Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

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core4portfolio
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by core4portfolio » Wed May 20, 2020 11:09 am

If US government replaces dollar with their own Crypto then i would buy as compelling reason.
Other than that, its a bet to play and not really compelling one
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amp
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by amp » Wed May 20, 2020 2:41 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:01 am
softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm
I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.
This is just how it became unstable, as I'm sure you already know. It's become a speculative collectible, and that has ruined the possibility that it will ever be currency.

When people say "People who think this can be currency are stupid" the true believers will say "yeah, but me and some other guys all got rich trading it with each other."

Well, guess what.
I see a lot of similarity between the current state of Bitcoin and the Iraqi Dinar scam.

In both cases, those who are buying have no interest in actually transacting in that currency (despite what they may say). They only want to hold it because they believe it will rise to an astronomical value and they will become rich.

SteadyOne
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Wed May 20, 2020 3:15 pm

am wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:43 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:39 pm
am wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:35 pm
I’ve been also speculating with <3% of assets making a killing on biotechs involved in covid response like Moderna, Inovio, Sorrento etc. Some crypto, bitcoin. Bought some beaten down energy and biotech etfs also killing it.
Have you, in fact, actually realized your gains?
The dollar amount is too small to matter and not worth realizing, if it was majority of my assets then I would stop playing the game with most of the money and try to be conservative.
If it’s too small to matter then it means nothing.
Last edited by SteadyOne on Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SteadyOne
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm

ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
“Every de­duc­tion is al­lowed as a mat­ter of leg­isla­tive grace.” US Federal Court

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm
happyisland wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 6:11 pm
typical.investor wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 4:20 pm
Second, use in Venezeuala has skyrocketed yes, but transaction amounts are very low.
Do you have a source for this? I live very close to Venezuela, and interact with Venezuelan immigrants on a daily basis, and I have never, ever heard of anyone using bitcoin.

(I totally agree with the gist of your post by the way, but I was curious if there is some uptick in bitcoin adoption here that I am not witnessing)
I didn't realize the industry was so massive before joining it. It's much bigger than people realize.

Xapo, an exchange focused on Latin America, has 1.5 million accounts.

Coinbase, the largest US Crypto Exchange, has more customers than ETrade.

Binance is less than 3 years old and has 14 million users.

Daily trading in Crypto now exceeds the value of the US Stock market, we think.

Total worldwide, we think 150 million accounts and growing rapidly.

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.

Of course, a good chunk of my net worth is in (as of yet unvested) employee shares of the startup I work for, so in that respect, I'm in pretty deep.
M2 is about 17.8 trillion. The market cap of all existing bitcoin is about $171 billion, or less than 1% of M2.

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nisiprius
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by nisiprius » Wed May 20, 2020 7:58 pm

core4portfolio wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:09 am
If US government replaces dollar with their own Crypto then i would buy as compelling reason. Other than that, its a bet to play and not really compelling one
Maybe it's worthwhile mentioning that the current national currency of Venezuela, the "sovereign bolivar," is pegged to a cryptocurrency, a stablecoin (I guess) called the petro. There are 3,600 sovereign bolivars to the petro. The petro itself is (supposedly) pegged to the price of a barrel of oil.

I cannot imagine anybody in their right mind voluntarily buying sovereign bolivars or petros.

Furthermore, the petro is a rather strange beast; Wikipedia's article on it cites sources that say
Venezuela legally allows and encourages the use of petro for virtually any payment including oil trade, taxes, fees, real estate, gasoline, flights and more. It is not actually possible to purchase anything with petros, none have been issued; there has never been a single purchase of any kind whatsoever, by anyone, using the petro.
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Valuethinker
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 21, 2020 5:40 am

softwaregeek wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 11:05 pm

I still wouldn't put my net worth in it. But probably half of the engineers I know here in Silicon Valley have a significant stake in it and several have the majority of their net worth in it.

Of course, a good chunk of my net worth is in (as of yet unvested) employee shares of the startup I work for, so in that respect, I'm in pretty deep.
I would take this as the biggest bear signal I ever heard. A bunch of techies trying to pick investments. What is the Price to Earnings Ratio of Bitcoin?

