U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:46 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:34 am
Nasdaq at record high.

S&P up 1%.

What’s not to like?
Still not feeling guilty about having QQQ in my portfolio.
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Tim_in_GA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tim_in_GA » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:58 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:34 am
Nasdaq at record high.

S&P up 1%.

What’s not to like?
I was wondering when someone would bump this thread. Looking good today! International doing well too. I may hit my pre-COVID-19 high today.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:03 am

Tim_in_GA wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:58 am
Stinky wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:34 am
Nasdaq at record high.

S&P up 1%.

What’s not to like?
I was wondering when someone would bump this thread. Looking good today! International doing well too. I may hit my pre-COVID-19 high today.
That is because the dollar is down, not that foreign stocks are doing well.

atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:10 am

TLH'd some BRKB today. I keep telling myself I'll buy VTI with the proceeds when we have a down day, but that doesn't seem to be happening that often these days

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:45 pm

Great day for US equities! 3200 is within reach, steady as she goes.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:53 pm

atdharris wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:10 am
TLH'd some BRKB today. I keep telling myself I'll buy VTI with the proceeds when we have a down day, but that doesn't seem to be happening that often these days
You missed it, it happened yesterday from 9:30 to 10:30 PM EDT.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:15 pm
newyorker wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:35 pm
Future down by 1.12 percent. Us china trade deal off
It has recovered 1%, somebody got whip-sawed.
TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:31 pm
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:24 pm
Back to green.

That recession was scary, let's never do that again.
Good grief that was terrifying.

McGilicutty
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:26 pm

Getting a nice rise into the close.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:55 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:26 pm
Getting a nice rise into the close.
Nasdaq back above 10k.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:37 pm

Up 1% today... nice little melt up at the end!

7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:10 pm

Tomorrow could be interesting. Lots of bad news on the horizon. Of course it is all priced in. :happy

Fed Limits Bank Payouts and Suspends Share Buybacks as Pandemic Grinds On
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/busi ... imits.html

Texas Pauses Reopening as Virus Cases Soar Across the South and West
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/t ... e=Homepage
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:13 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Tomorrow could be interesting. Lots of bad news on the horizon. Of course it is all priced in. :happy

Fed Limits Bank Payouts and Suspends Share Buybacks as Pandemic Grinds On
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/busi ... imits.html

Texas Pauses Reopening as Virus Cases Soar Across the South and West
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/t ... e=Homepage
Of course, it’s all priced in. Mr Market knows everything. :D

Futures are about flat right now. But it’s early in the “futures day”, and more than 13 hours until the markets open.
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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm

Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:26 am

S&P Futures up about 0.5% this morning.

Hopefully this thread will be active today.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:24 am

Nasdaq futures are down, Russell futures are beating the S&P. I wonder what that portends...
"I HAVE THE POWER!!!" ~ He-Man

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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:41 am

Robot Monster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:24 am
Nasdaq futures are down, Russell futures are beating the S&P. I wonder what that portends...
It means the Yankees will lose by 2 in the 10th... :mrgreen:
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:43 am

Stocks are really all about specific companies, and we kinda forget that, I guess. Nasdaq futures can have a bad night if you have news or rumors from one really big Nasdaq-listed company, which we did. One of them had a bad weekend.

anyway, the Nasdaq was only joking about any anti-soaring today.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:00 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:43 am
Stocks are really all about specific companies, and we kinda forget that, I guess. Nasdaq futures can have a bad night if you have news or rumors from one really big Nasdaq-listed company, which we did. One of them had a bad weekend.

anyway, the Nasdaq was only joking about any anti-soaring today.
Microsoft and Amazon are slightly down, Disney and Vanguard Reit are both up +1%. I wonder what this portends for the Yankees.

Edit: as if 12:11pm, Microsoft is up, Amazon still down.

Also, this...
.#Stocks now solidly higher with the @Boeing - powered #Dow gaining 400 plus points (1.6%), S&P 1.1% and the #NASDAQ 0.9%.

Understandably, lots of people are looking for durable reasons. Unfortunately, it appears to be more an issue of technicals, particularly with quarter end.
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/127 ... 47620?s=19
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:17 am

Stinky wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:26 am
S&P Futures up about 0.5% this morning.

Hopefully this thread will be active today.
:moneybag From your keyboard to Mr. Market soars again. I had a limit order, VOO, executer at 276, I should have set it at 275 but I can't win them all. That was the last of my dry powder.

