What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

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duricka
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What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by duricka » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:32 pm

I just want to see rough predictions for a year from now. Would you consider https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/inflation-rate reliable?

garlandwhizzer
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:19 pm

It's a guess, as good as any guess I suppose. There are strong global deflationary forces now with a worldwide recession/bear market that appear likely to hold in check inflationary pressures from any amount of stimulus from the FED or Congress. No matter how much the M1 money supply increases the velocity of money is so low now and it is not expected to raise prices by much anytime soon. What happens after 2022 may be a different question. Presumably by then we'll have the solution for COVID-19, economies worldwide will be fully open, and there will be a lot of pent up demand. Safe to say now that essentially no one believes that runaway inflation will take off then, instead a slight/modest increase in inflation. There's always a high level of uncertainty when predicting the market's future or the economy's future. The above is only my guess. It can be dangerous to make big portfolio allocation moves based on what we expect is going to happen to markets or the economy in the next year or two.

Garland Whizzer

Robot Monster
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Robot Monster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:48 pm

duricka wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:32 pm
I just want to see rough predictions for a year from now. Would you consider https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/inflation-rate reliable?
Can you give us more context as to how this information might be useful to you? Why are you only concerned with one year? The link shows inflation for every country...do you need all that, and why?

Personally I keep an eye on this,
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

Not sure if that's at all helpful, sorry.
Last edited by Robot Monster on Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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magicrat
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by magicrat » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:58 pm

Try looking at the difference between TIPS and nominal treasuries

Broken Man 1999
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:14 pm

Here is a different Fed Bank (Atlanta) I follow, along with the St Louis Fed report posted earlier. Enjoy!

https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject

Being a bit of a wonk, I follow the Fed reports. Nothing used to make any investment decisions.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

Topic Author
duricka
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by duricka » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:36 am

Thanks. You are not worried that classical tm/tbm portfolio is going to fail with infinite qe policy?

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Horton
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Horton » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:20 pm

The Cleveland Fed is a good resource:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... tions.aspx

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Horton
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Horton » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:20 pm

duricka wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:36 am
Thanks. You are not worried that classical tm/tbm portfolio is going to fail with infinite qe policy?
To quote St Peter, “where else shall we go?”

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galeno
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by galeno » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:24 pm

Watch the yield on 10 yr TIPS.
USA-NRA. TER = 0.28%. Expected real CAGR = 2.00%. AWR = 4.00%.: Port: 50% World Stocks + 15% TIPS + 15% Corps + 15% US Treas + 5% CASH.

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Horton
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Horton » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:27 pm

galeno wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:24 pm
Watch the yield on 10 yr TIPS.
That tells you the real yield. You would need to compare to a nominal 10 yr Treasury for the implied inflation.

Robot Monster
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Re: What's a good source to see inflation predictions?

Post by Robot Monster » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:28 pm

Horton wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:20 pm
duricka wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:36 am
Thanks. You are not worried that classical tm/tbm portfolio is going to fail with infinite qe policy?
To quote St Peter, “where else shall we go?”
Gold, obviously. :wink:
"Dalio...said that investors should favour stocks and gold over bonds and cash because the latter offer a negative rate of return and central banks will print more money."
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-mark ... 703-p558ly

Maybe TIPS? Commodities, anyone? Vanguard Market Neutral Fund? Whiskey?
"I HAVE THE POWER!!!" ~ He-Man

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