U.S. stocks in free fall

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7eight9
Posts: 1057
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:44 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am
Gonna be a long hot summer. With about 15% unemployment.
Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 1:10 pm
A talking head just reminded me; sell in May and go away. My how time flies.
Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:51 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:33 pm
Blue456 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:34 pm
Forester wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:58 pm
Cases are spiking and it's summer, October could see another lockdown.
Things are going to go back to normal eventually.
Our retirement accounts will look very very differently if it takes 1 year vs. 10 years to get back to normal.
I think during investment lifetime (as opposed to just accumulation phase), one should expect at least one or more of such periods.

TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC » Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:52 pm

Blue456 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:51 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:33 pm
Blue456 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:34 pm
Forester wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:58 pm
Cases are spiking and it's summer, October could see another lockdown.
Things are going to go back to normal eventually.
Our retirement accounts will look very very differently if it takes 1 year vs. 10 years to get back to normal.
I think during investment lifetime (as opposed to just accumulation phase), one should expect at least one or more of such periods.
Not going to happen.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 90-100% VTSAX piled high and deep, 0-10% VIGAX tilt, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:04 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:44 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am
Gonna be a long hot summer. With about 15% unemployment.
Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 1:10 pm
A talking head just reminded me; sell in May and go away. My how time flies.
Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
Still seems like dumb advice to me

2016-05-02 to 2016-11-01 1.0% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-11-01 8.9% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-11-01 -3.9% loss
2019-05-01 to 2019-11-01 3.3% gain
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

3 of the 4 last years were positive. So far this year is positive (but we have a long way to go)

My physics teacher in high school taught me a very good lesson about the scientific method.

Archimedes thought about it for a while, and said heavy objects fall faster than lighter objects. Makes sense, right? For 1600 years, everyone just assumed Archimedes was right, because he was smart.

But It's a pretty easy thing to test, and Galileo tested it by dropping two objects of different weights. And they hit the ground at the same time.

So when someone tells you "Sell in May and go away"... test it.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:28 pm

I removed an off-topic interchange regarding the coronavirus. As reminder, the main intent of the post must be on-topic, which is the US market in decline.

See: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

bog007
Posts: 41
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bog007 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:44 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am
Gonna be a long hot summer. With about 15% unemployment.
Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 1:10 pm
A talking head just reminded me; sell in May and go away. My how time flies.
Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
telling. no argument possible!

fatcoffeedrinker
Posts: 209
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:03 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:02 am

bog007 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm
7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:44 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am
Gonna be a long hot summer. With about 15% unemployment.
Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 1:10 pm
A talking head just reminded me; sell in May and go away. My how time flies.
Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
telling. no argument possible!
So what you're saying is that someone who sold in May all those years would have less gains than someone using a B&H srategy, and the timer would have paid capital gains taxes on the gains from the prior 6 months. Wonderful strategy. Sign me up!

Blue456
Posts: 715
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 am

fatcoffeedrinker wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:02 am
bog007 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm
7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:44 pm
Sell in May and go away, no one ever listens.

Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
telling. no argument possible!
So what you're saying is that someone who sold in May all those years would have less gains than someone using a B&H srategy, and the timer would have paid capital gains taxes on the gains from the prior 6 months. Wonderful strategy. Sign me up!
But May through October still gained average 433.5 points vs 0 if you sold.

7eight9
Posts: 1057
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:08 am

Blue456 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 am
fatcoffeedrinker wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:02 am
bog007 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm
7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm


Sell in May? Since May 1st, the market is up 10% this year. Even if we start from May 8th, the day you first posted about selling in May, the market is up 6%.

Here's the last 5 years of returns from the first trading day in May to the first trading day in Sept.

