So bottom is probably behind us....right?

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minimalistmarc
Posts: 893
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by minimalistmarc » Tue May 19, 2020 3:00 pm

rascott wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 8:50 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:27 am
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
There were loads. There were more than a few who went all to cash at or near the bottom

A near term bottom. We have no clue what the coming 6-12 months hold for us.

I was reviewing market news stories from August 2008 this morning. Amazing in hindsight.... but there was very little worry that things were going to fall off a cliff. Several pieces mentioned things like the economy was just fine outside of housing, the bottom was in, the stimulus package passed would help patch things up, e.t.c, e.t.c.
My point was there was a lot of capitulation at the recent bottom. I agree we don’t know if there will be another lower bottom.

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm

mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

Robot Monster
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Robot Monster » Wed May 20, 2020 9:19 am

marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
I think a lot of people were afraid the market would descend into the great recession depths. Even Jim Cramer, at the end of March, expressed the following sentiment:

"...We need to make it through the second quarter, and that second quarter is going to be so ugly,” Cramer said. “It’s going to be like 2007-2008 all over again.”

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/jim-cra ... -ugly.html

P.S. He currently says: "We've probably taken a depression off the table...That doesn’t mean there’s no more downside, but it does mean we likely won’t be revisiting the March lows."

mptfan
Posts: 5999
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by mptfan » Wed May 20, 2020 9:49 am

marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
Can you cite to one?

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm

mptfan wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 9:49 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
Can you cite to one?
Here was a guys who thought equities were going to zero. Lots of follow-up posts where he expected a depression, several people agreed with him
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:
DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stef » Wed May 20, 2020 12:30 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm
Here was a guys who thought equities were going to zero. Lots of follow-up posts where he expected a depression, several people agreed with him
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
When I click on the user: The requested user does not exist.

What a bummer! He made the thread on March 23rd.

DB2
Posts: 893
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DB2 » Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm


In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:
DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent? It is likely going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, default home mortgages, default car loans, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!). It should also be noted it's really just a relatively small number of stocks that have rebounded which are carrying the averages higher (which only reinforces the need to buy Total Market indexes in my opinion).

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm


In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:
DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent. It is going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!).

Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

DB2
Posts: 893
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DB2 » Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm


In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:
DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent. It is going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!).

Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
I didn't make up those numbers. So, I have been right. These are historically depressionary numbers! These are incredibly bad. If you refuse to believe them that is up to you. I saw it coming and it wasn't hard. Basic economics. I rest my case.

And the writing is largely on the wall for the rest of the year. This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.

User avatar
canadianbacon
Posts: 125
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:04 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by canadianbacon » Wed May 20, 2020 1:33 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.
Priced in.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 4089
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stinky » Wed May 20, 2020 1:57 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.
How do you know that it will return worse in the fall?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm


In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:
DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent. It is going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!).

Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
I didn't make up those numbers. So, I have been right. These are historically depressionary numbers! These are incredibly bad. If you refuse to believe them that is up to you. I saw it coming and it wasn't hard. Basic economics. I rest my case.

And the writing is largely on the wall for the rest of the year. This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.

You think your post(s) are just presenting numbers (that you didn't make up)!?!?

No doom and gloom predictions buried in there at all?!?

LOL

Like I said, you might be right, but pretending that it is all pre-determined is a certain kind of hubris.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 2:42 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm

We are in a depression...and it might get worse.
By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions in more recent years.

What we are experiencing economically is a minor inconvenience compared to an actual depression.
It may someday get that bad, we simply don't know, but we are a LONG ways from there currently.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

Kookaburra
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:14 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Kookaburra » Wed May 20, 2020 2:52 pm

I found the following trio of messages above amusing. Paraphrasing:

-The virus will return worse in the fall.

-That is already priced in.

-How do you know it will be returning worse in the fall?

So one person is certain it’s coming back, and that is the basis for future stock market shocks ahead. The next agrees with the premise, but says it’s already known with such certainty that the market has already adjusted for it. The third person questions the certainty of whether it will happen, which inherently questions how the market could price it in with such certainty.

Let this serve as our daily reminder that: nobody knows nothing.

DB2
Posts: 893
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DB2 » Wed May 20, 2020 3:21 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:42 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm

We are in a depression...and it might get worse.
By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions in more recent years.

What we are experiencing economically is a minor inconvenience compared to an actual depression.
It may someday get that bad, we simply don't know, but we are a LONG ways from there currently.
I think you are insulting people I know who are permanently laid off and cannot find work. Unemployment is not cutting it (their salaries were above the benefits) and they have family. Telling them this is a minor inconvenience? That sounds pompous to me.

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Stinky
Posts: 4089
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stinky » Wed May 20, 2020 3:23 pm

Kookaburra wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:52 pm
I found the following trio of messages above amusing. Paraphrasing:

-The virus will return worse in the fall.

-That is already priced in.

-How do you know it will be returning worse in the fall?

So one person is certain it’s coming back, and that is the basis for future stock market shocks ahead. The next agrees with the premise, but says it’s already known with such certainty that the market has already adjusted for it. The third person questions the certainty of whether it will happen, which inherently questions how the market could price it in with such certainty.

Let this serve as our daily reminder that: nobody knows nothing.
Very astute observation.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

DB2
Posts: 893
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DB2 » Wed May 20, 2020 3:24 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm


In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression:

We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent. It is going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!).

Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
I didn't make up those numbers. So, I have been right. These are historically depressionary numbers! These are incredibly bad. If you refuse to believe them that is up to you. I saw it coming and it wasn't hard. Basic economics. I rest my case.

And the writing is largely on the wall for the rest of the year. This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.

You think your post(s) are just presenting numbers (that you didn't make up)!?!?

No doom and gloom predictions buried in there at all?!?

LOL

Like I said, you might be right, but pretending that it is all pre-determined is a certain kind of hubris.
Sure.

Deny the facts on the figures I laid.

Instead, you get personal because you cannot argue.

I'm done with you! Best of luck.

DB2
Posts: 893
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DB2 » Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

Kookaburra wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:52 pm
I found the following trio of messages above amusing. Paraphrasing:

-The virus will return worse in the fall.

-That is already priced in.

-How do you know it will be returning worse in the fall?

So one person is certain it’s coming back, and that is the basis for future stock market shocks ahead. The next agrees with the premise, but says it’s already known with such certainty that the market has already adjusted for it. The third person questions the certainty of whether it will happen, which inherently questions how the market could price it in with such certainty.

Let this serve as our daily reminder that: nobody knows nothing.
I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 3:28 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:21 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:42 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm

We are in a depression...and it might get worse.
By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions in more recent years.

