Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

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anoop
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by anoop » Thu May 21, 2020 10:41 pm

F150HD wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:36 pm
no clue who Tepper (?) is. Taffer? Trapper John? Jack Tripper?
https://www.businessinsider.com/david-t ... 013-8?op=1

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by David Jay » Thu May 21, 2020 11:00 pm

maxInfo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:32 pm
His arguments made a lot of sense...
Why do I hear Baby Huey in that statement?
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by JBTX » Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 pm

F150HD wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:36 pm
no clue who Tepper (?) is. Taffer? Trapper John? Jack Tripper?
Jack the ripper? Jake Tapper?

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Cycle » Thu May 21, 2020 11:24 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:24 am
The answer for you is "F": Open a Vanguard account, choose a target date fund, put all of your money into it, go into the "change password" option. Write a random password on a small piece of paper. This should be very randomized. Change your password. Log out. Eat the piece of paper.

If you can't do that, then your answer is "G": Hire an advisor who will siphon 1% from you every year and put you into high ER funds, but won't go selling to cash in a panic because some moron put out a newsletter to do so.

But do check in every couple years. Don't be this guy who had the state of Delaware cash out his Amazon stock in his E-Trade account and let it sit as cash in the unclaimed property account for 20 years. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/799345159

To OP, you need a plan. You should just be rebalancing during these times, better yet use target funds
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by NerveDoc » Thu May 21, 2020 11:53 pm

He's the one who fired Ron Rivera.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu May 21, 2020 11:59 pm

No, wait for Tepper to flash the “flush the toilet” signal then put all your money back into stock so you can catch the ride down again. :oops:

You need an Investment Policy Statement and the very first line should say I will not take advice from tv shows, CNBC, newspapers and anyone else. The second line should say - read the first sentence again! Then go on to describe your goals and how you will get there.

Funny, all those “experts” didn’t have a clue back in December or January, it’s only AFTER the fact that they come out and talk. That in and of itself ought to tell you something.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by bog007 » Fri May 22, 2020 2:13 am

good move

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tadamsmar
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by tadamsmar » Fri May 22, 2020 3:06 am

David Tepper?

He is actually a stock picker.

You aren’t doing what he is doing.

Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts.

The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach.

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maxInfo
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by maxInfo » Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:06 am
David Tepper?

He is actually a stock picker.

You aren’t doing what he is doing.

Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts.

The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach.
Talking up your book IS practicing what you preach. Would it have been more credible if he was 100% stocks?

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by macher » Fri May 22, 2020 6:42 am

vijaym73 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm
Everyone,

IGNORE THE NOISE !!

TURN OFF CNBC, BLOOMBERG, etc. etc. !!

I make it a point every friday to put a fixed amount into VOO (taxable account)-- dont care if the market is up or down. I have 20 years ahead of me

My wife's portfolio -- 403B/457B/401A are either in a large cap fund or S+P 500 -- again, not deviating from that.

My portfolio I have more risk -- 100% is in PSLDX (this is in my 401K) -- again i just add every 2 weeks when i contribute

Just keep it simple and ignore everything else. Please, dont try to market time anything

thanks and stay safe

VJ
Yep my portfolio is 65% Russel 3000 Index fund 35% TiAA Traditional and I contribute weekly. I stay the course annd I’m not looking back or predicting the market. This is my retirement account and have 14 years to do. I’m expecting a 3.5% with this allocation going forward.

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Random Musings
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Random Musings » Fri May 22, 2020 6:43 am

Tepper is a CMU dude who trades for a living. Everytime I see these big money players making comments about the market, I make the assumption that they are doing it for their benefit, not ours. No different than when Goldman Sachs publicizes their market calls. Stick with you plan.

I find it humourous that S Orman is now a self proclaimed market timer.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by galawdawg » Fri May 22, 2020 8:50 am

maxInfo wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:06 am
David Tepper?

He is actually a stock picker.

You aren’t doing what he is doing.

Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts.