2016-05-02 to 2016-09-01 5.5% gain
2017-05-01 to 2017-09-01 4.1% gain
2018-05-01 to 2018-09-04 10.2% gain
2019-05-01 to 2019-09-03 -0.5% loss
2020-05-01 to 2019-06-26 10.0% gain (still have a few months to go)

Seems like pretty dumb advice.
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
telling. no argument possible!
So what you're saying is that someone who sold in May all those years would have less gains than someone using a B&H srategy, and the timer would have paid capital gains taxes on the gains from the prior 6 months. Wonderful strategy. Sign me up!
But May through October still gained average 433.5 points vs 0 if you sold.
May through October would have earned something (tbill, stable value, money market, etc.) not 0.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:28 am

7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm
"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
In a recent, maybe still the most current, Rational Reminder podcast, they were talking about why day traders often fail to beat the market or even to have positive returns. One of the points they made was that the majority of stock market gains happen overnight, when earnings and other major announcements tend to take place. I just Googled that and there is at least some support for what they said, though I did not investigate thoroughly. So maybe the statement should be "sell before the bell lest your portfolio start to smell."

https://www.ccn.com/the-stock-markets-b ... -each-day/

:happy

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:11 am

7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm

"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
I thought it was because they usually went on summer vacation and if something enormous happened you'd be unable to find a buyer since everyone was gone. This was before modern day communications where you can get virtually anyone on the phone within minutes.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:34 am

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:28 am
One of the points they made was that the majority of stock market gains happen overnight, when earnings and other major announcements tend to take place. I just Googled that and there is at least some support for what they said, though I did not investigate thoroughly. So maybe the statement should be "sell before the bell lest your portfolio start to smell."
It seems to me that if gains happen overnight, you want to be holding stocks overnight.

So I’d rephrase your slogan as “Don’t sell before the bell, because your portfolio will swell”. :D
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:35 am

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:11 am
7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm

"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
I thought it was because they usually went on summer vacation and if something enormous happened you'd be unable to find a buyer since everyone was gone. This was before modern day communications where you can get virtually anyone on the phone within minutes.
The roots of the adage, and the recognition of the results that inspired it, aren’t entirely clear. It’s believed to have originated in England as “Sell in May and go away, and come on back on St. Leger’s Day,” but not for market-timing reasons. Rather, it was brief advice offered to London’s well-to-do crowd looking to escape the heat of summer.
St. Leger’s Day – referring to the St. Leger’s Stakes horse race – falls in mid-September, when the heat finally starts to melt into cooler fall temperatures.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/inves ... -tips.html
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:19 am

Stinky wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:34 am
whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:28 am
One of the points they made was that the majority of stock market gains happen overnight, when earnings and other major announcements tend to take place. I just Googled that and there is at least some support for what they said, though I did not investigate thoroughly. So maybe the statement should be "sell before the bell lest your portfolio start to smell."
It seems to me that if gains happen overnight, you want to be holding stocks overnight.

So I’d rephrase your slogan as “Don’t sell before the bell, because your portfolio will swell”. :D
Opening bell.

Maybe it wasn't that catchy. :happy

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:23 am

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:19 am
Stinky wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:34 am
whodidntante wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:28 am
One of the points they made was that the majority of stock market gains happen overnight, when earnings and other major announcements tend to take place. I just Googled that and there is at least some support for what they said, though I did not investigate thoroughly. So maybe the statement should be "sell before the bell lest your portfolio start to smell."
It seems to me that if gains happen overnight, you want to be holding stocks overnight.

So I’d rephrase your slogan as “Don’t sell before the bell, because your portfolio will swell”. :D
Opening bell.

Maybe it wasn't that catchy. :happy
LOL
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:39 am

7eight9 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:08 am
Blue456 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:05 am
fatcoffeedrinker wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:02 am
bog007 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:35 pm
7eight9 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:16 pm


"Sell in May and Go Away" refers to a six-month switching strategy in which fund managers and investors cut their losses and tighten up their portfolio right around May 1. That's because the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically performs worse between May 1 and Oct. 31 than it does in the year's other half. According to Stock Trader's Almanac data, the DJIA gained a total of 17,992.8 points between Nov. 1 and April 30 in the 66 years between 1950 to 2015, while the remaining May-through-October months gained only 433.5 points:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... y-14103058
telling. no argument possible!
So what you're saying is that someone who sold in May all those years would have less gains than someone using a B&H srategy, and the timer would have paid capital gains taxes on the gains from the prior 6 months. Wonderful strategy. Sign me up!
But May through October still gained average 433.5 points vs 0 if you sold.
May through October would have earned something (tbill, stable value, money market, etc.) not 0.
Which would be eaten up by capital gains taxes. I'll take a hard pass.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:13 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:32 pm
Sell in May?
Seems like pretty dumb advice.
It's not advice it is "poetic license".