What we are experiencing economically is a minor inconvenience compared to an actual depression.
It may someday get that bad, we simply don't know, but we are a LONG ways from there currently.
I think you are insulting people I know who are permanently laid off and cannot find work. Unemployment is not cutting it (their salaries were above the benefits) and they have family. Telling them this is a minor inconvenience? That sounds pompous to me.
Yes, being unemployed is terrible, and people are suffering. But, surely you realize there are different levels of suffering.
With the short duration of this (so far), the federal and state response, and the existing social safety net (such as it is), all make the current situation vastly different from an actual depression. If we do get to that point, I assure you the current situation will seem like a minor inconvenience in retrospect.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

marcopolo
Posts: 2951
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:22 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Wed May 20, 2020 3:34 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:24 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm


We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think all will be fine and it's just a temporary slow down. This whole notion that was sold to the public a couple of months ago was ridiculous. This shutdown was going to be incredibly destructive...and it has been.

Real unemployment is probably over 20% (lots of furloughed people are going to be permanently laid off - not reflected in the incredibly high 14.7% figure - and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer) and we are looking at a 30% drop in GDP. Over 100,000 small businesses have gone out of business already. All of this alone is depressionary by any historical measure. And there are other historical bad figures.

We are looking at a 3-4 trillion dollar deficit at minimum. Maybe higher still.

Covid cases are rising in some states as they open and daily death counts still very high.

In addition, the vast majority of scientists claim this virus is going to come back notably stronger in the fall. This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas. How is the economy going to further hold up when this second hit happens?

Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.

[Political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

All of this is going to continue to be depressionary. The question is, how much is permanent. It is going to take years to recover from this as it stands today. And then you have record debt levels across government levels, consumer, student loans, and corporations. Lots of bankruptcies coming even with some further bailouts likely.

The market today is priced to absolute perfection and based on the most optimistic outcome (hey, I hope it's right!).

Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
I didn't make up those numbers. So, I have been right. These are historically depressionary numbers! These are incredibly bad. If you refuse to believe them that is up to you. I saw it coming and it wasn't hard. Basic economics. I rest my case.

And the writing is largely on the wall for the rest of the year. This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.

You think your post(s) are just presenting numbers (that you didn't make up)!?!?

No doom and gloom predictions buried in there at all?!?

LOL

Like I said, you might be right, but pretending that it is all pre-determined is a certain kind of hubris.
Sure.

Deny the facts on the figures I laid.

Instead, you get personal because you cannot argue.

I'm done with you! Best of luck.


You mean "facts" like:

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm

...and it might get worse.

Real unemployment is probably over 20%

and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer

Maybe higher still.

This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas.

Regulations and taxes could dramatically change based on the election outcome and into 2021.
You seem to be confusing "facts" and "numbers" with "opinions".

Best of luck to you as well.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

minimalistmarc
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed May 20, 2020 3:56 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:34 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:24 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 1:16 pm



Thank you for essentially making my point.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong. You may also want to consider the possibility that you don't either.

In any case, I was responding to a poster who claimed that no one was making sich dire claims back on March.

Not only were they doing that then, they continue to do so today. They might be right, or not.

I rest my case.
I didn't make up those numbers. So, I have been right. These are historically depressionary numbers! These are incredibly bad. If you refuse to believe them that is up to you. I saw it coming and it wasn't hard. Basic economics. I rest my case.

And the writing is largely on the wall for the rest of the year. This virus is not magically going away anytime soon and it will return worse in the fall.

You think your post(s) are just presenting numbers (that you didn't make up)!?!?

No doom and gloom predictions buried in there at all?!?

LOL

Like I said, you might be right, but pretending that it is all pre-determined is a certain kind of hubris.
Sure.

Deny the facts on the figures I laid.

Instead, you get personal because you cannot argue.

I'm done with you! Best of luck.


You mean "facts" like:

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm

...and it might get worse.

Real unemployment is probably over 20%

and major white collar layoffs are surely coming this summer

Maybe higher still.

This is going to likely force more lockdowns, stay-at-homes, etc. Schools are likely not to open up in the fall in most areas.

Regulations and taxes could dramatically change based on the election outcome and into 2021.
You seem to be confusing "facts" and "numbers" with "opinions".

Best of luck to you as well.
Yea but they saw it coming in jan so now they’re an oracle.

It’s a lucky market timer’s swan song we’ve seen many times before. They get it right once and then think it is skill rather than luck and get it wrong many times thereafter

valleyrock
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by valleyrock » Thu May 21, 2020 8:46 am


By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
Are you sure about that?

Elysium
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu May 21, 2020 9:51 am

Stef wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:30 pm
marcopolo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:24 pm
Here was a guys who thought equities were going to zero. Lots of follow-up posts where he expected a depression, several people agreed with him
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
When I click on the user: The requested user does not exist.

What a bummer! He made the thread on March 23rd.
Never underestimate that message boards, forums, social media platforms are always filled with anonymous folks who have an agenda such as fear mongering on the bearish side, or extreme touting on the bullish side. The same is true in the financial media. If one wants to be bombarded at any time - there is never a shortage of ammunition and shells flying around "out there". Feeding into it is exactly what the intent of the poster's message is designed to do.

Focus on the path directly in front of you and where it leads as you tune out the noise that is always all around us.

Not sure if the particular poster quoted above who is now not in existence under that handle has reappeared under another, but I'm sure we have all noticed such behavior many times with posters who appear, disappear, reappear many times to promote their agenda. Anybody remember WanderingDoc and his agenda? 8-)

Fear sells. The sky is falling sells. Anxiety begets anxiety. It's very easy for message board posters to get caught up in the fear of others. Whether or not the poster above named mathguy3021 actually did sell all of his equities or not - we'll never know. Not that it really matters for any of our own portfolios, but in spite of those with an agenda - there are plenty who are honest, concerned, sharing and providing excellent advice.

CyclingDuo
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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firebirdparts
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by firebirdparts » Thu May 21, 2020 10:09 am

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm


By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
you're going to be in the running for internet semantic argument award of the year.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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1789
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 1789 » Thu May 21, 2020 12:21 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
They know what they don't know. That's crucial in life including investing.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

Mrmetalpole
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Mrmetalpole » Thu May 21, 2020 12:31 pm


nigel_ht
Posts: 682
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm

Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.

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1789
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 1789 » Thu May 21, 2020 1:00 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.
It doesn't matter what he tells to DB2. But it matters what DB2 tells himself/herself. Does he/she believe he has a general ability to see things over other people? Does he/she believes he knows something that other people don't know. Does he/she think this was due to his/her ability or he/she got lucky. Let's assume you are DB2. What would you think of yourself? That's the key question i would answer to myself and not someone else, if i were DB2. I would answer this easily for myself, for my good. Remember lots of wealth is being destroyed with overconfidence. And remember again there is many people went to cash in February and many still on waiting on sidelines.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

nigel_ht
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Thu May 21, 2020 10:42 pm

1789 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 1:00 pm

Let's assume you are DB2. What would you think of yourself? That's the key question i would answer to myself and not someone else, if i were DB2. I would answer this easily for myself, for my good. Remember lots of wealth is being destroyed with overconfidence. And remember again there is many people went to cash in February and many still on waiting on sidelines.
What would I think? I would think I noticed something as obvious as 11M people being quarantined and the second largest economy grind to a halt in Jan because it was announced on every news channel on earth.