The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach.
Talking up your book IS practicing what you preach. Would it have been more credible if he was 100% stocks?
Well since your only post since receiving all of the advice and wisdom here was this one, perhaps you should stick to Tepper and see how it works out for you. In that case, you would select your option B from your original post:
B) Stick to the original logic (which is even more compelling now), and wait for a reversal of the "bear market rally"
But please be sure to stop back in about ten years and let us know how the "Tepper Strategy" has worked out for you! :happy

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by OldSport » Fri May 22, 2020 8:51 am

I'm also surprised the market has behaved the way it did. I looked into it.

For this particular black swan scenario, it made some logical sense for the following to occur:
- Online retail places like Amazon and Walmart should outperform the broad market
- Technology providers like Microsoft, Google, Netflix should be much less impacted
- Anything travel or hospitality related would tank - airlines, hotels, cruises, tours, restaurants, gaming
- Anything transportation related would tank - cars, oil
- Small businesses would certainly tank
- Commercial REIT would certainly tank
- Certain market sectors would definitely tank - International, most value stocks, any non-essential retail or any retail with no or minimal online presence.

I think the broader market has performed the way it has due to sector shifts to the larger tech and online retail companies. Trillions in stimulus also had something to do with it. Looking at individual companies, there have been significant differences in performance. A good tactical active management would have been helpful in this case, but those are few and far between, and even fewer over a long period of time.

The market behavior makes a compelling argument for the Boglehead "stay the course" with a 2 or 3 fund portfolio.

Other indexes outside the S&P 500 are not faring so well. US small, mid, anything International, REIT have all significantly underperformed this year relative to S&P 500.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by anoop » Fri May 22, 2020 8:57 am

Some people made billions during this pandemic
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrad ... 8956685315

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by apex84 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:42 am

Having an investment plan that requires you to make investment changes or take actions can be tough to execute. Even the seemingly simple 2/3/4-fund portfolio requires constant tweaks to direct new investments and occasional trades for rebalancing.

Stocks are more volatile than bonds so there are going to be lots of years when they have gone up and it seems like bonds are bad and times when stocks have gone done and it seems like risks are too high. When stocks go up or down, mistakes get made in terms of maintaining the portfolio allocation.

The forum is full of debates on the merits of different asset classes/sectors. Over the years this has included international, emerging markets, micro caps, REITs, real estate, commodities, gold, factors, value, small cap value, and others. Any portfolio that has many individual parts to manage means that you might be not know what to do or how to reconcile what you read, hear, hope for, and fear with the actions you take.

We have access to great 1-fund portfolios in the Target Date series and the LifeStrategy series that allow you to pick a broadly diversified portfolio and eliminate the need to manage portfolio itself. This makes sticking to the plan easier, but you still need a plan.

In addition to these steps, I highly recommend reading books. Don't worry about the portfolio details or recommendations in the books, that is taken care of by the 1-fund portfolio. The importance of reading books is in learning about market history, human behavior, and the nature of cycles

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... -one-funds
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews
Last edited by apex84 on Fri May 22, 2020 10:14 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by sorethumb » Fri May 22, 2020 9:56 am

I found this here, reference it when the headlines howl, and share it with friends and family:

Image

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by jvini » Fri May 22, 2020 10:18 am

I really can't stand Jim Cramer and I think he's a dangerous hypocrite since he called a depression then keeps changing his mind every time the market makes a move up or down, but this article was in my feed and it seems to make sense.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cra ... s-15327131

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by EddyB » Fri May 22, 2020 10:22 am

grobertj wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:44 am
I'm retired. I did the same thing about a month ago after my portfolio had dropped about 12%. I recently talked to Vanguard and have decided to reinvest with a conservative portfolio. I've got enough money for spending this year in an Ally savings account which pays 1.25%. I have another 2 years spending in the Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund Admiral Shares (VUSFX) which is safe and should pay more than a money market. I've invested the bulk of my savings in the Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fun (VTINX) which has around 30% stocks and 70% bonds. I, too, am concerned that we''ll see another big dip in the stock market. After I feel comfortable that the economy is back on track, I plan to invent in more stocks.
Is your intent to spend from the savings account and ultra-short bond fund over the next few years, making your portfolio more aggressive in that time, as well?