Pay days are just a few days away and I will fill my powder horn a new. :greedy

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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:43 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:00 am
Microsoft and Amazon are slightly down, Disney and Vanguard Reit are both up +1%. I wonder what this portends for the Yankees.
It means you can hit under .225 and still get a multi-million dollar contract to play for them.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:53 pm

oldzey wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
Soar, indeed! But why did you post a quote from that guy who sold all his airline stocks at the bottom and hasn't managed to beat the market in a long, long time? :twisted:

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:16 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:53 pm
oldzey wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
Soar, indeed! But why did you post a quote from that guy who sold all his airline stocks at the bottom and hasn't managed to beat the market in a long, long time? :twisted:
Good point! :sharebeer

Mr. Buffett should stay away from airlines, take his own advice that he give to others, and buy low-cost S&P 500 index funds (+1.47% today).
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm

oldzey wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:16 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:53 pm
oldzey wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
Soar, indeed! But why did you post a quote from that guy who sold all his airline stocks at the bottom and hasn't managed to beat the market in a long, long time? :twisted:
Good point! :sharebeer

Mr. Buffett should stay away from airlines, take his own advice that he give to others, and buy low-cost S&P 500 index funds (+1.47% today).
Had he done so for the last ~15 years, he would have had better returns.

It seems difficult to say that markets have not gotten more efficient as time has gone on (i.e. quickly incorporating relevant information into market prices). And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis. I don't know, but I know that I wouldn't buy any Berkshire Hathaway stock right now and am instead buying index funds.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:39 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:17 am
Stinky wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:26 am
S&P Futures up about 0.5% this morning.

Hopefully this thread will be active today.
:moneybag From your keyboard to Mr. Market soars again. I had a limit order, VOO, executer at 276, I should have set it at 275 but I can't win them all. That was the last of my dry powder.

Pay days are just a few days away and I will fill my powder horn a new. :greedy
Melt up at the close.

It was a fine start to a short trading week.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:14 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis
Larry P has been doing it for 23 years.

This is a graph comparing Larry to Vanguard's S&P 500 and large cap growth index funds. Larry is ahead $52,000. he is beating his index by $96,000

I know Larry can't keep it up but if Warren Buffett bet Vanguard's S&P 500 index against TRBCX instead of the hedge funds he would have lost.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:20 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis
Larry P has been doing it for 23 years.

This is a graph comparing Larry to Vanguard's S&P 500 and large cap growth index funds. Larry is ahead $52,000. he is beating his index by $96,000

I know Larry can't keep it up but if Warren Buffett bet Vanguard's S&P 500 index against TRBCX instead of the hedge funds he would have lost.
Maybe he can keep it up. But the odds seem stacked against him.

The context was very different, but the idea is the same behind Bertrand Russell's quote: "You may reasonably expect a man to walk a tightrope safely for ten minutes; it would be unreasonable to do so without accident for two hundred years."
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:08 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:20 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis
This is a graph comparing Larry to Vanguard's S&P 500 and large cap growth index funds. Larry is ahead $52,000. he is beating his index by $96,000

I know Larry can't keep it up but if Warren Buffett bet Vanguard's S&P 500 index against TRBCX instead of the hedge funds he would have lost.
Maybe he can keep it up. But the odds seem stacked against him.
Looking at the returns for any investment when I hit the adjust for inflation button I see the odds are get longer for everyone. Inflation eats more profits than most people think. In 23 years $150,000 is only $89,000 in buying power.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:44 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
oldzey wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:16 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:53 pm
oldzey wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
Soar, indeed! But why did you post a quote from that guy who sold all his airline stocks at the bottom and hasn't managed to beat the market in a long, long time? :twisted:
Good point! :sharebeer

Mr. Buffett should stay away from airlines, take his own advice that he give to others, and buy low-cost S&P 500 index funds (+1.47% today).
Had he done so for the last ~15 years, he would have had better returns.

It seems difficult to say that markets have not gotten more efficient as time has gone on (i.e. quickly incorporating relevant information into market prices). And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis. I don't know, but I know that I wouldn't buy any Berkshire Hathaway stock right now and am instead buying index funds.
It seems odd that you simultaneously believe this, and that you can do "better" by using your own home brewed timing scheme.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:08 pm
Looking at the returns for any investment when I hit the adjust for inflation button I see the odds are get longer for everyone. Inflation eats more profits than most people think. In 23 years $150,000 is only $89,000 in buying power.
I hear that! In the late 90's, my retirement number was $X. When I hit that number a few years ago, I found out that my retirement number was now about 1.5X. It doesn't help that things that you gotta have like healthcare and food seem to be going up faster than other stuff.