I would think that it doesn’t take any special insight to say “well that’s not going to be good for the market” and move to limit my downside as Jack Bogle suggested might happen 3-4 times in an investors lifetime.

And folks that moved out of the market in Feb are around 10% ahead of buy and hold for the equity part of their portfolio.

If they are on the sideline in May it’s because they aren’t overconfident and expect a V shaped recovery this quickly when we have very high unemployment, large numbers of struggling businesses and continued health concerns.

The folks that are overconfident believe the bottom was already reached and that this couldn’t possibly be a bull trap because “nobody knows nothing” and “this time isn’t different”.

Which I agree...this time isn’t likely different and if this bear follows past bears that this was a bull trap and we have at least another year worth of pain before we recover. Plenty or time and opportunities to get back in the stock market.

Given I still have 35% in the market I’ll catch any rise and be happy.

Given I have 30% cash I have a lot of dry power and I’ll be able to take advantage of any crash and be happy.

The rest are bonds and gold which help steady the portfolio in turbulent times. So I can be happy.

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1789
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 1789 » Fri May 22, 2020 12:06 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:42 pm
1789 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 1:00 pm

Let's assume you are DB2. What would you think of yourself? That's the key question i would answer to myself and not someone else, if i were DB2. I would answer this easily for myself, for my good. Remember lots of wealth is being destroyed with overconfidence. And remember again there is many people went to cash in February and many still on waiting on sidelines.
What would I think? I would think I noticed something as obvious as 11M people being quarantined and the second largest economy grind to a halt in Jan because it was announced on every news channel on earth.

I would think that it doesn’t take any special insight to say “well that’s not going to be good for the market” and move to limit my downside as Jack Bogle suggested might happen 3-4 times in an investors lifetime.

And folks that moved out of the market in Feb are around 10% ahead of buy and hold for the equity part of their portfolio.

If they are on the sideline in May it’s because they aren’t overconfident and expect a V shaped recovery this quickly when we have very high unemployment, large numbers of struggling businesses and continued health concerns.

The folks that are overconfident believe the bottom was already reached and that this couldn’t possibly be a bull trap because “nobody knows nothing” and “this time isn’t different”.

Which I agree...this time isn’t likely different and if this bear follows past bears that this was a bull trap and we have at least another year worth of pain before we recover. Plenty or time and opportunities to get back in the stock market.

Given I still have 35% in the market I’ll catch any rise and be happy.

Given I have 30% cash I have a lot of dry power and I’ll be able to take advantage of any crash and be happy.

The rest are bonds and gold which help steady the portfolio in turbulent times. So I can be happy.
nigel_ht

When Bogle refers recessions as opportunities that one can have 3-4 times in a lifetime, he does not refer it as a point where you do a tactical asset allocation changes. Please remind here with a reference if you think otherwise. Bogle himself did a change in his AA before dot com bust and he had his excuses as documented everywhere in videos , and well known to community. I brought a question to you because all your post was on the basis of outcomes which have experienced. It is very simple. One can make a bet by looking at political events, pandemics, tentions in middle east tension, possible oil crises etc... but one can always be wrong when trying to predict the impacts on these things on stock market, either with timing or with magnitude wise. If i were DB2 i would tell myself i got this one right, but i wont assume that i am smarter than other people and i can see things others don’t. That would lead to trouble for a long term investor. I Imagine you would agree with me on this point.No? Of course my post is not intended to be a personal analysis of what DB2 did or you might have done. It is a general response to anyone who think they can see things clearly and can do tactical moves. Humans are hard wired to ignore their losses and always talk about what they got right. This is about all of us.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

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Stef
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stef » Fri May 22, 2020 12:55 am

How many people are there that got it wrong in the past and are still waiting to re-enter the market? Always easy to call the winner when the game is already over. Everything is obvious in hindsight.

For the few that got it right this year there are thousands that got it wrong. Of course only the ones that got it right will post here.

nigel_ht
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Fri May 22, 2020 6:54 am

1789 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 12:06 am
When Bogle refers recessions as opportunities that one can have 3-4 times in a lifetime, he does not refer it as a point where you do a tactical asset allocation changes. Please remind here with a reference if you think otherwise.
“I’d say, never be out of the stock market. It just makes no sense to me whatsoever. But maybe you can trim taking 15 percentage points off the table or something like that.

ETF.com: You mean 15 percentage points of straight equity exposure, for example?

Bogle: Yes.

ETF.com: If you were going to go in that direction, pulling 15 percent out of your equity-type risk allocation, do you play defense in T-bills or do you go more into a total bond market product like the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND | A-96)? What do you do?

Bogle: Well, I go to basically short-term and intermediate-term municipals in my personal account, and, in my retirement plan account, which is my largest asset here, I use intermediate-term corporate and short-term corporate debt.”

https://www.etf.com/sections/features/2 ... nopaging=1
Bogle himself did a change in his AA before dot com bust and he had his excuses as documented everywhere in videos , and well known to community.
If it is well known then why ask me for a quote?
I brought a question to you because all your post was on the basis of outcomes which have experienced. It is very simple. One can make a bet by looking at political events, pandemics, tentions in middle east tension, possible oil crises etc... but one can always be wrong when trying to predict the impacts on these things on stock market, either with timing or with magnitude wise.
Yes, it is a weapon or tool that can cause the user harm even when used correctly. There is risk.

Use sparingly.
If i were DB2 i would tell myself i got this one right, but i wont assume that i am smarter than other people and i can see things others don’t. That would lead to trouble for a long term investor. I Imagine you would agree with me on this point.No? Of course my post is not intended to be a personal analysis of what DB2 did or you might have done. It is a general response to anyone who think they can see things clearly and can do tactical moves. Humans are hard wired to ignore their losses and always talk about what they got right. This is about all of us.
I would say that there are obvious black swans and there are less obvious black swans. This one was an obvious one.

What folks around here want you to do is ignore the obvious because “nobody knows nothing”.

It’s fine if you don’t want to make defensive tactical moves. Just like it’s okay if you don’t want to do small cap or value or whatever tilts. Saying these things are hard to do well and not for you is one thing.

It’s another to say nobody can do it successfully and it has no benefit. Just like tilts or tailing stops or different rebalancing options or any other of the more advanced flourishes folks puts on their buy and hold strategies.

It is better to say you need to fully understand the costs of a defensive reallocation (ie taxes and reduction in performance), understand past behavior of the market, think out in advance and document in your IPS the entry and exit criteria for your defensive allocation and understand that you shouldn’t need do this more than once a decade or 2-3 times your investment career.