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri May 22, 2020 10:23 am

carolinaman wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:27 am
RadAudit wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:23 am
maxInfo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:32 pm
I went all cash in my retirement plans (401a,403b,457b) based on Tepper's call last Wed, that the market is the most overvalued he's ever seen except in 1999. ... Granted that the market portfolio continues to offer the greatest reward per unit of risk, you could argue that the going "reward" just isn't enough. After holding firm through the entire debacle (and making regular payroll contributions into the indexes), it seemed stupid to risk everything for the prospect of making some extra peanuts (5-10%).
You are way too concerned about a 5% fluctuation in portfolio value. Not that I haven't been there long before you. I found out my AA was too aggressive for me in every major down turn before this one in the last 20 years. Moved the stock allocation down by 10% each time. (This time it was just an interesting number. Just worth a passing comment at the breakfast table and roll on.)
jakehefty17 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:04 am
Surrender yourself to a 10-step program.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
BTW, who's Tepper?

Edit - Changed the link
Tepper is the new owner of our Carolina Panthers. Supposedly a very successful hedge fund manager worth around $10B I think.
where are the customer's yachts?
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by dwickenh » Fri May 22, 2020 10:24 am

Selling all equities and going to cash is a mistake. I can't sugar coat it and give you several reasons you did the right thing. You probably need someone besides yourself handling those decisions and you will pay extra to get that type of help. Over the long haul, the extra expense will likely save you from yourself. Don't be embarrassed by it, just learn from it for next time. You are not alone in making these type of decisions.

Best to you,

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Fri May 22, 2020 10:27 am

anoop wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:41 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:36 pm
no clue who Tepper (?) is. Taffer? Trapper John? Jack Tripper?
https://www.businessinsider.com/david-t ... 013-8?op=1
trapper john mcintyre?
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... n+mcintyre

trapper keeper?
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... per+keeper
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

apex84
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by apex84 » Fri May 22, 2020 11:10 am

Talking up your book means putting out information that benefits you, while keeping both your positions and intentions to yourself. Going on CNBC or writing a web article are great ways to do this.

If you want to buy a stock, you talk about how poor the outlook looks and how it's a horrible investment so you can get a better price. If you want to sell a position, you talk about how great it is and how it's poised for market-beating returns and could be the next mega-winner so you can get a better price.

Even if you invest with a company, there is no reason to think the company isn't making trades that benefit them and hurt you in other accounts.
maxInfo wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:06 am
David Tepper?

He is actually a stock picker.

You aren’t doing what he is doing.

Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts.

The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach.
Talking up your book IS practicing what you preach. Would it have been more credible if he was 100% stocks?
Last edited by apex84 on Fri May 22, 2020 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Snowjob » Fri May 22, 2020 11:31 am

petulant wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:46 pm
awval999 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:19 am
awval999 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:31 am
awval999 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:45 am
Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do?
Default 80/20.
Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks.

At -10% I'm at 85/15
At -20% I'm at 90/10
At -30% I'm at 95/5
At -40% I'm at 100/0

I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20.
It's written in my IPS.

This morning I executed the second tranche.

It's easy to do at 34. Don't know if I'd want to do this at 54. Although I'd have plenty more bonds at 54.
I executed the 3rd tranche on Friday March 20th. At that time I was 95/5.

Yesterday I capitulated and sold all quarter-million dollars of our life savings - my 403b - into VMFXX (Vanguard Money Market fund). I hit click at 3:55pm at work.

Watching the stock market go up was harder then watching it go down.

I know I have sinned. But the things I fear that come from this cannot be posted on Bogleheads.

I was able to come home, kiss my wife and my child, and be able to sleep soundly.
This is me. You're not alone.

I sold it all over a month ago at the equivalent of VTI $142 / SPY $284.
But I've been on Bogleheads for nearly a decade. I ripped up my IPS and did exactly what it said not to do. I knew not to do it.

First, take some reflection on why you did what you did. It's OK to admit you did it on other's thoughts of valuation.

As Suze Orman says, "Stand in your Truth". So here's mine. I am the sole breadwinner in our family with an 18 month toddler. At the time we had approximately $2000 in emergency fund "cash" while maxing out the 403b and HSA along with a 15 year mortgage. Otherwise debt free. But my hospital was hemorrhaging money (as all are). The stock market was making no sense. I bought all the down, exchanging bonds for stocks, and held until what I deemed was a good recovery. I looked and we were back at August 2019 prices. But I was scared, and I wanted to defend my family and our savings. I remember thinking, I was happy then, on vacation, we were at Ocean City, not a care in the world. I knew the Cares Act passed and if necessary, I would be able to take out money penalty free from the 403b. So I capitulated.