That said futures are down but it's still early.

sean.mcgrath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sean.mcgrath » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:55 am

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:04 pm
My physics teacher in high school taught me a very good lesson about the scientific method.

Archimedes thought about it for a while, and said heavy objects fall faster than lighter objects. Makes sense, right? For 1600 years, everyone just assumed Archimedes was right, because he was smart.

But It's a pretty easy thing to test, and Galileo tested it by dropping two objects of different weights. And they hit the ground at the same time.

So when someone tells you "Sell in May and go away"... test it.
I think you mean Aristotle for free-falling objects? Afaik, Archimedes worked with objects in a liquid and was correct. He figured out displacement, center of gravity, and a bunch of sophisticated work into ship's hulls. Also Galileo's hero vs. his nemesis Aristotle.

as you say, if someone tells you... test it :wink:

p.s. not an expert, so happy to be shown wrong

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:36 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:50 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:34 am


...The sell-off today finally broke me. I tried to be disciplined but I just couldn't do it any longer. So I bought a small (tiny) position in TQQQ @ $93.73. I am a weak, weak man.
And I though I was adventurous buying QQQ.

Do you day trade that? What is a good percentage gain?
This is the first time I ever own this. Been curious about this animal for awhile, so when I saw a 2+% drop I figured it was time to dip my toe in and see what happens. Bought it around 12:25 EDT today (6/24), cost basis is above. This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
Not surprisingly this investment was down by the close yesterday. I used the drop this morning to add to it. So we will see how things go.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ricchan » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:11 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Looks like Google wants to rewrite history with that idea in mind. Is anyone else seeing this, or is it just me?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:13 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Indeed. If the US could go sideways for a spell it will be a boon for those still accumulating. Hopefully it doesn't go sideways for a generation. I'll still be fine but my early retirement hopes might be dashed.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Let's have a 13 year inverse bubble where the CAPE hovers around 10. Oh, yeah, and we gotta let international outperform, but still perform miserably.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:36 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because that is where the OP is. I bought initially on a Free Fall day and have been riding the coaster ever since.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:41 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am

Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Let's have a 13 year inverse bubble where the CAPE hovers around 10. Oh, yeah, and we gotta let international outperform, but still perform miserably.
IMHO, people need to stop believing you can compare markets by comparing PEs. Just because market A has a PE of 20 and market B has a PE of 16 it doesn't mean market B is cheaper or a better value, of course it doesn't mean it isn't either because that is not how PEs work imho.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:13 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:41 pm
Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:30 am


Because we accumulators want the market to remain flat as long as possible. :D
No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Let's have a 13 year inverse bubble where the CAPE hovers around 10. Oh, yeah, and we gotta let international outperform, but still perform miserably.
IMHO, people need to stop believing you can compare markets by comparing PEs. Just because market A has a PE of 20 and market B has a PE of 16 it doesn't mean market B is cheaper or a better value, of course it doesn't mean it isn't either because that is not how PEs work imho.
If I'm not mistaken, that's what Shiller himself does. For example, I found this article,

"Robert Shiller’s surprising case for buying Russian stocks"
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/robert- ... tocks.html

While the U.S. has the highest CAPE ratio, “the lowest CAPE ratio of the 26 countries [analyzed] is Russia,” Shiller said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

The Yale professor of economics and Nobel laureate added that “I’m thinking about” investing in Russia “when [the ratio] is this low.”