And you probably don’t need to bother at all early in your investment career when your portfolio is small.

And Jack says it the best:

“Well, I think that is a weapon that should be used sparingly. You're taking a gamble when you get out.”

He doesn’t say, “stay the course” but “use sparingly”.

Elysium
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent. If someone did this without telling anyone, all that means is they acted on a guess but did not had the courage or conviction to share with others for fear of being wrong, ridiculed for being wrong. There was one poster here who goes by the name "CnC" who made his thoughts public and then followed up, even he has lost interest or his sense of direction after his initial prediction was correct, and after the re-bound in March which most of the naysayers got wrong, they all have lost sense of direction on what to do. This is why it is so important to know your full analysis beforehand so it can be verified.

Second, could it still be luck? yes, that possibility exists, but if you can do it twice then the chance of that being luck reduces and at least you get credited for being gutsy to act on a lucky guess and in fact get lucky indeed to buy back in at right time. Do it multiple times, and then you can build a track record of being successful. Think investing is easy?

Third, what "train wreck" are you referring to? the economy is but the stock market isn't. As of today, some areas of the stock market are actually up YTD. Technology and Healthcare sectors are positive, nearly 5% if you follow some indexes, and S&P 500 is barely in correction territory. Bonds are up, Long Term bonds are way up. So, in other words even if the analysis on economy taking a hit was correct, it did not translate into Stock Market taking a hit, after the initial shock, and the fed intervention everything is back.

In fact, this is what some of us have predicted here all along. Even if you get direction right on economy, with fed stepping in, and stimulus injection from Govt, we are going to avoid great depression. What did someone accomplish by getting out, unless they didn't buy back at March 23 lows? they are still waiting, hoping for another fall back to same prices so that they get a second chance to get it right. This is the problem with timing, you get one right, but miss the other, then your whole exercise falls apart.

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canadianbacon
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by canadianbacon » Fri May 22, 2020 9:19 am

Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent.
You are kinder than I am. I assume that anyone who posts/brags about how they did X and got resulting performance Y, that it is either a fabrication, or they are acting like the person who goes to the casino but only talks about the wins. I include both bulls and bears in this.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Elysium
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Fri May 22, 2020 9:38 am

canadianbacon wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:19 am
Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent.
You are kinder than I am. I assume that anyone who posts/brags about how they did X and got resulting performance Y, that it is either a fabrication, or they are acting like the person who goes to the casino but only talks about the wins. I include both bulls and bears in this.
This is the truth in most instances, however, if we don't give benefit of doubt for them to prove their claims, then it discourages people from coming forth even when they are honest. I'd like them to put forth their claims for rigorous examination by other members :wink:

We all have our guesses, it is okay to have them but not act on them. Some people act on it, they get lucky in one direction but more often than not they don't get back in on time, this is because of a fundamental misunderstanding of the market mechanics. It is almost impossible to get it right twice.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Fri May 22, 2020 10:06 am

Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent. If someone did this without telling anyone, all that means is they acted on a guess but did not had the courage or conviction to share with others for fear of being wrong, ridiculed for being wrong.
I can certainly understand the lack of desire to be pounced on in this forum. Several folks have done what you've asked only be needlessly ridiculed and attacked on this forum. Why is that a positive thing?

So meh, if all you want is an echo chamber, have at it.
There was one poster here who goes by the name "CnC" who made his thoughts public and then followed up, even he has lost interest or his sense of direction after his initial prediction was correct, and after the re-bound in March which most of the naysayers got wrong, they all have lost sense of direction on what to do. This is why it is so important to know your full analysis beforehand so it can be verified.
Because of one month of gains you claim they have "lost all sense of direction". That's hardly true. You're happy to call bottom in March and taking a victory lap when historically bears last longer.

Maybe he thought the constant slings and arrows from posters like you made it not worthwhile to expend any effort here any longer? So I have little patience for demands such as yours.
Second, could it still be luck? yes, that possibility exists, but if you can do it twice then the chance of that being luck reduces and at least you get credited for being gutsy to act on a lucky guess and in fact get lucky indeed to buy back in at right time. Do it multiple times, and then you can build a track record of being successful. Think investing is easy?
Given that we follow Bogle then this is something you do maybe a couple times in an investing career and generally a decade or more apart. How does one "establish a track record"? So your demand for a "track record" as a necessary requirement for discussion is bogus.

What is your track record to disagree with Jack Bogle? Why should anyone listen to you?
Third, what "train wreck" are you referring to? the economy is but the stock market isn't. As of today, some areas of the stock market are actually up YTD. Technology and Healthcare sectors are positive, nearly 5% if you follow some indexes, and S&P 500 is barely in correction territory. Bonds are up, Long Term bonds are way up. So, in other words even if the analysis on economy taking a hit was correct, it did not translate into Stock Market taking a hit, after the initial shock, and the fed intervention everything is back.
When you read the posts in 2008 there was a period when folks called bottom and that it was all over as the market rallied to around 1,400. Then in 2009 it bottomed at 700. In 2002 the S&P rallied to 1,200 before bottoming at 800.

Ever wonder why there's even a phrase "Bull Trap"? Hint: It's not because it rarely ever happens.

Perhaps the ones that are claiming "This time is different" are you guys? That maybe we shouldn't be so quick to ridicule or attack folks with differing opinions and demand to see a track record? Nah...that would require a little knowledge of history, a bit of introspection and small dose of humility. Not to mention sufficient conviction in our own beliefs so differing opinions aren't seen as a threat that needed to be ridiculed or attacked.

Which is why Jack Bogle was awesome...he had all of those qualities.
In fact, this is what some of us have predicted here all along. Even if you get direction right on economy, with fed stepping in, and stimulus injection from Govt, we are going to avoid great depression. What did someone accomplish by getting out, unless they didn't buy back at March 23 lows? they are still waiting, hoping for another fall back to same prices so that they get a second chance to get it right. This is the problem with timing, you get one right, but miss the other, then your whole exercise falls apart.
And now you're predicting we're going to avoid a depression? Nice. In the 2nd inning of what will be a long game? Really? And folks that bailed in Feb are the ones speculating? Riiight.

Want a big "Mission Accomplished" banner to put behind you for a photo op?

Maybe you want to take that victory lap on May 20, 2022 and not May 22, 2020. Then maybe you get to have a record to be able to say "I told you so that this time WAS different...that wasn't a bull trap!".

Of course, you might have just been lucky and not prescient. Perhaps you should call that a few more times correctly before taking that victory lap...

Elysium
Posts: 2820
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Fri May 22, 2020 2:10 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:06 am
Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am
DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm

I'm up 22% for the year. I must know something. I saw this train-wreck coming in Jan/early Feb.