One week later our hospital announced 20% furloughs for non-clinical staff (I am clinical), temporary 90 day pay reductions of 10-20% for senior level leadership (I am not senior level), suspension of 403b matches and elimination of 2020 raises.

I know long term I need to get back in. I can't hold $250,000 in money market forever. Do I dollar cost average back in once monthly? I continue to max my 403b and all new contributions are invested 100% in equities. I don't have the answers yet.

Over the last month I've made great progress on the emergency fund end with sale of individual stock from "fun money account", stimulus check and spending less. It's at $10,000 now. I also have to admit my life and my responsibilities are different from when I wrote my original IPS in 2011. I was single, living in a downtown apartment, with no kids.

I don't have answers for you, but I'm here to talk it through. There's many more like us out there. Many of my successful millennial friends. There's a lot of cash on the sideline.
Thank you for sharing your story. I actually think you made the right moves in response to your situation. The reality of the situation was that you figured out real fast your emergency fund was not enough, and you took steps to protect your family. This is exactly why I recommend investors who are accumulating for retirement have a separate emergency fund in an accessible account that makes them sleep well at night so that they don't have to worry about what's happening with their long-term portfolio in the 403(b) or 401(k) or what have you.
Honestly I kinda agree -- employment situation is way worse than in 2008, your seeing furloughs close to home with your job. Higher risk as the single earner, house, kid etc etc. I trade around the markets and have typically added to positions during times of stress but as this has unfolded I'm taking $$ of the table. I'm basically even for the year and after adding to positions on the way down i'm slowly scaling out a little bit. I've also drawn a line of credit from the house to add cash to an emergency pile just in case things get substantially worse. I'm in my 30's also and see such a long time horizon it hurts to have extra cash but at the same time, its not an expensive time to raise it. Better now than 2 months ago that's for sure!

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by hudson » Fri May 22, 2020 11:37 am

sorethumb wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:56 am
I found this here, reference it when the headlines howl, and share it with friends and family:

Image
sorethumb,

Thanks for the card! I agree with the one about selling low and buying high.
The rest are talking about past history and might be facts about the past.
Stocks may or may not beat inflation.
I think it's fine to check your account every day; maybe that advice is for the new investor? One could miss out on a tax loss harvest opportunity.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by BW1985 » Fri May 22, 2020 11:50 am

maxInfo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:32 pm
Now, very upset that I missed out on a 5%+ rally.
You had to know that was a possibility, right? Anytime you market time you're gambling that the market will move lower and that you will pull the trigger if it does. The question you need to answer is do you want to keep gambling.
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by LadyGeek » Fri May 22, 2020 11:50 am

I removed an off-topic post and reply. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by hudson » Fri May 22, 2020 12:25 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 2:53 pm
I got out in early 2008 and never got back in. :)
me too...but not early enough...

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by 1789 » Fri May 22, 2020 12:40 pm

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:44 am
My advice:
1. Put most of your money into a Total Stock index fund immediately, and the balance into a Total Bond index fund.
2. Stop reading financial websites and listening to financial podcasts.
3. Delete all stock market apps from your smart phone so you can't follow the daily zig and zag of the market.
This always works, imo.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by dallasguru » Fri May 22, 2020 12:49 pm

even the famous Ken Moraif gave sell signal ....he moved all his clients money to 100% cash.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by anoop » Fri May 22, 2020 12:54 pm

hudson wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 12:25 pm
anoop wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 2:53 pm
I got out in early 2008 and never got back in. :)
me too...but not early enough...
Pure luck in my case, it was around 02/2008.

Ever since then, because of fed intervention, it's become nearly impossible to assess the value of any investment whether real-estate, stocks, or bonds.

Right now stocks are expensive even going by current earnings which are likely to decline over the next several quarters. Add to that enormous amounts of debt taken, even when not needed, to engage in financial engineering. And then we have the fed buying that debt! Most people only look at P/E without looking at debt. As if that wasn't enough many companies are suspending buybacks (exponential drop in earnings) and in some cases reducing or eliminating dividends.