But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:57 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
It seems difficult to say that markets have not gotten more efficient as time has gone on (i.e. quickly incorporating relevant information into market prices). And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis. I don't know, but I know that I wouldn't buy any Berkshire Hathaway stock right now and am instead buying index funds.
Jim Simons apparently knows how to beat the market. But the approach used by the Medallion fund is not scalable. And he's not exactly forthcoming about his methods. Maybe it's the Baum–Welch algorithm with a dash of salt. Some humans also claim to make money by exploiting the pattern in the matrix.

"God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I'd rather have had no tail and no flies."
- Jim Simons.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:59 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Russell 2000 kicked the S&P's little butt. Go team small caps!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:44 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:28 pm
oldzey wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:16 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:53 pm
oldzey wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:47 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer
Soar, indeed! But why did you post a quote from that guy who sold all his airline stocks at the bottom and hasn't managed to beat the market in a long, long time? :twisted:
Good point! :sharebeer

Mr. Buffett should stay away from airlines, take his own advice that he give to others, and buy low-cost S&P 500 index funds (+1.47% today).
Had he done so for the last ~15 years, he would have had better returns.

It seems difficult to say that markets have not gotten more efficient as time has gone on (i.e. quickly incorporating relevant information into market prices). And the more efficient the market becomes, the more difficult that individual stock picking becomes. We have may reached a point with regard to market efficiency where even the best pickers in the world simply cannot outperform the market consistently on a cost-adjusted basis. I don't know, but I know that I wouldn't buy any Berkshire Hathaway stock right now and am instead buying index funds.
It seems odd that you simultaneously believe this, and that you can do "better" by using your own home brewed timing scheme.
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:09 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:08 pm
Looking at the returns for any investment when I hit the adjust for inflation button I see the odds are get longer for everyone. Inflation eats more profits than most people think. In 23 years $150,000 is only $89,000 in buying power.
I hear that! In the late 90's, my retirement number was $X. When I hit that number a few years ago, I found out that my retirement number was now about 1.5X. It doesn't help that things that you gotta have like healthcare and food seem to be going up faster than other stuff.

But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Stocks are the no work way to stay ahead of taxes and inflation. Fixed income isn't going to get it done. If we knew how long we were going to live we could plan better.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nowizard » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:14 pm

I suspect that individual stock picking is more likely to be successful now than in a long time if your picks are based on recent returns. There are numerous stocks that diverge substantially from the market averages. We have put some cash in these stocks and done very well in the short term. That does not mean that they are long term holds, however, as we also suspect there is a real probability of stocks soaring downward in the future.

Tim

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm

I learned my lesson a long time ago.

Index funds and chill. So much free time to enjoy life. :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:11 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.
I have no qualms with either thinking (efficient or not).

But, seems odd to say that Buffet can't beat markets because they are efficient, but then believe you can with your own home brewed timing system. It seems to me that it takes a more than a bit of hubris to maintain both of those beliefs simultaneously.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:13 pm

H-Town wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm
I learned my lesson a long time ago.

Index funds and chill. So much free time to enjoy life. :beer
I agree but I had to get out of foreign stocks. After many years I was finally breaking even and bailed.
I should have put the money in an S&P 500 index fund but I didn't. After doing due diligence, I think, I went with a managed fund. It's only 9% of my stock holdings and just about anything will beat VXUS.

I can still chill now but just picking a managed fund was a bit of work. It would be a full time job picking and following a dozen or so individual stocks.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:23 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:11 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.
I have no qualms with either thinking (efficient or not).

But, seems odd to say that Buffet can't beat markets because they are efficient, but then believe you can with your own home brewed timing system. It seems to me that it takes a more than a bit of hubris to maintain both of those beliefs simultaneously.
Who's Buffet? That sounds like a delicious name. :beer

In seriousness, I don't know if Buffett ever had the alpha-generating skills purported to him. I think Berkshire Hathaway was mostly about it's wholly-owned and majority share businesses, and the kind of deals and securities you can't get through your E*Trade interface. The public securities being a smaller portion, along with an extremely conservative portfolio of Treasuries.