By the way, "nobody knows nothing" is a self-contradiction. If nobody knows nothing, then how does anyone using that statement know enough to say that?
DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent. If someone did this without telling anyone, all that means is they acted on a guess but did not had the courage or conviction to share with others for fear of being wrong, ridiculed for being wrong.
I can certainly understand the lack of desire to be pounced on in this forum. Several folks have done what you've asked only be needlessly ridiculed and attacked on this forum. Why is that a positive thing?

So meh, if all you want is an echo chamber, have at it.
There was one poster here who goes by the name "CnC" who made his thoughts public and then followed up, even he has lost interest or his sense of direction after his initial prediction was correct, and after the re-bound in March which most of the naysayers got wrong, they all have lost sense of direction on what to do. This is why it is so important to know your full analysis beforehand so it can be verified.
Because of one month of gains you claim they have "lost all sense of direction". That's hardly true. You're happy to call bottom in March and taking a victory lap when historically bears last longer.

Maybe he thought the constant slings and arrows from posters like you made it not worthwhile to expend any effort here any longer? So I have little patience for demands such as yours.
Second, could it still be luck? yes, that possibility exists, but if you can do it twice then the chance of that being luck reduces and at least you get credited for being gutsy to act on a lucky guess and in fact get lucky indeed to buy back in at right time. Do it multiple times, and then you can build a track record of being successful. Think investing is easy?
Given that we follow Bogle then this is something you do maybe a couple times in an investing career and generally a decade or more apart. How does one "establish a track record"? So your demand for a "track record" as a necessary requirement for discussion is bogus.

What is your track record to disagree with Jack Bogle? Why should anyone listen to you?
Third, what "train wreck" are you referring to? the economy is but the stock market isn't. As of today, some areas of the stock market are actually up YTD. Technology and Healthcare sectors are positive, nearly 5% if you follow some indexes, and S&P 500 is barely in correction territory. Bonds are up, Long Term bonds are way up. So, in other words even if the analysis on economy taking a hit was correct, it did not translate into Stock Market taking a hit, after the initial shock, and the fed intervention everything is back.
When you read the posts in 2008 there was a period when folks called bottom and that it was all over as the market rallied to around 1,400. Then in 2009 it bottomed at 700. In 2002 the S&P rallied to 1,200 before bottoming at 800.

Ever wonder why there's even a phrase "Bull Trap"? Hint: It's not because it rarely ever happens.

Perhaps the ones that are claiming "This time is different" are you guys? That maybe we shouldn't be so quick to ridicule or attack folks with differing opinions and demand to see a track record? Nah...that would require a little knowledge of history, a bit of introspection and small dose of humility. Not to mention sufficient conviction in our own beliefs so differing opinions aren't seen as a threat that needed to be ridiculed or attacked.

Which is why Jack Bogle was awesome...he had all of those qualities.
In fact, this is what some of us have predicted here all along. Even if you get direction right on economy, with fed stepping in, and stimulus injection from Govt, we are going to avoid great depression. What did someone accomplish by getting out, unless they didn't buy back at March 23 lows? they are still waiting, hoping for another fall back to same prices so that they get a second chance to get it right. This is the problem with timing, you get one right, but miss the other, then your whole exercise falls apart.
And now you're predicting we're going to avoid a depression? Nice. In the 2nd inning of what will be a long game? Really? And folks that bailed in Feb are the ones speculating? Riiight.

Want a big "Mission Accomplished" banner to put behind you for a photo op?

Maybe you want to take that victory lap on May 20, 2022 and not May 22, 2020. Then maybe you get to have a record to be able to say "I told you so that this time WAS different...that wasn't a bull trap!".

Of course, you might have just been lucky and not prescient. Perhaps you should call that a few more times correctly before taking that victory lap...
nigle_ht: I read through your response, trying to make sense of something I can respond, but unfortunately all I am left with is this phrase from Macbeth “is a tale, told by ....., full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”

Few things though:

One, Anyone making market timing claims should need to show proof, that is the basic minimum standard, otherwise they risk being laughed off. Can't do that? then don't post making claims you saw something coming, you sidestepped etc. There are many other forums on the internet where that goes on every day. Here you will be held to a higher standard.

Two, I am not making any predictions, fully invested almost always, has worked out well, and likely will continue so. In any case much better than most market timers, that's for sure. As for whether we are over the economic downturn, far from it, but stock market baring a few price drops here and there is not going to look like great depression. Yes, I am confident of that.

Three, No one is taking any victory lap, other than those claiming to be market timers. Long term Bogleheads don't take victory laps, we invest according to our plan and stay the course. Our objective is to reach our goals, and we may not take a victory lap when we reach there, but a little stroll through the park perhaps, you are welcome to join.

nigel_ht
Posts: 682
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm

Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:10 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:06 am
Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:14 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Elysium wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am


DB2,
Can you link to a post where you explained your thoughts when you you saw this coming in Jan/Feb, with specific actions you were going to take, with dates when you planned to execute them before you did them.
Does it matter? Even if he does you're just going to say he was lucky.

The train wreck was obvious because the disruption of the global supply chain was publicized in the NYT on Jan 22 when China locked down 11M people and quickly followed by more and more lockdowns and delayed factory reopening and restricted travel throughout the country.

Folks that claim that "there's always bad news" ignores the difference between "bad news" and "unprecedented shutdown in the 2nd largest economy". That we ended up shutting down a couple months later was immaterial to whether or not the global economy was going to have a major downturn this year simply because of Chinese actions.

And by January 22 there were already US cases so predicting that the US might have to shutdown didn't require expertise in viral epidemiology.
First, yes, it does matter very much in establishing credibility of these claims. It matters not because we do not trust the claim, but when someone makes a post public outlining their thinking and then places actions before everyone, that shows conviction and intent. If someone did this without telling anyone, all that means is they acted on a guess but did not had the courage or conviction to share with others for fear of being wrong, ridiculed for being wrong.
I can certainly understand the lack of desire to be pounced on in this forum. Several folks have done what you've asked only be needlessly ridiculed and attacked on this forum. Why is that a positive thing?

So meh, if all you want is an echo chamber, have at it.
There was one poster here who goes by the name "CnC" who made his thoughts public and then followed up, even he has lost interest or his sense of direction after his initial prediction was correct, and after the re-bound in March which most of the naysayers got wrong, they all have lost sense of direction on what to do. This is why it is so important to know your full analysis beforehand so it can be verified.
Because of one month of gains you claim they have "lost all sense of direction". That's hardly true. You're happy to call bottom in March and taking a victory lap when historically bears last longer.

Maybe he thought the constant slings and arrows from posters like you made it not worthwhile to expend any effort here any longer? So I have little patience for demands such as yours.
Second, could it still be luck? yes, that possibility exists, but if you can do it twice then the chance of that being luck reduces and at least you get credited for being gutsy to act on a lucky guess and in fact get lucky indeed to buy back in at right time. Do it multiple times, and then you can build a track record of being successful. Think investing is easy?
Given that we follow Bogle then this is something you do maybe a couple times in an investing career and generally a decade or more apart. How does one "establish a track record"? So your demand for a "track record" as a necessary requirement for discussion is bogus.