The only reason to own stocks is "do not fight the fed". It is a powerful reason, but I think that I'm already leveraged in stocks without owning any (see below).

Back to the GFC -- I didn't get back in because there was always negative news at the time -- Dow will drop to 1000, QE won't work, etc. But there was fed intervention like never before (which we now take as normal) -- they did QE1 and it faltered which led to QE2 which faltered which led to QE3. And then there was operation twist. So eventually something "worked" and the stock market reached escape velocity. They started raising rates, but quickly had to reverse course (pre-dates the pandemic).

At this time, my logic for not getting in is:

- Stocks look overvalued by any measure -- P/E, debt, etc.
- The value of my house depends on the market.
- Having a job depends on the market.
- The compensation I receive depends on the market (bonus, RSU, and at this point even pay itself given that execs at various companies are taking pay cuts).
- I am at an age (almost 50) and with health issues where forced early retirement or significant drop in income due to a move down in job are distinct possibilities.
- I have saved enough that I can probably get by with a very simple lifestyle without any "additional" stock exposure.

So basically my IPS says 0/100 and I'm not timing the market. haha

ZIRP/NIRP has thrown a bit of a monkey wrench in my plan, but so far, I am not able to find an alternative that I'm comfortable with.

(I did buy a small amount of INTC just as play money in 2014/2015 with the intention of never selling. It's in an industry that I think I understand and it seemed undervalued. I've held on to it so far.)
Last edited by anoop on Fri May 22, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by F150HD » Fri May 22, 2020 12:57 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:27 am
anoop wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:41 pm
F150HD wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:36 pm
no clue who Tepper (?) is. Taffer? Trapper John? Jack Tripper?
https://www.businessinsider.com/david-t ... 013-8?op=1
trapper john mcintyre?
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... n+mcintyre

trapper keeper?
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... per+keeper
laughed until it hurt :D

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by index245 » Fri May 22, 2020 1:41 pm

I think a diversified all-in-one fund would be helpful for you, less tempting to sell if things tank. If they don't, you'll still be fine.

Some good options...

Wellesley Income
Vanguard Balanced Index
Vanguard Lifestrategy Moderate Growth (or Income)
Vanguard Target Retirement (not matching your retirement date, look for one with a higher percentage of bonds)

Something like this can be held long term and avoid behavioral errors.

Your selling may or may not pay off in this instance, but long term something like this can help avoid a large behavioral mistake in the future. Best of luck to you!

OldSport
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by OldSport » Fri May 22, 2020 5:44 pm

index245 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 1:41 pm
I think a diversified all-in-one fund would be helpful for you, less tempting to sell if things tank. If they don't, you'll still be fine.

Some good options...

Wellesley Income
Vanguard Balanced Index
Vanguard Lifestrategy Moderate Growth (or Income)
Vanguard Target Retirement (not matching your retirement date, look for one with a higher percentage of bonds)

Something like this can be held long term and avoid behavioral errors.

Your selling may or may not pay off in this instance, but long term something like this can help avoid a large behavioral mistake in the future. Best of luck to you!
Problem with Target Retirement and Lifecycle is that Vanguard has 40% of equities International. International has consistently underperformed over long periods of time. Sure it has and will outperform some of the time, but long term I see anything >20% International being a portfolio drag with increased volatility.

Balanced Index or Wellington may be good one fund options.

index245
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by index245 » Fri May 22, 2020 11:40 pm

OldSport wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:44 pm
index245 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 1:41 pm
I think a diversified all-in-one fund would be helpful for you, less tempting to sell if things tank. If they don't, you'll still be fine.

Some good options...

Wellesley Income
Vanguard Balanced Index
Vanguard Lifestrategy Moderate Growth (or Income)
Vanguard Target Retirement (not matching your retirement date, look for one with a higher percentage of bonds)

Something like this can be held long term and avoid behavioral errors.

Your selling may or may not pay off in this instance, but long term something like this can help avoid a large behavioral mistake in the future. Best of luck to you!
Problem with Target Retirement and Lifecycle is that Vanguard has 40% of equities International. International has consistently underperformed over long periods of time. Sure it has and will outperform some of the time, but long term I see anything >20% International being a portfolio drag with increased volatility.