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:21 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:13 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:41 pm
Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:18 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:05 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:00 pm


No, no...we want a HUGE crash followed by a V shaped recovery.
I wouldn't personally mind the crash, but I wouldn't want a V-shaped recovery. I would want the market to crash and stay that way for a good 13 years or so then suddenly make up for lost time and duplicate its performance from the 1990s. 8-)
Let's have a 13 year inverse bubble where the CAPE hovers around 10. Oh, yeah, and we gotta let international outperform, but still perform miserably.
IMHO, people need to stop believing you can compare markets by comparing PEs. Just because market A has a PE of 20 and market B has a PE of 16 it doesn't mean market B is cheaper or a better value, of course it doesn't mean it isn't either because that is not how PEs work imho.
If I'm not mistaken, that's what Shiller himself does. For example, I found this article,

"Robert Shiller’s surprising case for buying Russian stocks"
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/robert- ... tocks.html

While the U.S. has the highest CAPE ratio, “the lowest CAPE ratio of the 26 countries [analyzed] is Russia,” Shiller said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

The Yale professor of economics and Nobel laureate added that “I’m thinking about” investing in Russia “when [the ratio] is this low.”
I believe you will find that companies in different sectors and with different growth rates are awarded different PEs, so since markets are not likely to made up of companies of similar configuration I am not sure why one would expect different markets to have the same PE even if they had the same relative value. I haven't looked it up but I am guessing the sector make up of the German Market (or more correctly its representative index) differs somewhat from the S&P 500.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:36 pm

sean.mcgrath wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:55 am
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:04 pm
My physics teacher in high school taught me a very good lesson about the scientific method.

Archimedes thought about it for a while, and said heavy objects fall faster than lighter objects. Makes sense, right? For 1600 years, everyone just assumed Archimedes was right, because he was smart.

But It's a pretty easy thing to test, and Galileo tested it by dropping two objects of different weights. And they hit the ground at the same time.

So when someone tells you "Sell in May and go away"... test it.
I think you mean Aristotle for free-falling objects? Afaik, Archimedes worked with objects in a liquid and was correct. He figured out displacement, center of gravity, and a bunch of sophisticated work into ship's hulls. Also Galileo's hero vs. his nemesis Aristotle.

as you say, if someone tells you... test it :wink:

p.s. not an expert, so happy to be shown wrong
LOL, I think you're right... :) I should go look it up instead of just taking your word, right?

Eh, I'm lazy, it doesn't matter... It's the American way!
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:37 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:21 pm
I haven't looked it up but I am guessing the sector make up of the German Market (or more correctly its representative index) differs somewhat from the S&P 500.
Yes, that's true and fair. Different countries' stock markets have varying sector makeups, and when comparing CAPE we should take this into account. Vanguard S&P has 26.30% Information Technology vs 16% for Franklin FTSE Germany ETF, to give an example.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:48 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:37 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:21 pm
I haven't looked it up but I am guessing the sector make up of the German Market (or more correctly its representative index) differs somewhat from the S&P 500.
Yes, that's true and fair. Different countries' stock markets have varying sector makeups, and when comparing CAPE we should take this into account. Vanguard S&P has 26.30% Information Technology vs 16% for Franklin FTSE Germany ETF, to give an example.
The automobile industry is huge in Germany, but that is not necessarily a growth industry or one that is normally blessed with an extremely high PE. It is also an industry that is dependent on selling its products overseas. Anyway you get my where I am coming from.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:54 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:13 pm
"Robert Shiller’s surprising case for buying Russian stocks"
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/robert- ... tocks.html

While the U.S. has the highest CAPE ratio, “the lowest CAPE ratio of the 26 countries [analyzed] is Russia,” Shiller said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

The Yale professor of economics and Nobel laureate added that “I’m thinking about” investing in Russia “when [the ratio] is this low.”
What could possibly go wrong with this strategy? :P
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sean.mcgrath » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:12 am

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:36 pm

LOL, I think you're right... :) I should go look it up instead of just taking your word, right?

Eh, I'm lazy, it doesn't matter... It's the American way!
Sounds good to me -- I was dreading the loss of face if I'd messed it up! :wink:

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Not so far. But maybe it will.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Not so far. But maybe it will.
Now stocks are mixed: S&P and Nasdaq up, Dow and Russell down. You can't go ahead and say "maybe it will" without that ambiguity rubbing off! Clearly, all your fault.