Other than that, my understanding is he is a value investor, and he dropped more coin in mid and small-cap stocks than mega caps. Small and value have lagged recently but certainly roared in the past. But investing in small and value is not alpha. Those are known risk factors. If that's all it takes, I demand to be called the Oracle of the Bogleheads. :happy

:sharebeer

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:29 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:13 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm
Index funds and chill. So much free time to enjoy life. :beer
I agree but I had to get out of foreign stocks. After many years I was finally breaking even and bailed.
The problem is, past performance is no guarantee of future results. You might have picked a terrible time to bail. With the benefit of hindsight, one can always pick the best investments.

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:30 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:23 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:11 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.
I have no qualms with either thinking (efficient or not).

But, seems odd to say that Buffet can't beat markets because they are efficient, but then believe you can with your own home brewed timing system. It seems to me that it takes a more than a bit of hubris to maintain both of those beliefs simultaneously.
Who's Buffet? That sounds like a delicious name. :beer

In seriousness, I don't know if Buffett ever had the alpha-generating skills purported to him. I think Berkshire Hathaway was mostly about it's wholly-owned and majority share businesses, and the kind of deals and securities you can't get through your E*Trade interface. The public securities being a smaller portion, along with an extremely conservative portfolio of Treasuries.

Other than that, my understanding is he is a value investor, and he dropped more coin in mid and small-cap stocks than mega caps. Small and value have lagged recently but certainly roared in the past. But investing in small and value is not alpha. Those are known risk factors. If that's all it takes, I demand to be called the Oracle of the Bogleheads. :happy

:sharebeer
Yeah, your points are dead on.

I don't really care whether it is Buffett, Smorgasbord, Bill Miller, Larry whoever, etc. The argument seems to be professionals that spend all their time with a staff of people focused on nothing else can't beat the markets because of EMH, but I can because I discovered this approach by reading a few blogs in my spare time. Pure hubris to believe both.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

theorist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:34 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:23 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:11 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.
I have no qualms with either thinking (efficient or not).

But, seems odd to say that Buffet can't beat markets because they are efficient, but then believe you can with your own home brewed timing system. It seems to me that it takes a more than a bit of hubris to maintain both of those beliefs simultaneously.
Who's Buffet? That sounds like a delicious name. :beer

In seriousness, I don't know if Buffett ever had the alpha-generating skills purported to him. I think Berkshire Hathaway was mostly about it's wholly-owned and majority share businesses, and the kind of deals and securities you can't get through your E*Trade interface. The public securities being a smaller portion, along with an extremely conservative portfolio of Treasuries.

Other than that, my understanding is he is a value investor, and he dropped more coin in mid and small-cap stocks than mega caps. Small and value have lagged recently but certainly roared in the past. But investing in small and value is not alpha. Those are known risk factors. If that's all it takes, I demand to be called the Oracle of the Bogleheads. :happy

:sharebeer

It is also reasonable to think that some investors who can perform extremely well with 10k or 10M may have trouble with hundreds of billions of dollars to invest...the nature of investments that can move the needle probably changes with scale.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:51 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:30 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:23 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:11 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:04 pm
There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market).
I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy

In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's also a reasonable model for how markets work. I believe Fama has made similar statements, probably far more elegantly than I can.
I have no qualms with either thinking (efficient or not).

But, seems odd to say that Buffet can't beat markets because they are efficient, but then believe you can with your own home brewed timing system. It seems to me that it takes a more than a bit of hubris to maintain both of those beliefs simultaneously.
Who's Buffet? That sounds like a delicious name. :beer

In seriousness, I don't know if Buffett ever had the alpha-generating skills purported to him. I think Berkshire Hathaway was mostly about it's wholly-owned and majority share businesses, and the kind of deals and securities you can't get through your E*Trade interface. The public securities being a smaller portion, along with an extremely conservative portfolio of Treasuries.

Other than that, my understanding is he is a value investor, and he dropped more coin in mid and small-cap stocks than mega caps. Small and value have lagged recently but certainly roared in the past. But investing in small and value is not alpha. Those are known risk factors. If that's all it takes, I demand to be called the Oracle of the Bogleheads. :happy

:sharebeer
Yeah, your points are dead on.

I don't really care whether it is Buffett, Smorgasbord, Bill Miller, Larry whoever, etc. The argument seems to be professionals that spend all their time with a staff of people focused on nothing else can't beat the markets because of EMH, but I can because I discovered this approach by reading a few blogs in my spare time. Pure hubris to believe both.
I can see why you might believe that it's hubris, but check out the posts on Philosophical Economics about trend following. I could go into my own explanation, but the author did a much better and far more thorough job than I have. And he isn't selling anything.