What is your track record to disagree with Jack Bogle? Why should anyone listen to you?
Third, what "train wreck" are you referring to? the economy is but the stock market isn't. As of today, some areas of the stock market are actually up YTD. Technology and Healthcare sectors are positive, nearly 5% if you follow some indexes, and S&P 500 is barely in correction territory. Bonds are up, Long Term bonds are way up. So, in other words even if the analysis on economy taking a hit was correct, it did not translate into Stock Market taking a hit, after the initial shock, and the fed intervention everything is back.
When you read the posts in 2008 there was a period when folks called bottom and that it was all over as the market rallied to around 1,400. Then in 2009 it bottomed at 700. In 2002 the S&P rallied to 1,200 before bottoming at 800.

Ever wonder why there's even a phrase "Bull Trap"? Hint: It's not because it rarely ever happens.

Perhaps the ones that are claiming "This time is different" are you guys? That maybe we shouldn't be so quick to ridicule or attack folks with differing opinions and demand to see a track record? Nah...that would require a little knowledge of history, a bit of introspection and small dose of humility. Not to mention sufficient conviction in our own beliefs so differing opinions aren't seen as a threat that needed to be ridiculed or attacked.

Which is why Jack Bogle was awesome...he had all of those qualities.
In fact, this is what some of us have predicted here all along. Even if you get direction right on economy, with fed stepping in, and stimulus injection from Govt, we are going to avoid great depression. What did someone accomplish by getting out, unless they didn't buy back at March 23 lows? they are still waiting, hoping for another fall back to same prices so that they get a second chance to get it right. This is the problem with timing, you get one right, but miss the other, then your whole exercise falls apart.
And now you're predicting we're going to avoid a depression? Nice. In the 2nd inning of what will be a long game? Really? And folks that bailed in Feb are the ones speculating? Riiight.

Want a big "Mission Accomplished" banner to put behind you for a photo op?

Maybe you want to take that victory lap on May 20, 2022 and not May 22, 2020. Then maybe you get to have a record to be able to say "I told you so that this time WAS different...that wasn't a bull trap!".

Of course, you might have just been lucky and not prescient. Perhaps you should call that a few more times correctly before taking that victory lap...
nigle_ht: I read through your response, trying to make sense of something I can respond, but unfortunately all I am left with is this phrase from Macbeth “is a tale, told by ....., full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”

Few things though:

One, Anyone making market timing claims should need to show proof, that is the basic minimum standard, otherwise they risk being laughed off. Can't do that? then don't post making claims you saw something coming, you sidestepped etc. There are many other forums on the internet where that goes on every day.

Two, I am not making any predictions, fully invested almost always, has worked out well, and likely will. In any case much better than the market timers, that's for sure. As for whether we are over the economic downturn, far from it, but stock market baring a few price drops here and there is not going to look like great depression. Yes, I am confident of that.

Three, No one is taking any victory lap, other than those claiming to be market timers. Long term Bogleheads don't take victory laps, we invest according to our plan and stay the course. Our objective is to reach our goals, and we may not take a victory lap when we reach there, but a little stroll through the park perhaps, you are welcome to join.
One: We don't have to prove anything to you to expect civil conversation. ESPECIALLY in the context of discussing something that Jack Bogle suggested was okay.

You also refuse to address that this isn't something you do more than once or twice in an investment career so there isn't any way to establish a track record. The proof you ask for in exchange for general politeness (ie not being laughed off) isn't possible.

Two: You just made a prediction. Without the conviction to actually go all in on your confidence. What's your allocation?

Three: By assuming that the bottom was already in and all the market timers were wrong is taking a victory lap. It's arrogant and condescending.

There were plenty of things for you to address but you'd rather attempt to insult me.

dvvader
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by dvvader » Fri May 22, 2020 3:03 pm

One of the goals of "Bogleheads-style" investing is to achieve market returns (less fees and taxes, which can be minimized using low cost index funds and tax efficient fund placement), and the only way to guarantee market returns is to remain invested in the market, at a pre-determined and documented asset allocation, at all times, regardless of market conditions. There will be ups, there will be downs (even some you can "see coming from a mile away"), but historically, mostly ups (past performance does not guarantee future results aside). Any deviation from this is market timing and introduces unnecessary risk, in my opinion.

This pandemic is just the most recent example of the dangers/risks associated with market timing. People who sold in January/February are probably still feeling pretty smart; but people who sold in mid-March, probably not so much. What's ironic is the news was almost certainly worse in mid-March than it was earlier in the year. You can be right, but still be wrong.

To answer the question posed in the OP, I don't know. But does it matter?

Elysium
Posts: 2820
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Fri May 22, 2020 5:23 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
One: We don't have to prove anything to you to expect civil conversation. ESPECIALLY in the context of discussing something that Jack Bogle suggested was okay.
Where is the incivility in my response. I did not find anything in the response that you are arguing for or against, so it sounded like "all sound and fury, signifying nothing", I am sorry if you found that insulting. On the contrary, you can say something politely as you said above but can be very insulting, where you insinuate that Jack Bogle supported market timing. This is a falsehood repeated by some over here, deliberate I would say, debunked many times over, so I won't go into it.
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
You also refuse to address that this isn't something you do more than once or twice in an investment career so there isn't any way to establish a track record. The proof you ask for in exchange for general politeness (ie not being laughed off) isn't possible.
Why do you have to do it once or twice in your investment lifetime? I don't get it, why can't a proper retirement plan with a glidepath work out very well in your favor. If you have never done this before, and just once or twice, how do you even get it right, as with everything in life you need experience, for that you need to have done this many times, made many mistakes, and learned from it. So the idea that a buy & hold investor all of a sudden develops a penchant for market timing goes out of the window. You don't do that, instead you develop a proper risk management and a glidepath plan, that will take you there gradually.
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
Two: You just made a prediction. Without the conviction to actually go all in on your confidence. What's your allocation?
I made a guess, we all have our guesses, we are allowed to guess anything so long as we don't act on it. I make guesses every day on several things, but I do not act on them. Just like I have these guesses, other people have them too, that's what makes a market, so we end up realizing that my guess is only as good as yours, and leave things alone. My allocation is 70% in equities currently, models the broad market more or less, and it is off about 6% YTD. I did re-balance on March 16 and 25 when everything looked gloomy, not happily, but did it since my plan asked for it. I am fully invested, with a glidepath that should work out in managing the risk. There are no guarantees, but it is the best that I have.
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
Three: By assuming that the bottom was already in and all the market timers were wrong is taking a victory lap. It's arrogant and condescending.
I have no idea whether the bottom is in or not, I can make a guess, it has no consequence since I don't act on my guesses. Market timers on the other hand places their money on the line by betting against the market, as has been often said you need to be right twice to get it right. A lot of people can make a guess in one direction, but then cannot do it twice. There is no need to take any victory lap, we know from history that most people who try timing will get it wrong. It is a fact, so need for us to know whether the bottom is in today, or six months from now.