Balanced Index or Wellington may be good one fund options.
Yeah, depends on preference. Some prefer the diversification of including international equities. To each their own.

Either way, I think the OP would be better served with a one fund approach. Two huge bonuses: (1) less likely to panic sell and (2) Vanguard re-balances for you. A win for most of us!

bayview
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by bayview » Sat May 23, 2020 8:23 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:51 am
carolinaman wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:27 am

Tepper is the new owner of our Carolina Panthers. Supposedly a very successful hedge fund manager worth around $10B I think.
So a basketball team owner has any clue about investment advice? Sort of like Mark Cuban, except nobody's heard of him? (and for the record, I think Cuban is a clown)
Hey, he’s a FOOTBALL team owner. Geeze. No one would listen to a basketball team owner...
maxInfo wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 am
...
Welcome to the forums.

Ok, here’s what I think you should do, as you appear to be somewhat paralyzed right now.

Put everything into either the Vanguard LifeStrategy Income Fund (VASIX) or the Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund (VTINX). Both are balanced funds and very conservative (VASIX more so.) Both are blended funds, so you don’t get that nauseating feeling of watching individual assets do their roller-coaster imitations. They aren’t perfect, but they’re reasonably safe, and at least you’re back investing while figuring things out.

There. You have your money back working for you. You don’t have to wait on the sidelines while trying to figure out what would be perfect.

Now that you don’t have to agonize about when and how to get back in, you can start to figure out how you want to structure things for the future. It looks like you would “sleep well at night” with less exposure to stocks, so start to create a SWAN portfolio that does this. Write down your thoughts about how you construct your portfolio, WHY you made the choices that you did, projections of what will happen to your totals when (not if) the next big drop hits, what constraints you will place on yourself (30 day wait, 60 day wait, etc.) before making any changes, and so forth. <— This is your IPS, Investment Planning Statement.

Then, invest according to your IPS. Statistics favor lump sum, but I know that makes me queasy. If you’re going to go in more gradually, move 30% to your new plan, and then the rest in 10% chunks every month until you hit 100%.

Or hand it to PAS to manage for you, although you will still need some sort of personal circuit breaker to prevent yourself from demanding that they sell it all again.

This sort of thing happens to many at some point. It’s like we have to touch the hot stove to really learn.

I’m slightly envious of your 5% drop. I decided at the end of February That this would be a good time to do some Roth conversions, so that I could move more shares over per dollar taxed, so I requested a partial rollover from my TSP (Fed version of 401(k)) to a newly created empty trad IRA account. By the time all the paperwork was processed, TSP pulled the money on March 20. :annoyed Yes, I locked in a 15% or so (forgot the number) loss of funds and tax-advantaged space. :annoyed :annoyed I bought back in through the IRA, cursing fluently, but I’m still out a good chunk of change. Not much I can do about it now, although I now know better how to do future TSP withdrawals.
Last edited by bayview on Sat May 23, 2020 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

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Toons
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Toons » Sat May 23, 2020 8:26 am

Pick an asset allocation
Adjust periodically (small steps infrequently)
Stick To It
For Decades,Decades
It Works
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

bugleheadd
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by bugleheadd » Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am

Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned

Leesbro63
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Leesbro63 » Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am

bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?

anoop
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by anoop » Sat May 23, 2020 11:17 am

Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?
Think only positive thoughts!

bugleheadd
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by bugleheadd » Sat May 23, 2020 11:21 am

Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?
Repeat every week until you get assigned. It's not like the sp500 can climb a hundred percent a year. On a good year like 2019 it goes up 30%. You can still get like 25+% a year returns collecting premiums if you don't get assigned

Leesbro63
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Leesbro63 » Sat May 23, 2020 11:33 am

bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:21 am
Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?
Repeat every week until you get assigned. It's not like the sp500 can climb a hundred percent a year. On a good year like 2019 it goes up 30%. You can still get like 25+% a year returns collecting premiums if you don't get assigned
Sorry but I'm not buying it. If that strategy really beat the market regularly, everyone would be doing it. My guess is that this works until it doesn't. You end up behind the game on big market run-ups that you miss.