On days like this, wishing I'd invested more in toilet paper.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:56 am

Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am
On days like this, wishing I'd invested more in toilet paper.
There is a German company that was listed in the DAX called Wirecard (or WC in short which stands for water closet or toilette). If you haven't heard of them, check out their stock price from the last 2 weeks. This might be a good substitute for investing in toilet paper :mrgreen:

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:57 am

Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Not so far. But maybe it will.
Now stocks are mixed: S&P and Nasdaq up, Dow and Russell down. You can't go ahead and say "maybe it will" without that ambiguity rubbing off! Clearly, all your fault.

On days like this, wishing I'd invested more in toilet paper.
Not a long term investor issue.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:03 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:57 am
Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Not so far. But maybe it will.
Now stocks are mixed: S&P and Nasdaq up, Dow and Russell down. You can't go ahead and say "maybe it will" without that ambiguity rubbing off! Clearly, all your fault.

On days like this, wishing I'd invested more in toilet paper.
Not a long term investor issue.
Not a long term investment thread. Time is different here, my lord.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:14 am

I don't like to see this thread active, it wounds my animal spirit and that makes him sad. :(

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:25 am

Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:03 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:57 am
Robot Monster wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:06 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:26 am

Why post in the free-fall thread? You are going to jinx it.
Not so far. But maybe it will.
Now stocks are mixed: S&P and Nasdaq up, Dow and Russell down. You can't go ahead and say "maybe it will" without that ambiguity rubbing off! Clearly, all your fault.

On days like this, wishing I'd invested more in toilet paper.
Not a long term investor issue.
Not a long term investment thread. Time is different here, my lord.
Then we use it differently.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:31 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:14 am
I don't like to see this thread active, it wounds my animal spirit and that makes him sad. :(
Sounds like your animal spirit could use a boost in its sense of humor nucleus :wink:

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:09 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:36 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
CurlyDave wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:50 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:34 am


...The sell-off today finally broke me. I tried to be disciplined but I just couldn't do it any longer. So I bought a small (tiny) position in TQQQ @ $93.73. I am a weak, weak man.
And I though I was adventurous buying QQQ.

Do you day trade that? What is a good percentage gain?
This is the first time I ever own this. Been curious about this animal for awhile, so when I saw a 2+% drop I figured it was time to dip my toe in and see what happens. Bought it around 12:25 EDT today (6/24), cost basis is above. This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
Not surprisingly this investment was down by the close yesterday. I used the drop this morning to add to it. So we will see how things go.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL. :sharebeer
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:24 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:09 pm
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL. :sharebeer
Notable ETF Inflow Detected - TQQQ...
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," said Warren Buffett, a phrase that encapsulates the contrarian philosophy."

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sean.mcgrath » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:06 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:09 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL. :sharebeer
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier. :sharebeer

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:04 am

sean.mcgrath wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:06 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:09 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:16 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:58 am
This holding is less than 0.2% of my portfolio, so no one is being brave here.
My cost basis for all purchases since and including June 24th is $92.335 for those who were wondering how I am doing on my little adventure.
Sell order triggered at $101.56 for 40% of my TQQQ. Maybe I am not a long term investor after all, LOL. :sharebeer
Congrats, you are now a bit less than 0.019982% wealthier. :sharebeer
This is no longer an accurate reflection of the size of the holding but it is still a trial part of my portfolio. A 10% gain in a week is certainly good fortune, but it easily could have been a 10% loss too.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am

Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/b ... rycode=bx
"Equity markets could get worse if the slowdown extends further, but also realize that the markets will rebound far before economic data improve."

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:56 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am
Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/b ... rycode=bx
Vanguard REIT (-.26%) is not feeling the love, more in tune with bond caution.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:29 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:42 am
Stocks are up a lot, but 10Y interest rates and bond futures are not very optimistic. There is a large disconnect here.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/b ... rycode=bx
What is your definition of "optimistic" treasury rates? Not sure what that means.

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