In fact most timing models don't even try to get it right, their intent is to be out of the market because they are driven more by the fear of losses. They would justify being out of the market with a small gain at the end of the year, and miss out the whole recovery, in the end get a smoother return compared to the long only buy & hold portfolio, then point to the lower risk as justification for lower returns. But this conveniently forgets that you had an AA in the first place that you determined was necessary to reach your goals, and now if you earned less then you aren't getting to that goal. There is a real cost to market timing, regardless of what many of these TAA models say.

Rosencrantz1
Posts: 514
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Fri May 22, 2020 6:07 pm

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm


Even if a vaccination is released by end of year (which is extremely optimistic), it will take many, many months to ramp up for millions of people.
Is this a guess? I ask because nearly every serious vaccine candidate I read about, the company (JnJ, Moderna, etc) is already ramping up production even though they're not finished with human trials. To me, this indicates quite a lot of confidence in their candidates (and their safety profiles).

nigel_ht
Posts: 682
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Fri May 22, 2020 6:27 pm

Elysium wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:23 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
One: We don't have to prove anything to you to expect civil conversation. ESPECIALLY in the context of discussing something that Jack Bogle suggested was okay.
Where is the incivility in my response. I did not find anything in the response that you are arguing for or against, so it sounded like "all sound and fury, signifying nothing", I am sorry if you found that insulting. On the contrary, you can say something politely as you said above but can be very insulting, where you insinuate that Jack Bogle supported market timing. This is a falsehood repeated by some over here, deliberate I would say, debunked many times over, so I won't go into it.
His words are quoted in this thread. So no, it's not a falsehood and you're simply dodging the issue.

He doesn't advocate for "market timing" which is a straw man because "market timing" is the systemic attempt to beat the market by entering and exiting many times. What he does do is simply answer the question of whether it's okay to go defensive to take some winnings off the table and clearly outlines a strategy if you want to do so: move no more than 15% of your equities out. Put it into bonds.

Makes sense. And he says "use this sparingly" just as he's only ever done this once. In the interview he could have answered the original question with "No, just stay the course". He does not. He says you can use this weapon sparingly because it's dangerous.

So if you follow his advice you'll never have a track record.
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 2:23 pm
You also refuse to address that this isn't something you do more than once or twice in an investment career so there isn't any way to establish a track record. The proof you ask for in exchange for general politeness (ie not being laughed off) isn't possible.
Why do you have to do it once or twice in your investment lifetime? I don't get it, why can't a proper retirement plan with a glidepath work out very well in your favor. If you have never done this before, and just once or twice, how do you even get it right, as with everything in life you need experience, for that you need to have done this many times, made many mistakes, and learned from it. So the idea that a buy & hold investor all of a sudden develops a penchant for market timing goes out of the window. You don't do that, instead you develop a proper risk management and a glidepath plan, that will take you there gradually.
Because you only have a few black swans in an investment lifetime. Of those fractal events some you can't or won't be able to act. Of the 1 or 2 remaining events whether you choose to act or not is up to you. Jack Bogle only did it once. In any case they are all a little different...so the past is a guide not a recipe.

"Proper retirement plans" work in normal investment periods. Some folks are lucky and these fractal events happen at innocuous times in their accumulation periods where there is lots of time to recovery or late in their retirement when it doesn't matter anymore.

However, sometimes you're carrying more risk than is prudent for the economic conditions of the time because your own time horizon. Either in isolation would be okay. Both together represents too much risk.

Which is exactly what happened to Jack. This is what's happening to many of us near retirement. He saw market valuations that made no sense and given he was retired he didn't have the luxury of riding it out. A tactical change into a more conservative AA to take winnings off the table was warranted because of two circumstances put together.

There is also no reason to not move back to an aggressive allocation if the stock market goes down another 50-60% from where we are. Call it market timing if you want but I'll move back to 70/30 if it happens. If it doesn't drop then I'll ease back into 60/40 over time. There is no need to "guess twice". It doesn't hurt me much to be conservative in my portfolio right now.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by LadyGeek » Fri May 22, 2020 6:35 pm

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Dennisl » Sat May 23, 2020 1:49 am

marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
I think most of us were a little nervous or at least following the market really closely. No one knew how this one was gonna play out. If the fed and congress didn’t bolster the economy, it would have gotten ugly. Half the articles out there say the worst is yet to come, while the other half says Spx is going to break 3k soon. I have since set my investments to auto and have slept much better since.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by marcopolo » Sat May 23, 2020 2:26 am

Dennisl wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:49 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
I think most of us were a little nervous or at least following the market really closely. No one knew how this one was gonna play out. If the fed and congress didn’t bolster the economy, it would have gotten ugly. Half the articles out there say the worst is yet to come, while the other half says Spx is going to break 3k soon. I have since set my investments to auto and have slept much better since.
Yes. I certainly understand why some people felt that way, and many still do. Not really questioning that. I was just surprised someone claimed that they did not recall many people expressing that kind of concern.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

mptfan
Posts: 5999
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by mptfan » Sat May 23, 2020 7:22 am

marcopolo wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 2:26 am
Dennisl wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:49 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
mptfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 6:08 am
Stef wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am
Where are all the people that sold in March because this time was different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time?
I don't recall lots of people saying in March that we were heading for the biggest crash of all time.
Really? That seemed like half the posts on this forum back then.

Before someone goes and counts them to prove me wrong, I am exaggerating to make a point. But, there were certainly a lot of threads/posts expressing that concern.
I think most of us were a little nervous or at least following the market really closely. No one knew how this one was gonna play out. If the fed and congress didn’t bolster the economy, it would have gotten ugly. Half the articles out there say the worst is yet to come, while the other half says Spx is going to break 3k soon. I have since set my investments to auto and have slept much better since.
Yes. I certainly understand why some people felt that way, and many still do. Not really questioning that. I was just surprised someone claimed that they did not recall many people expressing that kind of concern.
I recall people expressing concern. I questioned that "lots of people were saying this time is different and we were heading for the biggest crash of all time" ... that I don't recall.

Elysium
Posts: 2820
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Elysium » Sat May 23, 2020 8:00 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:27 pm
Because you only have a few black swans in an investment lifetime. Of those fractal events some you can't or won't be able to act. Of the 1 or 2 remaining events whether you choose to act or not is up to you. Jack Bogle only did it once. In any case they are all a little different...so the past is a guide not a recipe.

"Proper retirement plans" work in normal investment periods. Some folks are lucky and these fractal events happen at innocuous times in their accumulation periods where there is lots of time to recovery or late in their retirement when it doesn't matter anymore.

However, sometimes you're carrying more risk than is prudent for the economic conditions of the time because your own time horizon. Either in isolation would be okay. Both together represents too much risk.