Leesbro63
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Leesbro63 » Sat May 23, 2020 11:35 am

bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:21 am
Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?
Repeat every week until you get assigned. It's not like the sp500 can climb a hundred percent a year. On a good year like 2019 it goes up 30%. You can still get like 25+% a year returns collecting premiums if you don't get assigned
And, OK, you get assigned. The you have to sell more puts. And you could get assigned again. Rinse and repeat, consistently going against you for a long time. You end up with lots of "going down stock" compared to your assigned (purchase) price.

bugleheadd
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by bugleheadd » Sat May 23, 2020 11:40 am

Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:35 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:21 am
Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:04 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am
Sell puts to get back in the market. You can make a few thousand weekly if you have a good chunk of cash ( at least 6 digits) lying around, until you get assigned
What if the market melts up or keeps climbing?
Repeat every week until you get assigned. It's not like the sp500 can climb a hundred percent a year. On a good year like 2019 it goes up 30%. You can still get like 25+% a year returns collecting premiums if you don't get assigned
And, OK, you get assigned. The you have to sell more puts. And you could get assigned again. Rinse and repeat, consistently going against you for a long time. You end up with lots of "going down stock" compared to your assigned (purchase) price.
I meant when assigned just hold on to the sp500 shares long term. Not continue by selling naked puts

BalancedJCB19
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by BalancedJCB19 » Sat May 23, 2020 11:41 am

As John Bogle has said many times. Never all in or all out of the market. He also said going all in one day and going all out the next means you are going to have a long and hard investing lifetime. As other said, pick an investment allocation that you can stick with through thick and thin (especially thin) and ignore all the experts and don't even look at your account. A 60/40 or 50/50 asset allocation may be in order if you are going to do this going forward.

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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by Fallible » Sat May 23, 2020 11:45 am

maxInfo wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:06 am
David Tepper?

He is actually a stock picker.

You aren’t doing what he is doing.

Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts.

The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach.
Talking up your book IS practicing what you preach. Would it have been more credible if he was 100% stocks?
maxinfo, forget Tepper. He was just the trigger for your move to cash and not the cause, which was not first taking time to get the investing basics down, such as the Bogleheads' philosophy on having an overall plan and taking neither too much nor too little risk. Get those basics down.
John Bogle on his often bumpy road to low-cost indexing: "When a door closes, if you look long enough and hard enough, if you're strong enough, you'll find a window that opens."

rich126
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Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Post by rich126 » Sat May 23, 2020 11:48 am

maxInfo wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:32 pm
I have read some variant of this thread many, many times, but here goes. I went all cash in my retirement plans (401a,403b,457b) based on Tepper's call last Wed, that the market is the most overvalued he's ever seen except in 1999. His arguments made a lot of sense (also the bearish sentiments of Druckenmiller, Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, and many others). Granted that the market portfolio continues to offer the greatest reward per unit of risk, you could argue that the going "reward" just isn't enough. After holding firm through the entire debacle (and making regular payroll contributions into the indexes), it seemed stupid to risk everything for the prospect of making some extra peanuts (5-10%).

Now, very upset that I missed out on a 5%+ rally. Choose your adventure---do you:

A) Admit that you screwed up, buy back into TSM immediately, and forget it
B) Stick to the original logic (which is even more compelling now), and wait for a reversal of the "bear market rally"
C) Attempt to apply higher-Sharpe opportunities in taxable accounts (e.g., UPRO/TMF, timing models, or "optimized" buy-and-hold portfolios of individual stocks or sector ETFs)
D) Move into sectors/styles where you can still "buy low" (e.g., financials, small-cap value, mid-cap value, international)
E) Chase sectors/styles that have outperformed recently (tech, health care, large cap value, min vol, etc)
Now, very upset that I missed out on a 5%+ rally.
Getting upset at missing out on 5% is pretty extreme to me.5% in the market is pretty much nothing. If you can't (and most can't) just leave the money in the market and ignore swings, I've found the best option is trim and increase cash as the market rises and then use the cash when the market tanks.

Right now the market is mostly driven by technology stocks and those stocks that people believe are profiting from the WFH mode of operations. Of course when/if things return closer to normal those stocks will need to come down since the demand will be less.

I think if you are going to get upset at missing out on 5%, you are also going to get upset at losing 10-20+% and are going to struggle with investing.

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