There's a big distinction between saying that individual stock picking, which is what Buffett has done, is a fool's errand and saying that stocks in general aren't a good buy at a certain point in time. Even Fama and other EMH advocates have admitted that time-series momentum is real. It's now treated as a given in the academic literature, and many peer-reviewed articles have tested trend following strategies across asset classes, time, and geography, with most leading to the same robust conclusion. But I won't say more at the risk of derailing this thread.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:15 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:29 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:13 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm
Index funds and chill. So much free time to enjoy life. :beer
I agree but I had to get out of foreign stocks. After many years I was finally breaking even and bailed.
The problem is, past performance is no guarantee of future results. You might have picked a terrible time to bail. With the benefit of hindsight, one can always pick the best investments.
I picked my time to get out years ago. I started with 20% VXUS in my stock holdings. I got tired of dumping money in to keep it at 20% so I decided to let it drop to 10%; that didn't take long.

Then I remembered what Jack Bogle said, "we don't need foreign stocks". I was losing big time and decided to sell it as soon as I broke even, not counting dividends. It took years but that happened this month with the Dollar index taking a beating.

I don't jump around chasing the flavor of the month, I calculated the cost and risk and figured TRBCX will return more than VXUS over the next few years. I may be wrong but I didn't bet the ranch. I know it is not 100% Boglehead investing but I have a high tolerance for risk, a little risk anyway.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:08 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:15 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:29 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:13 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:15 pm
Index funds and chill. So much free time to enjoy life. :beer
I agree but I had to get out of foreign stocks. After many years I was finally breaking even and bailed.
The problem is, past performance is no guarantee of future results. You might have picked a terrible time to bail. With the benefit of hindsight, one can always pick the best investments.
I picked my time to get out years ago. I started with 20% VXUS in my stock holdings. I got tired of dumping money in to keep it at 20% so I decided to let it drop to 10%; that didn't take long.

Then I remembered what Jack Bogle said, "we don't need foreign stocks". I was losing big time and decided to sell it as soon as I broke even, not counting dividends. It took years but that happened this month with the Dollar index taking a beating.

I don't jump around chasing the flavor of the month, I calculated the cost and risk and figured TRBCX will return more than VXUS over the next few years. I may be wrong but I didn't bet the ranch. I know it is not 100% Boglehead investing but I have a high tolerance for risk, a little risk anyway.
I would take VXUS over TRBCX (T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund).

The U.S. dollars seems to go down with where we are heading towards to November 2020. I'll leave it at that.

Regardless, I'm holding 60 U.S. / 40 International. In any given year, I'm always behind 100% U.S. or 100% International. However, over a long period of time, I have a good chance to beat both 100% U.S. and 100% International. You either believe in diversification or you don't.

Disclaimer: Nothing wrong with 100% U.S. or 100% International. Each fund should be enough for investor.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:10 am

McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Market soared yesterday.

Market soaring today, into the end of the quarter.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:32 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:10 am
McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Market soared yesterday.

Market soaring today, into the end of the quarter.
The American consumer is proving resilient with consumer confidence beating consensus.
https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull ... ek.asp#top

In contrast, not such a happy day for international stocks.

American magic strikes again.

Just look at this headline:
Stocks Rise on Last Day of Best Quarter Since ‘98
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rkets-wrap
"I HAVE THE POWER!!!" ~ He-Man

McGilicutty
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:56 am

Robot Monster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:59 pm
McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Russell 2000 kicked the S&P's little butt. Go team small caps!
And it's happening again today. Maybe it's the start of a trend.

(Actually, if you do a compare of Russell 2000 against S&P 500 on Google Finance back to around the year 2000, Russell 2000 outperforms by quite a bit. It's only in the last few years that the S&P 500 has really outperformed.)

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:17 am

H-Town wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:08 am
I would take VXUS over TRBCX (T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund).
Good, Larry's TRBCX has been getting too big and that worries me. It has only been a few weeks but so far so good. Today is looking to be the best day so far, foreign down a bit, large growth up 1.25%
What a country, we can put our money where our mouths are.
Stinky wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:10 am
McGilicutty wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:49 pm
But I digress. How about that soaring market, today!
Market soared yesterday.

Market soaring today, into the end of the quarter.
NJ opened the malls Sunday, the parking lots looked like Christmas week.
Spend that stimulus money. :moneybag

Robot Monster
Posts: 432
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:12 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:17 am
NJ opened the malls Sunday, the parking lots looked like Christmas week.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF currently beating the S&P, too!
"I HAVE THE POWER!!!" ~ He-Man


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