Which is exactly what happened to Jack. This is what's happening to many of us near retirement. He saw market valuations that made no sense and given he was retired he didn't have the luxury of riding it out. A tactical change into a more conservative AA to take winnings off the table was warranted because of two circumstances put together.

There is also no reason to not move back to an aggressive allocation if the stock market goes down another 50-60% from where we are. Call it market timing if you want but I'll move back to 70/30 if it happens. If it doesn't drop then I'll ease back into 60/40 over time. There is no need to "guess twice". It doesn't hurt me much to be conservative in my portfolio right now.
You are completely wrong on all of this on many counts. I don't have the time to go over everything, instead I think you should spend some time understanding the concepts by following the Wiki more. Your quoting Jack and his life situation at that time is totally off context, he had very low marginal utility of wealth, so trying to draw a parallel to his retirement and his timeframe has no relevance to anyone else here. I say this to everyone who tries to follow any other famous investor, be it Bogle, Buffett, Larry, Ray Dalio, so on.. Their situations are very different from that of the average investor on this forum, even those who have large portfolios to manage.

Moving on from that, if you have developed a proper investment plan then you are in a position to handle any of these so called events, except really catastrophic events which I believe no one has any control over. This event is not it, unless the Governments all over the world were going to be totally clueless, and the severity itself were much larger. It was evident that neither of those are going to be that way, so some of us did say this in February and continue to say that.

As someone who had gone through 2000-02, 20008-09, and 2020-present, being fully invested, I would say this is all part of normal market cycles. I think you are getting confused with the unusually low volatile market we had from 2010-2019 thinking that is the normal, when in fact this is the normal market condition or should be. There are always uncertainties, and your AA should always reflect that. Failing to plan that and underestimating risk will end up pulling out at the wrong time. I can understand if you did that, and now wish to reduce risk permanently. No problem with that.

nigel_ht
Posts: 682
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by nigel_ht » Sat May 23, 2020 9:19 am

Elysium wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:00 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:27 pm
Because you only have a few black swans in an investment lifetime. Of those fractal events some you can't or won't be able to act. Of the 1 or 2 remaining events whether you choose to act or not is up to you. Jack Bogle only did it once. In any case they are all a little different...so the past is a guide not a recipe.

"Proper retirement plans" work in normal investment periods. Some folks are lucky and these fractal events happen at innocuous times in their accumulation periods where there is lots of time to recovery or late in their retirement when it doesn't matter anymore.

However, sometimes you're carrying more risk than is prudent for the economic conditions of the time because your own time horizon. Either in isolation would be okay. Both together represents too much risk.

Which is exactly what happened to Jack. This is what's happening to many of us near retirement. He saw market valuations that made no sense and given he was retired he didn't have the luxury of riding it out. A tactical change into a more conservative AA to take winnings off the table was warranted because of two circumstances put together.

There is also no reason to not move back to an aggressive allocation if the stock market goes down another 50-60% from where we are. Call it market timing if you want but I'll move back to 70/30 if it happens. If it doesn't drop then I'll ease back into 60/40 over time. There is no need to "guess twice". It doesn't hurt me much to be conservative in my portfolio right now.
You are completely wrong on all of this on many counts. I don't have the time to go over everything, instead I think you should spend some time understanding the concepts by following the Wiki more. Your quoting Jack and his life situation at that time is totally off context, he had very low marginal utility of wealth, so trying to draw a parallel to his retirement and his timeframe has no relevance to anyone else here. I say this to everyone who tries to follow any other famous investor, be it Bogle, Buffett, Larry, Ray Dalio, so on.. Their situations are very different from that of the average investor on this forum, even those who have large portfolios to manage.

Moving on from that, if you have developed a proper investment plan then you are in a position to handle any of these so called events, except really catastrophic events which I believe no one has any control over. This event is not it, unless the Governments all over the world were going to be totally clueless, and the severity itself were much larger. It was evident that neither of those are going to be that way, so some of us did say this in February and continue to say that.

As someone who had gone through 2000-02, 20008-09, and 2020-present, being fully invested, I would say this is all part of normal market cycles. I think you are getting confused with the unusually low volatile market we had from 2010-2019 thinking that is the normal, when in fact this is the normal market condition or should be. There are always uncertainties, and your AA should always reflect that. Failing to plan that and underestimating risk will end up pulling out at the wrong time. I can understand if you did that, and now wish to reduce risk permanently. No problem with that.
Nope. Not wrong, just a different opinion.

I see you still haven’t addressed what Bogle actually said but choose to attempt to belittle me instead as “completely wrong”, “out of context”, etc.

Why not read the interview and address how he wasn’t telling investors how to protect gains by moving 15% out of stocks and into bonds?

Lol...I went through 2000 and 2008 as well “fully invested”. And yes this IS part of the normal cycle...end of a business cycle and secular cycle. That you don’t get that but attempt to tell others to read the wiki some more is hilarious. I don’t think you know what a normal cycle looks like despite having gone through at least two of them.

Fractal events happen. One is happening now more or less as expected time wise. I expected it starting Nov with the election but the virus kicked it off early and much harder.

Say “this time is different” all you like but GDP dropped 4.8% in Q1, retail sales down 16%, unemployment at 14%. Q2 will be worse which puts us solidly into recession. This isn’t a guess...enough economic data is in that Q2 will be worse than Q1. The economic situation is so bad companies can’t afford to go bankrupt...lol but nope, according to you “this is not it”.

This IS it...your normal end of secular cycle volatility amped up by shutting down the global economy for 2 months. Moving to a safer AA during these times is prudent. Determining that the virus was going to trigger a downturn was easy since folks have been expecting the end of the cycle for a couple years now. It’s IN my IPS to go conservative (ie a stock allocation 100-age) near the end of business cycles so saying “you need to plan blah blah blah” is meaningless. I’m never out of market with old money so you saying you’re “fully invested” in your IPS is a big “so what?” So have I since the mid 90s and indexing since I read Scott Burns and his Couch Potato Portfolio.

Historically bears with recessions last longer and drop further. So the likelihood is this will be a lot more like 2008-2009 than one of the milder 6-8 month bears and more importantly the recovery is less likely to be V shaped.

I look at current situation and historical outcomes and determine two scenarios to plan for: most likely and most dangerous. Most of the time the probabilities for each are fairly far apart. Today they are grouped closer together than normal.

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unclescrooge
Posts: 4773
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by unclescrooge » Sat May 23, 2020 9:31 am

sabhen wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:54 am
The bottom is always revealed in hindsight. We invest with foresight.

The bear case seems to be always the smarter, more compelling, more insightful and best argued compared with the bullish case.

Markets are complex discounting systems that are counter-intuitive. The best investments are always when the mood is darkest. The worse is when the mood is euphoric. Pessimism and scepticism are good.
Probably the best post on this entire thread :beer

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