But, then, I lived through the dot com crash.

Two groups whose personal investment decisions are often suspect: Traders in the City/ Wall Street (their risk appetite is often ridiculous) and people in tech.

The stock you own in your employer is a form of employee compensation, with risk shifting from the company to you. It could be very valuable - we used to be paid in bank stock (shadow options) and in the 1990s, it was lucrative.

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am

SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.

typical.investor
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Thu May 21, 2020 9:29 am

ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am
SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.
So you invested $17,500.
Took out $15k.
And you are at $25k BTC now.

Nice. That type of strategy is the only way I'd do it.

I thought about say $10k. Put $5k in BTC and keep the rest in cash and rebalance. Like a 50/50 risk/safe portfolio.

The more I read though, the more I concluded it's not really a great payment system, and has too many risks. I can lose $10 and not worry about it, but the story just didn't persuade me.

Glad to see your investment paid off anyway.

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ohboy!
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:29 am
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:12 am
SteadyOne wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:42 pm
December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them.

viewtopic.php?t=128267

Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost $700k. How has the S&P compared?
How much did you invest in 2013?
Really not the point but Ill play your game even if you won’t play mine. I purchased in 2016. 20 BTC over the course of a year at an average cost of $850 per. Sold 5 of them at $15k each. Bought some mostly [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] coins with 10 of them. Still holding 5. You can do the math. Better than that I bought 200 Ethereum for $7, watched it go to $1400 in less than 2 years. Sold a good amount at $900-$1200 but holding the rest. I’ve netted a decent amount after taxes and current holdings are worth a good amount.
So you invested $17,500.
Took out $15k.
And you are at $25k BTC now.

Nice. That type of strategy is the only way I'd do it.

I thought about say $10k. Put $5k in BTC and keep the rest in cash and rebalance. Like a 50/50 risk/safe portfolio.

The more I read though, the more I concluded it's not really a great payment system, and has too many risks. I can lose $10 and not worry about it, but the story just didn't persuade me.

Glad to see your investment paid off anyway.
Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.

typical.investor
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by typical.investor » Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm

ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
Last edited by typical.investor on Thu May 21, 2020 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

oldfort
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by oldfort » Thu May 21, 2020 9:23 pm

According to this, a single bitcoin whale manipulated the market in 2017 to prop up bitcoin prices.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by SteadyOne » Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
So, looks like people in this thread invest negligible portion of their investment portfolios into these bitcoins. Not sure how representative this sample is is, but this will make no difference in retirement.
“Every de­duc­tion is al­lowed as a mat­ter of leg­isla­tive grace.” US Federal Court

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ohboy!
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Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Post by ohboy! » Fri May 22, 2020 10:38 am

SteadyOne wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:23 pm
typical.investor wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:06 pm
ohboy! wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:25 pm


Your math is way off. No clue how you came to $15k or $25k.
Sorry.

So you invested $17,500.
Took out $75k.
And you are at $45k BTC now.

Luckily you got to take advantage of the big run up. Now we have to see how the lawsuit against iFinex Inc., the parent company of Bitfinex and Tether, goes. Were Tether issued to drive up the price of bitcoin during its big run or not? We do know that Tether was previously claimed to be backed 1-1 with USD. Now we know that claim is dropped to 70% backed by unspecified assets (which could be alt coins). So it seems perhaps bitcoin was manipulated upwards.

Anyway, smart of you to take your profits out I think.
So, looks like people in this thread invest negligible portion of their investment portfolios into these bitcoins. Not sure how representative this sample is is, but this will make no difference in retirement.
Right now Im only holding ~10% of assets in crypto. Mostly BTC, ETH, LTC and BNB. But previously I had 10% in crypto and within 2 years, at the height of pricing, it was valued at 80% of my assets. Considering bitcoin was up 20x and Ethereum 150x a lot of people with small exposure had big impact to AA. Seems another similar bull run could affect retirement even with only 5-10% current allocation. Which in my mind is reason to have your feet wet. The barrier to entry is no higher than opening and funding a bank account.

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