a future are risky IMO.


The last couple years, I've had increasing concerns about buying from them. In particular, I have increasing difficulty discerning who I am buying from. Amazon, Inc. makes it purposely obscure on Amazon.com (or .co.uk) whether you are buying from them or from the Amazon Marketplace.

There's a lot of crud sold on the Amazon Marketplace. Third party sellers selling stuff at a significant markup from the original sellers main websites, scammers selling knock-off or stolen goods, and goods whose warranties have expired.
Yeah, I agree fakes are an issue. I have had several purchases that turned out to be fakes...

Also, there is the lawsuit by third party sellers. What's the analysis on how that will impact business?
Last edited by typical.investor on Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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